2、商务部发布公告，不可靠实体清单工作机制决定将反无人机技术公司、TechInsights 公司及其分支 机构等 14 个外国实体列入不可靠实体清单； 3、多家券商将信用账户持有的中芯国际两融折算率由 0.7 调整为 0.00，佰维存储两融折算率由 0.5 调 整为 0.00；股票折算率调为 0 情况是券商统一动作，这一调整是依据规则开展常态化操作，当前折算率 为 0 股票数量已超千只； 4、现货黄金维持在 4000 美元左右的高位区间。有部分银行出于风控的考量，近期已经在收缩甚至取消 上金所的相关业务。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.07%/-0.27%/-0.43%/-0.90%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.38%/-1.20%/-1.76%/-3.87%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.53%/-1.59%/-2.59%/-5.48%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.11%/0.08%/0.18%/0.21%。 【策略观点】 文字早评 2025/10/10 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、商务部、海关总署：对超硬材料、部分稀土设备和原辅料、部分中重稀 ...

首席 点 评 ： 长假消费增势良好 股指： 美国三大指数下跌，国庆节后首个交易日股指开门红，有色金属板块领涨，传媒板块领跌，市 场成交额 2.67 万亿元。资金方面， 9 月 30 日融资余额减少 340.61 亿元至 23783.90 亿元。经过 9 月的 高位震荡，我们认为股指将再次进入方向选择阶段，从当前走势来看，大概率维持多头趋势。资金面来 看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加大权益类资产配置，同时，随着美联储降息、人民币升 值，外部资金也有望流入国内市场。市场风格方面，虽然科技成长已成为本轮市场趋势性上涨行情中最 核心的主线，但考虑到四季度稳增长政策有望加码、全球货币政策与财政政策有望共振，四季度市场风 格可能会向价值回归并较三季度更加均衡。 双焦： 昨日夜盘双焦盘面走势震荡，持仓量环比基本持平。从昨日公布的钢联数据来看，五大材供应 环比基本持平，但受长假的影响，五大材社会库存环比大幅增加、表需环比明显回落，库存增量主要由 螺纹贡献。短期来看，钢材的持续累库与盘面利润走缩、当前蒙煤通关高位的预期、节后高价资源的市 场接受度存疑、以及同期低位的近远月价差均会对盘面走势构成压力，但 10 月下旬的 ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国豆油行业市场供需态势及发展前景研判报告》 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年8月中国豆油进口数量为10万吨，同比增长113.9%，进口金额为1.03亿 美元，同比增长142.1%，。 近一年中国豆油进口情况统计图 ...

Group 1: Black Industry - Investment Rating: Adjustment - Core View: After the National Day, the trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The supply - demand patterns of iron ore, coal - coke, and steel products face challenges, while glass has short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations and long - term industry adjustment pressures [2] - Directory Summary: - Iron Ore: Overseas supply is rising, and although demand is currently okay, the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The main iron ore futures price has declined from its high. The 2601 contract is in high - level adjustment [2] - Coal - Coke: Coal supply is abundant, and the difficulty of price support for coking coal will increase. Coke price hikes are expected to be implemented, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The coke market follows coking coal, and attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: The supply - demand pattern of rebar is average, with weak downstream performance. The steel price is under pressure again. To reach the normal seasonal inventory level, production needs to decline by about 10000 tons. The 2601 contract is in weak shock operation [2] - Glass: The industry was called to raise prices, which may stimulate pre - holiday restocking. In the long run, the real estate industry is in adjustment. Attention should be paid to production and policy changes during the holiday [2] Group 2: Financial Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, rebound, etc.) - Core View: The market is affected by policies and economic data. The stock index market has different trends, and the bond market is under pressure. Gold shows a relatively strong shock trend [3][4] - Directory Summary: - Stock Index Futures/Options: The stock index market has different trends. The Politburo meeting emphasized high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. The new policy financial tools may boost investment. It is recommended to control risk preferences [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has risen, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. Treasury bond bulls should hold lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. Factors such as central bank gold purchases, currency credit issues, and geopolitical risks support the price. It is expected to be in a relatively strong shock [4] Group 3: Light Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including range shock, consolidation, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of different products in the light industry are different, and the price trends are also diverse [5] - Directory Summary: - Logs: The supply is tightening, the cost support is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be in range shock [5] - Pulp: The cost support is increasing, but the demand is not strong. It is expected to be in bottom - level consolidation [5] - Offset Paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to improve, but the profit is low. It is expected to be in shock [5] Group 4: Oil and Fat Industry - Investment Rating: Wide - range shock, shock - bearish - Core View: The supply - demand relationships of oils and fats are complex, affected by factors such as production, policy, and inventory. The supply of meal products is relatively loose [5] - Directory Summary: - Oils: The supply pressure of palm oil is increasing, but there are also factors such as production reduction and policy changes. The supply of domestic soybean oil is abundant. It is expected that oils will be in wide - range shock [5] - Meal Products: The supply of domestic soybean meal is loose, and the export of US soybeans is weak. It is expected that meal products will be in shock - bearish trend [5] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Investment Rating: Shock - strong, shock - weak - Core View: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand has short - term fluctuations. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] - Directory Summary: - Live Pigs: The average trading weight is declining, the demand for pre - holiday stocking is increasing, but the sales pressure is also rising. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] Group 6: Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, wait - and - see, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of soft commodities and polyester products are complex, and the price trends are different [7][8] - Directory Summary: - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in wide - range shock [8] - PX: There are potential supply risks, and the supply - demand is decreasing. The price follows oil prices [8] - PTA: The cost support may weaken, and the supply - demand is marginally weakening. The price follows cost fluctuations [8] - MEG: The supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term price is affected by cost fluctuations [8] - PR: The market trading is expected to be dull, and the price is expected to be stable [8] - PF: The cost support may weaken, and the market may have narrow - range consolidation [8]

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 9 月 30 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 华东转三级菜油：现货：OI2601+250，10-11 月：OI2601+260。华东转一级 菜油：10 月：OI260 ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat futures market is expected to fluctuate, and investors can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, selling put - type strategies on dips can be considered [11]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2601 contract were 8150, 9234, and 10093 respectively, with changes of (12), (2), and (69). The spot basis of different varieties in various regions also showed different trends. For example, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 330 with no change, and in Tianjin it was 170 with a decrease of 20 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 238, 174, and 503 respectively, with changes of 2, (10), and (17) [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were (1084), 1943, and 859 respectively, with changes of (10), (57), and (67). The oil - meal ratio was 2.78 with a change of (0.0003) [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the October shipment had a CNF price of 1096 and a negative profit of (119); the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the November shipment was 1069 and a negative profit of (433) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 38th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 123.6, 58.5, and 58.6 million tons respectively, compared with 125.1, 64.2, and 61.0 million tons last week and 115.6, 50.6, and 40.5 million tons in the same period last year [3]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the next few months, reaching around 1.7 million metric tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports to meet holiday demand [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 26, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.29 million tons or 5.62% from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 150. The basis is stable. The short - term market lacks a clear driver but has strong bottom support, and it is recommended to consider light - position buying on significant dips [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 226.72 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.28%. As of September 26, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 124.87 million tons, an increase of 1.28 million tons or 1.04% from last week. The short - term domestic supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. Considering the uncertainty of U.S. soybean imports, it is recommended to consider buying on significant dips [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 2 million tons, with an operating rate of 5.33%. As of September 26, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons or 2.2%. The European rapeseed oil FOB price has increased, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 450. The market has a sentiment of holding back sales, and the basis is stable with an increase. The coastal de - stocking trend is expected to continue. Considering the uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect the oil and fat futures market to fluctuate, and consider buying on dips [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Consider selling put - type strategies on dips [11]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the historical trends of spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, including data from 2016 - 2025 [14][17].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月29日 | | | | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 臣治 | | | | | | | | 9月26日 | | 0月25日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8470 | | 8440 | 30 | 0.36% | | 期价 | Y2601 8162 | | 8192 | -30 | -0.37% | | 墓差 | Y2601 308 | | 248 | 60 | 24.19% | | 现货墓差报价 | 01+220 江苏1月 | | 01+230 | -10 | r | | 仓单 | 25534 | | 25534 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 9月26日 | | 9月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 9230 | | 9170 | 60 | 0.65% | | 期分 | P2601 9236 | | 9222 | 14 | ...

研究报告 油脂周报 【重要资讯】： 7 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 29 星期一 榈油方面：船运调查机构 ITS 数据显示，马来西亚 9 月 1-25 日棕榈油出口量为 1288462 吨，较上月同期出口的 1141661 吨增 加 12.9%。马来西亚独立检验机构 Amspec 表示，马来西亚 9 月 1-25 日的棕榈油出口量为 1185422 吨，上月同期为 1065005 吨，环比 增加 11.3%。棕榈油下跌 0.63%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价探底回升，全周豆油 Y2601 合约下跌 1.99%， 以 8162 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2601 合约下跌 0.85%以 9236 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2601 合约上涨 0.93%，以 10162 元/吨报收。 豆油方面：9 月 22 日，阿根廷政府为增加外汇供给以缓解比 索贬值压力，宣布调整关税政策：自即日起至 10 月 31 日，将全 面取消大豆、谷物及其制成品的出口关税，其中大豆出口关税由 26%降至零，豆油和豆粕出口关税也由 24.5%降至零。9 月 2 ...

Key Points of the Report Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation, with the 9 - month stock index in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - For bonds, it is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds, as the central bank's policy adjustment awaits central government deployment, and the equity market is strengthening [14]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the outlook for various products varies. For example, crude oil's future depends on OPEC's production increase; methanol is short - term bearish; rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range; and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [15][16][17][19]. - Regarding metals, copper is supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages; zinc may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; and lithium carbonate may oscillate in the short - term with demand and inventory factors at play [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural product sector, protein meal may oscillate at a low level; some oils are showing signs of rebound; and cotton and sugar are expected to have complex short - term trends influenced by supply and demand [27][28][30][31]. - The shipping index of container shipping to Europe may be in a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the focus on shipping companies' price increases and capacity adjustment [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Situation - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.69297 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in the previous month. The equipment manufacturing industry was a major driver, with 7 out of 8 sub - industries seeing profit growth [1]. - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, exceeding the expected 0.2% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Analysis Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, while the previous trading day's stock index declined. The oil and petrochemical sector led the gain, and the computer sector led the decline, with a market turnover of 2.17 trillion yuan. On September 25, the margin trading balance increased by 13.288 billion yuan to 2.427411 trillion yuan [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity, but the cross - festival capital tightened. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, and the US GDP growth rate was revised up. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds [13][14]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.21%. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a historical high. Methanol is short - term bearish [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures oscillated. Supply in some areas improved, and bonded area inventory decreased. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound at night. The price generally fluctuated with the cost. It may continue to oscillate in a low - level range, with attention on demand and supply - side policies [18][19]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The short - term market supply and demand are slowly recovering, and attention is on the supply - side contraction. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The market has a positive expectation for the glass industry's supply change [4][20]. Metals - **Copper**: The copper price at night decreased by 0.7%. The concentrate supply has been tight, but the smelting output has been growing. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply shortage, supporting the long - term price [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night decreased by 1.25%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply may be in surplus, and the price may fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased. The bullish logic has been weakened, and the price may oscillate in the short - term [23]. - **Double Cokes**: The double - coke futures were weak at night. The steel fundamentals put pressure on coking coal, and investors are advised to operate cautiously before the holiday [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' demand for iron ore is supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of billets is strong. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period has ended. The domestic market may oscillate at a low level [27]. - **Oils**: The price of soybean oil declined slightly at night, while rapeseed and palm oil were strong. After the digestion of the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, the oil price rebounded [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, but also dragged by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market is affected by the new cotton harvest. The price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated and declined on Friday. The SCFI European line price decreased. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, and the contract may shift to the 12 - month contract. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [32]. 3. News Summaries - **International News**: Ukrainian drones attacked Russian refineries, causing fuel shortages in some Russian regions. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban [3][6][15]. - **Domestic News**: The "Super Golden Week" of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The tourism market is booming, with changes in travel patterns and consumer preferences [7]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires supporting Xinjiang to improve grain production capacity, promote cotton seed breeding, and develop characteristic industries [8][9].