Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1.1 trillion yuan three-month reverse repurchase operation on October 9, marking the first working day after the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday [1] - In October, there is a total of 1.3 trillion yuan maturing, with the PBOC expected to continue net injections through reverse repurchase operations [1] - The central bank has been actively using various monetary policy tools, including medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and reverse repos, to maintain liquidity in the market [2] Group 2 - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasized the need to keep liquidity ample and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning social financing growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2] - Analysts expect the PBOC to maintain a flexible and anticipatory policy approach in response to domestic demand shortages and ongoing global uncertainties [2] - The continuous increase in reverse repurchase operations and MLF indicates a commitment to supporting government bond issuances during a peak issuance period [2]

10月9日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展6120亿元7天期逆回购操作。由于当日有20633亿元逆回购到期，实现净回笼14513亿元。 | | | | 期限 | 操作利率 | 投标量 | 中标量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7天 | 1.40% | 6120亿元 | 6120亿元 | 央行在9月30日提前预告称，10月9日，央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 | | | 来源：央行网站 从逆回购到期情况看，10月10日还有6000亿元逆回购到期，本周逆回购到期量合计为2.66万亿元。 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，央行在国庆假期后首个工作日开展10月首次买断式逆回购操作。 央行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会提出，保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、 价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 来源：央行网站 数据显示，10月将有8000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，央行今日开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，意味着10月3 个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to further cut interest rates due to weaker-than-expected employment data and rising risks in the labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Activity and Labor Market - The Federal Reserve noted a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year and a weak labor market, with inflation still slightly above the long-term target of 2% [1] - Following the monetary policy meeting on September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25% [1] - This marks the first rate cut in 2025, following three cuts in 2024 [1] Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Impact - There is a divergence of opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - Some officials believe that without considering this year's tariff increases, inflation levels would be close to the target, while others feel that even excluding tariff impacts, the progress towards the 2% target remains slow [1] Group 3: Future Rate Cuts - In the September monetary policy meeting, nearly all voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee supported the 25 basis point rate cut, with only one member opposing the decision [1] - The majority of Federal Reserve officials expect at least two more rate cuts before the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos, to address seasonal cash demand and support government bond issuance [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Operations - On October 9, the PBOC conducted a 1.1 trillion yuan three-month reverse repo operation using a fixed quantity and multi-price bidding method [1]. - In October, there is a total of 1.3 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, with expectations for another six-month reverse repo operation to maintain net liquidity injection [1]. - The PBOC has been consistently increasing the scale of reverse repo operations for four consecutive months and has also increased the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) for seven months [2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Expectations - The PBOC's actions are influenced by seasonal cash demand due to the October holidays, leading to a significant liquidity gap [1]. - The PBOC aims to keep liquidity ample and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning social financing and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2]. - The recent monetary policy committee meeting emphasized the need for flexible and anticipatory policies in light of domestic demand shortages and ongoing global uncertainties, indicating room for further monetary policy adjustments [2].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation with a three-month term, indicating a continued net liquidity injection in October [1] - In October, there is an expected liquidity gap due to seasonal cash demand, with a total of 1.3 trillion yuan maturing [1] - The PBOC has been consistently using reverse repos to supplement medium to long-term funding gaps since last October, enhancing the timeliness of information disclosure regarding these operations [1] Group 2 - The PBOC's monetary policy tools, including MLF and reverse repos, have been actively used to maintain liquidity, with MLF seeing an increase for seven consecutive months [2] - The PBOC aims to keep liquidity ample and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2] - The recent monetary policy committee meeting emphasized the need for flexible and anticipatory policies in light of domestic demand shortages and ongoing external uncertainties [2]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 买断式前置投放，呵护思路延续 ——10 月流动性月报 一、9 月资金面回顾：季末短暂摩擦，中枢持稳 资金面回顾：9 月税期央行投放相对克制叠加北交所打新影响，资金价格出现 波动，DR007 短暂突破 1.6%，季末在 14D 逆回购及 MLF 加码投放的呵护下， 资金面整体平稳。 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 超储水平：不考虑逆回购的超储水平或依旧偏低。流动性总量方面，9 月基础 货币全月或增加 1.2 万亿元，其中政府存款对基础货币的补充或在 3000 亿附 近，央行净投放合计 1 万亿，外汇占款延续小幅回笼 700 亿元；此外，准备金 对于超储的冻结或在 2000 亿元附近，取现对超储的冻结或在 2554 亿附近，非 金融机构存款变化对超储的消耗或在 525 亿元附近，故月末超储或增加 7231 亿，超储率或在 1.55%左右，处于季节性水平，扣除逆回购之后的狭义超储水 平或在 0.6%附近，仍属于偏低水平。 证券分析师：宋琦 二、9 月货币政策追踪：14D 招标方式调整，三季度货政例会召开 202 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes indicate a majority support for a 25 basis point rate cut, with one dissenting vote advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points due to a softening labor market and core inflation nearing the 2% target [1][4] Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is showing a complex picture, with a noticeable slowdown in real GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Although the unemployment rate remains low at 4.3% as of August, job growth has been weak, with non-farm payroll additions significantly below expectations in July and August [2][3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a downward revision of over 900,000 jobs in the total employment figure for the 12 months ending March 2025 [2] Inflation and Market Expectations - As of August, the overall PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while core PCE increased by 2.9%, both at high levels for the year. Most participants believe that tariff increases are contributing to inflationary pressures, although some noted that the impact has weakened compared to earlier expectations [2][3] - Financial market expectations for policy direction have shifted significantly, with nearly all surveyed anticipating a 25 basis point cut at the meeting, and almost half expecting another cut in October [2] Monetary Market Conditions - There are signs of short-term tension in the money market, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) briefly rising above the minimum bid rate for the standing repo facility (SRF) due to a significant increase in the Treasury General Account balance [3] - The effective federal funds rate remains stable, but the minutes suggest that future money market rates may gradually exceed the management rate level [3] Labor Market Insights - The labor market shows a narrow range in the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals at 1.0, with wage growth slowing. Recent data indicates that job growth is concentrated in a few sectors, and the unemployment rate among sensitive groups, such as young Black individuals, is rising [3][4] Policy Outlook - The committee emphasizes that the current economic outlook is highly uncertain, with the risks to employment outweighing inflationary pressures. A modest rate cut is aimed at supporting the full employment goal while reflecting subtle changes in risk balance [4] - The committee unanimously agrees to continue the balance sheet reduction process, with expectations that the System Open Market Account (SOMA) will be slightly above $6 trillion by the end of March 2026 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8%, slightly exceeding expectations but still below the boom - bust line, while the non - manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 pct to 50.0%. The supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, putting pressure on enterprise profit restoration. Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a relatively low level. The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. The bond market priced the fundamentals further on the day the data was released, and it is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was slightly better than expected but below the boom - bust line, rising 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 49.6%), basically in line with seasonality. The non - manufacturing PMI dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 50.2%), remaining at a seasonal low. Among them, the service industry PMI dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%, and the construction industry PMI rose slightly by 0.2 pct to 49.3%, both weaker than seasonality [5]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Manufacturing Industry** - Manufacturing sentiment has moderately recovered, but the supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. In September, the manufacturing PMI improved more than expected, rising 0.4 pct to 49.8%. The production index rose 1.1 pct to 51.9%, reaching a new high since Q2 this year, while the new order index only increased 0.2 pct to 49.7%. The gap between the "production - new order" index widened to 2.2 pct, indicating that the supply recovery intensity may be greater than the demand improvement. Enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory has increased, but there are signs of inventory accumulation, and production may be "front - loaded" [7]. - There are differentiations in external and internal demand and price structure. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the price indicators have generally improved, but the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, which may still restrict enterprise profit restoration. In September, the purchase price index of major raw materials remained in the expansion range of 53.2%, while the ex - factory price index dropped to 48.2%, and the gap between the two widened to 5.0 pct. External demand remained resilient, with the new export order index rising to 47.8%, while domestic demand recovery was still relatively slow, with the new order index only increasing 0.2 pct to 49.7% [7]. - Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. In September, the PMI of large - scale enterprises reached 51.0%, remaining in the expansion range. Small - scale enterprises improved significantly, with the PMI rising 1.6 pct month - on - month, while the sentiment of medium - scale enterprises declined. In terms of industries, the PMI of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries remained in the high - sentiment range above 51%, with significant improvements in industries such as automobiles and railway, ship, and aerospace equipment. The PMI of the consumer goods industry also rose to 50.6% [7]. - **Non - manufacturing Industry** - Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a seasonal low. In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0%, and the service industry index dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%. The end of the summer vacation effect is an important factor, with the sentiment of consumer - related industries such as catering and cultural and entertainment significantly declining, while modern service industries such as finance and telecommunications maintained high sentiment. The business activity index of the construction industry rose slightly by 0.2 pct, but the absolute level of 49.3% was still below the boom - bust line, indicating that real estate and infrastructure investment may continue to be under pressure [7]. - **Bond Market Outlook** - The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. On the day the data was released, the bond market priced the fundamentals further, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond dropping 2 BP. A series of growth - stabilizing policies have been implemented recently, and the investment of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may support infrastructure investment. The expectation of optimizing real estate market regulation policies in many places has increased, but whether the economy will continue to improve in an environment of weak domestic demand and prices remains to be seen. It is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and overall reference view for TL2512 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The 9 - month manufacturing PMI continued to improve, but the price index was still weak, indicating potential concerns in the macro - demand side. Future monetary policy is still inclined to be loose, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has greatly decreased, and the rising risk preference in the stock market has suppressed the demand for treasury bonds. So, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of treasury bond futures are both limited, and they are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Section 1: Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts and the low short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Section 2: Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The improvement of the manufacturing PMI in September and the weak price index show macro - demand concerns. Future monetary policy support and short - term factors like the low possibility of interest rate cuts and stock - market influence lead to the expected low - level oscillation of treasury bond futures [5].

Market Overview - Markets are facing political turmoil in Japan and France, alongside a U.S. government shutdown, leading to decreased investor confidence and a flight to safety in assets like gold [1][10] - The Japanese yen has experienced significant volatility, recently falling to an eight-month low of 153 per dollar, with a decline of over 3% for the week, marking its worst performance since September 2024 [10][11] Currency Movements - The dollar has strengthened, rising more than 1% for the week, supported by the weakness of the yen and euro [6][11] - The euro has seen a slight recovery, trading 0.09% higher at $1.1639, but remains nearly 0.9% down for the week [6][11] - Other currencies, such as the British pound and Australian dollar, have also shown minor gains, with the pound at $1.3413 and the Australian dollar at $0.6594 [6][11] Japanese Political Context - The selection of Sanae Takaichi as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party may lead to increased spending and a continuation of loose monetary policy, potentially further weakening the yen [10][11] - The upcoming October Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting is anticipated to be a catalyst for further yen weakness if Takaichi maintains dovish fiscal and monetary views [4][10] U.S. Federal Reserve Outlook - Recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate caution regarding future interest rate cuts, with markets still pricing in two more cuts by year-end [8][11] - A prolonged U.S. government shutdown could delay important economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process for its October meeting [8][11] - Investors are currently pricing in approximately 44 basis points of easing by December 2023 [9][11]