住房与信贷方面，消费者预计未来12个月房价上涨3.4%，高于7月的3.3%。未来一年抵押贷款利率预期 维持在4.5%。同时，报告显示，认为过去一年信贷条件趋紧的家庭占比增加，预期未来12个月信贷条 件收紧的家庭占比也有所上升。 欧洲央行表示，消费者预期调查的下一期数据将于10月27日发布。 资讯编辑：沈一冰 021-26093395 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 欧洲中央银行26日公布的数据显示，2025年8月，欧元区消费者对未来一年通胀的预期有所上升，而对 三年期的通胀预期保持不变。 调查显示，消费者对过去12个月的通胀感受中值维持在3.1%，已连续七个月保持稳定。未来12个月的 通胀预期中值从7月的2.6%升至2.8%；三年期预期维持在2.5%；五年期预期小幅升至2.2%，为2022年8 月以来最高水平。 在收入与消费方面，消费者未来12个月名义收入增长预期从0.9%升至1.1%；过去12个月名义支出增速 感受为5.0%，高于7月的4.7%。未来12个月的支出增长预期维持在3.3%。 经济与就业方面，消费者对未来12个月经济增长的预期维持在-1.2 ...

Core Points - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined for the second consecutive month, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 55.1 in September, a decrease of 3.1 points or approximately 5% from the previous month, and below market expectations of 55.4 [1][3] - This index level is the lowest since May of this year and represents a 21.4% decline compared to the same period last year [1][3] Group 1: Consumer Sentiment - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a key measure of economic conditions, personal financial status, business environment, and consumer willingness to spend, published twice a month [3] - The survey indicates a widespread weakening of consumer sentiment across various demographics, including age, income, and education levels [3] - Consumers with significant stock holdings showed stable confidence, while those with little or no stock assets experienced a notable decline in confidence [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The current economic conditions index fell to 60.4, below the expected 61.2, marking the lowest level since May, with a month-over-month decline of 2.1% and a year-over-year decline of 4.6% [4] - The consumer expectations index dropped for the third consecutive month to 51.7, slightly below the expected 51.8, reflecting a month-over-month decline of 7.5% and a year-over-year drop of 30.5% [4] - Inflation expectations showed a slight decrease in the one-year outlook from 4.8% to 4.7%, while the long-term inflation expectation rose to 3.7%, still below the April high of 4.4% [4] Group 3: Small Business Sentiment - The small business owner confidence index also reflects a similar pessimistic sentiment, indicating pressure on both the consumer and small business sectors of the U.S. economy [5]

非农影响金价？这一问题始终是贵金属投资者关注的核心。每月美国非农就业数据公布前后，国际金价往往迎来明显波动，尤其在 2025 年 "通胀与就业数 据关键" 的市场环境下，非农数据对金价的引导作用更显突出。作为合规的贵金属投资服务机构，金盛贵金属结合实时行情与政策逻辑，为投资者拆解非农 数据与金价的深层关联，助力把握投资机会。 一、非农影响金价？数据逻辑与通胀预期的联动效应 要弄清 "非农影响金价？" 的答案，需先明确非农数据的核心作用 —— 它不仅反映美国就业市场热度，更是美联储判断通胀走势的关键依据。2025 年以 来，美联储多次强调 "通胀与就业数据关键"，若非农就业人数超预期、平均时薪涨幅扩大，市场会担忧通胀反弹，进而预期美联储收紧货币政策（如暂缓 降息），美元走强将压制金价；反之，若非农数据不及预期，意味着就业市场降温，通胀压力缓解，降息预期升温会推动金价上行。 以 2025 年 9 月为例，市场预测美国非农就业人数新增 20 万人，若实际数据低于 18 万人，伦敦金可能从 3740 美元 / 盎司区间向 3780 美元突破；若数据超 22 万人，金价或回调至 3700 美元支撑位。金盛贵金属实时跟踪 ...

经济与就业方面，消费者对未来12个月经济增长的预期维持在-1.2%。对未来一年失业率的预期从7月的 10.6%升至10.7%，与当前感受到的失业率10.1%接近，显示整体劳动力市场预期较为稳定。 住房与信贷方面，消费者预计未来12个月房价上涨3.4%，高于7月的3.3%。未来一年抵押贷款利率预期 维持在4.5%。同时，报告显示，认为过去一年信贷条件趋紧的家庭占比增加，预期未来12个月信贷条 件收紧的家庭占比也有所上升。 欧洲央行表示，消费者预期调查的下一期数据将于10月27日发布。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经法兰克福9月26日电（记者马悦然）欧洲中央银行26日公布的数据显示，2025年8月，欧元区消 费者对未来一年通胀的预期有所上升，而对三年期的通胀预期保持不变。 调查显示，消费者对过去12个月的通胀感受中值维持在3.1%，已连续七个月保持稳定。未来12个月的 通胀预期中值从7月的2.6%升至2.8%；三年期预期维持在2.5%；五年期预期小幅升至2.2%，为2022年8 月以来最高水平。 在收入与消费方面，消费者未来12个月名义收入增长预期从0.9%升至1.1%；过去12个月名义支出增速 感受为5.0% ...

美元四季度观点 东证衍生品研究院 元涛 从业资格号：F0286099 投资咨询号：Z0012850 美国经济-劳动力市场韧性降低 劳动力市场冷却速度上升 职位空缺降低 失业率上升但是通胀未必下行 资料来源：Bloomberg 美国劳动力市场韧性在明显降低，失业率开始趋势性上升，职位空缺趋向于中性水平。劳动力市场 很明显比预期要弱。 美国经济-劳动力市场中期弱势难免 资料来源：Bloomberg 经济基本面数据已经走弱，劳动力市场表现在目前很明显开始跟随经济基本面走弱，远期预期明显 下行，但是薪资增速继续维持相对韧性。 劳动力市场走弱速度可能加快 薪资增速继续制约核心通胀下行速度 经济远期预期波动加剧 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 美国通胀短期压力继续存在 核心服务业通胀回升 资料来源：Bloomberg 短期通胀压力持续存在，核心通胀尤其是服务业通胀没有明显下行倾向，短期通胀压力很明显在上 升。 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 通胀预期高位震荡 能源价格对于降息影响并不高 资料来源：Bloomberg 但是真正的关键在于远期通胀预期明显上升，并且达到一个非常高的水平，能源价格的上升对于通 胀预期的影响并不是非常显著 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) reported an increase in consumer inflation expectations for the Eurozone in August, supporting the stance of "not further lowering interest rates" [1] - Consumers expect prices to rise by 2.8% over the next 12 months, up from 2.6% in July, while three-year inflation expectations remain unchanged and five-year expectations slightly increased to 2.2% [1][3] - The current inflation rate in the Eurozone is stable at the target level of 2%, with officials expressing satisfaction with the current interest rate levels [3] Group 2 - Some ECB officials are concerned that inflation may fall below the target in the next two years, while others are focused on the impact of increased defense spending [3] - ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir stated that the bank has achieved its target and emphasized the need for patience and readiness for timely action [3] - The market anticipates an increase in the inflation rate to 2.3% this month [3] Group 3 - The ECB is closely monitoring food price trends, which are rising faster than other goods and services, with warnings that this could elevate overall inflation expectations [3] - The August survey revealed that consumer expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months remain stable at -1.2% [4] - Consumer expectations for the unemployment rate increased from 10.6% to 10.7%, while nominal income growth expectations rose to 1.1% from 1.0% [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国GDP增速超预期叠加首申失业金人数下降，10月降息预期降温，金 价回升；美国三大股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线收跌；美债收益率多数上 涨，10年期美债收益率涨1.93个基点报4.158%；美元指数涨0.60%报98.47，离岸人 民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1452；COMEX黄金期货涨0.33%报3780.5美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货854.72，现货850.58，基差-4.14，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单60543千克，增加1530千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to the rebound of the US dollar, gold prices declined. However, high expectations of interest rate cuts, supply concerns (as evidenced by copper prices rising over 3% to a more than one - year high), and the expansion of the Shanghai gold premium may support gold prices. Gold prices are still likely to rise easily and fall difficult under the current global situation [4]. - For silver, silver prices also dropped as the US dollar rebounded. But it may be supported by supply concerns and high interest - rate cut expectations, and the upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US dollar rebounded, causing gold prices to fall. US stocks slightly declined, European stocks had mixed performance, US Treasury yields rose (10 - year Treasury yield increased by 4.24 basis points to 4.149%), the US dollar index rose 0.65% to 97.86, and the offshore RMB depreciated significantly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.24% to $3768.5 per ounce. The basis was - 4.86, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1530 kilograms to 60543 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The US dollar rebounded, leading to a drop in silver prices. US stocks declined across the board, European stocks had mixed performance, US Treasury yields fell (10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 4.06 basis points to 4.106%), the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 97.23, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 1.11% to $44.115 per ounce. The basis was - 67, and the Shanghai silver premium slightly expanded to around 240 yuan per kilogram. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Positive factors include global turmoil with remaining risk - aversion sentiment, strong expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and tariff concerns. Negative factors include the implementation of Trump's new policies, improved US economic expectations, significant interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black - swan events. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and gold prices are still likely to rise easily and fall difficult [10]. - **Silver**: Positive factors are similar to those of gold, with tariff concerns having a stronger impact on silver prices. Negative factors are also the same as those of gold. The logic is that silver prices generally follow gold prices, and due to stronger tariff concerns, silver prices may see an expanded increase [13]. 3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting; the Alibaba 2025 Yunqi Conference will be held from September 24 - 26 in Hangzhou, the Xiaomi 17 series launch event and the 2025 Eurasian Economic Forum will be held in Xi'an; at 14:00, Germany's October GfK consumer confidence index will be released; at 14:45, European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazimir will present macro - expectations; at 15:30, the Swiss National Bank will announce its interest - rate decision; at 16:00, the European Central Bank will publish its economic bulletin, and the Swiss National Bank President Schlegel will hold a press conference; at 20:15, Federal Reserve Governor Milan will participate in a Bloomberg TV program; at 20:20, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (a 2025 FOMC voter) will speak; at 20:30, the final value of the US second - quarter GDP, the preliminary value of August durable goods orders, the goods trade balance, and wholesale inventories will be released; at 21:00, New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the Fourth Annual Conference on the International Role of the US Dollar, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid (a 2025 FOMC voter) will speak; at 22:00, the annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in August will be released, and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak on regulatory issues; at 01:00 the next day, former Federal Reserve Vice - Chairman for Supervision Barr will talk about bank stress tests; at 01:40, Dallas Fed President Logan's speech manuscript will be released; at 03:00 the next day, the Bank of Mexico will announce its interest - rate decision; at 03:30, San Francisco Fed President Daly (a 2027 FOMC voter) will speak [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.86, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1530 kilograms to 60543 kilograms, also a bearish factor [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 67, which is a neutral factor. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 12756 kilograms to 1161799 kilograms, also a neutral factor [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Silver**: The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased, which is a bullish factor [6].

周三（9月24日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元上涨，目前交投于147附近，截止北京时间11:43分，美元兑日 元报价147.84，上涨0.15%，上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.62。澳新银行研究部高级国际经济学家 TomKenny在报告中表示，日本央行今年剩余时间可能维持政策利率不变。 他指出，美国关税对日本经济影响的不确定性加剧，加之日本国内政治局势不明朗，这些因素可能使日 本央行在明年之前保持按兵不动。日本央行上一次加息是在2025年初。Kenny称，央行暂停加息的一个 主要原因是其下调了2026财年的通胀预期，目前该预期已低于2%的物价稳定目标。这表明央行政策委 员会成员对实现物价稳定使命的信心有所下降，他补充道。澳新银行已将日本央行25个基点的加息预期 从2025年10月推迟至2026年1月。 美元兑日元支撑位是147.00关口，若跌破该点位，现货价格可能会加速下跌至146.20的水平支撑位。下 跌趋势可能会进一步延伸至145.50-145.45区域，这是上周三触及的7月7日以来的最低水平。 ...

中国工商银行（亚洲） 东南亚研究中心 李卢霞 黄斯佳 周文敏 杨妍 研 究 报 告 发达经济体超长债利率大幅波动 的缘由及影响 阅读摘要 2025 年 9 月 2 日，主要发达经济体超长债利率快速走升引发市场关 注，市场忧虑情绪蔓延至欧洲的汇市和股市。 从发达经济体超长债利率大幅波动的几个可能原因来看，一是经济 面，宽财政、高杠杆，债务可持续性担忧持续发酵；叠加政局不稳、 避险情绪升温；二是政策面，受关税摩擦等影响，通胀预期走升，掣 肘降息前景，恶化财政负担形成负循环；三是资金面，公司债发债潮 冲击、TGA 账户重建等导致债券供给阶段性增加，但长期资金配置需 求疲弱。 往后看，短期美国超长债利率或高位回落，英、法、日、德预计仍有 阶段性冲高可能，但持续大幅上行空间料有限。中长期期限溢价或维 持高位，长端利率存在中枢抬升的风险。 欢迎扫码关注 工银亚洲研究 注：本报告的预测及建议只作为一般的市场评论，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。 权，不得以任何形式修改、复制、刊登、引用或向其他人分发。 本 1、经济面：宽财政、高杠杆，债务可持续性担忧持续 发酵；叠加政局不稳、避险情绪升温。 本轮发达经济体超长债利率逆势走升的 ...