免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资， 责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可， 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 贵金属期货日报 | | | | | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 期货市场 | 979.720 | 8.3↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 15512 | +846.00↑ | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | | 197,105.00 | +899.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 18,292.00 | +938.00↑ | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | | 275,889 ...

贵金属期货日报 2025/12/15 | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 970.660 12.5↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | 14793 | | -99.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 203,038.00 -836.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | | 7,206.00 | | -196.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 439,719.00 +147983.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | | 2,357,087.00 | | +630503.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 91302 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | | 820,921 | | 36893↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 0.00 0.00↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | | 14,638.00 | | -83.00↓ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -970.66 -96 ...

摘要北京时间周五(12月12日)亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.341附近，现货黄金开盘于4277.76美元/盎 司，目前交投于4216.29美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于963.50元/克附近，沪金主力交投于968.84元/克附 近。 北京时间周五(12月12日)亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.341附近，现货黄金开盘于4277.76美元/盎司，目 前交投于4216.29美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于963.50元/克附近，沪金主力交投于968.84元/克附近。 上一交易日美元指数收跌0.29%，报98.357，现货黄金收涨1.22%，报4205.38美元/盎司。在现货黄金下 跌之际，其他贵金属涨跌不一：现货白银收涨2.84%，报63.54美元/盎司；现货铂金收涨2.30%，报 1693.40美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨1.08%，至1492.50美元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 12月11日COMEX黄金库存1123.32吨，较前一交易日增加0.18吨；COMEX白银库存14177.51吨，较前一 交易日减少18.65吨。 12月11日SPDR黄金ETF持仓1050.83吨，较前一个交易日增加4.01吨；SLV ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut has significantly increased, and the precious metals market has maintained a strong performance. The "short squeeze" in the silver market has intensified, driving the recent accelerated rise in silver prices. The slowdown in the US core PPI growth rate and the cooling of the employment market have boosted market sentiment. Although geopolitical risks have eased to some extent, the mainstream market expectation of a rate cut in December is likely to continue to boost market bullish sentiment. The tight inventory of physical silver may exacerbate the short - squeeze in the short term. Any macro data or news falling short of expectations may amplify the callback risk in the precious metals market. In the long - term, the US debt pressure makes gold an attractive asset, and central bank gold purchases provide structural support for gold prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 963.28 yuan/gram, up 9.4 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 13,278 yuan/kilogram, up 551 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 342,979 lots, up 153,266 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 2,703,384 lots, up 1,072,037 lots. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 205,325 lots, up 3,196 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 38,724 lots, down 8,486 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 90,873 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 573,702 kilograms, up 14,820 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 958.46 yuan/gram, up 10.31 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 13,303 yuan, up 685 yuan [2] 3.3 ETF and CFTC Data - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,045.43 tons, unchanged; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,610.54 tons, up 28.21 tons. The non - commercial net long position of gold in CFTC was 203,916 contracts; the non - commercial net long position of silver in CFTC was 43,181 contracts, down 3,036 contracts [2] 3.4 Supply and Demand - The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2] 3.5 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.44, down 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.79%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 16.35, down 0.86; the CBOE gold volatility index was 22.87, up 0.92. The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price was 1.63, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 77.74, down 0.05 [2] 3.6 Industry News - US Secretary of State Rubio said the US - Ukraine talks were "productive". White House official Kevin Hassett hinted that Trump might name the next Fed chair by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs said the Fed would cut interest rates at the December 9 - 10 meeting, with a market - priced probability of about 85% - 86% for a 25 - basis - point cut. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December was 87.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by January next year was 67.5% [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - US November ISM Manufacturing PMI on December 1st, US JOLTS job openings data on December 2nd, US ADP private sector employment data on December 3rd, and US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2]

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 99.466, while spot silver opened at $53.31/oz and is currently around $53.16/oz. Silver T+D is trading at approximately 12,396 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 12,430 CNY/kg [1] - On November 26, the US dollar index fell by 0.24% to close at 99.569. Spot silver rose by 3.60% to $53.31/oz, driven by increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the upcoming meeting. Spot gold also reached a one-week high, rising by 0.79% to $4,162.35/oz, while platinum and palladium prices increased by 2.18% and 2.59%, respectively [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings remain unchanged at 15,582.33 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On November 26, the direction of the deferred compensation payment for Ag (T+D) was from short to long [2] Economic Indicators - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were recorded at 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the revised previous value of 222,000, marking the lowest level since April 12, 2025 [3] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that US economic activity has remained stable in recent weeks, with overall consumer spending declining further, except for high-end consumers. The employment market has shown slight weakness, while price levels continue to rise moderately [3] Silver Price Analysis - The silver market opened at 51.422, experienced a pullback to 51.264, and then saw a strong upward trend, reaching a daily high of 53.385 before closing at 53.33. This bullish pattern suggests continued demand for upward movement, with support levels at 37.8 and 38.8, and targets set at 53.3, 53.7, and 54-54.2 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold continues to strengthen, with international gold prices surpassing $4,200 per ounce. The Fed Chair hinted at a pause in balance - sheet reduction, trade - war concerns are intensifying, and bets on two interest rate cuts this year are growing stronger. The U.S. government shutdown is ongoing, and the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt situation are deteriorating. Against this backdrop, central banks are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven and value - storing asset is rising. However, after a rapid rise, there are accumulated profitable positions, so be aware of possible adjustments and increased volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Market**: - For gold futures, the prices of沪金2606 and沪金2512 are 969.60 and 962.08 respectively, with daily increases of 1.86 and 1.74, and increases of 0.19% and 0.18%. Their trading volumes are 6,880 and 420,246, and open interests are 22,325 and 230,686. - For silver futures, the prices of沪银2606 and沪银2512 are 12,201.00 and 12,138.00 respectively, with daily increases of 171.00 and 172.00, and increases of 1.42% and 1.44%. Their trading volumes are 31,945 and 2,033,514, and open interests are 19,602 and 477,807 [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The price of Shanghai Gold T + D has increased by 18.55 to 958.5, with a rise of 1.97%. London gold (in dollars per ounce) has increased by 13.55 to 964.00, with a rise of 1.43%. - The price of Shanghai Silver T + D has increased by 431.00 to 11,961.00, with a rise of 3.74%. London silver (in dollars per ounce) has increased by 1.64 to 53.05, with a rise of 3.19% [2]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold has increased by 2,916.00 kilograms to 75,099 kilograms. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver has decreased by 32,643.00 kilograms to 1,030,429 kilograms. - COMEX gold inventory has decreased by 375,461.09 to 39,285,219, and COMEX silver inventory has decreased by 2,921,026 to 512,711,524 [2]. - **Related Derivatives and Indexes**: - The dollar index has decreased by 0.38% to 98.6659, the S&P index has increased by 0.40% to 6,671.06, the U.S. Treasury yield has increased by 0.50% to 4.05, and Brent crude oil has increased by 0.01% to 62.47. The U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan has decreased by 0.14% to 7.1301. - The spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF holdings have both increased by 1.00 tons to 44,315 tons. The CFTC speculator net long position in silver has increased by 486 to 33,486, while that in gold has decreased by 1,451 to 32,895 [2]. Macro News - The U.S. side said that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the U.S. to correct its wrong actions and resolve issues through dialogue. China opposes the EU's forced technology - transfer practices. - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity has changed little recently, with a slight decline in overall consumer spending and stable employment levels. - The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill. The U.S. government may cut over 10,000 federal government jobs during the shutdown. The U.S. Treasury Secretary plans to submit Fed leadership candidates to Trump after Thanksgiving [3]. Fed Policy and Economic Data - Fed Governor Stephen Milan said that due to increased trade tensions, policymakers need to cut interest rates soon. He expects two interest rate cuts this year. - The New York Fed's manufacturing index rose 19.4 points to 10.7 in October, far exceeding market expectations, and the outlook index reached its highest level since the beginning of the year [4].

Core Insights - Silver prices surged above $51 per ounce, reaching a historical high against all major currencies, driven by a nearly twofold increase in borrowing rates for silver in the London market [1][4] - Gold prices fluctuated around $50 per ounce but failed to break the new benchmark set in London, with a significant drop following news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [1] - Current net demand for silver is approximately 50% from industrial and other production uses, with historical peaks in silver prices previously leading to significant declines [1][5] Silver Market Dynamics - The one-month borrowing rate for silver in London has increased nearly twofold to over 19% annually, indicating heightened competition for silver in the market [1][4] - The SLV silver ETF has expanded for three consecutive trading days, reaching its largest scale since September last year, requiring 15,415 tons of silver to support its issued shares, equivalent to over seven months of global silver production [6] - Strong industrial demand, particularly due to accelerated solar panel installations in China by 2025, alongside a surge in silver ETF inflows, has been noted by Morgan Stanley [5][6] Price Trends and Historical Context - Silver prices in London reached around $49.64 per ounce, slightly above historical levels, but a significant portion of the gains was erased by the end of trading [5] - Historical patterns indicate that similar price surges have often been followed by average declines of 24% over the subsequent two months [7] - The price gap between London and Shanghai gold markets has widened, reaching the highest level since 2020, indicating market discrepancies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the silver market and the impact of U.S. political developments on commodity prices, particularly silver and gold, amid rising government shutdown risks and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 97.74, while spot silver opened at $43.06 per ounce and is currently around $43.13 per ounce. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 10,193 yuan per kilogram, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 10,250 yuan per kilogram [1]. - Last Friday, the dollar index rose by 0.30% to close at 97.66, while spot silver increased by 3.05% to close at $43.07 per ounce. This surge was attributed to the failure of the Republican funding bill, raising the risk of a government shutdown [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Milan, indicated that further interest rate cuts are likely in the coming months, with a focus on addressing rising unemployment risks. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggested that two more rate cuts this year would be appropriate if the labor market weakens more than expected [3]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened last week at $42.17, experienced a low of $41.10, and reached a high of $43.095 before closing at $43.049. The market showed a long lower shadow hammer candlestick pattern, suggesting potential bullish sentiment [5]. - Current trading strategies include holding long positions with stop-loss orders set at $42.4, targeting levels of $43.1, $43.3, and $43.5 [5]. ETF Holdings - The SLV silver ETF holds 15,205.14 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [2].

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.25, while spot silver opened at $38.56/oz and is currently around $38.72/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9338 yuan/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is at 9366 yuan/kg [1] - On August 25, the dollar index rose by 0.73% to close at 98.43, while spot silver fell by 0.69% to $38.55/oz. This decline in silver is attributed to a decrease in optimistic sentiment regarding interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the dollar index [1] Economic Data - The latest data shows that SLV silver ETF holdings remain unchanged at 15,288.82 tons [2] - Economic indicators released include a 0.6% month-over-month decline in new home sales for July, which was below the expected 0.5% increase. Additionally, the Dallas Fed's business activity index for August came in at -1.8, lower than the expected 0.9, raising concerns about the health of the US economy [3] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened at $38.87, reached a high of $38.991, and then experienced a strong pullback, with a low of $38.524. The daily close was at $38.543, forming a long upper shadow on a bearish candlestick. Following a reduction in long positions from $37.8, the strategy is to hold positions at $38, with targets set at $38.5, $38.35, and $38.2 for potential exits [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is reacting to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, influenced by recent comments from Powell, which have led to increased trading activity in precious metals like silver and gold [3]. Group 1: Market Data - The current trading price of silver is approximately $38.90 per ounce, with T+D silver trading around 9345 yuan per kilogram [1]. - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 11.3 tons to a total of 15,288.82 tons [2]. - Last week, silver opened at $37.937, reached a high of $39.058, and closed at $38.895, indicating a strong bullish trend [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Dallas Fed's business activity index for August is a key focus for the market today [1]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 84.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a cumulative 50 basis point cut having a 44.1% probability [3]. Group 3: Global Trade and Policy - President Trump announced tariffs on furniture imported from other countries, while Canadian Prime Minister Carney stated that retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods under the USMCA will be lifted, effective September 1 [3].