Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The bond market is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with all Treasury bond futures closing lower. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and rising global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and 0.80% year - on - year increase; monthly PPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and - 1.90% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, a 0.47% increase from the previous month; M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, a 6.25% increase from the previous month; the manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, a 1.83% increase from the previous month [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.28, a - 0.51% change from the previous day; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9647, a 0.10% increase from the previous day. Other indicators such as SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, etc. also showed corresponding changes [9]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: On January 22, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 105.84 yuan, 108.15 yuan, and 112.17 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.02%, - 0.04%, - 0.05%, and - 0.07% respectively [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.018 yuan, 0.019 yuan, - 0.013 yuan, and 0.069 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 22, 2026, the central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Repo Rates**: The main term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.413%, 1.497%, 1.590%, and 1.557% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various spread indicators such as the inter - period spread of Treasury bond futures and the inter - variety spread between spot bonds and futures, including 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc. [26][29][35] V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the TS main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [38][40]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract are shown [46]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the TF main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [47]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract are shown [54]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: The implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the T main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [55]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract are shown [56]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: The implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the TL main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [61]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract are shown [67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline in repo rates, Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline in the basis of the 2603 contract [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Rising risk sentiment in the copper market supports copper prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,700, down 0.57%, and the night - session closing price was 100,270, down 0.43%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,840, up 0.62%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 321,730, a decrease of 121,398 from the previous day, and the open interest was 647,275, an increase of 772. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 28,201, an increase of 4,664, and the open interest was 316,000, a decrease of 1,559 [1] - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 143,173, a decrease of 2,408, and LME Copper inventory was 168,250, an increase of 8,850. The cancellation warrant ratio was 27.99%, a decrease of 1.38% [1] - **Spread Data**: The LME copper premium, Shanghai 1 bright copper price, and various spreads such as spot - to - futures near - month spread, near - month contract to continuous - first contract spread, etc., all showed different degrees of change compared with the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The Fed's preferred inflation indicator met expectations. The US November PCE price index was 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, with robust growth in personal spending. Pan Gongsheng said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - **Industry**: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid Corporation's fixed - asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared with the 14th Five - Year Plan. Ivanhoe Mines achieved its 2025 copper and zinc production targets. The union of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile condemned the company for illegally replacing workers during a 15 - day strike. In December 2025, China's copper ore concentrate imports increased by 7.05% month - on - month and 7.32% year - on - year, refined copper imports decreased by 2.19% month - on - month and 27.00% year - on - year, and scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month - on - month and 9.90% year - on - year. Japanese copper smelters are still negotiating 2026 TC/RC with global miners [1][3] Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view on the copper price trend [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the slight increase in the US GDP for the third quarter, which is above expectations, indicating a resilient economic performance [4] - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes suggest that maintaining stable interest rates for an extended period may be appropriate, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [4] - The report mentions the potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates in China, indicating a supportive monetary stance to stimulate economic growth [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 4.28% to 1803.00, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [5] - The Nasdaq Index rose by 0.91% to 23436.02, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.63% to 49384.01, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the US stock market [5] - Crude oil prices (ICE Brent) decreased by 1.29% to $64.40, while gold prices (London Gold Spot) increased by 2.18% to $4938.35, showing mixed trends in commodity markets [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.50% to 98.28, indicating a weakening dollar against other currencies [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26629.96, up by 0.17%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.14% to 4122.58, reflecting stability in the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets [5]

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 23 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货1月22日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.250 | 112.090 | 112.170 | 112.220 | -0.080 | -0.07 ...

2026 年 01 月 23 日 锌：具备向上弹性 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 24400 | 0.21% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3175 | 0.00% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 131273 | -14813 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10031 | -1448 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 118558 | -3135 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 228807 | -649 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 55 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -40.12 | 3.45 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保 证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期，本公司可能会 发出与本报告所载意 见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状 态。本公司对本报告所含信息可 在不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或 修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者并不能 依靠本报告以取代 行使独立判断。对投资者依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均 不承担任何法律责任。 本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发 他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊 发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为 "华泰期货研究院"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意 的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权利。 所有本报告中使用的商 ...

2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：风险情绪上升，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：具备向上弹性 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：交易重心上移 | 12 | | 钯：跟随上行 | 12 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 1、美国 Q3 实际 GDP 季环比终值小幅上修至 4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心 PCE 通胀保持在 2.9%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyu ...

Economic Policy - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, supporting mergers and acquisitions among retail pharmacies [1] Capital Market Developments - The People's Bank of China announced a 900 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a one-year term [3] - Public funds have focused on core sectors such as electronics and power equipment, with Zhongji Xuchuang becoming the largest holding stock, valued at 78.421 billion yuan [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 93.6 billion yuan in special bonds to support over 4,500 projects across various sectors, driving total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [3] Industry Highlights - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining attention, with Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO status changing to "inquiry" as it aims to become the first commercial aerospace stock [7] - Domestic AI chip company Suiyuan Technology has received approval for its IPO, aiming to raise 6 billion yuan for AI chip development [7] - The human-shaped robot sector remains active, with Zhejiang's innovation center completing a 450 million yuan Pre-A round of financing [7] Company Updates - Zhaoyi Innovation expects a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 46%, benefiting from AI computing demand [8] - ST Biology announced the termination of its major asset restructuring plan to acquire a 51% stake in Hunan Huize Biomedical Technology [9] - Xiaomi Group plans to repurchase up to 2.5 billion Hong Kong dollars of its Class B shares starting January 23 [10] - Alibaba has decided to support its chip subsidiary "Pingtouge" for future independent listing, initiating a restructuring process [11] - Intel reported a fourth-quarter revenue of 13.674 billion dollars, with a net loss of 591 million dollars, while its annual revenue was 52.853 billion dollars [11]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5814 元/吨，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.48%。硅铁主力合约 | | | | | SF2603 收于 5610 元/吨，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.97%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、央行行长潘功胜表示，2026 年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策， | | | | | 把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。今年降准降息还有一定 | | | | | 的空间。 | | | | | 2、本周，523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 89.3%，环比增 0.9%。原煤日均产量 | | 黑色 | 硅铁、 | 区间震荡 | 199.4 万吨，环比增 1.7 万吨，原煤库存 560.5 万吨，环比增 10.6 万吨 | | | 锰硅 | | 3、广东 20%左右的短流程钢企将在 1 月中下旬左右开始陆 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [4][14] - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0% in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% and retail sales growing by 3.7% [4][14] - The total population in China is expected to decrease by 3.39 million in 2025, with a birth rate of 7.92 million and a death rate of 11.31 million [4][14] Group 2 - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4%, while steel production will increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][14] - Steel exports are projected to reach a record high of 11.9019 million tons in 2025, marking a 7.5% increase year-on-year [4][14] - The average profit margin for 247 steel mills is reported at 40.69%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [5][15] Group 3 - The total inventory of five major steel products is 12.5708 million tons, with an increase of 10.07% week-on-week [5][15] - Rebar production has increased by 9.25 million tons to 199.55 million tons, while hot-rolled steel production has slightly decreased to 6.206 million tons [5][15] - The market for rebar is experiencing weak demand despite increased supply, leading to a continued narrow fluctuation in steel prices [5][15][16] Group 4 - The hot-rolled steel production has decreased slightly due to maintenance at one steel plant in North China and slow recovery at another in East China, with total inventory decreasing at a historically high rate for the lunar new year period [6][16] - Traders are adopting a cautious approach with low inventory and quick turnover strategies, anticipating continued weak supply and demand [6][16] - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate within the range of 3100-3200 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled steel is projected to range between 3250-3350 yuan/ton [7][17]