截至 2025年9月15日，黄金快速上涨至 3674 美元/盎司，首次突破1980年通胀调整峰值。其主要原因是美国就业疲软，市场担忧美国经济基本 面，交易"低增长+高通胀"的滞胀逻辑，并提高了美联储降息的预期，叠加特朗普频繁施压美联储换人，市场质疑美联储政策的独立性。 一、我们认为虽然黄金长牛的逻辑仍在，但短期或存在回调风险。从交易指标上看： 1、黄金处在超买水平，波动可能加大。当前黄金14日RSI达78，已经超买至近10年超90%的分位水平，意味着或有部分止盈兑现离场。更重要的 是，相较于表现更为极致的RSI，全球ETF流量、现货和期货持仓等并没那么热。所以我们担心黄金交易短期过热，存在回调风险。 2、黄金ETF的资金流并未形成一致性趋势。从区域来看，近一个月，美国黄金 ETF 流入量较大，中国反而在流出。美国前三大黄金 ETF共流入 约 3670 亿美元，中国两只黄金 ETF 合计流出超 265 亿美元，成为全球唯一显著减持区域。从机构与散户行为来看，散户在边际增持黄金机构则 边际减持黄金。 4、Comex 黄金投机性净多头仓位回落。根据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC），投机性黄金净多头头寸快速下降，机 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in the week of September 8-12, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 5.3% [3] - A significant inflow of capital was observed, with net purchases from mainland investors through the "Hong Kong Stock Connect" reaching 60.8 billion HKD, nearly double the previous week [3] - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, driven by a rise in initial jobless claims to 263,000, has led to increased liquidity in the market, making Hong Kong stocks an attractive investment target [3][6] Group 2 - The rise in the Hong Kong market is attributed to three main factors: external liquidity easing, recovery of the Chinese mainland economy, and supportive local policies in Hong Kong [7] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in mainland China rose to 0.9% year-on-year in August, indicating a revival of domestic consumption and supporting the earnings outlook for Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong [6] Group 3 - In Southeast Asia, currency markets displayed a mixed performance, with the Thai Baht strengthening due to rising gold prices, while the Philippine Peso depreciated due to inflationary pressures from rising oil prices [9] - The differing currency movements among Southeast Asian nations highlight the impact of each country's economic structure and fundamentals, rather than solely the influence of the US dollar [11] Group 4 - Gold and oil prices have become focal points in the market, with gold representing a safe-haven asset amid recession fears, while oil prices indicate inflationary pressures [13] - The market's expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, benefiting its price, while also raising concerns about inflation that support oil prices [13][15] Group 5 - The interplay of geopolitical uncertainties, such as US-China tariff negotiations, has heightened market demand for safe-haven assets and concerns over supply chain disruptions [15] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is influenced by global liquidity, the economic fundamentals of China, and supportive policies in Hong Kong, while the divergence in Southeast Asian currencies reveals the underlying economic strengths of each country [15]

Core Viewpoint - Gold is experiencing its best performance since 1979, with prices rising over 39% year-to-date, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 12% increase, driven by economic uncertainty and inflation concerns [1][2][6]. Economic Uncertainty - Investors are increasingly drawn to gold due to various uncertainties, including the potential economic impact of tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine [3][4]. - Signs of economic weakening in the US, such as a struggling job market, have heightened fears of a possible recession, making gold an attractive hedge [4]. Inflation Concerns - The possibility of stagflation, characterized by stagnant growth and high inflation, is a significant concern for investors, as it complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [5][7]. - Historical data indicates that gold tends to perform well in environments where inflation is above 2% and the Fed is easing monetary policy [7]. Interest Rate Cuts - Expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are contributing to increased demand for gold, as lower rates typically enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like bullion [8].

周二，三大指数涨势暂歇，零售销售额表现稳健对交易影响不大，美国股市在历史高点附近欲振乏力。 随着市场等待预期中的美联储降息，美元汇率下跌，黄金价格盘中首次突破每盎司3700美元。 【美股】截至收盘，标普500指数下跌0.13%，报6606.76点；道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.27%，报 45757.9点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.07%，报22333.96点。甲骨文(ORCL.US)高开低走，收涨1.4%，特 斯拉(TSLA.US)涨2.8%，英伟达(NVDA.US)跌1.6%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.7%，阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)涨2.6%，蔚来汽车(NIO.US)涨8%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数跌397.68点，跌幅1.68%，报23336.07点；英国富时100指数跌86.48点，跌幅 0.93%，报9190.55点；法国CAC40指数跌78.71点，跌幅1.00%，报7818.22点；欧洲斯托克50指数跌 67.15点，跌幅1.23%，报5373.25点；西班牙IBEX35指数跌230.31点，跌幅1.50%，报15158.19点；意大 利富时MIB指数跌540.72点，跌幅1.26%，报42 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices paused their upward momentum, with the S&P 500 down 0.13% at 6606.76 points, the Dow Jones down 0.27% at 45757.9 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.07% at 22333.96 points, as retail sales showed steady performance [1] - European indices also experienced declines, with Germany's DAX30 down 1.68%, the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.93%, and France's CAC40 down 1.00% [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.68%, closing at 96.639, while the euro and pound strengthened against the dollar [3] Commodity Insights - Gold prices reached a new high, with futures rising to $3,688.90 per ounce, supported by expectations of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut [4] - Oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures up 1.93% to $64.52 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.53% to $68.47 per barrel [2] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales for August rose by 0.6%, exceeding expectations, partly due to tariffs raising product prices [5] - Industrial production in the U.S. showed minimal growth in August, with manufacturing output increasing by 0.2% [7] - The U.S. housing market is expected to benefit from lower mortgage rates and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, as indicated by the unchanged builder confidence index [8] Corporate Developments - Major U.S. tech companies announced plans to invest over $40 billion in AI infrastructure in the UK, with Microsoft committing $30 billion by 2028 and Google planning to invest $6.8 billion over the next two years [12] - PIMCO suggested that the Federal Reserve should halt the reduction of its mortgage-backed securities holdings to support the housing market [9] Analyst Ratings - Bernstein initiated coverage on Apple with an outperform rating and a target price of $290, while UBS raised its gold price targets for 2025 and 2026 [13]

来源：第一财经 黄金期货近期合约的价格再次创下历史收盘新高，在市场预期美联储即将降息的背景下继续上涨。黄金 期货上涨0.2%，至3,688.90美元/盎司，这已是近期合约连续第三个交易日创下历史新高。美国银行在一 份报告中表示，经济数据表明当前的金融环境对黄金有利。该行指出："对滞胀的担忧——通常利好黄 金——仍是贵金属市场参与者关注的焦点。"美国银行还表示，8月份2.9%的消费者价格指数（CPI）读 数同样对黄金构成支撑。"自2001年以来，在美国CPI高于2%且美联储实施货币宽松的情况下，黄金价 格从未出现下跌。" ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Risk sentiment has declined in Europe, leading to a general drop in stock markets after an initial rise earlier in the week, with UK companies facing downgrades impacting stocks like Haleon, easyJet, and Domino's Pizza [1] - The UK labor market shows signs of weakness, with job vacancies decreasing by 10,000 and an increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a stagnation in employment growth [2] - Despite a stagnant job market, wage growth remains high at 4.8%, although real wage growth adjusted for inflation is only 1%, suggesting a decline in actual income [2][3] Group 2: Interest Rates and Inflation - The UK interest rate futures market does not anticipate significant rate cuts despite the weakening labor market, with expectations of less than one cut by March and slightly over one cut by July [3] - High inflation combined with a weak labor market raises concerns about stagflation in the UK economy, complicating the economic outlook ahead of the budget [3] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Movements - The British pound has appreciated by 0.3% against the US dollar, reaching a two-month high, as the UK economy lacks support for rate cuts [4] - Gold prices have reached a new historical high, driven by a weaker dollar, with mining stocks like Fresnillo leading gains in the FTSE 100 index [6] Group 4: US Market Dynamics - Despite pressure on European markets, US stock indices are expected to rise slightly, with major tech companies like Tesla, Alphabet, and Oracle driving the S&P 500 to new highs [7] - The performance of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants has significantly influenced the market, with potential risks if the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting does not align with market expectations [7]

在美国特朗普政府的关税政策带来的经济不确定性和通胀担忧中，黄金价格创下了自1979年 中东"石油危机"以来的最大涨幅。 短期因素方面，美联储的降息信号吸引了短期投资者进入黄金市场，进一步推动了涨势。目前，市场普 遍预期美联储将在16日至17日举行的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上降息。实际利率降低会削弱 持有现金或债券等生息资产的吸引力，投资者更倾向于配置黄金以对冲通胀或经济不确定性，从而推高 其价格。 盛宝银行的大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森表示，截至9月初，对冲基金将其大宗商品净持仓的47%配置在 黄金上。 有分析称，此次上涨的背后"白宫因素"影响巨大，无论是小额还是大额投资者，都在涌向黄金，以保护 自己免受美国经济前景不确定性以及美国在全球经济中角色不确定性的影响。美国分析师将此称为"混 乱交易"，并且"才刚刚开始升温"。 分析称，特朗普政府的关税政策持续推行，推高了通胀，也搅乱了经济预测。特朗普政府声称能够立即 解决俄乌冲突或加沙冲突，但并未取得任何进展，也是周期性地加剧市场不确定性的因素。美元经历了 五十多年来最疲软的上半年。同时，白宫对美联储施加的压力正在威胁这个金融体系"压舱石"之一的独 立性。 ...

Economic Signals - The U.S. labor department revealed that non-farm employment data was overestimated by 910,000 jobs over the past year, averaging an overreport of 76,000 jobs per month [1] - August saw only 22,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate exceeding 4%, reminiscent of the data revisions before the 2008 crisis [2] - GDP growth of 3.3% in Q2 was driven by a drop in imports and consumption funded by savings, while business investment and exports declined [2] Market Reactions - Gold prices have reached a historical high when adjusted for inflation, surpassing the 1980 peak, with central banks purchasing 1,045 tons in 2024, indicating heightened risk aversion [4] - A significant number of executives are selling stocks, with 198 out of the top 200 transactions being sales, suggesting potential risks as insiders exit [4] - Money market fund balances have reached $7.4 trillion, nearly one-third of U.S. GDP, as investors prefer to earn 5% interest rather than invest in the stock market or real economy [4] Economic Conditions - One-third of U.S. states are experiencing economic decline, particularly energy and industrial states, while southern and larger states are propping up the economy [4] - Current economic indicators show signs of potential stagflation, with GDP growth near zero when adjusted for inflation, core inflation at 3% above target, rising unemployment, and declining real wages [7] Historical Context - The 1970s stagflation saw inflation peak at 13.5%, mortgage rates at 20%, and unemployment at 10.8%, with the stock market stagnating for 14 years [5] - Supply chain disruptions, similar to those during the oil crisis, are currently exacerbated by the pandemic, chip shortages, and geopolitical conflicts [5][6] Federal Reserve Dilemma - Market predictions suggest the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25-50 basis points, but historical lessons indicate that premature rate cuts can lead to a cycle of inflation resurgence [8] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between not lowering rates to avoid burdening households and the risk of reigniting inflation if rates are cut [8] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on low-interest-rate benefiting assets, such as AI technology stocks and real estate, which may see reduced borrowing costs [10] - Allocating 5%-10% of funds into physical gold or quality gold mining stocks is recommended as a hedge against risks during stagflation [10] - Maintaining 20%-30% cash reserves allows for opportunistic buying during market downturns, while diversifying investments across stocks, bonds, and gold can mitigate risks [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shift towards a fiscal-led era in the U.S. economy, driven by ongoing political pressures on the Federal Reserve and rising inflation due to tariffs, which may lead to gold replacing the dollar as the primary store of value [1][4]. Group 1: Economic and Market Dynamics - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 31.38% as of the end of August, marking its best performance since 1979, positioning it as one of the strongest asset classes for the year [1]. - The U.S. government's approach to the Federal Reserve is a significant factor in gold's recent rise and the dollar's continued weakness [1][2]. - The labor market data indicates a more severe economic slowdown than expected, while inflation data remains complex and concerning [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence and Political Pressure - The struggle for control over the Federal Reserve has significant implications for gold and the dollar, with President Trump’s actions raising unprecedented legal and constitutional questions regarding presidential power and central bank independence [2][3]. - The dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member due to alleged mortgage fraud has sparked concerns about the independence of the Fed, which has historically not seen such dismissals since its establishment in 1913 [2][3]. - The current political climate may lead to a more politicized Federal Reserve, potentially transforming it into a tool for the White House [3][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Gold Demand - Inflation risks are increasingly driven by monetary and fiscal policies rather than demand, which is favorable for gold [2]. - The anticipated rise in commodity costs due to tariffs is expected to increase inflationary pressures, further boosting gold demand as a hedge against purchasing power erosion [3][4]. - The potential for negative real interest rates, driven by fiscal policies and regulatory easing, may enhance gold's appeal as a store of value [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Global Financial System - The article suggests that the current dollar-centric global financial system may become unsustainable, with a shift towards gold as a neutral reserve asset [4][6]. - The increasing trust in gold over fiat currencies is evidenced by central banks accumulating gold reserves, highlighting its role as a stable alternative in a changing monetary landscape [4][5]. - The anticipated economic policies, including the "Great and Beautiful" Act and tax cuts, are expected to stimulate the economy, further supporting gold's upward trajectory [5][6].