Core Viewpoint - Netflix is expected to report strong revenue growth driven by its ad-supported subscription model and sports live content, despite facing valuation concerns from analysts [1][4]. Group 1: Revenue Growth - Analysts project Q2 revenue to be approximately $11.048 billion, representing a 15.6% year-over-year increase [1]. - Pre-tax profit is anticipated to reach $3.55 billion, up 41% year-over-year [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to $7.07, exceeding the previous quarter's $6.61 [1]. Group 2: Ad-Supported Subscription Model - The ad-supported subscription model launched in 2022 has become a significant revenue source, with active users reaching 94 million by early 2025, up from 40 million the previous year [2]. - Netflix aims to double its ad revenue by the end of fiscal 2025 and plans to reach $9 billion by fiscal 2030 [2]. Group 3: Sports Live Content and Diversification - Netflix is increasing its investment in sports live content, including WWE and NFL events, as part of its strategy to diversify content offerings and attract a broader audience [3]. - The expansion into sports live streaming marks a significant shift from traditional on-demand content [3]. Group 4: Analyst Opinions and Valuation Concerns - Some analysts express caution regarding Netflix's high valuation, with recent downgrades from "buy" to "neutral" due to anticipated growth being largely reflected in current stock prices [4]. - Despite this, the majority of analysts maintain "strong buy" or "buy" ratings based on data from the London Stock Exchange Group [4]. Group 5: Investment Considerations and Future Outlook - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming earnings report for insights into Netflix's performance and future prospects, particularly regarding ad revenue growth and content expansion [5]. - The competitive landscape in the streaming market remains intense, necessitating a balance between content investment and profitability goals [5]. Group 6: Stock Price Technical Analysis - As of last Friday, Netflix's stock price was $1,245.11, with potential to reach $1,500 if it breaks recent historical highs [6]. - The short-term upward trend will continue as long as the support range from early May (between $1,180.61 and $1,159.44) holds [6]. - The long-term bullish trend remains intact as long as the stock price stays above the April low of $821.10 [6].

特朗普对墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普上周六宣布，自今年8月起对墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收 30%的关税。这一决定引发了多个国家和行业的困惑和担忧。 上周，特朗普已经向除欧盟以外的20多个个国家发送了新的关税函，声称对这些国家征收 20%到50%不等的关税，其中巴西被威胁征收50%的关税。其他未收到信函的国家则将被征 收15%至20%不等的关税。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，墨西哥外交部和经济部在一份联合声明中表示，鉴于美 国宣布自8月1日起对墨西哥输美产品征收30%的新关税，墨西哥政府认为这是"不公平待 遇"，墨西哥已开始与美国进行谈判，以保护边境企业和就业。 声明称，自7月11日起，墨西哥代表团成立了"常设双边工作组"，以解决与美国的安全、移民 和经济问题。墨西哥政府在谈判中提到，美国对墨加征关税是不公平的，墨西哥不同意。 在谈判时双方一致认为，目前首要任务是在征收关税之前找到"一个能够保护边境两边企业和 就业的替代方案"。 欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉 ・ 冯德莱恩表示，欧盟将把针对美国的贸易反制措施暂停期延长至 8月1日，以便开展进一步谈判。 德银："鲍威尔被 ...

回顾上周，特朗普关税政策再度扰动市场。美股全线下挫，道指周跌1.02%，纳指周跌0.08%，标普500 指数周跌0.31%。本周，市场迎来经济数据与财报的双重考验。美国6月CPI、PPI数据将相继公布，同 时华尔街大行将拉开美股财报季序幕。 特朗普宣布最新关税政策后，投资者再度涌向避险资产，推动黄金价格反弹。周一亚市早盘，现货黄金 一度站上3370美元/盎司，为6月23日以来首次。消息面上，特朗普周六宣布，自8月1日起对从欧盟、墨 西哥进口的商品分别征收30%关税。 据央视新闻报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当地时间7月13日表示，将把对美国关税的反制措施暂停期 延长至8月初，欧盟一直明确表示倾向于与美国通过协商达成解决方案，这一立场依然不变。 一周前瞻：6月CPI数据即将公布 展望本周，美股市场再度迎来多重考验， 美国6月CPI、PPI数据将相继公布，美股财报季也将正式拉开 序幕。 周二，美国将公布6月CPI数据，市场将据此判断当前通胀情况。目前市场预计CPI年率将会从5月的 2.4%升至2.7%，核心CPI从2.8%反弹至3%，原因在于企业开始向消费者转嫁与关税相关的进口商品成 本。 汇丰银行认为，未来几个月 ...

国信证券发布研报称，6月乘用车市场零售208.4万辆，同比增长18.1%，新能源车零售111.1万辆，同比 增长29.7%，行业景气度持续回升。中长期维度，关注自主崛起和电动智能趋势下增量零部件机遇。一 年期维度，看好强新品周期的华为汽车及车型元年的小米集团-W(01810)汽车产业链。 库存 2025年5月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为52.7%，同比下降5.5个百分点，环比下降7.1个百分点。库存 预警指数位于荣枯线之上，汽车流通行业景气度有所改善。 市场关注 国信证券主要观点如下： 销量跟踪 根据乘联会，2025年6月全国乘用车市场零售208.4万辆，同比增长18.1%，环比增长7.6%，1-6月累计零 售1090.1万辆，同比增长10.8%;6月新能源乘用车市场零售111.1万辆，同比增长29.7%，环比增长 8.2%;1-6月累计零售546.8万辆，增长33.3%;上险数据看，6月(6.2-6.29)国内乘用车累计上牌195.79万 辆，同比+18.4%;其中新能源乘用车累计上牌103.71万辆，同比+30.7%。 本月行情 6月CS汽车板块下跌0.13%，其中CS乘用车下跌2.34%，CS商用车下跌 ...

美国股市已重回历史高位附近。接下来的一周，更为繁忙的经济和财报日程将为投资者提供更多需要关 注的信息。首先，周二公布的CPI数据将为本周的经济议程定下基调。CPI将是投资者和政策制定者需 要考量的重要数据指标，而美联储的下一次利率决策将在不到两周的时间内到来。美股最新财报季也将 于本周拉开序幕。 财报季来袭，银行股打头阵 在财报方面，美股最新财报季将于本周拉开序幕。跟以往一样，所有美国主要银行本周都将首先公布业 绩。投资者对华尔街IPO和并购市场的热情再度高涨，其中，富国银行(WFC.US)摆脱了长达十年更为严 格的监管限制这一情况也可能会成为关注焦点。 对于华尔街银行的最新财报，大摩指出，资本市场已重新活跃起来，预计股票交易将十分活跃，投资银 行业务收入将高于管理层的预期；其次，由于近期的压力测试后资本要求有所降低，大摩预计管理层将 开始公布股票回购计划及管理缓冲措施的相关情况。 与此同时，奈飞(NFLX.US)的财报将拉开美国大型科技公司财报季的序幕，阿斯麦(ASML.US)和台积电 (TSM.US)也将公布有关人工智能相关芯片热潮的重要进展。百事公司(PEP.US)、强生(JNJ.US)、美联航 (UA ...

短短三个月，美股从4月的大幅抛售震荡回升至历史新高。如今，交易员们正拭目以待：美国企业的"成绩单"能否 匹配股市已定价的乐观情绪？ 事实上，市场预期并不高：华尔街正准备迎接2023年中期以来最疲软的财报季。彭博情报数据显示，分析师预计标 普500指数成分股二季度利润同比增长2.5%；11个板块中，有6个预计出现利润下滑；同时，该指数全年增长预期已 从4月初的9.4%降至7.1%。 标普500指数成分股二季度盈利预期降至2年来最低 尽管盈利预期下滑，且企业需应对特朗普的贸易政策，但标普500指数仍处于历史高点附近。 较低的预期反而让企业更容易实现超预期表现。彭博情报策略师吉娜·马丁·亚当斯（Gina Martin Adams）和温迪·宋 （Wendy Soong）表示，从近期企业指引来看，公司很可能轻松超越这些保守预期。 "预期门槛现在非常低，"嘉信理财（Charles Schwab & Co.）高级投资策略师凯文·戈登（Kevin Gordon）称，"这当 然让企业更容易超预期，但我认为重点将是毛利率——尤其是如果关税压力存在，理应在毛利率上体现出来。" 财报季本周拉开帷幕：周三，摩根大通（JPM）、花旗集团 ...

【导读】比特币再创新高，SpaceX将投资20亿美元给马斯克名下人工智能企业xAI 见习记者 储是 特朗普对墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普上周六宣布，自今年8月起对墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收 30%的关税。这一决定引发了多个国家和行业的困惑和担忧。 上周，特朗普已经向除欧盟以外的20多个个国家发送了新的关税函，声称对这些国家征收 20%到50%不等的关税，其中巴西被威胁征收50%的关税。其他未收到信函的国家则将被征 收15%至20%不等的关税。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，墨西哥外交部和经济部在一份联合声明中表示，鉴于美 国宣布自8月1日起对墨西哥输美产品征收30%的新关税，墨西哥政府认为这是"不公平待 遇"，墨西哥已开始与美国进行谈判，以保护边境企业和就业。 声明称，自7月11日起，墨西哥代表团成立了"常设双边工作组"，以解决与美国的安全、移民 和经济问题。墨西哥政府在谈判中提到，美国对墨加征关税是不公平的，墨西哥不同意。 荷兰国际集团策略师在另一份报告中表示，尽管鲍威尔提前离职"不太可能"，但这将导致美 国国债收益率曲线陡峭化，因投资者将对更低利率、更快通胀 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to achieve record high revenue in USD this quarter, driven by the launch of NVIDIA's GB300 AI chip and the new iPhone 17 series, with projections indicating revenue will remain above $30 billion, growing by 3% to 7% quarter-over-quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - TSMC will hold an earnings call on Thursday (17th) to announce last quarter and half-year financial results, as well as outlook for the current quarter [1] - Analysts predict that the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may reduce the surprise factor in TSMC's profit figures for the last quarter, with gross margin and operating margin expected to approach lower limits [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The GB300 chip is set to enter mass production, becoming a key driver for TSMC's high-performance computing (HPC) business, with NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip platform, Rubin, expected to launch in 2026, further tightening capacity utilization for TSMC's 3nm family [1] - The GB300 chip enhances AI inference capabilities, supporting applications in generative AI, agent AI, and physical AI [1] Group 3: Supply Chain Insights - The GB300 chip's performance improvements are anticipated to be a major highlight in the AI industry for the second half of the year, with TSMC being the primary manufacturer [2] - Foxconn is expected to secure the largest share of orders for AI server assembly, with other companies like Quanta, Wistron, and Inventec also ramping up shipments [1][2] Group 4: Product Launches - The upcoming launch of Apple's iPhone 17 series is expected to boost TSMC's advanced process orders, with supply chain estimates indicating a single-digit percentage increase in the flagship model's inventory compared to last year [2] - The new iPhone's AI features are projected to increase silicon content, making it a significant outlet for TSMC's 3nm family, with Apple also set to be the first customer for TSMC's upcoming 2nm capacity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in trade negotiations, the impact of tariffs on inflation, and the upcoming economic data releases that could influence monetary policy decisions in the US and Europe [1][3][6]. Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - President Trump announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs on several trade partners, leading to a decline in US stock markets, with the Dow Jones down 1.02% and the S&P 500 down 0.31% for the week [1]. - The deadline for the new tariffs to take effect is August 1, and investors are awaiting further news on trade negotiations [1][3]. - The EU is attempting to reach a trade agreement with the US, with concerns that US tariffs could disrupt transatlantic supply chains [6]. Economic Data and Monetary Policy - The upcoming US inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decision on potential interest rate cuts later this year [3]. - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicated concerns about inflation pressures from tariffs, but a belief that a rate cut may occur later in the year [3]. - In the UK, inflation has risen, with the CPI at 3.4% in May, and expectations for a potential rate cut by the Bank of England if economic data continues to underperform [7]. Commodity Markets - Oil prices have stabilized, with WTI crude oil rising 2.16% to $68.45 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing 3.02% to $70.36 per barrel, amid concerns over summer supply and demand [4]. - Gold prices have also rebounded, with COMEX gold rising 0.73% to $3356 per ounce, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid trade uncertainties [5]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the US PPI, industrial production, and retail sales data, as well as consumer sentiment surveys [3][9]. - In Europe, the ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany will be released, reflecting the economic outlook amid trade tensions [6].

海外方面，1）全球关税或存升级风险，但对市场扰动或有限。特朗普选择优 先施压的 22 个经济体，除日韩外，均体量偏小、对美国重要程度偏低，可能 是在为后续与更亲密盟友国和更大型经济体谈判争取更多筹码。2）往后看， 值得关注的时点：7.15 美国 6 月 CPI 数据，7.15-8 月初美股 Q2 财报，7.28 财政部 Q3 再融资会议，8.1 和 8.10 美国对等关税变化（非美和中国）。 回到资产端：1）近期的"强美股+弱美元"格局有助于提振非美权益风险偏好 及流动性，且美元只要仍在 95-100 区间即为弱势。2）今年以来全球权益市场 存在轮动特征：德国 DAX、恒生科技➔韩国➔美股、A 股。若随后 1-2 周全球 未现显著利空因素，恒生科技再次向上突破的概率有所增加。3）国内方面， "反内卷"对资产风格的影响暂不显著，在 PPI 同比回正预期出现前，哑铃型 策略依旧有效。 定期报告 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 全球权益轮动，港股或为下阶段焦点 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面， 1）上半年经济增速明显超过全年目标，给了政策端进行经济结构 调整的窗口期。 ...