研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 11 月 25 日 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 近期纺企依旧交付前期订单为主，新增订单较少；中小型纺企按需生产，库 存压力不大，走货尚可；部分大型纺企产销比有所下降，库存稍累，开机有一定 下调。溯源单近期纯澳棉等高品质纱走货尚可，部分厂商有抢 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have shown a slight increase, indicating a stable market environment for cotton trading [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Futures Market Overview - On November 24, ICE cotton futures opened at 63.95 cents per pound and are currently at 64.15 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.34% increase [1]. - The intraday trading range for cotton futures reached a high of 64.24 cents per pound and a low of 63.95 cents per pound [1]. Group 2: Historical Price Data - On November 21, ICE cotton futures had an opening price of 63.76 cents per pound, a closing price of 63.77 cents per pound, with a maximum price of 63.94 cents and a minimum of 63.11 cents, resulting in a slight decrease of 0.06% [2]. - As of November 20, the inventory of deliverable 2nd grade cotton contracts on ICE remained unchanged at 20,344 bales [2]. Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - On November 21, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported 3,465 cotton futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1,185 receipts compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The average price of 3128 grade cotton delivered nationwide was stable at 14,639 yuan per ton, while the price for 32s pure cotton yarn was also stable at 21,396 yuan per ton [2]. - Spinning profit remained unchanged at -706.9 yuan per ton, indicating no significant changes in the profitability of spinning enterprises [2].

（文章来源：新华财经） 据中国棉花信息网，11月24日，中国棉花价格指数（CC Index 3128B）为14793元/吨，较上个交易日下 跌3元/吨。 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton futures market showed a fluctuating upward trend. With the Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase almost finished, the market's expectation of the 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton output increased. The downstream market remained weak, but the overall finished - product inventory increased slightly. Considering the limited short - term fundamental changes, it is advisable to try to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang was between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton (public standard). The cotton yarn market's trading weakened, with fewer new orders for spinning mills and a decline in operating rates. The price of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable with a slight decline, while high - count combed yarn prices were relatively firm. The sales of cotton grey cloth were still differentiated, and the price was stable with a weakening trend [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Given the limited short - term fundamental changes, try to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices [8]. 3.2 Industry News - According to the USDA's weekly crop growth report, as of the week of November 16, the U.S. cotton picking rate was 71%, compared with 76% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 72%. As of November 18, 2025, 1,039 cotton processing enterprises across the country had processed and conducted notarized inspections on cotton, with a cumulative inspection of 3.2727 million tons, an increase of 101,900 tons from the previous day. Among them, Xinjiang's inspection volume was 3.244 million tons, an increase of 101,200 tons [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan and the U.S. dollar against the Indian rupee [16][18][19][21][28][30].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Domestic market: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated weakly. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 14,801 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The purchase of Xinjiang seed cotton was almost over, and the market's expectation of Xinjiang cotton production in the 2025/26 season increased with the progress of the purchase. The downstream market remained weak, with the overall finished product inventory increasing slightly. The domestic consumption data of textiles and clothing in October was acceptable. Zhengzhou cotton adjusted in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost support [7][8] - International market: As of the week ending November 14, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 1.2365 million tons, accounting for 40.3% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 17% slower than the same period last year [8] Operation Suggestions - Pay attention to the cost support for Zhengzhou cotton in the short - term [8] Group 3: Industry News - In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 20,000 tons from the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of cotton was 770,000 tons, a decrease of 1.62 million tons from the same period last year. In October 2025, China imported 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 20,000 tons from the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.18 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the same period last year [9] - As of the week ending November 14, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 1.2365 million tons, accounting for 40.3% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 17% slower than the same period last year. The inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton was 1.2151 million tons, with an inspection progress of 40.6%, a decrease of 17% year - on - year; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 21,300 tons, with an inspection progress of 26%, a decrease of 41% year - on - year [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures related to the cotton market, including price indices, futures prices, basis changes, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [16][18][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with current trading at 64.43 cents per pound, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.02% [1] - On November 18, the opening price for cotton futures was 64.10 cents per pound, reaching a high of 64.87 cents and a low of 63.75 cents, closing at 64.56 cents, which represents an increase of 0.59% [2] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicates that as of November 16, the cotton harvest rate in the U.S. was 71%, compared to 76% during the same period last year and a five-year average of 72% [2] Group 2 - In October, China's cotton imports totaled 90,000 tons, marking a year-on-year decrease of 15.6% [2] - The Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index reported a price of 64.62 cents per pound on November 18, which is an increase of 0.14% from the previous day and a rise of 0.09% compared to the same period last month [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bearish [2] Core View of the Report - ICE cotton futures rebounded, but with persistent seasonal supply pressure and rising commercial cotton inventories, Zhengzhou cotton hit a monthly low. The textile industry entered the off - season, with weakening domestic demand and limited growth in the return of foreign trade orders. Spinning mills had a weak willingness to replenish stocks, so Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak operation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 234,402 lots, and the open interest was 941,760 lots. The settlement prices were 13,415 yuan/ton for January, 13,420 yuan/ton for May, and 13,590 yuan/ton for September. The ICE December contract's settlement price was 62.57 cents, up 21 points; the March contract was 64.39 cents, up 33 points; the May contract was 65.57 cents, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 63,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 17, the basis price of machine - picked new cotton in Shihezi, Xinjiang, for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 1060 - 1100 yuan/ton, stable compared to last Friday, and the pick - up price was 14,460 - 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton from last Friday [2] - According to the USDA's November 2025 US cotton supply - demand forecast report, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area was 56.427 million mu, the harvested area was 44.729 million mu, and the abandonment rate remained unchanged at 20.7% [2] - In September, Indonesia imported 26,000 tons of cotton, a 35.5% decrease from the previous month (about 40,000 tons) and a 30.3% decrease year - on - year (37,000 tons), the smallest monthly import since March [2] - On November 17, the cotton yarn futures increased in volume and decreased in open interest, with prices falling, while the spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The textile market was lukewarm, with most cotton yarn prices stable, some enterprises offering small discounts, and overall good sales of Xinjiang cotton yarn, especially for 40S and 60S yarns [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures rebounded, but due to continuous seasonal supply pressure, rising commercial cotton inventories, the textile industry's off - season, weakening domestic demand, limited growth in the return of foreign trade orders, and spinning mills' weak willingness to replenish stocks, Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak operation [2] Trading Strategy - Close the put option and hold the call option for the previous at - the - money straddle option of the 01 contract; hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,500 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton futures market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating adjustment. The spot cotton price index has declined, and the downstream market shows mixed performance with the cotton yarn market holding steady and the cotton fabric market having limited pre - Chinese New Year stocking prospects. The November USDA report is bearish for the cotton market, and the short - term Zhengzhou cotton may continue to correct while being supported by cost factors [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a weak and fluctuating adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,801 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic cotton yarn market is stable, and the cotton fabric market has limited pre - Chinese New Year stocking. The Xinjiang seed cotton purchase is almost over, and the market's expectation of Xinjiang cotton production in the 2025/26 season is increasing. The downstream demand is still weak, with inventory slightly increasing [7][8] - **International Market**: The November USDA report increased the 2025/26 cotton production forecasts for the US, Brazil, and China, and slightly increased global cotton consumption. The report is bearish for the market [8] 3.2 Industry News - In October 2025, China's clothing, footwear, and textile product revenue was 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative revenue was 1.2053 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. As of November 16, 2025, the total national cotton inspection volume was 3.0893 million tons, with Xinjiang accounting for 3.0622 million tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple figures related to cotton price indices, spot prices, futures prices, basis changes, spreads, and inventory data are presented, but specific data values are not described in detail in the text [18][19][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Fats and Oils - Palm oil is expected to maintain a low - level volatile or weakly rebound trend, with Dalian palm oil futures fluctuating between 8600 - 8700 yuan. There is pressure to weaken again. Port inventory may rise due to reduced demand in cold weather [1]. - For soybean oil, the 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up, but the ending stocks are down. CBOT soybean oil is supported. In China, the spot price is slightly up, and the inventory is stable [1]. 2.2 Live Pigs - The spot price is weak, and the market is in a weak - range oscillation. The mid - term outlook is not optimistic. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [3]. 2.3 Meal Products - The USDA report lacks positive factors for US soybeans. China's soybean meal supply is loose, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [8]. 2.4 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the price rebounds, but the upside is limited due to supply pressure. Attention should be paid to selling and purchasing rhythms and storage [10]. 2.5 Sugar - India's sugar export may face difficulties in the short term. Brazil's supply is loose. The raw sugar price will oscillate around 14 cents/pound. The sugar market will maintain an oscillation this week [14]. 2.6 Cotton - The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton. In China, new cotton supply is high, and demand is weak, but some downstream support exists. The short - term cotton price will be under pressure [15]. 2.7 Eggs - The egg market supply is loose, and demand is weak in the short term. The price decline has not widened, and the market will be weakly oscillating. Near - month short positions can be closed gradually [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8590 yuan, unchanged from November 14. The basis is 308 yuan, down 7.78%. The 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up to 322.76 billion pounds [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8590 yuan, up 20 yuan. The basis is - 54 yuan, down 103.70%. The inventory may rise [1]. 3.2 Live Pigs - **Futures**: The main contract basis is - 45 yuan, down 120%. The price of live pigs 2605 is 12140 yuan, down 0.45% [3]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan is 11650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. The slaughter volume is up 0.05% [3]. 3.3 Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, down 0.65%. The basis is - 3 yuan, up 90.63% [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan, down 3.2%. The basis is - 29 yuan, down 390% [8]. 3.4 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port is 2182 yuan, down 0.14%. The basis is 48 yuan, up 92% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 is 2489 yuan, down 0.64%. The basis is 21 yuan, up 320% [10]. 3.5 Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5458 yuan, down 0.22%. The 1 - 5 spread is 60 yuan, down 9.09% [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning is 5600 yuan, down 1.06%. The national sugar production is up 12.03% [14]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13455 yuan, down 0.11%. The 5 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, down 50% [15]. - **Spot**: The price of Xinjiang 3128B is 14579 yuan, down 0.1%. The commercial inventory is up 70.4% [15]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: The price of egg 12 contract is 2987 yuan/500KG, down 1.52%. The 12 - 01 spread is - 242 yuan, down 19.8% [17]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area is 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.82%. The laying hen inventory is high [17].