Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of WTI at $70.4/barrel is given. It is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits, and to position for the Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane - induced supply disruption season when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol's valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector [4]. - Urea's overall valuation is low, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6]. - For natural rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounds. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy with quick entry and exit is recommended, and a long - short spread trading between RU2601 and RU2509 can be considered [10]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - For benzene - ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost side to fluctuate upward [13]. - For polyethylene, the price in the short - term will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price in July is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [16]. - For PX, it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices [19]. - For PTA, it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.45, a 0.70% decline, at $63.82; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.55, an 0.82% decline, at $66.41; INE main crude oil futures closed down 4.90 yuan, a 0.97% decline, at 501 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.26 million barrels to 13.01 million barrels, a 2.02% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.22 million barrels to 8.67 million barrels, a 2.54% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.65 million barrels to 26.32 million barrels, a 6.69% increase; total refined oil inventories increased by 2.12 million barrels to 48.00 million barrels, a 4.63% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 7, the 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 2388 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 6 [4]. - **Analysis**: Domestic methanol production resumed its decline this week, but corporate profits remained high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are increasing faster due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO units. Inland inventories are decreasing due to olefin procurement, with relatively low pressure [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 7, the 09 contract fell 13 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of + 42 [6]. - **Analysis**: Domestic urea production continued to decline, and corporate profits were still at a low level but are expected to bottom out and rebound. Overall supply is relatively abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and subsequent demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Current domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then fluctuated [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually turns upward in the second half of the year. Bears think that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire factories have inventory pressure [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 5 yuan to 5046 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4910 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 136 (- 5) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 126 (+ 12) yuan/ton [10]. - **Analysis**: The cost of calcium carbide increased, the overall operating rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05%. The downstream operating rate was 42.1%, up 0.2%. Factory inventories were 34.5 (+ 1.2) million tons, and social inventories were 72.2 (+ 3.9) million tons. The overall situation is strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [10]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices of benzene - ethylene rose, and the basis strengthened [12]. - **Analysis**: The macro - market sentiment is good, and there is still support on the cost side. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the operating rate of benzene - ethylene continues to rise. Port inventories are decreasing significantly, and the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still cost support. The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trade inventories are at a high level and have a weak supporting effect on prices. In August, there is a large planned production capacity release. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. In August, there is only a small planned production capacity release. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price in July is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 38 yuan to 6756 yuan, and PX CFR fell 4 dollars to 840 dollars. The basis was 152 (- 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 46 (- 4) yuan [18]. - **Analysis**: PX operating rates in China and Asia increased. Some PTA units had short - term maintenance, but PTA inventories are low, and the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. New PTA units are being put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. The current valuation is at a neutral level [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 20 (+ 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38 (- 8) yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: The PTA operating rate increased. Downstream operating rates also increased slightly. Supply is expected to increase due to new unit launches, but demand from the polyester and terminal sectors is about to end the off - season. The inventory level is low, and the negative feedback pressure is small [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 18 yuan to 4396 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4486 yuan, the basis was 73 (- 7) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 (- 13) yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The production of ethylene glycol decreased slightly. Downstream operating rates increased slightly. Import arrivals are expected to increase, and port inventories are expected to gradually increase. The current valuation is relatively high compared to the same period, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken [21].

标普全球 大宗商品资讯表示，尽管全球避免了严重衰退，但更高的关税预计将在2025年显著放缓全球 原油需求增长。目前预测需求将增加63.5万桶/日，不到特朗普4月宣布关税前预估的130万桶/日的一 半。下调预期的原因包括消费疲软。国际能源署（IEA）也警告称，如果形势恶化，主要增长中心可能 出现收缩。主要大宗商品贸易商也呼应了这一疲软前景。嘉能可上半年能源与炼钢煤贸易额同比大减 88%，而托克则警告称，在关税实施前的提前采购结束后，市场可能进一步放缓。标普指出，关税政策 的稳定性将是关键。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a stable and volatile trend after a round of rapid decline and full release of negative sentiment, with the price finding support at the 40 - and 60 - day moving averages [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the rebound of domestic coal futures offsets the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [6]. - The prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend under the dominance of bearish sentiment due to the decision of OPEC+ to continue significant production expansion in September [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 63.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons or 1.35% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.40%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.47% [9]. - As of August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 9.22 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a weekly decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.76 percentage points [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity [9]. - In July 2025, China's logistics prosperity index (LPI) was 50.5%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.3 percentage points but still in the expansion range [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10] Methanol - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a slight weekly increase of 0.26%, a monthly decrease of 3.28%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.46%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9302 million tons, a weekly increase of 31,300 tons, a significant monthly decrease of 56,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 312,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.55%, a slight weekly increase of 0.59%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.72%, a slight weekly increase of 0.41%; the acetic acid operating rate was 88.79%, a weekly decrease of 4.16%; the MTBE operating rate was 54.84%, a weekly decrease of 2.32% [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.72%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a monthly decrease of 2.67 percentage points. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 87 yuan/ton, a significant weekly increase of 249 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 21 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 650,300 tons, a significant weekly increase of 63,200 tons, a significant monthly increase of 150,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 158,000 tons. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 293,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 30,900 tons, a significant monthly decrease of 63,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 142,100 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a weekly decrease of 5 and a decrease of 72 compared to the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 30,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year decrease of 116,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a significant weekly decrease of 3.029 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.659 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.006 million barrels, a weekly increase of 453,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a weekly increase of 235,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 96.9%, a weekly increase of 1.5 percentage points, a monthly increase of 2.2 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.4 percentage points [13] - As of July 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 156,023 contracts, a weekly increase of 2,692 contracts and a significant decrease of 49,956 contracts or 24.25% compared to the June average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 249,973 contracts, a significant weekly increase of 22,728 contracts and a significant increase of 63,690 contracts or 34.19% compared to the June average [14] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,500 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 14,550 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,420 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,388 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | +32 yuan/ton | +8 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 475.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.5 yuan/barrel | 501.0 yuan/barrel | - 4.9 yuan/barrel | - 25.6 yuan/barrel | +4.4 yuan/barrel | [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The long - term view on oil prices is bearish, with Brent expected to trade in the range of $66.5 - 68 per barrel in the short term. The overall supply - demand pressure for plastics and PP remains large, and their prices are expected to be weak and volatile. PVC and caustic soda also face supply - demand pressure, and short positions are recommended. For some products like fuel oil, a wait - and - see approach is advised, while for others, different trading strategies such as short - selling at high prices are proposed according to their supply - demand situations [2][22][24] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 contract closed at $64.35, down $0.81 per barrel (-1.24%); Brent2510 contract closed at $66.89, down $0.75 per barrel (-1.11%); SC main contract 2509 fell 4.9 to 504.2 yuan per barrel, and dropped 6.2 to 498 yuan per barrel in the night session. The Brent main - second line spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: US - Russia negotiations are progressing, and there is uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts. Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and may impose further tariffs on China. Some Fed officials believe in interest rate cuts due to economic and labor market conditions. EIA data shows a decline in US crude and refined product inventories [1][2] - **Logic Analysis**: Long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing risk of US economic weakness and sufficient supply elasticity, with an expectation of future supply - demand surplus. Brent is expected to trade in the $66.5 - 68 per barrel range in the short term [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Gasoline crack spread is weak, diesel crack spread is stable; Options: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3543 points (+0.40%) in the night session, BU2512 closed at 3448 points (+0.207%). On August 6, asphalt spot prices were 3530 - 3970 in Shandong, 3650 - 3800 in East China, and 3520 - 3600 in South China. The benchmark prices of refined products in Shandong changed, with 92 gasoline down 17 to 7727 yuan per ton, 0 diesel down 14 to 6563 yuan per ton, and 3B petroleum coke up 60 to 2880 yuan per ton [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices fell 5 yuan per ton due to slow demand release, sufficient supply, and weak market confidence. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable due to rainy weather and falling oil prices. In South China, prices were stable with some trade - offs between weak demand and reduced local supply [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and near - term demand is mediocre. The asphalt market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand release in the second half of the year. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term and decline in the medium term. Asphalt prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the main BU contract trading in the 3500 - 3650 range [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: Wait - and - see [5] 3. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2836 (+0.60%) in the night session, LU10 closed at 3558 (+0.65%). In the Singapore paper market, high - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 5.0 to 5.3 dollars per ton, and low - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 4.3 to 3.5 dollars per ton [5] - **Related News**: Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans to shut down its RFCC unit for 15 - day maintenance starting from August 10. On August 6, there were 3 transactions of high - sulfur fuel oil 380 in the Singapore spot window, and no transactions for high - sulfur fuel oil 180 and low - sulfur fuel oil [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced. Demand for high - sulfur feedstock is increasing, while seasonal power - generation demand is declining. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, and downstream demand lacks a specific driver [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - economic disturbances; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see, pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot [8] 4. PX (Para - xylene) - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6794 (+60/+0.89%), and remained unchanged in the night session. The September MOPJ was estimated at $579 per ton CFR. PX prices rose to $844 per ton, up $5 from the previous day. Two September Asian spot transactions were at 848 and 849 respectively. The PXN was $265 per ton, up $6 per ton [8][9] - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales rate of 71% by 3:00 pm [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to return in August as some refineries resume production or increase their loads. Downstream PTA plants are reducing production, and the overall order volume is weak, so PX prices are expected to face pressure [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation [10] 5. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+42/+0.90%), and dropped 10 to 4714 (-0.21%) in the night session. In the spot market, August - end contracts were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, with a price negotiation range of 4650 - 4720. The September - mid contracts were traded at par with the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 09 - 21 [10] - **Related News**: Similar to PX, the sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed certain trends. A South China PTA factory with a total capacity of 235 million tons cut production by 20% [10] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is decreasing as some PTA plants cut production or plan maintenance. Downstream demand lacks upward momentum, so PTA prices are expected to face pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [11][12] 6. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4414 (+15/+0.34%), and rose 17 to 4431 (+0.39%) in the night session. The current spot basis was a premium of 79 - 82 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4493 - 4496 yuan per ton. The September - end futures basis was a premium of 76 - 78 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4490 - 4492 yuan per ton [13] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were as described before. A 90 - million - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore is under maintenance for about 45 days, and a 55 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down again without a clear restart time [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased recently. Supply is expected to increase as some plants restart or postpone their maintenance. The supply - demand balance is expected to weaken as domestic and foreign plants resume production [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [13][14] 7. Short - fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 main contract closed at 6414 (+32/+0.50%) during the day session, and dropped 14 to 6400 (-0.22%) in the night session. In the spot market, the prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were stable, and downstream customers purchased on - demand [14][15] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed similar trends [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber futures rebounded with raw materials. The processing fee stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16] 8. PR (Bottle - chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 main contract closed at 5936 (+24/+0.41%), and dropped 2 to 5934 (-0.03%) in the night session. In the spot market, the polyester bottle - chip market had good transactions, with some plants having large - volume sales. August - October orders were mostly traded at 5870 - 5970 yuan per ton ex - factory [16] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes were mostly stable, with some slightly increasing [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The bottle - chip futures rose with polyester raw material futures. The processing fee rebounded and stabilized. Most major plants will maintain their production cuts in August, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16][17] 9. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6246 (+26/+0.42%) during the day session, and rose 24 to 6270 (+0.38%) in the night session. EB2509 main contract closed at 7285 (+3/+0.04%) during the day session, and rose 29 to 7314 (+0.40%) in the night session. In the spot market, the negotiation range of pure benzene in East China was 6030 - 6060 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The negotiation ranges of styrene in Jiangsu were 7310 - 7380 for spot, 7360 - 7405 for August - end, and 7385 - 7435 for September - end [18] - **Related News**: On August 6, 2025, the port trade inventory of pure benzene in East China was 15.2 million tons, down 1 million tons from July 30 (-6.17%), and up 204% year - on - year. The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased by 1.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons. A 30 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Tangshan Xuyang restarted on August 6, and an 80 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Guangdong Jieyang plans to shut down for two - week maintenance starting from September 5. A 67 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Jingbosidarei started producing qualified products on August 6 and is operating at a stable load [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene supply is expected to be in a relatively balanced state, with a de - stocking expectation in the third quarter. Styrene supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Long pure benzene, short styrene; Options: Sell both call and put options [21] 10. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices mostly rose slightly. In the PP spot market, the prices in different regions had different changes [21] - **Related News**: On August 6, the PE maintenance ratio was 8.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, and the linear production ratio was 40.3%, down 1.3 percentage points. The PP maintenance ratio was 15.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, and the拉丝 production ratio was 33.9%, up 4 percentage points [21] - **Logic Analysis**: New polyolefin capacities are being put into production, and there is still capacity - expansion pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and there is no obvious factor to improve the supply - demand situation. So, the overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new plant start - ups and macro - policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [22] 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: In the PVC spot market, prices rose, but the trading was light. In the caustic soda spot market, the prices in different regions were mostly stable [22] - **Related News**: A Shandong alumina factory lowered the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan per ton. Jinling's caustic soda prices decreased [24] - **Logic Analysis**: For PVC, the supply is expected to increase as new plants are planned to start production, and the demand is weak, so the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. For caustic soda, the supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be bearish [24][25] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions for both PVC and caustic soda, and pay attention to subsequent policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [25][26] 12. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1271 yuan per ton (+18/1.4%), and dropped 10 to 1261 (-0.8%) in the night session. The SA9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [26] - **Related News**: As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 185.18 million tons, up 5.60 million tons (+3.12%) from the previous Thursday. Some plants had production changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash futures price strengthened due to the strong coking coal futures price and rising coal prices. The weekly production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand is weak, but the price is expected to be supported by cost factors in the second half of the year [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile and bullish; Arbitrage: Consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [27][28] 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1083 yuan per ton (+6/0.56%), and dropped 8 to 1075 (-0.74%) in the night session. The 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [28] - **Related News**: The domestic float - glass market prices were stable or decreased, and the trading was lackluster [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The glass futures price was affected by the strong coking coal futures price. The factory's sales weakened, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be determined by fundamentals in the second half of the year, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile; Arbitrage: Take profit on the glass 9 - 1 reverse spread, and consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [31] 14. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2395 (-2/-0.08%) after night - session trading. In the spot market, the prices in different regions varied [31] - **Related News**: As of August

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on price fluctuations in the energy and black upstream sectors, as well as policy implementation in high - tech and transportation infrastructure industries [1][2]. - It also provides an overview of the current situation in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream of different industries, including price changes,开工率, and sales volume [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: High - temperature and high - humidity weather has led to a continuous increase in the national power consumption level. From August 4th to 6th, the power load in the operating area of the State Grid Corporation reached a record high of 1.233 billion kilowatts, an increase of 53 million kilowatts compared to last year's peak of 1.18 billion kilowatts. Shanghai has issued a development plan for the embodied intelligence industry, aiming to achieve more than 20 core algorithm and technology breakthroughs by 2027, with the core industry scale exceeding 50 billion yuan [1]. - **Service Industry**: Three departments including the Ministry of Transport have issued a plan for the new round of rural road improvement, aiming to complete 300,000 kilometers of new and reconstructed rural roads by 2027 [2]. 3.2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International oil prices have dropped significantly recently. Egg prices and glass prices have also declined [3]. - **Mid - stream**: The operating rate of PTA has decreased, while that of pig products has increased slightly [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a three - year low. Domestic film box office has increased during the summer vacation [3]. 3.3. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The report provides credit spread data for various industries as of August 7th, showing different trends in each industry's credit spreads compared to the previous year, the first quarter, one month ago, and last week [46]. 3.4. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The report presents price data for multiple industries as of August 6th, including agriculture, non - ferrous metals, black metals, non - metals, energy, chemicals, and real estate. Most prices have shown a downward trend, with some exceptions such as coal prices [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be watched while being vigilant against volatility jumps [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the early part of the week, the market's bets on Fed rate cuts decreased due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, and an increase in June PCE. However, the non - farm payrolls in July were below expectations, with significant downward revisions in May and June, and a rise in the unemployment rate under the backdrop of a three - month decline in the labor participation rate, increasing concerns about US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Attention should be paid to US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, August non - farm payrolls, and the selection of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director and Fed leadership changes [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The comprehensive PMI in July was still above the critical point. The progress of negotiations between the US and economies such as China and Mexico should be monitored [5]. - **Asset Views**: For major asset classes, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts, which is favorable for gold. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern persists, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on while being cautious of volatility jumps [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After events are settled, the crowding of funds is released. With insufficient incremental funds, the short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With upward - trending volatility, the short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Concerns include unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: As the US fundamentals weaken and the market returns to the logic of restarting the rate - cut cycle, precious metals are oscillating strongly. Concerns include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. Concerns include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: With disruptions in coking coal supply, the futures price shows a strong performance. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Iron Ore**: With a healthy fundamental situation, the price is oscillating. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and there is no expectation of price increases in the near future. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply disruptions continue, and the futures price has risen. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment has improved, and the futures price is strongly oscillatory. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The sentiment in the black chain is positive, and the futures price is strongly oscillatory. Concerns include cost prices and foreign quotes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are weak, and prices in Hubei are continuously decreasing. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Soda Ash**: Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and freight rates have declined. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, putting pressure on the copper price. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness from the Fed, less - than - expected recovery in domestic demand, and economic recession. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Alumina**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the alumina price is under oscillatory pressure. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price is oscillating. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Zinc**: With the rebound of black - series prices, the zinc price has slightly recovered. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Lead**: There is still support at the cost end, and the lead price is oscillating. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel inventory has exceeded 210,000 tons, and the nickel price is weakly oscillatory. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price has closed up. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Tin**: The market atmosphere has improved, and the tin price has slightly rebounded. Concerns include the expectation of Wa State's resumption of production and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating. Concerns include unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating. Concerns include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and the cost end dominates the rhythm. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Asphalt**: The pressure on the spot market has increased, and the high - valued asphalt price has finally declined. Concerns include unexpected demand. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. Concerns include crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures has weakened following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **Methanol**: The rebound of the coal end has had some impact, and methanol is oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea will oscillate in the short term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and the expectation in August has shifted to inventory accumulation. Concerns include the inflection point of port inventory accumulation and device recovery. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. Concerns include the maintenance rhythm of downstream PTA and seasonal changes in gasoline profits. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down briefly, and the processing fee is still under pressure. Concerns include the planned shutdown of mainstream devices and the intensity of polyester joint production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: The improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation for short - fiber. Concerns include the procurement rhythm and start - up of downstream yarn mills. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production cut scale in August will continue to exceed 20%, and the support below the processing fee has increased. Concerns include the future start - up of bottle chips. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. Concerns include oil prices and domestic macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PP**: The support from oil and coal still shows differences, and PP is oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and international macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Plastic**: There is a slight impact from the coal end, and plastic is oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and international macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is oscillating downward. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market is emerging, and caustic soda is running weakly. Concerns include market sentiment, start - up, and demand. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. 3.4 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, soybean oil was strong, and there is a strong expectation of a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Protein Meal**: During the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade disputes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. Concerns include less - than - expected demand, macro factors, and weather. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of production cuts has caused fluctuations, and the futures price has rebounded. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Rubber**: Positive macro factors have driven up the rubber price. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Tight raw material supply supports the futures price. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Pulp**: The weak trend of the futures price remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Cotton**: The impact of macro factors has weakened, and cotton price trading has returned to fundamentals. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Sugar**: The marginal supply pressure has increased, and the sugar price is under downward pressure. Concerns include imports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Log**: The fundamentals have changed little, and it should be treated within a range. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has significantly subsided, and the market may shift to a weaker trend dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals. For precious metals, maintain a buy - on - dip strategy during the oscillation. Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly [2][3] - The stock market shows a certain sector rotation, and it is advisable to increase allocations in technology - growth and low - position consumption sectors. The bond market is in a state of shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the entry timing of curve steepening [49][50] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent's October contract down 1.06%. The actual implementation of US sanctions on Russia may be less than expected, and the post - peak season supply - demand outlook is relatively loose. The market may turn to a weaker trend [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and the high - sulfur resources are relatively supported. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils may shrink [22] - **Asphalt**: The August production plan is lower than that in July, but actual production may exceed expectations. Supply increase space is neutral, demand is weak but has repair expectations, and low inventory supports prices [23][24] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. Supply is relatively loose, and the price is in a weak oscillation [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals oscillated. Due to concerns about the Fed's independence, the US economic outlook, and rising interest - rate cut expectations, the US dollar remained weak, and gold tested the upper - limit resistance of the three - month range. Maintain a buy - on - dip strategy [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated around the MA60 moving average. There is no obvious market trend. LME copper may decline to $9500, and short positions are recommended [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Aluminum ingots have been accumulating inventory for two weeks, but aluminum rod production has rebounded. The price is in short - term oscillation with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The black market's short - selling atmosphere is insufficient. Shanghai zinc may have a phased rebound, but fundamentally, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel is in the late stage of a rebound. It is recommended to actively enter short positions [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin retraced its gains. It is expected to be in an oscillating market, and high - position short positions should be closed [11] - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: Their prices have risen significantly. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [19][20] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Their prices are affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, with large short - term volatilities. Coke is bullish in the short term, and the downside space for coking coal is relatively small [17][18] - **Ferroalloys and Related Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum supply is tight, and it has certain resilience compared to aluminum prices [6] - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, the inventory is increasing, and the market is in surplus. The price is under pressure but has limited downside space [7] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market's bullish sentiment has cooled. Short - term supply and demand are loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [26] - **Methanol**: The coastal olefin开工 is not high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. In the short term, the market is weak, while in the long term, attention should be paid to the peak season demand [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The price has rebounded slightly. There is an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band trading [28] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The expected output of a new device may have a negative impact. The supply - demand fundamentals provide weak support [29] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene demand is boosted, and supply is reduced, supporting the price. Polyethylene has an expected increase in short - term output, and the supply - demand is increasing. Polypropylene has stable prices, but downstream demand is weak [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating, with cost support increasing and supply rising. Caustic soda is oscillating weakly, and the long - term supply pressure is high [30] - **PX & PTA**: They rebounded due to device production reduction. If PTA production cuts increase, PX demand may decline. Attention should be paid to PTA's valuation repair [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price rebounded, and there is an expectation of increased demand in the future [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are oscillating weakly, and domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level. Before the tariff issue is clear, the market is in oscillation [37] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Maintain a buy - on - dip strategy. There are uncertainties in soybean oil supply, and palm oil may enter a production - reduction cycle [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed futures price is under short - term pressure. The rapeseed market is in short - term oscillation [39] - **Soybean No.1**: There will be a policy - based auction of domestic soybeans. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is narrowing [40] - **Corn**: US corn prices are falling, and domestic corn futures are running weakly. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest for new - season corn [41] - **Hogs**: The spot price is weak, and the output in the fourth quarter is expected to increase [42] - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures market suggests a reverse - spread strategy [43] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton demand is weak. The new - season Xinjiang cotton has a strong production - increase expectation [44] - **Sugar**: US sugar is trending downward, and the domestic sugar market is expected to be in oscillation [45] - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the price of early - maturing apples and new - season production estimates [46] Others - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is accelerating its decline, and market pessimism may intensify [21] - **Stock Index**: The stock market shows an incremental upward trend, with small - and micro - cap stocks leading the rise. It is advisable to increase allocations in technology - growth and low - position consumption sectors [49] - **Bond**: The bond market is in shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the entry timing of curve steepening [50]

Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Current oil price decline is driven by OPEC+ production increase, and supply-demand logic will dominate oil price trends in the short term. Suggest trading in a band, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Consider capturing volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: In the short term, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The BZ2603 contract should follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [5]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider closing short positions in EB09 and look for opportunities to short at high prices [5]. - **Methanol**: MA09 is expected to accumulate inventory, while MA01 has seasonal demand and potential supply reduction from Iranian plants. Consider buying MA01 at low prices [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is in a weak state. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August. Consider holding short positions at high prices [40]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand. Future prices are likely to continue to decline [40]. - **Polyolefins**: In August, there is pressure on inventory accumulation. However, there is potential for restocking in the seasonal peak season. Consider closing short positions at 7200 - 7300 and continue to hold LP01 [44]. - **Urea**: In the short term, the urea market is dominated by bullish sentiment. There is a game between positive factors such as the Indian tender and negative factors such as the off - peak agricultural demand [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets are all affected by supply - demand relationships and oil prices. They are expected to fluctuate in certain ranges, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [56]. Summaries by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 7, Brent was at $66.92, WTI at $64.41, and SC at 502.10 yuan/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS decreased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 and SC M1 - M3 increased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of August 1, US crude oil production was 1328.4万桶/日, refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, and commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 302.9万桶 [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of pure benzene and related products changed. For example, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.9%. Styrene prices also had minor fluctuations [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the开工 rates of related industries had different changes [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, MA2601 closed at 2503, MA2509 at 2396. The MA91 spread decreased by 7.00% [28]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 9.50%, while port inventory increased by 14.48% [29]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged, and the price of PVC in East China increased slightly [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's开工率 increased, while the PVC total开工率 decreased. The demand for caustic soda and PVC downstream industries was weak [38][39][40]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, L2601 closed at 7382, PP2601 at 7120. Some spreads such as L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed [44]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and the开工 rates of related devices decreased [44]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of urea in various regions increased slightly. The futures prices of different contracts decreased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased slightly, and factory inventory decreased by 3.24% [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of downstream polyester products had different changes [56]. - **开工率**: The开工 rates of PX, PTA, and other industries had different degrees of change [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of volatility, and an intraday view of weak volatility [1][5] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - frame Views - Short - term: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1] - Medium - term: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1] - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is weakly volatile, and the reference view is a weak run [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - Supply side: Eight major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September this year. Although OPEC+ started to relax voluntary production cuts in April, the production increase has not reached the target. OPEC's June production increased by 349,000 barrels per day, and the 8 countries in the agreement's production - increase period increased production by 394,000 barrels per day [5] - Macro - environment: Macro sentiment has weakened due to Trump's proposed tariff collection in the US, and supply pressure is prominent. Against this backdrop, on Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.23% lower at 498.0 yuan per barrel [5] 3.3 Market Performance and Forecast - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.23% lower at 498.0 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [5]