Group 1 - London gold prices are currently experiencing fluctuations, trading between $3307.79 and $3316.81, reflecting a short-term bearish trend influenced by the subtle progress in US-China trade negotiations [1][3] - The US Trade Representative indicated that there would be no breakthrough in the current round of trade talks, leading to sustained market concerns over trade disputes, which has established a key support level for gold at $3300 [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, reaching 73.9 million ounces by the end of June, highlighting gold's strategic value as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - Technically, London gold is at a critical testing point of the bullish trend line between $3320 and $3330; a significant drop below this support could trigger a sell-off, while a breakout above $3350 could open up upward potential to $3385 [3] - The current market dynamics are shaped by the interplay of policy cycles and geopolitical risks, with the US Congressional Budget Office predicting a fiscal deficit rate above 6% for 2025, which may elevate inflation expectations and reinforce gold's anti-inflation properties [4] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding US military actions against Iran, has raised concerns about potential disruptions in the energy supply chain, providing long-term support for gold prices [4] Group 3 - Gold ETF fund flows have shown divergence, with a net inflow of 16.7 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, but a recent slowdown in ETF holdings growth indicates cautious sentiment in the market [4] - Jinsheng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, offers a robust trading solution with a compliance framework that includes bank custody, independent audits, and risk reserves, ensuring transparency and security for investors [5] - The company has implemented a "zero commission + ultra-low spread" strategy, with a spread as low as $0.38 per ounce, providing significant cost savings for investors in a volatile market [5] Group 4 - The platform supports MT4/MT5 systems with rapid order execution speeds and low slippage rates, enhancing the trading experience for investors during high volatility periods [6] - Looking ahead, London gold is expected to exhibit a "volatile upward" trend, with potential to break through the $3400 mark as Fed rate cut expectations materialize [7] - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of "buying on dips and dynamic profit-taking," with specific entry and exit points to maximize returns while managing risks effectively [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report - Report Date: July 30, 2025 - Report Team: Macro Team of the Research Center [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on July 29, 2025: The yields varied widely across countries, e.g., the US was 4.321%, the UK was 4.632%, and China was 1.747% [2] - Latest Changes: Yields in most countries had small changes, with the US down 0.091, while France, Germany, etc., had increases [2] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: There were different trends. For example, the UK had a 0.064 increase in a week, 0.179 in a month, and 0.510 in a year [2] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on July 29, 2025: The US was 3.910%, the UK was 3.890%, etc. [2] - Latest Changes: The US had no change, while Germany increased by 0.023 [2] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: Different trends were observed, e.g., the US had a 0.030 increase in a week, 0.010 in a month, and - 0.510 in a year [2] Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates - Rates on July 29, 2025: Against the dollar, the Brazilian real was 5.575, the South African rand was 17.888, etc. [2] - Latest Changes: The Brazilian real decreased by 0.25%, while the South African rand increased by 0.06% [2] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: Different trends were shown, e.g., the Brazilian real had a 0.17% increase in a week, 2.12% in a month, and - 0.41% in a year [2] Stock Indices of Major Economies - Closing Prices on July 29, 2025: The S&P 500 was 6370.860, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44632.990, etc. [2] - Latest Changes: The S&P 500 decreased by 0.30%, while the French CAC increased by 0.72% [2] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: Different trends were present, e.g., the S&P 500 had a 0.97% increase in a week, 2.79% in a month, and 15.73% in a year [2] Credit Bond Indices - Latest Changes: The US investment - grade credit bond index increased by 0.53%, the emerging economies investment - grade credit bond index increased by 0.31%, etc. [2][3] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: Different trends were seen, e.g., the US investment - grade credit bond index had a 0.41% increase in a week, 0.20% in a month, and 5.76% in a year [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices: A - shares were 3609.71, the CSI 300 was 4152.02, etc. [4] - Price Changes (%): A - shares increased by 0.33%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.39%, etc. [4] Valuation - PE (TTM): The CSI 300 was 13.35, the S&P 500 was 27.03, etc. [4] -环比 Changes: The CSI 300 decreased by 0.17, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.08, etc. [4] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - Year Interest Rate: The S&P 500 was - 0.62, the German DAX was 2.12 [4] -环比 Changes: The S&P 500 increased by 0.10, the German DAX decreased by 0.07 [4] Fund Flows - Latest Values: A - shares had a net outflow of 662.18, the main board had a net outflow of 680.95, etc. [4] - 5 - Day Average Values: A - shares had a net outflow of 521.14, the main board had a net outflow of 505.71, etc. [4] Trading Volume - Latest Values: The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a trading volume of 18031.71, the CSI 300 had a trading volume of 4287.64, etc. [4] -环比 Changes: The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 608.64, the CSI 300 increased by 219.71, etc. [4] Main Contract Premiums and Discounts - Basis: IF was - 10.62, IH was 5.41, IC was - 93.13 [4] - Premium/Discount Ratios: IF was - 0.26%, IH was 0.19%, IC was - 1.47% [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data Closing Prices - T00 was 108.130, TF00 was 105.545, T01 was 108.115, TF01 was 105.610 [5] Price Changes (%) - T00 increased by 0.20%, TF00 increased by 0.14%, T01 increased by 0.20%, TF01 increased by 0.16% [5] Money Market - The 3 - month SHIBOR was 1.5600%, with a daily change of 0.00 BP [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: Yields of major economies' 10 - year treasuries showed various changes. For example, the US 10 - year treasury yield was 4.390 on 2025/07/25, with a latest change of - 0.008, a one - week change of - 0.028, a one - month change of 0.111, and a one - year change of 0.231 [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: The US 2 - year treasury yield was 3.880 on 2025/07/25, with a latest change of 0.050, a one - week change of 0.000, a one - month change of 0.020, and a one - year change of - 0.560 [2]. - **Dollar - to - Emerging Economies' Currency Exchange Rates**: The dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.564 on 2025/07/25, with a latest change of 0.79%, a one - week change of - 0.27%, a one - month change of 1.41%, and a one - year change of 1.49% [2]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: The S&P 500 index was 6388.640 on 2025/07/25, with a latest change of 0.40%, a one - week change of 1.46%, a one - month change of 3.49%, and a one - year change of 14.32% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.25%, a one - week change of 0.56%, a one - month change of 0.36%, and a one - year change of 4.76% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share index closed at 3593.66 with a decline of 0.33%. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 27.10 with a环比 change of 0.10 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 933.40, and the 5 - day average was - 399.85 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 17873.37, with a环比 change of - 573.69 [4]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of the IF contract was - 11.16, with a premium/discount rate of - 0.27% [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data - The T00 treasury futures closed at 108.180 with a decline of 0.28%. The R001 capital interest rate was 1.5522% with a daily change of - 5.00 BP [5]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 4.63% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.76%. In contrast, the large-cap value index fell by 0.11%, and the large-cap growth index increased by 2.41% [1] - The construction materials and coal sectors performed well, whereas the banking and telecommunications sectors lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, defined as the difference between the static PE of the CSI All Share Index and the yield of 10-year government bonds, has shown significant historical extremes. As of April 26, 2022, it reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it was 4.08%. The latest reading on January 19, 2024, was 4.11%, marking the fifth instance since 2016 where it exceeded 4% [1] - As of July 25, 2025, the risk premium indicator stands at 3.35%, with the two-standard-deviation boundary at 4.76% [1] Valuation Levels - As of July 25, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's PE TTM percentile is at 67%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 indices are at 68% and 62%, respectively, while the ChiNext Index is at approximately 26%. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are at 49% and 38%, indicating that the ChiNext Index is relatively undervalued compared to historical averages [2] Long-term Market Trends - The Shenzhen 100 Index has historically experienced bear markets every three years, followed by bull markets. The last adjustment began in Q1 2021, suggesting that the current market has ample time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 4.3 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased by approximately 36.9 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 181.79 billion yuan [4] AI and Machine Learning Applications - A convolutional neural network (CNN) model has been utilized to analyze graphical price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes. The latest focus is on sectors such as non-ferrous metals [3][10]

Report Information - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Global Asset Market Performance and Related Trading Data Key Points of Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 23, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.383%, 4.634%, 3.299% respectively, with various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 23, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.850%, 3.876%, 1.839% respectively, with different changes over different time - spans [3] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On July 23, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.520, with a latest change of - 0.81%, and different changes in other time periods [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 23, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6358.910, with a latest change of 0.78%, and different changes in weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. Other indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, etc., also had their respective performances [3] Credit Bond Indices - The US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc., had different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3][4] Key Points of Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3582.30, 4119.77, 2801.20 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and other indices were 13.53, 11.44, etc., with corresponding环比changes [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.68, with a环比change of - 0.07, and the German DAX had its own values [5] Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc., were - 1079.62, - 851.71, etc., with different 5 - day average values [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were 18646.00, 4703.31, etc., with corresponding环比changes [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 10.57, 1.60, - 76.76 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Key Points of Treasury Futures Trading Data Treasury Futures - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.520, 105.790, 108.600, 105.875 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [6] Funding Rates - The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4268%, 1.5017%, 1.5510% respectively, with corresponding daily changes in basis points [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights that equity assets have shown strong performance, particularly in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets and technology growth sectors, while commodity performance has been mixed [2][5][11] - The correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has increased, while the negative correlation between A-shares and Chinese government bonds remains strong [2][11][12] - The risk premium level for A-shares has decreased for seven consecutive weeks, with the current level at 5.8%, indicating a slight increase in relative value compared to historical averages [16][19] Group 2 - In the equity market, the Asia-Pacific region has outperformed, with notable gains in technology growth stocks; for instance, the Hang Seng Technology Index surged by 5.5% [5][24][28] - Emerging markets in Asia, such as the A-share ChiNext Index and Korea's KOSDAQ, have also shown strong performance, with increases of 3.2% and 2.5% respectively [24][28] - In contrast, Latin American markets, including Brazil and Mexico, have faced continued pressure and declines [24][28] Group 3 - The report indicates that the Chinese bond yield curve is "bull steep," with a general downward trend in yields for longer maturities, while the U.S. bond yield curve is "bear steep," reflecting rising yields [46][50] - Specifically, the 10-year to 2-year yield spread in China has widened, indicating a bullish sentiment in the bond market [46][50] - In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield has increased to 4.47%, driven by inflation expectations, while the market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [46][59] Group 4 - Commodity prices have shown overall increases, but with significant differentiation; for example, iron ore and natural rubber prices rose over 3%, while crude oil prices fell by 1.5% to 1.6% [63][64] - The report notes that the U.S. dollar continues to appreciate, although at a slower pace compared to previous weeks, with major currencies like the euro and yen depreciating against it [63][64] - Inventory levels for gold and silver have increased, contrary to the average declines seen over the past three years, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [64][71][75]

Core Insights - The market may be underestimating the long-term inflation risks in the U.S., as highlighted by a recent Deutsche Bank report, which indicates that despite stable inflation expectation indicators, deeper analysis reveals that genuine concerns about future inflation are nearing a decade-high level [1][2] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - Key indicators for long-term inflation expectations, such as the 5-year, 5-year forward breakeven inflation rate and inflation swaps, have recently risen to near twelve-month highs, yet remain within a controlled range [1] - The apparent calm in inflation expectations is misleading, as a "risk premium" indicator, which reflects true inflation concerns after stripping out oil price volatility, has surged to its highest level since 2014 [2][5] Group 2: Oil Price Influence - The correlation between oil prices and long-term inflation expectation indicators is significant, with a reported 75-80% correlation since the mid-2014 oil price crash [2] - After removing the influence of oil prices, the residual inflation expectations have shown a notable increase, approaching the highest levels since late 2016 to early 2017 during the "Trump reflation trade" period [2] Group 3: Policy Uncertainty - Current inflation expectations are primarily driven by policy uncertainty, particularly regarding the unpredictable tariff policies of the Trump administration and ongoing challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve [5] - If the current administration follows through on its tariff and Federal Reserve policy threats, the existing risk premium could further escalate [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report - Report Date: July 16, 2025 - Report Team: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 15, 2025, yields in different countries varied, e.g., the US was 4.483%, the UK was 4.624%, etc. - Latest changes ranged from -0.026% (France) to 0.048% (US). - One - week changes were between -0.008% (UK) and 0.082% (US). - One - month changes were from -0.012% (Japan) to 0.178% (Germany). - One - year changes were from -0.664% (Japan) to 0.500% (UK) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 15, 2025, the US was 3.900%, the UK was 3.830%, etc. - Latest changes were from -0.023% (Italy) to 0.040% (US). - One - week changes: some data were missing, with others ranging from -0.037% (UK) to 0.074% (Australia). - One - month changes were from -0.028% (Italy) to 0.170% (US). - One - year changes were from -1.345% (Italy) to 0.432% (Japan) [3] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On July 15, 2025, the rate against the Brazilian real was 5.557, etc. - Latest changes were from -0.56% (Brazil) to 0.33% (South Korean won). - One - week changes were from -0.38% (Thai baht) to 2.00% (Brazil). - One - month changes were from -1.41% (South African rand) to 1.06% (South Korean won). - One - year changes were from -11.41% (Thai baht) to 1.77% (Brazil) [3] RMB Exchange Rates - On July 15, 2025, the on - shore RMB was 7.183, the off - shore RMB was 7.185, etc. - Latest changes were from 0.01% (RMB central parity rate) to 0.17% (off - shore RMB). - One - week changes were from -0.05% (RMB central parity rate) to 0.06% (on - shore RMB). - One - month changes were from -0.35% (RMB central parity rate) to -0.02% (RMB 12 - month NDF). - One - year changes were from -1.43% (off - shore RMB) to 0.29% (RMB central parity rate) [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 15, 2025, the S&P 500 was 6243.760, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44023.290, etc. - Latest changes were from -1.15% (Spanish index) to 1.60% (Hang Seng Index). - One - week changes were from -1.45% (Spanish index) to 4.07% (Thai index). - One - month changes were from -0.34% (Mexican index) to 8.98% (South Korean index). - One - year changes were from -11.51% (Thai index) to 38.15% (Hang Seng Index) [3] Credit Bond Indices - Latest changes were from -0.24% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.11% (Eurozone investment - grade credit bond index). - One - week changes were from -0.34% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.18% (Eurozone high - yield credit bond index). - One - month changes were from 0.16% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 1.31% (Emerging - market high - yield credit bond index). - One - year changes were from 4.75% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 13.83% (Emerging - market high - yield credit bond index) [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices: A - shares were 3505.00, CSI 300 was 4019.06, etc. - Percentage changes were from -0.42% (A - shares) to 1.73% (ChiNext). Valuation - PE (TTM): CSI 300 was 13.32, S&P 500 was 26.55, etc. -环比 changes were from -0.11% (S&P 500) to -0.01% (CSI 300). Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate: S&P 500 was -0.72, German DAX was 2.15. -环比 changes were from -0.04% (S&P 500) to 0.04% (German DAX). Fund Flows - Latest values were from -1048.16 (A - shares) to -148.29 (CSI 300). - 5 - day average values were from -566.14 (A - shares) to -23.58 (CSI 300). Trading Volume - Latest values were from 798.06 (SSE 50) to 16120.48 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets). -环比 changes were from -102.33 (SSE 50) to 1533.09 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets). Basis and Spread - Basis: IF was -38.46, IH was -13.03, IC was -10.56. - Spread: IF was -0.96%, IH was -0.47%, IC was -0.18% [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data Treasury Futures - Closing prices: T00 was 108.890, TF00 was 106.025, etc. - Percentage changes were from -0.10% (T01) to -0.07% (TF00). Funding Rates - R001 was 1.5745%, R007 was 1.5877%, SHIBOR - 3M was 1.5590%. - Daily changes (BP) were from 0.00 (SHIBOR - 3M) to 5.00 (R007) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a strong performance in commodities, with a notable increase in copper prices, while equity markets show a divergence in performance across regions, particularly with European markets outperforming the US and Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Performance - Commodity prices continued to strengthen, with the CRB/Nanhua index rising and the increase in COMEX copper closing at a significant 10.9% [1]. - Equity performance showed increased divergence, with US stocks declining while the dollar strengthened [1]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exhibited a strong positive correlation with US and Japanese stocks, while A-shares showed a strong negative correlation with Chinese government bonds [1]. Group 2: Equity Markets - European stock markets outperformed those in the US and Japan, with the German DAX and STOXX50 leading the gains, while US stocks experienced a broad pullback [2]. - Emerging markets saw strong performances from Vietnam and South Korea, with the Ho Chi Minh index rising by 5.1% and the Korean Composite Index increasing by 4.0% [2]. - In contrast, other emerging markets like India and Brazil showed weaker performance, with Brazil's IBOVESPA dropping by 3.6% [2]. Group 3: Bond Markets - China's bond market exhibited a "bear flat" pattern, with AAA-rated credit bond yields decreasing in the short term and increasing in the long term [2]. - The US bond market showed a "bear steep" pattern, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield influenced by inflation expectations, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September decreased compared to the previous week [2]. Group 4: Commodities and Currency - Commodity prices continued to rise, with 12 out of 14 types of futures contracts increasing, particularly in copper, coking coal, and silver, while nickel saw a decline of 1.1% [3]. - Since the beginning of the year, copper has shown a cumulative increase of 39.2%, with inventory levels for gold and silver decreasing [3]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.9%, reversing its previous depreciation, while the euro, pound, and yen depreciated against the dollar, although they have appreciated relative to the dollar since the start of the year [3].

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 0.98% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.36%. The large-cap value index fell by 0.18%, and the large-cap growth index increased by 0.69%. The Shanghai 50 Index gained 0.60%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 2.29%. Real estate and steel sectors performed well, while coal and banking sectors lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium. Historical extreme bottoms have shown this data to be at two standard deviations above the mean, with notable instances in 2012, 2018, and 2020. As of January 19, 2024, the indicator was at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 to exceed 4%. As of July 11, 2025, the indicator was at 3.57%, with the two standard deviation boundary at 4.76% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of July 11, 2025, the CSI All Index's PE TTM percentile was at 63%. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 were at 68% and 61%, respectively. The ChiNext Index was close to 21%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were at 42% and 31%. The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The Shenzhen 100 Index has experienced bear markets approximately every three years, followed by bull markets. The last adjustment began in Q1 2021, showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle from the bottom [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 3 billion yuan, and margin trading increased by approximately 14.1 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 1.4748 trillion yuan [2]. Neural Network Analysis - A convolutional neural network (CNN) was utilized to model price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes. The latest focus is on sectors such as banking [9].