Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down by 151 points, ending at 24,069, after initially rising to a high of 24,269 before falling below the 24,000 mark [3][4] - The total trading volume for the day was 231.25 billion HKD, with net outflows from northbound trading amounting to 3.05 billion HKD [3][4] - Major blue-chip stocks such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan experienced declines of 2.9%, 0.1%, and 2.5% respectively [3] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The June PMI for China's service sector showed a slowdown in growth, contributing to the weak performance of the Hong Kong stock market [4] - The ongoing price war in the Chinese electric vehicle market is expected to shift towards non-price incentives starting in 2025, as the market matures [8] - AlixPartners predicts that by 2030, only 15 out of 129 electric vehicle brands in China will remain financially viable, capturing three-quarters of the market share [8] Group 3: Company News - Yuexiu Property reported a contract sales amount of approximately 61.5 billion RMB for the first half of the year, an increase of about 11% year-on-year [12] - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical's drug for ovarian cancer has been approved for market in China, addressing a significant unmet clinical need [13] - Shimao Group announced the sale of a 50% stake in a Beijing project for approximately 156 million RMB, expecting a profit of about 52 million RMB from the transaction [14]

弘则研究 内卷的反内卷：过剩工业品的春天？20250703 摘要 反内卷与 GDP 高增长目标存在冲突，官方尚未明确解释或调整 GDP 目 标，当前政策对市场更多是短期情绪冲击，难有全局性改变。需关注新 能源领域，特别是光伏和新能源车产业，这两个领域疫情期间产能扩张 显著，可能面临产能约束政策。 焦煤市场受多重因素推涨，包括地缘政治风险和环保限产，市场担忧钢 材产业重蹈 2015 年供给侧改革覆辙。在当前供给侧改革情绪下，不建 议做空焦煤，前期空单可考虑阶段性止损平仓，等待更明确政策出台后 再决策。 钢铁行业 1-5 月粗钢产量低于去年同期，市场已通过价格自我调节，下 半年无显著行政减产必要。焦煤行业资产负债率良好，钢材出口竞争力 增强，适当下行的焦煤价格有利于下游利润和出口，总体而言，钢铁行 业供给侧改革概率不高。 原料市场供应过剩主要因下游需求缺乏支撑，而非供应端增量明显。焦 煤平衡表已从过剩修正为平衡状态，但不会带来向上空间。关注国产矿 产量变化，预计全年度供应过剩问题因进口矿减量有所改善，但整体上 游库存仍预计垒库，对下半年原料市场偏空观点不变。 Q&A 最近中央财经委员会会议提到反内卷以及推动落后产 ...

同时，YU7锁单用户平均年龄33岁。其中，女性用户比例30%，比小米SU7同期高 4.5%。女性用户最青睐的颜色是流金粉、丹霞紫；男性用户 最青睐的是喜欢寒武岩灰、深海蓝。 小米YU7的苹果用户占比52.4%，比SU7同期高4.4%。当前订单数最多的TOP3城市分别是上海、杭州、北京。这三个地方也都是Model Y卖得 最好的城市。 随着小米YU7的正式到来，小米创办人，董事长兼CEO雷军也在近日的直播中跟大家聊了YU7和SU7最新情况，以及背后的一些故事。 同时，雷军表示，"上周，小米YU7正式发布，火爆程度超出了我们的预期，真心感谢大家的支持！" 结合雷军给出的信息来看，小米YU7发布后，很多人质疑"7天可退"的原则。实际上，这是行业惯例，也就是车企给大家提供的犹豫期，一般 是3天。小米首销期定了7天，主要是担心门店的试驾安排不过来。 小米YU7开售18小时后，锁单24万单，大家都在关心24小时大定和锁单，小米当时决定不公布了，免得引来各种讨论和质疑。 有人质疑："订单里有大量转单"。但实际上，小米SU7 和小米SU7 Ultra转单小米YU7的数量，不足小米YU7订单的15%。 雷军还表示： 最近，我看 ...

乘联分会：中国6月初步统计新能源车市场零售同比增长25%，环比增长4%。 ...

Core Insights - The sales momentum of new energy vehicles (NEVs) remains strong in the first half of the year, with significant improvements in various technical aspects such as power structure, range, and battery energy density [1][2][4] Group 1: Sales and Market Trends - In June, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.26 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29%, with a total of 6.47 million units sold in the first half of the year, marking a 38% year-on-year growth [2] - The number of new energy vehicle models in the tax exemption directory for 2025 is 2,533, which is fewer compared to previous years, indicating a stable technical upgrade in exempt models [2][3] Group 2: Technical Developments - The majority of new pure electric passenger vehicles launched this year have a range exceeding 600 kilometers, with a notable increase in high-energy density battery products [2][4] - The market for short-range products is diminishing, while the demand for low-speed electric vehicles remains significant, suggesting potential growth in this segment [6] Group 3: Product Differentiation - Hydrogen fuel commercial vehicles have gained traction due to substantial subsidies, surpassing plug-in hybrids in the number of models submitted for approval [3] - The new models of plug-in hybrids are primarily focused on higher mileage, with most having a range of 100-200 kilometers, while range-extended vehicles are also seeing rapid growth [7] Group 4: Cost and Performance Considerations - The industry is shifting from merely competing on data to a more pragmatic approach, with manufacturers focusing on safety, cost, and overall performance of new models [8] - The effective control of battery costs has allowed manufacturers to offer vehicles with high ranges (500-600 kilometers) at lower price points, enhancing market accessibility [8]

Core Insights - Xiaomi's Yu7 vehicle received strong market response with over 200,000 pre-orders in just 3 minutes and 240,000 within 18 hours of launch [1] - CEO Lei Jun addressed concerns regarding the pre-order data, clarifying that the statistics align with industry standards and that the cancellation rate for Yu7 is low compared to other models [1] - Competitors have attempted to intercept Yu7 orders using misleading sales tactics, which Lei Jun criticized, emphasizing the importance of focusing on product strengths rather than disparaging competitors [1] Pre-order Data - The Yu7 achieved over 200,000 pre-orders in 3 minutes and 240,000 within 18 hours, indicating strong consumer interest [1] - Lei Jun stated that the cancellation rate for Yu7 is less than 15% of the total orders, which is significantly lower than the transfer orders for other models [1][2] - The decision not to disclose the 24-hour lock order data was made to avoid unnecessary speculation and discussion [1] User Demographics - The average age of Yu7 owners is approximately 33 years, which is three years older than SU7 owners [2] - Female ownership of Yu7 stands at 30%, which is 4.5% higher than the SU7 during its initial sales period [2] - Among Yu7 owners, 52.4% are iPhone users, which is 4.4% higher than the SU7 [2] Future Plans - Lei Jun indicated that due to high domestic demand, Xiaomi will focus on fulfilling local orders before considering international expansion, which may occur around 2027 [2]

"反内卷式竞争"的投资机会 20250702 摘要 反内卷政策升级，人民日报等媒体密集发文，预示行业协会将密集发文 控价控产能，主要集中在新能源车和光伏行业，可能引发市场预期波动， 影响相关公司股价和大宗商品价格。 大宗商品价格下跌源于需求侧居民收入和地产下滑。传统行业经过前期 去产能和企业整合，供给侧大幅出清空间有限，本轮周期股反弹更多源 于市场内生需求，而非供给侧改革。 新能源车和光伏领域是反内卷政策重点，政府鼓励民营企业信心。未来 或通过控制价格实现红利，但难以复制 2015-2016 年供给侧改革驱动 的大宗商品牛市。 钢铁行业：限产政策短期影响有限，但制造业需求超预期增长，成本端 双胶价格下跌提升钢厂利润。关注电炉减产及低位库存对钢铁价格和利 润的推动作用，预计 7-8 月钢铁股将有一波反弹行情。 水泥行业：协会推动供给侧改革，要求企业严格按照设计产能生产，有 望提升标的配置性价比。今年企业具备底线思维，避免激烈价格战，确 保行业微盈利，但需求淡季和错峰执行力度不足构成不利因素。 Q&A 如何理解中央财经委关于建设全国统一大市场的政策？ 中央财经委近期强调建设全国统一大市场，旨在依法依规治理企业低价 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the convertible bond market and its performance in the context of the broader equity market, particularly focusing on the Chinese market dynamics and external geopolitical factors [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The convertible bond market is experiencing a structural shift due to favorable external conditions, such as easing geopolitical tensions and supportive domestic policies, which have led to a bullish outlook for July [1][5]. - **Convertible Bonds Performance**: Convertible bonds have shown better resilience and upside potential compared to common stocks, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where funds are increasingly chasing yield [1][4][5]. - **Sector Focus**: Key sectors to watch include AI, military, semiconductors, humanoid robots, and new consumption areas like dairy and beverages, which are expected to have strong earnings visibility [1][6][11]. - **Banking Sector Trends**: There is a notable acceleration in the exit of bank convertible bonds, with significant amounts expected to flow back into the pure bond market or into new bottom-fishing opportunities [1][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Convertible Bond Ratings**: In the first half of the year, 37 convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded, but the impact was manageable, with most experiencing limited price declines [7]. - **Solar Industry Outlook**: The solar sector is currently facing increased competition but is expected to stabilize as leading companies reduce production and consolidate, making it a potential bottom-fishing opportunity [8]. - **Investment Strategies**: Strategies such as downshift speculation and YTM replacement are highlighted as viable approaches for investors, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector [3][27]. - **Company-Specific Insights**: - **Hua Zheng Co.**: The company has turned profitable with a focus on high-frequency substrates and advanced materials, indicating a positive short-term outlook [12]. - **Guo Li Co.**: Expected revenue growth of 50% to 100% due to strong demand in military and semiconductor sectors [13]. - **Shui Yang Co.**: The company is leveraging both proprietary and agency brands to drive growth in the high-end beauty market [14]. - **Hua You Co.**: Positioned well in the new energy vehicle sector, benefiting from strong demand and integrated supply chain advantages [15][17]. - **Jing Wang Electronics**: The company is gaining traction in the GPU supply chain, indicating a positive performance outlook despite industry pressures [18]. - **Anji Technology**: The company is seeing significant growth in semiconductor materials, bolstered by partnerships with major players like TSMC [19]. - **Hang Yu Co.**: The company is well-positioned in the military sector with a solid order book and improving margins [20]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment for the convertible bond market and specific sectors remains optimistic, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and sector-specific growth opportunities. Investors are encouraged to focus on high-growth areas with strong earnings visibility while being mindful of potential risks associated with credit and market volatility [1][5][11].

7月2日，小米创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军举行返场直播。 在直播中，雷军也谈到了此事，雷军表示，看到了个别车企销售的"截胡"话术，"我也认真学习了一 下，实话实说，内容不太准确，甚至有一些诋毁和歪曲"，雷军强调，"我觉得大可不必"，每个产品 有自己的优点，自信的话讲自己优势就行，没必要诋毁。 此外，雷军表示，当前YU7的锁单数量超出想象，希望大家可以稍微多一点点耐心。"如果大家急着 用车，我觉得国产新能源车都还不错，比如明天将发布的小鹏G7、月底将发布的理想i8，当然， Model Y也不错。" 对于年度目标交付量，雷军表示，将尽量扩产，年初交付目标是30万辆，扩产后目标修正到35万 辆。 对于小米YU7上线即爆单的情况，雷军表示，"看到（三分钟）大定数据的第一时间我都愣住了，看 了好几遍才跟现场的人分享。三分钟大定20万单，一小时大定28.9万单，这个数字绝对创造了中国 汽车工业的奇迹，所以大家都非常震惊。" 据证券时报，由于YU7订单"爆单"，目前，小米汽车订购数据显示，YU7标准版锁单后预计交付时 间已经排到58周以后，有市场消息称，多家车企推出"截胡"小米YU7订单的策略。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [27]. Core Insights - The NEV sector in China is experiencing intense competition, with performance among major manufacturers becoming increasingly divergent. The focus is expected to shift from price wars to quality and service upgrades as regulatory scrutiny tightens [8][16]. - BYD's June sales reached 383,000 units, a 12% year-on-year increase, while Geely sold 236,000 units, up 42% year-on-year. Both companies are adjusting their annual targets upwards due to strong first-half performance [9][10]. - Leapmotor achieved record sales of 48,000 units in June, marking a 139% year-on-year increase, while Li Auto and Xiaomi saw month-on-month declines in sales [11][14]. - NIO's wholesale sales were 25,000 units in June, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, but the company faces challenges from competitors in the same price segment [15][16]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - BYD's first-half sales totaled 2.146 million units, achieving 39% of its annual target, while Geely's first-half sales reached 1.409 million units, with 47% of its revised target already met [9][10]. - Leapmotor's cumulative deliveries for the first half were 222,000 units, and it is expected to maintain strong sales momentum with new product launches [11]. - Li Auto's June deliveries were 36,000 units, down 24% year-on-year, while XPeng delivered 35,000 units, marking a 224% year-on-year increase [13][14]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in competition dynamics, with companies focusing on service upgrades and technological advancements rather than aggressive pricing strategies due to regulatory pressures [8][16]. - The performance of various brands indicates a competitive landscape where established players like BYD and Geely are facing challenges from emerging brands like Leapmotor and NIO [15][16]. Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see continued volatility in sales as new models are launched and companies adapt to stricter regulations. Brands that can offer better value and brand equity are likely to outperform [16].