9 月非农数据点评 迟来的指引，摇摆的降息 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 11 月 20 日，美国劳工部（BLS）补发 9 月非农就业报告。9 月新增非农就业人数 11.9 万，远高 于预期的 5.0 万，失业率小幅上行至 4.4%。 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 评论： 图1：9 月非农数据总览 | | | | | 2025年9月 非农数据总览表 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

11月10日，记者从中新(重庆)战略性互联互通示范项目(以下简称中新互联互通项目)实施10周年成效新 闻发布会上获悉，10年来，中新互联互通项目累计签约政府和商业合作项目347个、金额260亿美元，累 计跨境融资金额217亿美元，双方探索形成33项具有首创性、高辨识度的制度型开放成果。 "中新互联互通项目成功构建起中国(重庆)与新加坡'点对点'对接，带动中国西部地区与东盟国家'面对 面'合作的全新格局。"市商务委主任、市中新项目管理局局长章勇武表示，借助中新互联互通项目，越 来越多的重庆企业通过新加坡走向全球市场，而来自新加坡的国际化医疗、教育、文旅资源也走进山城 百姓的日常生活。 互联互通 带动西部 制度创新 中新互联互通项目呈现三大特点 "自2015年11月启动以来，中新互联互通项目突破传统'园区载体'模式，以重庆、新加坡'双枢纽'为核 心，以金融、航空、物流、信息四大现代服务业领域合作为重点，构建起跨区域、跨国界的要素流动通 道。"李岸介绍，比如陆海新通道开通后，重庆到新加坡的铁海联运时长从10天压缩到7天，单箱成本降 低25%，重庆的汽车零部件、农产品等通过通道出口，企业物流成本降了、订单多了，这是传 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian labor market showed strong performance in October, with a net addition of 66,000 jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.1% to 6.9%, marking the second consecutive month of improvement [1][2] - The job growth significantly exceeded market expectations, which anticipated a loss of 20,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.2% [1] - The increase in employment was primarily driven by part-time positions, while full-time jobs remained relatively unchanged. The private sector added 73,000 jobs, indicating a recovery in hiring intentions among businesses [1] Group 2 - Job growth was predominantly concentrated in Ontario, which accounted for 55,000 of the new positions, representing over 80% of the national job increase [2] - Average hourly wages rose by 3.5% year-on-year to CAD 37.06, although the growth rate is still below the peak wage increases seen during inflationary periods [2] - The Canadian job market has experienced significant volatility this year, with a total of 127,000 jobs added in September and October, offsetting a loss of 106,000 jobs in July and August [2]

Core Insights - Guangdong Province has made significant progress in infrastructure construction during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an expected investment exceeding 6 trillion yuan, enhancing the capacity for supporting economic and social development [1][2][3] Infrastructure Development - Transportation has become more convenient with the completion of key projects such as the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Link, Guangshen-Shan High-Speed Railway, and the expansion of Baiyun Airport, resulting in over 3,000 kilometers of high-speed rail and 11,700 kilometers of expressways [1] - The province's port container throughput capacity exceeds 74 million standard containers, and annual passenger throughput at civil airports surpasses 200 million, positioning Guangdong among the top in the nation [1] Energy Security - Major projects like the world's largest hydropower and wind power facilities have been completed, with nearly 3,000 substations and a total power generation capacity exceeding 256 million kilowatts, including a 1.5-fold increase in non-fossil energy generation capacity [2] - The province has built over 7,600 kilometers of oil and gas pipelines and 700,000 public charging stations, achieving full coverage in 1,123 towns, leading the nation in both charging infrastructure and electricity consumption [2] Water Resource Management - Water infrastructure investment has ranked first in the nation for four consecutive years, with over 100 billion yuan invested in 2023 and 2024 [2] - Key projects include the Hanjiang High-Altitude Water Conservancy Hub and the Pearl River Delta water resource allocation, enhancing disaster prevention capabilities and water resource utilization [2] Digital Infrastructure - Guangdong leads in information infrastructure, with 431,000 5G base stations and the largest number of 5G users in the country [3] - The province has also made strides in digitalizing traditional infrastructure, with cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen recognized as national smart manufacturing pilot cities [3]

Group 1 - Fund regular investment is a suitable investment method for lazy investors, and it is important to prepare before starting and to create a solid investment plan [2][3] - There are four methods of regular investment, and it is essential to determine which one is most suitable for individual needs and how to take profits [2] Group 2 - Chinese concept stocks refer to companies listed in the US or Hong Kong but primarily operating in mainland China, and they are considered RMB-denominated assets [5] - The technology sector is a thematic concept that encompasses various industries, including telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, and financial technology [6][8] - Internet companies hold a significant market value, particularly in the Hong Kong technology stock sector [10] - The China Securities Index Company is the largest index company in mainland China, while the Hang Seng Index Company is the largest in Hong Kong [11] - The number of index funds tracking Chinese concept stocks is relatively small, with only one fund for each major index [12] - Recent years have seen stricter requirements for index composition, with individual stock weightings generally kept below 10% [13] - The CSI developed the Hong Kong Technology Index, which includes 50 constituent stocks and has been operational since 2014 [14] - The Hang Seng Index Company launched the Hang Seng Technology Index in 2020, which includes over 30 constituent stocks and incorporates hard technology sectors like semiconductors [15]

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to experience high volatility, with major indices showing mixed performance this week. The Shanghai Composite Index closed lower, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices recorded gains [1][4]. - The market appears to be entering a bottleneck phase after a sustained rally, particularly due to the significant rise in technology stocks, making further increases challenging [1][12]. Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance at the 3900-point level, reaching a high of 3899.96 points before dropping to a low of 3801 points, ultimately closing at 3831.66 points, down 1.15% for the day and 1.3% for the week [4][12]. - The Shenzhen Component Index hit a new high of 13328.1 points but fell to 12915.97 points, closing at 13075.66 points, down 1.06% for the day but up 1.14% for the week [6][12]. - The ChiNext Index reached a high of 3168.68 points before closing at 3095.85 points, down 1.64% for the day but up 2.34% for the week, marking a seven-week upward trend [6][12]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector remains the primary driver of the recent market rally, with the CSI Information Technology Index rising by 2.59% and the CSI Semiconductor Index increasing by 6.48% this week [12]. - In contrast, the financial and pharmaceutical sectors, which performed well in the first half of the year, have seen declines, with the CSI Pharmaceutical Index down 1.38% and the CSI Financial Index down 3.71% this week [12]. - The banking sector has experienced a three-month decline, with the CSI Bank Index and Securities Insurance Index both down 4%, significantly impacting the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index [12]. Stock Movements - Low-priced stocks under 4 yuan have shown remarkable performance this week, with several stocks like Yongtai Energy and Shanghai Construction rising significantly, with Shanghai Construction increasing by 31.7% despite a drop on the last trading day [10][13]. - The increase in high-priced stocks has been notable, with the number of stocks priced over 100 yuan rising sharply, and the number of stocks priced over 1000 yuan doubling [13].

Group 1 - China's total R&D personnel ranks first in the world, with total R&D investment expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, a 48% increase from 2020, and R&D intensity reaching 2.68%, surpassing the EU average [5][9] - Basic research funding has reached 249.7 billion yuan, growing over 70% since 2020, with significant achievements in quantum technology, life sciences, material sciences, and space sciences [6][9] - The national comprehensive innovation capability has improved, moving from 14th place in 2020 to 10th place in 2024, reflecting accelerated integration of technological and industrial innovation [9] Group 2 - The construction of the national laboratory system is progressing steadily, with national research institutions and high-level research universities enhancing their research capabilities [7] - Major innovation clusters are emerging in regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou ranking first in the global innovation cluster list [8] Group 3 - China has built approximately 4.6 million 5G base stations, maintaining a global lead in technology and user numbers, facilitating digital upgrades across various industries [13] - The country has achieved the highest global sales of new energy vehicles for ten consecutive years, with total sales surpassing 40 million units [14] Group 4 - In the field of artificial intelligence, multiple general models have emerged that reach international advanced levels, with some achieving accuracy rates exceeding 95% [15] - The domestic brain-computer interface technology has shown significant advancements, helping patients with paralysis to stand and walk, and has been commercially implemented in 400 hospitals across eight countries [17] Group 5 - The total data volume of 20 national scientific data centers has increased fivefold compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, exceeding 270 petabytes [19] - A total of 147,000 high-value research instruments are now managed on a national network platform, available for public sharing [21]

Group 1 - The total R&D investment in 2024 is expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan [4] - The R&D intensity reached 2.68% in 2020, surpassing the average level of EU countries [5] - The number of high-tech enterprises has increased by 83% compared to 2020, exceeding 500,000 [14] Group 2 - China ranks first globally in the number of "lighthouse factories," accounting for over 40% [19] - The national comprehensive innovation capability ranking improved from 14th in 2020 to 10th in 2024 [10] - Approximately 4 million base stations have been built, maintaining a global lead in technology and user numbers [22] Group 3 - Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China have surpassed 4 million, maintaining the global lead for 10 consecutive years [25] - The domestic brain pacemaker has been fully commercialized, helping over 3,000 Parkinson's disease patients improve motor functions [28] Group 4 - China has achieved significant original results in quantum technology, life sciences, and space science, with basic research funding increasing by over 70% [8]

Group 1 - The Chinese government is focusing on high-quality completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" by strengthening key core technology breakthroughs and application of results through technological innovation [1] - The country has achieved significant progress in empowering traditional industries to upgrade through technological innovation, particularly in high-end equipment and advanced manufacturing sectors [3] - China leads globally in the number of "lighthouse factories," accounting for over 40% of the total, indicating a strong shift towards intelligent manufacturing [3] Group 2 - In the information sector, approximately 4.6 million 5G base stations have been established in China, showcasing the rapid development of telecommunications infrastructure [3] - The renewable energy sector has seen continuous growth, with new installations of photovoltaic and wind power exceeding 100 million kilowatts for four consecutive years, contributing to global carbon reduction goals [3] - Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China have surpassed 40 million, maintaining the world's highest production and sales volume for ten consecutive years [3] Group 3 - In the field of artificial intelligence, several domestic general models have reached international advanced levels, with some achieving accuracy rates exceeding 95% [5] - Breakthroughs in humanoid robotics and key technologies such as multi-modal perception and brain-cerebellum models have laid a solid foundation for the development of a trillion-dollar industry [5] - Brain-computer interface technology has shown promising results, helping paraplegic patients to stand and walk, and blind individuals to regain light perception, indicating advancements in health technology [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China has continuously strengthened key core technology breakthroughs and application of results, leading to positive outcomes in technological innovation and new quality productivity development [1] Group 2 - Technological innovation is empowering the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, with significant advancements in high-end equipment and advanced manufacturing sectors [5] - China has independently developed the "Jinghua" 16.07-meter ultra-large diameter shield machine and designed the first deep-sea drilling ship "Dream" [5] - The number of "lighthouse factories" in China ranks first globally, accounting for over 40% of the total [5] Group 3 - In the information sector, approximately 4.6 million 5G base stations have been established in China [5] - In the renewable energy sector, China has continuously broken world records for the efficiency of photovoltaic silicon batteries, with new installations of solar and wind power exceeding 100 million kilowatts for four consecutive years [5] - Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China have surpassed 40 million, maintaining the world's highest production and sales for ten consecutive years [5] Group 4 - China is proactively laying out frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence and brain-computer interfaces to create new advantages and open new tracks for future industries [5] Group 5 - In the field of artificial intelligence, multiple general models have emerged in China that reach international advanced levels, with some models achieving accuracy rates exceeding 95% [8] - Breakthroughs in humanoid robot technology and key technologies such as multi-modal perception and brain-cerebellum models have been achieved, laying a solid foundation for the development of a trillion-level industry [8] Group 6 - In the brain-computer interface field, advancements have enabled paraplegic patients to stand and walk, and blind individuals to regain light perception; domestically produced brain stimulators have achieved full commercialization, becoming a new driving force for high-quality development in population health [8]