Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the bearish domestic supply - demand situation and the weakening marginal benefits of exports [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan; the trading volume decreased by 197,035 hands; the open interest decreased by 40,159 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 25,362 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China was 5,262.59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased by 221.85 yuan; the price of ethylene - based PVC in South China was 5,425 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in South China decreased by 148.75 yuan; the CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia was 1,060 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of PVC was - 2 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 3,010 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream average price of calcium carbide in North China was unchanged; the mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Northwest China decreased by 49.5 yuan; the mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was unchanged; the CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 999 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of VCM increased by 30 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC increased by 70 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of EDC increased by 70 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 85.24%, an increase of 0.8%; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.53%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC increased by 1.46%; the total social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.03 million tons; the total social inventory of PVC in East China decreased by 0.69 million tons; the total social inventory of PVC in South China decreased by 0.34 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.45; the cumulative value of new housing construction area decreased by 53,686.06 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 535,372.16 - 124,518.13 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 2,871.41 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC increased by 0.49%; the 40 - day historical volatility of PVC increased by 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC decreased by 6.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options of PVC decreased by 6.9% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From March 20th to March 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.92%, an increase of 0.80% compared with the previous period; from March 21st to 27th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 4.3% to 45.96%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 2% to 41.2%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 3.04% to 37.39%; as of March 26th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.374 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 70.63%; from March 20th to March 26th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 2.62% to 5,533 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased by 7.84% to 7,867 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 228 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 322 yuan/ton to - 778 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since March 24th, PVC prices have continuously declined, and the market pricing logic has gradually returned to the reality of high inventory and weak demand [1]. - Although there is still some support from the supply contraction of ethylene - based PVC and export expectations, the price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short - term, and the cost - side will limit the downward space in the long - term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Since March 24th, PVC has continuously declined, giving back the previous gains, and the price center has significantly dropped [1]. Driving Factors Analysis Geopolitical Premium Cooling and Export Expectations Facing High - price Resistance - The previous strong rise of PVC prices was mainly due to the reduction of global ethylene production under geopolitical disturbances, which led to a significant decline in the domestic ethylene - based PVC operating rate and an enhanced expectation of domestic export substitution [3]. - As the overall sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has declined, the accumulated non - cost premium has been concentratedly given back. Foreign customers are resistant to high prices, and new export inquiries have decreased [3]. Internal Supply Hedging and Weak Recovery of Downstream Demand - While the price was rising due to the expected reduction of ethylene - based PVC supply, the domestic PVC internal supply structure changed. The production profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC improved, leading to an increase in its production load, and the overall supply reduction was limited [4]. - As of March 27th, the domestic ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 70.7%, a decrease of about 15% compared to the beginning of the month; the calcium - carbide - based PVC operating rate was 85.24%, an increase of 5% compared to the beginning of the month; the overall domestic PVC operating rate was 80.92%, a decrease of about 1.2% compared to 82% at the beginning of the month [4]. - The downstream demand for PVC has limited support for prices. Although the demand has been recovering after the Spring Festival, the actual increment is lower than expected. The operating rates of downstream industries such as pipes and profiles are still at a low level in recent years, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid procurement [6]. - The high social inventory has suppressed the price, and the difficulty in selling at high prices in the spot market has forced the futures price to decline [6]. Outlook for the Future Market - In the short - term, the price is expected to remain weakly volatile until the high inventory is significantly reduced and the downstream operating rate substantially recovers [7]. - In the long - term, as the price continues to decline, the cost - side support will gradually appear and limit the downward space. Currently, the calcium carbide price is firm, and the raw material cost is still high [7]. - It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of geopolitical situations on global energy prices, the actual export situation of domestic PVC, and the equipment maintenance rhythm [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The geopolitical situation is unclear, and the market is in a fierce tug - of - war between bulls and bears. Crude oil is mainly in high - level volatility. [3][4] - Stock index: The short - term volatility is large. Consider interval operations to seize stage - up opportunities. [5] - Gold: Given the unclear short - term driving factors and high price volatility, wait for clear catalysts at the macro or geopolitical level. [6][7] - Silver: The current price fluctuates extremely violently. Pay close attention to energy prices and global manufacturing PMI data. [8] - Rubber: The Shanghai rubber main contract may have certain support around 16,000 yuan/ton and show a fluctuating trend. [10] - Plastic: It is expected that plastics will fluctuate in a relatively strong range in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. [11] - Methanol: Methanol may continue the high - level fluctuation trend. Pay close attention to the spring maintenance intensity, geopolitical situation progress, and port inventory changes. [13] - PTA: In the short term, continuously pay attention to geopolitical disturbances, and the recovery of downstream demand is still the key. [14] - Ethylene glycol: The ethylene glycol market is currently strongly supported by supply contraction and stable demand. The short - term focus is on cost - side price disturbances under geopolitical factors. [15] - Soda ash: The futures price may enter a bottom - range fluctuation state. Adopt a bottom - range fluctuation thinking in the short term. [16] - Glass: The glass market is expected to continue the interval - fluctuation trend. Adopt an interval - fluctuation thinking in the short term. [18] - Corn: Corn is under pressure to correct in the short term. Pay attention to the support around 2,350 yuan/ton. [19][20] - Peanut: The main peanut contract fluctuates in a wide range. Operate cautiously. [21] - Cotton: Cotton is in high - level volatility. Operate cautiously. [22] - Soybean meal: Soybean meal may be weakly volatile in the short term. [23] - Soybean oil: The biodiesel policy is about to be implemented. Operate cautiously. [24] - Rapeseed meal: For the RM2605 contract, be vigilant against price fluctuation risks in the short term and focus on risk prevention and control. [25] - Rapeseed oil: The OI05 contract may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short term. Pay attention to risk prevention and control. [26] - Live pigs: The spot price is initially stable. Wait for policy signals and operate cautiously. [27] - Eggs: Pay attention to the breeding side's replenishment and elimination in the medium and long term. [29] - Shanghai copper: The sentiment has improved. Conservative investors wait for definite signals, while aggressive ones can participate at an appropriate time. [30] - Shanghai aluminum: Operate cautiously and wait and see in the short term. [31] - Alumina: The expectation of oversupply remains unchanged, and there is still upward pressure. [32] - Cast aluminum alloy: The price is strongly correlated with Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to the marginal changes in cost and demand. [33][34] - Lithium carbonate: Wait for opportunities to buy at low prices or enter the market after a breakthrough. [35] - Industrial silicon: Cost support is dominant. There may be no trending market in the short term. Wait and see for the time being. [36] - Polysilicon: The trading is sluggish with large fluctuations. It is not recommended to participate for now. [37] - Stainless steel: Affected by macro - sentiment, it fluctuates in the short term. [38] - Rebar: The market sentiment is strong, and steel products fluctuate strongly. [39][40] - Hot - rolled coil: The market sentiment is strong, and steel products fluctuate strongly. [41] - Iron ore: Iron ore may fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and demand recovery rhythm. [42] - Coking coal and coke: They may maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short term. Pay attention to the actual purchasing power of steel mills, coal mine capacity release, and policy implementation. [43][44] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The US - Iran conflict is in a state of "talking while fighting". The uncertainty of geopolitics disturbs the crude oil and chemical sectors, and the energy - chemical sector remains strong before the crisis is completely resolved. The resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the safety of Middle - East oil and gas facilities are the main influencing factors [3]. - Market analysis: The change in the Gulf situation affects the futures market in real - time. The energy - chemical prices are in high - level volatility. If there is no further attack on oil and gas and the Strait of Hormuz is opened orderly, the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated [3]. Stock Index - Macro information: The market is in an environment with internal support and external pressure. The internal support comes from the improvement of macro - economic data and policy tone, while the external pressure is from the Middle - East conflict [5]. - Market analysis: On March 31, the A - share market declined across the board. Funds flowed from the technology - growth sectors to the large - cap blue - chip sectors. [5] Gold - Macro and geopolitics: The Fed maintained the interest rate in March, with only one expected rate cut this year. The Middle - East conflict continues, and the prospect of a cease - fire negotiation is unclear [6]. - Market analysis: On March 31, the spot gold price rebounded slightly. High oil prices strengthen the Fed's "higher - for - longer" stance, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, if the Middle - East situation escalates, the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset may increase [6][7]. Silver - External price: The spot silver price has experienced sharp adjustments and rebounded on March 31. The inventory data shows a tight fundamental situation [8]. - Market analysis: The silver market is in a game between macro - suppression and fundamental support. High energy prices may suppress the price, while low inventory and industrial demand may support it [8]. Chemical Industry Rubber - Market price: The prices of various types of rubber and raw materials are provided [9]. - Market analysis: Due to the off - season of rubber tapping, high raw material prices, and the rising price of BR synthetic rubber, the downside space of Shanghai rubber is limited. Pay attention to domestic rubber - tapping, downstream start - up, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, and BR rubber premium [10]. Plastic - Spot information: The spot prices in different regions have declined [11]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, the demand is at a low level, and the inventory is at a certain level. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level and is affected by geopolitics and oil prices [11]. Methanol - Spot information: The spot prices in different regions show different trends [12][13]. - Market analysis: The futures price has declined. The port inventory is decreasing, the domestic supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is recovering. The international situation may lead to a structural adjustment in methanol trade [13]. PTA - Spot information: The spot price has decreased, and the basis has also changed [14]. - Market analysis: The PTA industry's operating rate is at a high level, but the downstream polyester industry's sales are sluggish. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price has decreased, and the basis has changed [15]. - Market analysis: The domestic production has decreased, the port inventory is declining, the expected arrival volume is low, and the polyester industry's high - level operation supports the demand. The short - term focus is on cost - side price disturbances [15]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The mainstream prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased, the factory inventory is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The demand is weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [16]. Glass - Spot information: The prices in different regions are stable [17][18]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased slightly, the factory inventory is decreasing, and the terminal demand in the peak season may support the market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: The purchase prices in different regions are provided [19]. - Market analysis: The USDA report shows an increase in global corn production and inventory. The domestic supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [19]. Peanut - Spot price: The peanut price is mostly stable, with a decline in the Northeast. The supply is tight in the short term, and the demand is slightly boosted, but the price may decline later [21]. - Market analysis: The peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and oil - mill procurement mentality [21]. Cotton - Spot information: The spot prices at home and abroad have changed, and the basis and price difference have also changed [22]. - Market analysis: The international cotton price is rising. The domestic supply is expected to decrease, the demand has some resilience, and the commercial inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot price is continuously decreasing [23]. - Market analysis: The market is waiting for the US soybean planting intention report. The cost support is weakening, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the inventory may increase in the future [23]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: The spot price has slightly increased [24]. - Market analysis: Globally, it is affected by the Middle - East conflict and biodiesel policy. Domestically, it is about to enter the off - season. Pay attention to the situation of the US - Iran conflict and the implementation of the biodiesel policy [24]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The basis price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: The US soybean market has no obvious driving factors, waiting for the biodiesel policy. The relaxation of regulations on Brazilian soybeans suppresses the market sentiment. Pay attention to geopolitical conflicts [25]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The basis price is stable [26]. - Market analysis: Brazilian biodiesel producers have the ability to support a higher blending ratio. The supply of non - GMO rapeseed oil is tight. Pay attention to the Middle - East situation, crude - oil trend, and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy [26]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The price is stable in general, with a slight increase in Henan [27]. - Market analysis: The supply is slowing down, the demand is in the off - season, and the policy of purchasing and storing is expected to increase. The spot price is initially stable, and pay attention to the reversal signal [27]. Eggs - Spot market: The price is rising steadily [28]. - Market analysis: The supply pressure of new - laying hens is small, the egg - laying hen inventory is declining, the demand is affected by seasonal factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the long - term supply - side changes [29]. Metals Shanghai Copper - Spot information: The spot price has increased [30]. - Market analysis: The domestic inventory is in the destocking cycle, but the global inventory is high. The copper - smelting industry is under pressure, and the price is supported by domestic destocking and new - energy demand but restricted by high inventory and smelting losses [30]. Shanghai Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price has increased [31]. - Market analysis: The attack on Middle - East aluminum factories has increased the price. The domestic supply is rigid, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is supported in the short term but may be under pressure in the long term [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has increased slightly [32]. - Market analysis: The supply is expected to be excessive due to the increase in production, the demand is mainly for rigid procurement, the import and export have no arbitrage space, and the inventory has increased [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The average price is stable [33]. - Market analysis: The cost provides some support, the supply is in a state of over - capacity, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is correlated with Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to cost and demand changes [33][34]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [35]. - Market analysis: The social inventory is at a low level, the supply is expected to decrease, the demand from energy - storage batteries is increasing, and the profit is differentiated. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and pay attention to future supply and demand changes [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The market prices of different grades are provided [36]. - Market analysis: The supply is decreasing due to cost pressure, the inventory is high and difficult to destock, the demand is weak, and the price is supported by cost. Pay attention to the resumption of production of leading factories and the implementation of emission - reduction policies [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types have decreased [36][37]. - Market analysis: The market is under the triple pressure of high inventory, deep losses, and serious supply - demand imbalance. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and pay attention to inventory destocking and policy intervention [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [37]. - Market analysis: The adjustment of Indonesian nickel - mine quotas drives the price up, but the weak terminal demand and high inventory may suppress the upward space. The price may fluctuate in the short term [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price is stable [39]. - Market analysis: Affected by domestic policy expectations and overseas macro - factors, the price is in a strong - basis regression and fluctuates strongly. The supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is decreasing, and the cost has resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [39][40]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price is stable [41]. - Market analysis: Affected by domestic policy expectations and overseas macro - factors, the price is in a strong - basis regression and fluctuates strongly. The supply is at a high level, the demand is slightly decreasing, the inventory is slightly decreasing, and the cost has resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The prices of different types of iron ore show different trends [42]. - Market analysis: The iron - ore market is in a game between short - term geopolitical premium support and medium - term supply - demand relaxation. The price is pressured by high inventory but pushed up by policy disturbances. The supply is expected to be loose in the long term, and the demand is recovering slowly. The price may fluctuate in the short term [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price index of coking coal has decreased, and the average price of first - class metallurgical coke is stable [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, the supply is increasing but restricted by inventory, the demand is elastic, and the price is affected by energy prices and supply - demand. For coke, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by coking - coal price and geopolitical factors. They are expected to fluctuate in the short term [43][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The plastic price is expected to show a strong - side fluctuating trend. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, the downstream shows resistance to high prices and the spot trading enthusiasm is not high. The situation in the Middle East is changeable, which affects the supply and price of plastics. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1行情分析 (Market Analysis) - On March 31, the plastic operating rate remained at around 80%, at a relatively low level. As of the week of March 27, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 2.16 percentage points to 39.75% week - on - week, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday normal level. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory has decreased and is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1]. - The conflict in the Middle East still exists, the possibility of a cease - fire agreement between the US and Iran is low, the risk of crude oil supply interruption has not been eliminated, and the crude oil price remains high. New production capacities of Basf (Guangdong) FDPE and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no new production capacity plans in the first quarter. The plastic operating rate has been declining recently [1]. - After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work in downstream factories increased, and the rigid demand was released intensively. During the spring plowing season, the prices of agricultural films in North, East, and South China continued to rise. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices, and the spot trading enthusiasm is not high. The non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz still brings the expectation of reduced plastic supply [1]. 3.2期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market Conditions) - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 8,511 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,916 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8,614 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 4.48%. The position decreased by 24,962 lots to 299,225 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 300 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 8,380 - 9,370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10,100 - 11,510 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,400 - 9,840 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Tracking) - **Supply**: On March 31, there were little changes in the shutdown devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 80%, at a relatively low level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of March 27, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 2.16 percentage points to 39.75% week - on - week. After the fifth week of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises resumed production one after another, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday normal level, showing seasonal changes in the overall PE downstream operating rate [4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 850,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period in the lunar calendar last year, and currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell to $107/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by $60/ton to $1,500/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also increased by $60/ton to $1,500/ton week - on - week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is experiencing a downward trend with high volatility. Given the complex situation in the Middle East and the large price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 0.80 percentage points to 80.90%, which is at a moderately high level in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the average downstream operating rate of PVC rose by 4.30 percentage points to 45.96%, 1.21 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Some overseas device loads decreased, and export prices increased. The social inventory increased slightly again and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the improvement needs time. The PVC industry has an anti - involution expectation, and there is an expectation of reduced supply if the Strait of Hormuz does not resume navigation. However, downstream orders are not ideal, the decline in the operating rate of ethylene - based devices is not significant, and the futures warehouse receipts are relatively high year - on - year, putting pressure on the spot market [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract decreased in position and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 5313 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5540 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 5353 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 5.39%. The position decreased by 8552 lots to 717353 lots [2]. - On March 31, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 5300 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2605 contract futures was 5353 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 53 yuan/ton, strengthening by 39 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, Yantai Wanhua ended maintenance, Guangxi Huayi resumed full production, and the operating loads of Shaanxi Jintai, Henan Lianchuang, etc. increased. The PVC operating rate increased by 0.80 percentage points to 80.90%, at a moderately high level in recent years. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December 2025 [4]. - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The sales area of commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%; the sales area of residential housing decreased by 15.9%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 818.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 21.8%. The newly started area of housing was 50.84 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%; the newly started area of residential housing was 36.95 million square meters, a decrease of 23.3%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The completed area of housing was 63.2 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.9%; the completed area of residential housing was 46.25 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 26.9%. As of the week of March 29, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 25.46% week - on - week. After the fifth week of the Spring Festival, the transaction of commercial housing continued to increase week - on - week but remained at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of March 26, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.20% to 1.374 million tons, 70.63% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly again and remains high [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Though supply continues to shrink, negative feedback on the demand side is gradually emerging. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East disturbs the market, intensifying concerns about the supply of olefin raw materials such as naphtha and propane. The contraction of the supply side supports the rise in olefin prices. For PE, with reduced domestic refinery operations and a weak import outlook, the supply will continue to tighten. Downstream demand is in the peak spring - plowing season, but high - priced raw materials make downstream profits under pressure, and demand follows cautiously. For PP, the supply continues to tighten due to refinery cut - backs and PDH device maintenance. The opening of the export window drives up export demand, but downstream procurement is cautious. In the short term, both PE and PP prices are supported by supply contraction and strong raw material support before the Strait of Hormuz is open for navigation [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 8,804 yuan/ton (-64), and that of the PP main contract is 9,269 yuan/ton (-44). LL North China spot is 8,800 yuan/ton (+300), LL East China spot is 8,930 yuan/ton (+430), and PP East China spot is 9,350 yuan/ton (+350). LL North China basis is -4 yuan/ton (+364), LL East China basis is 126 yuan/ton (+494), and PP East China basis is 81 yuan/ton (+394) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 76.2% (-3.8%), and PP operating rate is 70.0% (-0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is -1,611.6 yuan/ton (+88.3), PP oil - based production profit is -1,351.6 yuan/ton (+88.3), and PDH - based PP production profit is -3,121.1 yuan/ton (-113.1) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is -929.2 yuan/ton (+424.6), PP import profit is -1,344.4 yuan/ton (-150.0), and PP export profit is 299.2 US dollars/ton (+8.4) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 38.9% (+3.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 47.2% (+1.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.1% (+0.9%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.4% (+1.5%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict affects the supply of olefin raw materials. Domestic refineries are in a phase of concentrated production cuts, and planned maintenance of PE devices from late March to April will increase. The supply will continue to tighten. Downstream demand is in the peak spring - plowing season, but high - priced raw materials make downstream profits under pressure, and the inventory reduction channel cannot be continuously opened. Before the actual withdrawal or negotiation of the US and Israel, PE prices are still supported by supply contraction [3]. - **PP**: Uncertainty in the geopolitical conflict remains, and concerns about the supply of raw materials such as crude oil and propane persist. Domestic refineries' concentrated production cuts continue, and PDH device maintenance intensifies. The supply will continue to tighten. Downstream demand is in seasonal recovery, but high - priced PP squeezes downstream profits, and downstream procurement is cautious. The opening of the export window drives up export demand. Before the Strait of Hormuz is open for navigation, PP prices are strongly supported [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. - **Inter - period**: No strategy. - **Cross - variety**: Cautiously shrink the spread of LL05 - PP05 when it is high [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PVC: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, which affects the prices of oil and chemical products [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations, and their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated below the 5 - day moving average. The circulation volume in the northern mainstream propylene market increased temporarily, and downstream enterprises' resistance to receiving goods remained unchanged, with a cautious trading atmosphere [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures showed a relatively strong consolidation. For polyethylene, the cost was supported by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the supply side provided support. The demand side was in the spring plowing season, but the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited. For polypropylene, the upstream refineries' ex - factory prices remained high, the middlemen actively sold goods, but the high - price transaction pressure was prominent, and the downstream's enthusiasm and willingness to start work were weak [2] Polyester - Affected by the situation between the US and Iran, oil prices were strong, and PX and PTA prices fluctuated. The overall single - side trend was dominated by energy and closely related to the Middle East situation. PTA was dragged down by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [3] - Ethylene glycol's load decreased slightly, the port inventory increased, and the downstream recovery was slow. There was an expectation of tight supply due to the un - recovered external supply of Middle East energy chemical products [3] - Short fiber's load increased weekly, the downstream weaving's load increase slowed down, and new orders were not negotiated smoothly. The market was mainly affected by the Middle East situation and followed the raw material fluctuations [3] - Bottle chip's efficiency was good, the load increased significantly last week, the price was under pressure, and the monthly spread continued to weaken. The load decreased slightly in the new period [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene futures contract rose significantly. The domestic pure benzene's starting load decreased, downstream consumption increased, and the port inventory continued to decrease. The import volume was expected to decrease, and the East China port was expected to continue destocking [5] - The styrene futures contract rose significantly. The sharp rise in the pure benzene price provided strong support from the cost side. The production of styrene might increase slightly, the inventory might continue to decline, and the demand side was expected to weaken slowly [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures rose strongly. The import volume decreased, the MTO start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased, and the East China port continued to destock. The domestic methanol plant's start - up increased, the profit of inland olefin enterprises continued to rise, and the downstream plant's start - up load increased. The supply - demand situation was expected to be strong [6] - The urea futures continued to consolidate at a high level. The domestic output decreased slightly, the agricultural fertilizer demand declined, the start - up of industrial compound fertilizer and melamine plants increased, and the urea production enterprises continued to destock. The urea market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The overall supply increased slightly, the downstream procurement was poor, the inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased seasonally but was still at a relatively low level compared with history. The export was expected to improve from March to April [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. The liquid caustic soda inventory increased, the chlor - alkali profit continued to rise, the industry's capacity utilization rate increased, the high - strength caustic soda had good support from export orders, and the downstream alumina production was stable, but the downstream traders' enthusiasm for purchasing decreased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated. The industry inventory increased, the maintenance increased this week, the start - up and weekly production decreased, the rigid demand for float glass was stable, the photovoltaic glass had a serious oversupply, and there was a trend of cold repair and production reduction, which was expected to drag down the demand for soda ash [8] - Glass fluctuated. The industry continued to destock, but the intensity slowed down, the inventory pressure in the middle and upper reaches was large, and the downstream was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The production capacity fluctuated slightly, and the glass futures price was expected to fluctuate widely within a range [8]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Chaoyun Group has maintained high dividends for six consecutive years, with revenue and profit both showing year-on-year growth, indicating a sustainable growth outlook for its product matrix [4][5] - In 2025, Chaoyun Group achieved a revenue of 1.988 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.24%, and a net profit of 224 million RMB, up 9.98% year-on-year, with a comprehensive gross margin of 52.61% [4][5] - The company’s home care products performed well, with revenue from this segment reaching 1.715 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while the pet business saw a significant growth of 74.3% [5][6] Group 2 - Jianmin Group's revenue for 2025 was 3.370 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.85% year-on-year, but the fourth quarter showed a strong recovery with an 82.69% increase in net profit [10][11] - The pharmaceutical industrial segment of Jianmin Group reported a revenue of 2.025 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.91%, driven by strong sales of prescription and OTC products [11][12] - The company is focusing on brand development and innovation, with key products showing significant sales growth, indicating a strong recovery in its core business [11][12] Group 3 - The report on Yimeng Biotech indicates that the B7H3 ADC drug has shown excellent efficacy in treating metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), with promising clinical trial results [13][14] - The drug has received fast track designation from the FDA, highlighting its potential in the market [14][15] - The clinical study included 146 patients, showing a median radiographic progression-free survival of 11.3 months, indicating strong therapeutic potential [15][16] Group 4 - Pop Mart reported a revenue of 37.12 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 184.7%, with adjusted net profit rising by 284.5% [18][19] - The company has seen a significant increase in online sales, which accounted for 44.3% of total revenue, reflecting a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [21][22] - The number of IPs generating over 2 billion RMB in revenue has increased, with the "Star People" IP showing a remarkable growth of 1602% [25][26] Group 5 - CIMC Vehicles reported a revenue of 20.18 billion RMB in 2025, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, but with a strong performance in the Chinese market, where semi-trailer sales increased by 15% [28][29] - The company anticipates a recovery in the North American market in 2026, with significant order rebounds indicating a potential turnaround [29][30] - The report emphasizes the company's strategic positioning in the global market, particularly in the southern regions, which are expected to drive future growth [28][29] Group 6 - Power Development reported a revenue of 5.293 billion RMB in 2025, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year, but maintained a high profit margin despite market challenges [32][33] - The company achieved a high dividend payout ratio of 123%, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [33][34] - The report outlines ongoing projects that are expected to enhance production capacity significantly in the coming years, indicating strong growth potential [34][35] Group 7 - Bluestar Technology is recognized as a leader in adsorption separation materials, with significant growth driven by innovation and market demand in various sectors [37][38] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing market for small nucleic acid drugs, with projections indicating substantial growth in this area [38][39] - The report forecasts revenues of 2.733 billion RMB for 2025, with a strong growth trajectory expected in subsequent years [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The comprehensive profit of enterprises has rebounded to a high level, and short - term production is at a historical high. However, there are expectations of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance, so the March start - up rate is expected to decline gradually [11]. - Domestic demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, but overall domestic demand is under pressure. Although the time for canceling export tax rebates is approaching, there are expectations of production cuts overseas due to raw material shortages, and domestic production may be needed to fill the gap [11]. - The cost of calcium carbide and caustic soda has rebounded. In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price trend is mainly upward, but as the short - term increase is large, risks should be noted [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 3,165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 85 yuan. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali is oscillating at a high level, the profit of ethylene - based production is low, and the current valuation is neutral [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 80.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 85.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%; the ethylene method is 70.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. Some enterprises may start spring maintenance in March, and with the continuation of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, there is an expectation of a further decline in ethylene - based production load, and the overall load is expected to decline [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the export tax - rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the short - term effect of rush - exporting has declined. However, due to the shortage of raw materials in Asia, the reduction of the load in Northeast Asia may bring export growth opportunities. The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering from the Spring Festival holiday. The load of pipes is 41.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2%; the load of films is 59.3%, a month - on - month increase of 7.9%; the load of profiles is 37.4%, a month - on - month increase of 3%. The overall downstream load is 46%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 77.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 33.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 tons; the social inventory was 137.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 tons; the overall inventory was 171.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased seasonally. Currently, the ethylene - based production load is stable. Although the calcium carbide method has increased production due to improved profits, it is currently in the maintenance season, and ethylene - based production is expected to further reduce production. It is expected that the overall load in March will decline, and overseas exports are expected to be supported by the shortage of ethylene raw materials in Northeast Asia, and inventory is expected to be reduced in March [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided, including PVC term structure, PVC East China SG - 5 price, PVC spot basis, PVC 5 - 9 spread, PVC active contract positions and trading volume, and PVC total positions and trading volume, showing the price and trading volume trends from 2022 to 2026 [15][18][21][25][27] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory continues to decline, the social inventory is stable, the overall inventory is slowly decreasing, and the number of warehouse receipts is decreasing [32][40]. - **Profit**: Multiple charts show the profit trends of Shandong's externally purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, PVC calcium carbide method, PVC ethylene method, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide from 2022 to 2026 [43] 3.4. Cost Side - The price of calcium carbide continues to rebound. Charts show the price trends of Wuhai calcium carbide, Shandong calcium carbide, semi - coke in Shaanxi, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2022 to 2026, as well as the inventory and start - up rate of calcium carbide [49][53][56] 3.5. Supply Side - The historical trend of PVC capacity shows the growth rate situation. In 2025, a total of 250 tons of PVC production capacity was put into operation, including multiple enterprises using calcium carbide and ethylene methods. Charts also show the start - up rates of PVC calcium carbide method, ethylene method, overall start - up rate, and weekly output from 2022 to 2026 [60][64][67] 3.6. Demand Side - The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC are continuously recovering. Charts show the start - up rates of PVC downstream industries, profiles, films, pipes, export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, Chinese housing completion area rolling cumulative year - on - year, and also include the PVC industry chain and mind map [71][73][76][77][78][80][84][87][90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the supply - demand gap remains positive, exerting a negative impact on market sentiment and being transmitted to the price. In the next period, the supply - demand balance gap stays positive with a reduced absolute value. The overall supply - demand data has strengthened compared to the previous period, expected to enhance price support. However, inventory pressure is still high, and price increases may be relatively limited [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate is 76.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.79%; PE weekly output is 63.22 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.78% [9] Demand - The weighted operating rate of PE downstream has rebounded, with the downstream weighted operating rate at 39.75%, a month - on - month increase of 2.16% [9] Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory is 58.79 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.45%; social inventory is 60.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97% [9] Upstream and Cost - Not provided in the content Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price increased by 0.55% month - on - month to 8837 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 4.38% month - on - month to 8868 yuan/ton [9] Basis and Spread - The basis is - 30; the (5 - 9) spread is 129 [9]