证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 13 日 关注税期扰动下央行的配合程度 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 核心观点 预计在央行短期逆回购投放以及买断式逆回购共同配合下，税期资金波动可能较小。 ❑ 流动性：资金小幅收紧，未来一周关注税期扰动 过去一周，资金明显收紧，银行体系净融出规模也明显减少。受到跨季后央行持 续净回笼影响，大行净融出规模回落至 4.65 万亿，周四可以看到全市场资金情绪 明显收紧；但是周五资金紧张程度缓解，临近税期的背景下，或是出于市场对月 中央行买断式逆回购落地的期待。 未来一周，需关注周一及周二政府债净缴款扰动、周三及周四税期走款扰动，周 内资金并不平静；但是，预计在央行短期逆回购投放以及买断式逆回购共同配合 下，资金波动可能较小。 ❑ 机构行为：交易盘需求走弱，普信债和二永债主要非银买盘减少 过去一周，交易盘卖债，配置盘承接；以基金为代表的主要非银买盘净买入普信 债和二级债规模明显减弱；目前债基久期还在震荡抬升，但是在资金收紧和对税 期的忌惮下，市场加杠杆需求冲高回落。 展望后续，资金和权益市场对于债市的扰动增加，而前期基金 ...

专题研究 2025 年 半 年 报 （2025 年 7 月） 买断式逆回购首次月初预告，流动性改 善关注短端利率机会 中美关税博弈阶段性缓和，短期内收益率 或阶段性上行，2025 年 5 月 新一轮增量金融政策的四大关注——5 月7 号国新办发布会点评，2025 年 5 月 利率债研究 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 王 晨 chwang01@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 研究院院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 全面降准或率先落地，关税博弈下收益率 高波动或延续，2025 年 4 月 三问 2025 年特别国债——全国两会精神 学习系列之三，2025 年 3 月 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731； gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 大而美法案通过外部环境仍复杂 降准降息可期利率难改下行趋势 ——2025 年上半年货币政策与利率债回顾与下半年展望 本期要点 收益率或小幅上行,2022 年 11 月 【货币政策及利率债 2022 年前三季度回顾与下阶段 展望 ...

地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 2025 年 5 月 1 9 日—5 月 23 日 总第 563 期 信用利差周报 【信用利差周报2025年第16期】政治局会 议强调四稳，再提创新推出债市"科技版" 释放哪些信号? 2025-4-29 【信用利差周报2025年第15期】财政部启 动超长期特别国债发行，交易商协会发布 估值指引优化估值生态 2025-4-22 2025 年第 19 期 债券市场研究 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 侯天成 tchhou@ccxi.com.cn 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【信用利差周报2025年第18期】货币政策 报告强调优化债市结构与制度安排，债券 收益率走势分化 2025-5-20 【信用利差周报2025年第17期】新规落地 后科创债密集发行，中美关税大幅互降 2025-5-13 【信用利差周报2025年第14期】美债遭遇 大规模抛售，四部门发文推动债券融资支 持体育产业 2025 ...

本报讯(记者毛艺融)数据显示，截至6月30日，上交所累计已有53只高成长产业债成功落地。目前多家 企业相继完成高成长产业债的发行，发行规模合计373亿元，在债券市场中小发行人、民营企业间迅速 引发热议。同时，年内已有80余家非银机构参与该产品投资，高成长产业债已成为各类投资机构增厚收 益的重要选择。 高成长产业债的蓬勃发展吸引了市场参与者的关注。据悉，上交所建立了全链条的高成长产业债服务团 队，对有良好的偿债意愿和信用记录，无财务造假的实体企业，创设"交易所搭台，市场主体唱戏"的服 务模式。一方面，上交所推动中介机构优化产业企业立项标准，鼓励证券公司积极承销产业企业债券； 另一方面，上交所建立了上证路演、投融交流会、组织调研等多层次投融对接支持机制，帮助投资机构 增进对企业的认识，挖掘产业企业的投资价值，努力为企业营造更友好的融资环境。 上交所债券部相关负责人介绍，在信息披露方面，高成长产业债要求发行人以偿债能力为核心，提高信 息披露的及时性、针对性，鼓励发行人通过高频次披露核心财务数据指标、强化行业特定信息披露等， 使投资者能够及时掌握企业经营动态与偿债能力。 在投资者保护方面，前述负责人介绍，企业在发行高 ...

【导读】 债券通"南向通"扩容，基金、券商等布局香港债券市场渠道便利化 中国基金报记者 吴娟娟 中国人民银行金融市场司副司长江会芬日前宣布三项对外开放优化措施，其中包括完善债券 通"南向通"运行机制，支持更多境内投资者投资离岸债券市场，将扩大境内投资者范围至券 商、基金、保险、理财等4类非银机构。相关措施将于2025年8月25日生效。 债券通"南向通"扩容后，基金、券商等非银机构对境外债券的布局便利化。有机构预测，机 构类型扩容之后，债券通"南向通"年度额度或也将扩容。 境内投资者布局境外债券渠道便利化 债券通"南向通"扩容前，其面向的内地投资机构包含两类：首先是41家银行类金融机构，均 为中国人民银行公开市场业务一级交易商。此外，合格境内机构投资者（QDII）和人民币合 格境内机构投资者（RQDII）也可通过"南向通"开展境外债券投资。在债券通"南向通"安排 下，内地投资机构的交易对手方为香港金融管理局指定的"南向通"做市商。 景顺董事总经理、亚太区固定收益主管黄嘉诚表示，债券"南向通" 扩容为非银机构拓宽了全 球资产配置渠道，有助于构建跨市场、跨币种的多元化投资组合，提升资产配置灵活性和收 益潜力。多币种 ...

Group 1: Financial Market Developments - The People's Bank of China is actively researching measures to promote the RMB bond market as a global high-quality liquid asset [1] - The central bank aims to enhance cross-border investment and financing convenience, including establishing a one-stop account opening platform for foreign investors [1] - As of May, 835 foreign institutional investors have entered the interbank bond market through the Bond Connect, with a total of 1,169 foreign investors from nearly 80 countries and regions [5] Group 2: Offshore Repo Market Expansion - The PBOC plans to optimize the offshore repo business mechanism under the Bond Connect to facilitate liquidity management for foreign investors [2] - The scope of tradable currencies for offshore repos will expand from RMB to include USD, EUR, HKD, and other currencies [2] - The Hong Kong Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) will adopt international practices by removing the freeze on pledged securities to enhance liquidity [2] Group 3: Early Childhood Education Initiatives - Seven departments in China have jointly issued opinions to accelerate the construction of a universal childcare service system, establishing a "1+N" model [3][4] - The "1" refers to a comprehensive childcare service center, while "N" includes various forms of childcare services to meet diverse community needs [3] - The initiative includes providing free or low-cost facilities for childcare services, utilizing existing community resources [4] Group 4: Zero-Carbon Park Development - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have issued a notice to support the construction of zero-carbon parks [8][9] - The initiative encourages local governments to provide financial support for zero-carbon projects through special bonds and long-term credit from policy banks [8] - The plan includes promoting renewable energy development and direct green electricity supply models in industrial parks [9] Group 5: AI Industry Support - Hangzhou is soliciting opinions on measures to support the industrialization of brain-like intelligence projects [10] - The city aims to strengthen the innovation chain around the brain-like intelligence industry and support companies in scaling up [10] - The initiative encourages the development of core technological capabilities with independent intellectual property rights [10] Group 6: Government Cloud Market Growth - The IDC report indicates that China's government cloud market is projected to reach 93.94 billion RMB in 2024, with an 18.4% year-on-year growth [11] - The dedicated government cloud market is expected to grow by 19.0%, reaching 66.33 billion RMB [11] - The public government cloud market is anticipated to grow by 12.2%, reaching 17.24 billion RMB [11]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced new measures to enhance the Bond Connect program, particularly the "southbound" channel, to facilitate offshore investors' access to RMB liquidity and strengthen Hong Kong's position as an offshore RMB business center [1][2]. Group 1: New Measures and Optimizations - The PBOC will improve the operational mechanism of the Bond Connect "southbound" channel, allowing more domestic investors to invest in offshore bond markets, expanding the range of domestic investors to include securities firms, funds, insurance, and wealth management institutions [1][2]. - The offshore repurchase business mechanism will be optimized, allowing for multi-currency transactions including USD, EUR, and HKD, and simplifying processes such as the opening of bond accounts [2][5]. - The PBOC plans to introduce cross-border bond repurchase business at an appropriate time, enhancing liquidity management for offshore investors [2][5]. Group 2: Development of Offshore RMB Market - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission aims to develop the fixed income and currency markets, with a focus on RMB fixed income products, increasing the issuance of government bonds in Hong Kong [2][3]. - There is an emphasis on enhancing the liquidity of the secondary bond market and developing more attractive derivative products to diversify risk management tools available in Hong Kong [3][4]. - The establishment of a commercial repurchase market for offshore government bonds is being considered to better utilize these bonds as financing tools and promote secondary market trading [3][4]. Group 3: Future Directions and Infrastructure - The PBOC is actively researching additional measures for the opening of the bond market, aiming to make RMB bonds a globally recognized high-quality liquid asset [5]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will enhance market liquidity and risk management while broadening investment channels [5]. - The development of robust infrastructure for offshore RMB products is crucial for maintaining market stability and providing efficient trading and financing platforms for investors and financial institutions [5].

中证鹏元研发部高级研究员李席丰表示，债券通"南向通"扩容将带来四方面影响：一是扩大市场参与主 体类型，丰富投资需求；二是推动香港与内地债市在规则和产品层面融合发展；三是通过优化离岸人民 币债券回购、支持多币种债券结算等措施，提高交易结算效率；四是增强香港作为国际金融中心的吸引 力，提升中国金融市场在国际上的认知度与影响力。 从人民币资产层面看，李席丰认为，债券通"南向通"扩容有望增加人民币计价债券的境外配置需求，同 时丰富人民币资产的投资品种，推动人民币在跨境投资中的使用，为人民币国际化拓展更多实际应用场 景。而对于优化离岸人民币债券回购业务，东方金诚研究发展部执行总监于丽峰表示，允许逆回购方将 收到的债券二次质押融资，能够盘活作为担保品的离岸人民币债券，提高逆回购方的资金使用效率，有 利于进一步提高离岸人民币债券的流动性和投资吸引力。 "这都将推动境内债市基础设施与国际市场进一步接轨。"董希淼表示，从长期来看，债券通的优化将形 成"市场活力—制度升级—货币竞争力"的良性循环，推动中国金融开放向更深层次迈进。建议金融管理 部门应加快建立与开放程度相匹配的监管体系，完善跨境资本流动的监测机制，同时坚持合格投资者 ...

Group 1 - The report discusses the short covering strategy in the bond market, specifically how the borrowing balance of individual bonds relative to other bonds of the same maturity can lead to downward pressure on interest rates [2][3][19] - The borrowing balance of a specific bond typically follows a pattern where it starts at zero upon issuance, increases as it becomes an active bond, peaks, and then declines as it transitions to a less active status [19][20] - When the borrowing amount of an active bond is significantly lower than that of a less active bond, and if interest rates decline, short sellers of the less active bond will need to cover their positions, leading to additional buying and compression of the yield spread between the two bonds [3][19][20] Group 2 - The report analyzes the practical application of the short covering strategy on key maturities, including 10Y government bonds, 10Y policy bank bonds, and 30Y government bonds, concluding that the 10Y policy bank bond shows the best results [6][31][40] - The 10Y policy bank bond's active bond (250210) switched on May 27, with the less active bond (250205) showing a borrowing amount of approximately 140 billion, which later equalized around 700 billion, while the yield spread compressed from 4-5 basis points to 1.2 basis points [6][31][40] - The analysis indicates that the 30Y government bond's short covering strategy results are less favorable than the 10Y policy bank bond due to greater sensitivity to yield spread expectations and less significant changes in borrowing amounts [40][41]

摘要 2025 年二季度央行货币政策显著转向配合财政政策，资金中枢下移， 但信贷边际变化和央行态度将影响资金宽松持续性，7 月中下旬税期带 来流动性压力，预计三季度信贷增长偏离宏观运行轨道概率不高，货币 政策难完全宽松。 三季度地方政府专项债和国债总供给量预计 1.1-1.2 万亿，八九月份增 至 1.4-1.5 万亿，央行或买国债应对流动性问题，政策性金融工具杠杆 效应或收敛，低于 2022 年水平。 2025 年保险资金因寿险保费增速放缓，对纯债需求减少，下半年难有 作为；自营类资产也面临类似情况，需关注品种差异和结构性机会，寻 找适合配置的新增量资金。 当前利率曲线空间节奏需后移，降息预期或在 9 月后形成。信用供给释 放有限，关注科创板块等特定领域，需深入挖掘结构性机会，10 年国债 标尺券空间若不打开，将限制利率曲线发展。 2025 年农商行交易活跃度下降，低利率高波动环境下，投资者更多权 衡不同取向和战略选择，而非频繁交易。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）市场流动性状况如何，央行货币政策对市场有何影响？ 固收 债市或仍在做多窗口 20250707 今年（2025 年），市场流动性状况总体上呈现易松难 ...