Report Title - The report is titled "Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Market Weekly Report" [3] Report Date - The report is dated June 20, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - International oil prices strengthened due to the worsening Israel-Iran conflict, driving up the prices of PVC ethylene-based raw materials and causing the PVC futures market to fluctuate upwards this week. As of June 20, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 4,903 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from last week's close [9] - On the supply side, some PVC plants in Henan and Xinjiang underwent maintenance this week, leading to a 0.63% decrease in the PVC capacity utilization rate to 78.62%. On the demand side, the downstream PVC operating rate decreased by 1.49% to 44.31%, with the pipe and profile operating rates both declining. In terms of inventory, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.74% to 56.93 tons, with a slowdown in the destocking trend and relatively low inventory pressure [9] - The domestic PVC industry is currently in a period of intensive maintenance. New Pufa Chemical has plans to shut down two sets of equipment with a total capacity of 500,000 tons in late June, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. The domestic downstream demand is in the off-season, and the Indian market is affected by uncertainties such as BIS certification, anti-dumping duties, and the rainy season. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide plants will resume production next week, but the supply in the northwest region is restricted by production cuts. The possibility of the United States participating in the Israel-Iran conflict is increasing, and international oil prices may fluctuate strongly, driving up the prices of ethylene-based raw materials. Considering that the domestic PVC production is mainly based on the calcium carbide process, the PVC futures market is less sensitive to oil prices than LLDPE and PP. Overall, the V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly next week, with resistance around 4,980 yuan/ton [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights - Price: International oil prices strengthened, driving up the prices of PVC ethylene-based raw materials and causing the PVC futures market to fluctuate upwards. As of June 20, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 4,903 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from last week [9] - Fundamentals: Supply - Some PVC plants in Henan and Xinjiang underwent maintenance, with the capacity utilization rate decreasing by 0.63% to 78.62%. Demand - The downstream PVC operating rate decreased by 1.49% to 44.31%, with the pipe and profile operating rates declining by 2.81% and 1.3% respectively. Inventory - The PVC social inventory decreased by 0.74% to 56.93 tons, with a slowdown in the destocking trend. Cost - The prices of calcium carbide and ethylene-based raw materials increased, with the average national cost of the calcium carbide process rising to around 5,052 yuan/ton and that of the ethylene process rising to 5,596 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide process slightly improved, while the loss of the ethylene process deepened [9] - Outlook: The domestic PVC industry is in a period of intensive maintenance. New Pufa Chemical has plans to shut down two sets of equipment with a total capacity of 500,000 tons in late June, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. The domestic downstream demand is in the off-season, and the Indian market is affected by uncertainties. Next week, some calcium carbide plants will resume production, but the supply in the northwest region is restricted. International oil prices may fluctuate strongly, driving up the prices of ethylene-based raw materials. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly next week, with resistance around 4,980 yuan/ton [9] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - The V2509 contract fluctuated upwards this week, and the number of registered warehouse receipts remained stable [10] - The trading volume of the main contract fluctuated slightly, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened slightly [14] Spot Market - CFR China quoted at $710/ton (unchanged), Southeast Asia quoted at $670/ton (unchanged), and India quoted at $720/ton (up $10/ton) [21][25] - The spot prices of calcium carbide-based and ethylene-based PVC in East China increased this week [28] - The basis fluctuated within a range, and the futures market remained in a contango state [32] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - The price of semi-coke remained stable, while the price of calcium carbide increased. The operating rates of semi-coke and calcium carbide were 55.89% and 63.10% respectively [36][41] - The CIF price of VCM was $520/ton, and the international price of EDC was $176/ton [45] Supply - The PVC production capacity is expected to grow by 10.77% in 2025, and the output in May was 2.0197 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase [49] - The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased this week [53] Demand - The operating rates of PVC pipes and profiles decreased this week [57] - The export volume of PVC flooring increased in April [61] - The export volume of PVC decreased in April, while the import volume increased significantly [64] Inventory - The PVC social inventory decreased on a month-on-month basis [69] Cost - The costs of both the calcium carbide process and the ethylene process increased this week [73] Profit - The losses of both the calcium carbide process and the ethylene process deepened this week [80] 4. Options Market Analysis - The 20-day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 15.01%, and the implied volatilities of at-the-money call and put options were 21.51% [85]

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency maintains the long-term credit rating of Ruida Futures Co., Ltd. at AA with a stable outlook, indicating strong financial health and risk management capabilities [1][3]. Company Overview - Ruida Futures is an A-share listed futures company with a well-established risk management system and good corporate governance [3][12]. - As of March 2025, the company has a registered capital of 445 million yuan and is controlled by Fujian Ruida Holdings, which owns 75.57% of the shares [12][13]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported significant growth in operating income and profit, with net profit ranking 8th in the futures industry and return on equity ranking 1st [5][12]. - The total assets of the company increased from 157.19 billion yuan in 2022 to 167.69 billion yuan by March 2025 [6][12]. - The company achieved an operating income of 21.06 billion yuan in 2022, which decreased to 9.26 billion yuan in 2023 but rebounded to 18.10 billion yuan in 2024 [6][19]. Business Segments - The company operates in multiple business areas, including futures brokerage, asset management, and risk management, with the risk management segment showing substantial growth [18][24]. - In 2024, the asset management business saw a revenue increase of 201.70%, while the risk management business revenue surged by 308.39% [18][24]. Market Position - Ruida Futures has a strong market presence with 43 branches across economically vibrant regions in China, enhancing its competitive edge [12][13]. - The company’s market share in futures brokerage increased to 0.90% by the end of 2024, reflecting its growing competitiveness [20][22]. Regulatory Environment - The futures industry in China is supported by a comprehensive regulatory framework, which has been continuously improved to ensure market stability and growth [11][10]. - The company has faced regulatory scrutiny, necessitating improvements in internal controls and compliance management [15][16]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its competitive strength as the capital market continues to develop and its business expands [3][4]. - Potential factors for rating upgrades include significant enhancements in capital strength and external support from shareholders [3][4].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线反弹 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升， | | | | 豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存补库有所恢复，但仍有可 | | | | 补库空间，只是积极性预计有所下降。6 月美农报告中性。由于美豆种植基本顺利 | | | | 叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面依然偏空。虽然美豆优良率同比偏低，但目前产量 | | | | 实际影响较小，更多为炒作。前日豆粕维持反弹，由于逼近前高区域阻力，继续追 | | | | 多操作需谨慎，观望为宜。在美豆面积报告公布前，预计将维持 20 日均线以上运 | | | | 行为主。主力【3050，3100】 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | ...

期货热点追踪 橡胶期货价格下跌，需求进入淡季，泰国雨季干扰割胶，市场供需格局生变？后续价格能否稳住？ 相关链接 ...

「2025.06.20」 棉花（纱）市场周报 基本面变化不大，等待新因素指引 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情分析： 本周郑棉主力2509合约上涨，周度涨幅约0.04%。棉纱期货2509合约上涨约0.1%。 行情展望：国际方面，美棉播种进度落后于往年同期，且作物评级有所下调，不过 近期主产区天气条件良好。国内方面，纺织行业消费淡季特征显现，企业新增订单 表现不佳，夏季订单总体增量较为有限，订单多呈现短平快的特点，鲜少有大单下 达，部分企业根据自身订单减少班次，整体开机率缓慢下调。部分纺企处于累库存 状态，盈利空间也持续不佳，直接影响了企业对原材料的采购意愿，在原料采购策 略上表现得格外谨慎，仅根据实际生产需求补充库存。总体来说，消费淡季，去库 存速度缓慢，旧作基本面变化较小，短期价格震荡。值得注意的是，近期全疆大部 处于现蕾开花期的棉花存在不同程度高温热害风险，持续关注主产区新季棉花生 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-20 消费端存在不确定性，碳酸锂盘面或继续探底 市场分析 2025年6月19日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于59740元/吨，收于60060元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.13%。当 日成交量为167377手，持仓量为307261手，较前一交易日增加376手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳390 元/吨。所有合约总持仓598148手，较前一交易日增加15808手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少84329手，成 交量282439，整体投机度为0.47。当日碳酸锂仓单29957手，较上个交易日减少10手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月19日电池级碳酸锂报价5.99-6.1万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0万元/吨，工 业级碳酸锂报价5.835-5.935万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0万元/吨。 本周最新统计库存增长1352吨至13.49万吨，主要是上游及其他环节库存增加较多。周度产量也小幅增长891吨至 1.85万吨，以锂辉石生产产量有所增长。 策略 整体来看，消费端有转弱迹象，不分电池厂订单有所降低，供应端维持高位，库存开始累库，整体表现较弱，若 消费 ...

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The cotton market is in a state of shock, with the domestic market having a tightening supply - demand expectation in the later part of this year, but the new - year planting area is increasing and the demand is in the off - season. The international market is affected by the USDA report and weather conditions, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the macro - environment [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle, with the 25/26 season's supply changing from shortage to surplus. Zhengzhou sugar is dragged down by the weak external market [5][6] - Pulp: The pulp market has a loose supply pattern, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6][7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,525 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,775 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan's exports: In May 2025, textile and clothing exports were 1.531 billion US dollars, down 1.75% year - on - year and up 25.42% month - on - month [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,658 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil's ports: As of the week of June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar was 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.8539 million tons, down 56,500 tons (1.94%) from the previous week [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,254 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian needles was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Imports: China's pulp imports in May 2025 were 3.016 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [6] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - Macro: Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, but the macro - environment is still uncertain [2] - International: The USDA report adjusted down the global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, and the ending stocks decreased. The US cotton - growing areas have improved drought conditions [2] - Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is accelerating the destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [2] Sugar - International: Although energy prices support the international sugar price, the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil, India and Thailand has put pressure on the price [5] - Domestic: The domestic sales data is good, but the supply pressure is increasing due to the weakening of the external market [6] Pulp - Supply: The long - term contract price of Arauco has been continuously lowered, and the domestic imports have increased. The port inventory is at a high level [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak. The papermaking industry is in the off - season [7] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the cotton price to fluctuate in a range in the short term [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral - to - bearish strategy, and focus on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the pulp price to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [7]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-20 成材持续去库，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪扰动，钢价震荡运行 风险 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2986元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3103元/吨。现货方面，根据钢联数据显示，螺纹本 周产量较上周有所上升，库存、需求略微下降；热卷产量和消费上升，库存小幅下降。昨日，全国建材成交9.01 万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，随着建材进入消费淡季，建材产销存持续回落，由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季弱需 求将持续压制钢材价格；热卷方面，目前板材利润优于建材，产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退 坡后影响板材消费，虽然出口略有下滑，但是短期仍保持高位。整体来看，钢材目前供需矛盾不大，后期关注中 美关税谈判和内需刺激政策。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求维持韧性，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主港铁矿累 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-20 成本端支撑偏强，盘面延续涨势 市场分析 1、6月19日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3738元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨55元/吨，涨幅 1.49%；持仓279495手，环比上涨5127手，成交298748手，环比上涨38381手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3930—4086元/吨；山东，3650—4030元/吨；华南，3580—3650元/吨； 华东，3680—3770元/吨。 昨日华北以及山东地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，华南地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳 为主。在中东局势冲突的影响下，油价维持偏强运行，沥青成本端支撑仍存。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需 两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。由于沥青刚性需求较为疲软，部分地区市场情绪仍较为谨慎。整体来看，目前沥 青自身基本面驱动不足，盘面价格上涨主要受到原油端带动，情绪因素居多，考虑到中东局势仍不明朗，市场或 面临反复扰动。 策略 单边：震荡偏强，关注伊以冲突局势发展 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求 ...

【6月19日焦炭、焦煤期货行情及后市展望】6月19日，焦炭主力合约报收1374元/吨，日内跌幅0.11%。 截至收盘，主力合约持仓量5.03万手，较前一仓差-1539手。 现货市场上，日照港准一级平仓价1270元/ 吨，周环比持平，折合期货仓单成本约1401元/吨。利多因素累积，市场情绪转变，部分空单止盈离 场，多空博弈加剧，带动焦炭期货低位宽幅震荡。 展望后市，从"焦煤供应"和"终端需求"看，6月焦煤 供应收缩，但安全月后产量有望恢复，黑色金属终端出口中长期有压力，6月市场或僵持博弈，焦炭期 货或维持宽幅震荡。 6月19日，焦煤主力合约报收790.5点，日内下跌0.13%。截至收盘，主力合约持仓 量53.61万手，较前一仓差-13631手。 现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤报价865.0元/吨，周环比下跌 2.8%，折合期货仓单成本约834元/吨。安全月活动使国内焦煤产量收缩，进口煤价格倒挂抑制进口量， 供应端扰动缓和了焦煤基本面悲观预期。 同时，伊以冲突和中美贸易摩擦降温修复了市场情绪，多重 利好驱动焦煤期货主力合约止跌反弹。但焦煤长期供应过剩格局未扭转，安全月后煤矿有增产可能，中 美和伊以关系待跟踪，煤价 ...