Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly shows the price spread data of various agricultural products. 3. Summary according to Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal - The report presents price spreads of soybean meal including 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, with specific price spread values and corresponding time - series data from 06 - 28 to 09 - 16 in different years [3]. 3.2. Rapeseed Meal - It shows 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of rapeseed meal from 2018/19 to 2025/26, with price spread values ranging from - 200 to 1400 and corresponding time - series data [4][5][6]. 3.3. Soybean Oil - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of soybean oil are presented from 2019/20 to 2025/26, with price spread values from - 200 to 1000 and corresponding time - series data [9][10][11]. 3.4. Palm Oil - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of palm oil are shown from 2019/20 to 2025/26, with price spread values from - 400 to 4000 and corresponding time - series data [12][14][23]. 3.5. Rapeseed Oil - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of rapeseed oil are presented from 2019/20 to 2025/26, with price spread values from - 750 to 2500 and corresponding time - series data [13][15]. 3.6. Corn - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of corn are shown from 2019/20 to 2025/26, with price spread values from - 125 to 200 and corresponding time - series data [13][16]. 3.7. Pig - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of pig are presented from 2020/21 to 2025/26, with price spread values from - 5000 to 4000 and corresponding time - series data [13][17]. 3.8. Sugar - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of sugar are shown from 2020/21 to 2025/26, with price spread values from - 200 to 400 and corresponding time - series data [18][19][20]. 3.9. Cotton - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of cotton are presented from 2020/21 to 2022/23, with price spread values up to 1250 and corresponding time - series data [21].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， | | 豆粕 | | 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 应预计暂充足，但一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，现货价格表 | | | | 现抗跌。圣诞节美豆休市期间豆粕反弹。关注美豆出口能否改善及南美天气情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，仓单库存压力有所减轻。但全球丰产、进 | | 菜粕 | | 口多元化及消费淡季弱化看多预期。菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋势为主，菜粕一季度供 | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 应整体偏紧，库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。关注澳籽压榨和进 | | | | 口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 马棕榈油 12月20日最新产量数据环比下降。12月马棕榈油累库的可能性依然存在， | | 棕榈油 | 止跌反弹 | 短线以反弹对待，追多谨慎，注意仓位及操作节奏。昨日公布的前 25 日出口数据 | | ★ | | ...

新疆种植面积预期调减，郑棉期价强势上涨 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14255元/吨，较前一日变动+75元/吨，幅度+0.53%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15086元/吨，较前一日变动+5元/吨，现货基差CF05+831，较前一日变动-70；3128B棉全国均价15279元/吨， 较前一日变动+8元/吨，现货基差CF05+1024，较前一日变动-67。 近期市场资讯，鉴于年底财务因素影响，巴基斯坦棉市交易放缓。部分低等级资源成交价较现行价格低500-1500 卢比/莫恩德。纱厂持续反映经营压力重，因需求疲软，当地棉价持稳约两个月。24日卡拉奇棉花协会（KCA）2025/26 年度现货价格稳定在15500卢比/莫恩德。 农产品日报 | 2025-12-26 策略 中性偏多。下游产能扩张使得国内用棉量有所提升，在进口量预期维持低位的情况下，新年度供需预计不会太宽 松，叠加2026年新疆棉花减种减产预期不断增强，季节性压力之后棉价偏乐观对待。 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘白糖2605合约5269元/吨，较前一日变动+ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Views - For the粕类 market, the current domestic supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with a slight increase in soybean inventory and high bean meal inventory. The 05 contract price moves weakly in line with the US soybean price due to strong South American soybean production expectations. However, the relatively high import cost of US soybeans provides some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and the growth of new - season South American soybeans [2] - In the corn market, farmers are still reluctant to sell, resulting in a slow grain - selling pace. Traders are cautious in purchasing, while deep - processing enterprises'开机 is stable with a slight increase in inventory and improved purchasing willingness. Feed enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases and mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. All - link inventories are gradually rising but still below historical levels. Future focus should be on alternative grain auctions, and the corn spot price is expected to adjust [4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕类 Market 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2760 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+1.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2352 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.34%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 320, down 32 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3030 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 270, down 12; in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 280, down 12. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 + 238, up 12 [1] - **Market Information**: As of December 23, the soybean planting progress in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 75.5%, 8 percentage points higher than a week ago, with 95.2% of sown soybeans rated normal to good and 96% of soybean farmland having sufficient/optimal moisture. The estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 1.77 billion tons, higher than the previous forecast of 1.76 billion tons [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with soybean and bean meal inventories rising slightly. The 05 contract price moves weakly with the US soybean price due to South American production expectations, but the high US soybean import cost provides support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Neutral [3] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2189 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2601 contract was 2484 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.40%) [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C01 + 111, up 12 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS01 + 136, up 10 [3] - **Market Information**: From December 1 - 19, Brazil's corn exports were 4.426 million tons, compared with 4.266 million tons in December 2024. The daily average export volume was 295,039 tons, a 45.2% year - on - year increase. The export value was 970 million US dollars, compared with 910 million US dollars in December 2024. The average export price was 218.8 US dollars/ton, a 2.2% increase from the same period last year [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a slow grain - selling pace. On the demand side, traders' inventory rises slowly and they are cautious in purchasing. Deep - processing enterprises'开机 is stable, with a slight increase in inventory and improved purchasing willingness. Feed enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases and mostly wait and see. All - link inventories are rising but below historical levels. Future focus should be on alternative grain auctions, and the corn spot price is expected to adjust [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy - Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the domestic customs meeting rumors, the soybean meal futures market showed strength today. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic relevant policy dynamics. With the expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans, the South American premium is expected to face selling pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Spot and Basis Data - On December 25th, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot contracts in different regions (Dalian, Tianjin, etc.) decreased by 32 compared to the previous period. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 108. The M1 - 5 spread was 315 with an increase of 5 [4] Spread and Price Difference Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 84 with an increase of 13. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the factory was 300, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 547 with a decrease of 6 [5] Supply - related Data - According to CONAB, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1.776 billion tons. As of December 5th, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3%. As of December 3rd, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 4.7%. There are no obvious short - term weather problems. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to seasonally reduce inventory. The rumor of a 25 - day customs clearance delay has increased concerns about the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year in China. Domestic imported soybeans have started to be auctioned with a high premium [7] Demand - related Data - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory level in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month period. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were normal, and the提货 performance was good [8] Inventory - related Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history. The reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure of spot supply is still large. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced more rapidly from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises increased this week [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2740 - 2800. The domestic soybean meal is influenced by multiple factors, with a neutral view in the short - term and a tendency to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. - The soybean A2605 is predicted to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180. Domestic soybeans are affected by various factors such as US - China trade and import volumes, with a neutral view in the short - term [10][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2605 fluctuates in the 2740 - 2800 range. Influenced by factors like US - China trade and South American weather, it has a neutral outlook. The basis is positive, but inventory, the position of the price relative to the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are bearish. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9]. - The soybean A2605 fluctuates between 4080 - 4180. Affected by US - China trade and import volumes, it has a neutral view. The basis is neutral, while inventory, the price position relative to the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are bearish [11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on US - China tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are uncertainties in the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather. The domestic import soybean arrival volume decreased in December, with high soybean inventory in oil mills. The demand for soybean meal rebounded at a low level in December, and soybean meal is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors For Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement on US - China trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean production areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans remained high in December; South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. For Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - The global soybean supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. from 2015 - 2024 [32]. - The domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, import volume, etc. from 2015 - 2024 [33]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions of soybean meal decreased, and funds flowed out. The main short positions of soybeans increased, and funds flowed in [9][11]. Other Data and Information - The trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from December 17 - 25, 2025 are presented, along with the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [17]. - The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from December 18 - 25, 2025 are provided [19]. - The warehouse receipt statistics of soybeans and soybean meal from December 16 - 25, 2025 are given [21]. - The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), and Argentina (2024/25, 2025/26) are detailed [34][35][39][41][42][43]. - The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May - December 2025 are presented, including planting area, yield, production, etc. [44]. - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 - 2025 is shown, with a slight increase in December 2025 compared to the same period [47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased to a high level, and the demand for stockpiling increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained relatively high, and the soybean meal production in October increased year - on - year [48][50][52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated downward following US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig farming profit fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：受圣诞节假期影响，CBOT 市场休市，国际市场指引暂时缺位。国内市场，贸易商多持观 望态度，密切关注油厂大规模停机计划，普遍延续滚动拿货策略以规避库存风险。当前美豆上涨部分 抵消了人民币升值对进口成本的压制，成本驱动因素趋于多元，豆粕期价在底部区间呈现反复震荡格 局。短期来看，汇率波动、外盘节奏及国内供需节奏交织影响，市场缺乏单边趋势动力。豆粕期价仍 将维持震荡格局。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-26 市场担忧供应，豆粕盘面近月领涨 油脂：昨日震荡偏强，关注上方技术阻力 蛋白粕：市场担忧供应，盘面近月领涨 玉米/淀粉：缺乏驱动，市场僵持 生猪：年底供需博弈，猪价震荡 天然橡胶：胶价继续向上突破，短期或维持偏强 合成橡胶：消息面刺激有限，盘面高位回落 棉花：政策预期部分落地，棉价延续攀升 白糖：阶段性触底后，糖价反弹 纸浆：持续横盘震荡，现货维持偏弱 双胶纸：纸企相继发布涨价函，双胶底部存支撑 原木：底部存在支撑，原木低位区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 风险因素：进口政策，南美天气，贸易战，宏观。 农业团队 【异动品种】 蛋白粕观点：市场担忧供应，盘面近月领涨 逻辑：国际方面，海外圣诞节，美豆休市。USDA数据显示，美豆11月压榨 量环比走低，对华出口增长缓慢。巴西大豆播种近尾声，阿根廷大豆播种 过半。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所（BAGE）称，截至12月17日，阿根廷 2025/26年度大豆播种完成67.3%，高于一周前的58.6%。南美大豆产量前 景乐观，未来15天降水略多，温度略低。 ...

转自：期货日报 2025年豆系市场走势主要受国内大豆到港节奏、美豆产区天气及出口预期变化等因素影响。当前，美豆 因出口担忧加剧，加之南美丰产预期强化，上行动能已显不足。在此背景下，国内豆粕的进口成本支撑 随之弱化，同时供应压力依然存在，预计价格将延续弱势运行态势。 国际大豆供应宽松 国际大豆市场供应延续宽松格局。截至12月末，美豆收割工作基本完成，大豆上市压力持续释放，美豆 出口需求支撑不足。巴西大豆播种进度超九成，尽管前期部分产区遭遇干旱，但大豆总体长势良好，丰 产压力犹存。阿根廷大豆播种进度加快，虽然新作种植面积略有下调，但整体供应充足，全球大豆丰产 格局延续。 市场关注点逐步转向南美天气。世界气象组织认为，未来三个月发生弱拉尼娜现象的概率为55%。其 中，巴西南部产区可能面临干旱威胁，阿根廷大豆整个关键生长期则与拉尼娜活跃期重合，减产风险相 对较大。尽管弱拉尼娜现象本身难以扭转全球大豆供过于求的格局，但这将成为影响产量预期和市场情 绪的关键因素。 中美贸易关系进入新阶段。后续中国采购美豆的节奏与规模，将成为影响美豆出口及贸易流向的重要因 素。 2025年中国大豆进口量预计突破 1.1亿吨，创历史新高，进 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，玉米延续震荡。玉米主力 2603 合约阳线收盘，2603 期价收十字星，近远 月合约期价呈现联动调整表现。目前东北玉米购销活跃度一般，产地贸易商随行 出货，但上货量较为有限，目前价格下成交情况并不理想，产区货源发北港暂无 | 下跌 | | | 利润。华北地区玉米价格延续前两天稳定的局面。山东深加工企业早间剩余车辆 | | | | 继续减少，但全天卸车量尚可，能够满足大部分企业生产需求，加上近期深加工 | | | | 企业玉米库存处于逐渐累库的状态，较前期库存水平整体有所增加，因此虽然早 | | | 玉米 | 间到货车辆不多，但企业玉米收购价格大部分维持稳定，少数企业价格窄幅调整。 | | | | 基层售粮节奏缓慢进行，基层粮点普遍反应售粮量有限，市场购销相对清淡，依 | | | | 然以潮粮购销为主。销区港口贸易商报价基本无调整，下游按需补库，终端需求 | | | | 维持疲软。产区购销僵持，上量偏慢，销区报价跟随产区稳定为主。技术上，玉 | | | | 米 3 ...