Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The spot cotton price index has increased, but the downstream cotton yarn and cotton fabric markets are weak, and spinning mill profits have deteriorated. The开机 rate of local weaving factories in Xinjiang has increased after the festival, but the overall rate remains low. [7] - Affected by the Middle - East conflict, international agricultural products have risen. The signing and shipment of US cotton are in good progress, and the USDA report has adjusted relevant data favorably. In the domestic market, new cotton production is expected to increase steadily, and there is a risk of high - temperature damage to cotton. The downstream industry is weak, and short - term fundamentals have limited driving force. Zhengzhou cotton is in a narrow - range shock adjustment, and macro changes should be monitored. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis quotes for cotton sales in different regions vary. The cotton yarn market has slightly better but still weak transactions, with prices difficult to rise. The cotton fabric market is dull, and prices are stable and weak. [7] - **Analysis of Market Conditions**: Overseas, the increase in crude oil has driven up agricultural products. The signing and shipment of US cotton is good, and the USDA report has positive adjustments. In the domestic market, new cotton production is expected to increase, but there is a risk of high - temperature damage. The downstream industry is weak, and short - term fundamentals have limited driving force. [8] 2. Industry News - As of the week of June 8, the US cotton planting progress was 76%, the budding rate was 12%, and the good - quality rate was 49%. As of June 7, 2025, the Brazilian cotton harvest progress was 1.4%. [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange - rate data. [18][19][21][26]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 调研报告 2025 年 6 月 16 日 【银河调研】棉花北疆种植及库存情况调研（一） 第一部分 调研背景 2025/26 年度棉花种植面积继续增加，新年度新疆棉产量如何变化？目前 新疆纺纱产能已经接近 3000 万锭，而目前新疆纺纱产能仍在继续扩大，在目 前这个国际贸易关系逐渐恶化的环境下新疆的纺织企业经营情况如何？此 外，随着近期新疆棉出库速度加快，市场担忧今年在新棉上市前的青黄不接 时期棉花供应可能会偏紧，新疆棉的真实库存情况如何？带着这些问题我们 对北疆地区的轧花厂、纺织企业以及监管库进行了调研。 第二部分 调研路线 乌鲁木齐市—五家渠—石河子—奎屯—精河 第三部分 调研纪要 某轧花厂 A 企业介绍：该企业有一个自有轧花厂，并有 20 多亩自有种植棉田，今年棉花 涨势尚可，目前棉苗高 30-40cm，预计 7、8 月份准备打顶。 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 :liuqiannan_qh@ch inastock.com.cn 1 / 3 棉花种植情况：据了解，今年北疆天气情况尚可，按照目前情况来看棉花生长 情况尚可，当地棉花种植面积 ...

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: Cotton Weekly Report: Fast De - stocking, Cotton Prices Slightly Bullish in Fluctuation [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures practice certificate number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting practice certificate number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is influenced by both macro - factors and fundamentals. Considering potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the US cotton price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation. The Zhengzhou cotton price also has the potential to be slightly bullish in fluctuation if the current de - stocking speed is maintained [7][14][23] Group 3: International Market Analysis US Cotton Market - The US cotton market is mainly affected by macro - factors. With potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation [7] - As of June 8, the planting rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US was 76%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 4 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The squaring rate was 12%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and the same as the five - year average. The good - to - excellent rate was 49%, 7 percentage points lower than last year and 1 percentage point lower than the five - year average [7] - As of the week ending June 5, the weekly signing volume of 2024/25 US upland cotton was 1.36 million tons, a 45% week - on - week decrease and a 51% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 0.82 million tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2024/25 US upland cotton was 5.36 million tons, a 25% week - on - week decrease and a 19% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [7] - As of June 6, the number of un - priced contracts of the ON - CALL 2507 contract held by sellers decreased by 1511 to 12276, a decrease of 30,000 tons from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of the 24/25 annual sellers decreased by 1511 to 12276, equivalent to 280,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 51692, equivalent to 1.17 million tons, an increase of 152 from last week [7] Global Cotton Situation - According to the latest USDA June data, the global cotton production in 25/26 was revised down by 178,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, with China's production increasing by 218,000 tons, India's decreasing by 217,000 tons, and the US's decreasing by 109,000 tons to 3.048 million tons. The total consumption was revised down by 70,000 tons to 25.638 million tons, with India's consumption decreasing by 109,000 tons to 555,200 tons. The global ending inventory in June decreased by 344,000 tons to 16.721 million tons, with the US's ending inventory decreasing by 196,000 tons [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Analysis Supply Side - As of May, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4587 million tons, at a relatively low level compared to historical data. As of June 6, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.2092 million tons, a decrease of 128,700 tons (3.86%) from last week. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 108,200 tons (4.49%) and that in inland areas decreased by 4,600 tons (1.02%) [14] Demand Side - It is currently the off - season for market consumption. As of the end of May, the yarn inventory days in China were 22.34, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.89, both at relatively low levels compared to historical data. As of June 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 72.2%, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period. The cotton sales situation is relatively fast. As of June 5, the national new cotton sales rate was 88.2%, with a cumulative sales volume of 5.889 million tons, an increase of 163,000 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 729,400 tons compared to the four - year average [14] Overall Situation - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price is affected by macro - factors such as Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries, which bring uncertainties. From the fundamental perspective, if the current de - stocking speed is maintained, the cotton price may be slightly bullish in fluctuation [14] Group 5: Option Strategies - On June 12, 2025, relevant data of several cotton option contracts are provided, including the option contract name, underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility (IV), Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage [19] - The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton was 10.4973. The position PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 0.9529, and the trading volume PCR was 0.6548. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [21] Group 6: Futures Trading Strategies - The trading logic is similar to the analysis of the Zhengzhou cotton price. The price is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The strategies are as follows: for single - sided trading, the US cotton price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation, and the Zhengzhou cotton price is expected to be bullish in fluctuation; for arbitrage and options, the strategy is to wait and see [23] Group 7: Weekly Data Tracking - The report presents data on the price difference between domestic and international cotton, the price difference between September and January contracts, the operating load of pure - cotton spinning mills and full - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn and grey fabric inventory days, cotton inventory (including commercial, industrial, and reserve inventories), and the basis of cotton futures and spot [25][26][28]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in China's consumption capacity and its strategy to expand domestic demand are reshaping global trade and providing new opportunities for developing economies [1][4]. Group 1: China's Economic Impact - China has a population of over 1.4 billion, with nearly 500 million middle-income individuals, leading to a rapidly growing consumer market with annual retail sales exceeding $6.5 trillion [3][4]. - China has been the world's second-largest import market for 16 consecutive years, indicating its role not just as an exporter but also as a significant consumer of raw materials [4][5]. - The economic model of China, which focuses on adding value to raw materials before re-exporting, serves as a valuable reference for many developing countries, particularly in Africa [4]. Group 2: Opportunities for Developing Economies - The local value addition exemplified by Chinese projects, such as the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and industrial parks in Ethiopia, reduces reliance on imports and creates job opportunities [4][5]. - China's market opening policies, including zero-tariff access for least developed countries that establish diplomatic relations with China, provide competitive advantages for African exporters [4][5]. - Digital platforms are transforming consumption in China and offer African countries the opportunity to reach millions of consumers within hours [5]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - China demonstrates that enhancing economic resilience through consumption, creating jobs via value addition, and establishing long-term strategic cooperation through trade policies are viable paths for developing economies [6].

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8050 | 8080 | -30 | -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7394 | 7390 | 4 | 0.05% | | 某差 | Y2509 | 656 | 690 | -34 | -4.93% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 合单 | | 17552 | 17652 | -100 | -0.57% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8350 | 8450 | -100 | -1.18% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7904 | 7898 | 6 | 0.08% | | 某差 | P2509 | 446 | 552 | -106 | -19.2 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: June 13, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Recommendations - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated. The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 was 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions had various cotton basis quotes. The cotton yarn market had slightly better but still weak trading, with prices stable and difficult to increase. Spinning mill profits deteriorated due to strong cotton and weak yarn. The cotton grey fabric market was sluggish, with prices remaining stable and weak. After the end of the Eid al-Adha festival in Xinjiang, local weaving factories gradually resumed work, but the overall operating rate was low [7] - Overseas, the shipment progress of old - crop cotton was good, and the good - to - excellent rate was weaker than the same period last year, supporting the foreign market. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new - crop cotton output was expected to be stable or slightly increase. There was a high risk of high - temperature heat damage in the budding period in most cotton - growing areas in southern Xinjiang this week. The downstream yarn and grey fabric sectors continued to weaken, with weak market demand, stable or increasing finished - product inventories, and a stable or decreasing operating rate of inland spinning mills. Downstream profits gradually deteriorated. In the short term, the fundamental drivers were limited, and the Zhengzhou cotton price was in a difficult situation. Attention should be paid to the performance at the upper pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the USDA's weekly crop growth report, as of the week ending June 8, the U.S. cotton planting progress was 76% (79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%), the budding rate was 12% (13% in the same period last year), and the good - to - excellent rate was 49% (56% in the same period last year) [9] - According to CONAB, as of June 7, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 1.4% (0.9% last week and 1.7% in the same period last year) [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provided various data charts, including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as USD/CNY and USD/INR [16][18][26]

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Cotton Conference was held in Guangzhou, focusing on sustainable cotton development and promoting new consumption trends in the industry [1] - Keynote speaker Wang Jianhong emphasized the need for the cotton industry to adapt to external challenges and enhance quality, brand influence, and market expansion [1][2] - The conference included discussions on balancing supply and demand in the cotton market, with a focus on stabilizing domestic consumption [2] Group 2 - The cotton target price policy is crucial for the sustainable development of the Xinjiang cotton industry, aiming to stabilize planting area and total output [2] - The importance of futures tools for risk management in the cotton and textile industries was highlighted, with companies increasingly recognizing their value [3] - A roundtable discussion featured insights from various industry leaders on domestic cotton pricing, consumption demand, and the use of futures for risk management [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: Supported by macro factors, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 14,784 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market was slightly better but still dull, and the cotton fabric market was light. After the end of the Eid al-Adha festival in Xinjiang, the local weaving mills resumed work, but the overall operating rate was low [7] - Macro situation: China and the US have reached a framework agreement in principle, with limited positive impact. Overseas, the shipment progress of old cotton was good, and the good and excellent rate was weaker than the same period last year, supporting the external market. Domestically, the market expected the new cotton output to increase steadily. The downstream yarn and fabric sectors continued to weaken, with weak market demand and increasing inventory [8] - Operation suggestion: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust narrowly. Pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending June 8, the US cotton planting progress was 76%, the budding rate was 12%, and the good and excellent rate was 49%, all weaker than the same period last year [9] - As of June 7, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 1.4%, slower than the same period last year [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different commodities show various import profit, price difference, and market trends, which are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and production and consumption patterns. Attention should be paid to policy changes and market dynamics for investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Metals - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For non - ferrous metals, understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence. Aluminum and zinc should end their reverse spreads, while for tin, with the smooth resumption of overseas and Myanmar mines and low LME inventory, pay attention to the positive spread. Nickel, zinc, copper, and aluminum all have negative import profits [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - term shipments and arrivals are increasing, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Overseas macro has strong short - term disturbances, and the domestic macro is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term opportunities for internal - external spreads, with the core being to profit from the discount of Dalian iron ore futures. In the long run, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1] - **Precious Metals**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price of precious metals, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, while India's Diwali supports gold consumption. The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3] Energy - **SC**: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external spread has also weakened [1] - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external spread maintains a weak pattern and has been fluctuating recently [1] - **LU**: The internal - external spread has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1] - **PG**: Recently, FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased. The internal - external spread has decreased, especially PG - CP. FEI - MB has changed little, FEI - CP has declined, and CP - MB has increased [1] - **PX**: Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external spread has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Due to the trade war and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets have gradually decoupled. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton due to high US tariffs on China. Now, after tariff cuts, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger. Continuously monitor subsequent tariff policy changes [2] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oilseeds and oils have a high degree of import dependence. The international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports. Focus on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [2]