分析师：罗鹏 执业证书号：S1030523040001 大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 13 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 郑彬彬] 执业证书号：S1030523030001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhengbb@csco.com.cn 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 分析师：赵靖 执业证书号：S1030525070001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 国庆中秋双节消费稳中有增 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（10 月第 2 周） [行业Table_S 观点：ummary ] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率 ...

Consumer Macro Strategy - The report highlights three major events that influenced consumer market trends over the past two weeks, including stable growth in overall consumption during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with a notable increase in outbound tourism but fewer domestic consumption highlights leading to a post-holiday decline in related sectors [3][10] - The Q3 earnings preview indicates that while the overall consumer service sector remains stable compared to Q2, consumption-related products face high base pressure in Q4, and other sectors are in a positioning phase after negative earnings surprises in Q3 [3][10] - The ongoing US-China technological competition is expanding into the consumer sector, with new tariffs announced by the US on imports from China, posing challenges for export-oriented consumer companies [3][10] New Consumption Manufacturing - The two-wheeler market showed strong performance in Q3, with healthy inventory levels in downstream channels, but the industry faces a critical test in Q1 2026 [21] - The pet industry is experiencing weaker performance in the off-season, but the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to act as a catalyst [21] Light Industry Manufacturing - In the home furnishing sector, domestic demand remains weak due to unhealed real estate issues, while external demand faces increased tariff risks, with significant tariff hikes announced by the US [24] - The new tobacco sector is seeing intensified actions against illegal e-cigarettes in the US, benefiting legitimate brands, while HNB products maintain strong production schedules in Japan and Europe [27] - The packaging paper market is experiencing a bullish sentiment with frequent price increases expected [27] Textile and Apparel - The apparel retail sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.1% in August, but sales weakened in September and during the National Day holiday due to weather conditions and timing changes [29] - The report suggests focusing on brands with unique market positions and those showing significant performance advantages in sub-sectors [29][30] Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector is recovering after a previous decline, with cosmetic retail sales increasing by 5.1% year-on-year in August, indicating a positive trend [31] - Recommendations include focusing on leading brands with strong performance and those undergoing successful reforms [31] Home Appliances - TV panel prices remained stable in early October, with various sizes maintaining consistent pricing [32] - Gree Electric's new product line aims to capture the online market segment, enhancing its competitive position [32][33] Retail and E-commerce - Offline retail shows signs of stabilization, with supermarkets performing well while department stores face slight pressure [34] - The jewelry sector is benefiting from rising gold prices, enhancing consumer acceptance and brand premium capabilities [34] Social Services - The report expresses optimism for high-value dining and the recovery of mid-to-high-end restaurants, alongside stable growth in tourism and education sectors [35] - The tea beverage market is expected to see a decline in performance due to policy impacts, with leading brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming showing growth potential [36]

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has expanded this week, with the non-ferrous metals industry continuing to lead the market [1] - During the National Day holiday, favorable factors for the non-ferrous industry have emerged, contributing to its ongoing leadership [1] - The current overall PB (LF) of the non-ferrous metals industry is at the historical 87.8 percentile, with specific sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and gold at 92.1%, 96.3%, 40.7%, and 83.6% percentiles respectively, indicating greater valuation upside potential for lithium [1] A-share Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares increased from 22.36 times last week to 22.78 times this week, while PB (LF) rose from 2.17 times to 2.21 times [10] - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board increased from 81.61 times to 82.22 times, while its PB (LF) remained stable at 4.88 times [19] - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rose from 272.77 times to 276.66 times, with PB (LF) increasing from 6.72 times to 6.81 times [21] Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, major industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical sectors have absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, with consumer discretionary and midstream manufacturing exceeding the 90th percentile [27] - In terms of PB (LF), TMT, midstream manufacturing, and consumer discretionary also show absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, while financial services and consumer staples are below historical medians [29] - The overall valuation of key companies in A-shares based on dynamic PE increased from 15.17 times to 15.19 times this week [14] Relative Valuation Expansion - The relative PE (TTM) for computing infrastructure, excluding operators and resource categories, decreased from 5.80 times to 5.66 times, while relative PB (LF) fell from 5.69 times to 5.54 times [23] - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like oil and petrochemicals, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [2] ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares decreased from 0.80% to 0.76%, while the equity-debt yield spread fell from -0.19% to -0.24% [60] - The dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares increased from 2.76% to 2.77% this week [64]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The profit of major industrial enterprises in China improved significantly in August 2025, with total profits reaching CNY 46,929.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. This marks a turnaround from negative to positive growth, with August profits alone showing a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [2][3]. - In the consumer goods manufacturing sector, essential food and beverage manufacturing industries experienced positive profit growth, while optional consumer sectors showed lackluster performance. Specifically, the agricultural and sideline food processing sector saw profits rise by 11.8% year-on-year, while nine other sectors reported negative growth, with declines exceeding 10% in five sectors [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industrial Profit Performance - From January to August 2025, major industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 46,929.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% and an improvement of 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. - The total operating revenue for the same period was CNY 896,231.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [2]. Consumer Goods Manufacturing - Among 13 major categories in consumer goods manufacturing, four sectors, including agricultural and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, beverage and tea, and tobacco products, reported positive profit growth from January to August 2025 [3]. - The beverage and tea sector saw a profit growth rate increase of 22.7% compared to the previous month, while the chemical fiber and paper industries also experienced slight improvements [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: 1. **Food and Beverage**: The white liquor industry is seen as bottoming out, with low valuations and high dividends providing strong support. The report anticipates a market upturn ahead of financial performance improvements [4]. 2. **Social Services**: As a key driver of consumption recovery, sectors like tourism, duty-free, hotels, and restaurants are expected to benefit from policy support [4]. 3. **Retail**: The gold and jewelry sector is highlighted due to its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid global trade uncertainties, while domestic cosmetics brands are gaining traction [4]. 4. **Light Industry Manufacturing**: The report notes potential demand recovery in home appliances and furniture due to government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [4].

策略 FICC日报 | 2025-10-10 有色板块爆发，沪指站上3900点 市场分析 对稀土等出口管制。国内方面，我国域外管辖迈出坚实一步。商务部发布公告，宣布对境外相关稀土物项和稀土 相关技术实施出口管制，并将反无人机技术公司等14家外国实体列入不可靠实体清单。商务部还会同海关总署连 发4则公告，宣布对超硬材料、部分稀土设备和原辅料、部分中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料等相关物项实 施出口管制。海外方面，哈马斯高级官员、首席谈判代表哈利勒·哈亚发表声明宣布达成停火协议，哈利勒·哈亚表 示，哈马斯已从包括美国在内的调解方那里获得了保证，"加沙战争已经结束"。美国方面，美国共和党提出的结 束美国政府停摆的法案未能在参议院获得足够票数，法案未获通过。 指数走强。现货市场，A股三大指数走强，沪指涨1.32%收于3933.97点，刷新十年高点创业板指涨0.73%。行业方 面，板块指数涨多跌少，有色金属板块爆发，钢铁、煤炭、公用事业行业领涨，传媒、房地产、社会服务、行业 跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额约为2.6万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌0.52%报46358.42点。 期指增仓。期货市场，基差 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3900 points, indicating a recovery in market volume [2][5][13] - Key sectors leading the market include metals and mining (+6.96%), coal (+3.00%), public utilities (+2.65%), and electronics (+2.21%), while sectors such as social services (-1.67%) and media internet (-1.23%) saw declines [2][8][14] - The overall market performance showed the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.32%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.73%, with total market turnover around 2.67 trillion yuan [2][8][14] Market Analysis - The market sentiment is strong as it is the first trading day after the National Day holiday, with upstream cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal leading the gains [8][14] - The technology sector, including solid-state batteries, humanoid robots, and semiconductors, also showed overall growth, driven by breakthroughs in controllable nuclear fusion technology [8][14] - The report highlights that the market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, supported by ample micro liquidity and the influx of long-term capital [13][14] Sector Performance - The report identifies that the AI and robotics sectors are at a critical commercialization window, while traditional sectors face supply surplus issues, necessitating policy support for recovery [14] - The focus on technology growth includes attention to the "Double Innovation" and Hang Seng Technology Index, as well as sectors like lithium batteries, military industry, and chemicals [14] - Value sectors showing improving conditions include metals, gaming, and Hong Kong internet, with a focus on industries with rising revenue growth and gross margins [14]

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing sector shows further improvement with a notable recovery in small enterprises, as indicated by the September PMI data, which reported a manufacturing PMI of 49.8%, a non-manufacturing business activity index of 50.0%, and a composite PMI output index of 50.6% [2][3] - The production index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, while the new orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, still below the critical point [3] - New export orders reached a high of 47.8%, marking a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a reduction in the impact of tariff policies [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, with the construction sector slightly improving to 49.3% and the service sector declining to 50.1% [4] - The composite PMI output index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing, which offset the short-term decline in non-manufacturing [4] A-Share Market Investment Strategy - Major indices in the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.09% and the ChiNext Index by 0.81% over the recent trading period [6][7] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to clarify economic strategies, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and supporting innovation as key components [7] - The market is anticipated to maintain a strong structural characteristic, with potential investment opportunities in sectors such as TMT, electric power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and consumer services [8] Industry Research - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached CNY 9,400.40 billion from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.90% [14] - The light industry sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.54% against the index's increase of 3.20% [15] - The packaging paper industry is expected to see improved performance due to price increases being passed down to downstream sectors, with significant profit growth anticipated in Q3 [15][16] - The consumer market showed stable growth during the recent holiday period, with government subsidies expected to further stimulate sales in related sectors [15][16]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a strong tourism data during the National Day holiday, with cross-border tourism consumption being a significant highlight, while box office performance was relatively weak [3] - The report anticipates that the third quarter earnings reports will focus on four main areas: benefiting from external interest rate cuts and emerging demand in non-ferrous metals, price stabilization in steel, coal, chemicals, and photovoltaics, steady growth in automotive, lithium batteries, electricity, and logistics, and AI-related sectors driven by domestic and international demand [3][4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report indicates that the overall revenue of the real estate development industry shrank by 14.9% year-on-year to 1.54 trillion yuan, with a net profit loss of 867 billion yuan, marking a 157.2% decline [11] - The report emphasizes that 2025 will see a continued focus on policy-driven growth in the real estate sector, with a recommendation to prioritize investments in leading companies and those with strong fundamentals [12] Group 3: Company Insights - The report discusses China Resources Beverage's decision to relocate its registered office to Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance operational stability and investor confidence [15] - The company aims to strengthen its product matrix by focusing on multiple brands and water types, with plans to launch 14 new products in the beverage sector [16]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.73%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,526.88 billion yuan [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal led the gains, while media, real estate, and social services lagged behind. Concept sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, lead metal, and superconducting concepts saw significant increases, whereas duty-free shops, ice and snow industries, and rental purchase rights experienced declines [2][7] - The Hong Kong market showed a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.29% and the Hang Seng Technology Index down by 0.66%. In overseas markets, all three major US indices fell, with the Dow Jones down by 0.52%, the S&P 500 down by 0.28%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.08% [2][7] Important News - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials. The controlled items include rechargeable lithium-ion batteries with an energy density of ≥300 Wh/kg and their manufacturing equipment, which cannot be exported without permission. The scope of control for rare earth-related technologies, equipment, and raw materials includes rare earth mining, smelting separation, metal smelting, magnetic material manufacturing, and secondary resource recycling technologies, all of which also require permission for export [3][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the period after the National Day holiday is a traditional window for risk appetite to rise, with a significant increase in market win rates, particularly favoring technology growth sectors [1][2] - Historically, after the National Day holiday, the broad market indices show a notable increase in win rates, with growth styles being more dominant, especially in sectors represented by TMT, advanced manufacturing, and export chains [1][2] Group 2 - In October, the hardware segment within TMT is expected to outperform due to earnings disclosures, the concentration of new product launches, and the upcoming Double Eleven sales season [4] - The effectiveness of investment in sectors with favorable economic conditions is expected to increase in October, as the correlation between stock price movements and earnings growth improves as the third-quarter report disclosure period approaches [6] Group 3 - Since September, the industries with upward revisions in profit expectations are primarily concentrated in AI (gaming, computer equipment, communication devices, components), advanced manufacturing (motorcycles, aerospace equipment, home appliance components, batteries, medical services), cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, glass fiber, steel, agricultural chemicals), consumption (beverages, dairy products, seasoning and fermentation products, pet economy, jewelry), and finance (brokerage, insurance, city commercial banks) [7][9] - The profit revision ratios and expected profit growth rates for various sectors indicate a strong performance in technology, advanced manufacturing, and cyclical sectors, with notable companies highlighted in each category [9] Group 4 - The intensity of industry rotation is expected to converge in October, with a consensus forming around the economic growth themes as the market focuses on the clues from the third-quarter reports [10][11] - October is identified as a traditional window for the convergence of industry rotation intensity and market consensus, suggesting a structural focus on key themes for trading [10][11]