Report Information - Report Title: "Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Industry Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Oils Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures have been on a continuous downward trend. Due to concerns about increased production and slower exports, the futures price has broken below the annual - line support of 4,350 ringgit. There is still pressure for an inertial decline, and it may fall further under the potential negative impact of rising month - end inventories. It is expected to test the support around 4,200 ringgit. After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report next month and with the support of the production slowdown season starting in November, Malaysian palm oil may gradually stop falling, stabilize, and rebound [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures have been dragged down by the Malaysian palm oil trend and have fallen significantly. After breaking below the annual - line support, there is pressure for further weakness. It may stop falling or stage a short - term oversold rebound around 8,800 yuan; otherwise, it may fall to 8,600 yuan. Given the increasing port inventories, the decline of Malaysian palm oil, and weakening demand due to lower temperatures, a short - term bearish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to whether it can follow the Malaysian palm oil trend and stop falling and stabilize in the first and middle of next month [3]. Soybean Oil - Currently, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient while demand is weak, presenting a bearish fundamental situation. CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil may continue to fall, dragging down Dalian soybean oil. The market is closely watching the Sino - US trade negotiations. If the negotiation results lead to a breakthrough rise in CBOT soybeans, Dalian soybean oil may quickly rebound; otherwise, if CBOT soybeans fall again, the January contract of Dalian soybean oil may break below the integer - level support [3]. Oilseeds Soybean Meal - News of COFCO's purchase of 180,000 tons of US soybeans this week has led to a mixed sentiment among the long and short sides. The market is trading cautiously, waiting for the final result and specific details of the Sino - US trade agreement. The short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal may consolidate in the range of 2,950 - 2,980 yuan. In the spot market, most of the oil mills' fixed - price offers remain stable, with some decreasing by 10 yuan/ton, and the near - month basis remains stable. The pattern of weak oils and strong meals continues, and the improvement of oil mills' crushing profits is limited. The small - scale arrival of Argentine soybean meal has little impact on the market. The rebound of pig prices has stimulated some breeding enterprises to enter the secondary fattening market. Feed mills are generally waiting due to safety inventories, and traders have limited motivation to chase the rising prices due to a small number of low - price contracts. Both are waiting for the clarity of the Sino - US negotiations [14]. Data Summary Oils Oils' Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads - P 1 - 5: - 22 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; Y - P 01: - 776 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; etc. [4] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Palm oil 01: 8,842 yuan/ton, down 1.29%; BMD palm oil main contract: 4,245 ringgit/ton, down 1.67%; etc. [5] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Soybean oil 01: 8,132 yuan/ton, down 0.2%; CBOT soybean oil main contract: 50.16 cents/pound, down 1.01%; etc. [11] Oilseeds Oilseeds Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01: 2,969 yuan, down 6 yuan, down 0.2%; CBOT yellow soybeans: 1,093.5, unchanged; etc. [15] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - M01 - 05: 180 yuan, up 39 yuan; RM01 - 05: 58 yuan, up 46 yuan; etc. [16]

黄金昨天低开低走，干脆又来了一个跳水，一路狂跌超120美金，最终还是失守4000关口，震荡破低，看大空回调延 续，下看3900的关口。 昨天4030附近，再次多获利。 而且，我们9月和10月策略稳健，整体持续获利。 | | | | | 【8位数章金团队】 1标准手跟单情况 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 間期 | 时间 | 品种 | 方向 | 讲场 | 止损 | 止营 | 北台 | 净收获 | 净留与 | | | 8月26日 金 | | ਝੇਂ | 3375 | 3380 | 3356 | 3351 | 20 | 2000 | | 8日 | 8月26日 金 | | 2 | 3381 | 3387 | 3365 | 3387 | -6 | -600 | | | 8月27日 金 | | 8 | 3384 | 3390 | 3372 | 3390 | -6 | -600 | | | 9月2日 金 | | ಭ | 3496 | 3501 | 3480 | 3501 | =5 | -500 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the complexities of U.S.-China trade relations, particularly focusing on the soybean market, where U.S. farmers face significant challenges due to China's refusal to purchase American soybeans, which has become a focal point in trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - The U.S. agricultural sector, particularly soybean production, has seen a bumper harvest this year, yet China, the largest buyer in previous years, has ceased purchases, causing distress among U.S. farmers and the government [1]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who is also a soybean farmer, expressed personal financial distress due to China's refusal to buy U.S. soybeans, highlighting the direct impact of trade policies on individual farmers [3]. Group 2: Trade Negotiation Challenges - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have reached a "substantial framework," but significant compromises and further dialogue are necessary to resolve the long-standing trade war [4]. - The U.S. must make concessions on key issues, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, to alter the current passive stance in negotiations, as continued hardline approaches may lead to further isolation [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Diplomatic Strategies - The article suggests that reasonable dialogue and compromise are essential for resolving conflicts, as the trade war cannot be a long-term solution in an increasingly globalized economy [6][8]. - There is hope for a balanced solution that meets the needs of U.S. soybean farmers while addressing China's concerns, but timely and substantive progress is crucial to avoid further harm [6][8].

本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；今日换算系数，国际金价/4.368≈国内金价。 受中美和谈影响，昨天黄金低开低走，盘中虽然说一度反弹，但是最终也没能够再让4100美元关口。欧洲盘时段震荡向下破位4040-50区域，美盘时段向下 发力跌破4000美元大关；最低至3971线之后反弹，日线以大阴线收盘。国内沪金，上海金也跌了20多块，自历史高点目前下跌接近100元！ 我们强调了，目前黄金属于超级大扫荡。本周消息也比较多，各大央行将公布利率协议，并且中美贸易谈判以及美国总统特朗普出访亚洲国家，这对局势都 有一定的影响。所以说，操作上高空为主；但不要过分地追空，在关键位置出击，带好止损。今天早盘3970-4020一波扫荡后，还要折腾，冲高做空为主， 3970-75下破前短线可做反弹！ 上周五美国CPI数据全线低于预期，加强了10月份降息的概率，10月份降息目前是板上钉钉；但是黄金也只是仅仅反弹了一下，当前市场上中美和谈是属于 比较大的利空，同时菲律宾央行抛售黄金也是构成一定的利空。 国际白银，昨天和黄金一起暴跌，逼近中期支撑45-46区域，抵达区间后着手买多，以下45-44.5作为风控。但，短期而言，依 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the recent US-China trade negotiations did not yield significant benefits for the US, with both sides unable to reach a substantial agreement despite ongoing discussions [1][11] - The article highlights that the US's hardline stance and attempts to pressure China have not been effective, as evidenced by the lack of positive outcomes from the negotiations [1][3] - The analysis suggests that the US's approach, characterized by tariffs and restrictions, has inadvertently strengthened China's position in the trade conflict [8][11] Group 2 - The article outlines three reasons for China's advantageous position in the trade negotiations: first, the flexibility of China's response to US actions, which has led to a perception of unpredictability in US policy [3][6] - Secondly, China's countermeasures have become increasingly targeted and impactful, directly affecting key political and economic interests in the US, such as targeting agricultural exports that are crucial for Trump's voter base [6][11] - Lastly, the trade conflict has prompted China to bolster its industrial capabilities, demonstrating the importance of self-sufficiency in the face of external economic pressures [8][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite the recent decline in gold and silver prices due to improved US-China trade relations and geopolitical easing, the long-term bullish factors for gold remain intact, especially with an anticipated interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve [2][3]. - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, breaking the support level of 4000 and reaching a low of 3970, but have since rebounded above 4000, suggesting potential for further upward movement [3]. - The market is advised to remain cautious but optimistic about gold and silver, as there may be opportunities to buy on dips, particularly if prices stabilize above key resistance levels [4][5]. Group 2 - Domestic gold prices fell sharply, with the Shanghai gold contract hitting a low of 916, and the market is closely watching the 900 support level for potential reversal [4]. - International silver prices dropped below 47.5, reaching a low of 46, which is now seen as a potential mid-term bottom, suggesting a buying opportunity around this level [4]. - The Shanghai silver contract also faced a decline, with a focus on the 11200 support level, indicating a cautious approach to trading until a clear upward trend is established [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, with a recommendation to buy at support levels for gold and reduce long positions in silver [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish, while the alumina price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [2]. - Zinc is recommended to be short - sold at high prices, and lead is recommended to be bought on pullbacks [2][3]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in short supply in the short - term, with prices volatile and bullish, and it is necessary to closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts [3]. - Polysilicon's 11 - contract has a price bottom support at 48,000 yuan, and the 12 - contract and later contracts are expected to trade in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan, with a suggestion to buy on dips [3][4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract and the iron ore 2605 contract, and to wait and see for coking coal [4]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are short - term bullish, corn is expected to be volatile and bearish, oils and fats are bearish, sugar is recommended to be short - sold in the futures market and sell call options, cotton is advisable to wait and see, eggs are expected to be range - bound, pigs are expected to recover, and apples are advisable to wait and see [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE and PP are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the long - term, PVC is recommended to be short - sold or in a reverse spread, PTA is recommended to be long - bought in the medium - term and short - sold for processing fees in the long - term, rubber is expected to be range - bound, glass is recommended to be in a reverse spread, MEG is recommended to be short - sold at high prices, styrene is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term, and soda ash is advisable to wait and see [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: International gold priced in London gold fell below the $4000 support on Monday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Trump extended the US - Mexico trade negotiation period, and there were multiple international trade and policy events. Gold and silver inventories in various markets changed, and ETF holdings decreased [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in October. It is recommended to buy gold at support levels and reduce long positions in silver [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 0.64% to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the alumina main contract rose 0.68% to 2829 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate was stable. Some alumina plants resumed production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the alumina price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton, and social inventories increased slightly [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: The mine supply was abundant, smelting profits were high, and consumption was flat [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai lead 2511 contract fell 0.62% to 17,525 yuan/ton, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply became generally tight, and there was still rigid demand from lead - acid batteries [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 01 contract rose 0.50% to 8965 yuan/ton, with increased positions and decreased warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply might decrease in the future, and demand was relatively stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2601 rose 2.9% to 81,900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand was strong, with expected inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, and closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 01 contract rose 4.20% to 54,500 yuan/ton, with increased positions and decreased warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply might decrease, demand was relatively stable, and the fourth - quarter photovoltaic installation growth was under pressure [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 11 - contract has a price bottom support at 48,000 yuan, and the 12 - contract and later contracts are expected to trade in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan, with a suggestion to buy on dips [3][4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The rebar 2601 contract rose to 3111 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Building material inventories decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited but with significant structural differentiation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract, and the RB01 reference range is 3070 - 3140 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore 2601 contract rose to 790.5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was in line with the seasonal pattern, and demand was relatively strong, with expected slow inventory accumulation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the iron ore 2605 contract, and the I01 reference range is 780 - 810 yuan/ton [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal 2601 contract rose to 1262 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side inventories were differentiated, and there was an expected production reduction [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and the JM01 reference range is 1230 - 1270 yuan/ton [4]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans had a slight reduction in production, and South America had an expected increase in production. Demand was differentiated [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, and domestic soybeans are range - bound, paying attention to tariff policies [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices were weak, and spot prices fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Corn quality in North China was damaged, and new grain was about to be listed, with weak downstream demand [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production increased, and exports decreased, with inventory accumulation in the near term [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are bearish, and the P structure is suitable for reverse spreads [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rose 0.2% to 5444 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic sugar production is uncertain. The market may face downward pressure if northern hemisphere production increases [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures prices fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton was range - bound [6]. - **Fundamentals**: US cotton quality was good, and Vietnam's textile exports increased. Domestic cotton acquisition in northern Xinjiang was coming to an end [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a range - bound strategy of 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices rose, and spot prices were mixed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices were low, demand increased, but supply was sufficient, and vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be range - bound [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to rebound, and spot prices rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Pig supply increased, slaughter volume recovered, and secondary fattening entered the market [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to recover [7]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose 0.97% to 8936 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Apple prices in some regions rose, the overall quality was poor, and inventory was low [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly, and the import window was closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand improved in the agricultural film season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile in the short - term, and bearish in the long - term, with suggestions to short - sell at high prices or in a reverse spread [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V01 rose 0.6% to 4747 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or in a reverse spread [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX CFR China price was 821 dollars/ton, and PTA spot price was 4505 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply was high, PTA production increased, and polyester demand improved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - buy in the medium - term and short - sell for processing fees in the long - term [9]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: RU2601 closed at 15380 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Raw material prices were supportive, and inventory decreased [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound in the short - term with strong support at the bottom [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: FG01 closed flat at 1095 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was high, demand was weak, and inventory accumulated [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Reverse spread [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand improved during the peak season but was affected by previous subsidies [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile in the short - term, and bearish in the long - term, with suggestions to short - sell at high prices or in a reverse spread [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG spot price was 4183 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 84 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was high, and inventory was expected to accumulate [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand contradictions were large, and demand was affected by previous subsidies [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile and bearish in the short - term, and bearish in the long - term, with suggestions to short - sell at high prices or in a reverse spread [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA01 rose 1.3% to 1247 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand were balanced, and inventory increased slightly [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 surged 1.1% to 6,850, marking a fresh intraday record, driven by strong earnings from tech giants and renewed optimism over a potential US-China trade truce [19][20] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 208 points to 47,412, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.5% to 23,561, extending its winning streak [19][20] - Nearly 70% of S&P 500 companies beat Q3 earnings estimates, reinforcing investor confidence in corporate profits despite global headwinds [6][19] Key Companies and Performance - Qualcomm soared 13% after unveiling its latest AI-powered Snapdragon chips, directly challenging Nvidia and AMD in the AI hardware market [1][11] - Nvidia rose 2%, Broadcom added 1%, and AMD gained nearly 1.5%, pushing the semiconductor index to new highs [1][11] - Tesla jumped 4% on upbeat delivery projections, while Apple climbed 1%, edging closer to a historic $4 trillion market cap [2][11] Economic Indicators - Treasury yields stabilized, with the 10-year yield hovering near 4.58%, easing pressure on growth stocks [3][19] - Investor sentiment improved following reports of a potential limited trade tariff rollback between Washington and Beijing, which could support corporate earnings into 2026 [6][9] Trade Relations - Reports indicated that the U.S. and China are exploring a framework for a trade deal, including a delay in China's rare-earth export restrictions and the withdrawal of planned tariffs [9][10] - The potential resolution of the TikTok dispute may also be part of the discussions, allowing the U.S. to gain rights to a domestic version of the app [10][19] Market Sentiment - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped below 12, signaling strong market confidence [6] - Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the market's momentum, with expectations of continued positive performance amid U.S.-China talks and Fed policy [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Becerra, expressed his pain over China's refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans, highlighting the significant impact on American farmers and the current agricultural situation [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Becerra mentioned that China has drastically reduced its soybean purchases, nearly to zero, which has created a "perfect storm" for U.S. farmers due to high yields this year [1][4]. - Recent trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have reached a "substantial framework," which Becerra believes will alleviate concerns among U.S. soybean growers [3]. Group 2: Agricultural Market Dynamics - Data from the General Administration of Customs indicates that from January to September, China imported 86.18 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. However, in September, China did not import any soybeans from the U.S., marking the first time since November 2018 that imports from the U.S. dropped to zero [5]. - The decline in imports is attributed to high tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the completion of transactions for old soybean stocks harvested in previous years [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook for U.S. Soybean Farmers - Analysts warn that if trade negotiations do not yield positive results, U.S. farmers could face losses amounting to billions of dollars as Chinese buyers continue to source soybeans from South America [7]. - U.S. soybean farmers have attempted to diversify their markets by reaching out to countries like Vietnam and the Philippines, but they acknowledge the difficulty in finding immediate alternatives to the Chinese market [8].

10月25日，吉隆坡。美方在会谈前一口气甩出两大"下马威"：威胁猛加关税，甚至扬言升级关键软件的出口管 制。这就是美方惯用的"极限施压"剧本，企图在开场前就"吓跪"对手。 你怎么看中国这独一份的"谈判底气"？ 为什么唯独中国能顶住？底气来自最硬核的经济数据。就在美国的高额关税壁垒下，光是今年头五个月，中国工 程机械对美出口额，暴涨了两倍多，利润率水涨船高！ 这就是"华尔街某报"也不得不感慨的真相：中国的制造业抗风险能力和韧性，已经强悍到"无视"美国的关税武 器。这使得中方在谈判桌上说话的分量，截然不同。 那篇华尔街的报道一语道破：中方这次几乎在所有关键问题上都坚守立场，根本没留下什么余地，也完全没有随 美方的节奏起舞。 这场谈判，已经从"贸易争端"演变成了"规则较量"。美国想用"关税"和"禁令"勒索，没想到中方用"翻倍的出 口"和"强悍的产业链"当场反制，把美国的"下马威"变成了"两难"的尴尬。 别人退让，不代表中国会随波逐流。 但这场长达五个多小时的谈判，彻底撕碎了美国的剧本。中方代表全程镇定自若，把所有压力一一挡回。谈判结 束，中方气色轻松，直接走出大门。而美方代表，则绕道"地下车库"仓皇离场。谁高谁低， ...