Group 1: Economic Overview - Q3 2025 actual GDP growth was 4.8%, aligning with market expectations, while nominal GDP growth was 3.73%[9] - The gap between actual and nominal GDP growth narrowed from 1.26 percentage points in Q2 to 1.07 percentage points in Q3[10] - Capacity utilization rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 74.6% in Q3, indicating some progress in reducing "involution" effects[10] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trends - Market sentiment improved due to progress in China-US talks and the Fourth Plenary Session, leading to a volume-declining market rise[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.73%[8] - The technology sector led market performance, with small-cap indices showing a 4.16% increase[8] Group 3: Investment and Consumption Data - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5%, below the expected 0%[9] - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 13.4%[9] - Retail sales growth in September was 3%, slightly below the expected 3.1%[9] Group 4: International Market Dynamics - US CPI rose by 3% year-on-year in September, lower than market expectations, leading to a fully priced-in expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Fed[8] - The US dollar index fell by 0.38%, while the offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar[8] - Oil prices increased due to a reduction of 961,000 barrels in US EIA crude oil inventories[8]

Group 1 - The "Four Cities Joint Recruitment" event in Hainan successfully concluded, attracting over 8000 quality job positions from more than 280 employers, including government agencies, state-owned enterprises, and well-known private companies [2] - In Beijing, Hainan offered over 3000 quality job positions, with some positions offering annual salaries up to 840,000 yuan, covering various sectors such as tourism, education, research, finance, healthcare, and technology [2] - The event included a recruitment initiative for 580 postdoctoral talents in fields like marine science and biomedicine, supported by Hainan's "Postdoctoral Doubling Action" [2] Group 2 - In Chongqing, Hainan provided 686 job positions with a demand for 2298 candidates, focusing on the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors, with some positions offering monthly salaries close to 50,000 yuan [3] - The Chongqing recruitment event featured a significant proportion of high-education positions, with 37 companies offering 255 positions for master's degree holders and above [3] - The Hangzhou event had 52 employers participating, offering 2202 job positions across various industries, including internet, energy, and biopharmaceuticals [3] Group 3 - The Changsha event involved 83 employers providing 2687 job positions, with a notable focus on high-education roles, as 45 companies sought master's degree holders and above [4] - Several well-known Hainan universities participated in the recruitment, collectively offering 510 job positions [4] - The recruitment opportunities were well-received by students, with candidates expressing interest in positions that align with current industry trends and the development of Hainan's free trade port [4]

Core Insights - The international industrial investment cooperation event in Luoyang, held on October 23-24, aimed to deepen Sino-foreign cooperation and strengthen industrial connections, focusing on high-quality development in manufacturing, service industry expansion, and sovereign wealth funds [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - Over 100 renowned domestic and foreign enterprises, business associations, and financial institutions participated, transforming Luoyang into a "global industrial chain docking hall" [1] - The event was guided by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Henan Provincial Government, emphasizing practical cooperation and communication between multinational companies and the central region [1][2] Group 2: Regional Advantages - Henan's unique advantages include convenient transportation, significant market potential, favorable basic conditions, and an excellent policy environment, making it an attractive destination for multinational enterprises [2] - The region is a key starting point for the "Air Silk Road," with policies such as free trade zones and comprehensive bonded zones enhancing its appeal [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy package to encourage foreign investment, including a forthcoming updated directory for foreign investment industries and easier access for sovereign wealth fund investments [3] - Companies like Knorr have established a strong presence in Henan, showcasing successful collaborations in local infrastructure projects, indicating a trend of deepening partnerships [3][4] Group 4: Collaboration Outcomes - Eleven cooperation agreements were signed, focusing on capital cooperation, energy transition, and technological innovation, reflecting a commitment to building trust and expectations for future collaboration [3][4] - Companies expressed confidence in expanding their projects in Henan, with plans to replicate successful models in other areas of the province [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced overall fluctuations last week, with a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment. Southbound capital inflow has exceeded 500 billion HKD since the second half of the year, but the momentum for future inflows may slow down as the year-end assessment period approaches. [1] Market Overview - Southbound capital inflow has accumulated over 500 billion HKD since the second half of the year, indicating strong interest from mainland investors [1] - The sentiment indicators have returned to neutral, suggesting that the recent cooling in southbound capital is a new trend [1] - The current market presents a balanced risk profile, allowing high-risk tolerance investors to gradually build positions, although significant accumulation opportunities may still need to be awaited [1] Industry Insights - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to be released, but not all Hong Kong stocks will disclose their third-quarter results [1] - Current cycles in sectors such as metals, materials, and energy remain high in sentiment, while previously low sentiment sectors like consumer goods (textiles, food, social services) and high-dividend sectors (finance and cyclical dividends) are showing signs of bottoming out or upward revisions [1]

Core Points - The U.S. President Trump announced an additional 10% import tariff on Canadian goods, citing a misleading advertisement funded by the Ontario government that criticized U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - The advertisement, which quoted former President Reagan, claimed tariffs harm American workers and consumers, leading to a trade war [1] - Following the announcement, Canadian officials expressed dissatisfaction, and Ontario's Premier Doug Ford decided to suspend the advertisement to facilitate constructive dialogue with the U.S. [2][3] Group 1 - The additional tariff is a response to a specific advertisement that Trump claims distorts facts and aims to interfere with U.S. court decisions regarding tariffs [1][2] - The advertisement continued to air during a major baseball event, which further angered Trump, prompting his decision to raise tariffs [2] - Canadian officials, including Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, expressed a desire for constructive discussions despite the escalating tensions [3] Group 2 - The Canadian economy is facing challenges, with a reported unemployment rate at a nine-year high, partly due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on key Canadian exports [3] - The Canadian Chamber of Commerce highlighted that any level of tariffs would primarily burden the U.S. before affecting North American competitiveness [3] - There has been a significant decline in cross-border travel and U.S. exports to Canada, with a 31% drop in road travel and an 85% decrease in U.S. liquor exports to Canada in the second quarter [3]

Group 1 - The United States signed a series of trade agreements with four Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, Cambodia, and Thailand, focusing on tariffs and key minerals [1] - The agreements maintain a 19% tariff rate on exports to Malaysia and Cambodia, with some products gradually reducing to zero tariffs, while Vietnam currently faces a 20% tariff [1] - Vietnam has committed to significantly increasing its purchases of American products to reduce the trade surplus, which reached $123 billion last year [1] Group 2 - Thailand agreed to eliminate tariffs on approximately 99% of goods and relax foreign ownership restrictions in its telecommunications sector [2] - Malaysia will simplify regulations for American cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, and has secured tariff exemptions for aerospace equipment and commodities like palm oil and cocoa [2] - Thailand committed to purchasing 80 American aircraft worth $18.8 billion and will buy around $5.4 billion in energy products annually, including LNG and crude oil [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 8,672 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with specific amounts maturing each day [1] - A total of 41 restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with a total market value of 48.762 billion yuan based on the latest closing prices [3] - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Fengbei Biotechnology on October 27 and Delijia on October 28 [3] Group 2 - The earnings reports for major A-share companies will be released next week, with notable companies like Kweichow Moutai, BYD, Vanke, and Sinopec expected to report [5] - A total of 4,347 listed companies are scheduled to disclose their Q3 reports from October 27 to 31, with 1,087 companies having already reported as of October 25 [5] - Among the companies that have reported, 647 have shown a year-on-year profit increase, accounting for approximately 59.52% [5] Group 3 - Major U.S. tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple, are set to release their earnings reports next week [6] - Caterpillar and Boeing are also expected to release earnings that could significantly impact the market [6] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [7] - Investors will focus on the Fed's language following the decision to gauge future rate cut signals [7] Group 5 - The 2025 APEC Leaders' Meeting will take place from October 31 to November 1 in South Korea, with discussions on U.S.-China relations anticipated [6] - A trade negotiation delegation from China will visit Malaysia for discussions on economic relations with the U.S. [6]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 7.27% and the ChiNext Index rose by 8.05% over the last five trading days, while the large-cap value index grew by 1.30% and the large-cap growth index by 5.08% [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index increased by 2.63%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 3.58%. The telecommunications and electronics sectors performed well, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and food and beverage sectors lagged [1] Valuation Levels - As of October 24, 2025, the static PE ratio of the CSI All Share Index is at an 81% percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 76% and 73% respectively. The ChiNext Index is close to the 52% mark, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 62% and 59% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively at the historical median level [1] Risk Premium - The risk premium, calculated as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, stands at 2.79% as of October 24, 2025. The two standard deviation boundary is at 4.75% [1] Fund Flows - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows amounted to 2.4 billion yuan, while margin trading decreased by approximately 6.2 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 177.95 billion yuan [2] Thematic Indexes - The latest thematic allocations include the CSI Energy Index, CSI Banking Index, and CSI Coal Index, among others [2][3]

Economic Overview - The GDP of Chongqing reached 24,449.36 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - The primary industry added value was 1,530.19 billion yuan, growing by 3.5%; the secondary industry added value was 8,430.35 billion yuan, growing by 3.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 14,488.82 billion yuan, growing by 6.3% [1] Agricultural Production - Vegetable production reached 19.34 million tons, up by 3.5%; fruit production was 3.95 million tons, increasing by 5%; and tea production was 58,000 tons, growing by 2.9% [5] - Livestock production showed stability, with meat production at 1.436 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [5] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.4% year-on-year [6] - The motorcycle industry saw the highest growth rate at 21.2%, while the automotive and equipment industries grew by 12.6% and 8.8%, respectively [6] - Integrated circuit production reached 8.823 billion pieces, a significant increase of 61.6% [6] Service Sector Performance - The revenue of large-scale service enterprises was 455.968 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year growth [6] - The cultural and tourism sectors experienced substantial growth, with the film production industry growing by 86.9% [6] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12,483 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [6] - Online retail sales for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.2% [6] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 1% year-on-year, with industrial investment increasing by 10.1% [6] - Equipment investment surged by 33.9%, indicating strong growth in this sector [6] Price Stability - The consumer price index remained stable, with a year-on-year change of 0% [7] - The producer price index for industrial products decreased by 1.6% [7] Income and Employment - The per capita disposable income reached 32,283 yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year [7] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.3%, remaining stable compared to the previous year [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the fourth week of October, the operating rate remained stable, and investment products showed mixed performance. Food prices increased, mainly driven by rising vegetable prices, while pork prices continued to decline. Export freight rates continued to rise, with North American routes showing continuous monthly growth. Port freight volume increased month-on-month and maintained high year-on-year growth since October. The industrial operating rate remained stable, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased month-on-month. In terms of investment, the inventory reduction of rebar accelerated, indicating the impact of the "two 500 billion" tools on physical work volume. In the real estate market, the transactions of new and second-hand houses decreased slightly month-on-month after rising the previous week, but the year-on-year negative growth narrowed, with second-hand houses showing better resilience [4][29]. - For the bond market, a large amount of macro news will be released next week. The impact on bond yields is expected to be controllable, but attention should be paid to the disturbance of the stock-bond seesaw effect on bond market sentiment. Externally, China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th. Domestically, the demand for investment products improved marginally in October, and the influence of new tools on fixed asset investment data is expected to be reflected from October to November. Next week, attention should be paid to the results of the China-US negotiations, the release of the "15th Five-Year Plan" suggestions, and the APEC meeting [4][30]. Summary by Directory Inflation-related: Vegetable Price Increase Widened - Food prices increased, with the average wholesale price of pork in China decreasing by 3.0% week-on-week. The increase in vegetable prices continued to widen, boosting the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index and the Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index by 1.4% and 1.7% week-on-week respectively [8]. Import and Export-related: Export Freight Rates Accelerated - The month-on-month increase in export container shipping prices widened. The CCFI index increased by 2.0% week-on-week, and the SCFI increased by 7.1%. The market sentiment of the China Export Container Transport Market continued to rebound, with stable transport demand and rising freight rates on most routes. In the North American market, the supply-demand fundamentals were stable, and market freight rates continued to rise [9]. - In terms of port freight volume, from October 13th to 19th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 3.6% and 2.5% week-on-week respectively, with year-on-year increases of 9.1% and 1.0% respectively. Since October, the monthly average year-on-year increases have been 8.8% and 2.5%, indicating strong export volume [9]. - The increase in the BDI index narrowed, and the CDFI index decreased. The international dry bulk shipping market was generally stable, with slight increases in freight rates for various ship types [9]. Industry-related: Rebar Inventory Reduction Accelerated - The increase in coal prices continued to widen. Due to the decrease in temperature in the South, the daily consumption of power plants decreased, and procurement willingness declined. However, due to stricter safety inspections in coal-producing areas, supply was limited, and prices continued to rise [12]. - The decline in rebar prices slowed down, with the spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreasing by 0.01% week-on-week. The inventory of rebar decreased by 4.2% week-on-week, with continuous inventory reduction for four weeks and an expanding reduction range, indicating the acceleration of physical work volume [2][12]. - Copper prices turned from decline to increase, with the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous Copper and LME Copper increasing by 0.45% and 1.0% week-on-week respectively. The slowdown of US inflation data strengthened the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year, and the convening of important domestic meetings boosted macro sentiment, supporting the pricing of risk assets [2][15]. - The glass futures continued to decline. The spot market was weak, with increasing inventory in many places. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers was low, and manufacturers actively reduced prices to maintain sales. There was no positive news in the supply-demand fundamentals, and the weakness of the spot market was difficult to change in the short term [15]. Investment-related: Decline in Cement Prices Narrowed - Cement prices mostly decreased, with intensified regional differentiation. The weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, compared with a 2.0% decrease the previous week. Demand was weak in North China, Northeast China, and East China, and the implementation of price increases was poor. In Central South China, demand was limited due to capital and project completion [17]. - New house sales decreased marginally. From October 17th to 23rd, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 203.8 million square meters, a 4.8% decrease week-on-week and a 20% decrease year-on-year, with a slight narrowing compared to the previous week [3][20]. - Second-hand house sales continued to decline year-on-year. From last Friday to this Thursday, second-hand house sales decreased by 1.4% week-on-week and 11.7% year-on-year, with a slower decline rate than in previous years, indicating better resilience [3][20]. Consumption: Passenger Car Retail Sales Remained Negative in Mid-October - Passenger car retail sales remained negative. From October 1st to 19th, passenger car retail sales decreased by 6% year-on-year and increased by 7% month-on-month. The weak start of the car market in October was affected by the increase in holidays and the overdraft of demand after the quarterly sprint in September [21]. - Crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. As of October 24th, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 7.6% and 6.9% respectively compared to last Friday. The postponement of the US-Russia meeting, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the upcoming China-US negotiations boosted crude oil prices [21].