Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline rate remaining consistent with the previous month [1] Group 1: PPI Decline Factors - The primary reason for the PPI decline is the impact of international input factors leading to a decrease in domestic industry prices [1] - Changes in the international trade environment and a rapid decline in certain international bulk commodity prices have affected domestic industry prices [1] - Seasonal declines in domestic energy prices also contributed, particularly with the end of heating season in northern regions, leading to a decrease in coal demand [1] Group 2: Specific Industry Impact - The coal mining and washing industry, as well as coal processing prices, have seen a month-on-month decline of 3.3% due to the seasonal drop in demand [1]

国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年4月份CPI和PPI数据。4月份，居民消费价格指数(CPI) 环比由上月下降0.4%转为上涨0.1%，同比下降0.1%，降幅与上月相同。核心CPI环比由平转涨，上涨 0.2%；同比上涨0.5%，涨幅保持稳定。工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相 同，同比下降2.7%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。虽然国际输入性因素对部分行业价格产生一定下拉 影响，但我国经济基础稳、韧性强，各项宏观政策协同发力，高质量发展扎实推进，部分领域价格呈现 积极变化。(国家统计局) ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月07日 宏观经济数据前瞻 2025 年 4 月宏观经济指标预期一览 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2025 年 4 月国内宏观经济数据将在 2025 年 5 月陆续公布，国信证券经济研究所提前给出 2025 年 4 月主要 经济数据的预测值。 以下是 2025 年 4 月主要经济数据预测： 结论：4 月国内经济增长动能有所回落但仍显稳健。预计 4 月国内 CPI 环比约为 0.1%，CPI 同比持平上月 的-0.1%；4 月 PPI 环比或约为-0.5%，PPI ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - April official manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[3] - New export orders fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, reflecting significant external demand weakness[4] - Industrial raw material purchase prices dropped to 47.0%, a decline of 2.8 percentage points, suggesting ongoing price pressures[21] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - April construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, with new orders showing mixed trends[22] - Special bond issuance progress reached approximately 27.1% by April 30, outperforming the 18.0% of the same period in 2024, indicating strong infrastructure momentum[22] - Service sector PMI remained relatively stable at 50.1%, with new orders declining by 1.2 percentage points to 45.9%[32] Group 3: Tariff Disturbance Phases - The first phase (May-June) is characterized by a slight recovery in exports, projected at +0.9% year-on-year, despite increasing downward pressure[6] - The second phase (July-August) may see reduced production schedules and workforce optimization among export firms if tariff conditions do not improve[6] - The current period is critical for policy decisions, with expectations for more flexible responses to economic pressures from both China and the U.S.[6] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes and a sharper-than-expected recession in the U.S. economy[7]

报 告 正 文 预计4月工业增加值同比增长5.8% 。4月全国制造业PMI回落至49%，再度降至线下。主要分项指标中，产 需双双回落，原材料和出厂价格均有下行，原材料和产成品库存同步下降。从4月以来的中观高频数据来 看，汽车半钢胎和全钢胎开工率同比继续下降，化工行业开工率同比降幅均有走扩。六大发电集团耗煤同 比增速因去年同期基数走低而有所上升。整体来看，工业生产景气度保持平稳。我们预计，4月工业增加 值同比增速降至5.8%。 预计4月固定资产投资累计同比增长4.2%。 具体来看三大类投资，基建投资累计同比增速有所上升，制造 业投资累计同比增速有所下降，房地产投资累计同比增速略微下降。我们预计，4月投资累计增速或保持 稳定。 首先， 从基建相关的高频数据来看，水泥价格同比略有上升，螺纹钢累计产量同比降幅收窄，预 计基建投资累计增速有所上升； 其次， 42城地产销量累计同比降幅持续走扩，预计房地产投资额累计降 幅略微下降； 最后 ，乘联会乘用车批发和零售销量累计同比由升转降，预测制造业投资累计增速将有所 下降。我们预计，4月固定资产投资累计同比增速或保持稳定至4.2%。 预计4月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a reasonable recovery in prices to support macroeconomic stability, as current GDP growth is not aligned with low price levels, indicating a "quantity-price divergence" [1][4][6] - The article discusses the phenomenon where companies opt for "price for volume" strategies, leading to price declines while maintaining production, which can undermine market confidence [4][5] - Historical lessons from Japan's economic experience in the 1990s highlight the importance of setting price targets to ensure economic health, as mere GDP growth is insufficient [5][7][8] Group 2 - The adjustment of the CPI growth target from 3% to a more realistic 2% reflects a pragmatic approach to economic policy, emphasizing the need for a balance between quantity and price [8] - The article suggests that current monetary and fiscal policies prioritize GDP growth over price stability, indicating a need for increased focus on price metrics in future policy frameworks [8][9] - The goal for 2025 is to achieve approximately 5% GDP growth, but achieving a positive GDP deflator may require extraordinary policy measures, highlighting the critical role of price targets in economic planning [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the year - on - year profit of large - scale industrial enterprises turned positive to 2.5%, and the profit momentum improved marginally. The increase in quantity, driven by the "rush to export" and inventory replenishment, was the main reason for the profit recovery, despite the expanding year - on - year decline in PPI [26]. - The profit shares of the mid - and downstream industries increased compared to January - February, while the upstream share decreased. The mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry performed well with an expanding year - on - year increase, and the profit growth rates of optional and necessary consumer goods in the downstream weakened [26]. - Looking ahead, the "rush to export" rhythm may slow down in the second quarter. The industrial enterprise profit momentum may weaken marginally due to the potential impact of export slowdown on PPI and sales volume. However, with the "Four Stabilities" policy and possible incremental policies in the middle of the year, the profit recovery may gradually shift to domestic demand such as consumption and investment [29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry Perspective: "Rush to Export" Boosts Mid - and Downstream Performance - **Upstream**: The year - on - year decline in the mining industry widened, and the energy supply industry turned from positive to negative in terms of profit growth. For example, coal and oil and gas mining saw an expanded decline in profit, while non - metallic mining turned from negative to positive [9][18]. - **Mid - stream**: The year - on - year profit turned positive, and the equipment manufacturing industry outperformed the material processing industry. The profit of the mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry increased significantly, and the material processing industry also had a positive growth rate of 18% [19][21]. - **Downstream**: The growth rate of necessary consumer goods slowed down, and the profit of optional consumer goods weakened. However, the electronic equipment industry still performed strongly [20][21]. 3.2 Cost End: Marginal Improvement in Profit Margin - From January to March, the cost per 100 yuan of operating income for large - scale industrial enterprises was 85.37 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.17 yuan and a 0.26 - yuan increase from January - February. The cost pressure increased marginally. - The expense per 100 yuan of operating income was 8.43 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16 yuan and a 0.13 - yuan decrease from January - February, indicating significant cost - reduction effects. - The cumulative operating income profit margin was 4.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.17 pct but a 0.17 - pct increase from January - February, showing a slow improvement in profit efficiency [22]. 3.3 Inventory: Slight Replenishment of Actual Inventory - By the end of March, the finished - product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 6.55 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.6%, a 0.1 - pct increase from the end of February. After excluding PPI, the actual inventory growth rate was 6.7%, higher than 6.4% in February, indicating a slight replenishment [25]. - From January to March, the turnover days of finished - product inventory were 21.2 days, a 0.1 - day increase year - on - year but a 1.1 - day decrease from January - February. The average collection period of accounts receivable was 70.9 days, a 4.0 - day increase year - on - year but a 4.0 - day decrease from January - February. Although the turnover and collection speed were still slower than the same period, there was a marginal improvement [25]. - In March, the year - on - year growth rate of single - month operating income rose to 4.4%. Considering the expanding price decline, the actual destocking rhythm accelerated compared to January - February [25].

（原标题：2025年3月CPI、PPI数据点评——春节错位CPI上行，输入性因素PPI下行） 要点： ●春节错位CPI降幅收窄，内生动力有待进一步修复 ●输入性因素影响PPI降幅扩大，政策刺激叠加调结构PPI降幅缓慢收窄 ●需求不足问题仍需重视，未来价格表现或有改善 内容提要 2025年3月，CPI同比增长-0.1%，较2025年2月份上涨0.6个百分点；环比增长-0.4%，较2025年2月下降 0.2个百分点，受春节错位影响，本月CPI同比增速上涨明显；一季度CPI同比增长-0.1%，较2024年同期 下滑0.1个百分点，反映出当前有效需求依然相对不足，政策有待进一步发力。 2025年3月，PPI同比下跌2.5%，降幅较2月份扩张0.3个百分点；环比下跌0.4%，降幅较1月份扩张0.3个 百分点，这主要受国际大宗商品价格下降的输入性传导影响，反映出当前有效需求依然不足，经济压力 依然存在，叠加经济结构调整继续，PPI增速依然底部徘徊，经济仍需进一步刺激。 正文 春节错位CPI降幅收窄，内生动力有待进一步修复 输入性因素影响PPI降幅扩大，政策刺激叠加调结构PPI降幅缓慢收窄 2025年3月，CPI同比增长- ...

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic momentum[1] - Index B standardized shows a decrease of 0.43, significantly weaker than the historical average increase of 0.17 per week after the Spring Festival[1] - Investment and consumption sectors show a decline in prosperity, while the real estate sector remains stable[1] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices both decreased this week, with April CPI food prices expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, and non-food prices by about 0.1%[2] - Overall CPI is projected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year CPI expected to rise to zero[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decline by about 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -2.8%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of April 25, 2025, is 2.60%, compared to the current average of 1.65%[19] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to decrease to 3,141.29 from the current average of 3,272.71[19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to +10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [57]. Core Insights - In March 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 40,940 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 4.36% [6][11]. - Urban market growth has surpassed rural market growth for the first time in nearly 20 months, with urban retail sales increasing by 6% year-on-year [13]. - Online consumption continues to show strong growth, with online retail sales of goods and services increasing by 7.9% and 5.7% year-on-year, respectively [15]. - The consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.5% [31]. - The unemployment rate in March 2025 was 5.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [44]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The retail sales of consumer goods in March 2025 grew by 5.9% year-on-year, reaching 40,940 billion yuan, which is higher than the expected growth rate [11]. By Category - The share of goods retail has increased, with food and beverage categories showing stable growth. In March, the total retail sales of goods reached 36,705 billion yuan, also growing by 5.9% year-on-year [22][24]. - Essential goods showed robust growth, with food, beverages, and daily necessities increasing by 13.8%, 4.4%, and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively [29]. Price Performance - The CPI and PPI both decreased year-on-year, with the PPI declining by 2.5% due to weak upstream energy prices. The PPI-CPI gap widened to -2.4% [31][38]. Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate in March 2025 was 5.2%, which is consistent with the levels seen in 2019 and the previous year [44][47]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the high-end liquor and regional leading brands in the liquor sector, as the valuation is currently at a low point and policies are expected to boost demand [54]. - The cosmetics sector is also highlighted for stable growth, with domestic brands likely to increase their market share amid rising uncertainties in international relations [54].