黄金历史高位走反复，原油反弹承压继续空！ 最新数据显示全球最大的实物黄金持仓机构ETF近期持续增持黄金，强烈的看涨意愿在市场不断发酵，主要的因素还是近期美 国的经济数据支撑美联储进一步降息，提振了美联储来年一月份继续降息的预期，其二中东地缘政治冲突不断，避险情绪推动 黄金走高，其三白银钯金等强势的需求推动价格不断刷新历史新高，然后给到黄金一定带动，节前黄金先是冲高到4525一线刷 新历史高点之后走出一波可观的回落跌破4500之后维持窄幅整理，晚间走出一波加速最低触及4448附近然后如期企稳反抽，我 们晚间跟大家分享的4450附近多单也是成功兑现到了目标位，今天早盘开盘黄金突破4500一线之后加速拉伸再度冲击一波历史 记录触及4531一线然后承压回落，目前维持高位整理，操作上关注4500分水岭，回踩企稳接多，跌破4500可以顺势看延续调整 原油方面，一方面是需求的相对疲软数据，虽然降息预期有望提振原油需求，同时中东地区的地缘政治冲突保持，以及美对委 内瑞拉的制裁也给到了美原油供应端的炒作空间，原油近期也是走出了一波延续性的反弹走势，但是目前来看再度开始承压 了，我们节前跟大家分享的58.6附近空单目前继续持仓中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly copper and precious metals, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [1][2] - On December 26, 2025, copper futures prices surged past 98,000 yuan/ton, reaching a historical high, with the Zhongzheng Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index rising by 3.54% [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of optimizing traditional industries like alumina and copper smelting, which are crucial for the national economy and defense [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities noted that the U.S. November CPI unexpectedly cooled, leading to market adjustments for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, which, along with abundant liquidity and supply constraints, pushed non-ferrous metal prices to new highs [2] - The strong performance of non-ferrous metals is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic financial policies and structural changes in supply and demand, including the onset of a global rate-cutting cycle and a weakening dollar [2] - The Tianhong Zhongzheng Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index closely tracks the performance of 30 major listed companies involved in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare earth metals, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [2]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals market continues to show strength, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and geopolitical risk sentiment, with silver outperforming gold significantly [1][3][5] - Silver's unique dual attributes, serving both as a financial asset and having important industrial uses, are contributing to its price increase, particularly with rising demand from the photovoltaic and new energy sectors [3] Group 2: Base Metals - The copper market remains on an upward trend, while aluminum is experiencing high-level fluctuations, and zinc has shown a pattern of rising and then retreating during the week [1] - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased supply from the revival of certain lithium mines and a slowdown in demand during the December to February period, leading to a market correction [2] Group 3: Agricultural Products - Egg futures have rebounded after a period of decline, driven by optimistic expectations regarding future capacity reduction, despite ongoing weak spot prices [4] - Soybean meal prices are showing a strong oscillating trend, while corn prices are fluctuating, and live pig prices have seen a slight rebound [1][4]

Group 1 - The lead market is experiencing multiple macroeconomic benefits, with expectations of a weaker US dollar due to ongoing interest rate cut predictions from the Federal Reserve, which could open up upward space for non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [2] - The central bank's signals for continued moderate monetary policy easing into 2026 and potential rate cuts before the Spring Festival are boosting market confidence in lead consumption recovery [2] - Domestic policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges and consumption promotion measures are expected to enhance demand in downstream sectors like lead-acid batteries [2] Group 2 - Environmental controls have been upgraded in response to heavy pollution, leading to expectations of supply contraction, which is a short-term macro catalyst for lead prices [2] - The lead price is anticipated to rise slightly today, supported by favorable macro liquidity expectations and a stronger yuan reducing import costs [2] - The industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with traditional automotive battery demand remaining strong while electric bicycle sectors show weakness, impacting downstream purchasing enthusiasm [2]

Core Insights - The global precious metals market has rebounded sharply, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent supply mismatches in key spot markets, with silver and gold prices reaching historical highs [1][3][12]. Group 1: Silver Market - Spot silver recorded its fifth consecutive day of gains, currently priced at $74.37 per ounce, with a peak above $75 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 4.5% [1]. - The silver market is experiencing severe physical squeeze, with the one-year silver swap rate minus U.S. rates dropping to -7.18%, indicating extreme tightness in the physical market [12]. - Concerns over potential tariffs or trade restrictions related to key mineral imports are exacerbating hoarding behavior among investors [12]. Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices have steadily recovered, trading above $4,500 per ounce, currently at $4,502.46, with a peak above $4,530 per ounce, setting a new historical high [3]. - Geopolitical developments, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and military actions in Nigeria, have increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [14]. - Strong inflows into gold ETFs continue, with global holdings increasing monthly, except for May, and the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, seeing a year-to-date increase of over 20% in holdings [14]. Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market - Both platinum and palladium rebounded sharply after a previous day of adjustment, with spot platinum rising over 5% [6][15]. - The rebound is supported by ongoing supply tightness and resilient demand from automotive catalysts, attracting buyers back into the market [15].

宏观层面，外盘圣诞休市对市场指引作用有限，不过美联储降息预期为市场带来周期性支撑。同 时，"去美元化"趋势延续，临近岁末，人民币开启强势升值行情。12 月 25 日，离岸人民币对美元率先 升破 7.02 关口，为 2024 年 10 月以来首次；在岸人民币对美元日内也升破 7.03 关口，上涨近百点，极 大提振了市场多头情绪。此外，国内央行货币政策委员会第四季度例会明确，将继续实施适度宽松的货 币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，充分发挥货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，强化货币与财政 政策协同配合，以促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升。这些举措有助于稳固市场消费信心，推动经济协 调发展，为金属市场提供了有力支撑。 基本面，国内年底消费仍有韧性、铝锭库存仍处低位。尽管电解铝运行产能略有增加，但近期进口量下 降，供应总体变化不大。现货市场上，年底封账结算使得不少持货商选择不出货或等待后市，而下游因 恐高情绪升温，仅维持最低程度的刚需采购，消费量难以弥补出货缺口，整体出货者居多，现货贴水面 临进一步走阔压力。但市场也不乏存在追涨和节前补货的情况，使得整体现货采买维持在较为温和的水 平。 综合来看，国内市场氛围偏暖，政策 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The supply - side pressure of coking coal is released, and with downstream winter storage and anti - involution expectations, the market sentiment turns strong. Pay attention to downstream replenishment rhythm [1]. - PTA is expected to have inventory reduction in December and no inventory accumulation pressure in January. In the long - term, processing fees will improve. Adopt a bullish strategy at low levels [1]. - The iron ore market has strong supply and weak demand, and futures prices are expected to be under pressure [3]. - Rebar prices may have a weak and narrow - range adjustment in the short - term [3]. - The short - term price of live pigs will rebound and then weaken. Monitor southern curing and farmers' slaughter volume [4]. - The increase in palm oil exports is limited, and prices will be volatile and bullish in the short - term [4]. - The spot price of soybean meal has support, while the M05 contract is bullish in the short - term. It may be pressured if imports increase and demand doesn't improve [5]. - It's better to wait and see for crude oil in the short - term due to geopolitical concerns [6]. - Adopt a bullish strategy at low levels for natural rubber in the short - term [7]. - Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock in the short - term [8]. - The probability of silver peaking in the short - term increases, and avoid over - bullish positions [8]. - Methanol is expected to be bearish in the short - term due to strong supply and weak demand [9][10]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be in a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [10]. - Gold may be in a high - level shock in the medium - term, and avoid over - bullish positions [11]. - The bond market should be viewed with a volatile mindset in the short - term [11]. - Plastics are expected to have a volatile trend in the short - term [12]. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - This week, the utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine sample approved production capacity was 84.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.874 million tons, a decrease of 54,000 tons week - on - week, and the raw coal inventory was 4.831 million tons, an increase of 42,000 tons week - on - week [1]. PTA - The PTA social inventory was 2.937 million tons, a decrease of 53,700 tons from the previous statistical period. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.53%, and the polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate was around 86.66% [1]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 88.342 million tons, a decrease of 1.5053 million tons week - on - week. The daily consumption of imported ore was 0.28327 million tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.19 days, a decrease of 0.33 days week - on - week [3]. Rebar - As of the week of December 25, the output was 0.18439 million tons, an increase of 27,100 tons from last week, a growth rate of 1.49%. The factory inventory was 0.14006 million tons, an increase of 5200 tons from last week, a growth rate of 0.37%. The social inventory was 0.29419 million tons, a decrease of 188,100 tons from last week, a decline rate of 6.01%. The apparent demand was 0.20268 million tons, a decrease of 59,600 tons from last week, a decline rate of 2.86% [3]. Live Pigs - On December 25, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.44 yuan/kg, a 0.5% increase from the previous day, and the price of eggs was 7.32 yuan/kg, a 1.5% decrease from the previous day [4]. Palm Oil - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period last month [4]. Soybean Meal - As of December 25, the domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The price in Tianjin was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong it was 3050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu it was 3030 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [5]. Crude Oil - Due to the Western Christmas holiday, international crude oil futures were closed on December 25. Russia will suspend production increase from January next year [6]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material latex was 54.7 Thai baht/kg (- 0.5/- 0.91%), and the price of cup lump was 50.85 Thai baht/kg (0.05/0.1%). The price of Hainan latex for whole - milk production was 14,900 yuan/ton (0/0%), and for concentrated latex production was also 14,900 yuan/ton (0/0%). Hainan's production is decreasing, and some areas have stopped tapping. Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 11 months increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and exports to China increased by 24% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points, and the full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94 percentage points [7]. Copper - Workers at Glencore's Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile may go on strike on December 29, which may cause monthly losses of over $100 million to the company. The mine's expected copper cathode production in 2025 is 29,000 - 32,000 metric tons [8]. Silver - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi's remarks boosted the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, but silver's upward momentum is insufficient [8]. Methanol - The methanol market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly methanol capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%. The downstream total capacity utilization rate was 74.26%, a weekly decrease of 0.52%. The Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1.4125 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.1937 million tons. The Chinese methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 0.0404 million tons, a weekly increase of 12,800 tons, and the sample enterprise orders to be shipped were 0.01936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 26,800 tons [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1256 yuan/ton, and the price was relatively stable recently. The weekly soda ash production was 711,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.4385 million tons, a weekly decrease of 4.06%. The float glass开工率 was 73.89%, a weekly decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The national average price of float glass was 1076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 58.623 million weight cases, a week - on - week increase of 0.11% [10]. Gold - The Japanese government raised its economic growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 to 1.1% and expects a 1.3% growth in fiscal year 2026, which may support gold prices [11]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank continued to over - renew MLF and conduct outright reverse repurchases in December, releasing 300 billion yuan of long - term liquidity. The net investment of the two tools this year totaled 4.961 trillion yuan [11]. Plastics - The supply - demand situation of plastics is that supply is strong and demand is weak. Enterprises have inventory pressure, and the cost of crude oil is stable [12].

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 圣诞节 COMEX 贵金属休市。沪金收涨 1.07%报 1019.6 元/克，沪银涨 5.50%报 18131 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 24 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.71 吨，持仓量为 1068.27 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 56.4 吨，当前持仓量为 16446.97 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 15.5%，维持 利率不变的概率为 84.5%。到明年 3 月累计降息 25 个基点 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月26日CME"美联储观察"公布利率预期概率】12月26日，CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储明年1月 降息25个基点概率为15.5%，维持利率不变概率为84.5%。 其还透露，到明年3月累计降息25个基点概率 为42.2%，维持利率不变概率为51.8%，累计降息50个基点概率为6.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is experiencing its strongest year since 1979, with New York futures gold prices nearing a 71% annual increase, reflecting historical patterns of market behavior during times of global turmoil [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Multiple historical factors are converging to create a bull market for gold, including frequent geopolitical tensions and central banks purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually, which redefines strategic reserves [3] - Market expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, further driving demand [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Gold is transitioning from a mere commodity to a "financial ballast" that hedges against global systemic risks, suggesting a shift in its role in investment portfolios [3] - For ordinary investors, incorporating a portion of gold (such as through ETFs) into long-term asset allocation is recommended to navigate uncertainty, while cautioning against short-term speculation due to volatility [3]