证券研究报告 建筑材料 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 12 日 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 朱芸 SAC：S1350524070001 zhuyun@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 房地产政策表述聚焦久期，顺周期依然为盾 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 内容目录 | 1. 板块跟踪 | | --- | | 1.1. 板块跟踪 | | 1.2. 行业动态 | | 2. 数据跟踪. | | 2.1. 水泥：仍然跌多涨少，下周或将延续跌势 . | | 2.2. 浮法玻璃：价格跌多涨少，交投不温不火. | | 2.3. 光伏玻璃：交投欠佳，库存缓增…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

AI基金汇添富红利增长混合A（006259）披露2025年一季报，第一季度基金利润2156.16万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0396元。报告期内，基金净值增 长率为2.35%，截至一季度末，基金规模为8.7亿元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金。截至4月24日，单位净值为1.514元。基金经理是劳杰男和黄耀锋，目前共同管理2只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至4月24 日，汇添富红利增长混合A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达5.86%；汇添富研究优选灵活配置混合最低，为4.16%。 基金管理人在一季报中表示，从基本面来看，一季度全 A 盈利预期开始改善，但盈利明显修复仍要等到通胀等价格指标修复，且在关税影响出口的情况 下，盈利预期或有波动。风格方面，关税压制短期风险偏好，波动率抬升、资金倾向于防御，红利风格或相对跑赢。后续随着内需的修复，其顺周期属性有 望跟随经济修复获得估值上升。本基金依然秉持行业配置相对均衡，在红利组合中优选成长估值匹配度较高、具有长期价值的优质企业。 截至4月24日，汇添富红利增长混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为3.04%，位于同类可比基金61/256；近半年复权单位净值增长率为-0.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to face significant pressure in 2024 due to falling coal prices, leading to an estimated 18.8% year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a further decline of 29.7% anticipated in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Industry Summary - The total revenue for the coal industry in 2024 is projected to be 1.3574 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 146.8 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.8% decline [2]. - In Q1 2025, the coal industry is expected to generate 279.5 billion yuan in revenue, down 17.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 28.65 billion yuan, representing a 29.7% decline [2]. - The supply-demand dynamics for thermal coal are expected to weaken, with a notable increase in coal imports and the release of production capacity in the latter half of 2024, leading to further price pressures [2]. Coal Segment Analysis - The coking coal segment is anticipated to see a revenue decline of 11.4% in 2024, with net profit expected to drop by 45.5% due to weak demand and policy constraints [3]. - Coking coal prices are influenced by the overall health of the black metal industry, with a decrease in demand from key sectors like real estate and infrastructure contributing to price declines [3]. Investment Logic - High-dividend coal companies are expected to exhibit defensive characteristics, with recommendations to focus on firms with strong resource endowments and stable performance, such as China Shenhua (601088), Shaanxi Coal (601225), and China Coal Energy (601898) [4]. - The coal-electricity joint operation model is seen as a way to mitigate cyclical fluctuations and benefit from price differentials between market and long-term contract coal prices, with suggested companies including Xinjie Energy (601918), Shaanxi Coal, and China Shenhua [5]. - The cyclical sector may benefit from economic stimulus policies, with expectations of increased domestic demand driven by government fiscal measures, recommending attention to Shanxi Coking Coal (000983), Huaibei Mining (600985), and Pingdingshan Coal (601666) [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fund issuance market has continued its recovery from March, with over 100 new funds launched in April, totaling nearly 100 billion yuan in issuance. The total number of new funds established this year exceeds 400, with a combined issuance scale of over 340 billion yuan, nearly half of which are equity funds [1]. Fund Issuance Overview - As of this year, 427 new funds have been established, an increase of 20 compared to the same period last year, with a total issuance scale of 342.46 billion yuan [1]. - The issuance scale of newly established equity funds accounts for nearly half of the total, with 255 new stock funds launched, a year-on-year increase of 70%, totaling 138.77 billion yuan, which represents 40.52% of the total fund issuance, a year-on-year growth of 206.43% [1]. - There are 20 new FOFs with an issuance scale of 23.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 456.44%, accounting for nearly 7% [1]. - Seven new QDIIs were established with an issuance scale of 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 74% [1]. - The issuance scales for 61 mixed funds and 77 bond funds were 20.19 billion yuan and 152.86 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 5.89% and 44.64%, both showing a year-on-year decline [1]. Index Fund Performance - A total of 271 index funds have been issued with a combined scale of 190.18 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 56%, showing a year-on-year growth of nearly 26% [2]. - Among these, passive index stock funds and enhanced index stock funds account for over 240 funds with an issuance scale exceeding 100 billion yuan [2]. - The largest single index fund issued is the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Comprehensive ETF Link, with a scale of nearly 5 billion yuan [2]. Market Outlook - Public fund institutions are generally optimistic about future opportunities in the equity market. Looking ahead to the second quarter, it is noted that with rising expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and increasing recession fears, investors should pay attention to the potential return of foreign capital [2]. - In terms of asset allocation, a "dividend + technology growth" barbell strategy is recommended for A-shares [2]. Investment Themes - The investment themes for the second quarter include three main lines: dividend defense during market fluctuations, technological advancements in emerging industries, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies [3]. - In the initial phase of the second quarter, the market is entering a period of fluctuations, suggesting a focus on defensive strategies in sectors such as utilities and banking [3]. - For technological advancements, attention should be given to innovations in AI applications, including humanoid robots, while also considering investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from policy stimuli and cyclical consumption [3].

截至2025年5月6日 13:40，中证主要消费指数(000932)上涨0.10%，成分股海南橡胶(601118)上涨2.67%，安迪苏(600299)上涨1.46%，安琪酵母(600298)上涨 1.45%，隆平高科(000998)上涨1.38%，新希望(000876)上涨1.36%。主要消费ETF(159672)上涨0.26%，最新价报0.78元。流动性方面，主要消费ETF盘中换手 6.04%，成交499.92万元。拉长时间看，截至4月30日，主要消费ETF近1月日均成交619.13万元。 申万宏源指出，节前年报和季报披露完毕，白酒增速放缓、整体承压、分化加剧、高端和区域头部企业相对具备韧性。大众品传统行业增长缓慢，但格局分 化，头部集中，成本红利释放推升盈利，零食、饮料、低度酒水等细分赛道具备结构性亮点，主要来自新品与渠道共振带来的快速增长。维持观点，经过调 整，板块头部企业已具备中期配置价值，大众食品防御性更强，白酒顺周期弹性更大，建议积极关注后续宏观经济政策的推出和落地效果。白酒：尽管短期 基本面仍有压力，但若25年下半年经济改善，叠加行业自身调整到位，则行业基本面有望触底，股价也将领先基本面调整到 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The market is transitioning from "weak reality, weak expectations" to "stable reality, strong expectations," with a focus on EPS and PE dynamics. The current trading logic reflects a typical "Davis Double Play" scenario, where PE fluctuations are crucial for market performance [5] - The report suggests that the cyclical recovery is expected to be sustainable, with potential policy support for domestic demand, particularly in consumption and manufacturing sectors. This is seen as a more favorable and sustainable choice compared to traditional investments [5] - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions indicate a turning point for many cyclical products, with EPS expected to bottom out before supply and demand, leading to a potential recovery in performance [5] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index (Shenwan) decreased by 2.1%, with sub-sectors like cement and glass fiber also showing declines of 2.2% and 2.8% respectively. Notable stock performances included Sichuan Jinding (+13.3%) and Hanjian Heshan (+8.0%) [9] 1.2. Industry Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, top 100 real estate companies spent 360.8 billion yuan on land, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. However, their sales totaled 1,119.86 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year [16] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting energy-saving and carbon-reduction technologies across various sectors, including construction materials [16] 2. Data Tracking 2.1. Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement is 387.7 yuan/ton, down 3.2 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 29.7 yuan/ton year-on-year. The cement inventory ratio is 61.7%, down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [17] 2.2. Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1,423.0 yuan/ton, up 1.3 yuan/ton month-on-month but down 393.7 yuan/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels have increased by 0.1% month-on-month [32] 2.3. Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 yuan/sqm, stable month-on-month but down 4.1 yuan/sqm year-on-year. The production capacity is 98,690 tons/day, up 2.1% month-on-month [37] 2.4. Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4,705.0 yuan/ton, down 40.0 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 525.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [44] 2.5. Carbon Fiber - The average price for large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 yuan/kg, stable month-on-month but down 2.0 yuan/kg year-on-year. The average operating rate for carbon fiber companies is 60.62%, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month [47] 3. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, highlighting stock prices, market capitalization, EPS, PE, and PB ratios for various firms in the construction materials sector [54]

Group 1: Core Views - The recent upgrades in stock ratings by brokerages are primarily concentrated in sectors with significant performance growth, rising industry sentiment, or turnaround situations, particularly in AI and robotics [2][5] - The number of stocks downgraded by brokerages has reached a year-to-date high, with notable downgrades in the coal and tourism sectors [5][6] Group 2: Upgraded Stocks - Multiple stocks in the AI and robotics sectors have received rating upgrades, including: - Platinum New Materials, with a projected net profit of 376 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [2] - Huichang Communications, expected to achieve a net profit of 29 million yuan in 2024, turning profitable with a 12.28% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 [2] - Beijing Junzheng, with Q1 revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a 5.3% year-on-year increase, and anticipated market recovery [3] - Keli Sensor, reporting a net profit of 76 million yuan in Q1, a nearly 76% year-on-year increase [3] - Nanshan Zhishang, recognized for its leading position in domestic wool spinning and new materials applications [3][4] Group 3: Downgraded Stocks - Several coal stocks have been downgraded, including: - Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei Shenma, downgraded to "overweight" due to weak coking coal prices [5] - Shanmei International, also downgraded to "overweight" despite low mining costs and potential production increases [5] - The tourism sector has seen downgrades, such as: - Jinjiang Hotels, with a Q1 net profit of 36 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year [5] - Miao Exhibition, downgraded due to declining revenue amid intensified competition [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - Brokerages are optimistic about AI and high-dividend sectors for May, with expectations of a continued oscillating market [7] - Recommendations include focusing on three main directions: financial dividends, self-sufficiency in industries like military, and domestic consumption [7] - The market is expected to follow a gentle recovery path, with attention on cyclical sectors and growth styles, particularly in AI and robotics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit and earnings per share, indicating strong operational efficiency and profitability despite revenue challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.716 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 109 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 183.7% [1]. - Basic earnings per share (EPS) reached 0.2266 yuan, up 212.6% year-on-year [1]. Business Segment Analysis - The cottonseed business has returned to normal operations, while the plant extraction business has exceeded expectations [2]. - The plant extraction segment generated revenue of 867 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with a gross margin improvement of 2.15 percentage points [2]. - The cottonseed segment reported revenue of 760 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, with a gross margin of approximately 6.1% [2]. Market Strategy - The company adopted a strategy of "price for volume," leading to increased sales volume and revenue growth in various product lines [3]. - The price of chili red pigment significantly decreased, resulting in a revenue increase of approximately 7% due to volume elasticity [3]. - The company capitalized on domestic raw material cost advantages to expand into overseas markets, with chili extract sales doubling and contributing to a revenue increase of about 24% [3]. Long-term Outlook - The company is focused on long-term advantages, expanding overseas planting bases, and making breakthroughs in new businesses such as traditional Chinese medicine and health products [3]. - The company anticipates maintaining high growth rates in performance as major products return to a cyclical uptrend [3]. Investment Recommendation - The company is a leading player in the plant extract sector, with stable profitability in key products and a strong growth trajectory in market share [4]. - The ongoing construction of the Zambia plantation is expected to further reduce costs, and the health product business shows significant potential for growth [4]. - Projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.67, 0.83, and 1.00 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 16.3X, 13.1X, and 10.9X, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

4月28日，银行ETF龙头（512820）爆量收涨0.81%，收盘价创历史新高。成交额达2.11亿元，环比激增 5倍以上！ 大盘全天弱势震荡，节前资金观望情绪浓郁，银行等高股息资产走强。建设银行、工商银行、江苏银 行、成都银行盘中价再创出历史新高！ 消息面上，高层会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。兜牢基层"三保"底线。适时降 准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力支持实体经济。 华宝证券认为，会议重在落实已有政策，暂未出台明显增量政策，市场对消费、地产等领域的博弈或阶 段性降温，叠加长假临近，市场风险偏好或不高。行业方面，重点关注高股息（银行、公用事业）的防 御性板块。（来源于华宝证券20250427《2025年4月政治局会议解读：落实"先手"政策，充实"后手"储 备》） 在全球贸易格局不确定性犹存背景下，盈利稳健，具备高股息特征的银行板块延续强势，银行ETF龙头 (512820)配置价值突出： 【资金重新锚定价值中枢，兼具高股息和顺周期特征的银行板块值得关注】 光大证券指出，4月上市公司财报集中披露，资金需要重 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation and cyclical investment opportunities in response to the current economic challenges and geopolitical tensions [4] - It suggests that the central government's recent policy adjustments indicate a shift towards prioritizing domestic demand and infrastructure investment as a more stable and controllable option compared to external factors [4] - The report anticipates that local government bond policies will accelerate, providing liquidity support for the economy, and predicts a potential early turnaround in cyclical sectors [4] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index rose by 0.2%, while the cement and glass fiber indices experienced declines of 1.0% and increases of 1.8% respectively [8] - Notable stock performances included gains from companies like Jianfeng Group (+14.1%) and losses from companies like Jingang Photovoltaic (-11.7%) [8] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 390.8 RMB/ton, down 1.8 RMB/ton month-on-month but up 35.7% year-on-year [15] - The cement inventory ratio stands at 61.8%, unchanged month-on-month but down 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [15] - The cement shipment rate is 47.6%, down 1.4 percentage points month-on-month and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1421.7 RMB/ton, up 0.7 RMB/ton month-on-month but down 402.5 RMB/ton year-on-year [31] - The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 5.618 million heavy boxes, down 0.1% month-on-month but up 2.4% year-on-year [31] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 RMB/sqm, unchanged month-on-month but down 4.1 RMB/sqm year-on-year [36] - The inventory days for photovoltaic glass have increased to 26.85 days, up 3.1% month-on-month and 44.7% year-on-year [36] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up 715.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [43] - The average price of electronic yarn is 9100.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up 1750.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [43] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month but down 2.0 RMB/kg year-on-year [46] - The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 60.19%, up 1.09 percentage points month-on-month and 11.45 percentage points year-on-year [46] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights ongoing efforts in various regions to stabilize the real estate market, including new housing plans in Qingdao and government initiatives in Guangdong [14] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the need to maintain stability in the real estate market and capital markets, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [14]