格隆汇2月6日｜一项调查显示，尽管对劳动力市场以及生活成本上升的担忧仍在，美国消费者信心在2 月初小幅改善。密歇根大学消费者调查显示，消费者信心指数本月升至57.3，高于1月终值56.4。该调查 负责人Joanne Hsu表示："尽管当前信心指数为2025年8月以来最高，但近几个月的升幅都很有限，从历 史角度看，整体信心水平仍然非常低。高企的物价对个人财务状况的侵蚀，以及失业风险上升的担忧， 仍然普遍存在。"消费者对未来一年通胀的预期从1月的4.0%降至本月的3.5%；对未来五年的通胀预期 则从上月的3.3%升至3.4%。 ...

Group 1 - The core consumer confidence index in the U.S. unexpectedly rose to 57.3 in February, the highest level in six months, driven by improved confidence among high-income individuals due to rising stock market and asset prices [1] - The survey conducted by the University of Michigan indicated that the consumer confidence index increased from 56.4 in January, surpassing the median economist expectation of 55 [1] - Consumers' short-term inflation expectations eased, with respondents anticipating an annualized inflation rate of 3.5% over the next 12 months, the lowest in a year, although long-term inflation expectations slightly increased [1] Group 2 - Despite the overall improvement in confidence, concerns regarding the job market have intensified, with respondents assessing their job loss probability at the highest level since July 2020 [2] - Recent data reflects a lack of momentum in the U.S. labor market, with job openings falling to the lowest level since 2020 and private sector job additions in January at only 22,000, alongside the highest number of layoffs in January since 2009 [2] - The current conditions index rose to 58.3, a four-month high, while the future expectations index saw a slight decline, indicating mixed sentiments about future economic conditions [2]

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 57.3，预期 55，前值 56.4。 美国2月密歇根大学消费者现况指 数初值 58.3，预期 53.7，前值 55.4。 美国2月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值 3.5%，预期 4%，前值 4%。 美国2月密歇根大学5年通胀预期初值 3.4%，预期 3.3%，前值 3.3%。 ...

前言： 一篇文章的指引或许有限，但长期精准的分析才是稳步提升收益的关键。或许你见过无数分析与盈利案 例，却仍受亏损困扰——这往往是因过度综合复杂策略所致，而市场本质是"少数者盈利"的博弈。与其 分散参考，不如专注跟随专业思路：建立"入场、出场、风控"三位一体的交易体系，方能实现稳定盈 利。积少成多并非难事，关键在于科学规划与严格执行。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五亚洲时段现货黄金显著走弱，金价一度下探至4655美元附近，延续此前的回调走势。市场情绪从此 前的强势避险配置转向风险再平衡，部分资金在股市波动加剧背景下选择调整仓位，对金价形成压力。 芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME）近日再次上调黄金和白银合约的初始保证金要求，提高了交易者开仓 及维持头寸所需的资金规模。市场调查显示，在保证金要求提高以及科技板块下跌的双重影响下，一部 分交易者被迫平掉黄金多头头寸，以应对其他资产的保证金压力，黄金因此承受额外抛售。黄金价格在 亚洲早盘大幅回落，主要受交易所上调保证金要求、部分投资者被动平仓以及地缘紧张情绪缓解影响。 股市波动促使资金回补保证金，进一步加剧黄金抛压。尽管如此，美联储独立性 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年02月04日15时52分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡反弹，沪金主力收涨7.29%，沪银主力收涨11.22%，铂金主力收涨6.73%，钯金主力收涨涨6.29%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，地缘异动风险短期升温；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期渐近尾声。②避险属性方 面，美军在阿拉伯海击落伊朗无人机，美籍油轮在霍尔木兹海峡遭伊朗炮艇逼近，地区紧张局势进一步升温。③货币属性方面，特 朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接替鲍威尔，新提名引爆鹰派预期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度。美国12月PPI创五个 月来最大环比涨幅，意味着未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完 成，下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。 铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民 币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期低位震荡，长期多头趋势不变。 一、黄金 策略 ...

Group 1 - The overall trend in the commodity market is upward, with strong performance in precious metals, black metals (coal and construction materials), crude oil, and non-ferrous metals [2][15] - Key commodities showing strength include gold, silver, tin, coking coal, fuel oil, glass, and PVC, suggesting a preference for bullish operations around these top-performing products [2][15] - Global market dynamics are influenced by inflation expectations supporting commodities, geopolitical conflicts, and energy supply disruptions, with precious metals leading due to safe-haven and anti-inflation demand [2][15] Group 2 - The real estate sector in Hong Kong showed a rebound, driven by bullish sentiment from some private equity firms, although this does not necessarily indicate a rise in real estate prices [3][16] - Policies in cities like Shanghai may not support upward expectations for real estate prices, indicating that a recovery in the sector is premature [3][17] - The A-share market saw brokerage and liquor stocks supporting the market, suggesting potential issues with previously overheated stocks [4][18] Group 3 - For the glass futures (2605), a bullish strategy is recommended with a buying range of 1100-1115 points, an initial stop-loss of 1070-1082 points, and a target profit range of 1132-1142 points [19] - For PVC futures (2605), a similar bullish strategy is advised with a buying range of 5120-5160 points, a stop-loss of 5000-5050 points, and a target profit range of 5230-5280 points [20] - The overall trading results indicate an 8% profit for glass futures, achieving a phase-specific profit target, while PVC futures continue to show a clear bullish trend [22][23] Group 4 - The effectiveness of strategies is based on supply contraction, inventory reduction, and strong expectations driven by capital, with successful risk management practices in place [25] - Highlights of risk control include timely adjustments to stop-loss levels and advising investors on reducing positions to mitigate potential risks [25] - The current commodity market is experiencing high volatility, necessitating close monitoring of global macro data and domestic policy changes for dynamic strategy adjustments [25]

Xml [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 4 日 证券研究报告 高波动遇上真空期：大类资产配置月度展望 | [Table_Title] [Tabl e_Author 分析师：] | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈礼清 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003809 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | chenliqing@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈礼清并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | 报告摘要： ⚫ 12026 年 1 月大类资产表现为韩国综指＞原油＞黄金＞科创 50＞南华综合＞恒指＞日经 225＞做多 VIX＞上证 综指 ≈ 恒科＞标普 500＞纳指＞中债＞美元。1 月底 2 月初，贵金属巨震联动大类资产普调。（1）股商优于债 券，新兴市场优于发达国家，春 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major asset classes in January 2026 shows a trend where the Korean Composite Index outperformed other assets, with significant volatility in precious metals leading to a broad adjustment across asset classes [1][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In January 2026, the ranking of major asset classes was as follows: Korean Composite Index > Crude Oil > Gold > Sci-Tech 50 > Nanhua Composite > Hang Seng Index > Nikkei 225 > Long VIX > Shanghai Composite Index ≈ Hengke > S&P 500 > Nasdaq > China Bond > US Dollar [1][14]. - The commodity market experienced structural upward trends driven by both long-term narratives and short-term realities, with gold and silver showing volatility but not losing their gains [2][21]. - The global stock markets are entering a critical earnings disclosure period, with all major markets showing gains, and a shift in leading stocks within the US market [2][24]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic landscape is characterized by a synchronous rise in hard and soft data indices in the US and Japan, while Europe shows a V-shaped reversal in its data [4]. - China's soft data indicators are inconsistent, with hard data in a vacuum period, but nominal GDP growth is estimated at 4.94% for January, indicating a solidifying trend of improvement [4][21]. - The domestic stock and bond markets have shifted from a "seesaw" dynamic to "synchronous volatility," with the stock market experiencing a spring rally and the bond market undergoing a correction [2][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The next driving factors for equity assets may stem from price increases and solidified inflation expectations, with a focus on domestic demand recovery post-holiday [5]. - The "M1-BCI-PPI timing system" indicates a slight expansion in scores, suggesting a supportive environment for risk assets despite a convergence in narratives [6]. - The bond market is showing signs of improvement in relative value, with the yield spread between 10-year government bonds and dividend yields indicating a return to a more favorable position for bonds [7]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The technology sector is currently underweighted compared to the overall market, with a significant drop in the score of high-growth assets due to internal and external liquidity conditions [9]. - The dividend asset timing model suggests that macro conditions do not favor dividends significantly, maintaining a low allocation relative to the overall market [10]. - The energy sector has shown strong performance, driven by geopolitical safety premiums and narratives around AI industrial energy consumption [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent drop in gold prices is not the end of its troubles, as investor enthusiasm remains high despite the decline, indicating potential further downside for gold prices [1] - Last Friday, gold prices fell nearly 10% and silver prices dropped over 31%, yet there were no substantial changes in the fundamentals, with inflation expectations rising and policy uncertainty not significantly decreasing [1] - The HGNSI sentiment index remains high at 84.4%, suggesting market overcrowding, while the CME's margin increase has exacerbated leveraged liquidations, leading to liquidity shocks [1] Group 2 - Institutions view the recent price movements as a healthy correction or structural bull market fluctuation, but sentiment has not sufficiently cooled down [1] - Historical data indicates that an HGNSI below 10% is a reliable buy signal, suggesting that there may still be selling risks in the short term [1] - As of Tuesday, the spot gold price was reported at $4895.37 per ounce, reflecting a 5.06% increase [2]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 美国国债出现小幅上涨，走势联动股市与原油市场变化。近期美股出现调整，部分资金从权益市场转向 低波动的国债市场寻求避险，推动国债价格上行。同时，国际油价走高推升通胀预期，通胀上行预期虽 会侵蚀国债固定收益的实际价值，但市场担忧油价高企将拖累经济增长，令具备稳定收益属性的国债仍 获得部分资金青睐。 PIMCO指出，当前债券定价相比股票具备绝对吸引力，投资者需通过全球多元布局实现回报最大化并 降低风险。从全球市场环境来看，此前美联储相关人事提名引发市场对货币政策路径的重新定价，带动 美元资产出现波动。叠加中东等地缘局势持续扰动原油供应预期，市场对地缘冲突升级的担忧加剧，推 升市场对避险资产的配置需求，为国债价格提供支撑，同时也令国际油价保持高位运行。 全球主要央行货币政策调整节奏分化，美国国债作为全球核心避险资产，配置需求得到进一步巩固。权 益市场波动期间，资金转向具备稳定收益属性的国债市场，成为推动本次国债小幅上涨的重要支撑因 素。 ...