20251016申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2606 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2606 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 969.60 | 962.08 | 12201.00 | 12138.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 967.74 | 960.34 | 12030.00 | 11966.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | 1.86 | 1.74 | 171.00 | 172.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.19% | 0.18% | 1.42% | 1.44% | | | 场 | | | | | | | | | 持仓量 | 22325 | 230686 | 19602 | 477807 | | | | 成交量 | 6880 | 420246 | 31945 | 2033514 | | | ...

【华通白银网10月10日讯】周四，白银价格跳涨至51美元/盎司上方的历史新高，对所有主要货币都创下新纪录，因为伦敦市场借入白银 的租赁利率几乎增加了两倍，达到前所未有的新高，之后又抹去了这一涨幅。 目前，白银的净需求约有50%来自工业和其他生产用途，1980年1月21日和2011年4月28日，白银曾一度触及50美元/盎司，但两次都出现 了大幅下跌。 但以英镑、人民币、日元和许多其他货币计算，白银价格已经超过了2025年的高点。9月份，伦敦市场以美元计算的白银月平均价格创下 了历史新高。 在特朗普今年年初重返白宫之际，需求上升和全球白银供应短缺导致伦敦开始谈论"白银轧空"。 作为全球批发交易和存储中心的伦敦，借入白银的1个月租赁利率今天较昨日已经处于历史高位的水平增长了近两倍，达到每年19%以 上，反映出市场对白银的争夺。 （伦敦午盘银价基准与1个月租赁费率（每年%）图表） "白银轧空开始了。这很严重，"日本金银市场协会现任会长、前东京贵金属银行主管Bruce Ikemizu表示。 在伦敦，银价周四中午12点定在49.64美元/盎司左右，比1980年1月18日高出近20美分。 与此同时，金价在50美元/盎司区间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the silver market and the impact of U.S. political developments on commodity prices, particularly silver and gold, amid rising government shutdown risks and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 97.74, while spot silver opened at $43.06 per ounce and is currently around $43.13 per ounce. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 10,193 yuan per kilogram, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 10,250 yuan per kilogram [1]. - Last Friday, the dollar index rose by 0.30% to close at 97.66, while spot silver increased by 3.05% to close at $43.07 per ounce. This surge was attributed to the failure of the Republican funding bill, raising the risk of a government shutdown [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Milan, indicated that further interest rate cuts are likely in the coming months, with a focus on addressing rising unemployment risks. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggested that two more rate cuts this year would be appropriate if the labor market weakens more than expected [3]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened last week at $42.17, experienced a low of $41.10, and reached a high of $43.095 before closing at $43.049. The market showed a long lower shadow hammer candlestick pattern, suggesting potential bullish sentiment [5]. - Current trading strategies include holding long positions with stop-loss orders set at $42.4, targeting levels of $43.1, $43.3, and $43.5 [5]. ETF Holdings - The SLV silver ETF holds 15,205.14 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [2].

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.25, while spot silver opened at $38.56/oz and is currently around $38.72/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9338 yuan/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is at 9366 yuan/kg [1] - On August 25, the dollar index rose by 0.73% to close at 98.43, while spot silver fell by 0.69% to $38.55/oz. This decline in silver is attributed to a decrease in optimistic sentiment regarding interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the dollar index [1] Economic Data - The latest data shows that SLV silver ETF holdings remain unchanged at 15,288.82 tons [2] - Economic indicators released include a 0.6% month-over-month decline in new home sales for July, which was below the expected 0.5% increase. Additionally, the Dallas Fed's business activity index for August came in at -1.8, lower than the expected 0.9, raising concerns about the health of the US economy [3] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened at $38.87, reached a high of $38.991, and then experienced a strong pullback, with a low of $38.524. The daily close was at $38.543, forming a long upper shadow on a bearish candlestick. Following a reduction in long positions from $37.8, the strategy is to hold positions at $38, with targets set at $38.5, $38.35, and $38.2 for potential exits [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is reacting to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, influenced by recent comments from Powell, which have led to increased trading activity in precious metals like silver and gold [3]. Group 1: Market Data - The current trading price of silver is approximately $38.90 per ounce, with T+D silver trading around 9345 yuan per kilogram [1]. - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 11.3 tons to a total of 15,288.82 tons [2]. - Last week, silver opened at $37.937, reached a high of $39.058, and closed at $38.895, indicating a strong bullish trend [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Dallas Fed's business activity index for August is a key focus for the market today [1]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 84.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a cumulative 50 basis point cut having a 44.1% probability [3]. Group 3: Global Trade and Policy - President Trump announced tariffs on furniture imported from other countries, while Canadian Prime Minister Carney stated that retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods under the USMCA will be lifted, effective September 1 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the silver market are influenced by the U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions, with a notable increase in silver prices following the release of moderate inflation data [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 98.02, while spot silver opened at $37.88/oz and is currently around $37.98/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9188 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 9215 CNY/kg [1]. - On August 12, the dollar index fell by 0.43% to close at 98.07, while spot silver rose by 0.81% to $37.91/oz. This increase is attributed to the moderate rise in U.S. inflation for July, which supports the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1]. ETF Holdings - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased to 15099.56 tons, up by 40.96 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. July CPI year-on-year remained stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to a five-month high of 3.1%. Following this data, traders increased their bets on a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin noted potential pressures on inflation and unemployment, while Kansas Fed President George stated that tariffs have limited impact on inflation, suggesting a reason to maintain current policy rather than pursue rate cuts [3]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened at $37.59, experienced a dip to a low of $37.486, and then saw a strong rally, reaching a high of $38.015 before closing at $37.9. The market is expected to target levels of $38.1, $38.3, and $38.5 with a stop loss at $37.5 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The current market conditions indicate fluctuations in precious metals, particularly silver, with a focus on the impact of U.S. economic data and geopolitical events on prices and investor sentiment [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 98.23, while spot silver opened at $38.34/oz and is currently around $38.04/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9179 yuan/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is at 9214 yuan/kg [1]. - Last week, the dollar index rose by 0.18% to close at 98.27, while spot silver increased by 0.09% to $38.33/oz. The rise in silver prices was attributed to higher U.S. Treasury yields, with spot gold fluctuating around the $3400 mark [1]. ETF Holdings - The SLV silver ETF holdings stand at 14,990.8 tons, reflecting a decrease of 121.48 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman highlighted a significant downward revision in recent employment growth data, suggesting a strong case for interest rate cuts. She anticipates supporting rate cuts in the remaining three Fed meetings of the year due to signs of economic slowdown and weakened labor market vitality [3]. Geopolitical Events - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel has no choice but to defeat Hamas, with military actions focusing on two locations still under Hamas control. This has drawn criticism from European members of the UN Security Council [3]. - Former President Trump and President Putin are scheduled to meet on August 15 in Alaska, discussing the Ukraine peace agreement, which involves territorial exchanges. Ukrainian President Zelensky has rejected any territorial concessions [3]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened last week at $37.02, experienced a low of $36.633, and then saw a strong upward movement, reaching a high of $38.509 before closing at $38.312. The market is expected to continue a bullish trend, with targets set at $38.51, $38.8, and $39-39.5 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - With recent progress in trade negotiations, the US dollar index has strengthened, leading to a continuous decline in gold prices. Amid the overall rise and fall of commodities, silver has also corrected. Before the new tariff deadline, there has been a peak in negotiations. After the US reached a trade agreement with Japan and a 15% tariff agreement with the EU (lower than previous expectations), risk aversion has cooled. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates, but the expectation of a July rate cut remains low, and the market is focusing on whether there will be a rate cut in September. The rebound of US CPI has further cooled the short - term rate cut expectation, and the market is watching this week's non - farm payrolls performance. Although US economic data shows that the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China has been continuously increasing its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the high price makes upward movement hesitant. Overall, gold and silver are likely to continue to show a volatile performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 770.68 and 772.84 respectively, with price drops of - 4.10 and - 4.16, and declines of - 0.53% and - 0.54%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9201.00 and 9218.00 respectively, with price drops of - 11.00 and - 16.00, and declines of - 0.12% and - 0.17%. [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 209675 and 112653 respectively, and the trading volumes are 256019 and 31873 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 398421 and 210928 respectively, and the trading volumes are 1203307 and 160014 respectively. [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 0.90 and - 1.26 respectively, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 15.00 and - 32.00 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 771.58 and 764.91 respectively, with price drops of - 2.03 and - 3.94, and declines of - 0.26% and - 0.51%. The previous closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3314.18, with a price drop of - 22.04 and a decline of - 0.66%. The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 9186.00, with a price drop of - 186.00 and a decline of - 1.98%. The previous closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 38.15, with a price increase of 0.02 and an increase of 0.04%. [2] - **Differences and Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510 and沪银2512 - 沪银2510 are 2.16 and 17 respectively. The spot gold - to - silver ratio is 84.00. The ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver are 7.24 and 7.49 respectively. [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and COMEX gold remain unchanged at 30,258 kilograms and 38,034,038 respectively. The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver and COMEX silver have increased by 21,015.00 kilograms and 1375881 respectively. [2] Related Variables - **Index and Yield Changes**: The current values of the US dollar index, Standard & Poor's Index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 98.6694, 6389.77, 4.42, 69.6, and 7.1835 respectively, with increases of 1.02%, 0.02%, 0.45%, 0.01%, and 0.21% respectively compared to the previous values. [2] Derivatives - **Position Changes**: The positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF have increased by 1.00 tons. The net positions of CFTC speculators in silver have increased by 481, while those in gold have decreased by 1451. [2] Market News - **Trade Negotiations**: On July 28 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, aiming to translate the important consensus of the two heads of state into specific policies and actions, implement the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks and the London framework, and promote the healthy development of China - US economic and trade relations. [3] - **Trump's Statements**: Trump may impose a unified tariff of 15% - 20% on imported goods from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the US. He is also disappointed with Putin and is shortening the 50 - day deadline for Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement. If no agreement is reached, the US will implement "secondary sanctions". [3] - **US Treasury Borrowing**: The US Treasury has significantly raised its estimate of federal borrowing for this quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling. It now expects the net borrowing from July to September to be $1.01 trillion, up from the April forecast of $554 billion. [3] - **European Central Bank**: European Central Bank hawkish official Kazimir said that the ECB is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again. Unless there is a major unexpected economic turn, the reason for action in September is not sufficient. [3]

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 97.51, while spot silver opened at $38.04/oz and is currently around $38.28/oz. Silver T+D is trading at approximately 9181 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 9209 CNY/kg [1] - Last Friday, the US dollar index rose by 0.19% to close at 97.67, while spot silver fell by 2.26% to $38.14/oz. The decline in silver was attributed to progress in US-EU trade negotiations, which reduced safe-haven demand [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to a total of 15,230.43 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On July 25, the compensation fee payment direction for Ag (T+D) was in favor of longs [2] Trade Agreements and Tariffs - President Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, which includes a 15% tariff, $600 billion in US investments, and zero tariffs from EU countries on US goods. However, there is ambiguity regarding whether the 15% tariff covers pharmaceuticals and steel/aluminum [3] - The US Commerce Secretary stated that the deadline for tariff increases on August 1 will not be extended, and a decision on chip tariffs will be made within two weeks [4] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened last week at $38.108, experienced a slight pullback to $38.061, and then surged to a weekly high of $39.523 before retreating. The weekly low was $37.923, and it closed at $38.163, forming a long upper shadow shooting star pattern, indicating potential bearish sentiment for the upcoming week [5] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the UK CBI retail sales balance at 18:00, the OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee meeting at 20:00, and the US Dallas Fed business activity index at 22:30 [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.26, while spot gold opened at $3430.30 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $3439.01 per ounce [1] - The previous trading day saw the US dollar index rise by 0.28% to 98.14, and spot gold increased by 1.38% to $3431.99 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals experienced declines, with spot silver down 0.12% to $36.29 per ounce, platinum down 5.25% to $1228.33 per ounce, and palladium down 3.18% to $1028.20 per ounce [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - As of June 13, COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged at 1175.39 tons, while COMEX silver inventory increased by 8.07 tons to 15503.85 tons [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 940.49 tons, whereas SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 53.72 tons to 14675.36 tons [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Events - Israel and Iran engaged in mutual attacks over the weekend, resulting in multiple casualties [4] - Israeli authorities reported at least 10 fatalities, including children, while Iran claimed that at least 138 people have died in Israeli attacks since last Friday, with a significant number being children [5] - Reports indicate that at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists were killed in the Israeli strikes [6]