1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and the growth prospects of investment demand will boost the price of precious metals. In the short - term, low inventory and potential short - term demand release increase the upward price elasticity. Platinum and palladium prices mainly follow gold and silver [3]. - The arrival of domestic electrolytic copper is scarce, and downstream restocking at low prices has led to a decline in inventory, keeping the futures market strong. However, new downstream orders are growing weakly, and the market will maintain a high - level shock consolidation after the breakthrough [15]. - The Shanghai Aluminum futures are oscillating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and the impetus from copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum and has strong downside support [34][35]. - Macro - sentiment has improved, and the probability of interest - rate cuts is considered high. On the fundamental side, smelters are competing fiercely for ore, leading to a significant decline in TC. Supply is shrinking, and demand is entering the off - season. The market is in a stalemate and will oscillate strongly in the short - term [65]. - Nickel iron prices have been declining recently, and some iron plants are inclined to cut production. Stainless steel is running strongly, but its upward momentum is expected to be limited [80]. - In the short - term, the supply of tin has raw - material problems and frequent disturbances, so Shanghai Tin will maintain a high - level shock [96]. - In the context of Ningde's resumption of production, the supply - demand game in the lithium carbonate market will intensify, and price fluctuations are expected to widen. There is a short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and prices may experience a phased correction [109]. - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its fundamentals are difficult to improve in the short - term. In the long - term, the downward price space is limited. The short - term trading of the polysilicon market focuses on the game between warehouse receipts and open interest, and price fluctuations are expected to increase [121]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Forecast**: London Silver's target has been raised to 65 after breaking through 55, with the first resistance at 60. London Gold has resistance at 4250 and strong resistance at 4400, with support at 4000 [3]. - **Price Index**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][8][9]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories are shown [14]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The futures market is strong due to low inventory, but new downstream orders are growing weakly. The market will maintain a high - level shock [15]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, import profits and losses, and refined - scrap price differences are provided [15][22][26][29]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME copper inventories are presented [30][31]. Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Shanghai Aluminum is oscillating strongly due to macro - factors and the impetus from other metals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [34]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and import profits and losses are provided [36][43][50][56]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina inventories are presented [58]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental side is in a stalemate. The market will oscillate strongly in the short - term [65]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and LME zinc's 0 - 3m and 3 - 15m spreads are provided [66][71]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME zinc inventories are presented [74][76]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel iron prices are declining, and some iron plants are inclined to cut production. Stainless steel is running strongly, but its upward momentum is limited [80]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, trading volume, open interest, and basis are provided [81]. - **Related Data**: Nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins are presented [87][88][90]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The supply of tin has raw - material problems and frequent disturbances, so it will maintain a high - level shock [96]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, import profits and losses, and processing fees are provided [97][102][107]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME tin inventories are presented [104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand game will intensify, and price fluctuations are expected to widen. There is short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and prices may correct [109]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and price differences between different grades are provided [110][113]. - **Inventory**: Exchange and social inventories are presented [119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon is in a weak supply - demand situation, and its fundamentals are difficult to improve in the short - term. The polysilicon market's short - term trading focuses on the game between warehouse receipts and open interest [121]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices are provided [121][131]. - **Related Data**: Production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented [145][152][154].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xiangcai Securities suggests focusing on the supply side being affected by foreign mine shutdowns in the short term and long-term supply constraints due to insufficient capital expenditure, while domestic grid investment and new demand from AI and renewable energy are expected to increase the supply-demand gap in the future [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry has significantly outperformed benchmarks since 2025, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 65.71%, surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 52.53 percentage points [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector's revenue growth has stabilized, with a year-on-year revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan, up 9.5%, and a net profit of 151.29 billion yuan, up 40.9% [2] - The energy metals sector has shown substantial improvement in performance, while precious metals and minor metals continue to lead in revenue and profit growth [2] Group 2: Copper Sector - In the first three quarters of 2025, the copper sector achieved a revenue of 1.424 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.01%, and a net profit of 69.01 billion yuan, up 46.17% [3] - The profitability of the copper sector has improved, with gross and net profit margins increasing to 10.42% and 5.84%, respectively [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector reported a revenue of 299.54 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, and a net profit of 14.73 billion yuan, up 62.64% [4] - The growth in revenue and net profit is primarily driven by significant increases in gold and silver prices [4] Group 4: Rare Earth and Tungsten Sectors - The rare earth sector's revenue growth turned positive in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant improvements in performance, while the magnetic materials segment also saw revenue growth and improved profitability [4] - The tungsten sector achieved a revenue of 50.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.38%, and a net profit of 2.87 billion yuan, up 28.58% [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, likely Kevin Hassett, which is expected to increase market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar [2][13]. - After a sharp decline, the odds of the bond market have improved, but there is a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise [3][23]. - Due to floods in palm oil - producing areas, the supply pressure is expected to ease, and palm oil prices may rebound [4][25]. - CSPT's decision to cut copper production in 2026 and other factors are expected to drive copper prices to continue to rise [4][45]. - OPEC+ has decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, and short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend [5][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - A data center cooling system problem in Chicago led to a trading halt at CME, causing disruptions in multiple markets. Gold rose about 1.5% and silver soared 5% on Friday, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts. The Shanghai and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories are falling, and the CME trading halt has reduced market liquidity. It is recommended to reduce positions [10]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Japanese Finance Minister said the rapid yen depreciation is not driven by fundamentals. Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, and it is expected that Hassett will be elected, leading to increased market risk appetite and a weaker US dollar [11][13]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine's new negotiation representative went to the US to discuss ending the war. The CME system failure caused trading interruptions. The US rate - cut expectations are rising, and the market risk appetite has improved. The US stock index is expected to continue to repair and show a strong - biased volatile trend [15][16]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, slightly up from the previous value. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium. The stock market trading volume has shrunk, and there may be no trend - based market in the short term. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices [18][19]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, in line with expectations. The central bank conducted a 3013 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise. It is recommended to short long - term bond varieties on rebounds [21][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra has caused floods and landslides. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to ease, and prices may rebound. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the end of November, about 30 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started production. The sugar production in Guangxi in November is expected to be 100,000 tons, far lower than last year. The Zhengzhou sugar 1 - month contract is expected to oscillate, and the main funds will gradually shift to the 5 - month contract [26][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October, China's cotton product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The EU's clothing imports from China increased in Q3. The US cotton export signing and shipment increased in the week ending October 16. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term [32][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia plans to add 48.4 million tons of steel production capacity from 2030 - 2035. China's November automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, up year - on - year and month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate with a slight rebound, and it is recommended to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Argentina's soybean planting was 39% complete as of November 27. The US sold 312,000 tons of soybeans to China. International markets should focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather, and domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [39][41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Corn starch is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to operate in the price - difference range in the medium - short term and expect it to strengthen in the long term [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of November 27, the average grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, and in North China was 25%, both faster than last year. Corn futures contracts are expected to have different trends, and it is not recommended to short against the trend in the short term [43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - CSPT agreed to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. Copper prices are expected to rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Hainan's new - energy power price was cleared at the upper limit. Polysilicon prices are under pressure, and it is recommended that investors operate with caution due to high volatility [49][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan are declining. The market is expected to oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [52][54]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 27, LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The old - standard electric bicycle CCC certificates will be cancelled from December 1. The lead market is short of supply and strong in demand, and it is recommended to buy on dips [55][56]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 27, LME zinc had a large - scale contango. Antamina's zinc ore tender price was below $30/dry ton. Zinc prices are likely to rise, and it is recommended to observe buying opportunities on the right side and hold long - spread positions [57][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Frontier Lithium released its mid - term report. The lithium carbonate market may face short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to short on highs in the short term and buy on lows in the medium term [59][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. The nickel market is in surplus, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at the current level [63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 28, the EUA main contract closed at €83.26/ton. EU carbon prices are supported by auction suspension and reduced supply in 2026 but may be suppressed by warm weather [65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US crude oil production reached a record high in September. Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress [67][70]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The UK plans to cancel the small - package tariff exemption in 2029. The SCFI index rose. The container freight market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to consider light - position long positions in the 02 contract [71][72].

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/11/26 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 116,920 yuan/ton and closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, a change of -0.53% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,221 (-79,345) lots, and the open interest was 127,765 (-503) lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a slight oscillating downward trend, failing to continue the rebound of the previous few days. The price closed below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, with a bearish technical outlook. After the macro - positive sentiment faded, the nickel price returned to the fundamental market [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and the nickel ore price remained stable. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders for shipment, and the shipping efficiency was okay. The downstream ferronickel price was weak, and the iron - making plants' profits were affected. They were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, and some plants had the intention to cut production to stop losses. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (phase one) was expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade premium was in the range of +25 - 26, and there was room for it to decline due to the falling ferronickel price [1]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The overall spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were adjusted downwards. Jinchuan nickel's premium remained at 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,548 (-396) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,450 (+930) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Strategy - With high inventories and an oversupply situation remaining unchanged, the nickel price was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was to focus on range trading, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of stainless steel opened at 12,435 yuan/ton and closed at 12,410 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,697 (-24,902) lots, and the open interest was 122,062 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract showed a slight oscillating downward trend, and its price movement basically followed that of Shanghai nickel. The stainless - steel fundamentals were still weak. The social inventory increased this week, rising 0.64% compared to last week to 946,000 tons. After the macro - positive factors were exhausted, the price was expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [3]. - Earlier this week, the trading volume improved due to the price rebound, but it weakened again yesterday when the price dropped. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 325 - 525 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 883.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuous downward shift in the cost center, stainless steel was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was neutral, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. However, as the current price is at a 5 - year low, the downside space is limited [1][2] - For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in low - level oscillations. After the macro - level positive factors fade, there is a risk of price weakening. Similar to nickel, the current price is at a 5 - year low, so the downside space is limited [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 116,500 yuan/ton and closed at 117,260 yuan/ton, a 0.97% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 176,566 (+60,128) lots, and the open interest was 128,268 (-12,947) lots. The price continued to rebound due to multiple macro - level positive factors, including the Fed's dovish signal, progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the domestic central bank's continuous net injection [1] - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mostly in a wait - and - see state, with prices remaining stable. Philippine mines are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream nickel - iron prices are weak, squeezing iron - mill profits, so they are cautious about purchasing nickel ore. Some iron mills are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium is mainly at +26, with a range of +25 - 26. Overall, domestic trade prices of nickel ore will decline [1] - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,100 yuan/ton, a 1,300 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Due to the continuous rise in futures prices, the overall trading of refined nickel is average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands are stable or declining. Jinchuan nickel's premium changes by 200 yuan/ton to 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changes by - 100 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,944 (294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,520 (1038) tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 26, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,410 yuan/ton and closed at 12,455 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,599 (+1,313) lots, and the open interest was 131,410 (-4,171) lots. The price rebounded by 0.65% and closed above the 5 - day moving average but below the 20 - day moving average, with a weak medium - term trend. The recent rebound is driven by nickel prices and improved macro - level liquidity expectations, but the fundamental situation of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and high inventory and cost collapse are still the main factors suppressing prices [2][3] - **Spot**: Affected by the continuous rebound of futures prices, spot trading has significantly improved today, and the quotes have slightly increased. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,650 (+25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 884.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, as the current price has reached a 5 - year low, the downward space is relatively limited [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously decreasing cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation. Considering the current price is at a historical low, further decline is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 115,880 yuan/ton and closed at 116,160 yuan/ton, a 0.75% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 116,438 (-32,096) lots, and the open interest was 141,215 (-6,339) lots. The contract continued to rebound and closed slightly higher, but the trading volume decreased, indicating market hesitation. Macro factors such as positive signals from China - US leadership communication and dovish signals from Fed officials supported nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments are unstable, and the latest tender prices have slightly declined but remain high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price has dropped to 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch), leading to a lack of market confidence. Iron plants' profits are affected, and they are cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some iron plants are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price has dropped by 0.12 - 0.2 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 121,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,070 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to previous price drops and production cuts by some enterprises, spot supply has tightened, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 4,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,785 (-294) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (0) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,405 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,286 (+2,692) lots, and the open interest was 147,237 (-4,171) lots. The contract rose slightly, basically following the trend of Shanghai nickel. The trading volume increased slightly, and market activity improved. Macro factors such as the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and China's issuance of 1 trillion yuan in national bonds and early release of local bond quotas boosted market confidence and stainless - steel prices [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, the spot market has recovered, with some purchasing demand released and increased market transactions. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,625 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,650 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 340 - 490 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 887.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Copper - Copper prices showed weak fluctuations overnight, influenced by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts in December due to concerns over a deteriorating job market [1] - LME copper inventory increased by 725 tons to 155,750 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 5,905 tons to 371,391 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 5,974 tons to 43,816 tons [1] - Overall demand for copper is slowly recovering, with downstream acceptance improving, but high global visible inventory levels are constraining future price movements [1] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.75% to $14,730 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 0.69% to 116,100 CNY per ton [2] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 468 tons to 253,482 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 708 tons to 34,493 tons [2] - The nickel market is under pressure due to weak demand in the stainless steel sector, despite tight raw material supply in the new energy industry [2] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy - Alumina prices showed slight strength, with AO2601 closing at 2,733 CNY per ton, a 0.07% increase [3] - SHFE aluminum prices experienced a slight decline, with AL2512 closing at 21,405 CNY per ton, up 0.12% [3] - The aluminum market is facing pressure from inventory buildup and cautious macroeconomic sentiment, despite some recovery in aluminum ingot outflows [3] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 8,940 CNY per ton, down 1% [4] - Polysilicon prices increased, with the main contract closing at 53,315 CNY per ton, a 1.15% rise [4] - The market for polysilicon is under pressure due to reduced orders for silicon wafers, although there is a strong intent to maintain prices for silicon materials [5] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 2.88% to 90,480 CNY per ton, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping by 150 CNY per ton to 92,150 CNY per ton [6] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 585 tons to 22,130 tons, with significant contributions from spodumene and brine sources [6] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for 14 consecutive weeks, but the pace of inventory reduction is slowing, indicating potential price risks in the short term [6]

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate has hit a trading limit down, indicating a significant market correction driven by policy intervention and fundamental market dynamics [3][4]. - Regulatory measures by the Guangxi Futures Exchange aim to prevent excessive speculation that could harm the real economy, suggesting that the market is being cooled rather than ending [3][4]. - The volatility in the lithium carbonate market reflects a disconnect between bullish price expectations and current market realities, highlighting the speculative nature of recent trading [4][5]. Group 2: Methanol Market Outlook - The 05 contract for methanol is highlighted as a potential opportunity due to expected improvements in the fundamental market conditions [7]. - Key factors influencing the methanol market include potential gas supply restrictions from Iran, domestic supply reductions, and a possible demand recovery from MTO (Methanol-to-Olefin) operations [8][9][10]. - The market sentiment is expected to shift towards a de-stocking phase starting mid-December, which could positively impact prices [12][20]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Market - A recent conference involving major players in the organic silicon industry has led to a coordinated reduction in production, effective from December 1, which is expected to alleviate supply pressures on upstream industrial silicon [21][23]. - The price of DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) has increased significantly, reflecting the industry's efforts to stabilize prices amid long-term losses and supply-demand imbalances [23]. - The market's quick response to the news indicates a strong sentiment towards self-regulation within the industry, which could bolster confidence moving forward [23]. Group 4: Nickel Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend, breaking through key support levels, driven by persistent supply-demand imbalances and high inventory levels [29][30]. - The anticipated tightening of nickel supply has not materialized, leading to a bearish outlook as demand growth remains insufficient to absorb the excess supply [32][33]. - The market is expected to remain under pressure due to high inventories and a lack of significant demand recovery in the near term [33]. Group 5: Futures Market Overview - The futures market shows a clear divergence between bullish opportunities in certain commodities like iron ore and bearish trends in others like coal and agricultural products [46][49][55]. - The core logic driving these trends revolves around supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic policies, and seasonal factors affecting various commodities [48][54][57]. - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified approach while closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting strategies accordingly [58].