| 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3834.89 | -2.45% | -96.16 | | 深证成指 | 12538.07 | -3.41% | -442.75 | | 沪深 300 | 4453.61 | -2.44% | -111.34 | | 创业板 | 2920.08 | -4.02% | -122.26 | | 科创 50 | 1285.83 | -3.19% | -42.36 | | 北证 50 | 1377.39 | -4.71% | -68.15 | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 沪指失守 3900 点 市场表现： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -0.32% | 综合 | -5.50% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan emphasizes a positive outlook for the Chinese market despite recent volatility, suggesting that the market is entering a favorable phase for investment as it approaches a critical window of policy and liquidity support from December to February [1][2]. Market Analysis - The Chinese stock market has experienced significant declines, with the ChiNext index down 12%, the STAR 50 index nearly 20%, and the Hang Seng Tech index down 22%, indicating that the market has already released much of its risk [1]. - The report highlights that the current pessimism among investors is driven by year-end profit protection, reduced positions, and external factors such as the cooling of Fed rate cut expectations and increased volatility in U.S. markets [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Guotai Junan recommends increasing exposure to the Chinese market, particularly in technology, financial services, and consumer sectors, as the market is expected to stabilize and embark on a rally [1][3]. - Specific sectors to focus on include: - **Technology**: Growth in AI applications and infrastructure, with recommendations for internet, media, computing, and manufacturing sectors [3]. - **Financial Services**: Anticipated reforms in the capital market and early bank dividends, with a focus on brokerage and insurance stocks [3]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in low-priced, low-inventory consumer stocks, particularly in food, beverages, and tourism sectors, as macroeconomic risks decrease [3]. Future Outlook - The Chinese capital market is positioned for significant growth, with expectations of double-digit profit growth in non-financial sectors by 2026, driven by improved cash flows and reduced debt [2]. - The report suggests that the historical "guaranteed return" mindset is shifting, leading to increased asset management demand and a potential influx of new capital into the market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has entered a critical zone after panic selling, presenting a buying opportunity as the period from December to February is expected to see a convergence of policies, liquidity, and fundamentals [1][2]. Market Analysis - The recent panic selling has significantly released market risks, with the Chinese stock market now in a favorable position for recovery. The Shanghai Composite Index has seen a 5% pullback, while the ChiNext Index has dropped 12%, the STAR Market 20%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index 22%, indicating that the adjustment period aligns with previous bull market corrections [2][3]. - The upcoming economic work conference is anticipated to set new expectations for the market, especially given the current economic slowdown and the importance of growth rates for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. - The merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) signifies an acceleration in capital market reforms, with the rapid approval of 16 hard-tech ETFs reflecting regulatory commitment to stabilize the market [2][3]. Capital Market Outlook - The Chinese capital market is in a significant growth cycle, with substantial upward potential for stock indices. The factors that previously caused valuation discounts have dissipated, leading to a more stable outlook for the Chinese economy and capital markets [3]. - The demand for asset management is expected to surge, with projections indicating that the scale of new market entrants in 2026 may exceed current consensus estimates [3]. Investment Strategy - The focus for the upcoming cross-year market is on technology, financial services, and consumer sectors. Key recommendations include: 1. **Technology Growth**: Increased application of AI and a shortage of domestic computing infrastructure, with recommendations for investments in Hong Kong internet/media/computer sectors and manufacturing [4]. 2. **Financial Sector**: Anticipated reforms in capital markets are expected to boost risk appetite, with recommendations for brokerage and insurance stocks [4]. 3. **Consumer Sector**: After three years of adjustment, consumer stocks are positioned for structural opportunities, particularly in food, beverage, agriculture, and tourism sectors [4]. Thematic Recommendations - Focus on AI applications, robotics, domestic consumption, and infrastructure investments in Xinjiang, particularly in clean energy and power grid sectors [4].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "three-phase overlap" characterized by a mid-bull market consolidation period, a critical phase for verifying economic conditions, and a performance policy gap, leading to increased market volatility and year-end profit-taking by investors [1][2]. Market Environment - Recent overseas disturbances have affected market liquidity expectations, with fluctuating predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions for December [1][3]. - The strong performance of Nvidia's earnings report has been overshadowed by concerns over the sustainability of AI spending, impacting investor sentiment in the A-share market [1][4]. Investment Strategy - The long-term slow bull market trend remains unchanged, while short-term strategies should focus on opportunistic positioning, particularly in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December [1][5]. - Investors are advised to monitor support levels at the 60-day and half-year moving averages, as well as market volume conditions during potential adjustments [1][5]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include banking, oil and petrochemicals, steel, agriculture, lithium batteries, and new materials, reflecting areas of potential growth and stability [1][5].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "three-phase overlap," characterized by a mid-bull market consolidation period, a critical phase for verifying economic conditions, and a performance policy gap, leading to increased market volatility and year-end profit-taking by investors [1] Market Environment - Recent overseas disturbances have affected the market, with fluctuating expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December impacting global liquidity [1] - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations but caused significant stock price volatility, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, which has affected investor sentiment in the A-share market [1] Long-term Outlook - The long-term slow bull market structure remains unchanged, suggesting a focus on strategic positioning in the short term while awaiting the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December [1] Investment Strategy - During the interim period, if sufficient market adjustments occur, there may be opportunities for increased positions and accumulation [1] - Key support levels to monitor include the 60-day moving average and the half-year moving average, along with market volume conditions [1] Sector Focus - Industries to pay attention to include banking, oil and petrochemicals, steel, agriculture, animal husbandry, lithium batteries, and new materials [1]

Content: --------- <doc id='1'>金融工程日报 A 股单边下行，AI 应用逆势走强、锂电池产业链全线下挫</doc> <doc id='2'>核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20251121 市场全线下跌，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板 块指数中上证综指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。行业 指数全线下跌，家电、传媒、食品饮料、银行、农林牧渔行业表现较好，综 合、有色金属、基础化工、通信、电子行业表现较差。中船系、水产、小红 书平台、拼多多合作商、短剧游戏等概念表现较好，锂矿、锂电正极、锂电 隔膜、盐湖提锂、锂电电解液等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251121 收盘时有 33 只股票涨停，有 107 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日表现低迷，赚钱效应较弱，高开低走，收盘收益为-0.55%，昨日 跌停股票今日收盘收益为-5.58%。今日封板率 61%，较前日提升 10%，连板 率 24%，较前日下降 0%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251120 两融余额为 24917 亿元，其中融资余额 24744 亿元，融券余额 173 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 10.1%。</doc> <doc id='3'>折溢价：20251120 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是创科技 ETF，ETF 折价较多的是芯 片 ETF 景顺。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 20 亿元，20251120 当 日大宗交易成交金额为 19 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 6.36%，当日折价率 为 7.71%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 股指期货主 力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 0.48%、3.39%、10.86%、13.39%，当日上 证 50 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 4.00%，处于近一年来 29%分位点，当 日沪深 300 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 7.08%，处于近一年来 25%分位 点；当日中证 500 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 8.69%，处于近一年来 69% 分位点；当日中证 1000 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 8.76%，处于近一年 来 80%分位点。</doc> <doc id='4'>机构关注与龙虎榜：近一周内调研机构较多的股票是九号公司-WD、蓝思科 技、泰恩康、中航重机、沃尔德、超颖电子、宏昌科技、斯菱股份等，九号 公司-WD 被 179 家机构调研。20251121 披露龙虎榜数据中，机构专用席位净 流入前十的股票是天华新能、易点天下、安妮股份、久其软件、榕基软件、 古麒绒材、江龙船艇、荃银高科、华瓷股份、神农种业等，机构专用席位净 流出前十的股票是西藏城投、视觉中国、浪潮软件、德力佳、禾信仪器、中 水渔业、梦天家居、亚通精工、南侨食品、北方长龙等。陆股通净流入前十 的股票是天华新能、江龙船艇、英利汽车、国风新材、久其软件、久之洋、 荃银高科、西藏城投、南侨食品等，陆股通净流出前十的股票是华胜天成、 视觉中国、方大炭素、诺德股份、浪潮软件、易点天下、禾信仪器等。 风险提示：市场环境变动风险；本报告基于历史客观数据统计，不构成投资 建议。</doc> <doc id='5'> | 金融工程·数量化投资 | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：张欣慰 | 联系人：李子靖 | | 021-60933159 | 021-60875177 | 021-60933159 021-60875177 zhangxinwei1@guosen.com.cn lizijing1@guosen.com.cn S0980520060001 相关研究报告 《金融工程日报-A 股高开低走，封板率创近一个月新低》 —— 2025-11-20 《金融工程日报-沪指震荡收红，水产股集体大涨、黄金股午后 拉升》 ——2025-11-19 《金融工程日报-沪指震荡走低，锂电产业链回调、互联网电商 概念逆势走强》 ——2025-11-18 《金融工程日报-沪指震荡下跌，锂矿题材逆势爆发》 —— 2025-11-17 《金融工程日报-沪指冲高回落，算力、半导体产业链领跌》 — —2025-11-14</doc> <doc id='6'>市场表现 宽基与风格指数表现 今日(20251121，下同) 市场全线下跌，规模指数中，上证 50 指数表现较好，上 证 50 指数下跌 1.74%，沪深 300 指数下跌 2.44%，中证 500 指数下跌 3.46%，中 证 1000 指数下跌 3.72%，中证 2000 指数下跌 3.99%。 板块指数中，上证综指表现较好，上证综指下跌 2.45%，深证综指下跌 3.43%，中 小 100 指数下跌 3.25%，创业板指下跌 4.02%，科创 50 指数下跌 3.19%，科创 100 指数下跌 4.04%，北证 50 指数下跌 4.71%。 风格指数中，沪深 300 价值指数表现较好，沪深 300 价值指数下跌 1.70%，沪深 300 成长指数下跌 2.47%，中证 500 价值指数下跌 3.30%，中证 500 成长指数下跌 3.16%。主要宽基、板块及风格指数今日表现如下图所示。</doc> <doc id='7'>图1：今日宽基、板块与风格指数表现 行业指数表现 今日行业指数全线下跌，家电、传媒、食品饮料、银行、农林牧渔行业表现较好， 收益分别为-0.27%、-0.50%、-0.89%、-1.00%、-1.58%，综合、有色金属、基础 化工、通信、电子行业表现较差，收益分别为-5.41%、-5.30%、-5.26%、-4.59%、 -4.41%，中信一级行业指数今日表现如下图所示。</doc> <doc id='8'>资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理</doc> <doc id='9'>图2：今日中信一级行业指数表现 概念主题表现 今日中船系、水产、小红书平台、拼多多合作商、短剧游戏等概念表现较好，收 益分别为 3.51%、0.65%、0.47%、0.42%、0.22%，锂矿、锂电正极、锂电隔膜、 盐湖提锂、锂电电解液等概念表现较差，收益分别为-9.67%、-8.66%、-8.18%、 -8.08%、-7.99%，今日收益较高与较低的前十个概念指数表现如下图所示。</doc> <doc id='10'>资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理</doc> <doc id='11'>图3：今日收益较高与较低的前十个概念指数 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理</doc> <doc id='12'>市场情绪 日内涨跌停家数 我们统计上市满 3 个月以上的股票在今日盘中的实时涨跌停家数情况。今日盘中 最高有 33 只股票

Core Viewpoint - The Biotech Index (970038) experienced a decline of 2.26% on November 21, closing at 2111.48 points, with a total trading volume of 19.114 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.64% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - On the day, only one constituent stock, Prolo Pharmaceutical, saw an increase of 1.41%, while 49 stocks declined, with Iwu Biological leading the drop at 5.0% [1] - The top ten constituent stocks of the Biotech Index are primarily in the biopharmaceutical sector, with significant weightings for companies like Mindray Medical (12.58%) and Changchun High-tech (4.87%) [1] Group 2: Market Capitalization and Price Movements - The total market capitalization of the top ten stocks ranges from 2365.59 billion yuan for Mindray Medical to 285.91 billion yuan for Lepu Medical, indicating a diverse range of company sizes within the index [1] - Price movements for the top stocks include declines for major players such as Mindray Medical (-1.88%) and Changchun High-tech (-2.73%) [1] Group 3: Capital Flow - The Biotech Index constituents saw a net outflow of 1.929 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.724 billion yuan [3] - Notable capital flows include Peak High-Tech with a net inflow of 22.415 million yuan from institutional investors, while other stocks like Jiayuan Pharmaceutical experienced significant outflows [3]

根据A股概念涨跌幅与所对应的股票池综合分析，涨幅靠前的三个概念板块分别为：中船系、Sora概念 （文生视频）与快手概念。排名前10位的概念板块相关数据见下表： | 概念名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | 深得成分股占比(%) | 上涨成分股占比(%) | 下跌成分股占比(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中船系 | 3.24 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 40.0 | | Sora概念(文生视频) | 0.31 | 4.88 | 39.02 | 58.54 | | 快手概念 | -0.43 | 8.33 | 35.42 | 64.58 | | 赛马概念 | -0.49 | 16.67 | 16.67 | 66.67 | | 转基因 | -0.62 | 0.0 | 26.32 | 73.68 | | 小红书概念 | -0.66 | 5.66 | 37.74 | 62.26 | | 华为盘古 | -0.77 | 3.45 | 27.59 | 72.41 | | 短刷游戏 | -0.84 | 3.08 | 24.62 | 73.85 | | 大豆 | -0.97 | 0.0 | ...

Market Overview - On November 21, the A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.02% [1][2]. Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain led the decline, with lithium mining stocks experiencing a wave of limit-downs. Other sectors such as computing hardware, semiconductor, consumer electronics, photovoltaic, and fintech also saw significant drops [2][4]. - Conversely, the military industry sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Pinggao Group, Longxi Co., and TeFa Information hitting the daily limit, while JiuZhiYang and Jianglong Shipbuilding rose over 10% [2][3]. Stock Movements - Notable gainers included: - Pinggao Group: +20.00% at 49.02 - JiuZhiYang: +15.63% at 48.60 - Jianglong Shipbuilding: +14.50% at 22.42 - TeFa Information: +10.00% at 10.45 - Longxi Co.: +10.00% at 25.20 [3]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion, an increase of 257.5 billion compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 5,100 stocks declining [4]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in sectors such as media, agriculture, and shipbuilding, while outflows were noted in non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and electronics. Specific stocks with net inflows included Kaimete Gas and Vision China, while Industrial Fulian and Shenghong Technology faced significant outflows [7]. Institutional Insights - Qianhai JuZhen Capital indicated that the market is expected to continue its volatile adjustment, but the medium to long-term positive trend remains intact, supported by funding, policy, and fundamentals [8]. - CITIC Securities anticipates a new upward cycle for the securities industry, aligning with the core directive of enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of the capital market [8]. - Zhongyuan Securities predicts a steady upward trend in the short term, advising investors to maintain reasonable positions and avoid chasing highs or selling lows [8].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant adjustment with all three major indices declining, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.88% to 3857.24 points, the Shenzhen Component dropped by 2.72%, and the ChiNext Index plummeted by 3.18% [1] - The Hong Kong market also weakened, with the Hang Seng Index down by 2.21% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 3.32%, reflecting a global decline in risk appetite as the year-end approaches [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the decline with a drop of 4.77%, while steel, basic chemicals, power equipment, and telecommunications sectors all fell by over 3.5%, indicating profit-taking behavior from investors in previously high-performing sectors [1] - Defensive sectors such as agriculture, home appliances, and food and beverage showed resilience, with declines not exceeding 0.6%, attracting funds seeking safety [1] Notable Highlights - Despite the overall market downturn, the China Shipbuilding Industry Index surged by 4.7%, driven by policy and funding support, particularly in the defense and high-end manufacturing sectors [2] - The recent adjustment in the market correlates with a significant drop in U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq and S&P 500, influenced by concerns over AI valuation bubbles, cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and technical selling pressure [2] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a phase of "structural differentiation and volatile consolidation," with a noticeable decline in the willingness to invest due to external pressures from U.S. market dynamics [3] - There is a shift in investment style towards balanced and defensive strategies, moving away from growth sectors, although technology sectors representing new productive forces remain a long-term focus [3] - The current market decline is viewed as a test of patience for investors, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a focus on value amidst short-term volatility [3]