Core Insights - The overall trend of ozone pollution in China has been initially controlled, stabilizing over the past three years [1] Group 1: Current Situation of Ozone Pollution - From January to May this year, the national ozone concentration was 140 micrograms per cubic meter, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [1] - There were a total of 2,480 days with ozone exceeding standards, higher than the historical average for the same period [1] - Ozone pollution characteristics this year include: 1. Early onset of pollution, with 80 cities exceeding ozone standards as early as March 26, one month earlier than the average start time [1] 2. Widespread pollution, with over 100 cities exceeding ozone standards for five consecutive days from May 26 to 30 [1] 3. Severity of pollution is greater in the south compared to the north, attributed to higher temperatures and lower precipitation in southern regions [1] Group 2: Future Measures for Ozone Pollution Control - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will enhance ozone pollution prevention through four main strategies: 1. Improve air quality monitoring networks and closely monitor the concentration changes of ozone and its precursors, volatile organic compounds, and nitrogen oxides [2] 2. Continue to investigate and rectify issues related to volatile organic compounds, with 5,912 enterprises inspected from January to April, uncovering 10,388 issues, and 9,530 issues rectified [2] 3. Promote ultra-low emission transformations in key industries, with over 80% of crude steel capacity undergoing such transformations by the end of May, along with significant projects in coking and cement industries [2] 4. Strengthen environmental regulation of motor vehicles, focusing on heavy-duty trucks and inspection agencies to combat excessive emissions and fraudulent practices [2]

Group 1 - The company, Baotailong, plans to transfer 55% equity of its subsidiary, Jixi Baotailong Investment Co., Ltd., to Heilongjiang Huiju Energy Development Group for approximately 154 million yuan, along with a debt transfer of about 146 million yuan, totaling 300 million yuan [1] - The subsidiary has been operating at a loss, with reported revenues of 0 yuan and net losses of 13.8 million yuan in 2024 and 704,600 yuan in Q1 of this year [1][2] - The sale aims to recover investments, optimize resource allocation, and reduce operational costs, thereby enhancing liquidity for the company [1] Group 2 - Baotailong's main business includes coal mining, processing, and production of various chemical products, with significant revenue fluctuations due to industry cycles [2] - The company reported revenues of 3.727 billion yuan in 2023 and 1.291 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting declines of 1.23% and 65.36% respectively, with total losses of 2 billion yuan over the two years [2] - In Q1 of this year, the company achieved revenues of 127 million yuan, a decrease of 75.71%, attributed to maintenance shutdowns of coking equipment [2][3] Group 3 - As of the end of Q1, Baotailong had cash reserves of 104 million yuan against interest-bearing liabilities of 1.876 billion yuan, indicating significant debt pressure [3] - The sale of the subsidiary is expected to alleviate some of the financial and operational pressures faced by the company [3]

Group 1: Market Trends - The domestic futures market saw a collective rise in coking coal and coke prices on June 23, with coking coal up 1.25% to 807 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 100 yuan since the beginning of the month, while coke fell 0.22% to 1385 yuan/ton, also up by 100 yuan from the start of June [1] - The fourth round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, leading to a weak price trend in the market despite the recent rebound in futures prices [1][2] - The overall coking coal market is experiencing a downward trend due to sufficient supply and low demand from coking plants, which are maintaining low inventory strategies [2] Group 2: Profitability and Production - As of June 19, the profitability of coking plants is at the breakeven point, with profits of 33 yuan/ton in Shandong, 18 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 17 yuan/ton in Shanxi [3] - The steel mills are experiencing improved profitability, with profits for steel billets increasing by 35 yuan/ton to 192 yuan/ton and rebar profits rising by 31.4 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [3] - The operating rate of independent coking enterprises has decreased to 74.14%, while the operating rate of blast furnaces has slightly increased to 83.54%, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance in the black industry chain [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests that the rebound in coal and coke prices will depend on market expectations regarding supply-demand balance, with potential disruptions expected due to stricter safety inspections and upstream profit pressures [5] - The expected price range for coking coal and coke futures contracts in the second half of the year is projected to be between 650-1050 yuan/ton and 1150-1500 yuan/ton, respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both coking coal and coke are "Oscillation". There are no specific ratings for cross - varieties, spot - futures, and options [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Coking coal and coke present a situation where short - term improvement and long - term pressure coexist. The short - term marginal situation has improved due to inventory reduction and supply disruptions, but the medium - and long - term pattern of loose supply and demand remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1,379.0 yuan/ton, up 26.5 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 1.96%. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 795.0 yuan/ton, up 7.6 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 0.95%. The futures prices showed a range - bound oscillation influenced by the marginal improvement in spot supply and demand [1][5]. Supply - This week, the total daily average output of steel mill coking and independent coking was 112.10 million tons, a decrease of 0.18 million tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate of the full sample of independent coking enterprises was 73.57%, a decrease of 0.39%; the daily average coke output was 64.70 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons. For the 247 steel mill samples, the daily average coke output was 47.39 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.39%, an increase of 0.27% [1][24][27]. Demand - According to Mysteel statistics, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills reached 83.82%, an increase of 0.41% from last week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, an increase of 0.21% from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points from last week; the daily average pig iron output was 242.18 million tons, an increase of 0.57 million tons from last week [1][37]. Inventory - According to Mysteel research data, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 634.2 million tons this period, a decrease of 8.64 million tons from last week; the total inventory of the full sample was 1,006.0 million tons, a decrease of 21.25 million tons from last week. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7,747 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons from last week; the total inventory of the full - caliber was 3,391.95 million tons, a decrease of 85.63 million tons from last week [2][38].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Coal Industry Energy Co., Ltd. experienced a significant stock price fluctuation, with a cumulative closing price increase exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days, indicating abnormal trading activity [1] Group 1: Stock Trading Abnormalities - The company's stock price increased by more than 20% cumulatively on June 12, 13, and 16, 2025, which is classified as an abnormal trading situation according to the Shanghai Stock Exchange rules [1] - The company conducted a self-examination and confirmed that there are no undisclosed significant matters affecting the stock price, aside from previously disclosed information [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 662 million yuan for the year 2024 and a net loss of 92 million yuan for the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to a downturn in the steel and coking industries [2] - The company's production and operational activities are normal, with no significant changes in market conditions or internal operations that would impact stock price fluctuations [2] Group 3: Major Events and Developments - The company is in the process of publicly transferring some idle assets from its Anning branch, with an assessed value of 72.1861 million yuan, although the success of this transfer remains uncertain [2] - There is an ongoing legal dispute involving the company related to a railway freight transport contract, but the company cannot currently assess the impact on its profits [3] Group 4: Management and Governance - The company's board of directors confirmed that there are no undisclosed matters that should be reported according to the relevant stock exchange rules, and all previously disclosed information remains accurate [4]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 螺纹钢市场周报 炉料反弹成本支撑 螺纹期价震荡偏强 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至6月20日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价2992（+23），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3130（+30）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：螺纹产量由降转增。212.18（+4.61）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：天气和中高考影响需求，表观需求三连降。本期表需219.19（-0.78），（同比-16.58）。（单位：万 吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库延续下滑，但降幅收窄。螺纹钢总库存551.07（-7.01），（同比-224.59）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周增加0.87个百分点，同比去年增加7.36个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）以伊冲突不断升级 ...

报告导读： 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月20日08时17分 投资咨询系列报告 消息面上，以伊冲突继续，目前尚未看到缓和的迹象，油价大幅反弹后回落。目前钢厂盈利率尚可，上周 247 家钢厂铁水产量超过 241.6 万吨，环 比下降 0.2 万吨，铁水明显高于去年同期水平。随着下游消费高峰期结束以及钢厂的限产 ，预计近期铁水产量将进一步回落。供应端，全球发运处 于相对高位且在沿着季节性回升趋势不断上升 。当前港口库存降速趋缓，且贸易矿库存比例偏高，对期价有明显的压力。技术面上，期价目前仍处 于大区间震荡格局 操作建议： 维持观望，回调后做多，不可以追涨杀跌 以伊冲突在继续，原油价格大幅拉升后回落。本周国家统计局公布的数据显示，各线房价环比均回落，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于筑底的过程中 。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹产量有所上市，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比继续回落，数据显示目前 处于供需双弱的状态。从需求的季节性规律看，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目前市场交易 的是弱现实和弱预期， ...

Group 1 - Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 5,650 CNY/ton for June, with the first round inquiry price at 5,500 CNY/ton, down from 5,850 CNY/ton in May [1] - As of June 19, rebar production has turned from decline to increase, with factory inventory decreasing for the fourth consecutive week and social inventory decreasing for the fifteenth consecutive week [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is -23 CNY/ton, with Shanxi's first-grade coke averaging -3 CNY/ton and Shandong's first-grade coke averaging 31 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - Brazilian shipping agency Williams reported that the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports is 2.8539 million tons, down from 2.9104 million tons the previous week [1] - The Canadian Grain Commission reported that as of June 15, canola exports decreased by 17.05% week-on-week to 131,400 tons [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% to 6,988,700 heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5-month high [1] Group 3 - The Singapore Enterprise Development Agency (ESG) reported that as of June 18, fuel oil inventory in Singapore decreased by 2.211 million barrels to 21.503 million barrels, the lowest in five weeks [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 40,400 tons week-on-week (+2.40%), with an increase of 17,200 tons compared to Monday [1] - On June 19, the auction for battery-grade lithium carbonate ended, with 300 tons from Ronghui Lithium Industry and 300 tons from Yongshan Lithium Industry sold at prices of 59,910 CNY/ton and 60,010 CNY/ton respectively [2] Group 4 - Insiders indicate that the photovoltaic industry is expected to see a greater reduction in production in the third quarter, with the operating rate expected to decrease by 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter [2]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive and home appliance sectors remain key highlights of the economy under the "Two New" policy benefits, with steady growth in retail sales of passenger vehicles and significant increases in new energy vehicle sales [1][7][8]. Automotive Sector - From June 1 to June 15, retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 20% year-on-year, compared to 13% in the previous month. Wholesale sales rose by 24% year-on-year, up from 14% [1][7]. - New energy vehicle sales during the same period reached 402,000 units, marking a 38% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 57% [1][7]. Home Appliance Sector - The three major home appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) maintained high sales growth, particularly in the first week of June, although growth slowed in the second week. Online sales from June 2 to June 8 showed year-on-year increases of 80.0% for air conditioners, 5.7% for refrigerators, and 42.6% for washing machines [8][9]. - In the subsequent week, online sales growth for these appliances dropped significantly, with air conditioners at 12.5%, refrigerators at -14.5%, and washing machines at 9.7% [8][9]. Industrial Sector - Container throughput growth has slowed, with domestic ports reporting a 0.6% year-on-year decline in cargo throughput from June 2 to June 15, while container throughput saw a slight increase of 0.7% [2][9]. - The industrial sector's operating rates and electricity consumption reflect seasonal characteristics, with steel and coking industries showing lower operating rates compared to May [3][11]. Real Estate Market - New home sales have shown signs of weakening, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities dropping by 7.6% year-on-year in mid-June [5][18]. - However, the second-hand housing market remains relatively active, with a 14.8% year-on-year increase in intermediary purchases across 84 cities [5][18]. Price Trends - Industrial product prices have seen a slight month-on-month recovery, particularly in non-ferrous metals, while consumer goods show mixed trends [19][20]. - The average wholesale price of pork has decreased by 2.0% month-on-month, indicating fluctuations in food prices [20].

Core Viewpoint - Yunmei Energy (600792.SH) announced that its stock price has deviated significantly, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in three consecutive trading days, but the company's production and operations remain normal [1] Company Summary - The company confirmed that there are no undisclosed significant matters that should be disclosed, and both the company and its controlling shareholders have no such matters [1] - For the fiscal years 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, the company expects to report a net profit attributable to shareholders that is negative, primarily due to the overall downturn in the steel and coking industries, leading to a decline in product gross margins [1] Industry Summary - The steel and coking industries are experiencing a significant downturn, impacting the company's profitability and operational performance [1]