2026 年石化化工年度策略 20251127 摘要 化工行业正经历探底，前期新能源需求激增导致资本开支过度，造成供 需错配。2024 年资本开支已明显收缩，未来新增产能受限，叠加全球 降息周期和贸易关系缓和，需求端有望复苏，利好股票交易策略。 预计 2026 年原油价格维持在 60 美元/桶左右，OPEC+暂停增产及美国 页岩油产量收缩是主要支撑因素。天然气需求受益于清洁能源转型和政 策推动，长期消费量仍有较大增长空间，利好中石油等上游企业。 国际钾肥价格 2026 年预计维持高位，受益于自然需求增长和寡头垄断 格局。中国钾肥资源依赖性强，国内相关企业如亚钾国际或将迎来放量。 磷化工方面，储能领域对磷矿石价值重估，需求坚挺，国内磷矿石稀缺 性凸显。 中石油受益于天然气业务的稳定增长和上游改革带来的盈利修复，业绩 表现将逐渐脱敏于油价波动。中石化则有望受益于炼化环节业务修复， 低成本优势和海外裂解价差扩大将促进成品油出口业务恢复。 2026 年储能领域对磷矿石的需求预计快速增长，磷矿石在电池端的应 用占比接近 20%，且随着国内磷矿石品位下降，消耗系数将进一步提高， 推动磷矿石价格和价值重估，利好配套磷酸铁前 ...

能源化工|专题报告 聚酯产业链专题报告 2025 年 11 月 27 日 产能扩张高峰已过 供需关系将好转 能源化工研究团队 交易咨询业务资格编号 贾万敬 从业资格号：F03086791 投资咨询号：Z0016549 PX 新增装置计划较少 开工率提升空间不大 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 2019-2023 年，PX 新装置持续投产，这几年时间 PX 产能增速均较高，自 2023 年下半年，暂时没有 PX 新装置投产。根据装置投产计划，2026 年底之前 主要有山东裕龙石化、九江石化和华锦阿美三套装置，合计 580 万吨/年。即便 顺利投产，产能规模较前几年投产高峰时也有明显回落。从 2024-2025 年的 PX 开工率表现来看，PX 开工率难有较大的提升空间。 PTA 将进入新产能投产空档期 开工率有一定提升空间 2019-2025 年，我国 PTA 产能持续扩张，个别年份增幅较高。2025 年，盛 虹石化、海伦石化和独山能源有三套新装置投产，新装置合计规模 840 万吨/年， 不过剔除蓬威石化 90 万吨/年长停装置后，本年度 PTA 产能净增 750 万吨/年。 2026 年，PTA ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the petrochemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase after a downturn, with expectations for improved profitability and demand growth in the coming years [1][2]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has shown stability, with a net inflow of funds in 8 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 24.13 million yuan, and its latest share count reaching a record high of 227 million [1]. - According to Guosen Securities, the petrochemical industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability by the third quarter of 2025, with a projected year-on-year net profit growth of 10.56% [1]. Group 2 - The petrochemical industry is characterized by significant cyclicality, having peaked in profitability in 2021 and entering a downward cycle thereafter [1]. - Supply-side factors indicate a decline in capital expenditure over several quarters, signaling the end of the expansion cycle, while policies aimed at reducing excess capacity are expected to alleviate supply surplus issues [1]. - On the demand side, a global interest rate reduction cycle is anticipated to support a moderate recovery in traditional demand, with emerging sectors such as new energy storage, AI, and aviation decarbonization driving growth in specific chemical products [1]. Group 3 - The composition of the Petrochemical ETF closely follows the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.85% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.16% [2]. - The industry is shifting focus from quantity growth to quality improvement, with expectations for sustained upward trends in supply-demand dynamics [2].

从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近3天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"1310.40万元。份额方面，石化ETF最新份额达2.27亿份，创近1年新高。规模方 面，石化ETF最新规模达1.84亿元，创近1年新高。 截至2025年11月26日9:35，中证石化产业指数上涨0.3%，成分股亚钾国际、广东宏大、新凤鸣、华峰化学、荣盛石化等领涨。石化ETF(159731)上涨0.12%， 最新价报0.81元。 截至11月24日，石化ETF近6月净值上涨22.83%。从收益能力看，截至2025年11月25日，石化ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.86%，最长连涨月数为6个 月，最长连涨涨幅为23.51%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.06%。截至2025年11月25日，石化ETF近6个月超越基准年化收益为4.92%。 华创证券认为，三季报结束，年底化工有望再迎布局期。三季报到年报出炉，市场面临5个月的业绩空窗期，投资人面临布局明年和风格切换的需要，其认 为，化工是值得布局的选择之一。化工行业的整体加权开工率在历史高点，而价差还在底部，距离反转还需要看到库存的去化，但已经有零星品种率先走出 底部反转趋势。石化化工行业稳增长工作 ...

《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》(以下简称《工作方案》)提出，实施安全化改造。制 定实施《加力推进石化化工行业老旧装置更新改造行动方案》，健全支撑老旧装置科学评估和对标改造 的标准体系，建立老旧装置改造升级项目库，支持老旧装置综合改造提升，推进重点监管的危险工艺加 快全流程自动化改造或低风险替代。2025年底前全面完成城镇人口密集区危险化学品生产企业搬迁改 造。 统计数据显示，运行20年及以上的老旧装置在化工多个细分行业占比偏高，其中炼油行业老旧装置规模 达3亿吨/年以上，硫酸、合成氨等行业老旧装置规模分别超1000万吨/年。这些装置普遍存在绿色低碳 技术应用不足、数字化智能化水平不高、规模偏小等问题，导致运行效率低、能效水平低、安全隐患 大、环保压力大。对此，《工作方案》明确提出制定实施《加力推进石化化工行业老旧装置更新改造行 动方案》，支持老旧装置综合改造提升。石油和化学工业规划院副院长、教授级高级工程师郑宝山认 为，这种"控增量、改存量"的模式，能在改善供求关系的同时，推动装置本质安全提升与产品升级。 中国化学品安全协会专家刘璐表示，目前我国石化企业尚存在老旧装置隐患整改不积极、未 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.023 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.61%, while Q3 net profit reached 1.972 billion yuan, showing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 81.47% and 97.41% respectively [1] Financial Performance - The recovery of PX price differentials contributed to improved profitability in Q3 [1] - The company is expected to balance performance growth and shareholder returns effectively as capital expenditures are anticipated to slow down with the commissioning of ongoing projects [1] Industry Outlook - The petrochemical industry is expected to benefit from policy support, leading to scientific regulation of refining capacity and accelerated transformation and upgrading of the petrochemical sector [1] - As a leading private refining enterprise, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on these industry trends [1] Profit Forecast - Projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 7.133 billion, 9.485 billion, and 11.421 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19x, 15x, and 12x [1] - Based on historical valuation averages and the current cycle position, a target price of 27.00 yuan for 2026 is set, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index increasing by approximately 0.4%, driven by strong performances from constituent stocks such as Tongcheng New Materials, Shengquan Group, and Kaisa Bio [1] - The third Petrochemical Industry High-Quality Development Forum emphasized the need for a high-quality transformation and upgrading of the petrochemical industry, focusing on new productive forces, innovation, green development, and safety [1] - Guosen Securities noted that stricter approval for new chemical product capacities and the accelerated elimination of outdated capacities will effectively alleviate the oversupply issue in the petrochemical and chemical industry [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) closely tracks the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, with the top three sectors being refining and trading (26.76%), chemical products (22.41%), and agricultural chemicals (21.14%) [2] - The petrochemical industry is expected to benefit significantly from policies aimed at reducing competition, structural adjustments, and the elimination of outdated capacities, with a clear direction towards green, low-carbon, and intelligent development [2]

Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is cyclical, with net profits in the SW basic chemical sector reaching a historical high in 2021, followed by a downturn. By 2024, industry net profits are expected to be only 52% of 2021 levels, but some sub-industries are beginning to recover, with a 10.56% year-on-year increase in net profits for the first three quarters [1] Supply Side - Investment in fixed assets for the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry turned negative starting June 2025, with capital expenditures in the SW basic chemical sector and several sub-industries declining for multiple consecutive quarters. The current expansion cycle in the industry is nearing its end. The "anti-involution" policy introduced in July aims to address low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, with responses from sub-industries like pesticides, petrochemicals, and PTA polyester [2] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to see a mild recovery due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and pausing balance sheet reductions, supported by monetary and fiscal policy stimuli. Emerging demand is driven by sectors such as new energy and AI, with key chemical materials being crucial for technological upgrades. The company is optimistic about the rapid increase in new energy storage capacity impacting iron phosphate and PVDF, AI industry growth affecting high-frequency and high-speed electronic resins, and the aviation industry's decarbonization efforts boosting demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [3] Overseas Capacity Reduction - The European chemical industry is experiencing a wave of plant shutdowns due to high energy costs and aging facilities. Currently, China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market. The domestic petrochemical industry chain is well-established, with many chemical products being highly competitive globally. In the context of accelerated overseas capacity reduction and anticipated demand recovery, the company believes that Chinese chemical enterprises will continue to increase their global market share, effectively alleviating excess capacity [4]

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas chemical industry is expected to prioritize high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on improving efficiency and safety while addressing competitive pressures and environmental goals [2][7][14]. Group 1: Achievements During the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The Chinese chemical industry has achieved significant growth, with projected revenues reaching 14.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a 45% increase from 2020 [2]. - China has established the world's largest and most comprehensive production system for chemical products, with over 50% of global production capacity in key chemicals like PTA, PA6, and methanol [2][6]. - By 2024, 11 Chinese companies are expected to be among the top 50 global chemical firms, accounting for 28% of the total revenue of these companies [2][6]. Group 2: Development Focus for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The focus will shift towards quality-first strategies, emphasizing technological advancement, efficiency, and profitability to close the gap with developed countries [7][9]. - Key development directions include enhancing traditional chemical industries, advancing new materials technology, and promoting green and low-carbon development [15][19]. Group 3: Traditional Chemical Industry Enhancement - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests optimizing traditional industries to improve competitiveness and quality, particularly in sectors like mining, metallurgy, and chemicals [9][14]. - The industry has seen rapid capital expenditure growth since 2022, but faces challenges from increased competition and declining profit margins [14][19]. - The government is expected to implement measures to combat "involution" in the chemical sector, promoting high-quality development [14][15]. Group 4: New Materials Technology Advancement - The plan emphasizes the development of strategic emerging industries, including new materials and advanced manufacturing technologies [15][16]. - There is significant potential for domestic substitution in semiconductor materials and advanced packaging materials, with many categories still relying heavily on imports [15][17]. - The government aims to enhance self-sufficiency in key materials through targeted R&D initiatives [16]. Group 5: Green and Low-Carbon Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines goals for carbon peak and reduction, including implementing dual control over total carbon emissions and intensity [19]. - The plan includes measures for energy efficiency, promoting distributed energy systems, and expanding the carbon trading market [19][18]. - The chemical industry is expected to face stricter entry barriers based on carbon emissions, driving a transition towards high-quality, low-carbon production [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of technology innovation in China's modernization efforts and highlights the challenges faced by universities in transforming scientific research outcomes into marketable products, particularly the "valley of death" in technology transfer [2]. Group 1: Technology Transfer Challenges - The "valley of death" refers to the critical phase in the technology transfer process where research outcomes struggle to transition from laboratory development to commercial viability [2]. - This issue is not unique to China but is a common global challenge faced by many countries [2]. Group 2: New Materials Pilot Platform Construction - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission issued guidelines for the construction of new materials pilot platforms from 2024 to 2027, aiming to establish around 300 local pilot platforms and cultivate about 20 high-level platforms [5]. - The goal is to enhance the capacity for technology transfer and industrialization in key areas of the new materials industry [5]. Group 3: Focus Areas for Pilot Platforms - The guidelines cover five major categories: raw materials industry, equipment manufacturing, consumer goods industry, information technology, and emerging industries, with specific focus on 37 subfields including petrochemicals, non-metallic materials, and advanced materials [6]. - Key technologies include high-purity electronic chemicals, high-performance resins, and bio-based materials, among others [8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Developments - In the petrochemical sector, the focus is on low-carbon technologies and the efficient utilization of resources, aiming to develop key materials for industrialization [8]. - The steel industry is concentrating on special smelting and processing technologies, with an emphasis on low-carbon metallurgy [11]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is targeting green and efficient extraction and smelting processes for various metals, including rare earths [14]. Group 5: Emerging Technologies and Applications - The article discusses advancements in various fields such as quantum technology, clean low-carbon hydrogen, and medical devices, highlighting the need for pilot platforms to support the development and commercialization of these technologies [44][47][48]. - The focus on artificial intelligence and robotics aims to enhance capabilities in intelligent decision-making and control technologies [42][43].