当前时点，如何看待金属煤炭行业？20251008 摘要 ETF 资金流向与黄金价格高度相关，今年海外资金驱动显著，尤其在 Comex 和北美 SPDR ETF 市场，与过去两年中国主导购金的趋势不同。 美国降息预期下修了投资者对美股及美国实体投资回报率的预期，促使 周期性避险资金流入黄金市场，经济数据衰竭加速及政府停摆进一步推 升金价。 短期内，降息初期围绕远端降息概率及经济数据松动背景下，金价上行 趋势将延续，但央行购金结构等因素难以高频跟踪，短端阻力位难以明 确。 长期来看，若历史重演且周期性与趋势性力量共振，黄金可能经历一个 十年左右的中周期，目前涨势已持续七年，预计至少还有三年左右的短 周期时长。 黄金股估值普遍偏低，突破 4,000 美元后，市场信心增强，预计 A 股公 司估值将回到 25-30 倍历史中位数水平，建议关注四季度 A 港股黄金板 块。 Q&A 近期黄金价格突破 4,000 美元的主要驱动因素是什么？ 近期黄金价格突破 4,000 美元的主要驱动因素包括以下几个方面。首先，假期 期间，海外周期性主导的 ETF 资金大规模加仓是推动黄金价格上升的重要原因。 高频数据表明，ETF 资金持仓 ...

智通财经APP获悉，湘财证券发布研报称，2025H1有色行业利润向上游集中，有色板块营收平稳但业 绩大幅增长，盈利能力持续提升，板块现金流改善明显。细分板块来看，2025上半年，铜板块利润增速 显著高于收入，贵金属板块营收及利润大幅增长，稀土板块盈利能力明显修复，钨板块盈利能力平稳抬 升铜板块。贵金属板块方面，在美联储降息预期升温及中长期降息周期下、美债压力加大导致美元走弱 趋势加强及央行储备多元化趋势驱动黄金储备中长期提升背景下，黄金价格有望长期看涨。 湘财证券主要观点如下： 贵金属及小金属板块业绩表现优异。行业层面来看，2025年上半年有色行业累计收入增速逐月收窄，但 上游矿采选业收入增幅仍较2024年有所提升。2025年上半年有色矿采选业营业利润增速明显高于冶炼及 加工业，利润向上游集中。上市公司层面来看，2025H1有色板块营收平稳增长，业绩大幅提升，有色 行业上市公司2025H1实现营业收入1.82万亿元，同比增长6.59%；实现归母净利润953.63亿元，同比增 长35.94%。 2025H1铜板块利润增长显著高于收入增长，但营收及利润增速边际均收窄。收入端来看，2025H1铜板 块实现营收923 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The non-ferrous metal industry has shown significant mid-term profit growth, with excellent performance in precious metals and minor metals sectors [2] - The non-ferrous metal index has increased by 49.27% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 34.96 percentage points [4][16] - The first half of 2025 saw a stable revenue growth in the non-ferrous sector, with a notable increase in net profit [5][36] - The copper sector's profit growth significantly outpaced revenue growth, while precious metals saw substantial increases in both revenue and profit [6][9] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The non-ferrous metal industry has outperformed the market, ranking second among major sectors in terms of growth in the first half of 2025 [18] - The precious metals and minor metals sectors have shown particularly strong performance, with the rare earth sector's growth far exceeding others [22][52] 2. Copper Sector - In the first half of 2025, the copper sector achieved revenue of 923.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.54%, while net profit reached 43.81 billion yuan, up 40.97% [60][62] - The sector's profit growth was significantly higher than revenue growth, indicating improved profitability [63] 3. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector reported a revenue of 188.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.15%, with net profit increasing by 64.71% [6][11] 4. Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials Sector - The rare earth sector saw a turnaround in revenue growth, with net profit significantly increasing in the first half of 2025 [7][8] - The magnetic materials sector also experienced a slight revenue increase, with net profit growth outpacing revenue growth [8] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the copper sector due to supply constraints and favorable demand dynamics, as well as the precious metals sector, which is expected to benefit from a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices [9]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry announced a stock pledge by its controlling shareholder, Chongyi Zhangyuan Investment Holding Co., Ltd., for production and operation purposes [1] - The pledged amount is 35,100,000 shares [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests focusing on industries with real profit realization or strong industrial trends, particularly in resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industries [1] Group 1: Investment Focus - The company emphasizes the importance of industries that have sustainable pricing power, driven by both supply and demand growth in China [1] - Short-term profit realization is highlighted in sectors such as rare earths, cobalt, tungsten, phosphorus chemicals, pesticides, fluorochemicals, and photovoltaic inverters [1] Group 2: Consumer Electronics - September is noted for a series of consumer electronics product launches, indicating a focus on the consumer electronics sector [1] - The report suggests paying special attention to the revaluation opportunities within the Apple supply chain [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is benefiting from the global macro cycle, with U.S. interest rate cuts and Trump-era policies releasing liquidity, driving resource prices into an upward cycle [1][2] - The anticipated interest rate cuts in Q4 2025 and the increase in the U.S. debt ceiling are expected to have significant impacts on the sector [1][2] Key Insights on Gold Stocks - Gold stocks have shown high certainty in the current market, experiencing a 20% pullback despite gold price fluctuations [4] - Historical data indicates that prior to price increases, gold stocks typically see a rise in both EPS and PE [4] - The average gold price in 2025 is projected to be significantly higher than in 2024, suggesting strong performance for companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold [4] Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained, with actual new capacity in early 2025 expected to be around 500,000 to 600,000 tons, lower than the anticipated 1 million tons [5] - Global PMI recovery is expected to gradually restore demand for electrolytic aluminum, with price expectations increasing [5] - The sector's valuation is at historical lows, with mainstream stocks valued at less than 10 times earnings, indicating significant room for recovery [6] Copper Sector Outlook - The copper sector presents investment opportunities driven by financial and industrial attributes, with expectations of price increases due to U.S. interest rate cuts and improved demand from China [7][8] - Supply disruptions from global mining events are contributing to a tightening supply situation, while demand is expected to grow due to macroeconomic factors [7][8] Tungsten Market Dynamics - The rise in tungsten prices is driven by supply contraction, export controls, and its strategic importance [3][9] - China's tungsten product exports have significantly decreased, leading to shortages in overseas markets [10] - The impact of export quotas on prices is critical, with expectations of a potential price increase if the second batch of quotas is reduced [12] Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Xiamen Tungsten, China Tungsten High-Tech, and Anyuan Coal Industry, which are seen as having investment potential in the current market environment [4][14]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Analysis Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to solve the systematic rotation problem of styles by conducting a bottom-up quantitative market trend analysis. It identifies the dominant asset characteristics that represent the future market's mainstream style through a comprehensive comparison of assets[1][5] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model considers five style stages based on the asset's industry lifecycle: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[1][5] - The priority for asset comparison is based on the sequence: growth (g) > return on equity (ROE) > dividend (D)[1][5] - The model uses the spread of asset advantage differences to capture the trend changes of top assets, similar to factor timing[20] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has shown good explanatory power for past A-share style rotations, achieving an annualized return of 27.25% since 2009[15] Model Backtesting Results - **Quantitative Market Trend Analysis Framework**: - 2009: Asset Comparison Strategy 133%, Wind All A 82%, Excess Return 51%[18] - 2010: Asset Comparison Strategy 7%, Wind All A -7%, Excess Return 14%[18] - 2011: Asset Comparison Strategy -33%, Wind All A -22%, Excess Return -11%[18] - 2012: Asset Comparison Strategy 5%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 0%[18] - 2013: Asset Comparison Strategy 41%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 36%[18] - 2014: Asset Comparison Strategy 48%, Wind All A 52%, Excess Return -4%[18] - 2015: Asset Comparison Strategy 55%, Wind All A 38%, Excess Return 16%[18] - 2016: Asset Comparison Strategy -14%, Wind All A -13%, Excess Return -1%[18] - 2017: Asset Comparison Strategy 32%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 27%[18] - 2018: Asset Comparison Strategy -21%, Wind All A -28%, Excess Return 7%[18] - 2019: Asset Comparison Strategy 41%, Wind All A 33%, Excess Return 8%[18] - 2020: Asset Comparison Strategy 69%, Wind All A 26%, Excess Return 44%[18] - 2021: Asset Comparison Strategy 47%, Wind All A 9%, Excess Return 38%[18] - 2022: Asset Comparison Strategy 44%, Wind All A -19%, Excess Return 62%[18] - 2023: Asset Comparison Strategy 5%, Wind All A -5%, Excess Return 10%[18] - 2024: Asset Comparison Strategy 62%, Wind All A 10%, Excess Return 52%[18] - 2025 (Aug): Asset Comparison Strategy 27%, Wind All A 23%, Excess Return 4%[18] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on the highest analyst forecasted growth rates, regardless of the cycle stage[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest expected growth rates as forecasted by analysts[6] - The spread of expected growth advantage differences (Δgf) is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with notable performance in 2014-2015[34] Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest actual growth rates, particularly during transition and growth periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest actual growth rates (Δg)[6] - The spread of actual growth advantage differences (Δg) is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in growth-dominant environments[36] Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with high ROE and low valuation under the PB-ROE framework, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with high ROE and low PB-ROE residuals[6] - The spread of ROE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns from 2016 to 2020, with weaker performance since 2021[39] Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest DP+ROE scores, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest DP+ROE scores[6] - The spread of DP+ROE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[42] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP+BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest DP+BP scores, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest DP+BP scores[6] - The spread of DP+BP advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[45] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[46] Factor Name: Bankruptcy Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores, concentrated in stagnation and recession periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores[6] - The spread of PB+SIZE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[48] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[49] Factor Backtesting Results - **Expected Growth (gf)**: - Cable: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Zhongtian Technology, average market cap 21.791 billion yuan, 3-month performance 49.62%[34] - Cement: 19 stocks, largest weight stock Conch Cement, average market cap 17.929 billion yuan, 3-month performance 12.71%[34] - Glass Fiber: 6 stocks, largest weight stock China Jushi, average market cap 26.657 billion yuan, 3-month performance 63.67%[34] - Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials: 17 stocks, largest weight stock Northern Rare Earth, average market cap 31.018 billion yuan, 3-month performance 98.77%[34] - White Goods III: 10 stocks, largest weight stock Midea Group, average market cap 113.675 billion yuan, 3-month performance -1.21%[34] - **Actual Growth (g)**: - Integrated Circuits: 104 stocks, largest weight stock Cambricon-U, average market cap 45.058 billion yuan, 3-month performance 42.93%[37] - PCB: 38 stocks, largest weight stock Shenghong Technology, average market cap 27.163 billion yuan, 3-month performance 112.10%[37] - Tungsten: 4 stocks, largest weight stock Xiamen Tungsten, average market cap 30.523 billion yuan, 3-month performance 69.26%[37] - Lithium Battery Equipment: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Lead Intelligent, average market cap 11.731 billion yuan, 3-month performance 60.15%[37] - Weapons and Equipment III: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Great Wall Military Industry, average market cap 21.307 billion yuan, 3-month performance 80.22%[37] - **Profitability (ROE)**: - Beer: 7 stocks, largest weight stock Tsingtao Brewery, average market cap 26.758 billion yuan, 3-month performance -3.94%[39] - Liquor: 20 stocks, largest weight stock Kweichow Moutai, average market cap 162.722 billion yuan, 3-month performance 4.12%[39] - Non-dairy Beverages: 7 stocks, largest weight stock Eastroc Beverage, average market cap 32.754 billion yuan, 3-month performance -4.45%[39] - Network Connection and Tower Setup: 19 stocks, largest weight stock Zhongji Xuchuang, average market cap 64.299 billion yuan, 3-month performance 202.29%[39] - Building Decoration III: 28 stocks, largest weight stock Gold Mantis, average market cap 3.436 billion yuan, 3-month performance 4.42%[39] - **Quality Dividend (DP+ROE)**: - Automotive Motor Control: 15

Group 1: Economic Events and Market Impact - The potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may weaken the dollar, providing new momentum for the resource market, particularly precious metals and copper [1] - The geopolitical complexities and resource control by countries, such as cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo and nickel in Indonesia, are leading to a reassessment of the value of scarce resources [1] Group 2: Consumer Electronics and AI - Apple's upcoming fall event is expected to showcase advancements in edge AI technology, which may drive demand growth across the entire supply chain [2] - Meta's release of AR glasses could introduce new development directions for the industry, despite the current lack of widespread application scenarios [2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Investment Opportunities - Industries with significant capital expenditure over the past two years, such as power semiconductors and electrolytes, are showing signs of marginal reduction and may have substantial upside potential [2] - The military industry is expected to enhance expectations for China's military trade exports, with China's arms exports holding a 5.8% share of the global market [3] - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to see an increase in catalytic events, with potential investment value re-emerging as the market shifts focus [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to concentrate their investments in sectors such as resources, innovative drugs, consumer electronics, chemicals, gaming, and military, which show strong development trends and profit realization potential [3] - Consideration of related ETF products, such as those focused on non-ferrous metals, rare metals, and innovative drugs, is recommended for portfolio diversification and risk control [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has seen a significant increase in performance, with an overall rise of 8.37% in the last two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.41 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 industries [2][11]. - The small metals and new materials sectors have shown particularly strong performance, with increases of 21.87% and 13.84% respectively in the same period [2][16]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies on the rare earth sector, leading to a rapid price recovery for rare earth products [4][72]. Industry Analysis Market Performance - As of August 28, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has increased by 16.08% this month and 44.99% year-to-date, ranking 5th and 2nd respectively among 31 industries [11][12]. - The small metals sector has surged by 77.45% year-to-date, while the new materials sector has risen by 55.77% [16]. Price Trends - As of August 28, 2025, key prices include: - LME copper at $9,839.50 per ton - LME aluminum at $2,607 per ton - LME lead at $1,988 per ton - LME zinc at $2,787 per ton - LME nickel at $15,300 per ton - LME tin at $34,825 per ton [22]. - The rare earth price index reached 226.27, up 21.16 from early August, with specific prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide averaging 604 yuan per kilogram [41][72]. Company Performance - Notable companies in the sector include: - China Rare Earth (000831) and Kingstone Permanent Magnet (300748), which are recommended for attention due to their strong market positions [73]. - In the last two weeks, the top-performing stocks include Zhangyuan Tungsten (57.70%), Kingstone Permanent Magnet (54.48%), and Northern Rare Earth (46.39%) [18][20]. - Year-to-date, the top gainers are Copper Crown Copper Foil (217.60%), Zhongzhou Special Materials (211.00%), and Northern Rare Earth (165.00%) [20].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced significant activity with 52 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 3 stocks hitting the limit down on August 29 [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector, particularly tungsten concept stocks, showed strong performance with Guangsheng Nonferrous Materials hitting the limit up [1] - Solid-state battery concept stocks also surged, with Guoxuan High-Tech and Xian Dao Intelligent both reaching the limit up [1] - The energy metals sector saw gains, highlighted by Shengtun Mining hitting the limit up [1] Group 2 - Tianpu Co., Ltd. achieved a six-day consecutive limit up, while Changfei Optical Fiber and *ST Mubang recorded four limit ups in five days [1] - Other notable stocks include Dechuang Environmental Protection with four consecutive limit ups, and *ST Weier with three limit ups in four days [1] - Agricultural products and Jianye Co., Ltd. both achieved three consecutive limit ups, while Shengtai Group and Yaxing Chemical had four limit ups in two days [1] - China Rare Earth and Sanwei Communication recorded two consecutive limit ups, while China Jushi and Tongfu Microelectronics also hit the limit up [1] Group 3 - *ST Gaohong faced a continuous decline with 15 consecutive limit downs, alongside *ST Yazhen and Chunz中科技 also hitting the limit down [2]