Report Summary I. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given documents. II. Report Core Views The reports cover multiple futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, presenting the latest values, changes, historical quantiles of various spreads, prices, and related data, as well as some fundamental information and economic indicators. III. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Difference Data**: The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical quantiles, and full - historical quantiles of various price differences of IF, IH, IC, and IM, such as the spot - futures price difference, inter - period price difference, and cross - variety price ratio. For example, the IF spot - futures price difference is - 7.78, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 41.80% and a full - historical quantile of 40.00% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: It also provides the cross - variety ratios and their changes, such as the ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 50, which is 2.1447, with a change of - 0.0104, a 1 - year historical quantile of 54.90%, and a full - historical quantile of 38.30% [1]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis and Spread Data**: The report presents the IRR, latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and listing - since percentiles of various basis and spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL. For example, the TS basis on 2025 - 06 - 13 is 1.7719, with a change of - 0.0506 and a listing - since percentile of 33.90%. It also includes inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads [4]. 3. Precious Metal Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Price Data**: It shows the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals. For example, the AU2508 contract closed at 794.36 yuan/g on June 13, up 9.20 yuan or 1.17% from the previous day. The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.50, with a change of 1.30 and a 1 - year historical quantile of 12.40% [7]. 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot and Futures Price**: The report provides the spot quotes of Shanghai - Europe shipping rates, the settlement price index of container shipping, futures prices, and basis. For example, the SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on June 9 is 1622.81 points, up 370.0 points or 29.53% from June 2. The EC2508 (main contract) futures price on June 13 is 2068.0, up 83.3 or 4.20% from the previous day [11][12]. - **Fundamental Data**: It also includes the supply of container shipping capacity, foreign trade - related indicators, and overseas economic indicators. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply on June 16 is 3247.12 million TEU, with a 0.00% change from the previous day. The port on - time rate in Shanghai in May is 42.50%, up 46.45% from April [11]. 5. Trading Calendar - **Data and Events**: The report lists overseas and domestic data sources and economic indicators or financial events, including agricultural products, macro - data, iron ore, black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and other sectors [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 16, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of different commodities such as power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to help investors understand the market situation and potential arbitrage opportunities [1][5][14][23][40][47]. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Basis and Spread Data**: From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The basis chart shows the relationship between the spot price of China's Shengli crude oil and the closing price of the active contract of INE crude oil [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: The basis chart presents the relationship between the FOB Singapore fuel oil spot price and the closing price of the active contract of fuel oil [7]. - **Chemicals**: Data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, on June 13, 2025, the basis of natural rubber was 25 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2368 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed different values. For example, on June 13, the basis of rebar was 101.0 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore was 94.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for different delivery months and inter - variety spreads such as screw/ore, screw/coke, etc. are presented [15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The basis data of domestic copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from June 9 to June 13, 2025 are provided. For example, on June 13, the basis of copper was 1080 yuan/ton [24]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are given [30]. Agricultural Products - **Basis, Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are presented. For example, on June 13, 2025, the basis of soybean No.1 was - 161 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 367 yuan/ton [38][40]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Inter - period Spreads**: The basis and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures are provided. For example, on June 13, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 index futures was 7.78 [48].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the rapeseed meal industry [8] Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal is affected by factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory and the additional tariff on Canadian oil cake imports, leading to a short - term rise and then a fall. Along with the influence of soybean meal, its price will return to a range - bound oscillation in the short term [8] - The short - term supply - demand fundamentals of rapeseed meal enter a pattern of strong supply and demand in June, and the RM2509 contract may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [44] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Rapeseed meal's fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bearish; inventory is bullish; the price is bullish on the chart; the main position is bullish; it is expected to be range - bound in the short term [8] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market [10] - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cake, while the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [10] - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [10] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsets the decrease in Ukrainian production to some extent. Geopolitical conflicts support commodity prices [10] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cake, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [11] - Bearish factors include the upcoming listing of domestic rapeseed in June and uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [11] 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed import arrivals in June are lower than expected, and import costs are strongly oscillating [18] - Oil mill rapeseed inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed meal inventory has slightly declined [21] - Oil mill rapeseed crushing volume has slightly increased [23] - Aquatic fish prices are slightly fluctuating, while shrimp and shellfish prices are stable [31] - The rapeseed meal market is oscillating and rising, with spot prices firming up, and the spot discount remaining at a relatively high level [33] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continues to narrow, and the price difference of the 2509 contract remains oscillating [37] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8] 6. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rising, and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short and medium term. Future changes in China - Canada trade relations and the follow - up impact of the Sino - US tariff war will affect the market [42] - The KDJ indicator is oscillating near a high level, and the short - term market is strongly oscillating, but the upward space may be limited [42] - The MACD is oscillating and rising at a low level, but the red energy is narrowing, and the short - term market is strongly oscillating. The follow - up trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the influence of soybean meal [42] 7. Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrivals and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45] - The second - most important factors are domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory in domestic oil mills and downstream purchasing [46] - Other important factors include macro - factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [46]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年6月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格坚挺，矿山挺价，镍铁价格走弱，减产预期加强，倒逼 矿价的可能性更大，不锈钢交易所仓单持续流入现货，库存有所增加。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格13537.5，基差987.5，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：118383，-602，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、结论：不锈钢2508：震荡偏弱运行。 多空因素 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价偏弱运行，成交一般，下游刚需采购为主。产业链上，矿价继续坚挺，主要矿山 挺价，但镍铁价格继续下行，国内镍铁企业亏损程度进一步扩大，减产预期加强，倒逼矿价的可能性更 大。不锈钢交易所仓单继续流出， ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a slowdown in upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index retreating after reaching 3400 points, ultimately closing at 3377 points, down 0.25% for the week [1] - The main futures contracts IF and IC saw slight increases of 0.07% and 0.15% respectively, while IH and IM contracts decreased by 0.28% and 0.16% [1] - There was a significant increase in futures positions, with a total increase of 67,798 contracts across four varieties, bringing total positions to 896,308 contracts [1] Group 2 - All major futures contracts showed an increase in positions among the top 20 holders, indicating a bullish sentiment [2] - Specifically, the IF long positions increased by 20,933 contracts, while short positions rose by 17,456 contracts, resulting in a net short position decrease to 21,692 contracts [2] - The market showed a notable divergence in positions, with significant increases in long positions from various firms, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [2] Group 3 - Overall, the futures market exhibited relatively flat movements, but there was a substantial increase in main contract holdings, suggesting heightened trading activity [3] - The resurgence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is expected to increase short-term volatility in the futures market [3]

Report Summary 1. Core View - Treasury bond futures maintained a narrow - range oscillation last week with a slight upward movement throughout the week. The overall implementation of broad credit still needs time, while the trend of broad money remains unchanged. Although treasury bond futures have been oscillating higher recently, the overall trend in the future is still expected to be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to arbitrage strategies, as well as allocation and hedging needs [2]. 2. Section Summaries 2.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts oscillated upward this week. The TL contract had a relatively large increase due to fluctuations in the overall market's risk appetite, and the yield curve flattened again. In terms of basis characteristics, the basis trend was stable, and the IRR of the main contract was basically between 1.8 - 1.9, still higher than the funding rate but with reduced cost - effectiveness. Regarding the inter - delivery spread, the 09 - 12 combination rebounded slightly, reflecting a decline in market sentiment. Currently, market liquidity is limited and not suitable for operation. In terms of the curve structure, opportunities for the curve to steepen should be noted [3][5]. 2.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - No specific summarized content provided in the report. 2.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type: private funds increased by 2.15%; foreign capital increased by 2.86%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.67%. In terms of weekly changes: private funds increased by 1.4%; foreign capital decreased by 3.33%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 3.86% [9].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On June 12, the four major A-share stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3402.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11% to 10234.33 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.26% to 2067.15 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.3% to 977.97 points. Market turnover was 13,036 billion yuan, an increase of 169 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non-ferrous metals (+1.4%), media (+1.33%), and beauty care (+1.31%) led the gains, while household appliances (-1.77%), coal (-1.14%), and food and beverages (-1.13%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IH > IF, with the number of rising/flat/falling stocks being 2,325/224/2,864 respectively. Institutions, main players, large investors, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -5 billion, -87 billion, -18 billion, and 111 billion yuan respectively, with changes of 0, -43 billion, +34 billion, and +9 billion yuan [2]. - For the basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH, they were 132.42, 99.53, 50.6, and 45.28 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -19.8%, -15.89%, -12.04%, and -15.58%, and three-year historical quantiles of 4%, 6%, 2%, and 1% respectively. The futures-spot price difference remained at a relatively low level [2]. - On June 12, most yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two-year bond was 1.347, up 1.06 bps from the previous day; the five-year bond was 1.472, up 0.84 bps; the ten-year bond was 1.581, up 0.6 bps; and the thirty-year bond was 1.934, down 0.32 bps [3]. 2. Trading Strategies - For stock index futures, in the short term, due to the deep discount of small-cap stock indices, it is speculated to be the result of the scale expansion of neutral products since this year. With the bond bull market not restarted yet, the proportion of short positions in neutral strategies may still be high, so the deep discount may continue, leading to market fluctuations. A short-cycle band strategy is recommended. In the medium to long term, the view of being bullish on the economy is maintained. Buying IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips is recommended. For near-month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro-cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [3]. - For treasury bond futures, the current spot bonds show a characteristic of strong supply and weak demand, but this pattern is expected to change. Firstly, the maturity scale of government bonds in June has increased, and the net supply rhythm of government bonds may flatten. Secondly, there is a possibility of a reduction in the long-term liability cost of insurance in July. Thirdly, the domestic market risk preference has returned to a defensive style, and the allocation demand for the bond market may increase. In the futures market, the price of the CTD bond of near-month contracts is low, and combined with the relatively high IRR level recently, the short-side delivery willingness is strong, putting pressure on the price of near-month contracts and leading to a premium in far-month contracts. The positions of T and TL have increased, while those of TF and TS have decreased, indicating strong long-side strength at the long end, possibly betting on a further decline in future policy interest rates. A strategy of short-term long and long-term short is recommended, buying T and TL on dips in the short term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long term [5]. 3. Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the recent import and export sentiment has rebounded [13].

1. Report Date - The report is dated June 13, 2025 [4] 2. Data Sources - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Research Institute of GF Futures [5] 3. Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: The basis is 262, the basis rate is 5.07%, and the historical quantile is 87.10%. The spot price is 5428, and the futures price is 5166 [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: The basis is 244, the basis rate is 4.50%, and the historical quantile is 62.80%. The spot price is 5670, and the futures price is 5426 [1] - **Rebar (RB2510)**: The basis is 122, the basis rate is 4.11%, and the historical quantile is 55.70%. The spot price is 3090, and the futures price is 2968 [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: The basis is 100, the basis rate is 3.25%, and the historical quantile is 56.30%. The spot price is 3180, and the futures price is 3080 [1] - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: The basis is 29, the basis rate is 7.79%, and the historical quantile is 45.10%. The spot price is 759, and the futures price is 704 [1] - **Coke (J2509)**: The basis is 28, the basis rate is 2.16%, and the historical quantile is 60.09%. The spot price is 1357, and the futures price is 1329 [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: The basis is 61, the basis rate is 8.02%, and the historical quantile is 38.00%. The spot price is 828, and the futures price is 767 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2507)**: The basis is 465, the basis rate is 0.59%, and the historical quantile is 81.45%. The spot price is 78610, and the futures price is 79075 [1] - **Aluminum (AL2507)**: The basis is 255, the basis rate is 1.25%, and the historical quantile is 92.29%. The spot price is 20395, and the futures price is 20650 [1] - **Alumina (AO2509)**: The basis is 365, the basis rate is 12.61%, and the historical quantile is 89.42%. The spot price is 3260, and the futures price is 2895 [1] - **Zinc (ZN2507)**: The basis is 155, the basis rate is 0.70%, and the historical quantile is 69.37%. The spot price is 22240, and the futures price is 22085 [1] - **Tin (SN2507)**: The basis is 150, the basis rate is 0.06%, and the historical quantile is 51.45%. The spot price is 265300, and the futures price is 265150 [1] - **Nickel (NI2507)**: The basis is 1000, the basis rate is 0.83%, and the historical quantile is 82.29%. The spot price is 121000, and the futures price is 120000 [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2508)**: The basis is 385, the basis rate is 3.06%, and the historical quantile is 78.75%. The spot price is 12970, and the futures price is 12585 [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2507)**: The basis is 210, the basis rate is 0.35%, and the historical quantile is 49.55%. The spot price is 60650, and the futures price is 60440 [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2507)**: The basis is - 695, the basis rate is - 9.32%, and the historical quantile is 48.48%. The spot price is 7455, and the futures price is 8150 [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2508)**: The basis is - 4.8, the basis rate is - 0.61%, and the historical quantile is 5.00%. The spot price is 785.2, and the futures price is 780.4 [1] - **Silver (AG2508)**: The basis is - 49, the basis rate is - 0.56%, and the historical quantile is 6.10%. The spot price is 8819, and the futures price is 8770 [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: The basis is - 219, the basis rate is - 7.18%, and the historical quantile is 0.10%. The spot price is 2830, and the futures price is 3049 [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: The basis is 182, the basis rate is 2.37%, and the historical quantile is 23.70%. The spot price is 7870, and the futures price is 7688 [1] - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: The basis is 330, the basis rate is 4.12%, and the historical quantile is 64.10%. The spot price is 8340, and the futures price is 8010 [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: The basis is - 134, the basis rate is - 5.01%, and the historical quantile is 10.30%. The spot price is 2540, and the futures price is 2674 [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (O1509)**: The basis is 172, the basis rate is 1.87%, and the historical quantile is 56.40%. The spot price is 9350, and the futures price is 9178 [1] - **Corn (C2507)**: The basis is 18, the basis rate is 0.76%, and the historical quantile is 57.20%. The spot price is 2390, and the futures price is 2372 [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2507)**: The basis is - 10, the basis rate is - 0.37%, and the historical quantile is 9.60%. The spot price is 2710, and the futures price is 2700 [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2509)**: The basis is 300, the basis rate is 2.18%, and the historical quantile is 49.10%. The spot price is 14050, and the futures price is 13750 [1] - **Eggs (JD2508)**: The basis is - 959, the basis rate is - 27.49%, and the historical quantile is 0.10%. The spot price is 2530, and the futures price is 3489 [1] - **Cotton (CF509)**: The basis is 1272, the basis rate is 9.41%, and the historical quantile is 88.30%. The spot price is 14792, and the futures price is 13520 [1] - **Sugar (SR509)**: The basis is 483, the basis rate is 8.55%, and the historical quantile is 85.70%. The spot price is 6130, and the futures price is 5647 [1] - **Apples (AP510)**: The basis is 1024, the basis rate is 13.52%, and the historical quantile is 72.50%. The spot price is 8600, and the futures price is 7576 [1] - **Red Dates (CJ509)**: The basis is - 615, the basis rate is - 6.90%, and the historical quantile is 68.90%. The spot price is 8915, and the futures price is 8300 [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: The basis is 172.7, the basis rate is 2.64%, and the historical quantile is 77.80%. The spot price is 6708.7, and the futures price is 6536 [1] - **PTA (TA509)**: The basis is 230, the basis rate is 4.98%, and the historical quantile is 83.40%. The spot price is 4850, and the futures price is 4620 [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: The basis is 136, the basis rate is 3.21%, and the historical quantile is 92.80%. The spot price is 4370, and the futures price is 4234 [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF507)**: The basis is 148, the basis rate is 2.33%, and the historical quantile is 78.30%. The spot price is 6510, and the futures price is 6362 [1] - **Styrene (EB2507)**: The basis is 407, the basis rate is 5.54%, and the historical quantile is 84.80%. The spot price is 7760, and the futures price is 7353 [1] - **Methanol (MA509)**: The basis is 92, the basis rate is 4.02%, and the historical quantile is 74.20%. The spot price is 2382, and the futures price is 2290 [1] - **Urea (UR509)**: The basis is 94, the basis rate is 5.71%, and the historical quantile is 40.60%. The spot price is 1740, and the futures price is 1646 [1] - **LLDPE (L2509)**: The basis is 58, the basis rate is 0.81%, and the historical quantile is 34.20%. The spot price is 7175, and the futures price is 7117 [1] - **PP (PP2509)**: The basis is 161, the basis rate is 2.31%, and the historical quantile is 62.20%. The spot price is 7130, and the futures price is 6969 [1] - **PVC (V2509)**: The basis is - 106, the basis rate is - 2.20%, and the historical quantile is 51.60%. The spot price is 4826, and the futures price is 4720 [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH209)**: The basis is 417.8, the basis rate is 18.16%, and the historical quantile is 87.50%. The spot price is 2718.8, and the futures price is 2301 [1] - **LPG (PG2507)**: The basis is 457, the basis rate is 11.04%, and the historical quantile is 63.60%. The spot price is 4598, and the futures price is 4141 [1] - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: The basis is 193, the basis rate is 5.47%, and the historical quantile is 82.90%. The spot price is 3720, and the futures price is 3527 [1] - **BR (BR2507)**: The basis is 565, the basis rate is 5.12%, and the historical quantile is 82.40%. The spot price is 11600, and the futures price is 11035 [1] - **Glass (FG509)**: The basis is 981, the basis rate is 4.94%, and the historical quantile is 80.67%. The spot price is 1032, and the futures price is 981 [1] - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: The basis is 45, the basis rate is 3.69%, and the historical quantile is 44.74%. The spot price is 1220, and the futures price is 1175 [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: The basis is 265, the basis rate is 1.91%, and the historical quantile is 99.58%. The spot price is 13850, and the futures price is 13585 [1] Financial Futures - **CSI 300 Index Futures (IF2506)**: The basis is - 8.6, the basis rate is - 0.22%, and the historical quantile is 38.10%. The spot price is 3892.2, and the futures price is 3883.6 [1] - **SSE 50 Index Futures (IH2506)**: The basis is - 9.1, the basis rate is - 0.34%, and the historical quantile is 24.60%. The spot price is 2691.3, and the futures price is 2682.2 [1] - **CSI 500 Index Futures (IC2506)**: The basis is - 19.9, the basis rate is - 0.34%, and the historical quantile is 53.90%. The spot price is 5799.9, and the futures price is 5780 [1] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM2506)**: The basis is - 35.4, the basis rate is - 0.58%, and the historical quantile is 36.80%. The spot price is 6192.2, and the futures price is 6156.8 [1] - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TS2509)**: The basis is - 0.06, the basis rate is - 0.06%, and the historical quantile is 12.30%. The spot price is 102.44, and the futures price is 100.29 [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TF2509)**: The basis is - 0.01, the basis rate is - 0.01%, and the historical quantile is 25.50%. The spot price is 101.05, and the futures price is 106.14 [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (T2509)**: The basis is 0.21, the basis rate is 0.19%, and the historical quantile is 42.00%. The spot price is 109, and the futures price is 107.64 [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TL2509)**: The basis is 0.4, the basis rate is 0.33%, and the historical quantile is 57.10%. The spot price is 136.28, and the futures price is 120.47 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread declined, the 380-month spread dropped, and the basis strengthened. The low-sulfur crack spread weakened in a volatile manner, the near-term monthly spread slightly weakened, and the basis weakened. This week, inventories continued to accumulate at onshore locations in Singapore and at ARA ports, while US residual oil saw a slight de-stocking. Recently, the low-sulfur valuation has shown that there is room for downward correction in the crack spread and inter-month spreads after supply resumes. The high-sulfur crack spread has started to loosen, and the offshore market remains highly competitive. This year, in China, due to the impact of consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments, the feedstock demand of fuel oil refineries has declined significantly. In terms of marine fuel, the global high-sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year-on-year, while Singapore remained basically flat, and the total marine fuel was weaker year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued. High-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak season. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for the high-sulfur crack spread to decline in the medium term. With high domestic production schedules, a short position should be maintained for LU both domestically and overseas [3][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 6th to June 12th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 397.07 to 417.96, a change of 8.45; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 449.58 to 468.13, a change of 6.68; the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased from -2.98 to -2.76, a change of 0.22; the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 603.22 to 625.97, a change of 9.33; the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from -153.64 to -157.84, a change of -2.65; the LGO - Brent M1 increased from 16.55 to 16.61, a change of 1.58; the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased from 52.51 to 50.17, a change of -1.77 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 6th to June 12th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 408.87 to 429.92, a change of 14.67; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 415.78 to 437.61, a change of 15.36; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 479.19 to 499.41, a change of 11.22; the Singapore Gasoil M1 increased from 80.13 to 83.98, a change of 2.17; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased from -0.09 to -0.39, a change of 0.49; the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from -113.77 to -122.04, a change of -4.84 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From June 6th to June 12th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from 430.80 to 448.16, a change of 12.61; the FOB VLSFO price increased from 489.76 to 511.48, a change of 12.06; the 380 basis decreased from 10.65 to 10.25, a change of -2.70; the high-sulfur domestic - overseas price difference decreased from 8.8 to 6.2, a change of -0.6; the low-sulfur domestic - overseas price difference decreased from 16.5 to 17.1, a change of -0.5 [2] Domestic FU Data - From June 6th to June 12th, 2025, the FU 01 price increased from 2717 to 2852, a change of 72; the FU 05 price increased from 2675 to 2798, a change of 71; the FU 09 price increased from 2858 to 2997, a change of 85; the FU 01 - 05 increased from - to 54, a change of 1; the FU 05 - 09 decreased from -183 to -199, a change of -14; the FU 09 - 01 increased from 141 to 145, a change of 13 [2] Domestic LU Data - From June 6th to June 12th, 2025, the LU 01 price increased from 3378 to 3496, a change of 82; the LU 05 price increased from 3312 to 3461, a change of 113; the LU 09 price increased from 3479 to 3609, a change of 85; the LU 01 - 05 decreased from 66 to 35, a change of -31; the LU 05 - 09 decreased from -167 to -148, a change of 28; the LU 09 - 01 increased from 101 to 113, a change of 3 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current Sino - US talks results lack detailed reports, causing the market to fluctuate with unconfirmed news. Fundamentally, the traditional off - season has arrived, leading to a weakening of some steel demand. However, steel mills maintain production through variety switching due to decent orders and profits. The raw material supply remains abundant, so the fundamental drive for a market rebound is weak. Market macro - sentiment fluctuations may cause the market to oscillate, and the pressure of a weakening off - season fundamental situation is gradually emerging [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for rebar is 2800 - 3100 with a current volatility of 11.25% and a volatility percentile of 14.0%. For hot - rolled coils, it is 2900 - 3200 with a current volatility of 11.37% and a volatility percentile of 9.74% [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **High finished - product inventory**: To prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory. For example, sell RB2510 with a 40% hedging ratio at 3000 - 3100 and HC2510 with a 40% ratio at 3120 - 3200. Also, sell call options like RB2510C3200 with a 50% ratio at 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [1]. - **Low procurement inventory**: To avoid rising procurement costs, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures. For instance, buy RB2510 with a 20% ratio at 2850 - 2920 and 2950 - 3030. Sell put options such as RB2510P2700 with a 20% ratio at 30 - 40 to reduce procurement costs [1]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - **Positive factors**: Total steel inventory is not high, and there are no obvious signs of a significant reduction in hot metal production [3]. - **Negative factors**: The recent rebar delivery volume in Hangzhou has decreased significantly; hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory in many places; steel mills plan a fourth round of coke price cuts; iron ore shipments have increased in the past two weeks; and coal mine inventories remain high [4][5]. 3.4 Price Data - **Futures prices**: On June 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts showed little daily change but some weekly changes. For example, the rebar 10 - contract closing price was 2968, unchanged daily but down 7 weekly [5]. - **Spot prices**: On June 12, 2025, the rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions had various daily and weekly changes. For example, the Shanghai rebar summary price was 3090, down 20 daily and 10 weekly [5]. 3.5 Other Data - **Hot - rolled coil overseas data**: The FOB export prices and CFR import prices of hot - rolled coils in different countries had different weekly changes on June 12, 2025. For example, the Japanese FOB export price dropped from 510 to 495 [6]. - **Basis data**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils in Shanghai showed certain daily and weekly changes on June 12, 2025. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 128, up 3 daily and down 21 weekly [6]. - **Spread data**: The month - spreads, roll - rebar spreads, rebar - iron ore ratios, and rebar - coke ratios of rebar and hot - rolled coils had different changes on June 13, 2025. For example, the 01 roll - rebar spread was 117, down 7 weekly [7][8][9].