报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好， 预计单产为每公顷 2172 公斤（每亩 144.8 公斤），与去年持平。棉花总产 量预计为 625 万吨，比去年增加 1.4%。受美国过度征收关税的影响，棉花 消费预期偏弱，但未来仍存在一定的不确定性。预计新年度的棉花消费量为 740 万吨，较去年小幅减少 20 万吨，进口量也下调至 140 万吨，减少 10 万吨。短期观望。 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | -- ...

研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 6 月 5 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | | | | 107 . | | | 而大大 . | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Stable Enterprises, Secure Agriculture" conference focused on risk management in the cotton industry, highlighting the importance of financial tools in supporting the high-quality development of the sector [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference was co-hosted by Xinjiang Guannong Co., Ltd. and Huatai Futures, bringing together representatives from the cotton industry and financial experts to discuss market conditions and risk management strategies [1][2]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) reported that the cotton futures market has seen significant liquidity and participation, with a long-term open interest of around 4 million tons [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Guannong Co. emphasized its role as a key player in agricultural industrialization, actively promoting market participation among cotton enterprises to enhance their risk management capabilities [2]. - Huatai Futures expressed its commitment to providing integrated financial solutions for the cotton industry, aiming to build a collaborative ecosystem for industry and finance [2]. Group 3: Expert Contributions - Industry experts provided insights on market trends, with Huatai Futures analysts discussing macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics affecting cotton prices [3]. - The use of satellite remote sensing technology for monitoring global cotton production areas was presented, showcasing its potential to help businesses anticipate weather impacts on yield and quality [3]. - Practical case studies on the application of options in the cotton industry were shared, highlighting their role in risk management and how companies can tailor strategies to their specific needs [3]. Group 4: Future Directions - The successful hosting of the conference established a platform for ongoing communication between cotton enterprises and financial institutions, enhancing understanding of risk management tools [4]. - The organizers plan to continue facilitating exchange activities under the guidance of the ZCE to promote high-quality development in the cotton industry [4].

文字早评 2025/06/03 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.47%，创指-0.96%，科创 50-0.94%，北证 50-0.51%，上证 50-0.45%，沪深 300-0.48%， 中证 500-0.85%，中证 1000-1.03%，中证 2000-1.75%，万得微盘-1.16%。两市合计成交 11392 亿，较上 一日-462 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、美方称中方违反中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识，中国商务部新闻发言人：中方坚决拒绝无理指责。 2、中国 5 月官方制造业 PMI 回升至 49.5，符合预期。 3、工信部：加大汽车行业"内卷式"竞争整治力度。中汽协：无序"价格战"加剧恶性竞争，挤压企 业利润空间，影响产品质量和售后服务保障。 4、特朗普宣布自周三起上调钢铝关税一倍至 50%。欧盟：表示遗憾，准备反击美国。 资金面：融资额-11.29 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+6.00bp 至 1.4710%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.23bp 至 3.0414%，十年期国债利率-1.90bp 至 1.6762%，信用利差+0.67bp 至 137bp；美国 10 ...

光期研究 见微知著 棉 花 策 略 月 报 2 0 2 5 年 0 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：基本面驱动有限，区间略偏弱运行为主 库存端：棉花商业库存环比下降，目前位于近年来同期低位水平，纺企原材料库存持稳，织厂原料库存储备下降，产成品库存累积。 p 2 棉花：基本面驱动有限，区间略偏弱运行为主 总 结 供应端：2025/26年度全球棉花产量预计变化有限，巴西棉花产量再创历史新高，美国棉花产量预计同比持平，中国棉花继续丰产概率较大。 1、USDA5月报预计2025/26年度全球棉花产量为2565.1万吨，同比下降71万吨，降幅为2.7%。2、USDA5月报预计2025/26年度中国棉花产量为631.4万吨，同比下降65.3 万吨，降幅为9.4%，市场认为USDA过于低估2025/26年度中国棉花产量预计值，最终产量或同比基本持平。3、2025/26年度巴西棉花产量预估为397.4万吨，同比增加 7.4%；美国棉花产量预计值为315.7万吨，同比增加0.6%。4、USDA5月报预计2025/26年 ...

Group 1 - The event "Stable Enterprises and Safe Agriculture - Futures Services for the Cotton Industry" was successfully held in Xinjiang, focusing on risk management strategies in the global cotton market [1] - The conference gathered macroeconomic experts, industry authorities, risk management institutions, and enterprise representatives to discuss practical solutions for the cotton industry [1] - A total of 69 cotton-related enterprises and 87 representatives recognized the event's contributions to risk management [1] Group 2 - Professor He Wenbin from Xinjiang Finance University highlighted three long-term trends affecting the global economy: geopolitical fragmentation, technological transformation, and the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity [3] - China is transitioning from a real estate-driven economy to one focused on technological innovation, with significant growth in trade surplus and high-tech exports [3] - He Wenbin predicts continued policy support for domestic demand through monetary easing and regulatory coordination, while also implementing proactive fiscal policies to counter external challenges [3] Group 3 - Sun Gang, Deputy General Manager of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Cotton and Hemp Co., emphasized the importance of hedging as a common tool for managing price volatility in the cotton market [5] - He proposed flexible use of options, such as "buying put insurance strategies" to lock in profits during price declines and "covered call strategies" to enhance returns [5] - Sun Gang stressed the need for enterprises to follow the "four strong" principles: strong logic, strong systems, strong review, and strong iteration to build a dynamic risk management system [5] Group 4 - Researcher Li Shuaige from Rongda Futures reported that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to grow by 2.93% year-on-year by 2025, with northern and southern Xinjiang increasing by 3.68% and 2.39%, respectively [7] - Favorable climate conditions have improved seedling emergence rates and height indicators, with an estimated total cotton production in Xinjiang for this year ranging from 6.75 million to 6.95 million tons [7] - This data provides essential reference for cotton-related enterprises to anticipate the new year's supply-demand dynamics and supports the application of futures tools [7] Group 5 - Wang Sijia, Assistant General Manager of Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry's U.S. branch, analyzed the cotton market fundamentals, indicating a projected cotton production of 6.97 million tons in China for the 2024/2025 season, an increase of 1.02 million tons year-on-year [9] - However, consumption is expected to decrease by 400,000 tons, leading to a rise in the inventory-to-sales ratio to 101.4%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The meeting served as a platform for cotton enterprises to exchange insights on macroeconomic assessments, supply-demand data, and risk management tools, addressing challenges posed by global trade restructuring and price volatility [9]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 棉花：上涨动能不足 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 | 元/吨 | 13,275 | -0.34% | - | - | | | CY2507 | 元/吨 | 19,525 | -0.10% | - | - | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 66.18 | 1.67% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 203,391 | -60,819 | 725,116 | -3,567 | | | CY2507 | 手 | 6,105 | -1,999 | 5,086 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 11 ...

| 因素 | 陛盾 | 逻辑观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、国家统计局公布数据显示，4月份，我国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长3%。较3月份加快0.4个百分点，以浅备制造业、高技术制 | | 宏观&行业 | 中性 | 造业为代表的新动能行业利润增长较快,而纺织服装行业4月累计利润同比下滑 15.4%。 | | | 偏空 | 2、近日，美国联邦法院裁定暂停特朗普关税政策，而后特朗普表示将上诉，关税政策暂时恢复，由于关税措施反复变化、难以为棉 | | | | 纺织市场提供稳定的交易环境，业者暂保持谨慎观望心态。 | | | | 1、国际： 截至5月25日当周，美国棉花种植率为52%，前一周为40%，去年同期为57%，五年均值为56%；棉花现盛率为3%，上年同 | | | | 期为4%。五年均值为4%。美国土壤摘情受降雨继续好转利空美国棉布。巴西方面。2024/25年度巴西棉花产量预估为390.48万吨,同比 | | | | 增加5.5%,USDA的预估值更为乐观,高出10-15万吨,近期开始逐步收获。 | | 供应 | 偏空 | 2、国内：全疆棉苗开始逐步现蕾，新棉长势良好、三方调 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 5 月 30 日 每日报告 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉窄幅震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 14578 元/吨，较 上一交易日涨 6 元/吨。202 ...

| | | | The Press of the control of the program and the first of the | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3809.2 | -0.57% | -096% | 2.50% | -1.28% | -2.85% | | | 上证50期货 | 2668.6 | -01-94 | -0.91% | 2.28% | 0.10% | -0.35% | | | 中证500期货 | 5578 | -0.304 | 0.294 | 1.47% | -4.15% | -2.02% | | | 中证1000期货 | 5915 | -0.17% | 0.734 | 1.96% | -2.22% | 1.14% | | 国债 | 2年期国债期货 | 102.41 | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.21% | -0.01% | -0.55% ...