Core Viewpoint - Despite the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged during the recent FOMC meeting, signaling a hawkish stance [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve announced on June 18 that the target range for the federal funds rate remains at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting where no action was taken [1]. - Since September of the previous year, the Fed has cut rates three times, totaling a reduction of 100 basis points [1]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the potential tariff policies from President Trump could lead to "significant" inflation risks, prompting a cautious approach in policy-making [3]. - The Fed's dot plot suggests two rate cuts of 25 basis points each are expected this year, consistent with previous forecasts [3]. - Economic growth expectations have been downgraded from 1.7% to 1.4%, while the unemployment rate forecast for 2025 has been adjusted from 4.4% to 4.5% [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Market Reactions - The Fed's semiannual monetary policy report highlighted that while short-term inflation expectations have risen due to tariff concerns, long-term expectations remain at pre-pandemic levels [4]. - The overall inflation rate in May was reported at 2.4%, with declining housing costs being a significant factor in controlling inflation [5]. - The dollar index has weakened this year, influenced by trade policy changes affecting investor sentiment towards the U.S. economic outlook [5]. - UBS's Chief Investment Officer for Greater China anticipates that the Fed may begin rate cuts in September, potentially leading to three cuts within the year, depending on economic and market conditions [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is being closely monitored by the Fed, with potential impacts on energy prices, although the long-term effects on inflation are expected to be limited [3]. - The tension in the Middle East has contributed to rising price pressures, further complicating the inflation landscape [5].

| 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | | | 2025/6/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | 1759.900 | 21.6↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1325.6 | +37.10↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | -13.10↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 434.30 | | | 270.80 | -33.70↓ | | EC合约基差 | -19.70↓ | 177.24 | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -2043↓ | 41485 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 239.51↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1937.14 | | | 2,083.46 | -825.22↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -218.65↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1869.59 | | | 1,227.97 | -0.10↓ | | ...

匈牙利央行：价格限制措施的引入将抑制今年的通胀，但如果撤销这些措施，未来几年通胀率可能会以 类似的程度上升。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-26 要素交织延续，⾦价震荡偏弱 短线来看，多空因素交织，黄金趋于震荡。中长线我们维持 年中报《强者恒强，贵金属牛市持续》中的观点。 3）美联储主席鲍威尔周二对国会议员表示，今年夏天关税 上调可能会开始推高通胀，这将是美联储考虑降息的关键时 期。 价格逻辑： 金价近期走势受到多重因素影响，中东紧张局势缓和削弱了 黄金的避险吸引力，但美元走软和美联储降息预期为金价提 供了支撑。尽管以色列与伊朗的临时停火协议存在不确定 性，市场情绪仍偏向谨慎。投资者正等待本周美国关键宏观 经济数据（PCE）的公布，以寻找新的交易方向。此外， 美联储主席鲍威尔的鹰派言论短暂提振美元，压制黄金。 美联储主席鲍威尔在国会听证会上表示，今夏实施的关税上 调可能推高通胀，这将影响联储未来的降息决策。他强调， 在劳动力市场强劲且关税影响尚不确定的情况下，美联储处 于"有利地位"保持耐心，明确排除了7月会议立即降息的可 能性。鲍威尔指出，关税对通胀的影响可能在6-7月数据中 显现，若通胀压力受控则可能"更早而非更晚"启动降息。 当前黄金面临三重矛盾交织 ...

Group 1: Economic Conflict and Policy Divergence - The conflict between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell has become a global focus, highlighting structural economic contradictions in the U.S. [1] - Trump's threats to fire Powell stem from disagreements over monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate cuts amid inflation concerns [1][8] - The outcome of this conflict could significantly impact the future of the U.S. dollar's dominance [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Biden administration's fiscal stimulus exceeding $7 trillion and the Fed's zero interest rates have led to a surge in the money supply (M2) from $15 trillion to $23 trillion, resulting in a 9.1% inflation rate in 2023, the highest in 40 years [3] - Despite aggressive rate hikes to 5.25%-5.5%, inflation expectations remain entrenched, with one-year inflation expectations at 6.7% as of April 2025 [5][3] Group 3: Historical Context and Fed Independence - Powell's reluctance to cut rates is influenced by historical lessons from the 1970s, where political pressures led to unchecked inflation, resulting in a 13.3% inflation rate and over 10% unemployment [5][7] - The independence of the Fed is crucial for controlling inflation, and Powell has indicated he would legally defend this principle against political threats [8][7] Group 4: Tariff Policies and Economic Impact - Trump's tariff policies have raised average import tax rates from 2.6% to 19.3%, significantly increasing consumer prices, with average household expenses rising by $2,300 annually [10][12] - The tariffs have led to a decline in U.S. manufacturing, with companies like GM and Tesla facing layoffs and project halts due to increased costs [12][10] Group 5: Debt and Economic Structure - U.S. government debt is projected to exceed $40 trillion by 2025, with annual interest payments reaching $1.6 trillion, creating a "Ponzi scheme" scenario [17] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has decreased to 10.8%, while low-end service jobs dominate, indicating a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street [19][17] Group 6: Global Implications and Dollar Dominance - Trump's policies have accelerated the decline of dollar hegemony, with global central banks selling $215 billion in U.S. debt in Q1 2025 and increasing the share of the yuan in international reserves to 6.8% [19] - The potential collapse of dollar credibility could lead to a spike in government bond yields, triggering a global financial crisis [19][21] Group 7: Conclusion on Economic Future - The ongoing struggle between Trump and Powell reflects the impending collapse of the U.S. economic model, with both monetary policy and fiscal strategies failing to address underlying issues [21] - Regardless of the outcome, the fractures in the dollar system are evident, with potential severe consequences for the U.S. economy [21]

Core Insights - Tokyo's apartment rents are rising at the fastest pace in 30 years, signaling a new wave of inflationary pressure in Japan's economy [1][4] - The latest data from Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs shows that rents in Tokyo increased by 1.3% year-on-year from April to May, marking the largest increase since 1994 [1][4] - This increase, while modest compared to Tokyo's core inflation rate of 3.6%, indicates a significant shift in the rental market since the asset bubble burst in the early 1990s [1][4] Rental Market Dynamics - The rise in rents is attributed to multiple factors, including increased mortgage costs as the Bank of Japan ends its negative interest rate policy, with floating rates now at 1.875%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis [5] - Approximately 80% of home loans in Japan are on floating rates, leading landlords to pass on the increased costs to tenants [5] - Maintenance costs are also rising, with significant increases in expenses for repairs and replacements, further driving up rental prices [5] Investment Trends - A notable influx of foreign investors is expected, with 20% to 40% of new apartments in Tokyo projected to be purchased by overseas buyers in the second half of the 2024 fiscal year [5] - This trend may accelerate changes in the market pricing mechanism, as these investors may not be familiar with Japan's two-year fixed rent practices [5] - The combination of a booming stock market and a depreciating yen is attracting foreign capital, making Tokyo's real estate a target for global asset allocation [5] Policy Responses - The Bank of Japan has identified the real estate market as a key area for monitoring in its latest financial system report, contrasting with its previous observations of stagnant rents over the past two decades [5] - In response to rising inflation, the government has announced a subsidy of 20,000 yen per person and plans to restore utility subsidies to balance inflationary pressures with public welfare [5] Consumer Impact - The rising rents are significantly impacting the disposable income of residents, with rent now consuming 28.3% of the monthly disposable income for single residents in Tokyo [4] - This financial strain is forcing individuals to cut back on discretionary spending, highlighting the microeconomic effects of inflation through the housing channel [6]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is not prepared to yield to Trump's immediate interest rate cut demands, indicating that certain conditions must be met for a change in stance [1] - Powell emphasizes the need to observe inflation data before deciding on interest rate cuts, particularly in light of high tariffs potentially raising inflation temporarily [2][3] - The upcoming June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is critical; a month-over-month increase of 0.2% or higher could delay rate cuts until September, while a low increase like May's 0.1% could reignite July cut expectations [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is tasked with maintaining low inflation while also ensuring a strong job market, with Powell suggesting that significant deterioration in employment could prompt earlier or more aggressive rate cuts [3] - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, signs of stress in the job market are emerging, including a slowdown in hiring and an increase in unemployment claims [3]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are accelerating the sell-off of U.S. long-term bond funds, leading to the largest outflow since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Outflows - In the second quarter of this year, U.S. long-term bond funds, which include government and corporate bonds, experienced a net outflow of nearly $11 billion, breaking the trend of approximately $20 billion in inflows over the past 12 quarters [2]. - This significant redemption is occurring amid growing concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook, with analysts predicting that the outflow could match or exceed the levels seen during the market turmoil in early 2020 [2][3]. Group 2: Concerns Over U.S. Fiscal Health - The large scale of U.S. debt is a core factor causing investor unease, with the "Big Beautiful" plan proposed by Trump potentially adding trillions to the national debt over the next decade [3]. - Despite claims from the White House that tariffs and faster economic growth will help reduce debt, the market remains cautious [3]. - Investors are also preparing for potential higher inflation due to tariffs on major trading partners, which is a significant concern for bond investors as it erodes the real value of fixed interest payments [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The outflow of funds reflects concerns about the long-term sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, with high inflation and a large supply of government bonds contributing to market volatility [3]. - Long-term U.S. Treasury prices have dropped about 1% this quarter, with the 30-year Treasury yield recently falling to 4.816% [3]. Group 4: Shift to Short-Term Bonds - In contrast to the long-term bonds, over $39 billion has flowed into short-term U.S. bond funds this quarter, driven by the Federal Reserve maintaining high short-term interest rates, making these funds attractive in the current uncertain market [6]. Group 5: Long-Term Outlook - Despite the significant outflows, some experts remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term role of the U.S. Treasury market, suggesting that investors may diversify into international bonds but do not foresee the end of U.S. Treasuries as a core holding in global fixed-income portfolios [7]. - However, market participants may start demanding more compensation for holding bonds further out on the yield curve [7].

FICC日报 | 2025-06-26 以伊冲突生效，北约发表联合宣言 市场分析 国内5月经济仍待夯实。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或将拖累 财政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱，前期需 求透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，6月20日新华社发布后续以旧换新国补将继续下达。6月 24日，央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》。6月25日央行开展3000亿元MLF操作， 6月中期流动性净投放总额已达3180亿元。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码的可 能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经 贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。关于7月9日到期的关税延后政策，6 月12日特朗普政府首次公开承认其关税时间表存在灵活性。美国暂缓关税的截止日逼近，欧盟准备采取更多关税 反制措施以对美施压；加拿大与美国力争在30天内达成贸易协议，两国贸易谈判代表们本周将会面三次。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the potential impact of proposed tariffs by the Trump administration on inflation and economic stability, as articulated by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during a Senate hearing [2] - Powell indicated that while tariffs might cause a one-time increase in prices, the long-term inflation risks should not be overlooked, emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious approach to maintain price stability and economic health [2] - The actual impact of tariffs on prices could exceed expectations, depending on the scale, implementation, and market reactions, suggesting that the Federal Reserve must manage these risks carefully [2] Group 2 - In the gold market, prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the current price at $3331.27 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - The gold price opened at $3332.09 per ounce, reaching a high of $3339.76 and a low of $3328.99 during the trading session [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is likely to face resistance below $3342.00 and support above $3311.00, with potential targets for downward movement set between $3316.00 and $3301.00 [3]