Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the real estate sector, indicating low financial risk and persistent economic pressure for 2026, with no expectation of systemic financial risks [1][61]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is expected to provide a favorable environment in 2026, continuing the trends observed in 2025, with a focus on financial stability [1][61]. - Key companies to watch include: 1) Development: A-Shares - China Vanke, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Gemdale; H-Shares - China Overseas Land & Investment 2) Residential and Commercial: Longfor Group 3) Property Management: Onewo, China Resources Mixc, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, China Merchants Property, ChongQing New DaZheng 4) Cultural and Tourism: Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town [1][61]. Summary by Sections Investment Trends - In 2025, the cumulative development investment decreased by 15.9% compared to 2024, with a significant drop in new construction area by 20.5% and sales value by 11.1% [5][10]. - The report highlights a monthly decline in development investment of 31.4%, new construction area by 27.7%, and sales value by 26.1% [61][70]. Market Dynamics - The unsold area indicator suggests eased pressure on developers, with expectations of reduced real estate investment continuing into 2026 [62][70]. - The report indicates that the negative contribution of real estate to the macro economy may stabilize, with a projected investment decrease of approximately 1.6 trillion RMB in 2025 compared to 2024 [63][72]. Financial Sources - Total funding sources for real estate reached 8.51 trillion RMB in 2025, reflecting an 11.9% year-on-year decline [43][47]. - Domestic loans accounted for 15.44% of funding sources, with a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year [47][50].

Group 1 - The core analysis focuses on the supply-demand contradiction, particularly in the midstream sector, where the demand-investment growth differential has increased to 7.6% in November, up from 6.4% in the previous month, indicating a potential shift from "strong supply, weak demand" to "weak supply, strong demand" [1][4][30] - The methodology involves calculating the difference between demand growth and investment growth, with a positive differential suggesting that supply-demand contradictions are easing, which may lead to price stabilization in the future [3][32] - Current observations indicate that while midstream demand growth has slightly decreased to 8.9% in November from 9.3% in October, midstream investment growth has also declined to 1.3%, resulting in a continued upward trend in the demand-investment growth differential since May 2024 [4][33] Group 2 - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth differential is likely to remain positive, with expectations for the midstream Producer Price Index (PPI) to stop declining and potentially rise in 2026 [2][31] - In November, the midstream PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.04%, marking the first positive change since June 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in midstream profitability [5][34] - The analysis of November's economic data reveals a weakening supply side, with industrial production growth at 4.8% and service sector production index at 4.2%, while consumer demand and investment remain weak [43][45] Group 3 - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with property sales area down 17.3% year-on-year in November, and real estate investment declining by 30.3% [20][26] - Employment remains stable, with the urban survey unemployment rate holding steady at 5.1% in November, indicating a relatively stable labor market despite economic pressures [43][45] - Consumer retail sales growth has slowed to 1.3% in November, down from 2.9% in October, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer spending [17][43]

Core Viewpoint - The article aims to assist taxpayers in understanding tax policies and procedures, specifically focusing on the key points for filling out the VAT deduction form for advanced manufacturing industries [1]. Group 1: VAT Deduction Form Filling Guidelines - Taxpayers eligible for the additional deduction policy should fill out lines 6 to 8 of the form, reflecting their deduction situation [2]. - The first column "Beginning Balance" should include the previous period's ending balance of the additional deduction amount, which is zero for first-time applicants [3]. - The second column "Current Period Amount" should reflect the additional deduction amount calculated at 5% of the deductible input VAT for the current period [3]. - For enterprises engaged in export business, the "Current Period Amount" will prompt a section to fill in the input VAT corresponding to export business, which cannot be deducted [5]. - The third column "Current Period Adjustment Amount" should be filled with 5% of the amount of input VAT that is reversed during the current period [6]. - The "Current Period Deductible Amount" is calculated as "Beginning Balance" + "Current Period Amount" - "Current Period Adjustment Amount" [8]. - The "Actual Deductible Amount" for the current period is determined based on whether the "Current Period Deductible Amount" is greater than or equal to zero, with two specific scenarios outlined for filling this out [10][11]. - The ending balance is calculated as "Current Period Deductible Amount" - "Actual Deductible Amount," which reflects the remaining additional deduction amount to be carried over to the next period [13]. Group 2: Tax Filing Extensions - Taxpayers can apply for an extension of tax filing under unforeseen circumstances such as natural disasters or public health emergencies that prevent timely filing [18]. - Extensions may also be granted for special financial processing reasons when accounting is not completed, making it difficult to calculate taxable amounts [18]. Group 3: R&D Expense Deduction Policy - Certain industries, including real estate, are not eligible for the additional deduction policy for R&D expenses, as specified by tax regulations [20]. - An example illustrates that a construction company investing in energy-saving technology cannot benefit from the R&D expense deduction due to its classification in the real estate sector [20].

Valuation of Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) and Hang Seng Index (HSI) are key indicators of market valuation[8][12] - The Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTECH) reflects the valuation trends in the tech sector[16][18] Industry Valuation Levels - The PE (TTM) valuation shows that the utilities sector is undervalued, with a percentile below 20%[23] - Consumer discretionary, consumer staples, healthcare, information technology, and utilities are below the 50th percentile in PE valuation[23] - High valuation sectors (above 50%) include energy, materials, industrials, financials, and telecommunications[23] - No sectors are currently undervalued based on PB (LF) valuation, with consumer staples, information technology, utilities, and real estate below the 50th percentile[27] - Energy, materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, and telecommunications are above the 50th percentile in PB valuation[27] AH Share Premium/Discount Levels - The Hang Seng AH Share Premium Index shows fluctuations in premium levels over time, with historical averages and standard deviations noted[33]

Economic Overview - The national economy in November 2025 showed characteristics of "stable production, differentiated consumption, and pressured investment" with industrial production recovering to normal levels after holiday disruptions[8] - The industrial added value in November grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal slowdown in growth[10] - Fixed asset investment from January to November decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with November's monthly growth rate at -12.0%, although this was a slight improvement from the previous month[30] Production Insights - New industries continue to show resilience, with automotive manufacturing and transportation equipment leading in production growth, while traditional sectors face challenges[11] - The production index for services grew by 4.2% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from October, reflecting seasonal adjustments post-holiday[14] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in November grew by only 1.3% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, with large-scale retail sales dropping by 2.0%[20] - The promotional season's impact was limited, with online retail growth slowing from 8.1% to 5.4%, indicating weaker consumer demand[23] Investment Dynamics - Manufacturing investment showed signs of marginal improvement, particularly in high-tech sectors, despite an overall negative growth trend[31] - Real estate investment remains under pressure, with sales area and sales value down by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting ongoing market adjustments[34] Risk Factors - External uncertainties are increasing, and domestic demand may decline more than expected, posing risks to economic stability[36]

文|小方 来源|博望财经 2025年12月12日，越牛新闻发布落款为"绍兴市帮扶祥源控股集团工作组"的"公告"，其中提及"为稳妥有序处置相关风险，维护投资者合法权益，经研究 决定，绍兴市组建帮扶祥源控股集团工作组，即日起进驻企业。" 图片来源：越牛新闻官网截图 据公开资料，祥源控股管理层披露，祥源控股当前资产总额约600亿元，负债规模约为400亿元。 业内人士认为，在文旅和地产板块持续投入的背景下，股权质押以及外部融资能力下降，共同推高了流动性压力。 01 三家上市公司集体火速信披背后 12月7日晚，"祥源系"旗下上市公司祥源文旅、交建股份与海昌海洋公园相继发布了相关公告，公开回应市场关注的祥源控股集团逾期兑付事件。其中， 祥源文旅在公告表示，"在某平台发行的涉及与祥源控股地产合作项目的金融产品存在部分逾期兑付情形，祥源控股、公司实际控制人就上述兑付义务承 担连带保证责任。祥源控股及公司实际控制人正与相关方就逾期兑付的具体情况进行沟通处理。" 图片来源：祥源文旅相关公告 其在公告中进一步提及，"本次事件涉及的金融产品与祥源文旅及其参、控股子公司均无关，祥源文旅不承担任何兑付及担保义务，公司亦未为任何金融 理财 ...

美联储重量级官员称货币政策已为明年做好充分准备，经济增速料将加快。市场等待周二非农就业数据 公布。 隔夜要点 l 美国华尔街股市周一收跌，投资者为本周晚些时候的一系列经济数据做准备，同时评估有关美联储主 席候选人的报导和政策制定者发言。美元兑日圆走低，本周央行决策和美国数据密集，可能会对美联储 的近期政策前景产生影响。油价下跌，投资者评估美国与委内瑞拉紧张局势升级造成的干扰、供应过剩 担忧以及俄罗斯与乌克兰潜在和平协议的影响。现货金回吐盘中涨幅收平，此前美国官员与乌克兰总统 泽连斯基旨在结束战争的重要会谈取得进展。 | 股市指数 | 收报 | | 日变动% 年初至今变动% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23057.41 | (0.59) | 19.40 | | 标普500指数 | 6816.51 | (0.16) | 15.89 | | 道琼斯工业均指 | 48416.56 | (0.09) | 13.80 | | 恒生指数 | 25628.88 | (1.34) | 27.76 | | 上证综指 | 3867.92 | (0.55) | 15.40 | | 利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the current valuation levels of the A-share market, indicating that the market is in a relatively high valuation zone, with specific attention to the Buffett Indicator and various PE and PB ratios across different indices and sectors [6][24]. Valuation Indicators - The current Buffett Indicator for the A-share market is 87.95%, which is above the safe zone, indicating a relatively high market valuation [6][25]. - Major broad market indices have PE ratios (TTM) exceeding 20%, with specific indices like the Shenzhen Component Index at 15.89, Shanghai Composite Index at 17.09, and ChiNext Index at 22.88, all reflecting high valuation percentiles [7][28]. - The PE valuation percentiles for various indices are notably high, with the ChiNext Index at 95.77% and the Shanghai Composite Index at 91.36%, suggesting caution in investment decisions [7][12]. Sector Valuation Levels - Non-bank financials and food & beverage sectors have PE valuations below the 20% percentile of the past decade, indicating potential investment opportunities [7]. - Sectors such as coal, telecommunications, electronics, and real estate show high PE valuation percentiles, ranging from 81.49% to 98.48%, which may pose investment risks [7][34]. Market Overview - The total market capitalization of listed companies in Shanghai is approximately 422.1 billion yuan, with an average PE ratio of 15.97 [20][21]. - The total market capitalization in Shenzhen is around 633.2 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 15.89, indicating a similar valuation trend [21][23]. Industry-Specific Valuations - The PE valuation levels for various industries show significant variation, with agriculture at 14.95, basic chemicals at 12.52, and steel at 5.69, indicating differing investment attractiveness across sectors [34]. - The banking sector has a low PE of 4.31, while the non-bank financial sector is at 12.87, suggesting a potential divergence in performance and valuation within the financial industry [34][37]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the need for careful evaluation of investment opportunities in the current high valuation environment, particularly focusing on sectors with lower PE ratios as potential areas for investment [7][34].

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 16 日 投资建议 相关研究报告 《稳地产，去库存；方向大于方式——中央经济工作 会议解读》（2025/12/12） 《房地产高质量发展方向聚焦完善制度、优化供 给、提升品质；城市更新将进入加速推进阶段—— "十五五"规划建议解读》（2025/11/3） 《受低基数以及一线城市新政影响，单月销售降幅 收窄；今年以来单月投资降幅持续扩大——房地产 行业 2025 年 9 月统计局数据点评》(2025/10/21) 《70 城新房房价环比跌幅扩大，二手房持平；时 隔一年再度出现所有城市二手房房价全部下跌的情 形——房地产行业 2025 年 9 月 70 个大中城市房价 数据点评》(2025/10/21) 《资产证券化系列报告二：从"证券化"到"通证 化"，RWA 重构资产投资逻辑》（2025/09/24） 《解密上海楼市：上海楼市周期性与结构性研究》 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 11 月 70 个大中城市房价数据点评 所有 70 城二手房房价连续三个月下跌；一线城市房价 环比跌幅扩大 国家统计局发布 2025 年 11 月份 70 个大中城市 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic operation in November continued to be stable, with the national industrial added value above designated size increasing by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month, and the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 4,389.8 billion yuan, increasing by 1.3% year - on - year and decreasing by 0.42% month - on - month [1] - China has issued the first batch of L3 - level conditional autonomous driving vehicle access permits, marking a key step in the commercialization of L3 - level autonomous driving [1] - The goal is to cultivate service outsourcing leading enterprises and build service outsourcing clusters by 2030, with further improvement in the development level of service outsourcing [1] Summary by Directory Upstream - Energy: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices dropped significantly. On December 15, the spot price of WTI crude oil was $57.4 per barrel, down 4.39%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was $61.1 per barrel, down 4.13%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3,652 yuan per ton, down 5.73% [2][36] - Agriculture: Palm oil prices declined slightly. On December 15, the spot price of palm oil was 8,504 yuan per ton, down 1.44% [2][36] Midstream - Chemical: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and polyester declined. On December 15, the spot price of PTA was 4,649.7 yuan per ton, down 0.81% [3][36] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants increased [3] - Infrastructure: The construction of road asphalt was in the off - season [3] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities increased [4] - Service: Flight frequencies and movie box office decreased [4]