期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年12月15日 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 从业资格证号： F3063825 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 11月消费投资低于预期 摘要 11月固定资产投资增速和社零增长均低于市场预期。11出口增速 超市场预期。11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长低于市场预期， 11月服务业生产指数同比增速较10月回落0.4个百分点。11月国内房 地产销量同比和房价继续下行，12月上旬的数据也表现如此。截至今 年10月底，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已全部完成投放，11月的 投资数据未表现出明显改观。中美在10月末元首会晤之后，不断拉长 合作清单、压缩问题清单，相对稳定的国际环境有利于中国出口。出 口信心稳定则有利民间投资增长。 1-11月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，市场预期下降2.2 %，1-10月份为同比下降1.7%。分类来看，1-11月份广义基建投 ...

Core Insights - Xinjiang's consumer market is experiencing significant growth, driven by improved consumption patterns and an increase in retail sales [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, Xinjiang's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 294.034 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1] - The retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines in large enterprises increased by 15.5%, while cultural and office supplies saw a remarkable growth of 48.2% [1] Group 2: Consumer Goods Growth - Sales of daily necessities are steadily increasing, with retail sales of beverages, grain and oil products, daily goods, and tobacco and alcohol rising by 16.0%, 14.2%, 11.7%, and 7.7% respectively [1] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 18.38 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 33.2%, accounting for 37.5% of the total retail sales in the automotive sector [1]

Core Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China from January to September 2025 increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with a growth of 3% in September [1][2] - The growth rates for tobacco and alcohol consumption from 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 2.3%, 10.6%, and 5.5% respectively [2] - Urban retail sales in September reached 35,783 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 6,188 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.0% [2] Retail Performance - In the first nine months, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 316,838 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.4% for urban areas and 49,039 billion yuan for rural areas, with a growth of 4.6% [2] - In September, the retail sales of goods were 37,462 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while the catering revenue was 4,509 billion yuan, growing by 0.9% [2] Retail Formats - From January to September, the retail sales growth rates for various retail formats were as follows: convenience stores at 6.4%, supermarkets at 4.4%, department stores at 0.9%, specialty stores at 4.8%, and brand exclusive stores at 1.5% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for Macau's export situation has turned slightly optimistic among surveyed manufacturers for the next six months, with a notable increase in positive sentiment compared to the previous quarter [1] Export Outlook - In the second quarter of 2025, the main export products include garments, pharmaceuticals, electronic products/appliances, tobacco and alcohol, and metal products [1] - The European Union is identified as the market with the best export outlook, with a market quarterly order situation composite index change of 25.1% [1] Order Situation - The average number of months of orders on hand for surveyed manufacturers in the second quarter is 2.7 months, with pharmaceuticals leading at 4.4 months, followed by garment manufacturing at 3.2 months, and electronics/appliances at 2.5 months; other non-textile products have an order duration of 1.2 months [1] Future Export Expectations - 53.1% of surveyed manufacturers expect no significant change in export outlook over the next six months, an increase of 32.3 percentage points from the previous quarter's 20.8% [1] - 27.3% of manufacturers are optimistic about the export outlook, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter's 26.9% [1] - The percentage of manufacturers with a pessimistic view on export prospects has significantly decreased to 19.6%, down 32.7 percentage points from the previous quarter's 52.3% [1]

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its full island closure operation in December 2025, attracting significant commercial interest [1] - The Chinese government is researching tax policies for duty-free consumption of certain imported goods by residents, aiming to enhance the attractiveness of the duty-free shopping policy [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the introduction of more favorable duty-free policies will primarily benefit industries with high import tariffs, such as luxury goods, cosmetics, and alcoholic beverages [1][2] Group 2 - Since the implementation of the new duty-free policy in Hainan in July 2020, the shopping amount has reached 195.82 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the number of shoppers and items purchased [2] - The overall tax burden on imported goods has been reduced by approximately 38% due to the duty-free policy, which has encouraged growth in the alcoholic beverage sector [2] - The introduction of new duty-free policies is expected to further stimulate consumption in the beverage market, despite competition from cross-border e-commerce [2][3] Group 3 - Additional favorable policies are anticipated to benefit not only consumer goods industries but also companies requiring large amounts of imported ecological and technological raw materials [3] - The tourism industry, low-altitude economy, and shipping sectors are also expected to gain from the evolving duty-free policies in Hainan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Jilin Provincial Market Supervision Administration is actively conducting the "Guarding Consumption" and "Thunder 2025" enforcement actions to address violations related to consumer safety and rights protection, focusing on key products and industries. Group 1: Enforcement Actions - The Longcheng District Market Supervision Bureau in Changchun investigated a clothing studio for selling goods that infringed on trademark rights, resulting in the confiscation of infringing products and a fine [2] - The Nanguan District Market Supervision Bureau in Changchun also took action against a clothing store for selling goods that violated trademark rights, leading to similar penalties [3] - The Longtan District Market Supervision Bureau in Jilin City found a liquor store selling goods that infringed on trademark rights, resulting in confiscation and fines [4] - The Lishu County Market Supervision Bureau investigated an electric bicycle shop for selling products that did not meet national standards, leading to penalties [5] - The Yalu River City Market Supervision Bureau found a company using misleading packaging and branding that closely resembled a well-known brand, resulting in penalties for unfair competition [6][7] - The Baishan City Market Supervision Bureau penalized a trading company for false advertising regarding health benefits of a product, which was found to be a regular food item [8] - The Songyuan City Market Supervision Bureau penalized an electric bicycle shop for selling non-compliant products, including discrepancies in vehicle coding [9] - The Meihekou City Market Supervision Bureau investigated an automotive maintenance center for selling goods that infringed on trademark rights, resulting in confiscation and fines [10] Group 2: Future Actions - The provincial market supervision departments will continue to conduct special enforcement actions against various illegal activities in the consumer sector, maintaining a high-pressure stance to protect consumer and business rights [10]

Group 1: Subsidy Analysis - Land subsidies for the industrial sector in 70 cities averaged 1.45 trillion annually from 2017 to 2024, accounting for approximately 1.3% of national GDP[1] - In 2023, tax incentives for the manufacturing sector's corporate income tax were about 730 billion, representing 0.56% of GDP[1] - The average industrial land price in 2024 was 497 yuan per square meter, significantly lower than residential land prices, creating a price gap that benefits industrial sectors[1] Group 2: Tax Burden Disparities - In 2023, the lowest tax burdens were in Guangxi (8.5%), Fujian (8.6%), and Hunan (8.7%), while the highest were in Beijing (34.5%) and Shanghai (33.4%)[1] - The tax burden in the eastern region was 16.4%, higher than the central (10.7%), western (12.4%), and northeastern (12.7%) regions[1] - The manufacturing sector's tax burden was 16.8%, with high burdens in finance, real estate, and heavy industries[1] Group 3: Industry and Regional Insights - In 2023, the automotive manufacturing sector in Hebei had a profit margin of 1.9% and a tax burden of 2.7%, indicating potential internal competition issues[1] - The electrical machinery sector in Shaanxi had a profit margin of 2.3% and a tax burden of 1.8%, suggesting similar competitive pressures[1] - The electronic equipment sector in Anhui reported a profit margin of -0.6% and a tax burden of 1.1%, highlighting challenges in profitability[1] Group 4: Transition in Government Behavior - Local governments are shifting from "race to the bottom" competition, characterized by lowering costs, to "race to the top," focusing on improving the business environment and innovation[1] - This transition is driven by pressures from the real estate market, changes in industrial policy, and tax reforms aimed at optimizing consumption environments[1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of China's retail sector in June 2025, highlighting a slowdown in growth rates across various categories of consumer goods, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and changes in promotional cycles [2][8]. Retail Performance Summary - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May [2]. - For the first half of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 24.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Category-Specific Insights - Supermarket sector saw a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in grain and oil products, but this was a decline of 5.9 percentage points from May [3]. - Beverage sales dropped by 4.4% year-on-year, with a decrease of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Daily necessities experienced a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points from May [3]. Apparel and Cosmetics - Textile and apparel retail sales grew by 1.9% year-on-year, down 2.1 percentage points from May [4]. - Cosmetic sales fell by 2.3% year-on-year, a significant drop of 6.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. Jewelry and Electronics - The gold and jewelry sector reported a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, but this was a decline of 15.7 percentage points from May [5]. - Home appliances saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 32.4%, although this represented a decrease of 20.6 percentage points from the previous month [6]. Other Categories - Tobacco and alcohol retail sales decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, down 11.9 percentage points from May [7]. - Communication equipment sales grew by 13.9% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 19.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - Cultural and office supplies saw a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, down 6.1 percentage points from May [7]. Market Dynamics - The slowdown in retail sales growth in June is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and the elongation of promotional cycles, leading to an earlier release of consumer demand [8]. - Essential goods experienced a decline in growth rates, with beverages and tobacco categories showing negative year-on-year growth [8]. - Optional goods, particularly in the gold and jewelry sector, faced demand suppression due to fluctuating gold prices, resulting in a decrease in growth rates [8].

Core Insights - The consumer market in May showed significant recovery, driven by effective consumption policies, early promotional events, and increased holiday periods, leading to a notable rise in consumer demand [1][4] Group 1: Market Sales Performance - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, with an acceleration of 1.3 percentage points compared to April, representing the highest monthly growth rate in 2024 [1] - The retail sales in county and rural markets grew by 5.4% from January to May, outpacing urban retail sales growth by 0.6 percentage points, with the county and rural market accounting for 38.9% of total retail sales, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Product Category Growth - In May, retail sales of goods increased by 6.5%, with nearly 90% of product categories in large retail units experiencing growth. Notable increases were seen in sports and entertainment goods (28.3%), staple food (14.6%), and tobacco and alcohol (11.2%) [1] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in categories such as home appliances (53%) and communication equipment (33%), with growth rates accelerating by 14.2 and 13.1 percentage points respectively compared to April [2] Group 3: Online and Offline Retail Dynamics - From January to May, online retail sales of physical goods grew by 6.3%, outpacing overall retail sales growth by 1.3 percentage points, with online sales accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [3] - Physical retail stores showed stable improvement, with retail sales in large retail units growing by 4.5% from January to May, with warehouse membership stores exceeding 30% growth [3] Group 4: Service Retail Market Trends - Service retail sales increased by 5.2% from January to May, slightly outpacing goods retail growth, driven by enhanced service offerings and diverse consumption scenarios [4] - The tourism and dining sectors saw significant growth, with dining revenue increasing by 5.0% compared to the previous period, reflecting a strong recovery in consumer spending [4]

Group 1 - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Australia for April 2025 shows a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.3% [1] - The monthly inflation rate, excluding volatile items like fruits, vegetables, and automotive fuel, rose to 2.8% in April from 2.6% in March [1] - The trimmed mean inflation rate, a key indicator of core inflation, increased from 2.7% to 2.8%, remaining within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2-3% [1][2] Group 2 - Specific price changes in April include a 3.1% year-on-year increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages, down from 3.4% in March, and a decrease in tobacco and alcohol prices from 6.7% to 5.7% [1] - Housing prices increased from 1.8% to 2.2%, with rental prices decreasing from 5.2% to 5% and new housing prices rising from 1% to 1.2% [1] - Electricity prices shifted from a decline of 9.6% to a decline of 6.5%, while furniture and household equipment prices rose from 0.6% to 1% [2]