有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 铜震荡走高，上涨 1.75%至 9520 美元/吨：SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.84%至 78320 元/吨；国内现货进口小幅盈利。宏观方面，海外方面，美国财政部长贝森特重申，美 | LME | | | | 国财政部正处于"预警轨道"，并重申美国政府永远不会违约，并承诺财政部不会使用 "花招"绕过债务上限。另外， 美国财政部拍卖 420 亿美元 10 年期国债，整体结果稳 | | | | | 健，多个指标健康。国内方面，中国 4 月财新服务业 PMI 50.7，新订单增速放缓，但财 | | | | | 政部部长蓝佛安表示，将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策，有信心实现 2025 年的 5%左右 | | | | 铜 | 增长目标。库存方面，LME 库存下降 1675 吨至 195625 吨；SMM 周二统计全国主流地 | | | | | 区铜库存环比节前减少 0.11 万吨至 12.85 万吨。宏观方面美政府态度持续软化，基本面 | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Due to the uncertainty in the tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and China, and the expectation of intensified domestic economic stimulus policies along with the decreasing domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, the copper price is expected to be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors lightly go long on the main contract at low prices, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 6, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,600 yuan, up 380 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 83,514 lots, down 6,040 lots; the open interest was 172,625 lots, up 4,071 lots; the inventory was 24,922 tons, down 3,244 tons [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,190 yuan, up 240 yuan; the Shanghai copper basis was 590 yuan, down 140 yuan; the spot premium or discount in different regions showed different changes [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 310 yuan, up 80 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 370 yuan, down 20 yuan; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 380 yuan, up 50 yuan [2]. - **London Copper and COMEX Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on May 2 was 9,365.5 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants on May 2 was 195,625 tons. The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper on May 6 was 4.755 dollars, up 0.06 dollars, and the total inventory was 154,632 tons, up 5,306 tons [2]. Industry News - **Upstream**: Aurubis will start an 800 - million - dollar US scrap copper smelter in 2025, aiming to process 180,000 tons of scrap copper and produce 70,000 tons of refined copper annually. Many mines and smelters have production changes, such as the复产 of Antamina copper mine in Peru, the suspension of production in some plants in Chile and Kazakhstan, and the planned production of some expansion projects [2][3]. - **Downstream**: The capacity utilization rate of some copper - related downstream industries may change. For example, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod enterprises may increase, while that of some industries like copper foil packaging wire and brass rod may decrease [3]. Macro - economic Situation The US Congress reached a budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of 5.3 trillion dollars and a debt ceiling increase of 5 trillion dollars in the next decade. The Trump administration proposed to cut the federal fiscal budget by 183 billion dollars in 2026. The better - than - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI and employment data in April postponed the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut to July, September, or October [3].

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月7日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 260200 | 261200 | -1000 | -0.38% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 900 | 800 | 100 | 12.50% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 260700 | 261700 | -1000 | -0.38% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -228.98 | -205.00 | -23.98 | -11.70% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -6721.57 | -9899.07 | 3177.50 | 32.10% | 元/吨 | | ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 6 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.06%至 77600 元/吨。美 国 4 月非农就业人口增长达到 17.7 万人，就业增长强劲，失业率亦保持 稳定，但制造业产出出现自 2020 年以来最严重的萎缩，中国 PMI 数据 也对关税影响有所体现。同时 4 月份发往美国的精炼铜货物超过 17 万 吨，或将超过 2001 年 11 月份大约 14.2 万吨所创历史最高，美铜承压， 带动假日海外市场一度大跌，但随后持续反弹。国内假日期间铜价整体 大幅波动，小幅下跌。基本面上，铜精矿现货市场延续低迷态势，TC 持 续探底跌破-40 美元，虽受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然保持韧 性，但炼厂压力在增大。在铜产出维持高位的背景下，市场去库并未受 到明显影响，纽约大幅垒库，但国内大幅去库，LME 库存亦在减少，铜 的供需基本面仍偏紧张。供应端矿端压力延续并有加大趋势，废铜进口 可能受限。但铜价进一步上行将对需求带来抑制，而特朗普政府贸易战 对全球经济带来的拖累仍将对铜整体需求带来不利影响，或将在需求端 逐步显现，因而铜价上行空间也受到限制。节后沪铜或仍维持震荡格局， 建 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets have been highly volatile, and non - ferrous metals may maintain a volatile trend after the holiday [1] - The overall demand for non - ferrous metals is affected by factors such as trade wars and global economic slowdown, and the upward space for prices is limited [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: During the domestic holiday, copper prices fluctuated significantly and declined slightly. After filling the downward gap, it returned to a volatile state [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot market of copper concentrates remains sluggish, TC continues to decline, and the pressure on smelters is increasing. The supply - demand fundamentals are still relatively tight, with significant inventory build - up in New York but significant inventory reduction in China and a decrease in LME inventory [3] - **Price Outlook**: After the holiday, Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to conduct cautious trading within the range of 74,500 - 78,500 [3] 3.2 Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price continued to decline after filling the downward gap and then maintained a volatile state [3] - **Fundamentals**: The supply of bauxite is gradually improving, and the price is gradually decreasing. Alumina is in a state of mixed production, resumption, and reduction. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, but the downstream processing start - up rate is decreasing [3] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner after the holiday. It is recommended to moderately short at high prices within the range of 19,500 - 20,300 [3] 3.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: After filling the downward gap, it returned to a volatile state [3] - **Fundamentals**: The domestic zinc ore processing fee increase has slowed down significantly. Although there are smelter maintenance plans, the impact on refined zinc production is expected to be limited. The downstream consumption is expected to be flat [3] - **Price Outlook**: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile after the holiday, with a reference operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 [3] 3.4 Lead - **Market Review**: After filling the downward gap, it weakened [3] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of secondary lead has been partially repaired but is still in a loss state. The supply of secondary raw materials is tight, but the primary supply remains at a high level. April is the off - season for lead - acid batteries, and the start - up rate has decreased [3] - **Price Outlook**: The market may continue to maintain a volatile pattern after the holiday, and it is recommended to conduct trading within the range of 16,500 - 17,000 [3] 3.5 Nickel - **Market Review**: The price was weakly volatile before the holiday. After filling the downward gap, it weakened [3] - **Fundamentals**: The PNBP policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the domestic trade ore price may be prone to rise. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the demand for nickel - iron is supported by the high production of stainless steel, but the oversupply pattern has expanded [3] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to observe. The reference operating range for the main contract is 120,000 - 127,000 [3] 3.6 Tin - **Market Review**: After stabilizing, it showed a sideways volatile state [4] - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore raw materials is tight, but there are strong expectations for mine resumption. The downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. The overall inventory is at a medium level [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase. It is recommended to conduct trading within the range of 240,000 - 270,000 for the SHFE tin 06 contract, and continue to pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [4] 3.7 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: It continued the downward trend and accelerated the decline after breaking through the support level [127] - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, and the factory and port inventories increased. The electricity price decreased in May, and the cost decreased. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to reduce production, while enterprises in the southwest are gradually resuming production, but the low silicon price limits the progress [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile [4] 3.8 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The downward trend remained unchanged, and it continued to decline at a low level [4] - **Fundamentals**: The production in April decreased, and the import of lithium salt is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is good, but it is affected by the US tariff policy. The supply pressure is large, and the spot supply is becoming more relaxed [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to continue the weakly volatile pattern. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price is high and continue to pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production arrangement of cathode material factories [4] 3.9 Macro - economic Data - **China**: In April, the official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.4, the lowest in three months [14][15] - **US**: In April, the ISM manufacturing PMI shrank to the largest extent in five months, and the first - quarter GDP decreased by 0.3%. However, the non - farm employment increased by 177,000, significantly better than expected, and the unemployment rate remained stable [18][19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided in the reports. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each metal variety, such as "high - level oscillation" for gold, "wide - range adjustment" for silver, "buy on dips" for copper, etc. [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The reports analyze multiple metals including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate. The core views are based on factors like economic data, trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. For example, gold is supported by long - term de - dollarization and global asset re - allocation, while copper is affected by global supply shortages and trade policies. [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold - **Core View**: High - level oscillation. Long - term strategic allocation value persists due to international order disruption and de - dollarization. [1] - **Price Range**: [766 - 800] [1] - **Market Performance**: Last week, the outer - market gold declined continuously, but yesterday it basically recovered the previous losses. [2] - **Basic Logic**: US economic recession risk rises as the Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3% due to surging imports and weak consumption. However, strong non - farm payroll data reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged as trade negotiations are still uncertain, and global asset re - allocation and fiscal - monetary easing will support gold. [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term sentiment is slack, but can participate after stabilization. Long - term logic remains intact. [3] Silver - **Core View**: Wide - range adjustment. It is affected by gold and base metals, and currently in a large oscillation range. [1] - **Price Range**: [8100 - 8380] [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it with an oscillation mindset within the current range. [3] Copper - **Core View**: Buy on dips. The copper concentrate shortage persists, and domestic inventory is decreasing. Be vigilant against soft squeeze - out risks. [1] - **Price Range**: SHFE copper [77000, 78500]; LME copper [9000, 9500] dollars/ton [1][5] - **Market Performance**: During the May Day holiday, LME copper rebounded in a V - shape, with an overall increase of 0.3%. [4] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is disrupted, and processing fees are at new lows. Domestic electrolytic copper production is increasing year - on - year but decreasing month - on - month. Global copper inventory is flowing to the US, and domestic inventory is decreasing, with a risk of soft squeeze - out. [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the easing of macro - sentiment, buy on dips near the 77,000 mark. Long - term optimism remains due to the global copper shortage. [5] Zinc - **Core View**: Sell on rebounds. Zinc supply is increasing while demand is weak in the long - term. [1] - **Price Range**: SHFE zinc [22300, 22900]; LME zinc [2580, 2680] dollars/ton [1][7] - **Market Performance**: During the May Day holiday, LME zinc first declined and then rebounded, with an overall decline of 0.7%. [6] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to increase, and domestic smelter raw material supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weakening as the peak season ends, and the steel market is sluggish. [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds in the short - term. Seize short - selling opportunities in the long - term. [7] Aluminum - **Core View**: Under pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation after the holiday, and downstream processing enterprises' operating rates are declining. [1] - **Price Range**: [19500 - 20100] [1] - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, while alumina is stabilizing at a low level. [8] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas tariff policy impact is weakening. Domestic inventory is decreasing, but downstream demand is weakening. For alumina, supply - demand surplus is temporarily alleviated, and inventory is at a high level. [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly buy on dips for SHFE aluminum, focusing on the terminal peak - season performance. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak. [9] Nickel - **Core View**: Under pressure. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory is also at a high level. [1] - **Price Range**: [120000 - 127000] [11] - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then declines. [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment impact is weakening. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic refined nickel production is high, and inventory is at a high level. Stainless steel inventory reduction faces resistance, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, focusing on inventory changes. [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Bearish in May. Supply - demand remains loose, inventory is accumulating, and ore prices are declining. [1] - **Price Range**: [65000, 66500] [1] - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened slightly lower, rose and then fell, hitting a new low. [12] - **Industrial Logic**: In May, supply is sufficient as salt - lake lithium production enters the peak season, and overseas lithium ore shipments increase. Demand shows no seasonal increase, and tariff policies affect exports. Costs are decreasing as ore prices approach last year's lows. [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Weak operation, sell on rebounds. [13]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66万吨。1-2月，全球锌板产量为225.30万吨，消费量为222.75 万吨,供应过剩2.55万吨。2月,全球锌矿产量为98.40万吨。1-2月,全球锌 矿产量为196.398.3万吨；偏空。 2、基差：现货22910，基差+360；偏多。 3、库存：5月2日LME锌库存较上日减少100吨至173800吨，4月30日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少75吨至2354吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Short after a rebound [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [4] Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) released at the end of April showed a decline in nickel prices. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decrease after May. Demand support from downstream nickel sulfate and profit thresholds of external procurement manufacturers have both declined. Stainless steel production cuts are less likely. Despite a short - term rebound in nickel prices, the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged [1][2]. Zinc - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) predicts a surplus of refined zinc in 2025. The supply side is generally loosening, while the demand side is likely to weaken, with a bearish outlook in the medium - to - long term [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro & Industry News - **Nickel**: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) released the latest INPI on April 28. The price of nickel pig iron (NPI) decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the prices of high - grade nickel matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) also declined [1]. - **Zinc**: The ILZSG expects a surplus of 93,000 tons of refined zinc in 2025. Global refined zinc demand is expected to grow by 1% to 13.64 million tons, and production will increase by 1.8% to 13.73 million tons. Zinc ore production is expected to grow by 4.3% to 12.43 million tons [4]. Supply - **Nickel**: Indonesia increased mining royalties on the 26th, and the price of nickel ore is firm. Although the total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month, it remains at a historically high level. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline [1]. - **Zinc**: Mining enterprise profits have shrunk, but the TC price has not declined, and imports at the mine end have significantly improved. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but remains at a relatively high level. The possibility of production cuts at the supply side is extremely low, and the supply is generally loosening [4]. Demand - **Nickel**: The cost of nickel in the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans is around 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. Stainless steel production cuts are less likely [2]. - **Zinc**: The "Golden March and Silver April" peak demand season is coming to an end. Galvanizing production enthusiasm is low, and the demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline. Die - casting alloy and zinc oxide markets also show weak demand [5]. Conclusion - **Nickel**: Although there are still concerns about Sino - US trade, the market expects the US attitude to ease. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short term, the situation is changing from tight to loose, and there is a surplus in the medium - to - long term, with a bearish outlook [5]. Operation Suggestions - **Nickel**: Short [2] - **Zinc**: Wait for an opportunity to short; if there is no rebound, the downside space is limited [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the bond market should focus on the funding situation. The central bank's operations are uncertain, and the level of funding rates is the core variable for whether bond market interest rates can continue to break downward [4]. - The credit bond market sentiment is stable, and the allocation rhythm should be maintained. The new issuance volume decreased significantly in the week of April 28 - May 4, with a large net outflow. Yields generally declined, and spreads showed different trends [4]. - For convertible bonds, operations can gradually become more active. The convertible bond market is stabilizing and showing signs of a rebound. If the equity market sentiment improves, the demand for convertible bond allocation will continue to be released [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1 Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking 1.1 Interest - rate Bonds - In May, the bond market should focus on the funding situation. The 10 - year Treasury bond has moved from the right to the left of the [1.6% - 1.9%] range. The net supply of government bonds in May may reach about 1.7 trillion, bringing uncertainty to the funding situation. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cooled during the May Day holiday, adding uncertainty to the central bank's monetary policy [4][9]. 1.2 Credit Bonds - From April 28 to May 4, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 112 billion yuan, a 79% decrease compared to the previous period due to the May Day holiday. The total repayment was 197.3 billion yuan, also a significant decrease, resulting in a net outflow of 85.3 billion yuan. Yields generally declined, and spreads showed different trends. The turnover rate decreased, and high - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds [4][11]. 1.3 Convertible Bonds - Last week, the equity market showed mixed performance. The convertible bond market declined slightly, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index falling 0.07%. The convertible bond valuation is stabilizing and showing signs of a rebound. Operations can be more active [4][13]. 1.4 This Week's Attention and Important Data Release - This week, important data to be released include China's April Caixin Services PMI, April CPI, the US May interest - rate decision, and the Eurozone's April Services PMI [14]. 1.5 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest - rate Bonds - This week, the estimated issuance of interest - rate bonds is 565.1 billion yuan, which is relatively high compared to the same period. Treasury bonds are expected to be 391 billion yuan, local bonds 74.1 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds about 100 billion yuan [14][16]. 2 Interest - rate Bonds Review and Outlook 2.1 Central Bank's Operations and Funding Situation - During the month - end, the central bank increased reverse repurchase operations, with a total net injection of 735.8 billion yuan in the open - market operations for the week [19]. 2.2 Strong Willingness to Hold Bonds for the Holiday - Before the holiday, the PMI data and the funding situation were generally stable, and the enthusiasm for holding bonds for the holiday was high, which contributed to the decline in interest rates, especially for longer - term and high - duration bonds [34]. 3 High - frequency Data - Commodity prices mostly declined. On the production side, the operating rates were divided. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales remained positive, while land transactions decreased. Export indices declined. In terms of prices, crude oil prices decreased, copper and aluminum prices increased, and coal prices were divided [45]. 4 Credit Bonds Review 4.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, downgrades of bond or issuer ratings in the domestic market from April 28 - May 4, but there were overseas rating downgrades of some companies [64][65]. 4.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds decreased significantly, with a large net outflow. The cost of issuing high - grade bonds increased slightly, and the frequency of issuing new AA/AA - grade bonds remained low [4][68]. 4.3 Secondary Trading - Credit bond valuations declined slightly. Short - term spreads narrowed, while medium - and long - term spreads widened passively. The turnover rate decreased, and high - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds [4][73].

Group 1 - The company, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., will hold an online performance briefing for the year 2024 on May 12, 2025, at 15:00 [1][2] - The briefing will cover the company's operating performance, financial status, and strategic planning, allowing for interactive communication with investors [1] - The company encourages investors to submit questions in advance via email by May 9, 2025, to ensure a comprehensive discussion during the briefing [3] Group 2 - Key participants in the briefing will include General Manager Liang Hongliu, Secretary of the Board and Chief Accountant Yao Bing, and Independent Director Yao Lushi [2] - Investors can participate through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's "Interactive Easy" platform [3] - Contact information for the event includes representatives Wang Xiao and Zhang Ning, with provided phone numbers and email addresses for inquiries [4]