海外投资者大举买入日本长期国债的策略正面临严重挫折，本周30年期日债收益率飙升至3.2%以上的 历史新高。 日本央行自1月以来未再加息，持续通胀再次冲击长期债券前景。截至周四，彭博长期日本国债美元对 冲指数今年已下跌逾7%，海外投资者今年前7个月创纪录投入9.3万亿日元的资金正遭受重创。 作为全球第三大债券市场，日本债市动荡的影响正向全球蔓延。随着日本央行取消收益率曲线控制机 制，这一曾长期充当全球借贷成本锚定器的政策工具消失，进一步加剧了全球固定收益市场的不稳定。 面对持续通胀和财政赤字扩大的共同担忧，主要债券市场今年多次与日本债市同步波动，长期收益率的 飙升放大了全球市场的恐慌情绪。 海外资金遭遇"价值陷阱" Insight Investment基金经理Brendan Murphy去年底发现30年期日本国债的投资机会时，认为这是一笔不 容错过的交易。通过购买收益率接近历史高位的30年期日债，并配合利用美日利差的外汇衍生品，这项 交易承诺每年7%的丰厚回报。 然而现实证明这一策略遭遇惨败。Murphy承认"我们仍认为它非常有吸引力，但目前并不奏效"。 PGIM Fixed Income首席投资策略师Robe ...

一、引言 2018年4月，《关于规范金融机构资产管理业务的指导意见》（资管新规）正式实施，推动银行理财业 务全面进入净值化转型阶段。新规之前，理财产品以资金池模式运作，设定预期收益并依赖刚性兑付， 风险由银行体系隐性承担。这种模式在表面平稳的水面下积聚了大量暗流，掩盖了不断累积的期限错配 和信用风险。 新规要求打破刚兑，禁止资金池运作，实行独立建账、穿透管理和期限匹配，将风险定价权重新交还市 场。核心措施之一是统一估值方式：摊余成本法逐步让位于市值法，产品净值需实时反映资产价格波 动。对风险偏好较低的个人投资者而言，这意味着理财产品不再是静态的预期收益型资产，而成为在市 场波动中起伏的动态资产。 这一制度变革不仅是资产估值方法的调整，更改变了理财机构的资产配置逻辑，尤其是对久期策略的选 择，从而影响不同久期与资质的债券信用利差。围绕这一问题，研究聚焦于2022年初这一净值化元年开 启时点，将估值方式调整作为外生冲击，利用双重差分（DID）方法分析政策前后信用利差的变化与机 制。 二、政策背景与市场环境 ①理财净值化转型的演进。理财估值方式的改革可划分为四个阶段：资管新规发布前，多数理财产品为 非净值型，采用摊 ...

自2005年亚洲开发银行和国际金融公司首开先河发行熊猫债券以来，这一具有鲜明中国标识的跨境人民 币债券已稳步走过二十年历程。它不仅是连接在岸与离岸市场的重要融资工具，更是人民币国际化进程 中不可或缺的组成部分。尤其是近年来，随着中国金融市场的持续开放、人民币国际地位的提升，以及 全球宏观环境的变化，熊猫债券市场显著扩容，产品结构日益多元，制度框架不断完善，已成为国际发 行人参与中国资本市场、国内外投资者配置人民币资产的重要渠道。 截至2025年7月，熊猫债市场累计发行规模突破1万亿元，2024年全年发行量达到1948亿元，创下历史新 高。特别值得注意的是，2025年前7个月的发行量已突破1100亿元，预计全年有望触及2000亿元大关。 市场参与主体也从最初的多边开发机构，逐步扩展至外国政府、境外金融机构和非金融企业，覆盖亚 洲、欧洲、美洲等多个地区，产品类型亦涌现出绿色、碳中和、可持续发展挂钩债券等创新品类，显示 出极强的市场活性与政策响应能力。 这一系列成果的背后，既是市场内在需求的推动，也离不开监管部门持续优化的制度供给。例如，2016 年中国人民银行"258号文"放开募集资金跨境使用限制，2018年"1 ...

利率 - 低利率、强权益，怎么办？20250825 摘要 当前长端利率在 1.5%-2%区间震荡，参考日本和美国经验，低利率环 境下长期震荡或将持续，经济增长需保持合理期限溢价，全社会投资回 报不足以吸引资金流入债市。 中国与海外发达国家不同之处在于资金流动受限及维持正常货币政策， 未实施 QE 或 YCC，导致期限利差压缩。房地产和基建融资需求下降加 剧利差压缩，降准降息仍可能带动长端利率下行。 尽管利率较低，降准降息仍可能带来债市机会。股市表现对债市有扰动， 但中期仍看好长期利率下行。关注重要政治会议对市场情绪的潜在催化 作用。 低利率环境下，保险公司面临资金运用挑战，需增加高股息权益类资产 配置以覆盖负债端成本，海外发达国家亦采取类似策略，利率每下降 1%，高股息权益配置比例上升十几个百分点。 日本 GPI 养老金在长端利率降至 1%以下时，调整配置基准为股债各占 50%，国内外资产各占 50%，反映低利率环境下增加权益类资产以获 取收益的必要性。 Q&A 今年债券市场的整体表现如何？未来利率走势可能会怎样？ 今年（2025 年）债券市场整体表现较为震荡。年初十年期国债利率在经历了 一波牛市后，最低降至 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ——利率周报（2025.8.18-2025.8.24） 投资要点： 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 国内债市回调，美国 9 月降息概率上升 报告核心观点：1-7 月全国一般公共预算收入同比仅微增 0.1%，税收收入同比 -0.3%，反映经济修复动能偏弱；财政支出同比+3.4%，社保就业支出高增 9.8%， 显示政策托底力度加大。LPR 连续四个月按兵不动（1 年期 3.0%、5 年期 3.5%）， 叠加美联储释放 9 月降息信号，国内资金利率有望保持低位，资金面或持续宽松。 本周中观数据显示消费与交运延续复苏，但地产链持续低迷，工业品价格分化。债 市调整主因"股债跷跷板"效应及机构行为扰动，随着债基及券商自营持仓的超长 债转移到险资等配置盘上，后续股市对债市的扰动或将明显减弱，债市预计将逐步 回归基本面、资金面定价。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 宏观要闻：25 年 1 ...

摘要 随着我国经济发展阶段的演进以及实体经济融资模式的结构性转变，债券市场正逐渐成为我国金融体系稳定运行的核心领域。理论 与实践均表明，流动性是金融稳定的关键要素，而债券市场的稳定性高度依赖于各类投资者资金来源的稳定性。鉴于我国债券市场 的独特交易特征，本文创新性地提出了三横三纵的债券交易多级网络结构。这一结构不仅能够体现金融市场与金融机构的顺周期行 为共振，还可以清晰刻画冲击传导路径。通过突出跨市场与跨机构之间流动性的相互影响，该多级网络结构为债券市场的脆弱性评 估与风险传染机制研究提供了一个全新的分析框架。 关键词：债券市场 金融稳定 流动性 交易网络 01 债券市场对于金融稳定具有重要意义 债券市场上通宏观政策、中贯金融体系、下连微观主体，是现代金融体系的重要支柱。从债券市场规模来看，我国已位居全球第 二，是名副其实的债券大国。 从一级市场对宏观经济的支持来看，债券市场已逐渐成为实体经济重要的融资渠道。根据我国社会融资规模数据，政府债券与企业 债券1余额占社会融资规模存量的比重稳步提升，截至2025年3月末，这一占比已近三成。尤其是政府债券在社会融资规模中的作用 愈发重要（盛松成等，2024）。债券市场 ...

智利《三点钟报》8月18日报道，根据智利债券市场企业债券发行报告，截至2025年6 月，34家本地发行主体过去一年共发行4.8万亿比索（约合50.31亿美元）债券，增长 36%，发行量达2019年以来最高水平，但发行主体数低于疫情前水平，市场总体呈现出 持续复苏的态势。2024年AA-级及以上债券发行比例创历史新高，占当年发行总量的 94%。大规模或信用评级更优的发行主体更受市场的青睐，与经济收缩周期、持续通胀 和全球高利率的宏观经济环境相符。但目前这一趋势开始出现逆转迹象，评级为AA-或 更高的债券比例下降至88%，尽管按历史标准来看占比仍然很高，但也反映出市场对风 险略高的发行人的适度开放。 （原标题：智利上半年债务发行量增至疫情前水平） ...

多家机构分析指出，当前债市调整源于多重因素叠加：短期货币政策维持不降息基调主导市场情绪，税 期来临引发资金面扰动，权益市场回暖推升风险偏好，叠加纯债基金赎回压力，共同构成债市短期承压 的环境。 多因素交织致债市连续调整 8月20日收盘，上证指数上涨1.04%，报3766.21，创10年来新高。然而，股债跷跷板效应尽显，债市表 现震荡。 8月以来，债市整体表现偏弱。从2025年8月11日—17日一周情况看，债市走弱，长债收益率大幅上行。 鑫元基金方面指出，当前债市整体处于"强风偏、弱现实"之中。近期宏观经济数据呈现阶段性调整态 势，但债市对权益和商品市场风险偏好更为敏感，对基本面走弱则有"脱敏"，导致债市出现连续调整。 鑫元基金方面认为，当前债市属于调整而非反转，短期或仍受风险偏好的扰动，中长期可以关注超跌带 来的投资机会。 资金面的扰动进一步加剧了债市的波动。东方金诚方面亦分析指出，从资金面来看，日前央行公布的二 季度货币政策执行报告强调"落实落细适度宽松的货币政策"，但同时提及"防空转"，意味着央行将适度 呵护流动性，预计短期内资金面将维持均衡态势，对短债形成支撑。从基本面来看，近期经济数据虽显 疲软，但市 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **debt market** and **government debt management** in **Guizhou Province** within the context of the broader **Chinese economy**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Debt Cycle and Government Leverage** The current debt cycle is in a clearing phase, with the government increasing leverage to replace some corporate and household debt, leading to a significant rise in government bonds supporting social financing growth [2][5][6] 2. **Impact of Local Government Bond Issuance** After September, the issuance of local government bonds is expected to decrease, making the improvement of household and corporate financing crucial for future economic performance [2][5] 3. **Monetary Policy Outlook** The monetary policy is currently in a waiting phase, with expectations of new easing measures potentially being introduced by the end of Q3 or early Q4 2025. The focus remains on maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to lower social financing costs [3][4][6] 4. **Short-term Liquidity Risks** There is currently low risk in short-term liquidity, with funding prices remaining stable and consistent with 2022 levels. Structural monetary policy and reduced government bond issuance have limited liquidity shocks [7] 5. **Bond Market Volatility** Recent volatility in the bond market is characterized by widening yield spreads and increased fluctuations in long-term yields, with daily fluctuations in 10-year and 30-year government bonds exceeding 3 basis points [8] 6. **Long-term Yield Trends** Long-term yield adjustments show a trend of gradually decreasing peaks, with recent high points around 1.80%, down from nearly 1.9% earlier in the year [9] 7. **Guizhou's Debt Management Progress** Guizhou has made significant progress in managing local government debt through various measures, including the use of high-interest debt replacement strategies [10][16] 8. **Government Fund Revenue Performance** Guizhou's government fund revenue has remained robust, with consistent annual figures exceeding 2,000 billion since 2020, indicating effective fiscal management despite overall economic challenges [12] 9. **Investment Opportunities in Guizhou** Post-debt resolution, Guizhou presents investment opportunities, particularly in traditional urban investment projects and new market-oriented entities, which are expected to receive substantial support [21][22] Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Regional Economic Disparities** There are notable differences in economic and fiscal strength between Guizhou's major cities, such as Guiyang and Zunyi, affecting their debt issuance capabilities [13] 2. **Guizhou's Industrial Development** Despite perceptions of economic weakness, Guizhou is actively pursuing industrial development, with local governments shifting focus from debt resolution to fostering new financing needs and supporting local enterprises [20] 3. **Non-standard Debt Replacement** The replacement of non-standard debt is progressing slowly, with expectations for implementation starting in 2025, indicating a cautious approach to managing complex financial instruments [17] 4. **Bank Lending Practices** Major state-owned banks dominate the lending landscape in Guizhou, with limited participation from smaller commercial banks, reflecting a concentration of financial resources [18] 5. **Special Debt Issuance** Guizhou has achieved significant results in issuing special refinancing bonds, ranking among the top provinces in terms of issuance volume, which is critical for managing fiscal pressures [19]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the bond market and its current dynamics, with a focus on the impact of economic conditions and monetary policy on bond yields and investment strategies [1][3][20]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Sentiment Shift**: There has been a recent shift in sentiment among buyers in the bond market, moving from bullish to bearish due to concerns over rising prices, stock market volatility, and bank redemptions of bond funds. However, some institutions have reduced duration to one year, potentially signaling the start of a new market trend [1][3]. - **Net Selling of Long-Duration Bonds**: From July 21 to August 15, broker proprietary trading and bond funds net sold 250 billion and 260 billion respectively in interest rate bonds, with over 100 billion in bonds with a maturity of over 20 years, indicating a significant reduction in duration by market participants [1][4]. - **Increased Demand from Specific Institutions**: While brokers and funds sold long-duration bonds, rural commercial banks and insurance companies, particularly large life insurance firms, emerged as major buyers, indicating a perceived value in long-duration bonds [1][5]. - **Stock Market Dynamics**: The stock market's recent rise is characterized as a "chip game," with little correlation to the economic fundamentals. The CSI 2000 index is significantly overvalued compared to 30-year government bonds, suggesting that the stock market's rise is primarily driven by retail investor activity rather than corporate performance [1][6]. - **Economic Downturn Risks**: There are increasing concerns about economic pressures in the second half of the year, with July data showing a decline in consumption and investment, alongside export challenges. This may lead to potential monetary easing measures such as rate cuts [1][7][10]. - **Future Economic Outlook**: The economic outlook remains pessimistic, with expectations of a decline in the 10-year government bond yield to 1.5% due to reduced consumer subsidies, declining exports, and a weak real estate market [1][7][20]. - **Impact of Monetary Policy**: The bond market is expected to benefit from a continuation of loose monetary policy, with a potential resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank, a decline in bank funding costs, and a peak in government bond issuance already passed [1][11][20]. - **Growth in Wealth Management Products**: The scale of bank wealth management products has seen significant growth, with an increase of over 2 trillion in July, creating substantial demand for credit bonds and potentially driving a new wave in the bond market [2][13]. Other Important Considerations - **Bank Funding Costs and Bond Yields**: Bank funding costs are projected to decrease to around 1.6% by the fourth quarter, enhancing the attractiveness of 10-year government bonds, which currently yield approximately 1.7% [1][12]. - **Credit Market Dynamics**: The growth in wealth management products is expected to lead to increased demand for credit bonds, despite some concerns about net asset value fluctuations [1][13]. - **International Trade Factors**: Ongoing trade tensions and international negotiations, particularly between the U.S. and Russia, introduce uncertainties that could impact China's economic and financial landscape [1][17][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the bond market, economic outlook, and the implications of monetary policy and market dynamics.