Core Viewpoint - The USDA is set to release the February supply and demand report, which is expected to primarily adjust the demand side for South American soybean production, while U.S. soybean supply data is likely to remain unchanged [1] Group 1: South American Soybean Production - The focus of the upcoming report will be on adjustments to South American soybean production, particularly due to weather conditions affecting Brazil and Argentina [2] - Brazil has experienced excessive rainfall and high temperatures in the south, while Argentina's central region faces drought, impacting soybean growth [4] - As of January 24, Brazil's soybean harvest progress for the 2025/2026 season was at 6.6%, higher than the previous week and last year, but slightly below the five-year average [2] - Multiple consulting firms have raised their estimates for Brazil's soybean production to an average of 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [2] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet - The January report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean exports by 1.46 million tons to 42.86 million tons, but no further adjustments are expected in the February report [3] - The U.S. soybean balance sheet is anticipated to show minimal changes in the upcoming report, as the market awaits further sales data [3] Group 3: Argentina's Weather Issues - Argentina's central soybean-producing region has faced uneven rainfall and drought since December 2025, with 20% of soybean fields experiencing drought conditions [4] - Current estimates for Argentina's soybean production have been lowered by 2 million tons to 47 million tons, raising concerns about potential further reductions [4] - Argentina's soybean production accounts for about 10% of global output, and its export volumes are significantly lower than those of the U.S. and Brazil [4] Group 4: Market Expectations and Forecasts - Analysts expect Brazil's soybean production to exceed 180 million tons, which may limit price increases [8] - The USDA's February report is projected to show global soybean ending stocks at 125.3 million tons, with a range between 121.8 million and 127 million tons [11] - The U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are estimated at 347 million bushels, with a range between 265 million and 375 million bushels [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton supply-demand pattern in the 25/26 season is generally loose, and the domestic cotton production has increased significantly. Although there is a high consumption expectation due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity, the overall upward drive is insufficient. The short-term cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season has entered a definite surplus. Although the short-term trade flow is in a tight balance, the medium and long-term surplus pattern will suppress the sugar price. However, the long - term sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The short and medium - term domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken, and the demand for paper pulp will have marginal incremental growth. However, the overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level [7][8] Summary by Related Content Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract yesterday was 14,610 yuan/ton, a change of -70 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,743 yuan/ton, a change of +5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 16,012 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton [1] - In December, Turkey's cotton imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In the 2025/26 season, Turkey's cumulative cotton imports were 300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. Brazilian cotton was the main import source, accounting for 38%, followed by US cotton at 25% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is loose, US cotton exports have weakened again, and terminal demand is weak. The short - term ICE US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, US cotton is at a low - valuation range with limited further decline space, but the upward drive is not clear [2] - Domestically, the 25/26 season has seen a significant increase in cotton production, and commercial inventories are seasonally rising. Traders' willingness to hold goods is strong, and spot transactions are good. Textile enterprises are stocking up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply - demand is expected to be balanced, but there is a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to limited domestic demand support and the pressure of internal - external price differences [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract yesterday was 5,224 yuan/ton, a change of +14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,300 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,150 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - As of February 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 199 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, the same as the same period last season. The cumulative sugar - cane crushing was 87.029 million tons, an increase of 21.269 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production was 8.0634 million tons, with an average sugar - production rate of 9.27% [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market in the 25/26 season is in a definite surplus. Although the short - term trade flow is in a tight - balance pattern, it will tend to be loose in the short and medium - term, suppressing the sugar - price rebound space. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic due to factors such as the expected decline in Brazil's sugar - production ratio and potential impacts of El Nino on India's precipitation [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the current supply is seasonally growing. The pressure of sugar imports in the fourth quarter is high, but the imports are expected to return to a low level in the off - season. The syrup volume in December has also decreased significantly after the adjustment of the control scope [4] Strategy - Neutral. In the short and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out, and the focus is on the domestic import - related policy changes in 2026 [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract yesterday was 5,254 yuan/ton, a change of -70 yuan/ton (-1.31%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,335 yuan/ton, a change of -40 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, with no change [5] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp changed from stable to falling. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The downstream's pulp - purchasing mentality was rational, and the market transaction atmosphere was light. The prices of some imported pulp grades in various regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The proportion of trade pulp shipped to Europe is expected to increase, and the domestic import pressure may be relieved to some extent [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity expansion of finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry's profits were squeezed. Downstream paper mills' raw - material purchasing willingness was low, and domestic port inventories were at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and white cardboard and household paper will be the main growth points of demand [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement in pulp fundamentals is limited, and the port inventory remains high. The short - term pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level [8]

油料日报 | 2026-02-06 豆一备货收窄，花生购销趋淡 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4382.00元/吨，较前日变化+7.00元/吨，幅度+0.16%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+58，较前日变化-7，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：昨日东北地区大豆行情保持稳定，市场整体呈现平稳运行态势。据贸易商反映，当前市场购销活 跃度趋于下降，产地基层余粮较为有限，交易多围绕现有库存进行消化。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等 蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元 /斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一 等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元 /斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.33元/斤。 昨日豆一期货主力合约价格升高回落。南方大豆主产区购销平稳，现货价格持稳，优质优价特征依然明显，但整 体成交节奏未见明显放量。销区市场近期采购 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soybean meal, due to sufficient supply in the first quarter in China and potential rebound space limited, short - term decline is expected. For rapeseed meal, with improved supply and uncertain trade policies, short - term decline is likely [1][4]. - **Short - term adjustment**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to have short - term adjustments. Palm oil is affected by inventory expectations and market sentiment; soybean oil is impacted by increased US soybean procurement; rapeseed oil is influenced by improved import supply [1]. - **Oscillatory adjustment**: Cotton is in an oscillatory adjustment state. The US cotton market is under pressure, and the domestic cotton market has weak upward drive before the Spring Festival but has strong expectations in the medium - long term [1][13]. - **Pressured operation**: Red dates' spot market is flat, and although high - inventory destocking may drive short - term rebounds, the overall pattern is pressured [1][16]. - **Oscillatory and weak**: For live pigs, in the context of supply - demand balance, near - month contracts are prone to fall, and far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trends but have opportunities for phased long - positions [1][18]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 2731 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. Spot prices show a decline, with the national average price at 3159.43 yuan/ton, down 9.14 yuan or - 0.29% [2]. - **Market Situation**: China plans to increase US soybean procurement, and Argentina's drought continues. The domestic supply in the first quarter is sufficient, and the rebound space may be limited. Attention should be paid to Argentina's rainfall in February [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 2238 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or - 0.40% from the previous day. The national average spot price remains unchanged at 2562.63 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply situation has improved with the entry of Australian seeds into crushing and the purchase of Canadian rapeseeds. However, the stability of Sino - Canadian trade policies needs to be monitored. Import recovery calls for cautious bullish views [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 9042 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan or - 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price is 9080 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or - 0.66% [8]. - **Market Situation**: Canadian rapeseed imports have returned to normal, and palm oil prices fell yesterday. Near the Spring Festival, trading is cautious. The market estimates the end - of - January palm oil inventory in Malaysia to be between 2.89 - 2.91 million tons, with a slight inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the inventory estimate and the US - Iran situation [1][9]. Cotton - **Price Information**: Futures prices of different contracts show a downward trend, such as CF2603 at 14670 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or - 0.54%. The spot price of CCIndex (3218B) is 16012 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.06% [10]. - **Market Situation**: The US cotton market is under pressure from external commodities and a strong US dollar. The domestic new cotton processing is basically completed, raw material inventory is being destocked, and demand is weakening. Before the Spring Festival, the upward drive is weak, but there are strong expectations in the medium - long term [1][13]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: Futures prices of different contracts decline, such as CJ2603 at 8590 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or - 1.66%. Spot prices remain stable [14]. - **Market Situation**: The spot market is flat. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption season, the futures market fluctuates more. High - inventory destocking may drive short - term rebounds, but the overall pattern is pressured [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: Futures prices of different contracts decline, such as Ih2603 at 10995 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan or - 1.39%. The national average slaughter price is 12000 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or - 0.99% [17]. - **Market Situation**: In February, the supply - demand situation is strong, but price rebounds in some areas may not be sustainable. Near - month contracts are prone to fall, and far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trends but have phased opportunities [1][18].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 06 日星期五 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.04%，收于2268 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价小幅下跌。东北地区深加工 | | | | | 企业收购价2171元/吨，较前一日跌1元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2303元/吨，较 | | | | | 前一日跌3元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日南北港口稳定。锦州港15%水二等玉米收购价2 | | | | | 270-2280元/吨，较前一日持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2400元/吨，较前一日持平。 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 3、仓单方面，大商所数据显示截 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 6 日星期周五 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2 月 5 日，有色板块再度大跌，文华指数走弱，植物油板块转跌，但是跌势不大。 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8104 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.44%，日减仓 | | | | | 12674 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8046 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.35%，日增 | | | | | 仓 9525 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9042 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.05%，日减 | | | | | 仓 13432 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 901 ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 2026年02月06日 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，高位波动加剧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆继续收涨，连粕或跟随 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：预计保持震荡走势20260206 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持弱势 | 10 | | 生猪：旺季不旺，预计节后中枢继续下移 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 06 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，高位波动加剧 豆油：区间震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,042 | 涨跌幅 -1.05% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,074 | 涨跌幅 0.35% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: After the bullish factors of increased production are largely realized in February when the Northern Hemisphere starts to end the sugar - crushing season, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the domestic import sugar supply is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space of sugar prices is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [3][4]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates widely at a high level due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market. In the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [6][9]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives up the price of US soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure increases, and on the other hand, the import cost rises. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short term [12][13]. - **Oils and Fats**: Driven by the bio - diesel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate, and the medium - term price of oils and fats is bullish. In the short term, due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market, the price of oils and fats fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then go long [15][17]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is about to realize the seasonal increase, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contracts may show weak fluctuations due to valuation support, while the long - term contracts have positive expectations, but the path to achieve profitability is uncertain. It is advisable to maintain a short - selling strategy [19][20]. - **Pigs**: The large basic supply and the accumulation of live - pig inventories make the spot and near - term expectations pessimistic. The near - term contracts may still be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The long - term contracts may have support after following the downward trend, considering the high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and the expected recovery of consumption demand [22][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5224 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5270 - 5370 yuan/ton, up 0 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 49 from 54 in the previous week, and the sugar quantity decreased to 1.5644 million tons from 1.7826 million tons. StoneX expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. India's sugar production as of January 31, 2026, reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative production in the 2025/26 crushing season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume was 1.57 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,610 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,012 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. The export to China in that week was 8800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. The USDA's January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year. The US production forecast was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production forecast remained at 4.08 million tons, India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's total cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [6][8]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2731 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2238 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day. The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons this season. StoneX's latest forecast for Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is a record - high 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January forecast and a year - on - year increase of 13 million tons. As of January 31, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year and a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the five - year average. The soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, a 3.4 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year and a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week. The sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week [12]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the oils and fats futures price declined. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8104 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 9042 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton or 1.05% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 9144 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan/ton or 1.07% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8670 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9940 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The market's forward - looking forecast for Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from the previous month. The export was 1.42 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory was 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The US Treasury Department issued the latest guidance on bio - fuel tax credits, and the public hearing is scheduled for May. The data released by shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 14.9% and 17.9% respectively month - on - month. From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample inventory of the three major oils and fats decreased slightly by 60,000 tons to 1.89 million tons [15][16]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Most egg prices across the country declined yesterday, with a few remaining stable. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.09 yuan to 3.47 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped 0.2 yuan to 3.1 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.18 yuan to 2.82 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the market digestion was slow, and the traders' cautious sentiment increased. It is expected that most egg prices across the country may decline in the short term, while a few areas may see stable prices [19]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Domestic pig prices mainly declined yesterday, with some areas showing small increases. The average price in Henan increased 0.14 yuan to 12.36 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased 0.23 yuan to 11.54 yuan/kg. The northern pig - farmers still had the sentiment of reducing sales and hoarding, which may support the pig prices to be relatively strong. The supply in the southern market did not change much, and the demand was also average, so there was no condition for price increase for now, and the prices may remain stable [22].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周四，CBOT大豆延续涨势，受大豆乐观需求提振。美国农业部出口数据显示，美豆出口净销售43.69万 吨，创市场年度低位。市场预估增加40-160万吨。其中对中国大陆消失净增23.3万吨。巴西大豆产量或 超过1.8亿吨，限制了涨幅。巴西谷物出口商协会预计巴西2月大豆出口料为1142万吨。国内方面，豆粕 上涨，但涨幅小于外盘。一方面进口成本走高提振国内市场。另一方面，国内供应充足，库存压力加 大。豆粕震荡思路。策略上，短线参与，59反套。 （孔海兰，从业资格号：F3032578；交易咨询资格号：Z0013544） 周四，生猪期货偏弱震荡，主力2605合约日收跌0.43%，报收11685元/吨。卓创数据显示，昨日中国生 猪日度均价11.96元/公斤，环比跌0.04元/公斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价12.66元/公斤，环比涨0.36 元/公斤，四川、广东跌，山东涨，辽宁平。北方养殖端缩量，市场生猪供应收紧，下游收购难度提 升，被迫抬价保量；南方市场养殖端正常出栏，但 ...

2025年深秋，青岛市平度市田庄镇种植大户李洪元看着手机里的赔付款到账信息，脸上露出了欣慰的笑 容。作为青岛廉家粮油专业合作社负责人，他种植花生多年，曾长期被"看天吃饭""丰产不丰收"的问题 困扰。当花生"保险+期货"收入险项目落地，他的忧虑也随之消散。 "现在有这份收入险作保障，我想明年再扩种200亩。"李洪元自信地说。 李洪元的这份自信，源于花生期货与乡村振兴战略深度融合结出的硕果。2021年花生期货上市后，青岛 市西海岸新区便在郑商所的帮助下，开展了山东省规模最大的政策性农业保险——花生"保险+期货"项 目，覆盖海青镇4731户种植户，初步验证了该项目的可行性。 2023—2025年，由郑商所支持，青岛市财政局、农业农村局统筹协调的国内最大的花生收入险县域覆盖 项目落地青岛，银河期货与太平洋保险青岛分公司深入乡镇宣讲，将保障范围扩展至青岛市西海岸新 区、平度市、莱西市和胶州市四个区县的111个镇街。"仅用1个月时间，便能收齐农户的自缴保费部 分，参保热情超出预期。"银河期货青岛营业部总经理庞大为告诉期货日报记者，该项目累计覆盖93036 户农户，不仅破解了传统农业"看天吃饭"的困境，更激发了产业发展活力 ...