证 券 研 究 报 告 传媒行业周观察（20250818-20250822） 关注中报超预期标的及港股流动性变化，看 推荐（维持） 好后续游戏、AI、IP、影视行情 【市场观点】 行业研究 传媒 2025 年 08 月 25 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘欣 邮箱：liuxin3@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521010001 证券分析师：王世豪 邮箱：wangshihao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070005 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 140 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 18,810.16 | 1.63 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 17,127.16 | 1.85 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 12.1% | 11.1% | 81.8% | | 相对表现 | 5.8% | 1.0% | 49.7% | -5% 24% 53% 82% 24/08 24/11 25/01 25/03 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 传媒互联网周报 优于大市 《黑神话》第二部作品发布预告片， "广电 21 条"发布 传媒板块本周表现：行业上涨 6.47%，跑赢沪深 300，跑输创业板指。本周 （8.18-8.22）传媒行业上涨 6.47%，跑赢沪深 300（4.90%），跑输创业板 指（8.62%）。其中涨幅靠前的分别为顺网科技、果麦文化、昆仑万维、智 度股份等，跌幅靠前的分别为上海电影、冰川网络、长江传媒、神州泰岳等。 横向比较来看，本周传媒板块在所有板块中涨跌幅排名第 5 位。 重点关注：《黑神话》第二部作品发布预告片，"广电 21 条"发布。1）深 度求索发布 DeepSeek-V3.1-Base，在 HuggingFace 的热门模型榜上上升至第 四位，巩固了其在长文本处理领域的领先地位；2）智谱发布 AutoGLM 2.0 升级版本，新版本可以在任何设备任何场景下运行，可以支持操作数十个高 频应用；3）"广电 21 条"发布，提出 21 条改革措施，有望增加优质内容 供给、释放创作活力；4）游戏科学发布黑神话系列第二部作品《黑神话： 钟馗》预告片。 本周重要数据跟踪：点点互动表现亮眼，暑 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The media industry saw a weekly increase of 1.00%, ranking 17th among industries, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.55% [3][15] - Tencent's Q2 performance was strong, with domestic game revenue reaching 404 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17% [5][41] - The report highlights the growth potential in AI applications and cultural exports, particularly in gaming, IP, short dramas, and publishing sectors [7][43] Market Performance - The media industry (Shenwan) increased by 1.00% from August 9 to August 15, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.55% [3][15] - Notable performers included Jishi Media, Youzu Network, and Tencent Holdings, with weekly increases of 45.19%, 19.88%, and 5.53% respectively [22][23] Industry Key Data and Updates AI Application Data - Estimated iOS downloads for various AI applications from August 8 to August 14 were 38.14 million for Deepseek, 208.17 million for Doubao, 60.64 million for Quark, and 121.11 million for Tencent Yuanbao, with Tencent Yuanbao showing a significant increase of 63.43% [4][26] Gaming Data - Tencent's domestic game revenue for Q2 2025 was 404 billion yuan, a 17% year-on-year increase, with the game "Delta Force" achieving an average daily active user count exceeding 20 million [5][28] - In July 2025, three new products entered the overseas revenue TOP30 list, including "Persona 5: The Phantom X" and "Sword and Magic" [30] Film Data - The total box office for the week of August 8 to August 14 was 1.518 billion yuan, with "Nanjing Photo Studio" leading the summer box office [37][39] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on themes such as AI applications and cultural exports, with particular attention to gaming, IP, short dramas, and publishing sectors. Recommended companies include Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Perfect World [7][43]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The OCIO (Outsourced Chief Investment Officer) model has seen a growth of over 2.6 times in management scale over the past decade, with the top five institutions holding 67% market share [7][8] - The market for OCIO services is diversifying, with non-pension clients like endowment funds and private wealth increasing their share, projected to grow at a CAGR of over 10% in the next five years [7][8] Group 2: Construction and Building Materials - The new Tibet-Xinjiang railway is expected to accelerate construction, with a total investment estimated between 300 billion to 400 billion yuan and a construction period of 7-8 years [10] - The cement prices have stabilized, with a recent increase of 20 yuan/ton in Henan, while the overall demand remains low due to adverse weather conditions [11] - The building materials sector is expected to benefit from major projects like the Tibet-Xinjiang railway and the Yaxi Water Conservancy Project, with recommendations to focus on companies like Conch Cement and Xiamen C&D [13] Group 3: Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.75% increase, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.37 percentage points, with notable gains in companies like *ST Xifa and Rock Group [15] - The liquor industry is under pressure, with companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye actively launching new products to meet diverse consumer demands [15][16] - The beer segment is entering a peak season, with recommendations for companies like Yanjing Beer and China Resources Snow Breweries [17] Group 4: Electric Equipment and New Energy - A meeting among major dry-process lithium battery separator manufacturers reached a consensus on "anti-involution," focusing on price discipline and capacity management [21][22] - The lithium battery and core materials sector is expected to see a rebound in profitability due to the implementation of anti-involution policies [21][22] Group 5: Chemical Industry - Wanhua Chemical reported a 11.1% increase in revenue for Q2 2025, with a focus on cost control leading to a slight decrease in net profit margin [24][25] - The polyurethane segment showed stable growth, with a projected increase in production capacity expected to enhance profitability [24][25] Group 6: Education - Action Education reported a revenue decline of 11.7% in H1 2025, but a narrowing of cash collection decline in Q2, attributed to AI-driven marketing strategies [26][28] - The company is focusing on expanding its business coverage through initiatives like the "Hundred Schools Plan," which has shown early positive results [26][28] Group 7: Beverage Industry - Yanjing Beer reported a 6.4% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by the strong performance of its flagship product, Yanjing U8 [29][30] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from product structure upgrades and internal reforms, with profit growth projected to remain robust [32][33]

Summary of Yonyou Network Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yonyou Network - **Industry**: Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and AI applications Key Points and Arguments 1. **Financial Performance**: Yonyou Network significantly reduced losses through personnel optimization, achieving a positive cash flow with a year-on-year increase of 600 million in operating cash flow in the first half of the year [2][3][4] 2. **Contract Growth**: New contract value increased by nearly 8% in the first half of the year, with a growth rate of 18% in the second quarter, indicating a notable improvement in operational conditions [2][3] 3. **Organizational Restructuring**: The company shifted from a regional management structure to an industry vertical management model, which initially impacted orders but is expected to improve significantly starting from Q1 2025 [2][3][7] 4. **BIP Platform Investment**: Yonyou has invested 10 billion in the BIP platform, accounting for 60% of total revenue, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions by integrating internal data and business flows, similar to ServiceNow [2][5][6] 5. **Upcoming Product Launch**: A new version of the BIP platform (BIP5) will be released in mid-August 2025, enhancing technical architecture and functionality to better meet the needs of large enterprises [2][5][6] 6. **AI Product Development**: The company plans to launch multiple AI agent products in areas such as inventory management and human resources next week, with further AI-related updates expected in the mid-term report on August 30, 2025 [2][8] 7. **Revenue Forecast**: Yonyou Network anticipates a revenue growth of nearly 10% this year, reaching 9.88 billion, with projections of over 10% growth next year and 12.5 billion by 2027 [4][10] 8. **Profitability Outlook**: The company expects to significantly narrow losses this year, achieve breakeven next year, and gradually restore normal profit margins thereafter [4][10] 9. **Valuation Comparison**: Yonyou's current price-to-sales (PS) ratio is 5.4 times, which is over 40% lower than the industry average of 7.6 times, indicating substantial upside potential [4][10] Additional Important Information - **Market Position**: As the largest ERP provider in China, Yonyou's BIP platform is positioned to compete effectively in the enterprise service market [5][6] - **AI Application Trends**: The global enterprise service AI application market is rapidly evolving, with significant developments from companies like SAP, Salesforce, and ServiceNow, which Yonyou aims to leverage [6][8] - **Other Companies of Interest**: Recommendations include Wanjun Technology and Shensanda, with Wanjun expected to see significant progress in the multi-modal field and Shensanda excelling in data services [11][12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Amazon - **Industry**: Cloud Computing, E-commerce, AI Applications Core Insights and Arguments - **AWS Performance**: Amazon Web Services (AWS) reported Q2 revenue of $30.9 billion, a year-over-year growth of 17.5%, which is lower than Google Cloud's 32% and Microsoft Cloud's 23% growth rates. This underperformance has led to a decrease in market expectations for AWS, resulting in a stock price adjustment [2][3] - **North America Revenue**: Amazon's North America revenue grew by 11% to $100 billion, with a profit margin of 7.5%. The number of paid product units increased by 12%, and the share of third-party seller units reached a record high [2][4] - **Prime Day Success**: The recent Prime Day event achieved record sales and user registrations, indicating strong consumer engagement [5] - **Advertising Revenue**: Amazon's advertising business grew by 22% year-over-year, reaching $15.7 billion, which is competitive compared to Meta's 20% growth in advertising revenue [5] Other Important Insights - **AI Applications Growth**: Hikvision's half-year report indicates improvement across various sectors, particularly in AI applications, which are expected to drive future demand for domestic computing power. Companies like Huawei and Cambricon are anticipated to benefit from this trend [2][6] - **AI as a Core Focus**: The second half of the year is expected to see significant developments in AI applications, with strong revenue and order fulfillment from domestic large models and internal AI applications [7] - **Global Computing Demand**: There is strong global demand for computing power, but competition is intensifying among major players like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google in enterprise services, AI technology, and hybrid cloud solutions [8][12] - **Impact of AI on Advertising**: AI technology is enhancing advertising effectiveness, as evidenced by Meta's advertising revenue growth, which reflects improved pricing and volume [9][10] - **Q3 2025 Projections**: Amazon's net sales for Q3 2025 are projected to be between $174 billion and $179.5 billion, with profits expected between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion, driven by increased demand for AI services [11] - **Domestic Software Companies**: Domestic software companies are expanding overseas, achieving significant growth rates of 30%-40% and benefiting from higher profit margins in international markets [15][16] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted Amazon's mixed performance, particularly in its cloud services, while also emphasizing the growth potential in AI applications and the competitive landscape in the computing industry. The insights provided a comprehensive view of the current market dynamics and future opportunities for both Amazon and the broader technology sector.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Pork Industry**: Focus on companies like Muyuan, Dekang, Wens, Shennong, and Juxing Agriculture - **Beauty and Personal Care Industry**: Highlighting brands such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei - **Gold and Jewelry Industry**: Recommendations for Changhongqi and Caibai - **Retail Industry**: Emphasis on Xiaoshangpin City and Bubu Gao - **Education and Training Sector**: Focus on K12 education leaders and AI applications - **Restaurant and Beverage Sector**: Recommendations for Mixue and Guming - **Automotive Industry**: Focus on Huawei's smart vehicles and Changan Automobile - **Textile Manufacturing Sector**: Recommendations for companies in the ASEAN region and Nike's supply chain - **Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry**: Focus on companies with high R&D investment Core Points and Arguments - **Pork Industry**: The significant impact of pork prices on CPI, with a noted 8.5% decrease in pork prices leading to a 0.12 percentage point drop in CPI in June 2025. The strategy of capacity control to boost pork prices is crucial to mitigate CPI pressure [2][3][4] - **Beauty and Personal Care**: The industry is in a traditional off-season, but high-end brands like Mao Ge Ping and operationally strong brands like Shangmei are recommended due to low base effects from last year [6] - **Gold and Jewelry**: Despite a 20% drop in gold jewelry consumption in Q2, brands with strong same-store performance like Changhongqi and low-valuation, high-dividend companies like Caibai are recommended [6] - **Retail Sector**: Xiaoshangpin City is highlighted for its strong business certainty, while Bubu Gao is noted for potential investment opportunities post-unlock of shares [7] - **Education Sector**: K12 education leaders and AI applications are emphasized, with companies like Dou Shen and Fen Bi showing strong growth [8] - **Restaurant Sector**: The rise of takeaway services is noted, with companies like Guming and Mixue recommended for their growth potential [8][9] - **Automotive Sector**: Huawei's smart vehicles are performing well, with new models like M7 and M8 expected to launch soon, while Changan's S9 model shows stable delivery [10][11][12] - **Textile Manufacturing**: The sector is expected to see performance and stock price turning points, with a focus on companies benefiting from reduced tariffs in the ASEAN region [13][14][15] - **Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry**: A new cycle of R&D investment is anticipated, with a focus on companies sensitive to domestic demand recovery and those specializing in large molecules and oncology [26][27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Pork Industry**: The adjustment in the pork breeding sector is linked to broader economic conditions and CPI management strategies [3][4][5] - **Retail Sector**: The potential for supermarkets and department stores to experience operational turning points is noted [7] - **Automotive Sector**: The upcoming launch of multiple new models indicates a strategic push for market share [10][11][12] - **Textile Manufacturing**: The impact of tariff changes on the competitive landscape and the potential for recovery in the sector is highlighted [14][15] - **Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry**: The increasing trend of funding sources and the focus on early-stage research are critical for future growth [26][27]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 403 points or 1.6% to close at 24,773 points on July 31, marking the second consecutive day of significant decline[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.7% to 5,453 points, with total market turnover at HKD 320.6 billion, indicating active trading[1] - Net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 13.13 billion, showing continued positive sentiment[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, exceeding expectations, while year-on-year growth was 2.0%, consistent with Q1 but down from 2.7% in Q4 of the previous year[2] - U.S. nominal GDP growth slowed to 4.5%, the lowest since Q1 2021, indicating a potential weakening in domestic demand[2] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC maintained interest rates but remains cautious about future rate cuts, with inflation being a primary concern[3] - The U.S. CPI is expected to rebound in the coming months due to low base effects and tariff impacts, although core service inflation may be constrained by a slowing job market[3] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector, represented by the Hang Seng Healthcare Index, fell by 1.4% without significant negative news affecting the industry[5] - Notable stocks like Tencent and Kuaishou rose against the market trend due to AI application demand, while gaming stocks like MGM China surged by 6.4%[1] Industry Developments - The semiconductor sector faced challenges with Nvidia's H20 chip safety issues, impacting related stocks like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which saw slight gains[4] - The new energy and utility sectors experienced widespread declines, particularly in the photovoltaic segment, with stocks like Xinyi Solar dropping by 4.7% to 6.4%[6] Real Estate Trends - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 16.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a decline of 26.1%[11] - The land transaction volume decreased by 48.6% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in real estate activity[14] Company Performance - WuXi AppTec reported a 20.6% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with Non-IFRS adjusted net profit rising by 44.4%[7] - The company announced a mid-term dividend of RMB 3.50 per 10 shares, expected to boost market confidence[9]

Group 1: Company Growth and Market Position - The company achieved a revenue of 319 million CNY in Q1 2025 for its enterprise-level storage products, representing a growth of over 200% year-on-year [3] - The company is one of the few A-share listed companies that publicly disclose specific performance metrics for enterprise-level storage products, showcasing its unique market position [3] - The company has established strong recognition among major clients across various industries, including large internet companies and telecom operators, indicating robust adaptability and reliability of its products [3] Group 2: TCM Model and Strategic Partnerships - The company has successfully established a TCM (Technology Contract Model) partnership with SanDisk, leveraging its leading capabilities in chip design and manufacturing [5] - The UFS 4.1 products, featuring the company's self-developed main control chip, demonstrate superior performance with sequential read/write speeds of 4350MB/s and 4200MB/s, and random read/write speeds of 630K IOPS and 750K IOPS [5] - The TCM model is expected to enhance revenue and profit by increasing visibility in supply and demand, thereby mitigating price volatility and creating sustained value [5] Group 3: Self-Developed Main Control Chip - The company has launched three main control chips for eMMC, SD cards, and automotive-grade USB products, with cumulative applications exceeding 30 million units [6] - The company anticipates significant growth in the application scale of its self-developed main control chips throughout 2025, maintaining its competitive edge in the storage market [7] - The company plans to continue collaborating with third-party main control chip manufacturers to diversify its product offerings and enhance storage solutions [7] Group 4: Market Trends and Price Outlook - The semiconductor storage market has shown signs of recovery since late March 2025, driven by inventory digestion and increased downstream demand [7] - Price trends for storage products are expected to rise in Q3 2025 due to production cuts announced by major storage wafer manufacturers and increased demand from server OEM customers and mobile storage capacity upgrades [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [41]. Core Insights - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC 2025) opened on July 26, focusing on AI applications, including embodied intelligence, intelligent agents, and AI glasses, which received significant attention [11][16]. - Unitree Technology launched its third humanoid robot, Unitree R1, which features 26 joints and is priced starting at 39,900 yuan, aimed at providing a development platform for AI developers and educational scenarios [17][20]. - The Q2 2025 fund holding report for the computer industry shows a slight increase in the fund holding ratio to 2.46%, with significant changes in the top ten heavy stocks compared to Q1 2025 [21]. Summary by Sections Company Dynamics - Nanjing Information plans to sign a three-year framework contract with its controlling shareholder for a total integrated procurement project, with an estimated total amount of 58.27 million yuan [3]. - New Beiyang's subsidiary won a bid for a cash machine procurement project for China Construction Bank, covering the period from 2025 to 2028 [3]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch in the AI application sector include iFlytek, Kingsoft Office, Hehe Information, Dingjie Smart, and Hengsheng Electronics [4]. - Companies in the humanoid robot supply chain to consider include Tuolisi, Hongsoft Technology, Zhongke Chuangda, Softcom Power, and Suochen Technology [4]. Industry News - The AI server market is projected to see a decrease in the share of purchased Nvidia/AMD chips from approximately 63% in 2024 to about 42% by 2025, with domestic chips expected to grow to 40% [25]. - The AI industry in China has surpassed 700 billion yuan, indicating a significant expansion in the digital economy [27][28].