Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Douyi**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Doupo**: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - **Douyou & Palm Oil**: ★★★ (Three stars for bullish trend) and ★★★ (Three stars for bullish trend) [1] - **Caipo**: ★☆☆ (One star, bullish bias) [1] - **Caiyou**: ★★★ (Three stars, bullish trend) [1] - **Corn**: ★★★ (Three stars, bullish trend) [1] - **Pigs**: ★★★ (Three stars, bullish trend) [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ (Three stars, bullish trend) [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors including international policies, geopolitical situations, and weather conditions. The US EPA biodiesel policy is generally bullish for the agricultural product market, especially for soybeans and related products [2][3][4]. - Different agricultural products have different trends and investment strategies. For example, long - term investment in vegetable oils should be considered on dips, while the strategy for Caiyou may need short - term adjustment to a wait - and - see approach [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - **Douyi**: The domestic soybean market is oscillating strongly. The recent auction purchase session failed, and attention should be paid to the actual transaction of reserve soybeans in Heilongjiang. Short - term weather in the Northeast is favorable for crops. The US EPA biodiesel policy is bullish, and in the medium term, weather will be the main factor affecting prices [2]. - **Soybeans & Doupo**: Affected by the Israel - Iran war, crude oil, and the US biodiesel policy, US soybeans and Dalian Doupo are rising. The US soybean's good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected. Future US weather is favorable for soybean growth. Domestic spot prices are rising, and the expected increase in crushing rate will lead to an increase in Doupo inventory. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade remain, and attention should be paid to the changes in the oil sector and future weather from June to August [3]. Oils - **Douyou & Palm Oil**: The domestic oil - meal ratio has retreated after a high. The US EPA biodiesel policy is bullish for the long - term trend of vegetable oils, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Caiyou**: The main contract of Caiyou has increased in positions. Domestic Caiyou imports are limited, and the crushing rate is low. It is expected to gradually reduce inventory, but there is a risk of short - term upward resistance [6]. Others - **Caipo**: The main contract of Caipo has slightly reduced positions. The strategy is to maintain a bullish view [6]. - **Corn**: Affected by wheat policies, Dalian corn futures are oscillating. The price difference between new - season wheat and corn is narrowing, leading to substitution. Corn traders expect higher prices, and the supply in Shandong is low. North - South port inventories are decreasing, and the processing enterprise's operating rate is falling. Corn futures may continue to oscillate [7]. - **Pigs**: The September futures contract of pigs has slightly rebounded, and the far - month contracts are relatively weak. Spot prices are stable. Relevant departments have proposed a regulation target for sow inventory, and the policy aims to stabilize pig prices. However, the industry still faces large pressure on pig slaughter [8]. - **Eggs**: The near - month egg futures are falling again, showing a pattern of near - weak and far - strong. Spot prices are rebounding. The elimination of old chickens is accelerating, but there is no sign of a bottom - reversal yet. A rapid price rebound may be unfavorable for the elimination of old chickens and lead to price fluctuations [9].

| 豆棕价差 2509 -476 -354 -122 -34.46% | | --- | | 王滚辉 Z0019938 2025年6月17日 | | 更加 | | 6月16日 涨跌 | | 江苏一级 8300 8130 170 2.09% | | 7576 7444 132 期价 Y2509 1.77% | | 幕差 Y2509 724 ୧୫୧ 38 5.54% | | 菜豆油价差 现货 1350 1400 -20 -3.57% | | 仓单 17552 17552 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 2509 1545 1524 21 1.38% 采豆油价差 | | 现价 广东24度 8790 8530 260 3.05% | | 期价 P2509 8258 7976 282 3.54% | | 某差 P2509 532 554 -22 -3.97% | | 现货墓差报价 广东6月 09+350 09 +400 -50 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港9月 8825.0 8560.1 264.8 3.09% | | 2.94% | | 0.00% | | 菜籽油 | | 6月16日 6月13日 涨跌 旅 ...

2025/6/10 09:50 【国富期货早间看点】路透预计美⾖25/26 2.98 68% 20250610 【国富期货早间看点】路透预计美豆25/26年度期末库存为2.98亿蒲 美豆当周优良率为68%符合预期 20250610 2025年06月10日 07:34 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3919.00 | 0. 20 | -0. 15 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 67.13 | 0.72 | 0. 39 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 65. 38 | 0.94 | 0. 51 | | 美豆07(CBOT) | 1055. 75 | -0. 21 | 0. 02 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 295. 20 | -0. 20 | 0. 24 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 47. 41 | -0. 04 | -0. 48 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98.99 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity, including Zhuoyue Xinneng, Jiaao Environmental Protection, Shanggao Huaneng, Haineng Kexin, and Langkun Environment [4][5]. Core Insights - The biodiesel market is expected to see increased demand and raw material supply due to the cancellation of export VAT refunds on raw materials, which will drive growth in the biodiesel sector [4]. - Recent agreements, such as the one between Cathay Pacific and Sinopec for SAF procurement, indicate a positive trend in the adoption of domestic SAF, enhancing the supply chain for biodiesel [3]. - The average prices for domestic waste cooking oil and gutter oil have increased, with waste cooking oil priced at 6640 CNY/ton and gutter oil at 6180 CNY/ton, reflecting a stable export outlook for UCO to Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia [2][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The report notes a week-on-week increase in external HVO/SAF prices, with SAF at 1884.5 USD/ton (up 4.87%) and HVO at 1960.75 CNY/ton (up 3.46%) [1]. - Domestic price differences for biodiesel exports to Europe have reached 2539 CNY/ton, showing a weekly increase of 163 CNY/ton [1]. Export Expectations - The report anticipates a significant rise in China's HVO/SAF export volumes for May, with estimates nearing 40,000 tons, supported by rising external prices [3]. - The report highlights that the domestic HVO/SAF factories are maintaining strong procurement levels, indicating robust market demand [2]. Company Performance Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are projected, with Zhuoyue Xinneng expected to have an EPS of 3.16 CNY in 2025 and a PE of 14 [5].

Group 1 - The number of public REITs in China reached 66, with a total issuance scale of 174.39 billion yuan as of May 31, 2025 [4] - The weighted REITs index closed at 139.99 with a monthly return rate of 3.71%, outperforming A-shares, gold, pure bonds, and crude oil [4] - The return rates of major asset classes are ranked as follows: US stocks > convertible bonds > REITs > A-shares > gold > pure bonds > crude oil [4] Group 2 - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) policy in Europe is set to require a mandatory 2% addition, which is expected to drive price increases in related products [5] - Domestic channels for exporting bio-aviation fuel have been successfully established, indicating promising future development [5] Group 3 - The company Guming has expanded its presence to over 200 cities across 17 provinces in China, with a total of 9,914 stores, making it the largest mass-market fresh tea drink brand in the country [6] - Guming has achieved an average quarterly repurchase rate of 53% and a store operating profit margin of approximately 20%, both leading the industry [6] Group 4 - NIO reported a total revenue of 12.04 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38.9% [8] - The gross margin for NIO was 7.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.1 percentage points [8] - The Non-GAAP net loss for NIO expanded by 28.2% year-on-year to 6.28 billion yuan, although it narrowed by 4.2% quarter-on-quarter [8]

2025年06月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：印度降税或刺激采购，观察情绪反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：豆系驱动不强，区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易摩擦担忧、美豆偏弱，连粕或震荡 | 5 | | 豆一：震荡 | 5 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 白糖：震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 棉花：上涨动能不足 | 10 | | 鸡蛋：节后淘汰或进一步加速 | 12 | | 生猪：去库启动，远端预期转强 | 13 | | 花生：关注现货 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 棕榈油：印度降税或刺激采购，观察情绪反复 豆油：豆系驱动不强，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,060 | -1.59% | | | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,638 | -1.1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: The speculation about floods in Indonesia is questionable, and Malaysia still faces significant inventory pressure [1]. - Soybean oil: The driving force of the soybean sector is weak, and it mainly fluctuates within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 7,984 yuan/ton (down 0.80% during the day, up 0.88% at night), soybean oil主力 at 7,754 yuan/ton (down 0.54% during the day, up 0.34% at night), and rapeseed oil主力 at 9,277 yuan/ton (down 0.20% during the day, up 1.29% at night). The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 3,884 ringgit/ton (up 1.54% during the day, up 0.85% at night), and CBOT soybean oil主力 at 49.48 cents/pound (up 1.12%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 514,650 lots (down 154,250) and an open interest of 397,913 lots (up 10,473). Soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 378,133 lots (down 13,476) and an open interest of 602,914 lots (down 2,419). Rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 352,218 lots (down 105,292) and an open interest of 287,993 lots (down 892) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton (down 50), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,160 yuan/ton (down 50), and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,300 yuan/ton (down 50). The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 960 dollars/ton (down 10) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 566 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 406 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 23 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 1,363 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 230 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were - 4 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 204 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **MPOC Forecast**: In May, the price of crude palm oil in Malaysia is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit and then gradually recover. From June to September, global vegetable oil demand will be favorable for palm oil, limiting price declines. India's reduction of palm oil import tariffs is expected to increase imports and reduce soybean oil import demand. As of May 16, the price gap between palm oil and soybean oil has narrowed to 51 dollars. Due to the high - base effect, production from May to September is expected to increase moderately. The export to sub - Saharan Africa and ASEAN has increased, while exports to other regions have decreased. The US biodiesel production and the consumption of main raw materials have declined [4]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: From May 1 - 20, AmSpec reported an export volume of 720,422 tons (up 1.55% from the same period last month), ITS reported 741,560 tons (up 5.3%), and SGS estimated 651,381 tons (up 13.73%) [5][6][7]. - **USDA Pressing Weekly Report**: As of the week ending May 16, 2025, the US soybean pressing profit was 2.31 dollars per bushel (up 7% from the previous week). In 2024, the average pressing profit was 2.44 dollars/bushel, lower than 3.29 dollars/bushel in 2023 [7]. - **CONAB Data**: As of May 17, the harvesting rate of 2024/25 Brazilian soybeans was 98.9% (compared to 98.5% last week, 97% last year, and a five - year average of 98.5%) [7]. - **Anec Forecast**: Brazil's soybean exports in May are expected to be 1,452 million tons (up 1.75% from last week's forecast). If realized, it will be 100 million tons more than the same period last year [8]. - **Abiove Data**: In March 2025, Brazilian factories processed 468 million tons of soybeans, producing 355 million tons of soybean meal and 96 million tons of soybean oil. The ending inventory of soybeans was 2,578 million tons, soybean meal was 220 million tons, and soybean oil was 32 million tons [8]. - **EU Commission Data**: As of May 18, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 251 million tons (compared to 308 million tons last year), and soybean imports were 1246 million tons (compared to 1165 million tons last year) [8]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [9].

Group 1: Industry Overview - Refined glycerol is a highly purified form of glycerol with a purity of over 99.5%, produced from crude glycerol, and is widely used in food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and industrial applications [1][2][3] - China is the largest producer and consumer of glycerol globally, with a projected refined glycerol production of 202,500 tons in 2024, an increase of 30,300 tons from 2023 [1][3] - The demand for refined glycerol in China is expected to be 890,300 tons in 2024, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to 2023 [1][3] Group 2: Import and Export Dynamics - China's refined glycerol import volume is projected to be 693,500 tons in 2024, a decrease of 37,200 tons from 2023, with an import value of approximately $39.06 million, down by $3.56 million [5] - The export volume of refined glycerol is expected to remain stable at 5,700 tons in 2024, with an export value of $7.87 million, a decrease of $1.14 million from 2023 [5] Group 3: Industry Chain Analysis - The upstream of the refined glycerol industry primarily involves natural oils such as palm oil and soybean oil, while the downstream applications include food additives, pharmaceuticals, and personal care products [7][9] - In the food industry, refined glycerol is used as a moisturizer, solvent, sweetener, and stabilizer, contributing to the growth of the food additives sector, which is projected to increase from 12.69 million tons in 2019 to 17.59 million tons by 2024 [11] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The refined glycerol market is characterized by intense competition, with key global players including P&G Chemicals, KLK OLEO, and Wilmar International, alongside domestic companies such as Yangzhou Feiyang Chemical Co., Ltd. and Langxi Jinghe Biological New Materials Co., Ltd. [13][15] Group 5: Future Trends - The market for refined glycerol is expected to grow steadily, driven by its applications in personal care, food, and pharmaceuticals, with increasing demand for sustainable and green products [16] - The acceleration of domestic production of high-purity glycerol is anticipated as technology advances, enhancing the market potential for refined glycerol [16]

研究所 生柴政策多变 美豆油冲高回落 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年5月18日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆先扬后抑，价格较前一周有所上移。周一CBOT大豆创下三个月新高，贸易紧张局势缓解以及美国农业部报告利多帮助大豆价格回升至贸易沖突前水平。美国 农业部预计2025/26年度美国大豆期末库存为2.95亿蒲式耳，分析师预计为3.62亿蒲式耳。美国农业部预计2024/25年度美国大豆期末库存为3.5亿蒲式耳，而4月份的预测是3.7亿蒲式耳，分 析师的预期是3,69亿蒲式耳。 美豆库存下调显示偏紧格局。随后美豆继续刷新高点，据知情人士透露，美国众议院税收委员会拟议的草案计划将45Z清洁燃料税收抵免政策延长至2031年12 月31日，美豆油飙升拉动美豆持续走高。周四美豆高位大幅回落，市场传闻美国可再生燃料义务（RVO）计划可能削减，环保署署长李•泽尔丁在参议院听证会中表达出的谨慎态度，引发了 对生物柴油需求前景的担忧。美豆回吐本周涨幅。与之相比，国 ...

Market Overview - As of May 14, domestic first-grade soybean oil spot price reached 8215 CNY/ton, an increase of 79 CNY/ton (0.97%) from May 12, and up by 66 CNY/ton (0.81%) from May 13 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that for the week ending May 8, net sales of soybean oil for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 14,000 tons, slightly down from 15,000 tons the previous week; for the 2025/2026 marketing year, net sales were 0 tons, compared to 100 tons the prior week [1] - U.S. soybean oil export shipments for the 2024/2025 marketing year totaled 51,000 tons, up from 35,000 tons the previous week [1] - Approximately 17% of U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought as of May 13, up from 15% the previous week and significantly higher than 9% the same time last year [1] Industry Insights - According to Ruida Futures, domestic oil mills are operating at low capacity due to tight soybean oil supply, but with a significant amount of soybeans arriving at ports, inventory levels are normalizing. Oil mill operating rates are expected to rise, leading to a recovery in soybean oil stocks. However, seasonal supply pressure from South American soybeans may keep soybean prices under pressure [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that U.S. soybean oil has experienced a significant decline, reversing previous gains due to delays in the RVO policy announcement, which has increased market volatility. The overall trend indicates a substantial demand for raw materials in the biodiesel sector, but price fluctuations may increase due to various factors including raw material prices and policy subsidies [3]