Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a rapid decline in the safe-haven premium for gold, resulting in a significant drop in gold prices after reaching historical highs [2] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of December 16, the latest quote for London gold is $4311.15 per ounce, reflecting an increase of $6.96 or 0.16% from the previous trading day [1] - On December 15, London gold reached a high of $4353 per ounce, indicating a period of strong upward momentum before the recent decline [2] - The price fluctuated between a high of $4313.00 and a low of $4298.79 during the trading session [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influences - The easing of geopolitical tensions has prompted investors to exit gold positions, contributing to a sharp decline in prices [2] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation and interest rate policies have led to increased market volatility and reduced gold holdings among investors [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The KDJ indicator shows signs of a bearish crossover, and the MACD histogram is shrinking, suggesting a strengthening of bearish sentiment and a potential decrease in upward momentum [3] - Despite the recent pullback, the overall upward trend in gold prices remains intact, indicating that the current decline is likely a phase of adjustment rather than a reversal [3] - Key resistance levels are identified at $4335-$4345, with failure to maintain above this range likely hindering further bullish momentum [3][4] Group 4: Support and Resistance Levels - Important resistance levels are noted at $4350-$4385, with $4350 being a critical pressure point near recent highs [4] - Short-term support is established at $4310, which, if breached, could lead to increased downward pressure [4] - A significant support range is identified between $4266-$4285, where failure to hold could trigger further profit-taking [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][14] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][19] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][23] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1][27] - PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3][31] - Ethylene glycol: Short on rebounds [3][34] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3][37] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3][42] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7][54] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7][58] Report's Core Views - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is easing, and the crude oil market is in an oversupply situation during the off - season, leading to downward pressure on oil prices [1][11] - The price of LPG is dragged down by the cost of crude oil, and the supply - demand situation shows that the refinery's production is increasing, and there is inventory pressure [1][17] - For L, the basis is weakening, the supply is sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural film market is declining, with inventory removal pressure [1][22] - PP needs to pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices, and the industry chain faces high inventory removal pressure [1][26] - PVC has an oversupply contradiction before concentrated maintenance in the upstream and mid - stream, but the cost of raw materials is falling [1][30] - PTA has a relatively tight short - term supply - demand balance, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in January, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [3][32] - Ethylene glycol has a short - term supply improvement, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [3][35] - Methanol's port inventory is decreasing, but the fundamental situation remains weak, with supply pressure and weakening demand [3][39] - Urea has a relatively loose domestic fundamental situation, with high supply and limited demand sustainability, and attention should be paid to exports [3][43] - The price of natural gas has reached a high level, with increasing upward pressure, and the supply and demand situation is affected by geopolitics and seasonal factors [6] - Asphalt's price is affected by the weakening of crude oil cost and the supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in South America [7][52] - Glass has a situation of weak supply reduction and weak demand, and the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream is still high [7][57] - Soda ash has a loose supply pattern, with high inventory and insufficient demand support [7][61] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices weakened, with WTI down 1.34%, Brent down 0.92%, and SC down 0.30% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical support for oil prices is decreasing, and the off - season supply is in excess, with global and US crude oil inventories increasing [11] - **Fundamentals**: Russia's oil production increased slightly in November, and the IEA expects global crude oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil and product inventories have different trends [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - and long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the price is in a low - price range. Short - term trends are weak, and partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended [13] LPG - **Market Review**: On December 15, the PG main contract closed at 4152 yuan/ton, up 0.58% month - on - month [16] - **Basic Logic**: The price is linked to crude oil, with cost - side negatives. Supply is increasing, and there is inventory pressure [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - and long - term, the price has room for compression. Short positions should be held, and attention should be paid to the range of [4150 - 4250] [18] L - **Market Review**: The prices of L contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [20] - **Basic Logic**: The basis is weakening, supply is sufficient, and there is inventory removal pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions, and wait for rebounds to short. Pay attention to the range of [6500 - 6650] [22] PP - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [24] - **Basic Logic**: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics, and the industry chain faces high inventory removal pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions, and wait for rebounds to short. Consider going long on PP processing fees or shorting MTO05. Pay attention to the range of [6200 - 6350] [26] PVC - **Market Review**: The prices of PVC contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [28] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of raw materials is falling, but the oversupply contradiction persists before concentrated maintenance [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4400] [30] PTA - **Market Review**: The prices of PTA contracts decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [31] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is relieved due to high - intensity maintenance, but downstream demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on TA05 at low levels. Pay attention to the range of [4650 - 4710] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The prices of ethylene glycol contracts had different trends, with changes in trading volume and open interest [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are decreasing, demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3580 - 3650] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided - **Basic Logic**: The port inventory is decreasing, but the supply pressure remains, and the demand is slightly weakening [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract is changing hands, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to MA05 [41] Urea - **Market Review**: The prices of urea contracts decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is relatively sufficient, the demand is short - term good but not sustainable, and the inventory is still at a high level [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously short, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on UR05. Pay attention to the range of [1635 - 1655] [45] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On December 15, the NG main contract closed at 4.113 dollars/million British thermal units, down 2.79% month - on - month [48] - **Basic Logic**: The demand is in the peak season, but the price has reached a high level, and the supply is relatively sufficient [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand has support, but the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of [3.860 - 4.239] [49] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On December 15, the BU main contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 0.37% month - on - month [51] - **Basic Logic**: The price is affected by the weakening of crude oil cost and the supply - demand situation [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on short positions due to the uncertainty in South America. Pay attention to the range of [2850 - 2950] [53] Glass - **Market Review**: The prices of glass contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [55] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is difficult to shrink significantly, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream is still high [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short in the short term and wait for rebounds to short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [930 - 980] [57] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The prices of soda ash contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [59] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is loose, the demand support is insufficient, and the inventory is still at a high level [61] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short in the short term and wait for rebounds to short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [1080 - 1130] [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of asphalt remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and funds shortage, failing to effectively release, resulting in a weaker short - term peak season. The overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the medium and long term, the demand will improve as the construction season approaches in autumn and the funds situation eases [2]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil has declined due to the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, alleviating the tight supply expectation of asphalt cost [2]. - The unilateral price of asphalt has weakly corrected, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95% [1]. - On August 15, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3620 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day and 140 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 yuan from the previous week; the North China spot price was 3680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and up 20 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3520 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 60 yuan from the previous week [1][5][8]. 3.2 Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, enterprises with short spot positions can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The supply of asphalt is stable, but demand is affected by rainfall and funds shortage. The factory - warehouse pressure is small, but the social - warehouse destocking is slow, and speculative demand has weakened. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened, and the crack spread remains high [2]. 3.4利多解读 - The low pressure on asphalt factory warehouses provides a basis for manufacturers to support prices [3]. - The demand is in the seasonal peak season [7]. - The low - level start - up and the expectation of catch - up construction in the South [7]. - The atmosphere of anti - involution has created a strong expectation of capacity reduction [7]. 3.5利空解读 - The recent increase in the arrival of Venezuelan Merey crude oil [7]. - The short - term plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand [7]. - The slowdown of social - warehouse destocking and the weakening of the basis [7]. - The consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the start - up rate [7].

中信建投｜周期红利周周谈 摘要 Q&A • 房地产市场呈现复苏迹象，二手房成交量显著增长，重点城市 1-2 月同比 增长约 30%，创三年新高，上海和深圳表现尤为突出，议价空间收窄，表 明市场信心正在恢复。 • 房地产政策稳中求进，精准滴灌，优化土地供给，一二线城市优质地块溢 价率创 2022 年以来新高；专项债用于闲置土地收储，规模预计达 5,000 亿 以上；城市更新加速，多项政策推动需求。 • 房地产企业风险下降，万科通过积极偿债降低风险，新兴城市房地产资产 重估带动开发商表现，房地产板块整体估值有望提高，投资机会显现。 • 建筑业 PMI 受春节影响波动，复工复产后回升，但整体复苏偏弱，关注两 会财政政策，去年中央谷地发放 5,000 亿元，可能用于土储专项债等领域， 财政力度将决定建筑行业整体情况。 • 钾肥价格有望上涨，全球供需收紧，新增产能有限，俄罗斯与白俄罗斯限 产，需求端持续增长，供需缺口显著，A 股上市公司亚钾国际弹性最大， 成长潜力良好。 • 动力煤价格下跌增加火电度电利润，但火电整体弹性下降，建议关注年度 长协签约较好的区域，如上海、安徽等地的一些火电公司，包括南方电网、 申能股份和上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility following the Independence Day holiday, with significant fluctuations in trading volume and price levels, creating a battleground for bulls and bears [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Trading volume in the gold market dropped by 40% due to the early closure of the New York exchange for Independence Day, leading to a liquidity crisis [1]. - Gold prices fluctuated within a narrow range of $3323 to $3330, with a volatility of less than $7, indicating a stagnant market [1]. - A sudden sell-off of 500 contracts pushed prices below the $3320 mark, but aggressive buying from central banks quickly restored prices, highlighting the market's fragility [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows gold prices breaking below the 60-day moving average ($3319) and the 20-day moving average ($3345), indicating a bearish trend [3]. - The 4-hour chart presents a contrasting view, with a long lower shadow at the $3311 low and an RSI divergence suggesting that selling pressure may be waning [3]. - The $3320-$3330 range is identified as a critical battleground, consolidating various technical indicators that could influence future price movements [3]. Group 3: Economic Data Impact - The U.S. Labor Department reported a surprising increase in non-farm payrolls, with 147,000 new jobs added, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 110,000 [5]. - The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since the pandemic, but the private sector only added 74,000 jobs, the lowest since October 2024, indicating underlying economic weakness [5]. - The dollar index surged by 55 points, surpassing the 97.4 mark, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.7 basis points following the employment data release [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors - The gold market is facing three conflicting pressures: diverging policy expectations, easing geopolitical risks, and a surge in central bank gold purchases [5]. - While traders are selling gold in anticipation of delayed interest rate cuts, they are also looking to buy at lower levels due to signs of economic weakness [5]. - Central banks globally, particularly the People's Bank of China, are expected to continue increasing gold reserves, with premiums in the Shanghai gold market rising to $35 per ounce [5]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Traders are advised to employ a "tightrope strategy," placing buy orders at $3323 with a stop-loss at $3316 and a target of $3335, while considering short positions above $3335 [7]. - Attention should be given to potential tariff policies from the U.S., which could influence trading decisions significantly [7]. - The gold-silver ratio has risen to 89.7, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunities as silver prices remain suppressed [7].

三一重工 摘要 • 中国工程机械内销结束三年下跌，2025 年初显著增长，挖掘机销量出现 拐点，预示行业复苏。 • 工程机械出口占上市公司收入重要比例，受益于"一带一路"国家工业化 和城镇化，需求复制中国 2006-2011 年趋势，市场份额提升空间巨大。 • 徐工、三一重工等龙头企业竞争格局优化，注重盈利和现金流，挖掘机价 格小幅提升，费用控制带来销售净利率回升。 • 三一重工盈利能力有望提升，通过调整产品结构和海外去库存减值，股价 存在翻番空间，市值或达 2000 亿人民币。 • 2025 年 2 月挖掘机内销超预期增长，同比增长 51%，预计全年增速超 20%，海外市场持续增长 7%。 • 俄乌冲突缓和、国内老旧城区改造和基建需求改善将推动工程机械行业增 长，持续看好整个板块。 • 三一重工海外市场占比高，经营性现金流强劲，财务稳健，预计 2024- 2026 年利润复合增速 34%，估值有提升空间。 Q&A 工程机械行业在 2023 年和 2024 年的表现如何？未来的趋势是什么？ 根据我们的预测模型，工程机械行业在 2023 年和 2024 年见底，并将进入一 轮反转行情。这一预测得到了数据验证。自 ...

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 02 月 24 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 1 月信贷表现提振风险偏好 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（2 月第 3 周） [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] 2 [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 市场有风险 入市需谨慎 - 1 - [Table_PageHeader] 2025 年 2 月 图表目录 | | | 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。市场方面，国家主席习近平召开 民营企业座谈会，会议 ...