1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The 2025/26 global cotton production and demand are both decreasing, with a slight increase in ending stocks. The US cotton production is slightly increasing, and the northern hemisphere's new cotton supply pressure is high. The global textile consumption is still weak. The domestic cotton production continues to increase, with sufficient short - term supply. The demand is improving with the approaching festivals. Considering the expected reduction in cotton planting and production in Xinjiang in 2026, the cotton price is expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure [2][3]. - Sugar: The 2025/26 global sugar market is in a definite surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the medium - term high production will suppress the price. The domestic sugar is expected to increase for the third year, with increasing supply and import pressure [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. The European demand has improved, while the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, but the port inventory is declining. With the expansion of downstream paper production capacity, the pulp price may gradually stabilize [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,255 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.53%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,086 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,279 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton. The Pakistani cotton market trading slowed, and the local cotton price was stable. The KCA's 2025/26 annual spot price was stable at 15,500 rupees/mound [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data in this month is small. The US cotton production is increasing slightly, and the short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure. - Domestic: The domestic cotton production continues to increase in 2025/26. The short - term supply is sufficient, but the hedging resistance on the disk is weakening. The new orders in the off - season are few, but the market sentiment is improving [2]. Strategy Neutral to bullish. The domestic cotton consumption is increasing, the new - year supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and the cotton price is optimistic after the seasonal pressure [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,269 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.13%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,240 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2025/26 Thai sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production decreased compared with the same period last year [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The 2025/26 global sugar market is in surplus. The short - term decline is limited, and the medium - term high production will suppress the price. - Zheng sugar: The domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year, with increasing supply and import pressure [5]. Strategy Neutral. The fundamental driving force is downward, but the current valuation is low, and there is a possibility of rebound [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,604 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.28%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market was weak [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar and Finnlin Group. - Demand: The European demand has improved, while the domestic terminal demand is insufficient. The port inventory is high but declining. The expansion of downstream paper production capacity will increase the demand for pulp [7]. Strategy Neutral. The overseas supply is disturbed, and the domestic demand may have a mild recovery before the Spring Festival. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong, but the increase depends on the improvement of demand and inventory digestion [8].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-26 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-92.6元/吨（+16.6），PP油制生产利润为-562.6元/吨（+16.6），PDH制PP生产利 润为-819.7元/吨（-10.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为40.7元/吨（+198.1），PP进口利润为-316.1元/吨（-14.6），PP出口利润为-16.1美元/吨 （-13.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为43.9%（-1.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.2%（-0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.7%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.0%）。 市场分析 PE方面，供应端维持高位，扬子石化、茂名石化等装置计划重启，短期新增计划检修量有限，从现有检修计划看 明年一季度总体检修量级亦不高，且面临巴斯夫50万吨FDPE新装置即将达产释放，供应宽松压力持续；需求端， PE下游进入需求淡季，下游整体开工继续下滑，农膜开工进一步明显下滑，地膜需求驱动仍有限，后期农膜需求 预期继续逐步转弱；包装膜开工亦环比小幅下滑，刚性采购为主，需求支撑减弱。供增需弱格局使得社会库存延 续累积，且LL和LD绝 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas gasoline crack spreads are weak, reducing support from overseas gasoline blending for pure benzene. Although the peak of domestic pure benzene arrivals has passed, there is still some arrival pressure, with port inventories accumulating further at high levels this week and downstream pick - up remaining weak. Downstream operating rates are starting to recover from the bottom, with the styrene operating rate hitting the bottom and rebounding. Non - styrene downstream products such as phenol, aniline, and adipic acid have also seen an increase in operating rates, while the CPL operating rate has shown weak rebound [1][2]. - Styrene port inventories increased slightly during the week. The styrene operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and it is the end of the previous de - stocking cycle due to the off - season of downstream EPS. However, the temporary short - stop of Bohua affected the expected increase in the EB operating rate. Downstream operating rates rebounded slightly. EPS operating rate in the off - season rebounded slightly, PS operating rate rebounded after inventory reduction, and ABS operating rate continued to be at a low level due to continuous inventory pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include the relationship between pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, pure benzene's main contract basis, pure benzene's spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene's continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, as well as similar data for styrene [7][14][18]. II. Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover the naphtha processing fee, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, and various spreads and import profits of pure benzene and styrene in different regions [22][24][38]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the pure benzene inventory at the East China port, pure benzene operating rate, styrene inventory at the East China port, styrene operating rate, styrene commercial inventory in East China, and styrene factory inventory [39][42][44]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS in the styrene downstream [52][54][57]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures display the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other pure benzene downstream products, as well as the production profits of related derivatives such as PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [64][68][75]. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [3]. - Basis and Inter - Period: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high [3]. - Cross - Variety: Short BZ2603 and long PX2605 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel industry shows a slight decline in production and sales, with prices remaining volatile, and there are seasonal decline expectations for building materials demand. The iron ore industry has a slight increase in molten iron production and continuous inventory accumulation, and the iron ore price may face downward pressure. The coking coal and coke industry has supply pressure and prices fluctuate slightly. The thermal coal industry has a supply contraction at the end of the year and continuous price drops at ports [1][3][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures maintained volatile trading. This week, the output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, demand declined month - on - month, and inventory continued to decline. Among them, rebar production increased, consumption decreased, and inventory decreased; hot - rolled coil production and sales increased, and inventory declined at an accelerated pace. Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of building materials continue to improve, off - season consumption maintains resilience, production increases slightly, and inventory continues to decline. The demand for building materials still has a seasonal decline expectation. The production and sales of plates improve, demand maintains resilience, and high inventory continuously suppresses plate price performance, with the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continuing to weaken [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' procurement was mainly based on rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 1.341 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.11%; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 0.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100.00%. The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week was 2.2658 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons. The total inventory of iron ore at 45 ports in this period was 158.59 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated. For coke, the spot market price remained stable, and downstream procurement willingness was insufficient; for coking coal, the prices in the main production areas showed mixed trends, and the overall market was still in a wait - and - see state. For imported Mongolian coal, the sentiment at the port improved slightly, and some Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was traded at about 960 - 1000 yuan/ton [5] - **Strategy**: For coking coal and coke, unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, the coal prices in the main production areas fluctuated. Recently, some coal mines stopped production or reduced production after completing their annual tasks, and the overall supply contracted. At the ports, the thermal coal market remained weak, and prices continued to decline to a low - level range. In the import market, the imported coal market remained stable. The demand for imported medium - and high - calorie coal types was average, with prices remaining stable or weak, and the quotes for low - calorie coal generally increased slightly [8] - **Strategy**: Not provided in the content

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided on report industry investment ratings. Group 2: Core Views of Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may continue to rise but face pressure at the end of the month and during the New Year holiday. Domestic palm oil futures may weaken again. US biodiesel policy may boost CBOT soybean oil, and domestic soybean oil fundamentals are positive but high crushing margins may limit price increases. Domestic rapeseed oil basis is strengthening due to positive news and tight supply [1]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is expected to be loose, constraining price rebounds. In China, demand is picking up with the approaching festivals, but ample supply may limit the upside of Zhengzhou sugar futures [2]. Meal - US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillating pattern. In China, the spot meal market is loose, but concerns about customs policies and low expected arrivals in January and February may support soybean meal prices [3]. Cotton - US cotton exports are strong, and it will maintain an oscillating trend. In China, supply pressure is easing, and cotton prices are expected to rise after breaking through key resistance levels [5]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, and seasonal demand is strong. The short - term futures market may show an oscillating and strengthening trend [9]. Corn - The corn market in Northeast and North China is quiet with stable prices. Demand is weak, and the market is in a stalemate. Attention should be paid to selling sentiment and policy releases [13]. Red Dates - The arrival of red dates in markets is lower than in previous years. The recent price rebound depends on consumption. It is recommended to hold short call options [16]. Apples - The apple consumption market is affected by substitutes, and only high - quality apples in Gansu are selling well. It is suggested to exit long positions [17]. Eggs - The egg supply is still relatively loose but is gradually easing. Demand may improve during festivals, and near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [19]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Spot Price**: Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8350 yuan, Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8490 yuan, and Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 9680 yuan [1]. - **Futures Price**: Y2605 soybean oil is 8044 yuan, P2605 palm oil is 8514 yuan, and OI605 rapeseed oil is 9361 yuan [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2601 is 5364 yuan/ton, Sugar 2605 is 5269 yuan/ton, and ICE raw sugar is 15.30 cents/pound [2]. - **Spot Market**: Nanning sugar is 5340 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar is 5240 yuan/ton [2]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu is 3100 yuan, M2605 futures price is 2760 yuan [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu is 2430 yuan, RM2605 futures price is 2352 yuan [3]. Cotton - **Futures Price**: Cotton 2605 is 14255 yuan/ton, and ICE US cotton is 64.20 cents/pound [5]. - **Spot Price**: Xinjiang arrival price (3128B) is 15086 yuan [5]. Live Pigs - **Futures Price**: Live pigs 2605 is 11975 yuan/ton, and Live pigs 2603 is 11460 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spot Price**: Henan is 11800 yuan/ton, Shandong is 11950 yuan/ton [8]. Corn - **Corn**: Corn 2603 is 2189 yuan/ton, Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2280 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2603 is 2484 yuan/ton, Changchun spot is 2570 yuan/ton [13]. Red Dates - **Futures Price**: Red dates 2605 (main contract) is 8905 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spot Price**: Cangzhou super - grade is 9560 yuan/ton [16]. Apples - **Futures Price**: Apple 2605 (main contract) is 9191 yuan/ton [17]. Eggs - **Futures Price**: Egg 01 contract is 3072 yuan/500KG, Egg 02 contract is 2946 yuan/500KG [19]. - **Spot Price**: Egg production area price is 2.87 yuan/jin [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent changes in PTA devices are relatively small, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be acceptable. The futures market has risen significantly following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, the second - phase device of CNOOC Shell has been successfully restarted. The changes of Huayi and Yulin Chemical devices should be noted around the end of the month. There is still room for a slight increase in the overall ethylene glycol operating rate, and the domestic supply will show a certain increase. In the long - term, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the market sentiment needs time to recover. In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol will be mainly sorted at a low level, and the impact of cost and device news should be noted [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis strengthened. The negotiation was mainly among traders. The December goods were negotiated at a discount of 10 - 16 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4995 - 5110. The January goods were traded at a discount of 60 - 65 to the 05 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 13. The spot is 5060, the basis of the 05 contract is - 92, and the futures price is higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory is 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net long, and the long position increases [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The spot negotiation of ethylene glycol was around a discount of 0 - 15 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Some contract traders in the market actively replenished their stocks, and there was little negotiation for next - week's spot. In the morning, affected by the decline in polyester load, the ethylene glycol market declined moderately, and in the afternoon, the market maintained a narrow range. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated strongly. The January shipment was negotiated and traded at around 438 - 445 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in the offer at high prices, with the overall transaction being relatively stalemate. The spot is 3635, the basis of the 05 contract is - 183, and the futures price is higher than the spot price. The total inventory in East China is 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and the short position increases [8]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand, and the port inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio [12]. - **Price and Profit Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, polyester fibers on December 25 and 24, 2025, as well as the basis, processing fees, and production profits of different products [13]. 5.影响因素总结 - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Not provided in the content - **Unfavorable Influencing Factors**: Not provided in the content - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. For the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Continuing to bottom out [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory data [1]. - Japan's government plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year, with a 6.3% increase compared to the current fiscal year. The budget growth is mainly driven by social security and defense spending. The government plans to issue about 29.6 trillion yen in new government bonds, and the debt dependence is expected to drop to 24.2% [2]. - Due to rising inflation expectations, the market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will take a more aggressive interest - rate hike path. The auction demand for 2 - year Japanese government bonds is weak, and the 10 - year break - even inflation rate has reached a record high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,275 yuan, down 55 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 229,349 lots, a decrease of 65,183 lots. The LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,957 US dollars, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract is 2,646 yuan, up 92 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 279,750 lots, an increase of 108,150 lots [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 21,345 yuan, down 135 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 6,506 lots, a decrease of 908 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The pre - baked anode market price is 6,187 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 612,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 2,715 yuan, and the alumina arrival price at Lianyungang is 334 US dollars per ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is 12 yuan, up 34 yuan from the previous trading day. The price of Baotai ADC12 is 21,500 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is 0, and aluminum alloy is 1 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The outlook for soymeal is to oscillate, waiting for further guidance from the external market; the outlook for soybeans is to oscillate under the influence of the overall soybean market atmosphere [1]. - This week, the soybean market witnessed a typical Christmas rally. On Wednesday, soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade closed up over 10 cents per bushel. After a one - day closure on Thursday, soybean futures trading resumed on Friday, with the focus remaining on South American weather [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - DCE Soybean 2605 closed at 4,125 yuan/ton during the day session, up 19 yuan (+0.46%), and 4,128 yuan at night, up 15 yuan (+0.36%). - DCE Soymeal 2605 closed at 2,760 yuan/ton during the day session, up 21 yuan (+0.77%), and 2,776 yuan at night, up 37 yuan (+1.35%) [1]. 3.1.2 Spot - In Shandong, the soymeal (43%) price was 3,080 - 3,110 yuan/ton, with different basis levels for different months compared to M2605, mostly unchanged from the previous day. - In East China, prices in different regions and for different enterprises ranged from 3,020 - 3,110 yuan/ton, with various basis levels and changes compared to the previous day. - In South China, prices were 3,070 - 3,110 yuan/ton, with differences in basis levels and changes compared to the previous day [1]. 3.1.3 Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soymeal was 10.46 million tons per day, down from 16.49 million tons two days ago. - The inventory of soymeal was 105.63 million tons per week, up from 100.92 million tons two weeks ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Due to public holidays, the markets in the US, Canada, and Malaysia were closed on Thursday, and there was no agricultural product daily review. - This week, the soybean market had a Christmas rally. After the closure on Thursday, trading resumed on Friday, and the focus was on South American weather [1][3]. 3.3 Weather Forecast - In the coming days, Rio Grande do Sul will experience heavy rainfall, while rainfall in Mato Grosso will be irregular. - According to the GFS model, moderate rainfall is expected in many areas of Brazil in the next 10 days, and heavy rainfall is expected in some areas. High temperatures are also being closely monitored as soybeans in the growth - critical period need suitable climate conditions. From Thursday to at least Saturday, national temperatures are expected to remain high [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soymeal is 0; the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the reporting day [3].

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has surpassed the 7.0 mark, reaching a high of 6.9985, marking the first time since September 2024 that both offshore and onshore RMB have crossed significant thresholds [1] - The overall trend for the offshore RMB against the USD in 2025 has shown a pattern of "initial suppression followed by recovery and oscillation," indicating a clear appreciation trend [1] - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a weaker USD, a decline in the USD index, strong fundamentals from the Chinese economy, and year-end demand for currency settlement [2] Group 2 - The interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have led to a recovery in the China-US interest rate differential, supporting the continued mild appreciation of the RMB [2] - The People's Bank of China has emphasized maintaining the RMB exchange rate stability at a reasonable and balanced level, indicating a focus on monetary policy adjustments to support this goal [4] - The offshore RMB's appreciation is expected to have a positive impact on the capital markets, enhancing the risk appetite for Chinese equities and increasing foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets [3] Group 3 - The appreciation of the offshore RMB is expected to have a mixed impact on trade, reducing import costs for commodities while potentially weakening the competitiveness of export-oriented goods [2] - The central bank's recent meetings have highlighted the importance of using various monetary policy tools to ensure liquidity and stabilize the RMB exchange rate [4] - Market participants are advised to be cautious of unilateral exchange rate fluctuations and consider using financial instruments to hedge against short-term volatility [3]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The black market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season. The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate upwards, and the iron ore 05 contract remains in a wide - range high - level oscillation. It is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: This week, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, the total output of five major varieties decreased, and overall inventory continued to decline. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot - rolled coil's increased, but the overall apparent demand of the five major varieties declined. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2] - **Cost support**: Recently, coal and coke prices have rebounded significantly, raising the cost support for the futures market [2] - **Technical analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly. It has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [2] - **Data details**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different changes; for example, the rebar main contract closing price was 3127 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.29%) from the previous day and up 2 yuan (0.06%) from last week [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production was 181.68 million tons, up 2.90 million tons (1.62%) from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 291.91 million tons, down 16.80 million tons (- 5.44%) [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major varieties was 872.56 million tons, down 33.91 million tons (- 3.74%) from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the overall output and apparent demand of five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, molten iron production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. Steel mill production cuts suppress raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year [3] - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price. The market has fully digested the building steel production license system and the inclusion of steel products in export license management [3] - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range high - level oscillation [3] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [3] - **Data details**: - **Prices**: The DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 778.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.0 yuan (- 0.13%) from the previous day and up 1.0 yuan (0.13%) from last week [4] - **Shipments**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1703.9 million tons, down 60.2 million tons (- 3.41%) from last week; Brazilian shipments were 747.6 million tons, down 71.9 million tons (- 8.77%) [4] - **Inventory**: Port inventory totaled 15512.63 million tons, up 81.21 million tons (0.53%) from last week [4] 3. Industry News - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the daily price limit range of coke and coking coal futures contracts to 10% starting from the settlement on December 30, 2025, while keeping the trading margin level unchanged [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to strengthen coal supply and promote the construction of strategic reserves [6] - Mysteel research shows that the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 18 yuan/ton [6] - As of the week of December 25, rebar production increased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventory increased, social inventory decreased for the eleventh consecutive week, and apparent demand decreased [6] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples decreased by 2.4% to 84.2% this week [7] - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased [7] - The chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation believes that China's steel product export license requirements cannot effectively suppress steel exports or boost steel prices [8]