Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/03 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Keidanren, Japanese Parliamentary Group submit requests to visit China. Fu ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 0.56% to 30.4601 points, indicating a positive trend in the grain market [1] Group 1: Futures Market Performance - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.07% [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 1.17% [1] - CBOT soybean futures declined by 0.35% [1] - Soymeal futures fell by 0.91% [1] - Soy oil futures gained 0.42% [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for gold in Shanghai closed down by 0.85%, priced at 954 CNY per gram [1] - The main contract for silver in Shanghai closed up by 1.10%, priced at 13,640 CNY per kilogram [1] - The main contract for SC crude oil closed down by 0.75%, priced at 450 CNY per barrel [1]

1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the market is expected to follow the cost - end fluctuations in the short term, with supply reduction and potential restarts of previously shut - down capacities, and downstream polyester开工 to seasonally weaken. For MEG, it may oscillate at a low level under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **主力合约**: On December 2nd, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.34%, and the basis weakened to - 32 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The market price of PTA in East China today was 4720 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end crude oil price rose, OPEC + maintained the resolution to suspend production increase in Q1, 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous week [3] - **主力动向**: Long - position main players reduced their positions [3] - **预期**: Recently, PTA supply has decreased significantly. Previously shut - down capacities will gradually restart, leading to a phased de - stocking of PTA. India's BIS cancellation is a boost to exports. The downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally weaken. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production by plants under the repair of processing fees [3] MEG - **主力合约**: On December 2nd, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 0.41%, and the basis weakened by - 6 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamentals**: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today was 3876 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end crude oil price increased, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly inventory of MEG ports in East China totaled 70.8 tons, an increase of 7.5 tons compared to the previous week [4] - **主力动向**: There was a divergence among long and short main players [4] - **预期**: Ethylene glycol has been accumulating inventory in recent weeks, and the expectation has not changed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production and conduct maintenance, alleviating the supply - side pressure of ethylene glycol. A 3.3 - million - ton plant in Iran has recently shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. The downstream polyester开工 remains stable but has entered the consumption off - season [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 02, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - As of December 02, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Synthetic rubber rose nearly 4%, while polysilicon, asphalt, palladium, platinum, and industrial silicon fell over 2%. Different futures varieties are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and economic data, leading to different price trends and future expectations [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 02, domestic futures main contracts had mixed results. Synthetic rubber, silver, pulp, coke, and container shipping to Europe routes had significant increases, while polysilicon, asphalt, palladium, platinum, and industrial silicon had notable drops. Stock index futures and bond futures also mostly declined [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - The US ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. After the Indonesian copper mine accident, production is planned to restart in phases from Q2 2026, easing the tight supply expectation. December domestic copper production is expected to increase. Demand is supported by the power grid and energy storage, but the buying interest has decreased. The CSPT plans to cut production by over 10% in 2026, but the upside for copper prices is limited [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate decreased during the day. In November, domestic production increased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate was high. In December, production is expected to continue to increase, but there may be seasonal production cuts in salt - lake lithium extraction. Demand has entered a stable growth stage, and the supply - demand balance has slightly eased, with the price consolidating at a high level [10][12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and 8 countries will pause production increases in Q1 2026. The demand peak has ended, and US oil inventories have increased. The number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and geopolitical tensions may cause supply disruptions. Crude oil is in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate increased slightly last week, and the December production is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory ratio is at a low level. With the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15] 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but the start - up rate of the plastic weaving industry decreased. Supply has increased with new capacity and some maintenance. Downstream demand is in the off - peak season, and the price increase space is limited [16][17] 3.2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate remained stable. Downstream demand, especially for agricultural films, is in the off - peak season. With new capacity coming on stream, the supply has increased. The price increase space is limited [18] 3.2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate increased, and the downstream start - up rate was stable. The cancellation of India's BIS policy and anti - dumping tax has limited impact. The inventory is high, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season in December, so the upside is limited [19][20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. The supply may decrease at the end of the year, and the inventory is shifting to the upstream. Downstream demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea prices were strong during the day. The gas - based plants are starting to cut production. Agricultural demand is mainly for reserve purchases, and compound fertilizer plants are in the winter storage production stage. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is supported, so the price is expected to be strong in the short term [23]

Group 1: Soybean Market Analysis - CBOT soybean futures declined due to a lack of new sales to China, with January futures closing at $11.28 per bushel after reaching a high of $11.42-1/4 earlier in the day [1] - The Dalian soybean meal futures market rebounded, with the main contract closing at 3045 yuan per ton, up 6 yuan, indicating a strong trading sentiment despite reduced volume [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices showed a slight increase, with a local rise of 10 yuan per ton, while U.S. soybean export inspections to China were reported at 0 tons for the week [1] Group 2: Corn Market Analysis - Dalian corn futures saw a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 2243 yuan per ton, reflecting a cautious market sentiment amid reduced trading volume [2] - CBOT corn futures fell due to technical selling and weakness in the soybean market, with March futures closing at $4.45 per bushel after failing to break through a key resistance level [3] - Domestic corn prices experienced fluctuations, with Northeast prices remaining strong as various entities increased procurement, leading to a bullish sentiment among farmers [4][5]

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with synthetic rubber rising over 4%, and silver, pulp, coke, and European shipping rising over 2% [2] - In contrast, polysilicon, asphalt, palladium, platinum, and industrial silicon fell over 2% [2] Group 2 - The natural rubber market saw an increase, with Shanghai's SCRWF 2024 intended transaction price at 14,850-15,000 CNY/ton, up 150 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Vietnam's 3L mixed rubber intended transaction price was 15,200-15,300 CNY/ton, an increase of 75 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The futures market rebounded, and the spot market prices followed the futures upward trend, with downstream product demand being moderate [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Due to continuous production cuts in the southwest region during the dry season on both the supply and demand sides, and a significant decline in inventory due to the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, with limited actual consumption, the market may fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - SI2512 closed at 9155 with a 0.38% increase and a position of 1674 [2]. - SI2601 closed at 9145 with a 0.16% decrease and a position of 203274 [2]. - SI2602 closed at 9140 with no change and a position of 52565 [2]. - SI2603 closed at 9145 with a 0.16% decrease and a position of 26444 [2]. - SI2604 closed at 9135 with a 0.11% decrease and a position of 12994 [2]. Spot Market - In the East region, 553 (non - oxygen - passing) was priced at 9350 with no change, 553 (hydrogen - passing) at 9550 with no change, 421 at 9800 with no change, 441 at 9750, and 3303 at 10450 [2]. - At Huangpu Port, 553 (hydrogen - passing) was priced at 9600 with no change, and 421 at 10050 [2]. - At Tianjin Port, 553 (flux - passing) was priced at 9400, and 421 at 9800 with no change [2]. - In Kunming, 553 (hydrogen - passing) was priced at 9600, and 421 at 10000 with no change [2]. - Sichuan DMC price for 421 was 9800, 107 - glue was 13850, polycrystalline silicon (dense material, per kg) was 51 with no change, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21500 with a 150 increase [2]. Price Difference - The price difference between si2512 and si2601 was 10 - 45 [2]. - The price difference between si2601 and si2602 was 5 - 15 [2]. - The price difference between 421 spot and 553 oxygen - passing spot was 250 [2]. - The basis (East 553 spot - main contract) was 405 with a 15 decrease [2]. Warehouse Information - The total capacity of all warehouses was 7.5 tons, and the total number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3680 [2]. Industry Dynamics - On November 14, the online approval and supervision platform for investment projects in Jiangxi Province announced the filing information for an annual production of 137,500 tons of organic silicon new material project by Jiangxi Xinfang High - Tech Yongxiu [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of the futures market on December 2, 2025, based on the previous day's market performance and technical analysis. It predicts the likely trends, resistance, and support levels for various futures contracts, including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, and commodity futures [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - On December 1, IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 all showed a trend of rising after opening, and are expected to oscillate and consolidate on December 2. The resistance and support levels are as follows: IF2512 (resistance: 4575 and 4600 points, support: 4535 and 4511 points); IH2512 (resistance: 2990 and 3000 points, support: 2976 and 2963 points); IC2512 (resistance: 7054 and 7112 points, support: 6974 and 6925 points); IM2512 (resistance: 7322 and 7365 points, support: 7260 and 7211 points) [14][15][19]. Bond Futures - Ten - year Treasury bond futures (T2603) are expected to have a wide - range oscillation on December 2, with resistance at 108.10 and 108.20 yuan and support at 107.92 and 107.85 yuan. Thirty - year Treasury bond futures (TL2603) are also expected to have a wide - range oscillation on December 2, with resistance at 114.6 and 114.8 yuan and support at 114.2 and 114.0 yuan [38][41]. Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures (AU2602) are expected to oscillate and consolidate on December 2, with resistance at 970.6 and 984.0 yuan/gram and support at 960.0 and 956.1 yuan/gram. Silver futures (AG2602) are expected to be strong and may reach new highs on December 2, with resistance at 13800 and 14000 yuan/kg and support at 13278 and 13259 yuan/kg. Platinum futures (PT2606) and palladium futures (PD2606) are expected to have a weak wide - range oscillation on December 2 [42][51][56]. Base Metal Futures - Copper futures (CU2601) are expected to be strong and may reach new highs on December 2, with resistance at 90000 and 91000 yuan/ton and support at 89000 and 88500 yuan/ton. Aluminum futures (AL2601) are expected to be strong on December 2, with resistance at 22000 and 22160 yuan/ton and support at 21800 and 21730 yuan/ton. Alumina futures (AO2601) are expected to be strong on December 2, with resistance at 2700 and 2710 yuan/ton and support at 2677 and 2668 yuan/ton. Tin futures (SN2601) are expected to have a wide - range oscillation and accumulate strength to attack resistance on December 2, with resistance at 308900 and 313700 yuan/ton and support at 304100 and 302200 yuan/ton [61][67][75]. Commodity Futures - Polysilicon futures (PS2601) are expected to have a weak wide - range oscillation on December 2, with resistance at 58500 and 59200 yuan/ton and support at 56400 and 55500 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate futures (LC2605) are expected to have a wide - range oscillation on December 2, with resistance at 98900 and 101200 yuan/ton and support at 95000 and 93500 yuan/ton. Rebar futures (RB2601) are expected to oscillate and consolidate on December 2, with resistance at 3143 and 3165 yuan/ton and support at 3117 and 3105 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures (HC2601) are expected to oscillate and consolidate on December 2, with resistance at 3340 and 3353 yuan/ton and support at 3315 and 3306 yuan/ton. Iron ore futures (I2601) are expected to have a wide - range oscillation on December 2, with resistance at 805 and 811 yuan/ton and support at 795 and 790 yuan/ton. Coking coal futures (JM2601) are expected to have a wide - range oscillation on December 2, with resistance at 1106 and 1124 yuan/ton and support at 1084 and 1066 yuan/ton. Glass futures (FG601) are expected to oscillate and consolidate on December 2, with resistance at 1058 and 1070 yuan/ton and support at 1031 and 1016 yuan/ton. Soda ash futures (SA601) are expected to have a wide - range oscillation on December 2, with resistance at 1195 and 1208 yuan/ton and support at 1175 and 1155 yuan/ton. PTA futures (TA601) are expected to oscillate and consolidate on December 2, with resistance at 4778 and 4826 yuan/ton and support at 4720 and 4700 yuan/ton. PVC futures (V2601) are expected to oscillate and consolidate on December 2, with resistance at 4569 and 4593 yuan/ton and support at 4535 and 4526 yuan/ton. Methanol futures (MA601) are expected to be strong on December 2, with resistance at 2168 and 2188 yuan/ton and support at 2134 and 2125 yuan/ton. Natural rubber futures (RU2601) are expected to be strong on December 2, with resistance at 15440 and 15550 yuan/ton and support at 15190 and 15090 yuan/ton [79][84][87].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [2][5] - Silver: Accelerating the upward trend and reaching a new high [2][5] - Copper: Tight supply expectations lead to price increases [2][10] - Zinc: Supply cuts result in a volatile and bullish trend [2][13] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][16] - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2][20] - Aluminum: Strong performance [2][24] - Alumina: Consolidating at the bottom [2][24] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24] - Platinum: Volatile upward trend [2][27] - Palladium: Sideways consolidation [2][28] - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, with low - level volatility [2][31] - Stainless steel: High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside [2][31] - Lithium carbonate: Ore prices are rising steadily, with range - bound fluctuations [2][36] - Industrial silicon: Volatile and bearish [2][39] - Polysilicon: The exchange restricts new positions, sentiment cools, and the market may face a significant decline [2][39] - Iron ore: Limited downstream demand and over - valued [2][42] - Rebar: Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [2][46] - Hot - rolled coil: Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [2][47] - Ferrosilicon: Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [2][51] - Silicomanganese: Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [2][51] - Coke: Wide - range volatility [2][55] - Coking coal: Wide - range volatility [2][56] - Logs: Low - level volatility [2][58] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Gold: The closing price of SHFE gold 2512 was 959.64, up 1.05%; the night - session closing price was 964.72, up 0.66%. The trend strength is 1. Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [5] - Silver: The closing price of SHFE silver 2512 was 13282, up 4.46%; the night - session closing price was 13766.00, up 5.08%. The trend strength is 1. It is accelerating the upward trend and reaching a new high [5] Copper - The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 89,280, up 2.12%; the night - session closing price was 89380, up 0.11%. The trend strength is 1. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026 [10][12] Zinc - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22590, up 0.74%. The trend strength is 1. Supply cuts lead to a volatile and bullish trend [13] Lead - The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17075, down 0.09%. The trend strength is 0. Reduced inventory supports prices [16] Tin - The closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 306,580, up 0.50%; the night - session closing price was 306,890, down 0.27%. The trend strength is 0. Supply is disrupted again [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 21865. The trend strength is 1. Strong performance [24] - Alumina: The closing price of SHFE alumina main contract was 2677. The trend strength is 0. Consolidating at the bottom [24] - Cast aluminum alloy: The closing price of the main contract was 21055. The trend strength is 1. Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24] Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: The trend strength is 1. Volatile upward trend [27][29] - Palladium: The trend strength is 0. Sideways consolidation [28][29] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract was 117,850. The trend strength is 0. Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, with low - level volatility [31] - Stainless steel: The closing price of the main contract was 12,445. The trend strength is 0. High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside [31] Lithium Carbonate - The closing price of the 2601 contract was 95,120. The trend strength is 0. Ore prices are rising steadily, with range - bound fluctuations [36] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The closing price of Si2601 was 9,145. The trend strength is - 1. Volatile and bearish [39] - Polysilicon: The closing price of PS2601 was 57,705. The trend strength is - 2. The exchange restricts new positions, sentiment cools, and the market may face a significant decline [39] Iron Ore - The closing price of the 12601 contract was 801.0, up 0.88%. The trend strength is 0. Limited downstream demand and over - valued [43] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,134, up 1.16%. The trend strength is 0. Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [47] - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of HC2601 was 3,327, up 1.03%. The trend strength is 0. Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [47] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 5466. The trend strength is 0. Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [51] - Silicomanganese: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 5724. The trend strength is 0. Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [51] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The closing price of J2601 was 1619.5, up 2.9%. The trend strength is 0. Wide - range volatility [56] - Coking coal: The closing price of JM2601 was 1093, up 2.4%. The trend strength is 0. Wide - range volatility [56] Logs - Logs: Low - level volatility [58]