《进口扰动及需求好转驱动鸡肉价格 上行，蛋鸡产能偏高或压制蛋价上行 空间—行业点评报告》-2025.9.22 《生猪板块回调继续积极配置，宠物 食品出口量同比延续增长—行业周 报》-2025.9.21 10 中美关税扰动再起，农业板块防守价值凸显 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（分析师） | | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790525070003 | 农林牧渔 2025 年 10 月 12 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《生猪能繁去化逻辑加强，牛肉牛奶 或于 2026 年实现联动向上—行业周 报》-2025.9.28 周观察：中美关税扰动再起，农业板块防守价值凸显 中美关税扰动再起，农业板块低位防守价值显现。美东时间 2025 年 10 月 8 日 美商务部宣布将多家中国实体列入出口管制 ...

国内领先的非织造布生产商;公司生产的热风非制造布可用于尿裤和! 流层材料、底膜层材料等 联发股份 全球色织布面料龙头 安正时尚 公司聚焦中高档品牌时装, 上半年净利润同比扭亏 庄园牧场 2天2板 甘肃、青海区域乳制品龙头,预计上半年同比大幅减亏 新澳股份 ~ 羊毛产业链龙头,主要产品为精纺纯羊绒及羊绒混纺类, 手要用于世 织服装,包括羊绒衫、羊毛衫、羊毛内衣等等 傲农生物 公司主营业务包括饲料、养猪、食品和贸易, 下属食品子公司如银祥! 属于预制菜性质 遥望科技 子公司遥望网络已跻身头部MCN机构,拥有签约及孵化短视频平台IP 星及主播数量超110位，合计总粉丝数超3.68亿，月曝光量超30亿 依依股份 公司专注于宠物卫生护理用品领域 名臣健康 公司主要产品包括洗发水、护发素、沐浴露、嘟喱水及护肤品等 养元饮品 7天4板 全国核桃乳产销量最大企业：公司控制的泉泓投资对长江存储科技控 资人民币16亿,交易完成后,泉泓投资持有长控集团0.99%的股份 富 - Ja 商务部、海关总署:对人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制 宝泰隆 型龙江省煤化工行业龙头、国内石墨烯行业领先企业之一、目各针状佳 沪指缩量下跌0.94 ...

在埃及尼罗河三角洲的乡村田野上，中国企业不仅带来优质的农业饲料，更带来先进技术、就业机会与 发展希望。10余年来，中国企业用行动不断书写着跨越国界的合作故事，为埃及农业振兴注入持续动 力：从村庄里的妇女培训，到现代化工厂落成，再到产业链条的不断延伸，一颗颗"希望的种子"生根发 芽。 "让妇女获得一门靠得住的谋生技巧，将大大助力埃及的脱贫事业" 埃及曼努菲亚省，阳光下的田野散发着青草的气息。在苏巴克·阿哈德村"家庭与农业发展中心"的二层 小楼里，一场别开生面的培训课程正在进行。这是由中国驻埃及大使馆、新希望六和埃及公司与当地多 家社会组织共同发起的公益项目——让百名妇女获得鸡苗、饲料和工具，并接受完整养殖周期的培训。 项目旨在帮助贫困家庭掌握技能，真正依靠双手获得持续收益，逐步掌握脱贫致富的方法。 院子里摆放着新发放的饲料袋、饮水器和阿拉伯文版的养殖手册。"我第一次觉得自己能改善家里的生 活状况。"45岁的村民阿米娜告诉本报记者。以前，她家庭的收入全靠丈夫外出打零工。如今她通过学 到的技能，可以养鸡创收，改善生活水平。 "车轮滚动的是养殖业的未来，也是我幸福生活的明天" 曾经，埃及家禽养殖业发展滞后，饲料品质参 ...

新华财经北京9月29日电据农业农村部对全国500个县集贸市场和采集点的监测，9月第4周（采集日为9 月25日）鸡蛋、鸡肉、牛肉、肉羊、生鲜乳价格环比上涨，生猪产品、玉米、豆粕、育肥猪配合饲料、 蛋鸡配合饲料价格环比下跌，商品代雏鸡、活牛、肉鸡配合饲料价格环比持平。 生猪产品价格 全国仔猪平均价格29.07元／公斤，比前一周下跌3.2%，同比下跌26.2%。全国29个监测省份仔猪价格全 部下跌。华南地区价格较高，为31.61元／公斤；华北地区价格较低，为27.93元／公斤。全国生猪平均 价格13.52元／公斤，比前一周下跌2.4%，同比下跌28.6%。全国30个监测省份生猪价格全部下跌。华南 地区价格较高，为14.55元／公斤；东北地区价格较低，为12.95元／公斤。全国猪肉平均价格24.29元／ 公斤，比前一周下跌0.9%，同比下跌21.2%。青海、宁夏、海南、北京4个省份猪肉价格上涨，天津、 新疆、湖北、广西、吉林等26个省份猪肉价格下跌。华南地区价格较高，为27.57元／公斤；东北地区 价格较低，为20.92元／公斤。 家禽产品价格 全国鸡蛋平均价格9.34元／公斤，比前一周上涨1.2%，同比下跌19.7 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The investment logic for the pig industry continues to strengthen due to dual catalysts from policies and diseases, with a recommendation for long-term positioning despite current price lows [3][5] - The pet food export volume continues to grow year-on-year, indicating a sustained positive trend in the pet food market [4][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The pig price is running at a low level, with the national average price at 12.71 yuan/kg as of September 21, 2025, down 0.50 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 5.73 yuan/kg year-on-year [3][13] - The average weight of pigs sold is 128.45 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week and year-on-year [3][13] - The pig industry is expected to see a strong execution of policies aimed at capacity reduction, which will enhance the expectations for substantial capacity reduction [3][13] Weekly Viewpoint - The investment logic for the pig industry is marginally improving, with a recommendation for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [5][24] - The domestic feed market is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [5][25] - The pet food sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [5][28] Market Performance (September 15-19) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 1.40 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 2.70% [6][29] - Leading stocks included Shennong Biotechnology (+9.36%), Xuelong Biotechnology (+7.64%), and Tianma Technology (+3.90%) [6][29] Price Tracking (September 15-19) - The average price of pigs was 12.68 yuan/kg, down 0.66 yuan/kg from the previous week [7][37] - The average price of piglets was 22.38 yuan/kg, down 1.57 yuan/kg week-on-week [7][37] - The average price of beef was 65.60 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase [44][37] Key News (September 15-19) - Notification regarding the central reserve frozen pork storage auction scheduled for September 23, 2025, with 15,000 tons available for auction [35]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig sector's expected differences, highlighting the current low prices and the potential for capacity reduction due to policy guidance and weak demand [11][12] - The dairy and beef sectors are seen as entering a new cycle, with opportunities arising from the recovery of raw milk prices and the initiation of a beef super cycle [13] - The pet industry is experiencing rapid growth, with domestic brands rising and export trends improving, indicating a robust pet economy [14] - The poultry sector faces challenges with breeding imports and demand fluctuations, suggesting a focus on self-breeding opportunities [16][19] - The planting sector is shifting towards biological breeding strategies to ensure food security, with a focus on increasing yields through improved seed technology [21] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to market share growth and consistent performance, particularly in companies like Haida Group [22] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of September 6, the average price of pigs is 13.87 CNY/kg, up 0.73% from the previous week, while the price of piglets is at a new low of 324 CNY/head [11] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong profitability, with leading firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs highlighted for their market capitalization [12] Beef Sector - Raw milk prices are stabilizing, and the beef cycle may be starting, with a focus on companies that can leverage mother cow resources [13] Pet Sector - The domestic pet food market is growing, with significant sales increases noted, and companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are recommended for investment [14] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the uncertainty in breeding imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, with a recommendation to focus on self-breeding opportunities [16][17] - The yellow chicken market is expected to see price improvements due to demand increases in the second half of the year [19] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving higher yields through biological breeding, with key recommendations for seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [21] Feed Sector - Haida Group is recommended for its increasing market share and consistent performance in the feed industry, with expectations of a market recovery [22]

Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing mixed price trends for various livestock and feed products, with some prices increasing while others are declining [1][2]. Livestock Prices - The average price of piglets in China is 32.68 yuan/kg, down 1.7% week-on-week and down 25.7% year-on-year [1] - The national average price for pigs is 14.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6% week-on-week and 30.1% year-on-year [1] - The average price of pork is 24.81 yuan/kg, down 0.5% week-on-week and down 22.0% year-on-year [1] - The average price of beef is 70.41 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week and up 3.2% year-on-year [2] - The average price of lamb is 69.02 yuan/kg, up 0.1% week-on-week but down 1.7% year-on-year [2] Poultry Prices - The average price of eggs is 8.87 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week but down 22.8% year-on-year [1] - The average price of chicken is 22.45 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week and down 5.9% year-on-year [1] - The average price of broiler chicks is 3.47 yuan each, up 1.5% week-on-week but down 2.5% year-on-year [1] - The average price of layer chicks is 3.76 yuan each, unchanged week-on-week and down 2.3% year-on-year [1] Feed Prices - The average price of corn is 2.49 yuan/kg, down 0.4% week-on-week and down 1.6% year-on-year [2] - The average price of soybean meal is 3.31 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 1.5% year-on-year [2] - The average price of fattening pig feed is 3.40 yuan/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week but down 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The average price of broiler feed is 3.51 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 2.2% year-on-year [2] - The average price of layer feed is 3.23 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 2.1% year-on-year [2]

Core Insights - Thailand's government has reached a new tariff agreement with the United States, which implements zero tariffs on over 90% of U.S. products while establishing protective measures for certain sensitive agricultural products [1] Group 1: Tariff Agreement Details - The agreement includes a gradual tariff reduction on U.S. pork, with import quantity limits set to allow U.S. pork to account for less than 1% of domestic consumption [1] - U.S. pork exports must be free of ractopamine, a substance banned in Thailand, to comply with local regulations [1] Group 2: Impact on Local Industry - The measures aim to provide space for U.S. companies to test the market while allowing local producers, such as CP Group and Betagro, time to adjust and mitigate impacts [1] - For corn, Thailand will prioritize local corn purchases at fixed prices for domestic feed mills before allowing quota imports of U.S. corn [1] - The Thai Feed Mill Association estimates that Thailand could import up to $2.8 billion worth of U.S. corn, soybean meal, and distiller's grains annually [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that a new round of price increases for pigs may gradually begin, with the African swine fever vaccine opening growth opportunities for the animal health sector [4][5] - The report emphasizes that the investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, with recommendations for specific companies [5][31] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - As of August 15, 2025, the national average price of live pigs is 13.73 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.06 CNY/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 7.44% [4][13] - The price premium for 150kg fat pigs over 120kg standard pigs is 0.28 CNY/kg, indicating a tightening supply [4][13] Weekly Market Performance (August 11-15) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.84 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 0.14% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70% [6][35] - Key stocks that led the gains include COFCO Sugar (+41.04%), Shunli Biological (+13.97%), and Xiaoming Co. (+8.86%) [6][35] Price Tracking (August 11-15) - The average price of live pigs on August 15 is 13.76 CNY/kg, a slight increase from the previous week [6][46] - The average price of piglets is 28.87 CNY/kg, showing a decrease of 5.03% from the previous week [6][46] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.20 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.84% [6][51] Key News (August 11-15) - The central government allocated 1.146 billion CNY for agricultural disaster relief, supporting major grain-producing provinces [6][41]

Core Insights - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department reported price fluctuations in various agricultural products for the first week of August, indicating a mixed trend in the market [1][2]. Price Trends - **Pork Products**: - Average price of piglets: 34.66 CNY/kg, down 1.2% week-on-week and down 21.6% year-on-year - Average price of live pigs: 14.53 CNY/kg, down 0.9% week-on-week and down 28.1% year-on-year - Average price of pork: 25.16 CNY/kg, down 0.2% week-on-week and down 18.1% year-on-year [1]. - **Poultry Products**: - Average price of eggs: 8.75 CNY/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 19.9% year-on-year - Average price of chicken: 22.40 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 5.8% year-on-year - Average price of broiler chicks: 3.28 CNY each, up 2.5% week-on-week and down 8.4% year-on-year - Average price of layer chicks: 3.78 CNY each, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 1.0% year-on-year [1]. - **Beef and Lamb Products**: - Average price of beef: 69.85 CNY/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week and up 2.2% year-on-year - Average price of lamb: 68.74 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 2.3% year-on-year [1]. Feed Prices - **Corn**: - National average price: 2.50 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 3.1% year-on-year - Northeast region average: 2.30 CNY/kg, up 0.4% week-on-week - Guangdong province average: 2.59 CNY/kg, up 0.4% week-on-week [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: - National average price: 3.28 CNY/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week and down 5.2% year-on-year [2]. - **Fattening Pig Feed**: - Average price: 3.39 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 3.7% year-on-year - Average price of meat chicken feed: 3.51 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 3.0% year-on-year - Average price of egg-laying chicken feed: 3.23 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 3.3% year-on-year [2].