Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil & Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply and demand, price trends, and policy impacts. It provides investment suggestions based on these analyses, such as considering buying at low prices for some products and being cautious about market uncertainties [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures contracts decreased with increasing positions. Short - term auction of domestic soybeans brought supply pressure, and weak demand depressed prices. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans rebounded from a low level. US soybean prices were strong despite high - record yields due to a decrease in area and lower ending stocks. Short - term attention should be paid to weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic futures market continued to decline with decreasing positions. Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern emerged due to biodiesel policies. In China, the supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in Q1 next year due to US tariff policies. Future weather in the US may challenge new - season crops. The relationship between US soybeans and domestic futures has weakened. If no trade agreement is reached by the end of this year, domestic soybean meal prices may rise. The medium - to - long - term outlook is cautiously bullish [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean prices were strong due to a decrease in area and lower ending stocks. Attention should be paid to the China - US soybean trade relationship. The US EPA's policy on small refineries may cause structural adjustments in biofuel demand. Indonesia's policies on palm oil may drive up prices. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in the production cycle. In the long - term, the development trend of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia remains. Investors can consider buying soybean and palm oil at low prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil price rose while the rapeseed meal price fell. The vegetable oil sector was boosted by the overnight overseas market. The demand for rapeseed oil in the biofuel fields of the US and the EU is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand is tight, and futures prices may continue to rise [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures contract showed a short - term adjustment trend. The auction of imported corn by CGSGB had a low success rate. The supply in Shandong is relatively sufficient. The weather in domestic corn - producing areas is favorable, and new - season production may increase. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The government announced a central frozen - pork purchase and storage plan, which led to a higher opening of the futures market. The supply of live pigs in the second half of the year is expected to be high, and the spot price may continue to decline. The policy aims to promote industry capacity reduction, but no inflection point has been seen yet. Attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policies [8]. Eggs - Egg futures prices dropped rapidly in the past month due to over - capacity in the industry and weak prices during the peak season. The industry has been in losses for four months. If egg prices remain weak during the peak season, there may be a significant capacity reduction, which could support prices next year. Investors can consider buying at low prices [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish/Short-term Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Pigs, Eggs (★☆☆), indicating a bias towards a rising or falling trend with drivers for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market [1]. - **Balanced/Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil (☆☆☆), suggesting short - term supply - demand balance and poor market operability, advising to wait and see [1]. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather, policies, and international trade situations. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Summary by Product Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures is weak due to increased supply from auctions and weak demand. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is rising. Attention should be paid to weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - In the next two weeks, low temperature and less rain in the US soybean - producing areas pose challenges to new - season crops. The global oil market's strength may boost soybean crushing. In China, the supply in Q4 and Q1 next year is affected by US tariff policies, with a possible supply gap in Q1 next year. The medium - long - term outlook for soybean meal is cautiously bullish [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic soybean and palm oil prices are in a correction. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in June. The market is concerned about the US EPA's decision on biofuel exemptions, which has pressured US soybean oil prices. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The supply side of the overseas rapeseed market is stabilizing, and the focus is shifting to the demand side. China's imports of Australian rapeseed are a hot topic. The supply of rapeseed is likely to be tight in Q4, and the futures price is expected to rise [5]. Corn - Cofco will continue to auction imported corn. The previous auctions had a low transaction rate. The supply of corn in Shandong is relatively sufficient. New - season Xinjiang corn is affecting market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [6]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures are in a weak oscillation. The supply in the second half of the year is high, and the price is expected to decline. Policy may support the price at a certain level. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when the price is high [7]. Eggs - Egg futures have reached a new low. The spot price is weak, and the futures price is still at a premium. The far - month contracts for the first half of next year are strong. Attention should be paid to the spot price and capacity reduction [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 56.25 to close at 1042.75 cents per bushel, a 5.7% increase; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 38 to close at 3083 yuan per ton, a 1.25% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2980 yuan per ton, a 2.05% increase; the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell 124 to close at 2649 yuan per ton; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 90 to close at 2530 yuan per ton, a 3.44% decrease [4]. - The US soybeans rebounded significantly from the weekly low. The main reasons were that the August report unexpectedly cut the area by 2.5 million acres, tightening the supply, which was bullish; the US soybeans were in the critical pod - setting period, and the recent weather forecast turned dry, which might have an adverse impact on crop growth; with the low - price advantage of US soybeans, other countries' procurement of new crops exceeded expectations; the crushing demand in July was strong, providing support. The soybean meal fluctuated and closed higher, with increased volatility. The influencing factors included Trump's post at the beginning of the week hoping that China would increase US soybean imports, the domestic market declined and then rebounded under the emotional impact; the bullish support of the USDA report, combined with the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed, tightened the long - term supply expectation [4]. - The cumulative precipitation in the US soybean producing areas in the next two weeks is lower than the average, which needs continuous attention. The USDA report cut the area and significantly raised the yield per unit. If the precipitation in the producing areas continues to be low, the yield per unit may be revised down. The US biodiesel policy is expanding, and the crushing demand is expected to remain strong, still supporting the price. The domestic short - term soybean and soybean meal supply is still available, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and be slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | 8/15 | 8/8 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1042.75 | 986.50 | 56.25 | 5.70% | Cents/Bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 489.00 | 485.00 | 4.00 | 0.82% | US dollars/ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 456.00 | 443.00 | 13.00 | 2.93% | US dollars/ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Futures Market | - 54.34 | - 42.65 | - 11.69 | - | Yuan/ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3083.00 | 3045.00 | 38.00 | 1.25% | Yuan/ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2649.00 | 2773.00 | - 124.00 | - 4.47% | Yuan/ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 434.00 | 272.00 | 162.00 | - | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3020.00 | 2940.00 | 80.00 | 2.72% | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2980.00 | 2920.00 | 60.00 | 2.05% | Yuan/ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 103.00 | - 125.00 | 22.00 | - | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The US soybeans rebounded significantly from the weekly low. The main reasons were the unexpected cut in area in the August report, the dry weather forecast during the pod - setting period, the strong procurement of new crops by other countries, and the strong crushing demand in July. The soybean meal fluctuated and closed higher, influenced by Trump's post, the bullish USDA report, and the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed. The rapeseed meal showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [8]. - The August USDA report was overall bullish, with a cut in the 2025/2026 US soybean planting area, an increase in yield per unit, a decrease in overall production, a decrease in new - crop export demand, an increase in old - crop export demand, and a decline in the 2025/2026 ending inventory. The US soybean growth indicators were in line with expectations, and about 3% of the planting area was affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the producing areas is expected to be lower than the average [9]. - As of the week of August 7, 2025, the US soybean export net sales in the current market year were - 378,000 tons, and the cumulative export sales in the 2024/2025 were 5.112 million tons, which had completed the USDA target. The new - crop export net sales in the 2025/2026 were 1.133 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 471,000 tons. China had not purchased new - crop US soybeans. The US soybean crushing profit and related prices showed certain changes, and the NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in July increased compared with June and July 2024. Brazil's August soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts were raised [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, the unexecuted contracts decreased, and the national port soybean inventory increased. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the national soybean meal daily average trading volume decreased, the daily average pick - up volume was stable, the main oil mills' crushing volume increased, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were stable [12]. - The US soybean producing area's precipitation needs continuous attention. The US biodiesel policy expansion will support the price. The domestic short - term supply is available, and the long - term supply is expected to be tight. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and be slightly stronger [13]. Industry News - In June 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.55 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.47 million tons of soybean meal and 930,000 tons of soybean oil, with ending inventories of 23.28 million tons of soybeans, 2.68 million tons of soybean meal, and 480,000 tons of soybean oil [14]. - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August were 2.77445327 million tons, with a daily average export volume 27% higher than that in August last year. Canada's June 2025 rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal exports were 651,106 tons, 223,217 tons, and 459,023 tons respectively [14]. - As of August 1, the US soybean, corn, and wheat unplanted areas were 1.199 million acres, 1.818 million acres, and 277,000 acres respectively. As of August 10, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports decreased compared with last year [15]. - The predicted 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production, planting area, and yield per unit increased compared with the previous year and the previous forecast. The Brazilian 2024/25 soybean production, crushing volume, export, soybean oil production, and soybean meal production forecasts were raised [16]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 50.2 million tons, a 2% upward revision [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF to - shore price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, soybean meal main contract trend, etc., to visually show the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal [19][25][28]

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Palm Oil Weekly Report" and dated August 18, 2025 [1][3] Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 224 to close at 4,478 ringgit/ton, a 5.27% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 414 to close at 9,394 yuan/ton, a 4.61% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 162 to close at 8,562 yuan/ton, a 1.93% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 233 to close at 9,807 yuan/ton, a 2.43% increase; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.79 to close at 53.22 cents/pound, a 1.51% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 9.5 to close at 660.5 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.42% decrease [4][5][7] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 270 to 9,300 yuan/ton, a 2.99% increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 110 to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 230 to 9,900 yuan/ton, a 2.38% increase [5] - The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 252 to - 832 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 181 to 413 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Market Performance - The domestic oil sector fluctuated and rose, with palm oil showing strength and rapeseed oil rising and then falling under policy influence. The long - term expansion of biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US supports the long - term demand for soybean and palm oil. Rapeseed oil has a global supply, and policies may change the trade pattern, with relatively weak demand growth expectations compared to soybean and palm oil, but there is an expectation of tightening domestic long - term supply [4][8] MPOB Report - In July, Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons. Production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons, and domestic consumption increased 6.63% to 483,000 tons [8] US Department of Agriculture Report - The US Department of Agriculture's August oilseed report shows that the global palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 80.736 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; the ending inventory is expected to be 15.034 million tons, a downward revision of 4,000 tons from last month's estimate; and exports are expected to be 46.163 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate. Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 24 million tons, and Malaysia's are expected to be 16.1 million tons, both unchanged from last month's estimates [9][10] Other Data - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased 17.27% month - on - month. From August 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared to the previous period [10] - India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June; sunflower oil imports were 200,010 tons, down from 216,141 tons in June; total vegetable oil imports were 1.579041 million tons, up from 1.549825 million tons in June; and soybean oil imports were 492,336 tons, up from 359,504 tons in June [11] - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3967 million tons, an increase of 35,600 tons from last week and 284,700 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 27,540 tons, down from 30,880 tons the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 690 tons, up from 437 tons the previous week [12] Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US - Russia presidential meeting ended, and the negotiation process may be difficult. The US retail sales in July increased 0.5% month - on - month, consumer demand remains resilient, the US dollar index fluctuates, and oil prices fluctuate within a narrow range. Fundamentally, Malaysia's export demand has increased significantly, Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented with low inventory, and Malaysia's inventory build - up in July was lower than expected. In the short term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly [4][13] Industry News - Indonesia's trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the "Domestic Market Obligation (DMO)" plan to lower prices, with a monthly DMO level of 175,000 tons by the end of the year [14] - Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory to remain high in the near term. RHB Investment Bank believes that production will increase before the peak season, demand will improve, inventory will continue to increase above 2 million tons, palm oil prices will decline in Q3 and rise in Q4. Maybank Investment Bank also expects higher palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia in 2025 [15] - Indian traders estimate that in the 2024/25 season, soybean oil imports may increase 60% to 5.5 million tons, palm oil imports may decrease 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, sunflower oil imports may decrease 20% to 2.8 million tons, and total edible oil imports may increase 1% to 16.1 million tons [15] - Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange this year through the use of palm - based biodiesel. As of June, 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel have been distributed, and the goal of distributing 13.5 million kiloliters in 2025 is half - completed [16] Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, the three major oils, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as charts on inventory, production, and export volume of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of the three major oils in China [17][19][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that due to a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a significant decline. The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, ranging between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices rose. The August supply - demand report increased the yield forecast, but the reduction in the planted area exceeded market expectations. The tightening of the old - crop balance sheet also supported the price. Next week, the focus will be on the US tariff - imposing situation on other countries and the weather in the US main production areas [7]. - This week, US soybean meal prices continued to rebound. The reduction in the new - crop planted area exceeded market expectations. Although the yield increased, the supply - demand balance sheet tightened, supporting the price [10][11]. - This week, US soybean oil prices were in a sideways oscillation. On one hand, the sharp rise in US soybeans supported the soybean oil price. On the other hand, the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy led to a large - scale liquidation of the "buy oil, short meal" arbitrage positions, resulting in a stronger meal and weaker oil situation [15]. - As of the week ending August 1, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.48 per bushel. As of August 1, the purchase price at a farm (Iowa) was $9.37 per bushel, showing a decline. As of August 7, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.59 per bushel, also declining. The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 119.34 reais per bag. As of August 15, the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 140.99 reais per bag [17][19][24] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean production areas continued to improve, with a drought rate of 23% compared to 13% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US production areas will be basically normal. Precipitation will be relatively high in the Great Lakes region but relatively low in the central and southern regions. There will be basically no precipitation in Brazilian production areas, while precipitation in Argentine soybean production areas will be slightly above normal. As of the week ending August 8, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, down from 69% last week but the same as the same period last year [29][31][40] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of August 8, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.1 per bushel, up from $2.71 last week. The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 533,100 tons, down from 689,500 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 518,000 tons, down from 612,500 tons last week. The net sales volume this year was - 377,600 tons, down from 467,800 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 1.133 million tons, up from 545,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [43][45][53] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.653, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of August 12, the net short position of soybeans was 20,100 contracts, down from 48,300 contracts last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 55,800 contracts, down from 67,700 contracts last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 78,100 contracts, down from 104,200 contracts last week [56][58][64]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term trend of domestic oils is expected to diverge, with soybean oil anticipated to remain strong due to various factors including weather conditions and international policies [1] Group 1: Weather Impact on Soybean Growth - Weather forecasts indicate below-average rainfall in the eastern corn belt and northern Great Plains over the next two weeks, which may affect soybean growth [1] Group 2: International Policies and Demand - The U.S. biodiesel policy is expected to positively influence U.S. soybean oil demand, while Brazil has raised its biodiesel blending ratio and Indonesia's B40 implementation is progressing well, both of which are favorable for domestic oils [1] Group 3: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - MPOA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production is projected to increase by 9.01% for July, with an estimated inventory of 2.25 million tons, a 10.8% increase from June, and production of 1.83 million tons, an 8% increase from June [1] - Export volume for palm oil is expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% increase from June, but high-frequency data suggests an increase in production and a decrease in exports, raising concerns about potential inventory accumulation [1] Group 4: Domestic Oil Inventory and Trade Relations - Domestic canola oil inventory has slightly decreased but remains at historically high levels, and improved trade relations between China and Australia may lead to increased canola seed imports from Australia [1] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - Overall, due to the expected accumulation of Malaysian palm oil and favorable international biodiesel policies, the domestic oil market is likely to experience a divergence in short-term trends, with soybean oil expected to perform strongly while canola and palm oil may experience fluctuations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in July and the positive impact of overseas biodiesel policies, domestic oils and fats are expected to show a differentiated short - term trend. Soybean oil is expected to be strong, while rapeseed oil and palm oil may fluctuate repeatedly [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - **Soybean oil**: Weather forecasts indicate less rainfall in the eastern corn belt and northern Great Plains in the next two weeks, which may affect soybean growth. The US biodiesel policy is long - term positive for US soybean oil demand, Brazil has raised the biodiesel blending ratio as expected, and the implementation of Indonesia's B40 is going well, all of which are positive for domestic oils and fats [6]. - **Palm oil**: MPOA data shows that the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 31 increased by 9.01%. Reuters survey predicts that the inventory in July will be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June; production is expected to be 1.83 million tons, an increase of 8% from June; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, an increase of 3.2% from June. High - frequency data shows increased production and decreased exports in July, and the market expects a high probability of inventory build - up. Attention should be paid to the July MPOB report [6]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Recently, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased slightly but remains at a historically high level. The trade relationship between China and Australia has improved, and China may import rapeseed from Australia later, which requires attention [6]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the support level for palm oil 01 be around 8,500, and for soybean oil 01 around 8,000. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Outlook**: Key points to watch include biodiesel policies of various countries, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and the price of crude oil. Overall, oils and fats may show a differentiated short - term trend [8]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Market - Last week, oils and fats fluctuated strongly, mainly due to domestic enterprises exporting soybean oil to India [17]. - The soybean - palm oil spread fluctuated widely and is currently at a historical low; the rapeseed - palm oil spread fluctuated weakly; the rapeseed - soybean oil spread fluctuated widely. It is recommended to wait and see for all [20]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Malaysian palm oil**: According to the June MPOB report, Malaysia's crude palm oil production in June was 1.6923 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.48%; palm oil imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.51%; palm oil exports were 1.2594 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.52%; and the ending inventory was 2.0306 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41%. The report is neutral to bearish [33]. - **Domestic soybean and soybean oil**: As of August 1, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.1174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,300 tons, or 2.69%. Year - on - year, it decreased by 8,600 tons, or 0.76% [65]. - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil**: As of August 1, 2025, the rapeseed inventory in major coastal oil mills was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 106,500 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from last week; and the unexecuted contracts were 96,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week [68]. - **Domestic palm oil**: As of August 1, 2025 (week 31), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, or 5.41%. Year - on - year, it increased by 3,400 tons, or 0.59% [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - No specific demand - side analysis content other than showing the volume charts of various oils and fats is provided 3.6 Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.1174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.76%. The national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.41% and a year - on - year increase of 0.59% [65]. - As of August 1, 2025, coastal major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons (down 21,000 tons from last week), rapeseed oil inventory was 106,500 tons (up 11,000 tons from last week), and unexecuted contracts were 96,000 tons (down 6,000 tons from last week) [68]. 3.7 Disk Import Profit - As of August 8, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the August shipment was - 204 yuan/ton [73].

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices fluctuating between 8806.00 and 9018.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 2.18% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for palm oil opened at 8808.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 9018.00 CNY/ton during the trading session [1] - The market is showing a strong performance with a general upward trend in palm oil prices [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures indicates that the macroeconomic environment is weakening, and with OPEC+ agreeing to a significant production increase in September, the palm oil market may face downward pressure [1] - Ningzheng Futures notes that typhoon weather has delayed palm oil shipments to East China, leading to a slight decrease in domestic commercial inventory and a minor recovery in the soybean-palm oil price spread [1] - Zhonghui Futures highlights that policies in Indonesia and Malaysia favor palm oil consumption, with buying demand from China and India, suggesting a bullish outlook for the market [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes multiple agricultural product futures, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, presenting different views and trading strategies for each based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the next two weeks, it is expected to be in a large - range oscillation due to the combination of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. The main contract range is [2980, 3040] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also in a large - range oscillation with multiple long and short factors. The main contract range is [2620, 2750]. Attention should be paid to rapeseed planting weather, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The market outlook is bullish in the long - term, but there may be short - term adjustments. In July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil, which may suppress short - term prices. The main contract range is [8600, 8950] [1]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. Although the valuation is low, it is necessary to be cautious when short - selling. Consider gradually taking profit on previous short positions. The main contract range is [13400, 13700] [1]. - **Jujube**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. After the price fills the gap, there is significant upward pressure. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound driven by macro - sentiment. The main contract range is [10525, 11275] [1]. - **Live Pigs**: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. In the short - term, there is support for the price, and the near - month contract is difficult to break through downward. In the medium - and long - term, pay attention to the intensity of capacity reduction. Consider gradually taking profit on near - month short positions and establishing long positions on far - month contracts after the spot price stabilizes. The main contract range is [13950, 14350] [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 808.5 million tons, up 10.60 million tons week - on - week and 22.85 million tons year - on - year. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 645.59 million tons, up 3.35 million tons week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory was 104.31 million tons, up 4.47 million tons week - on - week [3]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 3000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.33% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2977.71 yuan/ton, up 4.57 yuan or 0.15% [2]. - **Factors**: The neutral climate forecast and smooth US soybean planting weather, along with the inventory accumulation period in China until the end of September, contribute to weak fundamentals. However, Sino - US trade tariffs provide cost support [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 13.7 million tons, down 2.5 million tons week - on - week, and national rapeseed meal inventory was 66.54 million tons, down 1.33 million tons week - on - week [6]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 2699 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan or 1.32% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2658.42 yuan/ton, down 30.53 yuan or 1.14% [4]. - **Factors**: The recovery of global rapeseed production, high domestic inventory, and low import due to high tariffs support the price. However, the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed and low spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal put pressure on the price [1]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, national commercial inventory was 61.55 million tons, up 2.41 million tons week - on - week and 10.88 million tons year - on - year [8]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 8910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8990 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.03% [7]. - **Factors**: Indonesian and Malaysian biodiesel policies are bullish for consumption, but the possible inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices [1]. Cotton - **Production**: In the US, the new cotton growth is good despite slightly worse soil moisture. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit are expected to increase, with the national average yield per unit expected to rise by 2.5% and the output to reach over 7.4 million tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Domestic commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment of downstream finished products has slowed down recently [12]. - **Price**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 13585 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 0.48% from the previous day. The spot price was 15270 yuan/ton, down 288 yuan or 1.85% [9]. - **Factors**: Weak US cotton exports and reduced domestic demand due to slow replenishment of downstream products lead to a bearish outlook, but low valuation makes short - selling cautious [1]. Jujube - **Production**: The new - season jujube growth is good, and the expected production reduction is lower than previously thought [14]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10039 tons this week, down 51 tons week - on - week, but still higher than the same period last year [14]. - **Price**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10920 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan or 2.10% from the previous day [13]. - **Factors**: The weak fundamentals, limited implementation of the floor - price purchase order, and low demand in the off - season make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short - term, the accelerated出栏 of second - fattened pigs and partial culling of sows by large farms may increase supply. In the medium - term, the increase in the number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 indicates potential growth in出栏 in the second half of the year [18]. - **Price**: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14055 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.07% [16]. - **Factors**: The rebound of the price difference between standard and fat pigs drives some second - fattening speculation, providing support for the near - month contract. However, high long - term capacity requires attention to capacity reduction [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to the high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a sharp decline. The market is generally oscillating with a slight upward trend, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5] - Negative factors include the potential deterioration of US soybean export situation due to US tariff hikes on the world, good weather in the main US soybean - producing areas leading to high yield expectations, and the weekly soybean good - to - excellent rate being higher than expected [5] - Positive factors are the support from biodiesel policies and the expectation of improved China - US relations, a tight balance in the old - crop balance sheet, and the planting area being slightly lower than expected [5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices declined due to good precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas. Next week, key points to watch are the US tariff hikes on other countries and the weather in the main US producing areas [7] - This week, US soybean meal prices fluctuated at a low level, mainly due to the unwinding of the buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage [11] - This week, US soybean oil prices rose first and then fell. On one hand, good weather in the main US soybean - producing areas pressured soybean prices; on the other hand, the large - scale unwinding of the buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage positions led to a decline in oil prices and an increase in meal prices [14][15] - As of the week ending July 25, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.99 per bushel. The purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.81 per bushel and was falling. As of July 31, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.59 per bushel and was falling [18][21][23] - The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 116.79 reais per bag. As of August 1, the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 139.04 reais per bag [26][28] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas continued to improve, with the drought rate at 14%, compared to 17% last week [31] - In the next two weeks, the temperature in central US will be lower than normal, and precipitation in the central US soybean - producing areas will be slightly less. Precipitation in Brazilian producing areas is normal but on the low side, and precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is basically normal [33][35][38] - As of July 25, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, up from 68% last week and 67% in the same period last year [42] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of July 25, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.66 per bushel, up from $2.2 last week [45] - The weekly US soybean export volume was 499,600 tons, up from 303,200 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 409,700 tons, up from 377,000 tons last week [47][49] - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 349,100 tons, up from 103,400 tons last week. The sales of US soybeans for the next year were 429,400 tons, up from 238,800 tons last week [51][53] - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [55] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.47, approaching the La Nina range [58] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [60][62] - As of July 29, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,700 contracts, compared to a net long position of 6,200 contracts last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 83,300 contracts, up from 72,500 contracts last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 112,900 contracts, up from 103,700 contracts last week [66][68][70]