ab 9 January 2026 Global Research China Equity Strategy Near-term and full-year 2026 A-share outlook in charts A new uptrend appears to be taking shape The A-share market had a volatile Q425, as: 1) the rally in global equities, especially in tech, started to get bumpy at the highs; 2) the investor crowdedness in A-share tech and innovation-related themes peaked in late Q325; and 3) some investors took profit towards year-end. In 2026, however, we expect these short-term technical factors to stop disrupting ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:57，今日沪指涨0.90%，A股成交量1624.19亿股，成交金额29695.04 亿元，比上一个交易日增加15.67%。个股方面，3840只个股上涨，其中涨停173只，1476只个股下跌， 其中跌停6只。从申万行业来看，传媒、计算机、国防军工等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为6.85%、6.78%、 5.87%；石油石化、煤炭、房地产等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.22%、1.04%、0.47%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:57） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 | 6.85 | 1476.21 | 49.87 | 流金科技 | 29.92 | | 计算机 | 6.78 | 3251.41 | 51.93 | 众诚科技 | 30.00 | | 国防军工 | 5.87 | 2456.61 | -1.98 | 华力创通 | 20.01 | | 社会服务 | 2.94 | 237.77 | 30.79 | C陕旅 | ...

回望2025年，中国经济在错综复杂的内外部环境中顶压前行。A股市场的表现极具韧性，上证指数在四 季度一度突破4000点，创下近十年新高，年内最大涨幅超过30%。横向对比来看，2025年A股的表现在 全球市场中亦是名列前茅。展望2026年，尽管节奏存在不确定性，但随着高质量发展的不断推进，A股 仍有望在震荡中继续上扬，并在政策红利释放与内外部环境改善的共同推动下延续结构性强势行情。 首先，随着美联储降息周期的再度开启，全球流动性环境出现边际改善。美元指数在年内明显走弱，资 金从高利率环境向更高性价比的市场回流成为趋势。人民币在这一阶段呈现阶段性走强趋势，美元对人 民币汇率年末一度突破7.0关口。这不仅反映了外汇市场对中国经济韧性的认可，也提升了国内资产在 全球投资组合中的相对吸引力。在此背景下，A股这一深具结构性机会且估值处于相对低位的市场，更 容易受到海外增量资金的青睐。而在经历过去数年的波动后，A股估值体系逐步从高波动向高质量转 型，其中具备技术优势和长期发展前景的科技公司更能吸引全球资金的关注。综合来看，美联储降息推 动美元走弱，叠加人民币阶段性走强，增强了中国资产的相对吸引力。由此带来的资金回流与财富效 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus of observation has shifted to the government bond issuance in January 2026. The government bond issuance in January 2026 is in line with expectations. The long - end bonds are at the upper limit of the expected range and are worth participating in. For equities, the style is generally balanced with growth slightly dominant before the significant increase in government bond issuance. The report recommends a portfolio of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), the China Securities 1000 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [2][8][21] - In the deleveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The report recommends an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][55] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - economy sector was 8.6% (previous value: 8.7%), in line with expectations. It is expected to decline to around 8.3% in December 2025, lower than the 8.8% at the end of 2024, consistent with the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio. The government debt growth rate is expected to decline to around 12.4% in December 2025 from 13.1% at the end of November 2025. The central bank's stance on stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, and the quantitative fiscal targets are awaited from the Two Sessions in 2026 [2][16][17] - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the capital market tightened marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield rose to 1.34% at the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%, and a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut is expected in 2026. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 51 basis points. The spreads between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds and between the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds are expected to be in the range of 20 - 50 basis points, and the future yield ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][17] - **Asset Side**: In November 2025, the physical volume data showed signs of stabilizing at a low level compared to October. The full - year real economic growth target for 2025 was set at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target was around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether a nominal economic growth rate of around 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][18] 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Macroeconomic Background**: Since 2011, China has entered a period of declining potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in Q4 2024. Subsequently, China's profit cycle has entered a state of narrow - range oscillation at a low level. The government's policy goals of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio, having the financial sector benefit the real economy, and ensuring that housing is for living in rather than speculation are still in effect, and the deleveraging on the liability side has limited room for further contraction. If the valuation of the technology sector in the US is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China, and attention should be paid to whether the RMB exchange rate will enter an appreciation channel. The risk appetite may also oscillate within a certain range [6][19] - **Market Performance**: Last week, the capital market tightened marginally, resulting in a double - kill of stocks and bonds, with the growth style still dominant. The yields of both long - and short - term bonds rose, and the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favored stocks. The ten - year Treasury bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.85%, the one - year Treasury bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 1.34%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield rose by 4 basis points to 2.27%. The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.03 pct last week but has underperformed the CSI 300 Index by - 5.34 pct since its establishment in July 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to 15.7% for the CSI 300 Index) [7][20] 3.3 Industry Recommendations - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, the A - share market rose with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% and the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, media, automobiles, and machinery and equipment had the largest increases, with weekly changes of 3.9%, 3.1%, 2.1%, 1.4%, and 1.3% respectively. Public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had the largest declines, with weekly changes of - 2.7%, - 2.3%, - 2.2%, - 2.1%, and - 1.8% respectively [26][27] - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 31, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, power equipment, machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry, and computers, with values of 15.5%, 9.4%, 8.9%, 8%, and 6.8% respectively. The bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals. The top five industries with increased crowding this week were media, machinery and equipment, household appliances, computers, and national defense and military industry. The trading volume of the entire A - share market rebounded this week. Media, petroleum and petrochemicals, computers, beauty care, and national defense and military industry had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [28][30] - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, media, machinery and equipment, and automobiles had the largest increases, while public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had the largest declines. Industries with high full - year 2024 profit forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to historical levels include banking, insurance, coal, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [34][35] - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, there was a marginal decline in demand. The global manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.5 to 50.4 in December. Internally, the second - hand housing price remained flat in the latest week, and the quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries showed a fluctuating upward trend from May to December 2025 [39] - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the fifth week of December (December 29 - 31), most actively managed public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300 Index. As of December 31, the net asset value of actively managed public equity funds was 3.95 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [52] - **Industry Recommendations**: In the deleveraging cycle, an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [55]

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.68 | 641.88 | 25.16 | 深圳新星 | 9.99 | | 电力设备 | 1.25 | 1234.90 | 24.87 | 东方日升 | 13.00 | | 商贸零售 | 1.21 | 212.29 | -6.89 | 银座股份 | 10.03 | | 钢铁 | 1.17 | 47.91 | 9.25 | 海南矿业 | 10.02 | | 国防军工 | 1.04 | 766.64 | 2.85 | 西测测试 | 19.03 | | 汽车 | 0.94 | 565.03 | 16.37 | 标榜股份 | 20.01 | | 计算机 | 0.88 | 527.93 | 4.98 | 佳缘科技 | 20.00 | | 非银金融 | 0.84 | 255.66 | 4.67 | 中银证券 | 7.68 | | 房地产 | 0.71 | 105.70 | -12.39 | 华联控股 | 10.00 ...

（原标题：今日27.47亿元主力资金潜入汽车业） | 行业名称 | 成交量 | 成交量 较昨日 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （亿股） | 增减 | （%） | （%） | 主力资金 净流入（亿元） | | | | （%） | | | | | 汽车 | 56.81 | 0.88 | 2.54 | 1.46 | 27.47 | | 机械设备 | 84.73 | 16.64 | 3.09 | 1.51 | 18.62 | | 国防军工 | 54.59 | 15.36 | 6.19 | 2.91 | 16.24 | | 食品饮料 | 15.32 | -1.71 | 1.65 | 0.85 | 5.40 | | 轻工制造 | 39.39 | 29.28 | 4.66 | 1.59 | 3.16 | | 电力设备 | 91.97 | 2.48 | 3.65 | 0.65 | 1.44 | | 家用电器 | 16.18 | 13.11 | 2.13 | 0.69 | 1.39 | | 纺织服饰 | 15.22 | 11.67 | ...

| 石油石 | 14.91 | -13.94 | 0.40 | 0.65 | -1.41 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 化 | | | | | | | 农林牧 | 29.78 | -9.80 | 3.1 1 | -0.85 | -4.65 | | 渔 | | | | | | | 传媒 | 30.96 | 6.69 | 2.12 | 0.00 | -5.74 | | 非银金 | 31.40 | -8.62 | 0.75 | 0.30 | -7.15 | | 融 | | | | | | | 交通运 | 42.38 | -23.46 | 0.99 | 0.13 | -7.16 | | 输 | | | | | | | 商贸零 | 49.28 | -19.63 | 4.09 | 0.03 | -8.14 | | 售 | | | | | | | 银行 | 25.03 | -11.79 | 0.19 | -0.30 | -10.32 | | 食品饮 | 15.59 | -17.75 | 1.68 | -0.36 | -11.13 | | 料 | | | | | | | ...

| 计算机 | 1764.70 | -4.17 | -0.24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料 | 516.89 | -4.70 | -0.90 | | 医药生物 | 1630.94 | -5.28 | -0.32 | | 机械设备 | 1297.03 | -5.42 | -0.42 | | 基础化工 | 989.38 | -5.49 | -0.55 | | 汽车 | 1169.84 | -6.61 | -0.56 | | 国防军工 | 853.34 | -8.69 | -1.01 | 截至12月17日，市场最新融资余额为24858.81亿元，较上个交易日环比减少22.34亿元，分行业统计，申 万所属一级行业有9个行业融资余额增加，电子行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加10.64亿元；融资 余额增加居前的行业还有通信、非银金融、建筑材料等，融资余额分别增加6.89亿元、3.80亿元、 7704.27万元；融资余额减少的行业有22个，国防军工、汽车、基础化工等行业融资余额减少较多，分 别减少8.69亿元、6.61亿元、5.49亿元。 以幅度进行统计，通信行业融资余额增幅最高 ...

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.85 | 308.27 | 61.38 | 永辉超市 | 10.10 | | 美容护理 | 1.21 | 24.77 | 21.85 | 百亚股份 | 3.73 | | 社会服务 | 0.23 | 74.81 | 30.43 | 中公教育 | 9.92 | | 食品饮料 | -0.18 | 180.17 | -1.44 | 交大昂立 | -5.53 | | 纺织服饰 | -0.28 | 65.88 | -2.50 | 兴业科技 | -5.19 | | 家用电器 | -0.32 | 97.81 | -18.71 | 海立股份 | -3.82 | | 农林牧渔 | -0.39 | 157.05 | -0.35 | 中粮糖业 | -5.41 | | 轻工制造 | -0.46 | 146.07 | -14.36 | 中源家居 | -10.01 | | 非银金融 | -0.47 | 178.60 | -22.24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall macro - policy aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The liability growth rate of the real - sector is expected to decline in December 2025, and the government debt growth rate is also expected to continue to fall. - The economic situation on the asset side is weak, with the physical quantity data in October weaker than that in September. It is necessary to focus on when the economy will stabilize and pick up. - The stock - bond ratio is in an interval - shock state, currently with risk - preference at the upper limit of the interval and trending downward later. The stock - bond ratio is in favor of bonds, and the equity style is in favor of value [17][19][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.7%, the same as the previous value, and it is expected to drop to around 8.5% in December. The government debt growth rate was 13.1% at the end of November, and is expected to fall to around 12.5% in December. The capital market was basically stable last week, mainly due to the renewal of 750 billion special treasury bonds on the 12th, with a high probability of subsequent marginal convergence [17][18]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The net increase of government bonds last week was 298.1 billion yuan, higher than the planned net decrease of 510.2 billion yuan. It is planned that the government bonds will have a net decrease of 119.2 billion yuan next week [2][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the capital trading volume and price increased on a weekly average basis, and the term spread was stable. The one - year treasury bond yield fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.39% on the weekend. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year treasury bonds was stable at 45 basis points. The yield fluctuation ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [2][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in October was weaker than that in September. The annual real economic growth target in 2025 is about 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is about 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - **Economic Cycle**: Since 2011, China has entered a period of declining potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in the fourth quarter of 2024. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016, and currently the liability - side convergence has not ended but the space is limited [6][20]. - **Overseas Situation**: China and the US are in a state of equal - power competition. If the valuation of the US technology field is re - evaluated, global funds may flow to China. It is necessary to focus on whether the RMB exchange rate will enter an appreciation channel [6][21]. - **Market Performance**: Last week, the capital market was stable, with stocks and bonds rising slightly, and the equity style shifting to growth - dominance. The bond yields at both long - and short - ends declined slightly, and the stock - bond ratio was in favor of bonds [7][21]. - **Investment Recommendation**: It is recommended to allocate long - term bonds and value - type equity assets. This week, it is recommended to allocate the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the 30 - year treasury bond ETF (20% position) [8][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, A - shares fell on heavy volume. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, national defense and military industry, electronics, machinery, and power equipment had the largest increases, while coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, and textile and clothing had the largest declines [30]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 12, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, communication, machinery, and computers, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, and coal. The trading volume of the whole A - shares rebounded this week, with the trading volume of some industries increasing and that of some industries decreasing [31][34]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of communication, electronics, national defense and military industry, machinery, and comprehensive increased the most, while that of coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, and textile and clothing decreased the most. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, securities, insurance, etc. [37][38]. - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, the demand is declining marginally, with the global manufacturing PMI falling and the export growth rates of some countries fluctuating. Domestically, the second - hand housing price fell last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends [42]. - **Public Offering Market Review**: In the second week of December, most active public - offering equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of December 12, the net asset value of active public - offering equity funds increased slightly compared with that in Q4 2024 [60]. - **Industry Recommendation**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio is only slightly in favor of equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. A recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][65].