原油方面，目前炒作核心点就还是俄乌的和平谈判情况，特朗普不断施压极力促成俄乌在圣诞之前达成和平协议，给到原油 一定压力，但是目前的消息看乌克兰对于领土问题寸步不让，这让俄罗斯也陷入僵持状态，但是从市场表现来看，原油多头 完全没有延续性，前两个交易日反弹小幅突破了原本的下行趋势线，但是上个交易日也是再度回落重回下行趋势运行，我们 跟大家一直分享的原油反弹空的思路也是反复在对线，目前继续保持即可，关注56附近强支撑，这个位置也是多头最后防守 线，一旦跌破油价可能大跌，再次之前保持反弹空的节奏，小反弹小空，大反弹大空即可。 黄金来回整理等降息，原油重回下行格局！ 随着美联储新一轮利率决议的临近，市场表现越发谨慎，随着上个交易日美国空缺职位数据公布，整体数据表现良好，显示 目前就业市场状态的韧性十足，加剧了市场鹰派降息的预期，美元指数小幅回升，黄金在回落之后低位依旧具备吸引力，然 后多头延续性不佳，相对而言，白银刷新历史记录的强势，目前可以说是在白银的带动下，黄金才会有这样的表现了，其次 俄乌和平谈判搁置，避险情绪再度有所升温，短期市场无疑是在等待美联储利率决议以及后续对货币政策的态度预期而带来 的新指引，短期市场整 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, before the December FOMC, employment data showed a structural divergence. The "small non - farm" ADP improved marginally, while the overall labor market continued to cool according to the October JOLTS data. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose, the US dollar index returned to 99.2, and the prices of different commodities showed various trends. In China, the economy is expected to continue to improve in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and more active macro - policies will be implemented. The A - share market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the bond market's short - term adjustment may be coming to an end [2][3] - Silver soared above $60 due to supply constraints and is expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of a pullback after the Fed's interest - rate decision. Copper prices fell due to concerns about the economic outlook and high prices, and are expected to oscillate. Aluminum prices adjusted due to the expected hawkish interest - rate cut. Alumina prices are expected to decline due to supply overcapacity. Cast aluminum is in a state of oscillatory adjustment due to weakening supply and demand. Zinc prices are oscillating and waiting for the interest - rate meeting's guidance. Lead prices are adjusting with limited downward space. Tin prices are expected to make a small - scale high - level adjustment. Industrial silicon prices are falling due to poor demand. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak supply and demand and falling costs. Iron ore prices are under pressure due to high inventories. Coking coal and coke prices are continuing to weaken due to high imports and weak demand. Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to Argentina's tariff cuts and other factors. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range waiting for the MPOB report [4][6][8][10][11][12][15][16][17][19][20][21][23][25] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: Before the December FOMC, the "small non - farm" ADP showed short - term stabilization, with an average weekly increase of 4,750 private - sector jobs in the four weeks up to November 22. However, the October JOLTS data indicated that the overall labor market continued to cool, with job vacancies rising to a five - month high, a more than 4% decline in recruitment, layoffs reaching 1.85 million (the highest since early 2023), and the voluntary resignation rate dropping to a five - year low. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.18%, the US dollar index returned to 99.2, the US stock market fluctuated and diverged, gold closed up, silver rose above $60, copper prices fell 1.3%, and crude oil continued to weaken [2] - Domestic: China will implement more active macro - policies in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period to ensure a reasonable economic growth rate. The A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume on Tuesday, and is expected to oscillate in the short term. The bond market recovered slightly, and the short - term adjustment may be ending. Attention should be paid to November's price and financial data and the Central Economic Work Conference [3] Precious Metals - Silver prices soared above $60, driving up the prices of other precious metals. The World Silver Association predicts that industrial demand will continue to grow until 2030. Silver prices are supported by low supply, falling global inventories, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and being included in the US critical minerals list. Traders expect an 89.6% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut this week. The current bullish sentiment towards silver among funds remains strong, but there is a risk of a pullback after the Fed's interest - rate decision [4][5] Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper tested the 91,000 - yuan level, and LME copper fell from a high. The spot market for electrolytic copper had light trading. Trump's remarks on the Fed's rate - cut decision and tariff policies, along with a predicted 87% probability of a rate cut in the Thursday meeting, suggest that this may be the last hawkish rate cut of the year. Concerns about the economic outlook before the US rate cut and high copper prices in China, combined with weak demand and the strengthening US dollar, led to a decline in copper prices. Copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6][7] Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,825 yuan/ton, down 1.71%. The LME aluminum price also fell. The market expects the Fed to make a third consecutive rate cut, and the better - than - expected labor data strengthens the expectation of a hawkish rate cut. The fundamentals of supply and demand are stable, but the previous upward trend in copper prices that drove up aluminum prices has temporarily ended. Aluminum prices are adjusting at a high level [8][9] Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,546 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The supply of alumina continues to be in surplus, and there is no sign of large - scale active production cuts. The expected weak balance between supply and demand means that the weak trend of alumina prices is difficult to change in the short term [10] Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,810 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The decline in the price of scrap aluminum due to the high - level adjustment of Shanghai aluminum affected the cost side. On the consumption side, the volatile aluminum prices made downstream consumption cautious. On the supply side, some enterprises suffered losses due to the rapid rise in aluminum prices, and their production started to decline slightly. Both supply and demand weakened slightly, and cast aluminum is in an oscillatory adjustment state [11] Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc showed a weak intraday oscillation and a high - opening and low - closing at night. The Swedish mining company Boliden plans to reduce its capital expenditure in 2026 and focus on existing core projects. The market expects a hawkish rate cut by the Fed, and the strengthening US dollar suppresses zinc prices. The downstream is still afraid of high prices, and zinc prices are oscillating and waiting for the guidance of the interest - rate meeting [12][14] Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased in position and fell during the day and oscillated downward at night. The decline in market sentiment and the technical adjustment of LME lead led to a follow - up decline in Shanghai lead. The pressure on the supply side has weakened marginally due to increased maintenance of primary and secondary smelters, and the demand for automotive starting batteries is good. The social inventory remains at a low level for the year, providing support for lead prices. It is expected that Shanghai lead will continue to adjust in the short term, but the supply reduction and stable demand limit the adjustment space [15] Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin showed a weak intraday oscillation and a narrow - range oscillation at night. The better - than - expected US employment data and the approaching Fed meeting made funds cautious, leading to a reduction in positions and a high - level adjustment of futures prices. The armed conflict in eastern Congo has not eased, but the market has priced in the impact on tin - ore transportation, and production has not been substantially affected. Higher tin prices have further suppressed consumption, and social inventories have continued to increase. Short - term tin prices lack upward momentum and are expected to make a small - scale high - level adjustment waiting for guidance [16] Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon oscillated weakly. The demand for industrial silicon is weak. On the supply side, Xinjiang maintains an 85% operating rate, production in the southwest has declined significantly during the dry season, and there is no expectation of increased production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia. On the demand side, the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises is poor, the production schedule of silicon wafers and battery cells is declining, and the actual demand for centralized - type photovoltaic installations is decreasing. The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17][18] Steel - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated weakly. The spot market is weak, with poor demand due to the cold wave. The willingness of traders in the Northeast to store steel for the winter is low. The supply and demand of steel are both weak. The reduction in rebar production has accelerated, and the supply - demand relationship has improved, with inventories continuing to decline, strengthening the support for rebar. The supply - demand data of hot - rolled coils has changed little, with a loose supply - demand situation and high - level inventory pressure. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak supply - demand drivers and falling costs [19] Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. As of December 1, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports reached 160.2398 million tons, an increase of 1.0829 million tons from the previous Monday. The supply of iron ore is strong and the demand is weak, with continuous inventory increases. This week, the overseas iron - ore arrivals have decreased while shipments have increased, both at high levels, and the port inventory has increased at a high level. On the demand side, steel - mill profits have shrunk, the scale of blast - furnace maintenance has expanded, and pig - iron production has declined. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate under pressure [20] Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures fell. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and port inventories are rising. Domestic mine production is stable, and upstream inventories have increased significantly. Coke - oven operations have increased, but downstream demand is weak, with slow coke sales and increasing inventories. The demand for blast - furnace raw materials is poor as the steel market enters the off - season. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue to weaken [21][22] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures closed down. The December USDA report showed that the US 2025/2026 soybean yield and export demand were not adjusted, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels. Argentina's soybean production remained at 48.5 million tons, and Brazil's remained at 175 million tons, with a slight increase in the world's soybean ending inventory. Argentina is reducing export tariffs on agricultural products, increasing the export pressure on the international market. The state - reserve will release 512,500 tons of imported soybeans on the 11th. Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [23][24] Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures closed down. The USDA report shows that the global 2025/26 palm - oil production is expected to be 80.016 million tons, a downward revision of 800,000 tons from the previous month's estimate, and the ending inventory is expected to be 15.206 million tons, a downward revision of 383,000 tons. The MPOB reported that floods have affected palm - oil harvesting and transportation, impacting November's production. The global palm - oil supply and demand remain in a relatively tight balance, with production growth matching demand growth. Palm - oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term waiting for the MPOB report [25][26]

智通财经APP获悉，美联储即将于北京时间周四凌晨3点公布最新利率决议。在经历了一段时间对于美 联储决策方向的明显犹豫之后，市场目前已基本确信，美联储将连续第三次降息25个基点，使联邦基金 利率降至3.5%-3.75%。 多重变量交织 梅里克预计，在本周的政策会议上很可能再次出现异议投票，并伴有其他多个"软性异议"，这些异议将 在"点阵图"上体现不同的观点。"点阵图"以匿名方式展示了19位会议参与者(包括12位有投票权的成员) 各自对利率前景的展望。梅里克补充称，尽管有"充分的理由"支持美联储在本周的连续第三次降息，但 双方都有论据支持。 美联储前货币事务主管、现任耶鲁大学教授比尔·英格利希(Bill English)表示："最有可能的结果是一种 鹰派降息——他们会降息，但在声明和新闻发布会上暗示，短期内可能已经完成降息周期。"他预计， 美联储传达的信息将是"他们已做出调整，对当前立场感到满意，并且认为只要经济形势大致符合预 期，近期无需采取更多行动"。 整个联邦公开市场委员会的立场将体现在会后声明以及美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会上。华尔街经济 评论人士预计，声明措辞可能会回到一年前的表述，提及"进一步调整的幅 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations on December 9, with early morning resistance around 4199, dropping to a low of approximately 4170 before stabilizing and rising to a peak of around 4221 during the late session, ultimately closing with a small gain [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is set to conclude on December 10, with the market pricing in an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which is expected to support gold prices as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [2] - There is a potential risk of a "hawkish cut," where Fed Chair Powell may emphasize inflation risks, setting a higher bar for future easing due to the resilience of the U.S. economy [2][4] - Key focus points include the Fed's dot plot, Powell's press conference, and the wording of the policy statement, which could impact the dollar and gold prices [2] Group 3: Leadership Uncertainty - Trump is conducting final interviews for the next Fed Chair, with Kevin Hassett being the most likely candidate, which could introduce policy uncertainty if his close relationship with the president leads to aggressive rate cuts [3][4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have been oscillating between 4163 and 4265, indicating a lack of a dominant trend, with the market showing signs of indecision [5] - The four-hour chart indicates a "double top" formation at 4265 and 4260, reinforcing resistance, while a "double bottom" structure at 4163 and 4170 provides strong support, suggesting a range-bound market [7]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 slightly down by 0.09% to 6840.51 points, the Nasdaq up by 0.13% to 23576.49 points, and the Dow Jones down by 179.03 points to 47560.29 points, influenced by JPMorgan's higher expense guidance for 2026 [1] - The Russell 2000 index, driven by interest rate expectations, reached a new all-time high during the session, closing up 0.21% at 2526.24 points [2] Stock Performance - Large-cap tech stocks exhibited mixed results, with Microsoft up 0.20%, Amazon up 0.45%, Google A up 1.07%, and Tesla up 1.27%. In contrast, Apple fell by 0.26%, Nvidia by 0.33%, and Meta by 1.48% [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index declined by 1.37%, with most popular Chinese stocks retreating, including Baidu down over 4%, and Xpeng, Li Auto, and Beike down over 3% [4] Economic Indicators - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, significantly up from less than 67% a month ago. Analysts believe the recent strong rebound in small-cap stocks reflects market bets on a more accommodative financial environment [5] - The latest October JOLTS report revealed job openings increased to 7.67 million, exceeding market expectations of 7.15 million, while hiring activity weakened, with employment numbers dropping to 5.149 million and layoffs increasing. The September revised figures showed job openings at 7.658 million and employment at 5.367 million [5] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is described as being in a "no hiring, no firing" state, with declining labor supply, reduced immigration, and the application of artificial intelligence suppressing demand for entry-level positions. This structural change is a core reason for the internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve [6] - Following the JOLTS data, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded after initially dipping, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.186% and the 2-year yield to 3.611%, marking the fourth consecutive day of increases [6] Yield Curve Insights - Analysts noted that the flattening of the yield curve reflects market concerns about economic momentum and a higher pricing of "hawkish rate cuts" scenarios [7] Commodity Performance - In commodities, international oil prices fell, with light crude oil futures for January 2026 down by $0.63 to $58.25 per barrel, a decline of 1.07% [8] - In precious metals, spot gold rose by 0.5% to $4208.83 per ounce, while February futures gold increased by 0.4% to $4236.20. Spot silver surged by 4.2% to $60.59 per ounce, reaching a historical high [9]

Group 1 - Trump approved the export of Nvidia's H200, which serves a dual purpose: supporting Nvidia's demand and supply ratio of 12 to 1, indicating no bubble [1][4] - The approval of H200 signifies that the U.S. needs the purchasing power of East Asia, which also supports the AI bubble [4] - The second purpose is profit generation, with Trump planning to take a 25% cut for the government [5] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is approximately 89%, but it may still adopt a "hawkish" approach to rate cuts [6] - Powell is expected to express uncertainty about next year's situation and may adjust the dot plot from three to two rate cuts [7] - The new chairman, Hassett, emphasizes that future rate cuts must closely monitor data, attempting to counter market expectations of blindly following Trump [8] Group 3 - A minimum of three to five rate cuts is anticipated next year, but the most critical aspect is the restart of quantitative easing (QE), now referred to as Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) [9] - Regardless of whether the Fed buys long-term or short-term bonds, the capital must flow into the market to generate profits [10] Group 4 - Speculation about further financial cooperation between China and the U.S. by 2026 is emerging, distinguishing between stock and incremental measures [11] - Incremental measures correspond to domestic demand, such as issuing special bonds, which do not involve the dollar [12] - Stock measures can be cooperative, as U.S. money printing can help alleviate issues in sectors like real estate, with H200 representing stock and domestic alternatives representing incremental growth [13]

美联储预计将在内部意见分歧的情况下连续第三次降息，官员们随后可能暗示暂停行动；芝商所集团 （CME）的美联储观察工具显示，市场已高度定价一次25个基点的降息。 美联储预计将在内部意见分歧的情况下连续第三次降息，官员们随后可能暗示暂停行动；芝商所集团 （CME）的美联储观察工具显示，市场已高度定价一次25个基点的降息。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in December, but this has already been priced in by the market, with the probability of a rate cut rising from 30% to 95% after comments from New York Fed President Williams[6] - The key focus of the December meeting will be on policy communication and forward guidance rather than the rate cut itself, which is seen as a dovish move[6] - A hawkish forward guidance is expected to accompany the rate cut to manage market expectations and avoid excessive optimism that could lead to asset bubbles and inflation rebounds[6] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Risks - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the three-month average of non-farm payrolls indicating a decline, with October showing a loss of 54,000 jobs and November showing a loss of 2,000 jobs[6] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise above 4.5% if demand continues to weaken, which could significantly increase recession risks[6] - The Challenger company reported a significant rise in layoff announcements in October, indicating potential future increases in unemployment[6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - There is a risk of profit-taking in the market following the Fed's meeting, particularly in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, as stocks, bonds, commodities, and gold may face short-term pressure[6] - The upcoming employment data release on December 16 will be crucial in shaping market expectations and could influence the Fed's future policy decisions[6]

Market Overview - On December 9, Hong Kong stocks experienced volatility, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 1.29% and 1.9% respectively [1][8] - Major tech stocks saw collective declines, with Xiaomi Group-W down over 3%, Kuaishou-W and Meituan-W down over 2%, Alibaba-W down over 1%, and Tencent Holdings stabilizing at a 0.41% drop [1][8] ETF Performance - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770), a key tool for AI investment, saw a price drop of 1.09%, while the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) fell by 1.37% [1][8] - Both ETFs experienced significant premium trading, indicating active buying interest during price dips [1][8] Investment Insights - The approval by Trump for Nvidia to deliver H200 to Chinese clients is expected to enhance China's overall computing power supply, benefiting domestic cloud service providers and promoting AI applications among companies like Tencent and Alibaba [3][10] - Analysts remain optimistic about the internet sector's cyclical properties combined with the upward trend in AI, suggesting that major players will likely lead any technological advancements [3][10] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is anticipated to be a "hawkish rate cut," which may temporarily suppress Hong Kong stock rebounds but could enhance the long-term investment appeal of the tech sector [3][10] Fund Inflows - Recent data indicates significant capital inflows into the Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) and the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560), with net inflows of 164 million and 35.16 million respectively [4][11] - The top holdings in these ETFs include Alibaba-W and Tencent Holdings, with respective weights of 18.74% and 14.84% for the Internet ETF, and 16.74% and 14.89% for the Large Cap ETF [4][11] ETF Characteristics - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index, which heavily invests in leading internet companies, with over 73% of its top 10 holdings focused on AI cloud computing and applications [6][13] - The fund has a scale exceeding 10 billion, with an average daily trading volume of over 600 million, providing good liquidity and supporting T+0 trading without QDII restrictions [6][14] - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) employs a "technology + dividend" strategy, balancing high-growth tech stocks with stable dividend-paying companies, making it an ideal long-term investment tool [6][14]

格隆汇12月9日｜美联储即将召开FOMC会议，前美联储副主席布雷纳德接受采访时表示，如果其参加 此次利率决议，可能会选择鹰派降息。布雷纳德表示，在官方数据缺失的情况下，会参考如ADP和 RevelioLabs等非政府数据来源的就业数据（这两个来源都显示美国就业岗位减少）。鉴于美联储不希 望看到经济进入一个自我强化的螺旋式下行，导致更多裁员的出现，她个人倾向于再降息一次，然后维 持利率不变一段时间，并坚定地承诺在未来两年内将通胀降至2%，也就是所谓的鹰派降息。她表示， 对美国人来说，首要问题是通胀和物价。 来源：格隆汇APP ...