Group 1: Glass Market Analysis - The glass market has experienced several bullish trends over the past five years, with notable surges in April 2020, January 2022, November 2022, June 2023, April 2024, September 2024, and June 2025 [2] - Recent market dynamics indicate a significant increase in short positions, suggesting a challenging environment for a rapid reversal in market trends [7] - Current market conditions reflect a strong inventory pressure, leading to increased short positions in the futures market, which complicates the outlook for price recovery [6][7] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market Insights - Lithium carbonate futures have surged to a high of 88,000 yuan, with a cumulative increase of over 20% since mid-October [8][9] - Demand for lithium carbonate is driven by a significant increase in orders from battery manufacturers, particularly in the energy storage sector, which has seen a rapid rise in consumption [9][11] - Despite high production levels, the market remains hot, with weekly production reaching historical highs, indicating a robust supply-demand balance [11][12] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - After a month of stagnation, silver prices have surged, with spot silver prices approaching $50, driven more by financial attributes than industrial demand [13][15] - The market is experiencing a "non-traditional squeeze," with significant movements in inventory across major exchanges, indicating unresolved supply-demand imbalances [14] - The silver leasing rate remains elevated, suggesting ongoing risks of a squeeze, with market participants awaiting developments in December [15] Group 4: Chinese Stock Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to attract over 6 trillion yuan from real estate and fixed income products, indicating a significant shift in capital allocation [17][20] - Domestic investors currently have a low allocation to stocks, with only 11% of their assets in equities, suggesting substantial room for growth in stock market participation [20] - The trend of capital migration towards stocks is supported by increasing allocations from both individual and institutional investors, with notable inflows from southbound capital [29] Group 5: Futures Market Selection Criteria - The selection of futures contracts should focus on those with high trading volumes and domestic pricing power, avoiding those with low liquidity or foreign control [21][22] - Key commodities for trading include black series products like rebar and glass, which have shown significant volatility and trend continuation potential [25][39] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying commodities with historical price extremes or prolonged consolidation periods, as these are likely to yield significant trading opportunities [30][31]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the sugar market, the global supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season has been revised down due to potential production cuts in Brazil and India. However, Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic sugar prices face pressure from new sugar supply. The short - term sentiment has improved, but the medium - to - long - term is still under supply surplus pressure [3]. - The pulp market is currently in a situation where the futures are strong, and the spot price has followed the increase. The cost of warehouse receipts has risen, but the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is supported by the high production of finished paper during the peak season [3]. - The double - offset paper market has limited improvement in demand during the peak season, and the supply is relatively abundant. Although the cost is supported by the increase in pulp prices, the upward driving force is weak [5]. - The cotton market is under pressure from increased production and weak consumption. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - The apple market is supported by the decline in new - season production and good fruit rate, and the inventory is decreasing year - on - year. The price of the 2605 contract is expected to remain strong [8]. - The jujube market has seen a decline in the futures price, and the market's expectation of production cuts has cooled. The inventory removal speed has slowed down, and the price is expected to be weak [9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The new - season production and good fruit rate decline year - on - year, and the inventory continues to decline year - on - year, supporting the valuation. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 9700 - 9800 [18]. - Jujube 2601: Exit short positions at low prices. The futures premium is high, and there is a pressure for the futures and spot prices to converge. The support range is 9400 - 9500, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11300 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2601: Short on rebounds. The global supply surplus pressure remains, and domestic new sugar supply increases. The support range is 5380 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5520 - 5550 [18]. - Pulp 2601: Wait and see. The cost of pulp warehouse receipts has increased, but the supply remains high, and the fundamentals have limited improvement. The support range is 4900 - 5000, and the pressure range is 5400 - 5500 [18]. - Double - offset Paper 2601: Wait and see. The cost is supported by the increase in pulp prices, but the supply is elastic, and the demand suppresses the price. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4400 - 4500 [18]. - Cotton 2601: Reduce short positions at low prices. The new - cotton production estimate is stable, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 13700 - 13800 [18]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32%. As of November 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas decreased year - on - year [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In Shandong, the purchase price outside the warehouse was stable, and the price of medium - and small - sized apples in the cold - storage increased. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage transaction increased, and the price of the same - quality fruit in the cold - storage was higher than that outside the warehouse. In other producing areas, the situation varied. The arrival volume in the sales area decreased slightly, and the sales were stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 2.06% month - on - month and 131.35% year - on - year. The futures price continued to fall, and the spot price followed. The market's expectation of production cuts cooled [9][22]. - **Sugar Market**: Datagro lowered the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons. The Brazilian and Indian production estimates were reduced. The domestic new sugar supply increased, and the price faced pressure [3][24]. - **Pulp Market**: As of October 27, the weekly pulp inventory in sample areas decreased by 1.58% month - on - month. The domestic paper pulp import volume decreased in October, and the demand was supported by the high production of finished paper [3][26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In October, the average theoretical gross profit margin of the double - offset paper industry was - 6.57%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points from the previous month. The cost decline was narrower than the revenue decline, and the profitability continued to decline [27]. - **Cotton Market**: The import volume of cotton in Japan and Thailand changed in September, and the export volume of Cote d'Ivoire increased in October. The national cotton production estimate in November was 741.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from October [28]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2601 closed at 9504, up 297 or 3.23% [29]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 9195, down 170 or - 1.82% [29]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5512, up 34 or 0.62% [29]. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4906, up 16 or 0.33% [29]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13490, down 25 or - 0.18% [29]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 4 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.7 yuan [34]. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan [34]. - The spot price of sugar was 5760 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 560 yuan [34]. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5500 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 680 yuan [34]. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 450 yuan [34]. - The spot price of cotton was 14819 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 32 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 585 yuan [34]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 1 - 5 spread is - 34, with a month - on - month increase of 26 and a year - on - year increase of 507. It is expected to fluctuate and decline, and the recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [51]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is 390, with a month - on - month increase of 385 and a year - on - year increase of 275. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [51]. - Sugar 1 - 5 spread is 79, with a month - on - month increase of 12 and a year - on - year increase of 46. It is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [51]. - Cotton 1 - 5 spread is - 5, with a month - on - month increase of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 60. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [51]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 7721, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 5419 [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 221861, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 154591 [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 4180, a month - on - month increase of 296 and a year - on - year increase of 1736 [78]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar is supported by supply - demand data, with seasonal consumption recovery due to summer cold - drink demand and significant increase in recent sugar imports. The impact on beet sugar production and post - typhoon sugarcane growth in main producing areas need further attention. [1][3] - Cotton has bottom - line support as commercial inventory is decreasing and the cotton textile peak season is approaching. Although some areas have good growth, the cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan with a potential downward risk after centralized listing. [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On the futures market, the U.S. sugar closed at 15.77 with a change of 1.55%, and the U.S. cotton closed at 64.19 with a change of - 0.16%. [1] - In the spot market, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5770.0 yuan, the Kunming sugar spot price was 5740.0 yuan, and the Xinjiang cotton spot price was 14500.0 yuan. [1] Supply - Demand Situation - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price difference. [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is coming. [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 8407.0, with a change of - 0.13%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 2598.0, with a change of - 2.07%. [2] Data Overview - **External Market Quotes**: From October 19 to 20, 2025, the U.S. sugar rose from 15.53 to 15.77 with a change of 1.55%, and the U.S. cotton fell from 64.29 to 64.19 with a change of - 0.16%. [4] - **Spot Prices**: From October 17 to 20, 2025, the Nanning and Kunming sugar prices both decreased by 0.35%, the cotton index 328 remained unchanged, and the Xinjiang cotton price remained at 14500.0 yuan. [4] - **Price Spread Overview**: There were various changes in sugar and cotton contract spreads and basis from October 19 - 20, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 increased by 11.43%, and the cotton 09 basis decreased by 12.12%. [4] - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA remained at 75.1 from October 17 - 20, 2025. [4] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained at 1567.5 from October 17 - 20, 2025. [4] - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5400, SR601P5400, CF601C13400, and CF601P13400 were 0.0763, 0.0762, 0.0791, and 0.0796 respectively. [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From October 17 - 20, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 8418.0 to 8407.0 with a change of - 0.13%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 2653.0 to 2598.0 with a change of - 2.07%. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating, including soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [5] - Protein Meals: Oscillating, covering soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [6] - Hogs: Oscillating weakly [2][8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Cotton: Oscillating within a short - term range, with prices slightly stronger this week [12] - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [13] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [14] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, some products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, while in the long - term, factors like production capacity changes and consumption trends play important roles. For example, the hog market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, with short - term supply pressure but potential relief in the second half of 2026 [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Continue to oscillate and consolidate, waiting for further information guidance. The market is affected by both macro and industrial factors. Macro factors include the US government "shutdown", expectations of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Industrial factors involve the suspension of US soybean data updates, expectations of lower US soybean yields, increased expected production of Brazilian new - season soybeans, and the inventory and export situations of palm oil [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate. The market lacks upward momentum due to factors such as the expected accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the suspension of US soybean data updates, and the smooth progress of Brazilian soybean planting [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **View**: Double meals are oscillating at a low level, and selling put options can be attempted. Internationally, US soybean production and exports are affected by policies, and Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestically, short - term oil mill operations are increasing, and downstream inventory levels are not low. In the medium - term, Sino - US trade relations and downstream replenishment after seasonal destocking need to be monitored. In the long - term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possible small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. The market should pay attention to the support level around 2850 - 2900, as well as weather and Sino - US trade trends. Selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [5]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: There is a temporary shortage at ports, leading to a continuous rebound in futures and spot prices. Short - term price increases are due to factors such as bad weather, farmers' reluctance to sell, port shortages, and state - owned reserve purchases. However, the selling pressure has not been fully released, and the market is expected to be oscillating weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. If prices rebound slightly due to recent weather disturbances and inventory shortages, short - selling opportunities can be considered. In the long - term, the expectation of tight annual supply supports the idea of low - buying in the far - month contracts [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Second - fattening replenishment has diverted part of the supply pressure, leading to a rebound in hog futures and spot prices. In the short - term, consumption is in the off - season, and supply is abundant. In the medium - term, the high - level production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 will lead to an increase in hog slaughter in the fourth quarter. In the long - term, sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction, and supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. Near - month contracts are under supply pressure, while far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The hog industry presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention can be paid to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [2][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Return to the oscillating bottom - grinding trend. The recent divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber is due to factors such as the impact of state - reserve sales on RU and the low import volume and limited warehouse receipts of NR. The raw material price of cup rubber is relatively firm, and there are still some weather disturbances in the producing areas. The demand for tires in the fourth quarter is expected to decline [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Due to high macro uncertainty, if the overall commodity performance is poor, rubber prices are expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom [10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market performance is dull, with narrow - range oscillations. High production this year has been a major pressure on the market. Although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than that of production, resulting in high social inventory. The price of butadiene, the raw material, has been fluctuating [11]. - **Outlook**: With high fundamental pressure and a lack of improvement in the raw material end, the market is expected to continue to oscillate and grind the bottom, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The purchase price has increased, leading to a rebound in cotton prices. The expected cotton production in Xinjiang has been adjusted downward, and the firm purchase price of seed cotton has provided cost - side support. In the short - term, the downward driving force of Zhengzhou cotton has weakened, and there is a demand for a rebound [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a short - term range, with prices slightly stronger this week. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, and upstream enterprises are advised to hedge actively when prices are high [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are oscillating at a low level, with weak supply and demand. In the medium - and long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and sugar prices are in a bearish pattern. In the short - term, Brazilian sugar production has passed its peak, but exports have increased, and domestic sales and inventory situations are not optimistic [13]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly as a whole, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [13]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Spot trading is light, and pulp prices are running at a low level. After the National Day, pulp futures have shown a bottom - oscillating trend. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, and the market is concerned about the high ratio of virtual to real pulp and the concentrated cancellation at the end of the year. However, the game sentiment for the 01 contract has weakened. In general, the pulp market is difficult to rise significantly [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The market is dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand conditions, and the weakness of pulp futures is difficult to reverse [14][15]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: With the approaching of tenders, offset paper prices may stabilize. The spot price center of offset paper remains stable, but the market is not active. The cost support is average, and the upcoming tenders have a pessimistic market expectation. Although the supply pressure has been alleviated to some extent, the increase in new production capacity in South China may restrict paper prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. There is a possibility of a slight decline in spot prices in the short - term [16]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Freight rates have increased, leading to the relatively strong operation of logs. The increase in port fees has raised the cost of some ships, affecting the price of logs. The market has been running weakly recently due to factors such as the negative impact of domestic timber delivery in Chongqing and the failure of the peak - season expectation. The inventory level is not low, and the demand in the real - estate market is weak [19]. - **Outlook**: In the next few weeks, due to the disturbance of increased port - fee costs, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the progress of foreign merchants' replacement of involved ships and the risk of price decline after the relaxation of Sino - US policies [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia on sugar beet production and the growth recovery of sugarcane after typhoon damage in Guangdong and Guangxi need further attention. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3] - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support as the cotton textile peak season is approaching. The cotton growth period has suitable meteorological conditions, and the picking progress in Xinjiang is 24.9% as of October 6, with the price expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,650.0 yuan [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.1 with a change of 0.00%. US cotton closed at 63.77 with a change of 0.00% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support as the cotton textile peak season is approaching [1] Inventory Warrants - Zhengzhou sugar warrants are 8,867.0 with a change of 0.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warrants are 2,942.0 with a change of 0.00% [2] Data Quick View Outer Market Quotes - US sugar was 16.1 on October 11 and 16.1 on October 12, with a change of 0.00%. US cotton was 63.77 on October 11 and 63.77 on October 12, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning sugar was 5,800.0 on October 10 and 5,800.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00%. Kunming sugar was 5,820.0 on October 10 and 5,810.0 on October 11, with a change of - 0.17%. Cotton Index 328 was 3,281 on October 10 and 3,280 on October 11, with a change of 0.12%. Xinjiang cotton was 14,750.0 on October 10 and 14,650.0 on October 11, with a change of - 0.68% [4] Spread Quick View - All spreads and basis for sugar and cotton contracts from October 11 to October 12 had a change of 0.00% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA was 76.05 on October 10 and 76.05 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Space - Sugar import profit was 1,459.0 on October 10 and 1,459.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - For SR601C5500, the implied volatility was 0.0827, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 was 6.63. For SR601P5500, the implied volatility was 0.0789. For CF601C13400, the implied volatility was 0.0917, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 was 7.76. For CF601P13400, the implied volatility was 0.0935 [4] Inventory Warrants - Sugar warrants were 8,867.0 on October 10 and 8,867.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00%. Cotton warrants were 2,942.0 on October 10 and 2,942.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, rainfall in Inner Mongolia was excessive, which was not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the sugar factory start - up time was postponed. The impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. In late September and early October, sugarcane in major producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, and the post - disaster growth recovery needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the yield and quality in some areas were higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Suggestion - Wait and see mainly [3]

Group 1: Hot News - Next month, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies and measures to expand service consumption, using fiscal and financial means to optimize and enhance service supply capacity and stimulate new service consumption volume. The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments have jointly formulated "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports", and relevant documents will be publicly issued soon [2] - Shanghai has issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages, prioritizing the renovation of villages with urgent public needs and many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers. The renovation of urban villages should solicit the opinions of villagers, and the initial shareholding ratio of the town collective economic organization in the cooperative renovation should generally not be less than 10% [2] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June and narrowing for two consecutive months. Among them, the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June, showing a significant leading role [2] - As of August 27, among 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises surveyed, 2 new blast furnaces were under maintenance, with a newly added maintenance volume of 4340m³ and a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 10,300 tons. Currently, a total of 16 blast furnaces of steel enterprises in Tangshan are under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal of about 47,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 88.83%. Steel mills will gradually shut down and maintain blast furnaces at the end of the month as required. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116,600 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the current level (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared to the same period last year [3] - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. By the end of 2026, global oil inventories will increase by nearly 800 million barrels. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, polysilicon, PVC, Shanghai copper, and plastic [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Night session performance by sector: Non-metallic building materials 2.81%, precious metals 27.04%, oilseeds 12.20%, non-ferrous metals 21.32%, soft commodities 2.52%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.43%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.11%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.17% [4] Group 4: Large Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.76%, a monthly increase of 6.36%, and an annual increase of 13.38%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.24%, a monthly increase of 2.24%, and an annual increase of 10.20%. Other indices also had their respective performance [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.08%, a monthly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 0.83%. Other treasury bond futures also had corresponding performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.32%, and an annual increase of 1.35%. WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.96%, a monthly decrease of 7.74%, and an annual decrease of 11.21%. Other commodities also showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.86%, and an annual decrease of 9.48%. The CBOE volatility index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 12.56%, and an annual decrease of 15.73% [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities for China's economy in 2025, particularly focusing on how to leverage exports to stimulate growth amidst a complex international environment. It highlights the resilience of China's industrial sector as reflected in the export data of bulk commodities and their downstream products in June [3]. Summary by Sections Bulk Commodity Exports - The export data for June shows a structural differentiation and trend adjustment in bulk commodities and their downstream products. While exports of manufactured goods like automobiles and ships remain strong, the photovoltaic industry is facing pressure [3]. - Key commodities such as flat glass, electrolytic aluminum, zinc ingots, lead ingots, nickel, and lithium carbonate, along with specific downstream products like compound fertilizers and solder, show good export sustainability [3]. June Export Data - The article provides detailed statistics on various commodities, indicating changes in exports for June compared to previous months and the first half of the year. For instance, PTA saw a decrease of 3.8% month-on-month and a significant drop of 39.9% year-on-year, while long lines experienced a 21.7% increase year-on-year [5]. - Notable increases include urea, which surged by 2658% month-on-month, and compound fertilizers, which rose by 62.9% month-on-month [5]. Specific Commodity Performance - The performance of specific commodities in June includes: - Automotive exports increased by 7.4% month-on-month and 22.2% year-on-year [7]. - Flat glass exports decreased by 25% month-on-month but increased by 87% year-on-year [8]. - The photovoltaic glass sector showed a 34% increase month-on-month and a 25% increase year-on-year [9]. - The article also notes that while some sectors like aluminum and copper faced declines, others like lithium carbonate and certain machinery categories showed resilience [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector: The international raw sugar market is under pressure and may continue to fluctuate within a range. The domestic sugar market has a supply - demand gap, and the spot price is firm. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Paper pulp fundamentals change little, but may be driven by market sentiment. The global cotton market has a slight inventory build - up, and the domestic cotton market is in a game between supply tightening expectations and weak downstream consumption. The price increase is expected to slow down [3][4][6]. - Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector: Apple futures prices continue to oscillate at a high level, supported by overall commodity sentiment, the influence of the jujube market, and its own fundamentals. Jujube futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather during the fruit - setting period in the producing areas [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - Apple 2510: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The consumption is average, and the initial production estimate for the new season is better than before, putting pressure on the overall futures price. Support range is 7300 - 7350, and pressure range is 7900 - 8000 [17]. - Jujube 2601: Hold long positions. The overall commodity sentiment is strong, and in the third quarter, jujubes enter the production - forming period, and the price is likely to rise due to weather concerns. Support range is 10200 - 10400, and pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [17]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2509: Short - term band trading. Raw sugar has rebounded, the domestic spot price is firm, but import pressure restricts the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. Support range is 5750 - 5770, and pressure range is 5850 - 5870 [17]. - Pulp 2507: Temporarily wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, the finished paper price is weak, overseas prices are lowered, and the domestic re - inflation trading expectation is positive for pulp. Support range is 5000 - 5100, and pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [17]. - Cotton 2509: Hold long positions cautiously. The previous negative factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices affect the market. Support range is 13200 - 13300, and pressure range is 14400 - 14500 [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamentals**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 3.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 tons. As of July 17, it was 73.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.03 tons. The estimated national apple production is 3659.04 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.03%, but according to another estimate, the 2025 - 2026 production season shows a slight increase [18]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable. In the northwest production area, early - maturing varieties are on the market, and the price is high [19]. - **Jujube Market**: As of July 18, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. Affected by the rising futures price, the spot price in each sales area increased slightly. The market is in the off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Attention should be paid to the new - season production in the producing areas [20]. - **Sugar Market**: Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of July 2025 increased by 9.78% year - on - year. As of Tuesday morning, the spot price of Guangxi sugar - making enterprises decreased to 6010 - 6040 yuan/ton [22]. - **Pulp Market**: The demand is weak, the supplier's quotation is firm, the port inventory is high, and the downstream paper - making market is in the off - season. Arauco lowered the price of its Uruguayan factory's bleached broadleaf pulp by 10 dollars/ton to 490 dollars/ton [25]. - **Cotton Market**: In June 2025, Pakistan's textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year. China's cotton imports in June 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. As of July 15, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased [26][27]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: Apple 2510 closed at 7929, up 0.08%; Jujube 2509 closed at 9485, up 1.23%; Sugar 2509 closed at 5823, down 0.27%; Pulp 2509 closed at 5368, up 0.64%; Cotton 2509 closed at 14225, up 0.28% [27]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 3.90 yuan/jin, down 0.15 yuan month - on - month and 0.25 yuan year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year; sugar was 6050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 410 yuan year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 150 yuan year - on - year; cotton was 15549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan month - on - month and 193 yuan year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 10 - 1 spread is 126, unchanged month - on - month and up 41 year - on - year, expected to oscillate repeatedly, recommend waiting and seeing. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is - 1005, down 960 month - on - month and down 670 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, recommend waiting and seeing. - Sugar 9 - 1 spread is 170, up 1 month - on - month and down 83 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, recommend waiting and seeing [46]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujube: 8912 warehouse receipts, down 35 month - on - month and down 2808 year - on - year. - Sugar: 21359 warehouse receipts, down 78 month - on - month and up 5068 year - on - year. - Pulp: 255819 warehouse receipts, down 100 month - on - month and down 250723 year - on - year. - Cotton: 9436 warehouse receipts, down 65 month - on - month and down 2722 year - on - year [75]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Brazilian port congestion has reduced exports, and uneven rainfall in India threatens sugarcane yield. The news of Coca - Cola North America switching to sucrose has stimulated a rebound in raw sugar, but 350,000 tons of domestic imports have suppressed the domestic market, and the gradual listing of processed sugar has increased supply pressure [3]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is supported by post - pricing of textile enterprises and low inventories, with strong short - term performance due to capital inflows. However, the accumulation of downstream finished - product inventory during the off - season may limit the upside. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [16]. - **Red Dates**: The downstream is in the off - season, with light trading. Sufficient supply of old dates and potential repair of the expected production reduction in the production area may lead to weak and volatile prices. Monitor temperature changes and new jujube fruit setting [22]. - **Apples**: Seasonal fruits impact sales, and packaging is limited in Shandong due to the busy farming season. New - season early - maturing apples have the same opening prices as last year, with limited market impact due to low supply [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On July 18, 2025, SR01 closed at 5656 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.48%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - **Basis**: The basis between Nanning and various sugar futures contracts and between Kunming and various sugar futures contracts showed different degrees of decline on July 17, 2025 [11]. - **Import Prices and Profits**: Brazilian and Thai sugar import prices had different daily and weekly changes. The profit of Brazilian sugar on the futures market also showed seasonal characteristics [14][15]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13965 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04%, and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [17]. - **Spreads**: The cotton 01 - 05 spread was 35 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 5 yuan, and other spreads also showed different changes [18]. Red Dates - **Market Outlook**: The current downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the price may be weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to temperature changes and new jujube fruit - setting [22]. Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, AP01 closed at 7751 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.64%. Spot prices of different apple varieties remained unchanged [27]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The AP01 - 05 spread was - 45 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 4.65%. The disk profit was - 878 yuan with a daily increase of 5.66% [27].