Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, reflecting significant pressure on Chairman Powell's decision-making [1] - Former President Trump criticized Powell for being slow to act, highlighting the increasing burden of national debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion, with annual interest payments reaching $1.2 trillion [1] - The current economic situation presents a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, balancing high inflation, which remains at 3.4%, against rising unemployment, with July's job additions at only 114,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.3% [1][3] Group 2 - Analysts on Wall Street have noted that the current interest rate levels are suppressing the real economy, leading to decreased investment willingness among businesses and reduced consumer spending due to high credit card rates [3] - The strong dollar, resulting from stagnant interest rate expectations, poses a dual challenge for export-oriented industries [3] - The conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve highlights the clash between political objectives and economic realities, with the former seeking low rates to alleviate debt pressure ahead of the 2024 elections [3][5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's predicament reflects a broader anxiety among Western economies in the post-pandemic era, characterized by high debt, high inflation, and low growth, leading to the diminishing effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools [5] - Powell's challenge is emblematic of a critical question facing all developed economies: how to navigate the balance between political pressure and economic principles [5] - The outcome of this struggle may redefine the operational rules of the global monetary system, with alternative approaches, such as structural monetary policy tools from certain Eastern economies, potentially offering new solutions [5]

智通财经APP获悉，随着美国经济增长所面临的通胀持续高企、关税重压以及消费者支出等多重不确定性加剧，美国劳动 力市场正明显换挡走低——最新非农以及前几个月经过下修后的数据显示，过去三个月的美国就业增长急剧降温。对于美 联储降息预期而言，这份疲软且远不及预期的非农可谓推动降息预期大幅升温，当前利率期货市场押注9月与12月降息两 次，在疲软的非农公布前则是仅押注一次甚至押注不降息，但是对于华尔街多头以及全球股市而言，关于"8月股市抛售魔 咒"的第一块重要拼图已经就位。 根据美国劳工统计局周五公布的就业报告，美国7月非农就业人数仅仅增加7.3万人远不及经济学家普遍预期的11万人，而 此前两个月的增幅则合计被意外下调近26万人——这一下调幅度可谓令华尔街一片哗然，抛售情绪瞬间被点燃，空头势力 瞬间占上风。下修后的统计数据显示，过去三个月，平均每月仅新增3.5万个岗位，创新冠疫情以来最差表现。上月失业率 则小幅升至4.2%，与市场预期基本一致。 最新的非农就业数据进一步表明劳动力市场正出现更显著的疲软迹象。不仅非农就业增长明显放缓、失业率上升，此前公 布的失业金申请数据与裁员、职位缺口统计数据显示，美国的失业者们重新找 ...

Core Insights - The current U.S. tariff policy is projected to increase domestic prices by 1.8% in the short term, resulting in an average additional annual expenditure of $2,400 per American household [1][2] - This price increase is expected to push inflation levels close to double the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, significantly impacting consumer purchasing power, especially for low-income families [2][3] - The indirect effects of the tariff policy may persist for several years, potentially leading to delayed price adjustments and long-term economic consequences, such as reduced investment and job cuts in manufacturing [3][4] Economic Impact - The tariff policy is seen as a double-edged sword, providing short-term protection for certain domestic industries while increasing consumer costs and risking retaliatory measures from trade partners [4] - If the tariff policy continues until 2025, the average annual loss for American households could further escalate, prompting calls for policymakers to reassess the net benefits of tariffs [4] - Rising inflation pressures may compel the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive stance on interest rates, which could hinder corporate investment and job market recovery, exacerbating the risk of economic stagnation [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates soon despite pressure from President Trump, with expectations for a rate cut pushed to December [1][4] - The job market remains strong, and most Fed officials believe the economy can withstand higher rates, indicating a cautious approach to rate cuts [1][4] - The Chicago Fed's financial conditions index has dropped to a three-year low, suggesting a relatively loose financial environment [1] Group 2: Inflation Pressures - Current inflation rates in the U.S. are relatively low, with June's consumer price index rising by 2.7% year-on-year, and core CPI increasing by 2.9% [2] - Future inflation is expected to rise due to factors such as increased imports, labor shortages in key industries, and potential fiscal stimulus related to the upcoming midterm elections [2][3] - The impact of artificial intelligence on inflation is seen as a long-term factor, potentially lowering inflation pressure over time, but initial investments may raise costs [3] Group 3: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - Trump's ongoing pressure on Fed Chair Powell may not significantly alter Fed policy, as the independence of the Fed is protected by institutional frameworks [5][6] - The potential appointment of a shadow Fed chair by Trump could complicate Powell's position, especially if inflation rises in the coming months [5] - The risk of losing Fed independence is noted, which could lead to adverse effects on the economy and market if interest rates are kept too low [6] Group 4: Global Investment Trends - There is a shift in investor sentiment away from U.S. assets, with a more diversified asset allocation emerging as investors hedge against dollar risks [7] - The dollar index is expected to decline to around 95 by year-end due to slowing U.S. economic growth and rising inflation [7] - U.S. economic growth is projected to be below 2% potential growth, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [7] Group 5: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is projected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by over $3 trillion, raising concerns about sustainability given the current low unemployment rate [8] - The U.S. public debt is expected to remain high, with budget deficits projected to exceed 6% of GDP [8] - The demand for U.S. debt from foreign central banks is decreasing, leading to a more vulnerable bond market reliant on private sector investors [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy in 2025 is facing significant challenges, including a sharp decline in trade volume, weak consumer spending, inventory surplus, and monetary policy uncertainty, which may lead to deflationary downturns or even recession [1][13]. Trade Volume Decline - In May 2025, U.S. container imports fell to 2,177,453 TEU, a 9.7% decrease from April and a 7.2% decline year-over-year [2]. - Industry analyst John Macao predicts a potential 25% reduction in U.S. container shipping volume, equating to a $510 billion decrease in annual business activity [2]. - The decline in trade volume is attributed to global supply chain adjustments and policy uncertainties, with tariff instability prompting businesses to import early, leading to a "whipsaw effect" in trade data [2]. Port Activity and Inventory Management - The Port of Los Angeles experienced its busiest month in June 2025, with an 8% year-over-year increase in cargo volume, following significant declines in May [3]. - The fluctuations in port activity are driven by geopolitical and tariff policy changes rather than economic recovery, highlighting supply chain vulnerabilities [3]. - Companies are utilizing Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) to manage inventory levels, but this strategy may transfer risks to banks and financial institutions, increasing systemic risk if demand remains weak [4]. Consumer Spending and Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has significantly weakened, with the Conference Board's index dropping to a near five-year low in April 2025 [5]. - Retail sales growth was only 0.68% annualized in the first half of 2025, with actual retail sales declining by 1.75% in the second quarter, indicating a recessionary trend [6]. - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data also reflect a similar downward trend, with negative growth observed in early 2025 [6]. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.3% in June 2025, with a cumulative decline of 2.8% over six months, indicating a significant loss of economic momentum [7]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, reflecting concerns over inflation and growth [8]. - Market signals indicate a growing expectation for interest rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield stable at 4.35% and the 2-year yield dropping to 3.84% [8][9]. Global Trade Context - The decline in U.S. trade volume is part of a broader global economic slowdown, with the WTO revising its global goods trade growth forecast from 3% to -0.2% for 2025 [10]. - The tightening of global financial conditions and high external debt levels in developing countries create a "perfect storm," increasing the risk of debt crises [11]. Systemic Risks and Policy Uncertainty - The combination of inventory surplus and weak consumer demand poses significant risks to the U.S. economy, with estimates indicating the current inventory surplus is the largest since 2008 and 2020 [12]. - Frequent adjustments to U.S. tariff policies disrupt supply chains and erode business confidence, potentially leading to further declines in trade volume and consumer spending [13].

Group 1 - Schroders Investment remains optimistic about the stock market outlook, but is cautious about the risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. due to the lagging effects of tariffs on the real economy [1] - The primary constraint on the stock market is the rising debt levels resulting from increased government spending, which affects the bond market's capacity [1] - Despite rising debt levels, Schroders still views bonds as a favorable source of returns rather than merely a diversification tool, with gold being the preferred option for portfolio diversification [1][3] Group 2 - Recent expansionary fiscal policies have supported nominal economic growth and corporate earnings, while populist policies may have a positive impact on the stock market [2] - The greatest threat to the economic outlook is the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, with the effective tariff rate expected to rise to 12%, the highest level since World War II [2] - The market's reaction to new tariff threats has been muted, indicating that investors may be underestimating the potential for significant tariff increases by the Trump administration [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration continues to monitor the bond market, recognizing the importance of maintaining financial market stability, with inflation expectations remaining under control [3] - A notable steepening of the yield curve has been observed, with long-term bond yields rising faster than short-term yields, reflecting market concerns about fiscal spending [3] - The credibility of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the bond market, and the succession plan for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be a focal point for investors [3] Group 4 - The dollar maintains unmatched liquidity in the global financial system, prompting many institutions to reassess their dollar allocation strategies [4] - Despite the high exposure to U.S. assets, there is a growing recognition of the need for diversification in investment portfolios [4] - Investors should focus on medium-term trends rather than overreacting to daily news, as the political and economic consensus has shifted, affecting the correlation between different asset classes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with a rebound from 3247 to 3438 followed by a decline, primarily driven by changes in economic indicators and geopolitical tensions [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Movements - The initial rebound in gold prices was supported by a decline in the US dollar and a drop in 10-year Treasury yields, which reduced the cost for non-dollar investors to purchase gold [3]. - Increased risk aversion due to approaching tariff negotiation deadlines and ongoing geopolitical conflicts led to a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [4]. - Market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September enhanced gold's attractiveness, contributing to the price rebound [5]. Group 2: Key Reasons for the Subsequent Decline - A correction in the market's overly optimistic expectations for rate cuts occurred after strong economic data, including the PMI and CPI, indicated economic resilience, reducing gold's appeal [6]. - The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and Japan alleviated trade tension concerns, prompting a withdrawal of safe-haven investments from gold [8]. - A strong performance in the stock market, particularly the Nasdaq reaching new highs, shifted investor focus from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, further pressuring gold prices [8]. Group 3: Future Market Focus Points - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 will be crucial; a hawkish signal could lead to a drop in gold prices to around 3300, while a hint at a September rate cut might trigger a technical rebound [9]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Ukraine and trade dynamics between the US and Europe, will influence gold's safe-haven premium [10]. - The continuity of strong US economic data, including non-farm payrolls and PCE price index, will shape expectations for sustained high interest rates, impacting gold's market dynamics [11]. Group 4: Trading Strategy for Next Week - The market is currently in a triangular range, with a potential rebound expected if prices remain above the 3300 support level; the 20-day moving average at 3260 serves as a critical defense point [12]. - A trading strategy suggests buying in the 3310-3312 range with a stop-loss at 3300, targeting 3322-3324, while considering short positions in the 3351-3353 range with a stop-loss at 3363, targeting 3339-3341 [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The fear of returning to the "stagflation" era of the 1970s due to tariff-induced price increases is deemed incorrect by Clearwater Analytics' research head Matthew Jeffrey Vegari, as the current economic conditions do not exhibit high unemployment, a key characteristic of stagflation [1] Economic Growth and Unemployment - Although economic growth in the U.S. may face challenges in the next couple of years, the consensus indicates that high unemployment, a hallmark of stagflation, is currently absent [1] - The Federal Reserve's ability to cool down an overheating economy without triggering a recession is praised, suggesting effective monetary policy [1] Future Inflation and Employment Trends - There may be a future period where inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously, but it is asserted that the current Federal Reserve will prevent a situation as severe as that of the 1970s, and high inflation is not expected to persist [1]

Group 1: Market Outlook - Schroders Investment presents a macroeconomic outlook for global financial markets, highlighting the impact of potential tariff policies and changes in consumer behavior [1] - Asian stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks year-to-date, driven by increased investor interest in Asia, despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs [1] - The U.S. inflation is gradually declining, raising concerns about the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. job market remains resilient with active hiring, but there are indications that the market may be overestimating the Federal Reserve's dovish stance [1][2] - Global fiscal policies are shifting towards expansion, with increased defense spending outside the U.S. and policy changes like the "Inflation Reduction Act" [1] - Eurozone inflation has returned to the 2% target, but economic growth forecasts for 2025 continue to be downgraded [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Investment Strategy - The potential threat of new tariffs may lead to stagflation pressures, with consumers becoming more cautious in their spending [2] - Despite the risks, Schroders maintains a positive outlook on overall stock performance, focusing on broad allocations across different regions, particularly in the U.S. and European financial sectors [2] - The company emphasizes the importance of internal demand trends, stable corporate earnings, and a favorable interest rate environment for investment strategies [2] Group 4: Fixed Income and Credit Market - Schroders holds a neutral stance on overall bond duration, balancing the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve against fiscal deficits and supply pressures that may elevate long-term yields [2] - The company maintains a neutral view on the credit market, noting high valuations but stable technical fundamentals, with U.S. credit still favored by overseas investors [2] Group 5: Commodity Outlook - Schroders continues to favor gold as a traditional hedge against inflation, with strong demand expected as central banks increase their holdings [3] - The overall financial market outlook remains uncertain, prompting Schroders to adopt a cautious and flexible investment approach to capture resilient and potentially rewarding opportunities amid volatility [3]

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，在8月1日最后谈判期限前，他本人在设定所谓对等 关税税率时，税率不会低于15%，这表明特朗普政府加征关税的下限正在提高，从"解放日"导致市场暴 跌后的10%基准明显上行。 "我们将对他们实行15%到50%之间的直接且简单的关税。"特朗普当地时间周三在华盛顿一场全球聚焦 的人工智能峰会上表示。"有几个国家——之所以是50%，是因为我们与那些国家的关系并不太好。" 特朗普称对等关税起点为15%，是他试图对几乎所有美国贸易伙伴加征关税的最新变化，也再次表明他 有意更大力度地对尚未与华盛顿达成贸易合作框架的国家出口商品征收关税。 本月早些时候，特朗普表示全球150多个国家将收到一封信，信中会写明"可能是10%或15%，我们还没 完全决定"的关税税率。相比此前透露的预期可谓提升，美国商务部长霍华德·勒特尼克周日在接受CBS 新闻采访时表示，包括"拉美国家、加勒比国家及许多非洲国家"在内的贸易小国的基准关税将是10%。 而在4月首次宣布面向全球的对等关税时，特朗普提出对几乎所有国家统一征收10%的关税。 然而，对于股市等全球风险资产来说，在TACO策略推动下，市场对特朗普关 ...