12月10日，国内期货市场沪银主力合约2602再度领涨，截至上午收盘报涨4.67%，盘中最高冲抵14388 元/千克，刷新历史高点。 国际市场上，伦敦现货白银价格也不断冲高，截至发稿，伦敦银现最高报61.469美元/盎司，较一年前 约30美元/盎司的价格已实现翻倍增长。 此外，供需结构性矛盾成为白银走强的另一诱因。由于全球矿山资本支出的低迷，白银已经连续四年赤 字。而今年，印度作为全球白银最大消费市场，今年其首饰和银器需求上升，进而大量从英国市场进口 白银。而美国232调查将白银列入关键矿产，引发交易者对白银加征关税的担忧，其他主要产地"抢出 口"现象使得COMEX白银库存年内走高，而伦敦金库库存则是回落到近十年最低水平，可交货源的流 通紧俏推升白银价格。 上海钢联稀贵金属资讯部白银分析师黄廷则认为，白银及黄金等贵金属近年来大涨的动力源于全球信用 货币体系的动摇。黄金作为历史悠久的一般等价物和传统的信用锚，正在逐渐脱离实体货物生产体系， 反映的是主流浮动汇率国家信用货币价值的整体重估。白银作为贵金属，同样随之获得系统性的价值支 撑。 宏观层面，市场对美联储12月降息预期较强，低利率环境继续支撑白银的避险和投资 ...

美东时间12月8日至9日，据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，市场对美联储12月降息的预期进一步增强，概率从86.2%上升至89.4%，维持利率不变的概率则从 13.8%降至10.6%。 这已是美联储年内最后一场货币政策会议前夕，市场预期最强烈的一次利率调整信号。金融市场正屏息以待，等待12月会议结果的揭晓。 01 概率飙升 短短24小时内，市场对美联储降息预期的变化令人瞩目。根据最新CME FedWatch工具数据，美联储在12月会议上降息25个基点的概率已攀升至89.4%，而 维持利率不变的概率则降至10.6%。 市场对美联储降息的预期在短短24小时内变得更加确定，概率从86.2%跃升至89.4%。 这一变化较前一日明显增强，12月8日的数据显示，降息25个基点的概率为86.2%，维持不变的概率为13.8%。 市场似乎对美联储的政策转向越来越有信心。这是自美联储启动本轮加息周期以来，市场对降息预期最为强烈的一次。 02 近期轨迹 市场对美联储政策路径的预期不仅仅局限于12月会议。根据CME数据，美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为68.5%，维持利率不变的概率为7.8%， 累计降息50个基点的概率为23 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a strong oscillation due to the interplay between macroeconomic expectations and fundamental realities, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated to continue [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of last week, the nickel market has shown a strong oscillation trend influenced by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and record-high copper prices, which have collectively boosted the non-ferrous metal sector [1] - Despite some nickel companies reducing production capacity leading to marginal improvements, the overall market fundamentals remain weak, with both the stainless steel and new energy sectors showing signs of fatigue [1] Group 2: Price Expectations - The overall trading performance in the nickel market has been average, and market forecasts suggest that nickel prices may continue to exhibit a fluctuating pattern in the short term [1]

新华社纽约12月9日电（记者徐静）受强劲基本面拉动，芝加哥期货交易所明年3月交割的白银期货价格 9日大幅上涨，场内交易一度突破每盎司61美元，白银现货价格也突破每盎司60美元关口，创历史新 高。 美国联邦储备委员会降息预期也助推白银价格上涨。美联储定于9日和10日举行货币政策会议并公布议 息决定。市场人士表示，近期美国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能在本月降息25个基点。 此外，全球资金大量涌入以白银为支撑的交易所交易产品（ETP），进一步强化银价上涨趋势。分析人 士认为，白银价格将继续保持稳健上升趋势，但短期大概率呈高位震荡态势，回调风险不容忽视。 （完） 受全球供需缺口持续扩大、强劲工业消费以及投资者兴趣重燃等因素影响，白银价格自8月下旬以来快 速上涨，今年价格涨幅已超过100%，表现远超黄金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices surged past $60 per ounce on December 9, reaching a historic high, driven by multiple factors including rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, increasing global supply constraints, and its inclusion in the U.S. "critical minerals" list [1] Group 1: Price Performance - As of the report, spot silver was priced at $61.21 per ounce, reflecting a 0.94% increase [1] - Year-to-date, silver has seen an impressive increase of nearly 110%, significantly outperforming gold and platinum [1] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - Gold has also experienced a rise of 60% this year, surpassing the $4200 mark, but its growth rate is still less than that of silver [1] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped below 70 for the first time since July 2021, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver has surged, breaking the $61 per ounce mark, and has doubled in value this year, significantly outperforming gold [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - On December 10, spot silver prices rose to $61.197 per ounce, marking a 0.88% increase [1]. - The Shanghai silver futures contract saw an increase of 5%, reaching a historical high of 14,328 yuan per kilogram [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core driver of rising silver prices has shifted from macroeconomic expectations to a tight physical supply situation, with global silver markets facing structural supply shortages [2]. - COMEX silver inventories have dropped to multi-year lows, contributing to the tight supply outlook [2]. - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, is expected to drive silver usage to approximately 195.7 million ounces by 2025, setting a new historical high [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Influences - Market sentiment has been bolstered by expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, with analysts noting that the potential for rate cuts has already been priced into precious metals [3].

中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 德邦证券指出，过去两周全球大宗商品迎来普遍上涨，贵金属与有色金属表现强势，其中银价领涨。国 内商品市场同样呈现涨多跌少格局，有色金属板块表现突出。在美联储降息预期升温的背景下，美元走 弱进一步支撑了以美元计价的大宗商品价格。贵金属作为传统避险资产，在流动性宽松预期下获得资金 青睐。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 ...

格隆汇12月10日｜据每经，受美联储降息预期升温、全球供应紧张加剧以及被列入美国"关键矿产"清单 等多重因素推动，白银价格12月9日强势突破每盎司60美元关口，创下历史新高。今年以来，白银涨幅 已接近110%，表现远超黄金和铂金。截至发稿，现货白银报61.21美元/盎司，涨幅0.94%。作为对比， 尽管黄金今年也上涨了60%并突破4200美元大关，但在涨幅力度上仍逊色于白银，导致金银比价降至70 倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。 中银证券认为，白银补涨弹性或优于黄金。黄金仍处于上升通道，但 当前处于加速上行后的高位震荡阶段，后续行情的催化关键在于"实际利率下行"与"美元走弱"能否形成 共振。相比之下，白银的短期确定性更强。当前处于历史高位的"金银比"蕴含着较大的修复空间，而光 伏等工业领域需求增长为银价提供了支撑，较低的库存水平使其价格短期弹性或优于黄金。 ...

现货白银价格9日盘中首次突破每盎司60美元，年初至今涨幅已超100%。分析认为，白银价格不断创出新高是实物供需失衡、美联储货币政策转向与全球大 量资金涌入市场共同作用的结果。国际投行瑞银已将2026年白银目标价上调至58-60美元/盎司，甚至不排除触及65美元/盎司的可能。但市场上也不乏警告之 声，一些交易者强调，白银今年的涨幅已经十分巨大，这意味着调整的不可避免。 美联储内部存分歧 特朗普再次施压降息 当地时间9日，美联储开始举行为期两天的货币政策例会，并将于会后公布议息决定。市场普遍认为，美联储再次降息的可能性较大。受此影响，现货白银 价格再创历史新高。 0:00 市场人士表示，当前国际金融市场走势已体现美联储降息预期。近期美国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能在本月降息25个基点。目前，针对12月是否再次 降息，美联储内部存在分歧：多位地区联储主席日前公开表示担忧通胀而反对降息，而三位特朗普任命的理事则支持降息。 9日，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储主席鲍威尔应立刻降息，同时他将把"支持立即大幅降息"作为选择新任美联储主席的"试金石"。下任美联储主席热门人 选、白宫经济顾问哈赛特9日则表示，他认为美联储"有充足 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports Group 2: Report Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong throughout the year. Maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold existing long positions, and consider adding long positions on price pullbacks. Monitor the US interest rate decision and supply - side changes [1] Nickel - After the recent production cuts, the supply surplus has narrowed, but the supply pressure remains strong, limiting the upside potential. Macro factors are improving, but the price driver weakens after the valuation repair. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price has declined, and domestic inventory is increasing. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2] Stainless Steel - Macroeconomic conditions are temporarily stable, and supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory reduction is difficult. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate and repair, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Focus on the implementation of steel mill production cuts and raw material price changes [3] Zinc - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the export space has opened, but spot trading is average, causing zinc prices to oscillate. As TC decreases, supply pressure eases, and short - term prices have limited downside. Refined zinc exports tighten the spot market, boosting domestic zinc prices. In the future, if TC stabilizes, zinc production may increase again. Monitor the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract reference range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [5] Copper - Globally, the structural imbalance in copper supply and inventory drives short - term price surges, and price volatility may intensify. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. The main contract should pay attention to the support level of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [6] Lithium Carbonate - The current macro environment and fundamentals support prices, but there are limited new driving factors. The market faces the resumption of large - scale production and the sustainability of off - season demand. In the short - term, the price is expected to trade in a wide range, with the main contract reference range of 92,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [8] Aluminum - Alumina supply is in excess, and prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Observe the actual production cut scale and inventory inflection point. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term, trading in the range of 21,500 - 22,200 yuan/ton, but beware of the risk of price pullbacks. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and domestic inventory reduction [9] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range shifting down to 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Consider closing positions if market expectations change [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures may continue to oscillate at high levels. Given the weak demand and significant production cutbacks, if there are no substantial production cuts, the spot price has limited upside potential, and the futures price is more likely to decline towards the spot price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [11] Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price has limited downside due to strong cost support but is restricted by high inventory and high prices from rising. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. Monitor the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price increased to 316,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.64%; SMM 1 tin premium increased by 200% to 150 yuan/ton [1] - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased to 120,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.12%; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 1.01% to 4,900 yuan/ton [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference increased by 2.17% to 470 yuan/ton [3] - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased to 23,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.26%; the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [5] - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased to 92,215 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.09%; the premium decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 92,750 yuan/ton; the basis remained unchanged at 92,750 yuan/ton [8] - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased to 21,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.18%; the premium remained unchanged at - 90 yuan/ton [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon decreased to 9,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.08%; the basis increased by 37.60% to 860 yuan/ton [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,600 yuan/ton; the scrap - to - refined price difference in Foshan for crushed primary aluminum increased by 3.86% to 1,829 yuan/ton [12] Inter - month Spreads - **Tin**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 42.86% to - 200 yuan/ton [1] - **Nickel**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 remained unchanged at - 115 yuan/ton [3] - **Zinc**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [5] - **Copper**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 1,840 yuan/ton to 1,580 yuan/ton [8] - **Aluminum**: The spread of AL 2512 - 2601 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 8,750 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [12] Fundamental Data Production - **Tin**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11,632 tons; SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [1] - **Nickel**: In November, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% to 33,342 tons [2] - **Stainless Steel**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons [3] - **Zinc**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons [5] - **Copper**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35% to 95,350 tons [8] - **Aluminum**: In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% to 363.66 million tons [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons [10] - **Polysilicon**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 7.50% to 2.58 million tons; monthly production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons [11] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons; primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84% to 30.27 million tons [12] Import and Export - **Tin**: In October, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% to 526 tons; exports decreased by 15.33% to 1,480 tons [1] - **Nickel**: In October, refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% to 9,741 tons [2] - **Stainless Steel**: In November, stainless steel imports increased by 3.18% to 12.41 million tons; exports decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [3] - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc imports decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons; exports increased by 243.79% to 0.85 million tons [5] - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate imports increased by 21.86% to 23,881 tons; exports increased by 63.05% to 246 tons [8] - **Aluminum**: In October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 0.61% to 24.84 million tons; exports decreased by 15.18% to 2.46 million tons [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, industrial silicon exports decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [10] - **Polysilicon**: In November, polysilicon imports increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons; exports decreased by 27.99% to 0.15 million tons [11] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons; exports increased by 31.49% to 3.09 million tons [12] Inventory - **Tin**: SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96% to 6,865 tons; social inventory increased by 2.39% to 8,012 tons [1] - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% to 42,508 tons; social inventory increased by 2.71% to 56,848 tons [2] - **Stainless Steel**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.06% to 49.20 million tons [3] - **Zinc**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 5.75% to 13.60 million tons; LME inventory increased by 0.69% to 5.8 million tons [5] - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased by 0.82% to 16.03 million tons; bonded - area inventory decreased by 12.82% to 7.75 million tons [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 23.36% to 64,560 tons [8] - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.17% to 59.50 million tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.48% to 52.6 million tons [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: National social inventory increased by 1.45% to 55.80 million tons [10] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56% to 29.10 million tons [11] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 0.54% to 5.53 million tons [12]