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广发期货《黑色》日报-20251010
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:51
| 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3230 | 10 | 144 | | 3200 | 10 | 114 | | 3310 | 10 | 224 | | 螺纹钢05合约 螺纹钢10合约 | 3159 3020 | 3128 2989 | 31 31 | 81 220 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3096 | 3072 | 24 | 144 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3350 | 3330 | 20 | 64 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3290 | 3280 | 10 | ব | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3320 | 3310 | 10 | -50 | | | 热券05合约 | 3293 | 3259 | 34 | 64 | | | 热卷10合约 | 3370 | 3384 | -14 | -20 | | 热卷01合约 成本和利润 | 以年44円円 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | ...
《黑色》日报-20251009
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 03:20
| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年10月9日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3230 | 3240 | -10 | 158 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3220 | -20 | 128 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3310 | 3320 | -10 | 238 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3128 | 3155 | -27 | 102 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2989 | 3005 | -16 | 241 | | | | | | -25 | 158 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3072 | 3097 | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3330 | 3350 | -20 | 17 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3280 | 3290 | - ...
程强:三季度成长板块领涨市场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-01 05:30
程强系德邦证券研究所所长、首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 PART.01 市场概览 2025年9月30日周二,A股市场震荡分化上行,科技股维持强势;30年期国债期货新低后反弹收涨;期货 分化明显,黄金领涨,焦煤领跌。 PART.02 市场行情分析 1)股票市场:三季度收官,创业科创均涨约50% 市场震荡上行。今日作为国庆中秋双节前最后一个交易日,A股市场呈现分化上行格局。上证指数收涨 0.52%,报3882.78点;创业板指收平、科创50收涨1.69%,二者盘中均再创年内新高。全市场成交额约 2.20万亿,较前一交易日略有放量,但较9月25日(2.39万亿)、23日(2.52万亿)等近期高位有所回 落,显示节前部分资金趋于谨慎,兑现获利需求显现。从月度情况看,9月成交额整体维持在2万亿元以 上,市场流动性充裕,支撑结构性行情展开。 节前最后一日,风格有所分化。今日成长板块延续强势,金融等防御性板块表现承压,半导体(存储芯 片涨价催化)、锂电设备(固态电池产业化提速)等表现突出,反映资金对科技成长赛道的持续关注; 周期板块方面,美联储降息后金、铜商品价格均表现强势,且9月PMI回升至49.8%创近6个月 ...
广发早知道:汇总版-20250926
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:46
广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88818009 E-Mail:zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录: 金融期货: 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属: 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货: 有色金属: 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属: 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品: 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工: 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品: 金融衍生品: 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 9 月 26 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息: 张晓珍(投资咨询资格:Z0003135) 电话:020- 88818009 邮箱:zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂(投资咨询资格:Z0016336) 电话:020-88818026 邮箱:qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁(投资咨询资格:Z0016628) 电话:020- 88818017 邮箱:yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波(投资咨 ...
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250925
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:37
| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月25日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 副自 | 张庆 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 3270 | 10 | 116 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3230 | 3230 | O | ୧୧ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3370 | 3360 | 10 | 206 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3227 | 3212 | 15 | ਦੇਤੋ | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3071 | 3063 | 8 | 209 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3164 | 3155 | 9 | 116 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3400 | 3390 | 10 | 43 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3330 | 3330 | O | -27 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...
09/24复盘:昨日玻璃精准布局,虽有回落但是趋势已成佩斯点火
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 09:51
期货市场风云变幻,每一次价格跳动都暗藏机遇与挑战!无论你是紧盯原油、黄金的趋势交易者,还是 深耕农产品、金属的产业客户,这里都为你准备了: 实时行情解读:聚焦持仓变化、资金流向,透视 多空博弈本质 策略干货分享:从技术面突破信号到基本面供需拐点,拆解核心交易逻辑 风险预警提 示:提前研判地缘政策、库存数据等潜在黑天鹅事件每日更新 玻璃2601合约: 基本面:9 月 24 日市场有关玻璃企业开会的传闻推动盘面情绪大幅走高,"号召行业涨价" 及 "反内卷" 相关的消息及推测,带动玻璃盘面午盘后大幅增仓拉涨,盘中涨幅一度超 6%,临近收盘多头减仓价格 回调。盘面大幅拉涨带动现货报价上调,部分区域个别企业报价上涨高达 100 元 / 吨。 技术面:昨天精准布局玻璃1180布局多单,经过下午拉升后玻璃短线或将调整,但是趋势已成看后续延 续上涨 操作建议:下方支撑1180下方可以尝试性做多 基本面:钢铁行业产能管控和环保限产政策持续影响市场供应,国家持续推进 "双碳" 目标,对钢铁行 业生产形成一定约束。五部门发文推动钢铁行业稳增长,对市场情绪有一定提振作用。此前云南省主要 钢企负责人召开座谈会,试图通过区域协同打破 " ...
广发早知道:汇总版-20250924
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 06:24
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].
政策扰动市场情绪,板块品种价格仍有?撑
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 06:14
政策扰动市场情绪,板块品种价格仍有 ⽀撑 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-23 昨⽇《钢铁⾏业稳增⻓⼯作⽅案(2025—2026年)》出台,强调" ⾏业增加值年均增⻓4%左右"和"严禁新增产能",与现⾏的⾏业 增速以及市场预期⼀致,致使"反内卷"情绪再度降温,板块品种期 价受此影响⼩幅回调,夜盘时段围绕⽇盘低点震荡运⾏。但结合产业 链⾃⾝,保持旺季背景下的边际改善,叠加市场对于四季度重磅会议 仍有预期,因此板块品种价格仍有⽀撑。 昨日《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》出台,强调"行 业增加值年均增长4%左右"和"严禁新增产能",与现行的行业增速 以及市场预期一致,致使"反内卷"情绪再度降温,板块品种期价受 此影响小幅回调,夜盘时段围绕日盘低点震荡运行。但结合产业链自 身,保持旺季背景下的边际改善,叠加市场对于四季度重磅会议仍有 预期,因此板块品种价格仍有支撑。 1、铁元素方面,铁矿发运回落、但仍维持高位水平,上周到港量因 前期台风扰动节奏而大幅增加,但当前我国海域再现台风影响,因此 预计到港量仍有扰动。反观铁矿需求保持高位水平,国 ...
黑色金属日报-20250919
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 11:55
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Steel is expected to oscillate strongly, constrained by weak demand expectations and supported by "anti - involution" and Fed rate cuts [2] - Iron ore is likely to oscillate at a high level in the short term, influenced by high supply, short - term demand support, and expectations of macro - policies [3] - Coke and coking coal are likely to oscillate strongly, with sufficient carbon supply, high - level downstream iron - water providing support, and pre - National Day restocking sentiment [4][6] - Ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, with improved price valuations and the impact of "anti - involution" [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Thread demand improved this week with reduced production and inventory, while hot - rolled demand declined with increased production and re - accumulated inventory [2] - High - speed blast furnace复产, but limited by poor profit per ton, and attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [2] - Downstream industries have weak domestic demand, but steel exports remain high, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [2] Iron Ore - Global shipments are high, domestic arrivals decreased slightly, and port inventory decreased this week [3] - Terminal demand is weak, but high - level iron - water and pre - holiday restocking by steel mills support short - term demand [3] - The market expects macro - policies, and external factors like Fed rate cuts influence the market, with short - term high - level oscillation expected [3] Coke - There is still an expectation of the third round of price cuts, and some coking plants started the first round of price increases, with intensified competition [4] - Coking profit is average, daily production slightly decreased, and overall inventory increased [4] - Ample carbon supply, high - level downstream iron - water, and pre - National Day restocking make the price relatively firm and likely to oscillate strongly [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal mine production increased slightly, and pre - National Day restocking sentiment is strong [6] - Total coking coal inventory increased, production - end inventory decreased slightly, and the possibility of further large - scale capacity release is low [6] - Ample carbon supply, high - level downstream iron - water, and pre - National Day restocking make the price relatively firm and likely to oscillate strongly [6] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Iron - water production continued to rise, and ferrosilicon manganese production increased to a high level [7] - Ferrosilicon manganese inventory did not increase, and demand for futures and spot is good [7] - Manganese ore prices increased, and with "anti - involution", the price is likely to rise [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron - water production continued to rise, export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, and secondary demand declined slightly [8] - Ferrosilicon supply returned to a high level, market demand for futures and spot is good, and on - balance inventory decreased slightly [8] - With improved price valuation and "anti - involution", the price is likely to rise [8]
《黑色》日报-20250919
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:49
Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current pricing of steel is affected by weak steel demand and the expected contraction of coal supply. With the impact of the contraction in coking coal supply and restocking before the National Day, the downside space is expected to be limited, and the price will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3260 to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3399 to 3367 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of some steel products changed slightly, and the profit of most steel products decreased. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased from 173 to 168 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), while the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5 (- 0.2%). The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7 (0.3%) [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3 (0.8%), and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0 (6.0%) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias in a range - bound manner, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is suggested to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract at low levels and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 - contract for multiple varieties decreased significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 - contract for PB powder decreased from 80.1 to 40.3 (- 49.7%) [4]. - **Supply**: The global shipment volume of iron ore last week increased significantly by 816.9 to 3573.1 (29.6%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3 (- 3.5%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3 (4.2%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41 (- 0.3%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1 (0.6%) [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300 [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 22 to 1657 (1.3%). The price of the coking coal 01 - contract decreased by 30 to 1204 (- 2.4%) [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6 (5.1%). The output of raw coal in main producing areas increased by 11.4 to 872.5 (1.3%) [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2 (1.0%), with coking plants reducing inventory and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly, with coal mines, ports, and steel mills reducing inventory and washing plants, coking plants, and ports increasing inventory [6].