晨会纪要 晨会纪要 核心观点： 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 美国货币政策框架调整包括：一是删除零利率下限（ELB）是经济决定性特征的表 述；二是取消 2020 年平均通胀目标制（FAIT），即补偿策略，回归灵活通胀目标 制框架（FIT）；三是删除了此前"决策将依据就业低于最大水平的评估"的表述； 四是在广泛经济环境下，即就业与通胀目标无法兼顾时，应采取平衡策略推进双 重目标，即最大就业和物价稳定。 8 月 22 日（星期五）22 点，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的讲话。 分析师：刘笑瑜 评论： 8 月 22 日，美联储主席鲍威尔在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表《货币 政策与美联储评估框架》（Monetary Policy and the Fed's Framework Review） 的演讲，这次讲话之所以备受市场关注，不仅是因为这是鲍威尔任期内最后一次 在全球央行年会上发表讲话，而且杰克逊霍尔央行年会通常是美联储发布新的货 币政策框架，并披露下一步行动线索的场所。 美联储主席鲍威尔在年会上，一是对于就业市场：鲍威尔认为虽然失业率未显著 上行，但贸易与移民政策变化使得就业供需共同走弱，特别是在劳 ...

开源证券近日发布电力设备行业周报：8月18日，《电动汽车用全固态电池单体规格尺 寸》团体标准正式通过立项审查，列入中国汽车工程学会标准研制计划（起草任务书编号： 2025-035）。该标准由电动汽车产业技术创新战略联盟提出，中国第一汽车集团有限公司牵 头研制，将统一全固态电池单体封装与尺寸规范，为行业规模化落地奠定关键基础。 8月18日-8月22日，固态电池指数+2.2%，2025年累计+32.9%，同期沪深300指数 +11.3%。统计范围内的固态电池相关标的平均+2.5%，所有环节均出现上涨，其中导电剂 以下为研究报告摘要： （+15.8%）、铝塑膜（+4.2%）涨幅靠前。涨幅前五标的分别为道氏技术（+19.2%）、嘉元 科技（+16.0%）、珠海冠宇（+12.5%）、天奈科技（+12.5%）、安孚科技（+10.3%）；跌 幅前五标的分别为海辰药业（-13.0%）、德龙激光（-8.9%）、远航精密（-6.0%）、南都电 源（-3.7%）、冠盛股份（-3.3%）。 风险提示：技术研发不及预期，产业落地进展不及预期，下游需求不及预期。（开源证 券 殷晟路） 《电动汽车用全固态电池单体规格尺寸》团体标准正式立项 ...

凤凰网财经讯 8月25日，三大指数集体高开，沪指高开0.59%，深成指高开1.03%，创业板指高开 1.41%，算力芯片、CPO、华为昇腾等板块指数涨幅居前。 | | | | | 沪深京重要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 *● | 咸新 | 张幅% | | 涨跌 涨跌家数 涨速% | | 总手 | 现手 金额 | | 上证指数 | 3848.16 | 0.59 | 22.40 | 1508/434 | -0.02 | 845 / | 845万 145.51亿 | | 深证成指 | 12291.12 | 1.03 | 125.06 | 1886/571 | 0.11 | 1055万 | 1055万 174.87亿 | | 北证50 | 1608.69 | 0.53 | 8.41 | 203/52 | 0.39 | 10.2万 | 10.2万 2.97亿 | | 创业板指 | 2720.28 | 1.41 | 37.73 | 924/308 | 0.07 | 297 万 | 297万 75.33亿 | 机构观点： ...

其 他 研 究 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 电子 | 4.818 | | 通信 | 3.772 | | 计算机 | 3.504 | | 非银金融 | 2.761 | | 国防军工 | 2.286 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 银行 | -0.297 | | 纺织服饰 | -0.198 | | 煤炭 | -0.147 | | 石油石化 | -0.146 | | 钢铁 | -0.108 | 数据来源：聚源 开源晨会 0825 ——晨会纪要 晨会纪要 2025 年 08 月 25 日 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】新型政策性金融工具即将落地——宏观周报-20250824 【宏观经济】美联储 9 月降息共识或 ...

Group 1: Structural Changes in Financial Markets - The global financial market is undergoing structural changes driven by the dual forces of the AI computing power revolution and the carbon neutrality process [1] - Investors are facing valuation reconstruction of emerging tech stocks and yield fluctuations in traditional industry bonds, necessitating the construction of more forward-looking investment portfolios [1] Group 2: Opportunities in the Stock Market - In the tech sector, quantum computing companies have achieved an average increase of 187% since the beginning of the year [2] - In the consumer sector, smart wearable device manufacturers have seen a 340% year-on-year increase in order volume due to breakthroughs in brain-computer interface technology [2] - Solid-state battery companies in the new energy industry have received significant funding from national development funds, amounting to billions [2] Group 3: Safe Haven Value in the Bond Market - Asian dollar bonds have become a safe haven for funds amid expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [3] - A 10-year infrastructure bond issued by a specific company has a current yield of 5.8%, which is significantly higher than the same-rated U.S. Treasury bonds by 120 basis points [3] - The green bond sector has seen carbon neutrality special bonds exceed $50 billion, benefiting from tax incentives and liquidity premiums [3] Group 4: Strategic Positioning of Gold Assets - Geopolitical risks have increased the value of gold allocations, despite digital currencies diverting some safe-haven demand [4] - A specific gold ETF has reached a record high holding of 2,150 tons [4] - Digital gold certificate products have achieved T+0 cross-border settlement with an average daily trading volume exceeding $2 billion [4] - An asset allocation model suggests a growth-oriented portfolio with a 55:30:15 allocation in stocks, bonds, and gold, focusing on high-growth tech stocks and short-duration bonds for hedging [4] - Conservative investors can maintain over 25% in safe-haven positions through gold derivatives [4] Group 5: Market Volatility and Risk Control - Intelligent risk control system providers have seen valuation increases, with their Bayesian network warning model capable of predicting over 80% of price movements 36 hours in advance [5] - The launch of regulatory technology platforms is expected to enhance market transparency, creating a better environment for rational investment [5]

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is actively coordinating between power generation companies and local industries to enhance price transmission from manufacturing to power stations, emphasizing a market-oriented and legal approach to eliminate outdated production capacity [1] - The average bidding price for components from China Resources and China Huadian has increased by 5-8% month-on-month, while silicon material companies have proactively limited production, leading to a 10% decrease in silicon wafer inventory over two weeks [1] - The investment sequence indicates a tight supply of silicon materials in Q3, a premium for BC battery technology in Q4, and a simultaneous increase in both volume and price of auxiliary materials such as glass and adhesive films [1][2] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Technology - A breakthrough in solid-state battery technology has been achieved with the introduction of 5μm vapor-deposited lithium anodes, significantly reducing dendrite risk and achieving over 500 cycles with a capacity retention rate above 90% [3] - The cost of 5μm vapor-deposited lithium is projected to drop to 2 million yuan per GWh, compared to 4 million yuan for 20μm rolled lithium foil, indicating a substantial cost reduction in the industry [3] - The solid-state battery market could reach 50-100 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the demand for 100GWh of global solid-state battery production [3] Group 3: Robotics Industry - The T-Link Gen3 technology is reshaping the supply chain with a focus on lightweight materials, energy efficiency, and sensor integration, leading to a re-tendering of motors, reducers, and lead screws [4] - The use of PEEK materials has reduced costs by 30% compared to imports, and the new harmonic magnetic field motors have achieved a 50% reduction in size while doubling power density [5] - The 3D vision solution from Orbbec has a single machine value of 200 USD, and the company has passed factory audits [6] Group 4: Semiconductor and AI Models - The DeepSeek model has been upgraded to V3.1, expanding the context length from 64K to 128K, which is expected to increase demand for GPU memory and HBM [7] - The need for larger training clusters is anticipated to rise by 30%, benefiting semiconductor and storage manufacturers such as Cambricon, Haiguang, and Lanke [7] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry - Rongchang Biotech has licensed its ophthalmic drug RC28-E to Japan's Santen Pharmaceutical, marking a shift in domestic innovative drug licensing from popular fields like oncology to specialized areas with differentiated advantages [8] - This collaboration model provides a clear path for value realization in less popular biotech sectors through upfront payments, milestones, and sales sharing, enhancing cash flow and leveraging established commercialization channels [8] Group 6: High-Speed Rail Industry - The China National Railway Group has initiated its second batch of high-speed train tenders for the year, with 210 sets, marking a recent high and exceeding market expectations [9] - This move reinforces the trend of sustained railway investment recovery, with new construction and maintenance peaks positively impacting the performance certainty of core companies in the industry [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting the historical performance and potential market overheating indicators, while also noting the mixed sentiments among retail and institutional investors. Market Performance - The A-share market has seen significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 30% over the past year, reflecting a strong bullish trend [8][22]. - On the latest trading day, major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.85%, the Shenzhen Component up 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.84% [22]. Market Sentiment and Indicators - Market participants are experiencing anxiety about potential corrections in a bull market, with some investors feeling they have missed out on gains [1][3]. - Key indicators of market overheating include a 5-day average turnover rate reaching 1.95%, approaching the 2% warning threshold, which historically precedes market pullbacks [10]. - Another sentiment indicator shows that the market has been in a strong state since mid-April, with the overbought/oversold index nearing 16%, indicating potential technical adjustment pressure if it exceeds 20% [12]. Institutional Insights - Institutions are optimistic about the market, with projections suggesting the Shanghai Composite Index could reach 4000 points [17]. - A survey of various institutions revealed a range of market sentiment scores, with most institutions rating the market's current state between 7.1 and 8.9 out of 10 [18]. Sector Performance - The electronic and communication sectors saw significant net inflows, while the real estate and basic chemical sectors experienced net outflows [34]. - Specific stocks such as ZTE Corporation and Northern Rare Earth saw the highest net inflows, indicating strong institutional interest [34]. Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investor enthusiasm appears subdued, with reports indicating low participation in margin trading and limited floating profits among retail clients [14][15]. - Despite the overall market rally, there is a notable lack of retail investor engagement compared to previous market cycles [14]. Conclusion - The A-share market is currently in a bullish phase, with significant institutional support and positive sentiment, although caution is advised due to potential overheating indicators and mixed retail investor engagement [10][12][22].

Macroeconomic Background - The A-share market has gradually emerged from a period of volatility since 2025, showing a relatively stable upward trend supported by domestic economic resilience and external environmental changes [1][3] - Global trade uncertainties have increased, but the impact of tariff shocks has not led to systemic risks, as domestic investors have shown confidence in China's economic fundamentals [1][3] - The domestic economy is undergoing a structural transformation, with manufacturing upgrades and capital market reforms providing new growth opportunities [3][4] Funding Logic - As of mid-2025, Chinese households have accumulated significant excess savings, with household deposits exceeding the trend line from 2011 to 2019 by over 50 trillion yuan, indicating a large potential fund pool for the stock market [4][5] - The ratio of A-share total market value to household deposits is at a historical low, suggesting that the transition of household funds into the market is just beginning [5][6] Institutional and Reform Dynamics - The direction of capital market reforms since 2024 has become clearer, focusing on "increasing investor returns" through improved dividend policies and optimized delisting systems [7][8] - Institutional reforms are reshaping perceptions of Chinese assets, leading to a decrease in risk premiums and creating long-term space for valuation expansion [7][8] Industry Allocation New Growth Directions - The AI industry is entering a phase of accelerated industrialization, with domestic supply chains rapidly innovating and replacing foreign counterparts [9] - The manufacturing upgrade trend is expected to drive the adoption of industrial and service robots, supported by policy emphasis on new productivity [10] - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to be a breakthrough in electric vehicles, with key domestic companies accelerating R&D [12] - The pharmaceutical sector is benefiting from aging populations and rising health demands, with innovative drugs showing growth potential [13] Financial Sector - The financial sector is poised to benefit from increased market activity as household funds enter the market [14] - Brokerage firms will see enhanced trading activity and expansion in investment banking services [15] - Insurance companies will experience improved returns due to favorable interest rates and a recovering equity market [16] - Banks remain attractive for defensive allocations due to stable dividends and low valuations [17] Thematic Opportunities - The military industry is expected to grow due to geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on self-sufficiency in critical technologies [18] - Emerging industries like drones and general aviation are gaining traction with significant policy support [19] - Marine technology sectors are projected to grow under the "blue economy" strategy [20] Defensive Allocation - High-dividend assets are becoming preferred defensive options in a declining risk-free interest rate environment, with sectors like coal, oil, and utilities offering attractive yields [21] Conclusion - The mid-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, supported by economic resilience, household funding potential, and institutional reforms [26] - A virtuous cycle is expected as household deposits gradually shift to the stock market, leading to steady index growth and low volatility [26] - The market is anticipated to present structural opportunities across various sectors, making it an optimal time for long-term investors to gradually position themselves [26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the journey of a solid-state battery company that ultimately faced substantial bankruptcy, highlighting the mismanagement and internal conflicts within the company [2][4]. Group 1: Company Background - The company was established in 2021, with a founding team that has a background in Japanese enterprises [6]. - The founder spent a significant amount of time in Japan during the pandemic, claiming to build a research and development team there [7][8]. - After raising several million yuan in funding in 2023, the founder returned to China [9]. Group 2: Internal Conflicts - The company experienced internal discord among the core team, leading to multiple operational locations in two adjacent cities in South China [14]. - The absence of the founder led to increased demands for salary raises from co-founders and the core team, resulting in higher management costs due to the establishment of multiple teams [17]. Group 3: Shareholder Discontent - In the second half of 2024, the founder sold shares of the employee stock ownership plan without convening a shareholders' meeting, which triggered backlash from existing shareholders [19]. - Shareholders were expecting a product testing report by the end of 2024, which was not delivered, leading to collective actions against the founder [19]. Group 4: Missed Opportunities - In early 2025, a leading company in the field expressed interest in acquiring the company, offering a deal that would allow investors to exit at cost, but the founder rejected the proposal [21]. - Shareholders proposed to reclaim the founder's shares due to breaches of contract, but the founder continued to refuse [22]. Group 5: Current Status - The company's domestic operations and management were reported to be relatively normal, with clear financial records [24]. - Shareholders hoped to gather evidence of the founder's mismanagement from the now-dissolved Japanese team, but the dissolution hindered this effort [25][26]. Group 6: Final Reflections - The overall assessment from the interviewee indicated that the founder lacked the capability and willingness to manage the company, while investors failed to exercise adequate oversight [30]. - Some state-owned investors managed to exit the company in time, while others were not as fortunate [30].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the advancements in the **800V HVDC** technology and its implications for the **AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center)** supply architecture, highlighting a significant opportunity for domestic suppliers in China to meet overseas demand [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Adoption of 800V HVDC**: Nvidia plans to gradually adopt 800V HVDC to address the increasing power density in AI computing, which will lead to energy savings and reduced copper usage [1][2][4]. - **Investment Trends**: Major tech companies like Meta and Alphabet are increasing capital expenditures, indicating a strong focus on AIDC investments. Meta's capital expenditure was raised from $64 billion to $66 billion, while Alphabet's was increased to $85 billion [5]. - **Advantages of HVDC**: HVDC systems eliminate the need for AC-DC and DC-DC conversions, resulting in energy savings and reduced losses compared to traditional UPS systems [3][4]. - **Solid-State Transformers (SST)**: SSTs are being developed as future power solutions, currently in pilot testing, with potential applications in data centers and renewable energy generation. Full-scale deployment is expected to take three years [1][7][8]. - **Solid-State Battery Development**: Focus on key components such as dry electrodes and insulation materials, with significant orders already placed for equipment [9][10]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The solar industry is in a transitional phase, with clear price recovery trends and a recommendation to focus on silicon materials and auxiliary materials [11]. Additional Important Content - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like McMitter, Zhongheng Electric, and Shenghong Co. are highlighted as key players in the HVDC space. In the UPS sector, companies like Kstar and Kehua Data are also noted for their technological capabilities [6]. - **Future of SST**: SSTs are expected to play a crucial role in the evolution of power supply systems, particularly in high-power AIDC applications [8]. - **Wind Power Market**: The wind power sector is showing signs of recovery, with a focus on key components and offshore wind developments, indicating strong growth potential [14][15]. - **Investment Strategy**: Current investment strategies should prioritize IDC power systems, solid-state batteries, and the photovoltaic sector, as these areas present significant growth potential [18].