| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年8月26日 星期二 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79395 | 78830 | +565.00 | 0.72% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 140 | 150 | -10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 79255 | 78735 | +520.00 | 0.66% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79285 | 78710 | +575.00 | 0.73% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 30 | 30 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | JEET | 1084 | +467.24 | 43. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the macro - aspect, the path of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is unclear. Inflation has not slowed down due to tariffs, and employment is still weakening. Powell is taking a wait - and - see attitude. The decision of the September FOMC meeting will depend on two employment and inflation reports. The suspension of Sino - US tariffs is due to expire on August 12, with different statements from China and the US. - Fundamentally, during the traditional off - season, there is a stage of weak supply and demand, and inventories are accumulating. However, after the decline in copper prices, spot trading has improved marginally, and downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices. The tight supply at the mine end and the resilience at the demand end support prices. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The US economy is still weakening, capping the upside of copper prices, but the downside is also limited. In the short term, copper prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 79,500 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, as the warehouse receipt volume has gradually recovered, the center of the alumina futures price has moved down, and the spot - futures arbitrage space has narrowed. Traders are expected to be relatively cautious in inquiring and purchasing. Sellers' quotes remain firm, but downstream acceptance of high - priced alumina is average. - Fundamentally, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy - season barge transportation pressure. However, alumina plants' profitability is acceptable, and there is no strong intention to cut production. The recovery of production capacity and new capacity additions will increase spot supply. The market will remain slightly oversupplied, and the future core driver lies in the game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract price of alumina will fluctuate widely in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 this week. - The aluminum price was fluctuating at a high level yesterday. There was a lot of selling in the market, but downstream purchasing willingness was low during the off - season, resulting in a large discount. The macro - environment in China is positive for consumption, and the "anti - involution" sentiment supports the aluminum price. However, the repeated changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and tariff events bring great uncertainty. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, and the decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum has led to an increase in inventory. On the demand side, the real - estate completion is weak, home - appliance exports are declining, and orders are weakening after the end of the PV installation rush. Only the new - energy vehicle lightweight demand remains resilient. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to be under pressure at a high level, with the main contract price referring to 20,000 - 21,000 this month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Yesterday, the aluminum alloy futures price fluctuated with the aluminum price. Most of the market transactions were for spot - futures arbitrageurs to hedge with SHFE aluminum futures, and terminal transactions were sluggish. Social inventories in major consumption areas increased significantly, approaching full capacity in some places. - On the supply side, affected by the off - season, the output of new scrap aluminum is limited. The import of scrap aluminum is restricted due to the price inversion and Thailand's policy. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing some cost support for recycled aluminum. - On the demand side, the traditional off - season has suppressed demand. Orders from the terminal automotive industry are weak. Downstream die - casting enterprises are bearish on the market outlook, maintain a low - inventory rigid - procurement strategy, and have a strong willingness to bargain, resulting in a light trading volume. The weak demand will continue to suppress the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely, with the main contract referring to 19,200 - 20,200 [6]. Zinc - Overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production resumption, and the zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton. However, the global mine production in May and the domestic mine production growth in July were both lower than expected. - Smelters are highly motivated to resume production, and the smelter operating rate is stronger than the seasonal average. The loose supply at the mine end has gradually spread to the smelting end, and domestic refined zinc production in July exceeded expectations. - The demand side has entered the seasonal off - season, with average terminal consumption. Downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, and the spot premium has weakened. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries remain at a seasonal low. - The absolute inventory level is low, and LME zinc inventories are still being depleted. Fundamentally, the combination of loose supply and weak demand is insufficient to support a continuous upward movement of zinc prices, but the low inventory provides price support. For zinc prices to continue to rebound, continuous inventory depletion and a continuous expectation of interest rate cuts without an overseas recession are needed. A downward breakthrough requires a stronger - than - expected TC and refined zinc inventory accumulation. In the short term, zinc prices are likely to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 [7][8]. Tin - On the supply side, the supply of tin ore remains tight, and smelters' processing fees remain low. In June, domestic tin ore imports remained at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar is progressing, due to the rainy season, earthquakes, and mine preparations, actual ore output is expected to be postponed until the fourth quarter. - On the demand side, after the end of the PV installation rush, PV tin - bar orders in East China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. In South China, the electronics consumption has entered the off - season, and the operating rates of solder enterprises have declined significantly. Considering the impact of future US tariff policies on trade and the weakening influence of domestic consumption - stimulus policies, future demand is expected to be weak. - Overall, the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the import situation of Burmese tin ore. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may be supported [12]. Nickel - Yesterday, the nickel futures on the SHFE maintained a relatively strong trend, and the overall sentiment in the commodity market warmed slightly. - In the macro - aspect, the weak US employment and factory order data have increased the market's expectation of the Fed accelerating interest rate cuts. In China, it is the policy window period of the meeting, and seven departments including the central bank have jointly issued guidelines on financial support for new - type industrialization. - On the industrial side, the spot price of nickel rose yesterday, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased slightly. Recently, the price of nickel ore has been stable. Mines in the Philippines are in the shipping stage, and the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore in August (phase one) is expected to rise. The nickel - iron market is calm, with supply expected to be loose. The mainstream nickel - iron quotation has risen to 940 - 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), waiting for transaction confirmation. Domestic iron plants are mostly operating at reduced loads, but the oversupply pressure of nickel - iron still exists, with short - term cost support. - The demand for stainless steel remains weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw - material procurement. Terminal demand is weak. In the new - energy sector, downstream ternary material producers have low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventories remain high, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories have decreased. - Overall, the sentiment and fundamentals have changed little, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, capping the upside of the nickel price. In the short term, the futures is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - Yesterday, the stainless - steel futures price rose overall. The expectation of the peak season has strengthened support, and spot agents and traders have raised prices, driving up terminal purchasing sentiment and improving market transactions. - In the macro - aspect, the weak US employment and factory order data have increased the market's expectation of the Fed accelerating interest rate cuts. In China, it is the policy window period of the meeting, and seven departments including the central bank have jointly issued guidelines on financial support for new - type industrialization. - The price of nickel ore has been stable. Mines in the Philippines are in the shipping stage, and the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore in August (phase one) is expected to rise. The nickel - iron price is strong, with the mainstream quotation rising to 940 - 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), waiting for transaction confirmation. Iron plants are operating at reduced loads, and steel mills' profit improvement has weakened the pressure on raw - material prices. The chromium - iron price is weak, and the spot price may still decline slightly in the future. - Stainless - steel plants are actively reducing production to cope with insufficient demand, but the reduction is moderate and not sustainable, so the short - term supply pressure in the market is difficult to ease. The reality of weak terminal demand remains unchanged. In the traditional downstream sectors, it is the off - season, and the growth rate of emerging downstream sectors is expected to decline. Purchases are mainly for rigid replenishment, and although traders have more bargaining space, trading volume is still difficult to increase. The reduction of stainless - steel social inventory is slow, and warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. - Overall, the sentiment has improved, and cost support has strengthened, but the fundamentals are still constrained by weak spot demand. In the short term, the futures price is likely to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract referring to 13,000 - 13,500. Attention should be paid to policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, all lithium - carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit, mainly affected by the news that the Shixiawo mine in Jiangxi confirmed to be shut down over the weekend. The market sentiment continued to ferment, and the main contract LC2511 rose to 81,000. There is still speculation about whether other mines in Jiangxi will be affected, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy guidance on mine production. - Fundamentally, the current supply - demand balance is tight. The smelting end has short - term inventory support, and supply remains relatively sufficient. Last week's production data rebounded again, but the marginal growth rate of supply has slowed down recently. Demand is showing a steady and optimistic trend, gradually entering the peak season. Cell orders are acceptable, and material production - scheduling data is more optimistic than market expectations. However, due to the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, actual demand has not been significantly boosted. - Last week, inventories increased across the board. Upstream smelters continued to reduce inventories, while downstream replenishment increased significantly, and other trading links remained stable with a slight decrease. Overall, after the expectations at the mine end are realized, the upward space of the futures price is more determined by capital sentiment. Driven by continuous sentiment, the futures price is expected to remain strong in the short term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. Recently, attention should be paid to the evolution of market sentiment and the actual adjustment of supply [19]. Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day. Other copper - related prices and premiums also showed different changes [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 20,250 yuan/ton [6]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [7][8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price remained unchanged at 268,000 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Month - to - Month Spreads - Different metals showed different changes in month - to - month spreads, such as copper's 2508 - 2509 spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day; aluminum's 2508 - 2509 spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [1][4]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7][8]. - **Tin**: In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% from the previous month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% from the previous month [12]. - **Nickel**: In July, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; in Indonesia (Qinglong), it was 36.00 million tons, unchanged from the previous month [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate within a range, mainly between 78,000 - 79,500. The macro situation has uncertainties in the interest - rate cut path, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand during the off - season, but "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 this week, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term. For aluminum, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in August referring to 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract running between 19,200 - 20,200, and it is necessary to focus on the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices may oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000. The supply is loose while the demand is weak, and the low inventory provides price support [7]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, mainly between 118,000 - 126,000, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract running between 13,000 - 13,500, and it is necessary to focus on policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. It is necessary to focus on the evolution of market sentiment and actual supply adjustments [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price was 268,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 2.22% from the previous day [14]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 145 yuan/ton, down 56.72% from the previous day [16]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; imports were 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month; exports were 39.00 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. With the US economy weakening, the copper price faces upward pressure. However, from the Samuelson rule, the market has not entered a recession narrative, and the downside space is difficult to open. In the short term, the copper price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a slight surplus, with the main contract price expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract price referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors to monitor include inventory changes and marginal demand changes [5]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply - demand imbalance of aluminum alloy is expected to continue, with the market remaining in a narrow - range oscillation. The main contract is expected to trade between 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch are upstream scrap aluminum supply and import changes [7]. Zinc - The basic situation of "loose supply + weak demand" is insufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of the zinc price, but the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, the zinc price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. Key factor to monitor is the import situation of Burmese tin ore [14]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. Key factor to watch is the change in macro expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Key factors to monitor are policy trends and the supply - demand situation of nickel ore and nickel iron [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment and news mainly drive the lithium carbonate price. The main contract price may test the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. However, attention should be paid to the fact that the current price has already reflected some of the results, and unilateral trading should be cautious [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,530 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Copper View - In the traditional off - season, the market shows a phased situation of weak supply and demand, and inventory is accumulating. However, after the copper price drops, spot trading improves marginally, and downstream buyers purchase at low prices [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,650 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; the premium is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [5]. Alumina and Aluminum Views - Last week, the alumina futures price was under pressure due to the increase in registered warehouse receipts. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten, but the alumina plants' willingness to cut production is not strong. The aluminum price is affected by factors such as inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro - level disturbances [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread is 45 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [7]. Aluminum Alloy View - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the cost, while the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,470 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [10]. Zinc View - The upstream zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption, but the production growth rate is lower than expected. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the downstream is cautious in purchasing [10]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price is 268,000 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 280 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [14]. Tin View - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season [14]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread is - 160 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports are 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [16]. Nickel View - The nickel market is oscillating, with weak unilateral driving forces. The macro - level sentiment is temporarily stable, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium term [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread is - 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports are 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [17]. Stainless Steel View - The stainless steel market is oscillating slightly stronger, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is low. The supply pressure is difficult to reduce in the short term, and the demand is weak [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan/ton, up 1.13% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 1340 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month [20]. Lithium Carbonate View - The lithium carbonate price rose significantly last week, mainly driven by market sentiment and news. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, and the price may test the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: In July, China's export performance was strong, with non-US countries supporting exports and electromechanical products showing competitive advantages. However, future export growth is expected to decline gradually, and the decision - makers' policies are expected to improve the price index [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar is weak, and non - US currencies are generally strong. The short - term exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB is expected to be supported in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a likely anchor at 7.20 [3]. - **Stock Index**: The domestic economic data did not exceed market expectations, and the short - term market is expected to continue the trend of shrinking volume and oscillation. Wait for the release of domestic financial data and US inflation data [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The liquidity has improved, and the primary market situation is better than expected. It is recommended to hold long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The SCFI European line continues to decline. The futures price is expected to be in a volatile or slightly declining trend in the short - to - medium term [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, alumina is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate [13][14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium resources is expected to tighten, and investors need to be cautious about holding positions [17]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [21]. - **Black Metals**: Steel products are expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state in the short term, and iron ore is in a narrow - range oscillation. Coal and coke are not pessimistic in the medium - to - long term, and ferroalloys are recommended to be lightly bought on dips [22][24][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is at risk of decline, LPG remains in a loose situation, PTA - PX is recommended to expand the processing fee, ethylene glycol is recommended to be bought on dips, methanol 09 is weak, PP and PE are in an oscillatory state, PVC is to be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene have weak short - term unilateral drives, fuel oil is weak, low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, asphalt is in a weak oscillation, urea is in a weak oscillation, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a game between reality and expectation [30][32][37][40][42][43][46][48][50] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - **Domestic**: In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed. The export was strong, and the decision - makers introduced a series of livelihood policies [1][2]. - **Overseas**: The US non - farm payrolls data was revised downwards, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased. There were various international events such as potential US - Russia cease - fire agreements and tariff policies [1] RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated. The US dollar index was weak, and non - US currencies were strong [2][3] - **Influencing Factors**: The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the US domestic economic situation, China's export performance, and the central bank's guidance [3][4] Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index oscillated, and the trading volume decreased. The futures index volume decreased, and the bullish sentiment declined [5] - **Influencing Factors**: Domestic economic data, policy support, and the upcoming release of financial and inflation data [5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures opened high and closed low, then rebounded. The liquidity improved, and the primary market situation was better than expected [5][6] - **Influencing Factors**: Liquidity improvement, the issuance of local bonds, and the impact of VAT adjustment [6] Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The container shipping index (European line) futures oscillated, and the SCFI European line continued to decline [7][8] - **Influencing Factors**: Shipping company performance, geopolitical risks, and shipping company price adjustments [8] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated, affected by tariff policies and Fed news. Fund positions and inventory changed [9][10][11] - **Influencing Factors**: US tariff policies, Fed interest rate cut expectations, and China's gold reserve increase [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: The price oscillated, affected by inventory and the approaching peak season [13] - **Alumina**: The supply was excessive, the price was under pressure, and the cost was the support [14] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply and demand were good, and the price followed the aluminum price [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the fundamentals provided some support [16] - **Influencing Factors**: Supply and demand of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel, and macro - level factors such as tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose, and the inventory increased [16][17] - **Influencing Factors**: Mine - end news, production and demand of the lithium battery industry chain, and the suspension of mining operations [16][17] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the production and demand of the industry changed [17][18][19] - **Influencing Factors**: Production capacity changes, market demand, and the adjustment of registered brands [18][19][20] Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were affected by production restrictions and market demand [22] - **Iron Ore**: The price oscillated in a narrow range, and the supply and demand were affected by coal prices and steel demand [22][23][24] - **Coal and Coke**: The prices oscillated strongly, and the supply and demand were affected by production inspections, imports, and downstream demand [24][25] - **Ferroalloys**: The prices fluctuated with coal prices, and the supply and demand were affected by steel production and raw material supply [26][27][28] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price declined, and the supply and demand were affected by seasonal factors and geopolitical events [28][29][30] - **LPG**: The price was under pressure, and the supply was loose while the demand was slightly improved [31][32] - **PTA - PX**: The price followed the cost, and there was a supply - demand gap in August [32][33] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a weak balance [36] - **Methanol**: The 09 contract was weak, and the port inventory increased [37][38] - **PP and PE**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a state of change [39][40][42] - **PVC**: The price was high - valued and high - inventory, and it was recommended to be short - allocated [43] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term unilateral drive was weak, and the supply and demand situation was different [43][44][46] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The prices were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [46] - **Asphalt**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by weather and funds [47][48] - **Urea**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by export and agricultural demand [49][50] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices were in a game between reality and expectation, and the supply and demand were different [50][51][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors. The expected 50% tariff on US copper in late July, along with weakening demand and existing supply - side contradictions, may lead to price fluctuations. The主力 contract price is expected to be affected by the 78000 support level [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, the market is in a state of small - scale surplus, with prices expected to oscillate between 2950 - 3250. For aluminum, high - level prices face pressure due to inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, with the主力 contract price expected to range from 20000 - 20800 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The regenerative aluminum market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with demand being the more prominent issue. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [4]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long - term. Although the inventory level provides some price support, the domestic social inventory may enter a stockpiling cycle. The main contract price is expected to range from 21500 - 23000 [7]. - **Nickel**: In the nickel market, the cost support for refined nickel is weakening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference of 118000 - 126000 [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. It is recommended to hold short positions from the previous high [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market has short - term price support due to news and capital sentiment, but the medium - term pressure remains, and there may be a downward trend. The short - term main contract is expected to run between 63000 - 68000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.59% to 77995 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 155 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 35.97% to 545 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, and the import volume in May increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. The domestic social inventory increased by 3.29% to 14.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.20% to 20510 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 110 yuan/ton. The alumina price in Shandong increased by 0.32% to 3150 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 million tons. The aluminum profile production rate remained unchanged at 49.50% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20000 yuan/ton. The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 40 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.49% to 61.50 million tons, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped by 0.14% to 22150 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 63.52 yuan/ton to - 1260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 million tons, and the import volume in May decreased by 5.36% to 2.67 million tons. The galvanizing production rate increased by 1.81% to 58.29% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped by 1.11% to 120400 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 447 yuan/ton to - 2442 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31800 tons, and the import volume increased by 116.90% to 19157 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.83% to 24922 tons [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price dropped by 0.71% to 264600 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2509 - 2510 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 companies) in April decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons, and the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 3.39% to 52.48 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% to 64900 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 110 yuan/ton to - 1960 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93876 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 99858 tons [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions shows a pattern of "looser supply expectation and weaker actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by the supply tightness expectation of bauxite in Guinea and the low inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts. However, the high - capacity operation situation remains unchanged, and the market is slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 this week. For aluminum, although the domestic consumption stimulus supports the price, the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and tariff uncertainties are short - term negatives. The price of the main contract is expected to face pressure at high levels this week, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress the upward momentum of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the output growth rate of domestic mines in June fell short of expectations, which supports the price. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand is marginally weak. In the long - term, if the mine growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the price center may move down. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Short - term macro fluctuations are large, and previous high - level short positions should be held [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level nickel - iron price weakens the cost support, the supply - side production cut is less than expected, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk will fluctuate, with the main contract running between 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the excess supply may intensify. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract running between 63,000 - 68,000, while there is still downward risk in the medium - term [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount was - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount was 10 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.11%. The premium/discount was 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount dropped to 1,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.50% [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07%. The SMM 1 tin premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.39% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.41%. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) dropped to - 2070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 168.83% [20]. Month - to - Month Spreads - **Copper**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 50 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 140 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 was 90 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was - 70 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Tin**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 130 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 20 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was 240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina output was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%. In May, the import volume was 250,500 tons, and the export volume was 10,000 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. In May, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 97,000 tons, and the export volume was 24,200 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc output was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, and the export volume was 1,400 tons [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume of refined nickel was 19,157 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin output was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 125,100 tons, and the export volume was 436,300 tons [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%. The demand was 93,815 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., covering market trends, supply - demand relationships, and trading strategies. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as inventory levels, production capacity changes, and macro - economic indicators on metal prices, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for different metals [7][15][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.4%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 10,391 lots to 535,600 lots. Spot premiums declined due to end - of - quarter inventory clearance and capital needs [2]. - **Important Information**: First Quantum Minerals halted operations at the accident area of the Zambian Trident project. Sentinel Copper's 2025 copper production guidance is 20 - 230,000 tons. Jiangxi Shangxin's 80,000 - ton copper product project is under environmental assessment. A new study shows that Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project could produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode annually in the first 15 years [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Antofagasta insists on a long - term processing fee of - 15 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased, and the ratio may decline further. Domestic smelters increased refined copper exports, and the spot premium dropped due to end - of - half - year factors. Copper price upside is limited [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, focus on LME delivery risks. For arbitrage, continue to hold the borrow strategy. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract fell 4 yuan to 2,903 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [11]. - **Important Information**: India's latest alumina deal was 30,000 tons at 366 dollars/ton. Expected end - of - month production capacity may change due to short - term maintenance. Yunnan Aluminum will strengthen bauxite resource acquisition [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the expected production capacity increase may be affected by short - term maintenance, the short - term surplus of bauxite remains. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate between full cost and cash cost of high - cost production capacity [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 105 yuan/ton to 20,315 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [19]. - **Important Information**: Israel and Iran agreed to a cease - fire. US and Eurozone PMI data were released. China's May photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly. The Tongliao green - power aluminum project entered the core equipment installation stage [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: High aluminum prices led to inventory increases. Low inventory and Middle - East situation uncertainties will affect aluminum prices. After the seasonal off - season in August, low - inventory - driven price differentials may expand [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For arbitrage, consider a 9 - 12 positive spread later. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 19,625 yuan/ton. Spot prices remained stable [27]. - **Important Information**: May automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicle production and sales grew significantly. Guizhou Guangyu plans a 200,000 - ton recycled aluminum project [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic recycled casting aluminum alloy production slightly decreased, and the market lacks continuous driving forces. Prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices. For arbitrage, consider trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [30][31]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.85% to 21,920 yuan/ton. Spot premiums remained stable, but downstream purchasing willingness was low [34]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: Under macro - influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Domestic zinc consumption is in the off - season, and supply has increased significantly in June. Zinc prices may decline with inventory accumulation [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting in the far - month contracts at high prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.44% to 16,960 yuan/ton. Spot prices and downstream battery production enterprises' procurement were stable [38]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory decreased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic primary lead smelter operating rates are high, but lead concentrate imports decreased. Recycled lead smelters are in losses. Supply may tighten, and demand is in the off - season. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 fell 420 to 117,630 yuan/ton. Spot premiums of different nickel types changed [45]. - **Important Information**: The wet - process phase III ONC project's tailings pond in Indonesia was completed. LME revised lending rules. Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [46][47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and weakening demand in June led to a supply - demand imbalance. LME inventory increased, and nickel prices are expected to decline and test the bottom again [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, consider selling call options [49][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract fell 35 to 12,440 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [54]. - **Important Information**: World stainless steel crude steel production in Q1 2025 increased year - on - year. Qing Shan added a public warehouse in Foshan, and its July high - carbon ferrochrome long - term procurement price was flat [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: US tariffs on steel appliances will affect demand. Supply reduction by Chinese and Indonesian steel mills is insufficient, and inventory is difficult to reduce. Nickel ore prices are firm, but NPI prices are falling [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to continue to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract rose 780 to 263,800 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, but trading was light [60]. - **Important Information**: Global PMI data were released, and Congo - Kinshasa and Rwanda will sign a peace agreement [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shanghai Tin continued to fluctuate within a range. Tin ore supply is currently tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has eased. Demand is in the off - season [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, pay attention to the tin ore resumption rhythm. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [64][65]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 7,485 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. Spot prices were stable [66][67]. - **Important Information**: May's social electricity consumption data were released [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although demand increased in June, production also increased. The supply - demand surplus situation remains. Futures prices rebounded due to market sentiment and downstream procurement. Prices may decline as production increases [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting later. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, participate in Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads [71]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 31,085 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices declined [73]. - **Important Information**: China's new photovoltaic and wind power installed capacities from January to May 2025 increased significantly [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: In June, polysilicon production increased, and inventory decreased. Silicon wafer prices fell, and spot prices are under pressure. The futures market logic has changed, and prices are expected to decline [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [78]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,800 to 60,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices of different types of lithium carbonate declined [79]. - **Important Information**: IEA predicted global lithium production. Relevant departments promoted new - energy vehicle safety management and consumption. A lithium - boron mining project in Tibet was approved [80][81]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors and warrant cancellations led to a price rebound. New - energy vehicle sales may be stimulated, but the growth rate may slow down. Lithium salt plants may resume production in July, and inventory is expected to increase [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting on rebounds. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Nickel - The nickel market is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The short - term fundamentals lack drivers, and the mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside space [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main operating range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The supply is high, the demand is slowly recovering, and the social inventory is still high [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. The supply is sufficient, the demand is affected by policies, and the inventory is at a high level [6]. Tin - The tin price is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the long term due to the slow supply recovery and weak demand expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [7]. Zinc - In the long term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. The price may maintain a high - level shock if the mine supply growth is lower than expected and the downstream consumption is better than expected. Otherwise, the price may decline [10]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price is supported by the low inventory and low warehouse receipts, with the upper limit around 20,500 yuan/ton. In Q3, the price may face pressure, with the support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.64% to 120,725 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel price decreased by 0.71% to 121,775 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 0.31% to - 192 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,750 yuan/ton and 12,900 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 60,500 yuan/ton, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 58,900 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.11% to 265,300 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.85% to - 82.5 dollars/ton [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.08% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 528 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.48% to 20,630 yuan/ton, and the alumina prices in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi decreased [13]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.39% to 78,645 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 912 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and the import volume increased by 8.18% to 8,832 tons. The SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% to 25,676 tons [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and the import volume increased by 10.26% to 14.21 million tons [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate production in May decreased by 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and the demand increased by 4.81% to 93,938 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The 4 - month tin ore import increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and the SMM refined tin production in May decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 3.59% to 7,107 tons [7]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in May decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and the import volume increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 4.41% to 7.81 million tons [10]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina production in May increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.98% to 45.80 million tons [13]. - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in May increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 19.06% to 25.00 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.76% to 81.28 million tons [14]. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: The macro environment is stable, the spot market sentiment is low, and the cost support is slightly weakened. The downstream demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market trading is light, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply is high, and the demand is slowly recovering [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is volatile, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is affected by policies [6]. - **Tin**: The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply recovery is slow, and the demand expectation is weak [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply - side mine is loose, and the demand - side is gradually weakening. The downstream consumption is in the off - season [10]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is supported by the low inventory, but the demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The alumina supply is gradually increasing [13]. - **Copper**: The macro environment is weak, and the "strong reality" of the fundamentals restricts the decline. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14].

知识图强, 求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月5日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解键 | 123425 | 122850 | 575 | 0.47% | 76/11/2 | | 1#金川镇 | 124575 | 124050 | ર્સ્ટ | 0.42% | 元/肥 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 | 2500 | 2550 | -50 | -1.96% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 122425 | 121800 | 625 | 0.51% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | 350 | 300 | 50 | - | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -201 | -203 | 2 | -1.21% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -4760 | -3669 | ...