晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投 资策略报告 工企利润短期波动，后续关注政策部署——2025 年 1-10 月工业企业效益数据 点评 行业研究 把握创新与出海机遇，关注新技术空间——医药生物行业 2026 年度投资策略 报告 大模型厂商发力 C 端应用，关注 AI 应用商业化落地——计算机行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 1、 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive growth trend in industrial enterprise profits for the first ten months of 2025, with a total profit of CNY 59,502.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [5][6] - The report emphasizes the impact of raw material prices on the profitability of industrial enterprises, indicating that these prices remain a significant drag on earnings [5][6] - A new consumption promotion plan issued by six ministries aims to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027, creating three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [8][9] Macroeconomic Overview - Industrial enterprises maintained a year-on-year profit growth, although the growth rate slowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters [5] - In October, industrial profits saw a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, with a month-on-month drop of 27.1 percentage points [5] - The report notes that the mining sector's contribution to profits has been consistently low this year [5] Revenue and Cost Analysis - For the first ten months, industrial enterprises reported a revenue growth of 1.8%, with a slight decrease in revenue per hundred yuan of assets to CNY 74.5 [6] - Operating costs increased by 2.0%, with the profit margin remaining stable at 5.3% [6] - The report indicates that industrial production activities remain active, but pricing pressures persist, with PPI and production material PPI showing negative year-on-year growth [6][7] Consumption Promotion Plan - The plan aims for a significant optimization of the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, with a focus on new technologies and innovative business models [8][9] - It emphasizes the importance of matching supply with diverse consumer needs, including specific demographics such as children, students, and the elderly [10] - The report outlines the creation of new consumption scenarios and business formats, supported by a favorable development environment [11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies related to employment, tourism, and cultural consumption, as well as those involved in sports events and creative industries [12]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 28 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 11 月 28 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数上涨 0.3%，沪深 300 下跌 0.1%，科创 50 下跌 0.3%，中证 1000 上涨 0.1%，创业板指下跌 0.4%，恒生指数上涨 0.1%。 ❑ 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是轻工制造（+1.1%)、基础化工（+1.0%)、石油石化（+0.9%)、煤炭（+0.8%)、 美容护理（+0.7%)，表现最差的行业分别是综合（-2.3%)、传媒（-1.4%)、商贸零售（-1.2%)、计算机（-0.8%)、 建筑材料（-0.7%)。 ❑ 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 17096 亿元，南下资金净流入 13.3 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商家电 马莉/张云添/文煊/芦家宁】家用电器 年度行业策略报告：经营韧性，出海红利，左侧 ...

Group 1: Major Indices - The bond index (China Bond Composite) shows a strong performance with a 90% increase rate, making it a stable choice for investors [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index stands out among stock indices with a 60% increase rate and an average increase of 1.34%, indicating potential opportunities in Hong Kong stocks [3] - Large-cap indices like CSI 300 outperform small-cap indices, suggesting a market preference for larger leading stocks in December [3][4] Group 2: Fund Types - Short-term and medium to long-term bond funds have a high increase rate of 90%, making them suitable for investors seeking certainty [5][7] - "Fixed income plus" products, such as secondary bond funds, show a 70% increase rate and an average return of 0.44%, balancing risk and return effectively [7] - Equity funds exhibit a divergence, with high-position ordinary stock and mixed equity funds having a 40% increase rate but higher average returns, appealing to risk-tolerant investors [7] Group 3: Industry Perspective - Consumer sectors, particularly social services, food and beverage, and home appliances, show a 70% increase rate, highlighting the "year-end consumption season" as a driving force [8][10] - Financial and energy sectors, including banks and oil and gas, demonstrate strong defensive characteristics with high increase rates, indicating stability during December [11] - Specific consumer segments like white goods and non-liquor beverages have an 80% increase rate, marking them as significant alpha sources [12][13]

ABSTRACT 摘 要 择时展望： （ 1 ）从信用通胀的宏观角度，估值、风险溢价、情绪等微观视角观察， 2026 年 A 股总 体有望继续迎来慢牛回升。（ 2 ）本轮杠杆率上行主要为债务稳定，产出走弱，不同于以往，在见到 产出走强之前，宽松周期预期将大概率维持，自上而下看，权益市场上行弹性更大。（ 3 ）风险溢价 目前处于均衡区域，创业板指风格估值相对历史总体处于中位数水平。（ 4 ）情绪视角看，股价处于 200 日均线以上的个股占总体的比例，反应市场高低热度，该指标目前处于均衡区域。（ 5 ）使用卷 积神经网络对图表化的价量数据与未来价格进行建模，最新配置主题关注能源、高股息等。 风格与行业配置展望： （ 1 ）积极关注宏观政策环境变化，挖掘利好的方向及板块。我们预计随着宏 观经济环境的不断向好，明年市场宏观环境上可能迎来通胀改善上行趋势。 PPI 筑底上行趋势阶段， 小市值成长风格表现明显占优。小票及成长、消费等板块表现较为占优。按照风格指数表现上看，中信 消费及成长风格指数表现最佳，行业的表现中，靠前的行业分别为社会服务、美容护理、电力设备、医 药生物、电子等。（ 2 ）挖掘目前相对及绝对估值较低且 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3864.18, down by 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% to 12907.83 [2][4] - The three major indices opened lower but rebounded, with the ChiNext Index increasing by nearly 3% at one point during the session [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (+4.64%), Comprehensive (+1.79%), and Electronics (+1.58%), while the worst-performing sectors were Defense Industry (-2.25%) and Media (-0.82%) [3] - Notable concept indices that performed well included Horse Racing (+1.95%) and Duty-Free Shops (+1.72%), while sectors like Shipbuilding (-5.09%) and Military-Civil Integration (-1.90%) lagged [3] Future Outlook - The report highlights a government initiative aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, targeting the formation of three trillion-level consumption areas and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027 [5] - The market is expected to stabilize with a focus on sectors such as dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and New Energy, as the regulatory environment becomes clearer [5]

Group 1: Vanke Debt Situation - Vanke's debt situation is under scrutiny as a report suggests that the local government is considering a "market-oriented" approach to handle its debt [1][2] - A working group previously estimated a funding gap of approximately 150 billion RMB (about 21.1 billion USD) for Vanke, with total interest-bearing liabilities reported at around 362.9 billion RMB (51.1 billion USD) as of September 30 [3] - Vanke faces imminent challenges with two domestic bonds maturing in December, totaling 2 billion RMB and 3.7 billion RMB, respectively [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The market is reacting to rumors that Shenzhen has sought assistance from Beijing regarding Vanke's debt situation, leading to speculation about potential outcomes [4] - The report indicates that the Shenzhen government can no longer support Vanke independently, suggesting a need for intervention from higher authorities [2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Stock Performance - The TMT sector has experienced significant fluctuations, with the rolling 40-day excess return narrowing to a historical low of around -7.5%, indicating a potential bottoming out [10] - Recent reports highlight a strong performance in the optical communication sector, driven by rumors of Google placing a substantial order, which has positively impacted related stocks [14][22]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on November 26, with major indices fluctuating, while sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors saw gains, whereas shipbuilding and aerospace sectors faced declines [1] - The net outflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 11.01 billion yuan, with 15 sectors experiencing net inflows, particularly automotive, textile and apparel, and comprehensive industries, each exceeding 300 million yuan [1] - The basic chemical industry led the net outflow with 1.13 billion yuan, followed by social services, real estate, and non-bank financial sectors, each exceeding 600 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Five stocks recorded net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with a total of 63 stocks seeing net inflows above 100 million yuan [2] - The CPO concept stocks continued to strengthen, with New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang attracting net inflows of 1.646 billion yuan and 1.306 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Yangguang Power saw a net inflow of 1.243 billion yuan, while Inspur Information reported a net inflow of 1.128 billion yuan, with the company announcing a share buyback of 2.25 billion yuan [4] Group 3 - At the market close, the main funds experienced a net outflow of 1.541 billion yuan, with retail and food and beverage sectors leading in net inflows [5] - Three stocks, including Yaowang Technology and Dongxin Co., saw net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan at the close, with Dongxin Co. hitting the daily limit [6]

按最新收盘价计算，A股均价为13.48元，不足2元的个股共有24只，股价最低的是*ST元成，最新收盘 价为0.58元。 | 002306 | *ST云网 | 1.95 | -2.99 | 5.15 | | 社会服务 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300197 | 节能铁汉 | 1.99 | -0.50 | 1.34 | 6.01 | 建筑装饰 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 市场表现方面，上述低价股中，今日上涨的有10只，涨幅居前的有金正大、海航控股、广田集团，分别 上涨1.65%、1.18%、1.09%。下跌的有8只，跌幅居前的有*ST云网、荣盛发展、绿地控股，跌幅分别为 2.99%、1.21%、1.14%。（数据宝） 低价股排名 | 代码 | 简称 | 最新收盘价（元） | 日涨跌幅（%） | 日换手率（%） | 市净率（倍） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603388 | *ST元成 | 0.58 | | | 0.27 | 建筑装饰 | | 600200 | *ST ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-25 中美元首对话。宏观方面，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平指出，釜山会晤以来，中美关系总 体稳定向好，受到两国和国际社会普遍欢迎，事实再次说明，中美"合则两利、斗则俱伤"是经过实践反复验证的 常识，中美"相互成就、共同繁荣"是看得见、摸得着的实景。双方要保持住这个势头，坚持正确方向，秉持平等、 尊重、互惠态度，拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单，争取更多积极进展，为中美关系打开新的合作空间。海外方面， 美联储理事沃勒表示，最新数据显示劳动力市场依然疲软，因此他主张在12月进行降息；美国旧金山联储主席、 2027年FOMC票委戴利表示，她支持在下个月降息，因为她认为就业市场突然恶化的可能性比通胀骤然上升更大， 也更难以控制。 股指收红。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收涨，沪指涨0.05%收于3836.77点，创业板指涨0.31%。行业方面，板块 指数涨跌互现，国防军工、传媒、计算机、社会服务行业涨幅居前，石油石化、煤炭、银行、食品饮料行业跌幅 居前。当日沪深两市成交额为1.7万亿元。工信部近日印发通知，聚焦新一代信息技术、新能源、新材料、生物、 高端装备、智能网联新能源汽车 ...