Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with short-term supply-demand balance and long-term gaps still present [11][12] - Coal prices have established a bottom and are trending towards a new platform, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is relatively undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with quality coal companies exhibiting high barriers to entry, cash flow, dividends, and yield characteristics [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 12, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 624 CNY/ton, an increase of 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [28] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1310 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.7%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 85.52%, up 1.7 percentage points [11][46] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces increased by 6.10 thousand tons/day (+2.92%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a decrease of 9.50 thousand tons/day (-2.61%) [11][47] Coal Inventory Situation - As of July 10, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 785 thousand tons (-2.18%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight decrease of 0.70 thousand tons (-0.01%) [11][47] Key Companies to Watch - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention to companies with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Power Investment, and Guanghui Energy [12]

股本股东变化 兰花科创完成回购股份注销减少注册资本工商登记手续，回购的11,879,979股A股股份已注销，公司注 册资本变更为人民币1,473,240,021元，公司总股本变更为1,473,240,021股。公司取得山西省市场监督管 理局换发的《营业执照》，注册资本为147,324.0021万元。 截至2025年7月11日收盘，兰花科创（600123）报收于6.81元，较上周的6.58元上涨3.5%。本周，兰花 科创7月10日盘中最高价报6.87元。7月7日盘中最低价报6.54元。兰花科创当前最新总市值100.33亿元， 在煤炭开采板块市值排名22/30，在两市A股市值排名1661/5149。 本周关注点 公司公告汇总 兰花科创2024年年度权益分派实施公告，每股派发现金红利0.15元（含税），共计派发现金红利 220,986,003.15元。股权登记日为2025年7月11日，除权（息）日及现金红利发放日均为2025年7月14 日。对于持有公司无限售条件流通股的自然人股东及证券投资基金，持股期限超过1年的，每股实际派 发现金红利人民币0.15元。对于合格境外机构投资者（QFII）及香港市场投资者股东，税后每 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348) has shown a positive stock performance with a closing price of 7.04 yuan as of July 11, 2025, reflecting a 2.92% increase from the previous week [1] Company Announcements - Huayang Co., Ltd. announced a cash dividend of 0.309 yuan per share, with the record date set for July 14, 2025 [1] - The total cash dividend distribution amounts to 1,114,717,500 yuan, based on the company's total share capital of 3,607,500,000 shares prior to the implementation of the distribution plan [1] - The cash dividend will be distributed by China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch, to eligible investors on the payment date of July 15, 2025 [1] - For individual shareholders and securities investment funds holding unrestricted circulating shares, the cash dividend will not be subject to personal income tax, resulting in a net distribution of 0.309 yuan per share [1] - Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) and investors from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (Shanghai Stock Connect) will have a 10% corporate income tax withheld, leading to a net cash dividend of 0.2781 yuan per share [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The bond market fluctuated weakly this week due to multiple negative disturbances such as regulatory guidance on rural commercial bank bond investment and the supply of real estate and ultra - long - term bonds. The adjustment range of credit bonds was smaller than that of interest - rate bonds, and the spreads were mostly passively narrowed. Institutions may continue to explore high - coupon individual bonds after the stock - bond seesaw effect, which helps to further narrow the credit spreads. It is advisable to allocate high - coupon varieties on rallies, and pay attention to the right - hand opportunities for long - term credit bonds after the market stabilizes [2][5]. - For institutions with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds. For institutions with strong liability - side stability, take advantage of stable liabilities to extend the duration and actively allocate long - term varieties [2][14]. - When considering taking profits on long - term credit bonds, pay attention to three time points: when funds continue to net buy but credit spreads do not further compress significantly; when the net buying power of funds weakens or turns to small net selling; and using 10 - 15BP above the lowest spread last year as a reference line [5][13]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog I. Bond Market Review and Credit Strategy Outlook - This week, the equity market sentiment was strong, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continued. The bond market fluctuated weakly. Most credit bond yields rose, and spreads were mostly passively narrowed. The 3y - and - below short - end spreads of most varieties were compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term varieties still had some room [5][9][12]. - Looking forward, with the current fundamental pattern unchanged significantly and the second - quarter economic data being relatively strong, the risk of a trend reversal in the bond market is controllable. Institutions may continue to explore high - coupon bonds, and if the adjustment continues next week, it may bring better layout opportunities [5][13]. II. Key Policies and Hot Events - Shenzhen Longfor Holdings Co., Ltd. announced adjustments to the principal and interest repayment arrangements of 21 bonds, indicating that the debt restructuring of real - estate enterprises is accelerating and risk clearing is speeding up [2][16]. - Gansu Province established a 10 - billion - yuan provincial emergency working capital pool, with 2 billion yuan from provincial finance and 8 billion yuan from bank supporting financing, to support key enterprises in repaying due debts and effectively alleviate debt risks [2][3][16]. - The central bank and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced three opening - up optimization measures at the "Bond Connect Anniversary Forum 2025", which may bring new investment opportunities for Chinese overseas bonds traded in the Hong Kong market [2][3][17]. - Ten science - innovation bond ETFs completed their issuance, raising a total of 28.988 billion yuan, with subscriptions being extremely popular. Attention should be paid to the subsequent scale expansion [3][17]. III. Secondary Market - Credit bond yields generally rose this week, and spreads were mostly passively narrowed. In terms of different varieties: - For urban investment bonds, yields generally rose, and spreads mostly narrowed. Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of high - coupon urban investment bonds within 3y and extend the duration of medium - and high - grade varieties [20]. - For real - estate bonds, low - grade varieties were relatively weak. Currently, real - estate bond yields are still attractive, and attention can be paid to 1 - 2y central and state - owned enterprise real - estate AA and above varieties [21]. - For cyclical bonds, coal and steel bond yields mostly rose, and spreads mostly narrowed. For coal bonds, appropriate credit - risk exposure can be taken for short - end varieties, and the duration of medium - and high - grade varieties can be extended to 3y. For steel bonds, consider short - duration AA + implicit - rated varieties [21]. - For financial bonds, bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds generally underperformed, with yields rising and spreads mostly narrowing. Brokerage sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds also had yield increases and spread narrowing [22]. IV. Primary Market - This week, the credit bond issuance scale was 287.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 66.8 billion yuan, and the net financing was 88.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 47.8 billion yuan. The urban investment bond issuance scale was 102.3 billion yuan, an increase of 39.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 26 billion yuan, an increase of 174 billion yuan [6]. V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity of credit bonds in the inter - bank market decreased, while that in the exchange market increased [6]. VI. Rating Adjustments - This week, 1 entity's rating was downgraded, and 6 entities' ratings were upgraded [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the bond market adjustment, credit bonds were relatively strong, with the yields of 1Y - term varieties declining against the trend. The yields of interest - rate bonds rose across the board this week due to the increased risk appetite brought by the rise in the equity market. Credit bond yields generally followed the interest - rate increase but showed relative strength. Credit spreads mostly declined, and the spreads of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds also showed various downward trends, while the performance of secondary perpetual bonds was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds, and the excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remained flat while those of urban investment bonds increased slightly [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Credit bonds were relatively strong in the bond market adjustment, and the yields of 1Y - term varieties declined against the trend - Affected by the increased risk appetite from the equity market, the yields of interest - rate bonds rose across the board this week. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y term China Development Bank bonds rose by 5BP, 4BP, 5BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively. Credit bond yields generally followed the interest - rate increase, but 1Y - term and some 10Y - term varieties had declining yields. The yields of 1Y - term credit bonds of all ratings declined by 1 - 2BP [2][5]. - Credit spreads mostly declined, with high - grade 7Y - term varieties rising slightly. Rating spreads and term spreads mostly remained flat or declined [2][5]. 2. The spreads of urban investment bonds declined across the board, and medium - and low - grade varieties performed better - The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA - grade urban investment platforms declined by 3BP, 4BP, and 5BP respectively. The spreads of most AAA - grade platforms declined by 2 - 4BP, with Inner Mongolia down 8BP; the spreads of most AA + - grade platforms declined by 3 - 5BP, with Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Tibet having relatively large declines; the spreads of most AA - grade platforms declined by 4 - 6BP, with Yunnan down 9BP and Guizhou down 12BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, prefecture - level, and district - county - level platforms declined by 3BP, 4BP, and 4BP respectively [2][15]. 3. Most spreads of industrial bonds declined, and the spreads of AAA - grade coal bonds declined significantly - This week, the spreads of central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds declined by 5 - 6BP, the spreads of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds declined by 1BP, and the spreads of private - enterprise real - estate bonds rose by 2BP. Longfor's spreads declined by 20BP, Midea Real Estate's by 5BP, Vanke's by 5BP, and Gemdale's by 4BP, while CIFI's rose by 151BP [2][13]. - The spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA - grade coal bonds declined by 13BP, 5BP, and 3BP respectively; the spreads of AAA and AA + - grade steel bonds declined by 5BP and 2BP respectively; the spreads of all - grade chemical bonds declined by 4 - 6BP [2][13]. 4. The performance of secondary perpetual bonds was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds, and the spreads of 3Y - term varieties rose - Affected by the increase in certificate of deposit prices, the performance of secondary perpetual bonds was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds this week, and the spreads of 3Y - term varieties rose. The yields of 1Y - term secondary perpetual bonds of all ratings rose by 3 - 4BP, and the spreads compressed by 1 - 2BP. The yields of 3Y - term AAA - grade secondary capital bonds rose by 6BP, and those of other ratings rose by 4BP, with spreads rising by 0 - 2BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds rose by 5BP, and the spreads rose by 1BP [2][25][27]. 5. The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remained flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds increased slightly - This week, the excess spreads of 3Y - term AAA industrial perpetual bonds remained flat at 3.82BP, at the 0.95% quantile since 2015; the 5Y - term excess spreads remained flat at 8.51BP, at the 6.38% quantile. The excess spreads of 3Y - term AAA urban investment perpetual bonds rose by 0.64BP to 4.40BP, at the 0.59% quantile; the 5Y - term excess spreads rose by 0.21BP to 10.12BP, at the 10.27% quantile [2][29]. 6. Credit spread database compilation instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and ChinaBond Perpetual Bonds data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [35]. - Industrial and urban investment individual - bond credit spreads = individual - bond ChinaBond valuation (exercise) - same - term China Development Bank bond yield to maturity (calculated by linear interpolation method), and then the credit spreads of industries or regional urban investments are obtained by the arithmetic mean method [35]. - Excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds = credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds - credit spreads of bank ordinary bonds of the same rating and term; excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds = credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds - credit spreads of medium - term notes of the same rating and term [35].

Group 1 - The report indicates that since late May, the long-term credit bond market has seen significant net buying activity, reflecting high market participation enthusiasm [1][9] - The long-term credit bond market began to show independent trends in both last year and this year under extreme conditions of short-term yield compression, leading to a focus on duration for yield [9][12] - The report highlights that the current long-term credit bond market is influenced by the "stock-bond" effect, with institutions being cautious and focusing on profit-taking points [1][9] Group 2 - For the 5-7 year medium-term bonds, institutional net buying has significantly increased since late May, with peak net buying volumes reaching around 3.5 billion [2][14] - In the 7-10 year medium-term bonds, the fluctuation of fund net buying is a crucial factor affecting credit spreads, with insurance companies showing stronger net buying compared to last year [2][17] - For bonds over 10 years, the participation of funds has been limited this year, with the main buying force coming from insurance and other product categories, resulting in weaker effects on credit spread compression [2][18] Group 3 - The report states that the compression of credit spreads has reached an extreme level for short-term bonds (3 years and under), while there is still some room for long-term bonds (5 years and above) [3][23] - The report suggests that if funds continue to buy long-term credit bonds significantly, it could further compress spreads; otherwise, the compression potential may be limited [3][23] - The report identifies three key points for profit-taking in long-term credit bonds, including observing fund buying trends and credit spread movements [3][9] Group 4 - The report recommends that institutions with weaker liability stability should focus on 2-3 year low-grade bonds and 4-5 year high-yield bonds, while those with stronger stability should actively allocate long-term bonds [4][9] - The yield range for 7-year AA+ rated bonds and 10-15 year AA+ rated bonds is noted to be between 2.07% and 2.39%, indicating potential for yield exploration [4][9]

Summary of Huabei Mining Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Huabei Mining, a company involved in coal mining and related businesses, particularly focusing on coking coal and non-coal operations [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coking Coal Price Trends**: In Q3, the long-term contract price for coking coal decreased by approximately 100-130 RMB/ton compared to Q2, leading the company to a near break-even state [2][4]. 2. **Production and Financial Performance**: - Q1 production was around 4.3 million tons, which did not meet expectations due to complex geological conditions. Q2 saw an improvement with an increase of about 200,000 tons [3]. - The coking business turned profitable in Q2, recovering from a loss of 215 million RMB in Q1 to profitability in Q2, with a reduction in losses exceeding 200 million RMB [3][8]. - Non-coal business revenue increased by approximately 300 million RMB compared to Q1, with significant contributions from the titanium-zinc purification project and the forest mining sector [2][14]. 3. **Cost Management**: The company implemented cost reduction measures, achieving a coal cost of about 520 RMB/ton in Q1, a decrease of approximately 70 RMB year-on-year. The target for the full year is to maintain costs around 500 RMB/ton, although further reductions may be limited due to high labor costs [12][14]. 4. **Market Outlook**: Short-term coking coal prices may rebound due to supply constraints and steel mills' restocking needs. However, long-term demand is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors and low inventory strategies at steel mills [6]. 5. **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35% and has established a three-year shareholder return plan from 2025 to 2027 [12][13]. 6. **Non-Coal Mining Performance**: The non-coal mining sector showed improved performance in Q2, with profits increasing significantly due to the gradual release of capacity from new mines [10]. Additional Important Information - **Regulatory Environment**: The national anti-involution policy currently does not impact the coal and steel industries significantly, and the company has not received any related directives [7]. - **Future Production Plans**: The company has no plans to reduce production, emphasizing the need to maintain cash flow and fulfill social responsibilities [5]. - **Profitability Projections**: The profitability per ton of coal was approximately over 100 RMB in Q2, but is expected to decrease in Q3 due to further price declines [15]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market conditions, and strategic outlook.

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that the CPI turned positive in June, primarily driven by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, with energy and core goods showing improvement [1][2] - CPI food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with pork prices shifting from a 3.1% increase to an 8.5% decrease, negatively impacting CPI by 0.14 percentage points [2] - Industrial consumer goods prices improved, with CPI for these goods decreasing by 0.8%, a reduction in the decline by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][9] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI further widened its year-on-year decline from -3.3% to -3.6%, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative growth, with 26 out of 30 categories showing no growth month-on-month [4][5] - Domestic and international energy prices exhibited divergent trends, with international oil prices recovering due to geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell due to seasonal demand and high inventory levels [5][6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve prices in certain sectors, with prices for gasoline and new energy vehicles showing smaller year-on-year declines [6] Group 3: Policy Implications - The focus is on expanding domestic demand and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, addressing the supply-demand imbalance exacerbated by external uncertainties [7][8] - Policies are anticipated to promote consumption and improve supply-side regulations to correct market failures, aiming for a reasonable recovery in prices and sustainable innovation [8]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠、 耿佩璇 联系人 | 侯倩楠 摘要 中央财经委会议提出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争…推动落后产能有序退出"为"反内卷"指明方向。 相比过往，本轮"内卷"症结何在，如何破解"内卷"困境？系统分析，供参考。 一、本轮"反内卷"，有何不同？站位更高，覆盖面更广，协同性更强 中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，以纵深推进全国统一大市场建设为主题，为"综合整治内卷式竞争"政 策部署指明方向 。 会议提出"五统一、一开放"要求，同时强调"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争…推动 落后产能有序退出"等，进一步明确行后续"反内卷"政策路径。 本轮"反内卷"站位更高，覆盖面更广，协同性更强。 本轮"反内卷"，地方政府（招商引资）、企业（过 度投资、降价）、居民（日均工作时间增加）可能都在讨论的范畴中。且"内卷"领域民营经济占比较高 下，本轮"反内卷"协同性或更强，更突出政策与市场机制配合。同时，本轮"反内卷"更强调区域治理， 明确将推动全国统一大市场建设列为核心任务。 见微知著，部分企业"内卷"症结或部分缘于营收增速大幅回落与固定费用刚性的矛盾，使得其不得不采 用降价等方式追 ...

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy has become a hot topic in the stock and commodity markets, with various industries responding and institutions releasing related research reports [1] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the "anti-involution" trend may develop in three phases: initial expectations catalyzed by policy, followed by rising prices of resource products, and finally, a prolonged period of high prices for these resources [1] - CITIC Securities identifies three key differences between the current "anti-involution" and the supply-side reform of 2015-2016, including broader industry coverage, better operating conditions for upstream enterprises, and a higher proportion of private enterprises in emerging industries [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Merchants Fund focuses on two major industrial issues: structural contradictions in capacity and disruptions to fair competition, particularly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, where prices have dropped significantly [2] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the "anti-involution" policy will have a more pronounced effect on correcting vicious competition and benefiting emerging industries, particularly in sectors with high state-owned enterprise representation [2] - Specific sectors to watch include the photovoltaic industry chain, traditional industries facing overcapacity like steel and cement, and emerging non-manufacturing sectors such as e-commerce [2] Group 3 - Huachuang Securities identifies potential beneficiary industries of the "anti-involution" policy based on factors like state-owned enterprise representation, industry concentration, price elasticity, taxation, and employment [3] - Industries likely to benefit include coal mining, coke, ordinary steel, energy metals, glass fiber, steel raw materials, precious metals, and the hospitality sector [3]