文字早评 2026/01/13 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、中国机电商会：中欧成功推动电动汽车反补贴案实现"软着陆"；欧委会承诺，符合条件的企业可 用价格承诺替代反补贴征税； 2、力鸿一号完成首次亚轨道飞行试验，其运送的返回式载荷舱顺利着陆完成回收，这是国内商业航天 首次百公里亚轨道伞降回收试验； 3、脑机海河实验室：在航空航天领域开发五代空间站在轨脑机交互系统，完成人类首次"太空脑机接 口实验"； 4、多个有色及贵金属期货品种价格创新高。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.01%/-0.19%/-0.33%/-1.14%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.30%/0.11%/-0.15%/-2.01%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/-0.03%/-0.55%/-3.02%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.06%/-0.14%/-0.11%/-0.33%。 【策略观点】 年初增量资金入场，融资规模大幅走高，市场成交量快速放大。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周一，TL ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by China's economy, highlighting a disconnect between macroeconomic data and the micro-level experiences of the populace [3][4][5] - It emphasizes that the public is not unable to understand the complexities of economic development but is unwilling to accept a reality that is masked by false data [4][5] Group 2 - Guangdong Province has officially released three group standards for the breeding and management of the Lufeng Old Water Chicken, marking a significant step towards standardization and branding in the poultry industry [29][31][32] - This initiative represents the first time that a comprehensive technical specification has been established for the entire industry chain of Lufeng Old Water Chicken, moving away from traditional experience-based farming methods [31][32] Group 3 - The article highlights the integration of technology and traditional practices in the tea industry, specifically mentioning the unique development path of Junzong Tea Industry in Guangdong, which combines tea tourism and tea-wine co-development [35][36][38] - It notes that the company has been rooted in the region for 11 years and has leveraged its red cultural heritage and technological innovation to create a distinctive market presence [35][36] Group 4 - The Newhui Chenpi industry is adopting modern public storage management practices to enhance its development, ensuring the authenticity and market competitiveness of its products through intelligent storage management and a full-chain traceability system [40][43][44] - This modernization effort aims to connect traditional products with contemporary market demands, thereby increasing brand value [43][44]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The soybean market shows a pattern of "price increase driven by sentiment in production areas and limited by demand". It will remain volatile in the short - term, and domestic soybeans may decline if the near - month auction volume of imported soybeans drops [1] - For corn, the selling pressure on prices will gradually decrease as the current sales progress advances. After the loosening of the hoarding sentiment, the supply will increase, suppressing the short - term upward space, but the worst stage is over, and there may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1] - Egg spot prices have stabilized, but the upward drive weakens as the price approaches the cost line. The short - term supply is still loose, and the far - month contracts have no obvious trend [2] - The pig market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand with stable prices. Demand increase is expected to be greater than supply increase, which may drive prices up marginally to near the cost line. The far - month contracts may rise after the Spring Festival, but significant trends still need to wait [2] Group 3: Summary by Product Soybean - The soybean market has the characteristic of "price increase driven by sentiment in production areas and limited by demand". Northeast production areas lead the increase, while the southern market follows but with insufficient demand. In the short - term, there is a game between hoarding sentiment on the supply side and cautious procurement on the demand side. It will maintain a volatile pattern, and domestic soybeans may decline if the near - month auction volume of imported soybeans drops [1] Corn - The average grassroots sales progress in Northeast China is about 38% according to three - party data and 42% according to the National Grain and Oil Information Center. The selling pressure on prices will gradually decrease. The inventory in the trading link is significantly higher than last year, which is a key variable for the market trend. After the loosening of the hoarding sentiment, the supply will increase, suppressing the short - term upward space, but the worst stage is over, and there may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1] Egg - Egg spot prices have stabilized, but the upward drive weakens as the price approaches the cost line. The short - term supply is still loose, and the near - month spot remains volatile. The far - month contracts are affected by the inconsistent expectations of production capacity reduction and the actual progress, and there is no obvious trend [2] Pig - The pig market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand with stable prices. The daily average slaughter volume in December has only increased slightly, and the weight gain is not obvious. With the cooling and expected bacon - curing, demand increase is expected to be greater than supply increase, which may drive prices up marginally to near the cost line. However, there is still a large supply pressure. The decline in the near - month inventory, especially the breeding sow inventory, makes the far - month contracts likely to rise after the Spring Festival, but significant trends still need to wait [2]

【冠通期货研究报告】 养殖产业链日报：供需宽松 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日 大豆：国内市场，关内大豆产区受不利天气影响，品质有所受损，使得东北 高蛋白大豆价格支撑较强，阶段性基层惜售情绪较浓。但中长期来看，新季国产 大豆丰产格局未变，售粮进度偏慢或导致后续集中销售压力。此外，下游原料库 存仍居中高位，需求端承接力度有限。短期盘面价格跟随近月进口豆上扬，但是 由于下游需求偏弱，短期保持震荡格局，后续如进口大豆近月抛储成交下降，国 产大豆存在进一步回落风险。 玉米：玉米近期出现顺畅的阶段性上涨，不过在上周起市场风向转变，小麦 库存投放、200 万吨调节储备投放等偏空传闻出现，在价格大幅上涨后，持粮主 体神经敏感，利空消息直接触发了部分获利盘离场。当前正处于玉米季节性售粮 高峰，价格回落进一步调动了市场走货积极性。前期捂粮的贸易主体与惜售的种 植户开始释放粮源，粮源库存流通加快，有效缓解了短期供需紧张，推动价格降 温。 预估在此轮惜售情绪松动后，供应量将阶段性增加，这将压制玉米短期上涨 空间，不过玉米最坏的阶段已经属于过去式，关注元旦前后是否存在逢低买入的 机会。 鸡蛋：最近鸡蛋现货企稳，不过在价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market has a certain degree of short - term uncertainty due to previous rises and overseas market adjustments, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with different support and pressure factors [13][15][18]. - The steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. - The energy and chemical market shows different trends, with some products recommended for long - term strategies and others for short - term caution [56][58][60]. - The agricultural product market also has various trends, such as short - term weak operation for some and shock - based operation for others [81][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US government may allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China; the SASAC held a central enterprise specialization integration promotion meeting; Changxin Storage released new DDR5 products; a Goldman Sachs partner said the US stock market may continue to sell off [2]. - **Strategy View**: After previous rises and influenced by overseas market adjustments, the short - term index is uncertain, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The main contracts of TL, T, and TF decreased on Friday, while TS remained unchanged. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and the US PMI data showed mixed results. The central bank conducted a net injection of 1622 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold prices rose slightly, and silver prices fell. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported. Fed officials' "dovish" remarks supported precious metal prices [9]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded after a decline, with LME copper inventory decreasing and domestic spot premiums rising [12]. - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with strong support at the bottom [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rebounded after a decline, with domestic and overseas inventory changes and improved downstream procurement sentiment [14]. - **Strategy View**: The aluminum price is expected to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment, with strong support [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the zinc industry still in an over - supply cycle [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with relatively loose supply [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price continued to fall, with changes in spot premiums and cost [20]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell slightly, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory. The safety situation in the DRC may affect tin mines [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The carbonate lithium price fell, with changes in spot and futures prices [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to potential disturbances and the reference range of the main contract [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [28]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with attention to supply - side policies [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and cost [30]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with an over - supply situation [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [31]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term [33]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [35]. - **Strategy View**: The steel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [37]. - **Strategy View**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate within a range, with strong supply and stable demand [38][39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the soda ash price fell. There were changes in inventory and basis [40][41]. - **Strategy View**: The glass price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the soda ash price is expected to be weakly volatile [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price fell, and the ferrosilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price, and to look for opportunities to rebound [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the polysilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [46][49]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate, and the polysilicon price is expected to oscillate within a wide range [48][50]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and adjusted, with changes in tire factory start - up rates and inventory [52][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to have a bullish strategy with stop - loss settings and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and there were changes in refined oil prices and inventory [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [59]. - **Strategy View**: The methanol price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with high inventory pressure [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [61]. - **Strategy View**: The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price was unchanged, and the styrene price rose. There were changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling in stages, with cost and demand factors [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price was unchanged, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [67]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA price is expected to be affected by supply, demand, and valuation factors [71]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The para - xylene price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [72]. - **Strategy View**: The para - xylene price is expected to have a risk of valuation correction, with high supply and low demand [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with cost and demand factors [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [77]. - **Strategy View**: The PP price is expected to be affected by cost and demand factors, and may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pig - **Market Information**: The pig price fluctuated, with normal supply and limited demand [80]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract or do reverse spreads [81]. Egg - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable with partial increases, with reduced inventory pressure and increased replenishment willingness [82]. - **Strategy View**: The egg price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound in the medium term [83][84]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The soybean meal price was stable, with changes in import cost, inventory, and demand [85]. - **Strategy View**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on crushing margins [86]. Edible Oils - **Market Information**: The edible oil price fell, with weak palm oil export data and high supply [87]. - **Strategy View**: The palm oil price is recommended to be viewed with an oscillatory perspective, and turn to a bullish strategy if production decreases [88][89]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price fell, with an expected global surplus in the 2025/26 season and increased imports [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then go short [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly, with changes in production, inventory, and demand [92][93]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with no strong driving force [94].

Report Overview - Report Title: "养殖产业链数据报告 - 玉米、生猪、鸡蛋" [1] - Release Date: November 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents weekly data on the corn, pig, and egg industries, including prices, consumption, inventory, and other key indicators, to reflect the current market situation and trends in the breeding industry chain [2][3][6] Summary by Category Corn - **Price**: The national market average price of corn was 2,245 yuan/ton, up 1.35% week-on-week; the settlement price of the CBOT corn main contract was 444 cents/bushel, up 3.92% week-on-week; the FOB price of corn in the western coastal port area of the United States was 224.61 dollars/ton, up 2.10% week-on-week; the landed duty-paid price was 2,081.92 yuan/ton, up 1.75% week-on-week; the basis of the corn spot main contract was 60 yuan/ton, down 9.09% week-on-week [2] - **Consumption**: The consumption of corn by major deep-processing enterprises was 125.86 million tons, up 0.37% week-on-week [2] - **Inventory**: The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 107.10 million tons, up 4.90% week-on-week; the corn inventory of major deep-processing enterprises was 459.20 million tons, down 1.27% week-on-week [2] Pig - **Price**: The average slaughter price of commercial pigs was 11.49 yuan/kg, down 3.45% week-on-week; the closing price of the pig main contract was 11,695 yuan/ton, down 2.17% week-on-week; the basis of the live pig spot main contract was 146 yuan/ton, up 121.21% week-on-week [3] - **Inventory and Slaughter**: The inventory of commercial pigs in comprehensive farms was 38.4462 million heads, up 0.15% month-on-month; the slaughter volume of 81 sample enterprises was 140,119 heads per day, down 1.27% week-on-week; the fresh sales volume of key slaughter enterprises was 789,319 heads, down 1.41% week-on-week; the cold storage capacity of key slaughter enterprises was 151,830 tons, up 0.55% week-on-week [3] - **Sales**: The slaughter volume of commercial pigs in comprehensive farms was 11.9653 million heads, up 11.85% month-on-month [3] Egg - **Price**: The market price of eggs was 5.83 yuan/kg, up 2.28% week-on-week; the basis of the egg spot main contract was 22 yuan/ton, down 191.67% week-on-week; the price difference between futures and spot was -279 yuan/500 kg, up 78.85% week-on-week [6][7] - **Inventory and Sales**: The number of laying hens in stock was 1.311 billion, down 0.15% month-on-month; the egg shipment volume was 6,186.06 tons, down 1.81% week-on-week; the monthly sales volume in China was 28,090 tons, down 1.65% month-on-month; the sales volume in the main sales areas was 6,501.44 tons, up 0.21% week-on-week; the inventory available days in the production link was 1.15 days, up 3.60% week-on-week; the total export volume was 13,215.79 tons, up 0.72% month-on-month [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views - The pig market is facing an oversupply situation, with high pressure on supply after the Spring Festival and potential challenges in consumption absorption. The supply - demand imbalance may persist [2] - The egg market has low inventory build - up willingness from deep - processing and feed enterprises, and the situation of oversupply remains due to the concentrated listing of new grain [5] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Pig Market - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract was 11,685 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton (- 0.43%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.96 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.25 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.15 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.34 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.63 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.21 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices: On November 4, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 124.96, down 0.13 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 126.95, down 0.16 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 18.02 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; beef was 66.73 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton was 63.20 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; eggs were 7.27 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; white - striped chicken was 17.22 yuan/kg, down 2.2% [1] Egg Market - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract was 3144 yuan/500 kg, a change of - 14 yuan (- 0.44%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.69 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.69 yuan/jin. The spot basis remained unchanged in these regions, with only the basis difference changing by + 14 [3] - Inventory: On November 4, 2025, the production - link inventory was 1.15 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, both unchanged from the previous day [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Pig Market - The inventory of large and medium - sized pigs over 5 months old decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowed by 2.4%. The number of newborn piglets increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year. The large - scale farms had a 1.8% month - on - month and 11% year - on - year increase, indicating significant long - term supply pressure mainly due to post - Spring Festival consumption decline and supply increase [2] - The second - fattened pigs entering the market this month are expected to be slaughtered at the end of the year, and the consumption side may not be able to absorb the supply increase, so the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern may persist [2] Egg Market - Deep - processing and feed enterprises have relatively low inventory, weak inventory - building willingness, and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is concentrated on the market, and the oversupply situation remains. Attention can be paid to farmers' grain - selling progress and traders' inventory levels [5] Group 5: Strategies Pig Market - Take a cautiously bearish stance [3] Egg Market - Take a cautiously bearish stance [6] Corn Market - It is expected that the corn price will continue to fluctuate weakly this week [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of industry in rural revitalization, highlighting the need for optimizing industrial layout and integrating resource advantages to explore local characteristic practices for rural development [1][2]. Group 1: Initiatives and Strategies - Zhangdian Town has adopted the "Secretary Project" as a key approach, focusing on three major systems: "joint construction of organizations, shared resources, and collaborative achievements" to explore new paths for party-led common prosperity alliances [1]. - The town has organized nine specialized matching events and conducted seven collaborative activities, resulting in the identification of four valuable project information and driving agricultural product sales to 2.1 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Industry Development and Economic Growth - Zhangdian Town is promoting differentiated, large-scale, and high value-added industrial development by leveraging local resources and assets, with specific initiatives in three areas: Meiduo (health ecological breeding), Zhangdian (agricultural and cultural tourism integration), and Caiguan (deep processing of agricultural products) [2]. - The town has introduced six deep processing enterprises for agricultural products, revitalizing idle construction land and inefficient factories, and is enhancing the added value of agricultural products through various new business models [2]. - The implementation of the "Village Collective Economic Incentive Implementation Rules" aims to stimulate the internal motivation of villages to develop collective economies, with expected collective operating income exceeding 32 million yuan this year, a year-on-year increase of over 23% [2].

Group 1 - The core idea of rural revitalization in China emphasizes the importance of localized and diversified development to achieve sustainable growth [1][2] - Successful rural industries are rooted in a deep understanding and creative utilization of local resources, leading to unique competitive advantages [1][2] - Technological innovations, such as drone technology in bamboo shoot harvesting, signify a shift from labor-intensive to technology-intensive agricultural practices [2][3] Group 2 - The integration of ecological considerations with market demands creates a virtuous cycle for rural industries, enhancing both economic and ecological benefits [2][3] - The implementation of the rural revitalization strategy has led to diverse successful paths, illustrating that there is no one-size-fits-all solution [2][3] - The role of government is crucial in facilitating rural industry development through policy guidance, infrastructure construction, and market expansion [2][3] Group 3 - The emergence of new business models and practices represents a significant growth driver for high-quality county-level economic development [3] - Rural revitalization is characterized by the rediscovery and enhancement of rural values rather than mere imitation of urban models [3] - The narrative of rural modernization in China is one that balances traditional elements with innovative spirit, fostering a vibrant and dynamic rural economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the integration of technology in agriculture, showcasing how modern techniques and cooperative models are enhancing farmers' income during the harvest season [1] Group 1 - The use of drones for transporting fresh bamboo shoots from mountainous areas demonstrates the application of technology in agriculture [1] - Various modern planting and breeding techniques are being adopted to support farmers in increasing their earnings [1] - New agricultural cooperative models are emerging, contributing to the overall improvement in farmers' income [1]