Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Central Bank's recent decision to raise the benchmark interest rate to 15% has raised concerns among economists about the sustainability of federal debt and the need for effective fiscal reforms to alleviate pressure on public finances [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Impact - The Central Bank's monetary policy committee unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate, marking a new high and raising market concerns about debt sustainability [1]. - Approximately 47% of federal public debt is linked to floating rate bonds, with a total stock of 3.75 trillion Brazilian Reais. A 1% increase in interest rates will raise debt costs by 37.5 billion Reais within a year [1]. - The recent 0.25 percentage point increase is estimated to lead to an additional expenditure of about 12.1 billion Reais over the next 12 months [2]. Group 2: Debt Projections - The total federal debt could approach the set limit of 8.5 trillion Reais by the end of 2025, up from 7.3 trillion Reais at the end of 2024, due to rising financing needs and increased borrowing costs [2]. - Interest payments on federal domestic currency debt are projected to reach 540.43 billion Reais over the next 12 months at current interest rates [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Concerns - Economists express that the tightening of monetary policy reflects market concerns over the ongoing expansion of fiscal policy, which exacerbates inflationary pressures [2][3]. - The reliance on debt to pay interest has created a vicious cycle, with warnings that without achieving a basic fiscal surplus, total debt will continue to rise [3]. - The urgency for coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is increasingly evident as Brazil faces the dual challenges of high interest rates and high debt levels [3].

Core Viewpoint - The volatility caused by U.S. tariff announcements is creating interesting investment opportunities in emerging markets [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Atanas Bostandjiev, CEO of asset management company Gemcorp, indicates that mispricing of risk and risk premiums is providing attractive entry points for investors [1] - Many investors currently perceive risks to be higher than they actually are, leading to inflated premiums [1] - The likelihood of these risks materializing is significantly lower than expected, suggesting a shift in investment strategies towards emerging markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Traders are taking profits, leading to a pullback in oil prices despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with prices still supported by risk premiums related to Iran and weakened expectations for a nuclear deal with the U.S. [1] Group 1 - Oil futures have retraced some of the gains from the previous day due to profit-taking by traders [1] - The market remains influenced by geopolitical concerns, particularly those centered around Iran, which have contributed to a recent technical rebound in oil prices [1] - Expectations regarding the U.S. nuclear deal have diminished, adding to the complexity of the oil market dynamics [1]

研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/12 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/06/11 | 4.422 | 4.551 | 3.225 | 2.534 | 3.445 | 3.117 | 0.264 | 3.243 | | 最新变化 | -0.050 | 0.010 | 0.023 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.020 | -0.003 | 0.030 | | 一周变化 | 0.066 | -0.054 | 0.021 | 0.008 | -0.046 | 0.001 | 0.053 | -0.008 | | 一月变化 | -0.045 | -0.118 | -0.128 | -0.144 | -0.252 | -0.180 | -0.099 | -0.205 | | 一年变化 | ...

Report Overview - The report provides an overview of the global asset market performance on June 10, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3]. Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Bond Yields**: Yields varied across major economies. For example, the US was at 4.472%, with a latest change of -0.004, a one - week change of 0.016, a one - month change of -0.001, and a one - year change of -0.075. Other economies like the UK, France, and Germany also had their respective yield figures and changes [3]. - **2 - year Bond Yields**: The US 2 - year bond yield was 4.040 on June 10, 2025, with a latest change of 0.120, a one - week change of 0.120, a one - month change of 0.040, and a one - year change of -0.900. Different economies had different trends in their 2 - year bond yields [3]. Exchange Rates - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies**: Against the Brazilian real, the rate was 5.574 on June 10, 2025, with a latest change of 0.28%, a one - week change of -1.13%, a one - month change of -1.78%. For other currencies like the Russian ruble, South African rand, etc., there were also corresponding rates and changes [3]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB was 7.188, the off - shore RMB was 7.189, the mid - price was 7.184, and the 12 - month NDF was 7.013 on June 10, 2025, with different changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods [3]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies**: Indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq had different closing prices, latest changes, one - week changes, one - month changes, and one - year changes on June 10, 2025. For example, the Dow Jones closed at 6038.810 with a latest change of 0.55% [3]. - **Emerging Economies**: Stock indices of emerging economies like the Russian index, Hang Seng Index, and上证综指 also showed various performance trends on June 10, 2025 [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Different credit bond indices including emerging economies' investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, US high - yield, and euro - zone high - yield had their respective closing prices and changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods on June 10, 2025 [3][4]. Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures - **Index Performance**: The A - share closed at 3384.82 with a decline of 0.44%. Other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, and ChiNext also had their closing prices and percentage changes [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 12.53 with a环比 change of -0.04. Different indices had different valuation and change figures [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 was -0.58 with a环比 change of -0.02. Different indices had different risk premium and change trends [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was -1243.05, and different market segments had different fund flow data [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 14153.59, and different indices had different trading volume and change figures [5]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of the IF contract was -24.47 with a premium/discount rate of -0.63% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures such as T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 had their respective closing prices and percentage changes on June 10, 2025 [6]. - The money market had different interest rates and daily changes, such as the R001 rate at 1.4107% with a daily change of -13.00 BP [6].

Market Review - Commodity prices have surged, with COMEX silver up 9.4%, coking coal up 7.2%, and IPE Brent crude oil up 6.2%, but this does not change the macro and industrial trends [1][2] - The increase in commodity prices is attributed to several factors: improved demand due to economic recovery, supply constraints, and the financial attributes of commodities influenced by a weaker dollar [1][2][3] Industry Focus - The consensus is that real estate is no longer the leading industry, and investors should focus on manufacturing, particularly high-end manufacturing and the automotive sector, especially new energy vehicles [4] - The automotive industry is experiencing intense competition, characterized by price wars and excess capacity, driven by weak domestic demand [4] Capacity Analysis - The analysis of capacity across various industries is crucial for future industrial layout, with specific attention to operating and financial leverage [5][6] - Industries with high non-current asset ratios and debt ratios, such as non-metallic minerals and oil extraction, face significant risks due to capacity and leverage expansion [6][7] Inventory Analysis - The automotive and pharmaceutical industries are currently in a passive inventory replenishment phase, with price reductions being a common strategy to address inventory buildup [8] Macro-Level Industry Concerns - The focus on funding issues behind capacity is critical, with significant accounts receivable in industrial enterprises indicating potential risks in production stability [9] - The risk of "triangle debts" in manufacturing has not been adequately addressed in policy discussions, highlighting a potential area of concern for investors [9]

Market Performance - The recent five trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.36%, the ChiNext Index by 1.40%, and the large-cap value index by 0.16%, while the large-cap growth index fell by 2.71%. The Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 1.22%, whereas the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 0.94%. Sectors such as environmental protection and biomedicine performed well, while automotive and electrical equipment lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, defined as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Index (EP) minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically significant levels. For instance, on April 26, 2022, the risk premium reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it was 4.08%. As of January 19, 2024, the indicator stood at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4%. As of May 30, 2025, the indicator was at 3.90%, with the two-standard deviation boundary set at 4.75% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of May 30, 2025, the CSI All Index's PETTM was at the 50th percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 61% and 48%, respectively. The ChiNext Index was close to 11%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were at 30% and 32%. The ChiNext Index's valuation style is relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index indicates a cyclical pattern of bear markets every three years, followed by bull markets. Historical declines ranged from 40% to 45%, with the current adjustment starting in the first quarter of 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 8.5 billion yuan, with margin trading increasing by approximately 720 million yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 10.687 billion yuan [4]. AI and Machine Learning Applications - The use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for modeling price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes. The latest focus is on sectors such as banking [3][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily attributed to the "Trump premium" rather than economic cycles or inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Treasury Yields - The long-end Treasury yield increase cannot be solely explained by fundamental factors, as the current rise is significantly higher than typical scenarios of "recession" or "soft landing" [1][2]. - The recent economic growth in the U.S. is marginally weakening under fiscal stimulus, with soft data declines and tariff impacts not favoring long-term economic growth [2]. - The "Trump premium" is influenced by several factors, including Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating, the passage of the "beautiful big law" leading to a projected $3.1 trillion deficit over the next decade, and uncertainties surrounding Trump's long-term reforms [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook on Treasury Yields - There is potential for further decline in Treasury yields, especially with the negative impacts of tariffs yet to fully materialize and the possibility of the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts [4]. - The projected long-term deficit growth may not fully reflect the fiscal revenue from tariffs, suggesting that the actual deficit expansion might be less severe than anticipated [4]. - Long-term Treasury yields exceeding the nominal growth rate in the U.S. could lead to unsustainable interest payment pressures, indicating a need for a reduction in long-end rates [6]. Group 3: Long-term Debt Solutions - The U.S. may face several long-term debt resolution strategies, including painful deficit tightening, partial restructuring of interest payments, or yield curve control (YCC) [8]. - The likelihood of painful deficit tightening seems low under the current two-party electoral system, as reducing spending programs may not garner sufficient voter support [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of understanding value investing and critiques common Wall Street theories, particularly focusing on the misleading nature of terms like EBITDA, EMH, and Beta, as emphasized by investment legends like Buffett, Graham, and Fisher [1][3][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Philosophy - The article begins by highlighting the insights of Yang Yuebin, a fund manager who recently attended the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, emphasizing the essence of value investing through the "duck-rabbit illusion" [1][6]. - It references Graham's warnings about the dangers of superficial knowledge in investing and the misleading theories that can arise from it [2][3]. Critique of Wall Street Theories - The author critiques the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Beta, and EBITDA, arguing that these concepts mislead investors and undermine the foundations of modern portfolio theory [3][4]. - Buffett's repeated criticisms of these theories are noted, suggesting they challenge the prevailing investment philosophies in both Western and emerging markets [4][7]. Risk and Return Analysis - The article stresses that investment decisions should be based solely on risk and return analysis, without unnecessary complications [4][5]. - It discusses the psychological aspect of investing, using the "duck-rabbit illusion" to illustrate how different perspectives can lead to varying interpretations of risk and return [5][6]. Misinterpretation of EBITDA - The article delves into the pitfalls of using EBITDA as a measure of profitability, arguing that it ignores essential costs like depreciation, which can lead to significant misjudgments about a company's financial health [11][12]. - Buffett's disdain for EBITDA is highlighted, with examples illustrating how it can mislead investors regarding a company's true earnings potential [11][12][19]. Conclusion and Future Outlook - The article concludes by emphasizing the need for investors to be wary of misleading financial jargon and to maintain a clear understanding of risk and return to avoid falling into the "duck-rabbit illusion" [23][24]. - It reflects on Buffett's legacy and the importance of his teachings in guiding future investors [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) warns that increasing investor concerns about U.S. assets, following Trump's tariffs, could lead to significant disruptions in the global financial system [1] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Investors are experiencing heightened risk aversion towards U.S. assets, leading to a "unconventional shift" away from traditional safe havens like the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The unpredictability of U.S. policies is causing investors to demand higher risk premiums for U.S. assets, potentially undermining confidence in the dollar as a global reserve currency [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The ECB notes that asset valuations remain high, particularly after market rebounds triggered by policy adjustments from Trump [1] - Concentrated investments in U.S. tech stocks indicate that the market is still vulnerable to sudden volatility [1] Group 3: Risk Assessment - The ECB highlights that investors may be underestimating the likelihood and impact of adverse scenarios, especially as rising uncertainty makes tail risks more apparent [1]