——国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 49 期） 本报告导读： 商品与服务消费表现分化，投资端延续偏弱格局，生产有所改善。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 上周高频数据显示，消费呈现结构分化，商品消费整体表现偏弱， 汽车销售热度有所回落，高端白酒价格延续下行，纺服需求虽季节 性回升但不及往年同期；服务消费中人口流动相对平稳，上海游乐 消费淡季表现亮眼。投资端延续偏弱格局，基建开工建设放缓，地 产新房成交边际回落。进出口方面，港口离港船舶数呈季节性回升， 国内外运价因需求差异分化延续。生产端或因年末赶工以回升为主， 库存港口煤炭持续季节性补库，化工链库存多数去化。物价方面， 工业品价格回落，CPI 仍显分化。流动性层面，美元指数持续回落， 资金利率小幅抬升。 风险提示：贸易局势不确定性，国内需求修复不及预期 | 内需仍待提振 | [Table_Authors] | 李林芷(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | ——国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 期） 49 | | 021-23185646 | | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 本报告导读： | 登记编号 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - October CPI shows a positive marginal change, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, compared to a market expectation of -0.1% and a previous value of -0.3%[5] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.2%, surpassing the previous month's increase of 0.1% and the five-year historical average of 0.02%[7] - The improvement in CPI is primarily driven by food, services, and non-energy industrial consumer goods, influenced by holiday-related consumption and external factors[8] Group 2: PPI Insights - October PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first increase of the year, while the year-on-year decline was 2.1%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[29] - The recovery in PPI is attributed to easing supply-demand pressures and external input factors, particularly in the coal and non-ferrous sectors[34] - Production material prices rose by 0.1%, contributing approximately 0.08 percentage points to the PPI increase, with significant increases in coal mining and non-ferrous metal prices[32] Group 3: Price Trends and Risks - Service prices showed notable recovery in October, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, influenced by holiday effects, particularly in travel-related categories[17] - Despite overall improvements, certain categories like pork and tobacco prices remain weak, with pork prices down 2.5% month-on-month, impacting CPI negatively by approximately 0.03 percentage points[25] - Risks include geopolitical uncertainties, slower-than-expected recovery in domestic employment and income, and potential underperformance of policy effects[44]

Core Insights - The report highlights steady growth in urban and rural residents' disposable income in Sichuan province, with urban residents earning an average of 37,338 yuan and rural residents earning 16,741 yuan, reflecting nominal growth rates of 4.5% and 5.5% respectively [2][7] - The consumer price index (CPI) in Sichuan has shown a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, influenced by various factors including slow domestic consumption recovery and price competition in certain industries [3][4] - The report indicates a structural decline in prices, with service prices rising by 0.3% while consumer goods prices fell by 0.8%, highlighting a shift in consumer spending patterns [4][5] Income and Consumption - The average disposable income for residents in Sichuan reached 27,046 yuan, with a nominal increase of 5.3% year-on-year, and a real increase of 5.7% after adjusting for inflation [7] - Urban residents' average consumption expenditure was 23,690 yuan, growing by 4.7%, while rural residents' expenditure was 13,902 yuan, with a higher growth rate of 5.6% [7] - The share of service consumption in total spending has increased, with per capita service expenditure rising to 8,608 yuan, a growth of 6.1% [6][7] Price Trends - The report notes that prices for eight categories of goods and services experienced five increases and three decreases, with healthcare prices rising by 0.6% and food prices declining by 1.0% [2][4] - The core CPI in Sichuan showed a positive trend, increasing by 0.4% year-on-year, with a notable rise in September reaching a high of 0.6% [5] - Industrial producer prices (PPI) decreased by 2.8%, but there are signs of recovery in certain sectors, particularly in high-tech industries, which have seen price increases [5][6] Consumer Behavior - The report emphasizes that rural consumption growth outpaced urban consumption, indicating a significant potential in rural markets [7] - The increase in consumer spending is attributed to various government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption, including policies for replacing old consumer goods [6][7] - Notably, spending on transportation and communication services saw substantial growth, with increases of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively [6]

Consumption - Post-holiday consumption has shown a slight decline, with retail and wholesale automobile sales significantly dropping compared to the previous week, indicating a temporary "vacuum" in market demand after pre-holiday promotions[6] - The wholesale price index for agricultural products increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while the price of Moutai liquor has significantly decreased, reflecting a broader trend of price adjustments in consumer goods[6] - Service consumption has returned to normal levels, with a notable decline in movie attendance and tourism prices, indicating the end of the holiday "pulse" effect[7] Investment - Infrastructure investment has seen a cumulative issuance of special bonds amounting to CNY 3.81 trillion as of October 18, with an additional CNY 133.88 billion issued in October, suggesting a supportive funding environment for infrastructure projects[17] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities have shown a seasonal rebound, with first-tier and third-tier cities experiencing a narrowing of year-on-year declines, while second-tier cities have turned positive[17] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices have decreased by 4.1% month-on-month, while import prices fell by 2.2%, indicating weak demand in non-mainline shipping routes[23] - The Shanghai and Ningbo export container price indices increased by 12.9% and 16.8% respectively, reflecting a recovery in demand for mainline shipping routes post-holiday[23] Production - Most production sectors have shown improvement post-holiday, with coal consumption in coastal provinces increasing, although steel production has seen a mixed performance with some declines in output[26] - The operating rate for asphalt has slightly increased, indicating a gradual recovery in construction activities following the holiday[17] Inventory and Prices - Coal inventories at ports have significantly decreased, while cement inventory ratios have slightly increased, reflecting varying demand across sectors[36] - Consumer prices have shown a slight overall increase, while industrial prices have generally declined, with the PPI for industrial products decreasing by 1.1% month-on-month[38] Liquidity - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of CNY 231.9 billion to maintain liquidity stability, with the dollar index declining by 27 basis points, indicating a stable overall liquidity environment[42]

Core Insights - China is the world's second-largest goods import market, presenting significant opportunities for global trade [1] - In the first three quarters, the decline in prices of some major commodities affected import growth, but the quantity index of imports increased by 0.6% year-on-year [1] - Import volumes of crude oil and metal ores rose by 2.6% and 4.2% respectively, while the import value of food, tobacco, and cultural products grew by 10.2% and 9.4% [1] - The removal of foreign investment restrictions in the manufacturing sector led to a 1.1% increase in imports from foreign-invested enterprises [1] Import Growth and Market Expansion - China is actively expanding its import market, having added 135 new agricultural and food products from 50 countries and regions in the first three quarters [1] - A 100% zero-tariff policy on products from the least developed countries with which China has diplomatic relations resulted in a 9.7% increase in imports from these nations [1] - China is promoting economic partnership agreements, implementing a 100% zero-tariff policy for products from 53 African countries [1] Upcoming Events and Innovations - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held in Shanghai next month, serving as a platform for showcasing new products and facilitating entry for multinational companies into the Chinese market [1] - Innovative products, including family companion robots and advanced technology items, will debut at the expo [1] - Customs will enhance clearance measures and innovate regulatory models to help global enterprises access China's vast market [1]

Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

Consumption - Service consumption continues to decline, while durable goods consumption shows weakness[5] - Food and clothing consumption sees seasonal increases, but overall demand remains weak[5] - Movie attendance and box office revenue drop to historical lows, indicating reduced consumer interest[6] Investment - Real estate sector remains weak, with new home sales not showing sustained improvement despite policy optimizations in major cities[15] - Infrastructure investment shows marginal recovery, but overall funding remains below last year's levels[15] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices continue to decline, with a decrease of 2.1% in export freight rates, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments[22] - Port activity increases with the upcoming Christmas stocking season, reflecting a rise in overseas demand[22] Production - Overall production heat is recovering, with significant increases in coal consumption and steel production rates[25] - The operating rate for PTA has rebounded significantly, driven by increased demand in the textile sector[27] Prices and Inflation - CPI remains stable, while PPI shows a general decline, with industrial prices mostly decreasing[37] - Cement prices have dropped by 2.0% due to weak construction demand, while copper and aluminum prices have increased by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively[37] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.86%, the highest level in 2025, reflecting strong equity market performance and improved inflation data[39] - The overall liquidity remains stable, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos by the central bank[39] Risks - Trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks pose significant threats to market stability[46]

Consumption - Travel and tourism activity remains high, with significant recovery in urban and intercity population movement, reflected in increased subway ridership and flight operations[7] - Retail and wholesale volumes for automobiles have slightly declined, indicating a weakening effect of promotional activities and subsidies[7] - Movie attendance and box office revenues have significantly decreased post-summer, indicating a drop in consumer interest[7] Investment - New special bonds issued reached CNY 3.08 trillion as of August 16, with a recent acceleration in issuance[20] - Real estate transaction volumes remain subdued, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a slight recovery but still down year-on-year[20] - Construction activity is marginally improving, with asphalt operating rates increasing and cement shipment rates recovering seasonally[20] Trade and Prices - Import and export volumes are showing divergence, with a 11.1% decline in imports from China to South Korea and a 4.3% drop in global exports[26] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased for seven consecutive weeks, reflecting a retreat from previous shipping surges due to tariff concerns[26] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remains flat overall, with industrial prices showing little change except for a notable 15% increase in lithium carbonate prices[44] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 5.7 basis points to 1.75%, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[47] - The US dollar index fell by 42 basis points, influenced by moderate inflation data from July, which strengthened expectations for a potential interest rate cut in September[47]

Group 1 - The total per capita expenditure on food, tobacco, and alcohol for residents nationwide in Q2 2025 reached 4355 yuan, reflecting a cumulative growth of 3.3% [1] - The per capita expenditure for urban residents on food, tobacco, and alcohol accumulated to 5215 yuan, with a cumulative growth of 2.5% [1] - The per capita expenditure for rural residents on food, tobacco, and alcohol amounted to 3138 yuan, showing a cumulative growth of 4.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with exports increasing by 7.3% and imports decreasing by 1.6% [5]. Trade Performance - Total goods trade value for July 2025 was 3.91 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 6.7%, with exports at 2.31 trillion yuan (up 8%) and imports at 1.6 trillion yuan (up 4.8%) [5]. - General trade and processing trade both saw increases, with general trade at 16.44 trillion yuan (up 2.1%) and processing trade at 4.6 trillion yuan (up 6.3%) [5][6]. Trade Partners - ASEAN emerged as China's largest trading partner with a total trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan (up 9.4%), followed by the EU at 3.35 trillion yuan (up 3.9%) and the US at 2.42 trillion yuan (down 11.1%) [5][6]. Enterprise Contributions - Private enterprises contributed significantly with a total trade value of 14.68 trillion yuan (up 7.4%), accounting for 57.1% of total foreign trade [6]. - Foreign-invested enterprises had a trade value of 7.46 trillion yuan (up 2.6%), while state-owned enterprises saw a decline to 3.49 trillion yuan (down 8.8%) [6]. Export Composition - Mechanical and electrical products constituted 60% of exports, totaling 9.18 trillion yuan (up 9.3%), with notable growth in integrated circuits (up 21.8%) and automobiles (up 10.9%) [6]. - Labor-intensive products saw a slight decline in exports, totaling 2.41 trillion yuan (down 0.8%) [6]. Import Trends - Major bulk commodity prices fell, with iron ore imports at 6.97 million tons (down 2.3%) and crude oil at 3.27 million tons (up 2.8%) [7]. - Imports of mechanical and electrical products increased to 4.09 trillion yuan (up 5.8%) [7].