Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating downward [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Palm Oil: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating and slightly bullish [1][2] - Pigs: Oscillating and slightly bearish [2] Core Viewpoints - Corn futures' November contract shows a technical rebound after continuous decline, with the spot market facing increased pressure from new corn listings. Short - term attention is on whether the contract can break through the price low in mid - August, and the medium - term operation follows a bearish idea [1]. - CBOT soybean meal and soybean prices decline due to a stronger dollar and US harvest pressure. Domestic two - meal prices continue to fall, and the strategy is to participate in the short - term [1]. - BMD palm oil falls following the surrounding market. The domestic oil market is weak, and the strategy is to bet on increased volatility [1]. - The egg futures' 2511 contract oscillates with a slight rebound at the end of the session. The spot price corrects after a continuous rebound. The supply - side pressure on egg prices may ease in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [1][2]. - The pig futures' 2511 contract continues to decline. The spot price also drops, and the demand is weak. In the short term, the pig price may remain weak, but it may be supported by increased demand as the temperature drops [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The November contract rebounds technically after a continuous decline. The spot market in the production area expects an increase in new corn listings after mid - September, and the price in the Liaoning production area weakens. In the North China region, the price continues to be weak, and the price in the sales area is temporarily stable. The short - term is to beware of a rebound after a sharp decline, and the medium - term is bearish [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fall due to a stronger dollar and harvest pressure. The export sales of US soybeans meet expectations, and domestic two - meal prices reach a one - and - a - half - month low. The strategy is short - term participation [1]. - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil falls following the surrounding market. High - frequency data shows a decrease in exports. The domestic oil market is weak, and the strategy is to bet on increased volatility [1]. - **Eggs**: The 2511 contract oscillates with a slight rebound, and the spot price corrects after a continuous rebound. The supply - side pressure on egg prices may ease in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price drops. The demand is weak, and the short - term pig price may remain weak. It may be supported by increased demand as the temperature drops [2]. Market Information - From September 14th to 17th, Liu Huanxin led a team to investigate grain and material reserve work in Heilongjiang, emphasizing the importance of grain storage and logistics facilities projects [3]. - Zhengshang Institute cancels the designated delivery warehouse qualification of Orient Group Grain and Oil Food Co., Ltd. for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [3]. - In August, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; soybean oil imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%; rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7% [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: It includes the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][6][7][11][15] - **Contract Basis**: It includes the basis of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][14][17][18][24] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and achievements [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with rich experience and many honors [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant experience and honors [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro news, and fund flows. It also presents forecasts on global and regional soybean production, trade, and consumption, as well as the impact of weather on crops [1][7]. Summary by Section 01 & 02 Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of various commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and their related products are presented, along with currency exchange rates and basis data for some futures contracts [1][2]. - For example, the closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil for December is 4439.00, with a previous -day decline of 0.89% and an overnight decline of 0.11% [1]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - The future weather outlook for major soybean - producing states in the US from September 23 - 27 shows higher - than - normal temperatures and precipitation near to below the median in the Midwest [3]. - The high temperature in the Midwest and rainfall in the west are unfavorable for crop maturity and harvesting, but may help reduce drought and supply water to the Mississippi River [5]. - International Supply and Demand - - IGC predicts that the global soybean production in 2025/26 will be basically flat year - on - year at 4.29 billion tons, and the trade volume in 2024/25 will increase by 2 million tons month - on - month [7]. - As of September 16, about 36% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 22% the previous week [8]. - As of September 11, US soybean export sales increased by 925,300 tons, meeting expectations, and the export shipment volume increased by 31% compared to the previous week [8]. - CONAB estimates that Brazil's soybean production in 2025/26 will increase by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons [10]. - The EU and UK's rapeseed production in 2025 is expected to be 21.6 million tons, higher than the June forecast [10]. - Domestic Supply and Demand - - On September 18, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 380 tons (2%) compared to the previous trading day [13]. - On September 18, the trading volume of soybean meal decreased by 99,200 tons compared to the previous day, and the national oil - mill operating rate decreased by 1.13% [14]. - China's August imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, while the cumulative imports from January - August showed different trends [14]. 04 Macro News - International News - - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9% [17]. - The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on November 5 regarding the legality of Trump's large - scale global tariff collection [17]. - Domestic News - - On September 18, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1085, up 72 points (yuan depreciation) [19]. - On September 18, the Chinese central bank conducted 487 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 195 billion yuan [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On September 18, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 10.858 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 6.128 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net inflow of 16.653 billion yuan and bond futures had a net inflow of 390 million yuan [22]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For both the粕类 and玉米 sectors, the overall strategy is rated as neutral [3] 2. Core Views - The adjustment in this report is slightly higher than market expectations, with the price of US soybeans declining. Attention should be focused on the changes in the new - season US soybeans. In the Chinese market, the strengthening of Brazilian soybean premiums has increased import costs, supporting domestic soybean prices. However, the domestic soybean supply remains abundant, and downstream inventories are high. Attention should also be paid to Sino - US policy changes [2] - For corn, on the supply side, the remaining old - crop corn with traders is limited, and its price is firm. New - crop corn is gradually coming onto the market, and traders are trying to buy at lower prices. But due to the acquisition needs of deep - processing enterprises, the price of new - crop corn in Heilongjiang has slightly increased. On the demand side, feed enterprises mainly use their existing inventories and are cautious about purchasing new - crop corn, while deep - processing enterprises also hope to buy at lower prices. Attention should be paid to the listing and acquisition of new - crop corn [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data (粕类) - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean粕2601 contract was 2993 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous day; the closing price of the菜粕2601 contract was 2470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.41%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the spot price of bean粕 was 2980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the spot price of菜粕 was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Market Information**: Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters expects soybean exports in September 2025 to be 753 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and last year's figure. From January to September 2025, exports are expected to reach 9563 million tons, and from October to December, 1600 million tons [1] Market News and Important Data (Corn) - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn2511 contract was 2177 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+ 0.74%); the closing price of the corn starch2511 contract was 2471 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+ 0.73%) [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - **Market Information**: Canada's 2025 wheat production is expected to be 3660 million tons, a 1.9% year - on - year increase, with an increase in both yield per acre and harvested area [3] Market Analysis - For soybeans, the US soybean price decline is due to the report adjustment. In China, higher import costs support domestic prices, but supply is abundant and downstream inventories are high [2] - For corn, the supply is in a state of transition from old - crop to new - crop, and the demand side is cautious, waiting for better prices [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for both sectors is neutral [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [9] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating Strongly [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [16] - Pulp: Oscillating [17] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating [20] 2. Report's Core View - Most agricultural products showed a downward trend on September 19, 2025. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, weather, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions. The market trends of different products vary, including oscillations, oscillations with an upward or downward bias [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends of Different Varieties - **Oils and Fats**: Concerns about the US biodiesel policy are rising, increasing the downward pressure on oil prices. The market is affected by factors such as US soybean conditions, palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory situation in China. It is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Protein Meal**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the double - meal followed the market decline. Internationally, factors such as US soybean conditions, South American sowing progress, and CFTC positions affect the market. Domestically, there are issues of inventory accumulation and demand changes. It is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: The support at 2150 is strong, and the short - term market may fluctuate. The current price is stable with a slight downward trend, and the supply and demand situation is affected by new grain listing and other factors. It is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8]. - **Live Pigs**: Before the festival, inventory is continuously reduced, and the supply and demand of live pigs are loose. In the short term, supply is abundant, and in the long term, the impact of capacity - reduction policies needs to be observed. It is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to negative sentiment, the rubber price dropped significantly. However, the fundamentals are still relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions during the callback in September, and the short - term trend is expected to oscillate strongly [10][12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The weakening of natural rubber dragged down synthetic rubber. The price is in the range of 11300 - 12300, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14]. - **Cotton**: After the interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled, Zhengzhou cotton declined under the bearish commodity atmosphere. In the short term, the callback space is limited, and the downward pressure will increase after the large - scale listing of new cotton. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. - **Sugar**: Due to the overall bearish commodity atmosphere, the sugar price declined. In the long term, the new season's supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly; in the short term, it will oscillate downward to find support [16]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious driving force for a breakthrough, and it maintains an oscillating trend. The current supply - demand situation is affected by factors such as the effectiveness of price increases in the US dollar market and seasonal demand. It is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Offset Paper**: The trading volume is low, and it runs in a narrow - range oscillation. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and it is recommended to operate in the range of 4000 - 4500. It is expected to oscillate [18]. - **Logs**: With the adjustment of commodities, logs oscillate weakly. The current market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. It is expected that the price may stop falling and stabilize in September [20]. 3.2 Commodity Index Information - On September 18, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the commodity index all declined, with declines of 0.94%, 1.04%, and 1.06% respectively. The agricultural product index declined by 0.42% on that day, with a 5 - day decline of 1.16%, a 1 - month decline of 2.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.24% [178][180].

2025 年 9 月 19 日 棕榈油：上下均无明显驱动，区间操作为主 豆油：出口重现，油脂回调布多 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,304 | -1.27% | 9,342 | 0.41% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,284 | -0.98% | 8,346 | 0.75% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,984 | -0.15% | 10,006 | 0.22% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,403 | -1.01% | 4,411 | 0.14% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 51.17 | -1.18% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 627,749 | -52883 | 423,179 | -12,824 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price of cotton has bottom - support as the commercial inventory is decreasing and the peak season for cotton textile is coming. The strategy recommendation is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5840.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15250.0 yuan [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.13, with a change of 4.00%. US cotton closed at 66.92, with a change of - 0.39% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widened price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, the cotton price has bottom - support [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10629.0, with a change of - 3.27%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 4438.0, with a change of - 3.84% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: The sugarcane growth in southern producing areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected, which delays the sugar factory's start - up time. Brazil's sugar production progress has accelerated, and the market expects production to exceed consumption. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is revised down. The overall growth of cotton this season is better than last year. As the textile market enters the traditional peak season, cotton demand is expected to recover, and the price has the impetus to rise [3] Data Quick View - **Outer - market Quotes**: US sugar rose from 15.51 to 16.13, a 4.00% increase; US cotton fell from 67.18 to 66.92, a - 0.39% decrease [4] - **Spot Prices**: Nanning sugar spot price decreased from 5870.0 to 5840.0, a - 0.51% decrease; Kunming sugar spot price decreased from 5860.0 to 5850.0, a - 0.17% decrease; cotton index 328 increased from 3281 to 3280, a 0.06% increase; Xinjiang cotton spot price increased from 15200.0 to 15250.0, a 0.33% increase [4] - **Spread Quick View**: SR01 - 05 decreased by - 5.26%, SR05 - 09 increased by 100.00%, SR09 - 01 decreased by - 100.00%, CF01 - 05 remained unchanged, CF05 - 09 increased by 20.00%, CF09 - 01 increased by 27.27%. Sugar and cotton basis for different contracts also had corresponding changes [4] - **Import Prices**: Cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.1 [4] - **Profit Margins**: Sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1587.5 [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility and historical volatility of different sugar and cotton option contracts are given [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 10988.0 to 10629.0, a - 3.27% decrease; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 4615.0 to 4438.0, a - 3.84% decrease [4]

Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw a decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on September 18, with corn down 2.25 cents to $4.2450 per bushel, wheat down 3.25 cents to $5.2500 per bushel, and soybean down 5.00 cents to $10.3875 per bushel, reflecting a drop of 0.53%, 0.62%, and 0.48% respectively [1] - The trading volume for agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was low, attributed to the acceleration of crop harvesting and ongoing debates regarding corn and soybean yields in the Midwest [1] - The USDA reported that the U.S. sold 110,000 tons of corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2025-2026 marketing year, with export sales for the week ending September 11 showing wheat at 13.9 million bushels, corn at 48.5 million bushels, and soybeans at 33.9 million bushels [1] Group 2 - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts a soybean production of 177.7 million tons for the 2025-2026 marketing year, a 3.7% increase year-on-year, as farmers expand planting areas due to profitable conditions [2] - The 2025-2026 U.S. soybean export estimate has been revised down to 1.39 billion bushels, which is 295 million bushels lower than the USDA's report, with ending stocks expected to exceed 545 million bushels and an average yield of 53 bushels per acre [2] - Due to large supplies and inventory levels, corn and wheat prices are expected to follow the downward trend of soybean prices, with U.S. corn supply projected to be close to 18 billion bushels for the 2025-2026 marketing year [2]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a majority decline in closing prices on September 18, with raw sugar futures down 0.86% at 16.13 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.49%, closing at 66.92 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 2.11%, ending at $7229.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures experienced an increase of 1.36%, closing at 380.75 cents per pound [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The ethylene market is volatile, with supply being tight and prices fluctuating. Investment in related products should be cautious, and attention should be paid to market trends and changes in supply and demand [2] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Price and Volume Data**: There are price and volume data for various products such as polyester, ethylene glycol, and coal, including different regions and time points, like on September 17 - 18, 2025. For example, there are data on prices like -1511.08, 6300.00, 2287.50 etc., and percentage changes such as (6.17), 9.00, 2.00 etc. [1] - **Market Situation**: The market shows a complex situation. The ethylene market is tight, and the polyester market has supply - demand differences. The market is affected by factors such as production inspections, inventory, and trading volume. For instance, the supply of some products is weak, and the market is in a state of shock [2] - **Investment Advice**: Investment in the ethylene - related market should be cautious. Investors need to pay attention to market information, supply - demand relationships, and price fluctuations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure in the domestic and international soybean and rapeseed meal markets continues to be significant, and the prices are under downward pressure. The overall trend of the soybean series market is weak, with the price center expected to decline. The rapeseed meal market is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and options trading, and to close the position of the expanding spread of MRM05 [4][5][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Quotes**: For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, 09, etc. declined, with the 01 contract at 2993 (down 9), the 05 contract at 2765 (down 16), and the 09 contract at 2882 (down 15). The spot basis in different regions showed varying degrees of change. For rapeseed meal, the 05 contract closed at 2357 (down 4), and the 09 contract at 2435 (down 6). The spot basis in Guangdong and Guangxi also changed. The monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends, with the 15 spread of soybean meal increasing by 7 and that of rapeseed meal increasing by 14 [4] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and between soybean meal and sunflower meal showed a downward trend. The oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract also decreased [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The carry - over stock of the old US soybean balance sheet was slightly increased. The new - crop yield had a slight decrease in yield per unit but an increase in planting area, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply. South American old - crop soybeans were in a state of loose supply and demand, with an expected increase of 1539 million tons in soybean production and 821 million tons in crushing volume in major exporting countries. The overall supply pressure of international soybean meal was significant, with an expected increase of 2153.6 million tons in soybean crushing volume in major producing areas throughout the year, while the import volume of major importing countries only increased slightly [5] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal spot market continued to be loose, with high oil - mill operating rates, sufficient market supply, and high inventory. As of September 12, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, the operating rate was 66.35%, the soybean inventory was 7.332 million tons (up 0.21% from last week and 6.35% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons (up 2.48% from last week and down 13.54% year - on - year). The demand for domestic rapeseed meal continued to weaken, the oil - mill operating rate decreased, the supply of rapeseed was relatively low, and the overall supply pressure still existed [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - The Sino - US Madrid negotiations lacked clear macro - guidance, and the market was still worried about the uncertainty of subsequent supply. However, due to China's continued demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the price was not likely to drop significantly in the short term [8] 3.4 Logical Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The main influencing factor of domestic soybean meal was the macro - aspect. The overall soybean production did not change much, and the inventory pressure was still significant. The Brazilian soybean production remained high, and the price was under pressure. The overall supply and demand of domestic soybean meal were relatively loose, and the inventory pressure still existed. Although the near - month futures price was not likely to drop sharply, the price was still under downward pressure [9] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal inventory was relatively low, but the demand was also average. The subsequent import volume was relatively low, and the price lacked obvious fluctuations. The impact of market rumors on the supply side was expected to be limited [9] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - **Arbitrage**: Close the position of the expanding spread of MRM05 [10] - **Options Trading**: Wait and see [10] 3.6 Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans showed different trends for different shipment periods. For example, the crushing profit of the November shipment was - 91.34 (up 18.39 compared to yesterday), and that of the February shipment was - 43.20 (up 3.05 compared to yesterday) [11]