▲紫金山实验室。 南京日报/紫金山新闻记者 冯芃 摄 ▲南钢智能制造工厂。 企业供图 ▲江北新区的南京生物医药分中心技术平台工作人员在进行药物检测。该中心为高校、企业搭技术转化 桥梁，成创新企业孵化器。 通讯员 刘植花 南京日报/紫金山新闻记者 孙中元 摄 ▲南京"江翼达"低空飞行基地的无人机在为 移动中的船舶送外卖。 南京日报/紫金山新闻记者 徐琦 摄 □ 南京日报/紫金山新闻记者 江芬芬 【两会热点】 2月2日，中国人民政治协商会议江苏省第十三届委员会第四次会议在江苏大会堂隆重开幕。回望过去五 年，习近平总书记三次参加全国人代会江苏代表团审议，两次亲临江苏视察，为江苏高质量发展把脉定 向，为我们做好江苏工作提供了根本遵循和行动指南。做好当前和今后一个时期工作，要围绕深入学习 贯彻习近平总书记对江苏工作重要讲话精神这条主线，牢牢把握"在推进中国式现代化中走在前、做示 范"这一战略定位，牢牢把握"争当表率、争做示范、走在前列"这一总体要求，牢牢把握"强富美高"新 江苏现代化建设这一宏伟蓝图，牢牢把握"经济大省要挑大梁，为全国发展大局作贡献"这一重大责任， 全力推动中国式现代化江苏新实践取得新的更大突破。 南京 ...

Industry Overview - The report indicates that the steel industry is expected to continue its weak performance in February due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, with demand likely to remain subdued and production to contract, leading to slight fluctuations in steel prices [2][17][18] - In the copper sector, production activities on both supply and demand sides are anticipated to be affected by the Spring Festival, resulting in continued inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to post-holiday demand verification and geopolitical developments [2][32] - The aluminum industry is facing a slight contraction in production, with sufficient supply of bauxite from Guinea. Post-holiday production recovery in alumina and electrolytic aluminum plants may support alumina prices [3][41] - Gold prices are expected to experience increased volatility in the short term, influenced by geopolitical risks and domestic political uncertainties in the U.S. [3][51] Steel Sector - The steel PMI index for January 2026 is reported at 49.9%, indicating continued contraction but a slowdown in the rate of decline, with steel prices showing slight fluctuations [17] - In December 2025, the average daily transaction volume of construction steel was 98,600 tons, down 1.81% month-on-month and 10.95% year-on-year [18] - The total crude steel production for December 2025 was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.40% [19] Copper Sector - China's electrolytic copper production in January increased by 0.10% month-on-month and 16.32% year-on-year, with a total production of 1.326 million tons in December 2025 [32][33] - The LME copper inventory rose by 18.69% to 175,000 tons, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 91.81% to 156,900 tons during the same period [33][40] Aluminum Sector - The production of metallurgical-grade alumina in January 2026 decreased by 1.78% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, with total production at 8.011 million tons in December 2025 [41][42] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in December 2025 was 3.874 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.87% [42] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 13.28% to $4,907.50 per ounce from December 31, 2025, to January 30, 2026, while silver prices rose by 20.10% to $85.25 per ounce during the same period [51][52] Lithium and Cobalt - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 32.08% to 158,500 yuan per ton, while the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 64.58% to 158,000 yuan per ton [53] - The average price of 1 cobalt decreased by 4.99% to 447,000 yuan per ton during the reporting period [65] Rare Earths - The report notes a recovery in the supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxides, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 23.41% to 748,500 yuan per ton [73]

节前休养生息 钢钢钢钢 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 2 作者：尹艺瑾 从业资格证号：F03125275 交易咨询证号：Z0023616 研究联系方式：13752670838 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 钢材 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 上周盘面震荡回落。铁水小幅回落，五品种成材总产量环比继续小幅增加，库存累库，表需回落。螺纹 增产累库，表需回落，热卷增产去库，表需小幅回升。长流程钢厂利润小幅下降，部分钢厂亏损，短流 程钢厂谷电利润小幅回升。临近春节假期，部分贸易商已提前放假，现货市场成交清淡。盘面原料价格 | | | | 震荡剧烈，焦炭第一轮提涨落地，市场暂无后续价格预期。策略方面可更多关注钢厂利润相关头寸。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 螺纹月差5-10月差-49元/吨。 | | 钢厂利润 | 偏强 | 本周247家钢铁企业盈利率为39.39%，环比小幅回落，显著低于去年同期水平。 | | 废钢 | 中性 | 根据测算，华东电炉厂当前平电生产吨钢亏损95元/吨，谷电吨钢盈利23 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market indices all rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.29% to close at 4067.74 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.19% to 14127.11 points, the Sci-Tech 50 up by 1.39% to 1471.07 points, and the ChiNext Index gaining 1.86% to 3324.89 points [1][10] - Overall, 4851 stocks rose while 529 stocks fell, with 90 stocks remaining flat. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 25,442 billion yuan, a decrease of 405 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included Comprehensive, Defense and Military Industry, Machinery Equipment, Building Materials, and Steel, with increases of 5.63%, 4.42%, 3.98%, 3.52%, and 3.28% respectively. The only sector that declined was the Banking industry, which fell by 0.85% [1][15] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included Power Equipment Selection, TOPcon Battery, BC Battery, Rare Earth, Photovoltaics, Perovskite Battery, Optical Module (CPO), Silicon Energy, Excavators, Optical Communication, HJT Battery, Photovoltaic Glass, Rare Earth Permanent Magnet, Aircraft Carriers, and New Energy [2][12]

Group 1: Market Overview - In January, credit bond configuration sentiment was strong, leading to a significant compression of credit spreads, with 5-year credit spreads narrowing to the lowest point since 2025[12] - February's market outlook indicates a neutral to favorable pricing environment for bonds, with credit spreads expected to continue narrowing, particularly in the long-term credit segment[8] - The demand for credit bonds remains robust, especially for short-term products, driven by institutional investments and favorable monetary conditions[8] Group 2: Investment Strategies - For bonds with maturities of 5 years or less, focus on structural opportunities, particularly in the real estate sector, where sentiment is expected to improve[3] - Long-term credit bonds (over 5 years) are currently in a favorable positioning window, but investors should be cautious and take profits quickly as spreads compress[3] - Specific recommendations include targeting high liquidity bonds and those with favorable convexity, particularly in the 5.5-6 year and 7.5-8 year ranges[4] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the urban investment bond sector, low-grade bonds with maturities of 3 years or less still offer attractive yields, while medium to long-term bonds should focus on high-quality issuers[5] - The real estate bond market should concentrate on 1-2 year maturities, particularly for state-owned enterprises, as valuation recovery momentum is strong[5] - For coal bonds, short-term investments should be made cautiously, with a focus on high-rated issuers due to potential price fluctuations in the coal market[5]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's Safety Committee Office issued an urgent notice to enhance safety production measures before and after the Spring Festival, emphasizing the need to prevent major safety accidents and risks [1][5]. Group 1: Safety Production Measures - The notice highlights the need for various production and business units to manage risks effectively, especially during the Spring Festival when production activities may vary significantly [1][5]. - It calls for a comprehensive assessment of safety risks, particularly in light of the high traffic during the Spring Festival and adverse weather conditions [1][5]. Group 2: Fire Safety - The notice stresses the importance of identifying and rectifying fire hazards, particularly in areas with high concentrations of elderly residents [2][6]. - Regular fire emergency drills are mandated, and a detailed management approach is required for high-rise buildings and mixed-use properties to mitigate fire risks [2][6]. Group 3: Hazardous Materials and Fireworks - There is a focus on enhancing safety regulations across the entire supply chain of fireworks and hazardous chemicals, including production, transportation, and usage [3][7]. - The notice mandates strict enforcement against illegal sales of fireworks and emphasizes the need for companies to adhere to safety measures during winter [3][7]. Group 4: Other Key Industries - The notice calls for heightened safety oversight in industries such as steel, construction, and transportation, particularly during the winter season [4][8]. - It emphasizes the need for emergency preparedness and rapid response capabilities in high-risk areas, ensuring public safety during large gatherings and events [4][8].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the credit spread for bonds with maturities of 5 years or less is expected to compress further or maintain low volatility, with a focus on the influx of investment into long-duration credit bonds [2][3] - In January, the credit bond market showed strong sentiment, driven by the implementation of new fund fee regulations and strong institutional allocation, leading to a significant compression of credit spreads [12][15] - The report suggests that long-duration credit bonds are currently in a favorable positioning window, but trading should be executed with timely profit-taking [3][4] Group 2 - The strategy for credit bonds emphasizes identifying structural opportunities in the short to medium-term bonds while positioning for long-duration credits and ensuring timely exits [3][4] - The report indicates that the performance of credit bonds typically outperforms interest rate bonds, with credit spreads narrowing during February, influenced by seasonal factors and market dynamics [17][23] - The analysis of the secondary market shows a general decline in credit bond yields and a compression of credit spreads across various categories [8][15] Group 3 - The report discusses specific sector strategies, including opportunities in urban investment bonds, real estate bonds, coal bonds, and steel bonds, highlighting the importance of selecting high-quality issuers and considering market conditions [5][6] - It notes that the net financing of credit bonds has decreased year-on-year but increased month-on-month, with a rising proportion of long-duration issuances [9][22] - The report emphasizes the need for careful selection of bonds based on liquidity, convexity, and market conditions, particularly for long-duration credit bonds [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations in stock price and trading volume, with a recent increase of 2.12% on February 3, 2023, and a total market capitalization of 109.15 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Baosteel's stock price has increased by 1.26%, but it has seen declines of 5.12% over the last five trading days, 4.37% over the last 20 days, and 10.74% over the last 60 days [2] - As of February 3, 2023, the stock price is reported at 2.41 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 1.283 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.72% [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Baosteel achieved a revenue of 48.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 145.03% to 233 million yuan [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of December 19, 2025, the number of shareholders for Baosteel is 869,100, a decrease of 2.65% from the previous period, with an average of 36,105 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 2.73% [2] - The top circulating shareholder is China Securities Finance Corporation, holding 767 million shares, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited has reduced its holdings by 574 million shares [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比略降，产量在利润支撑下回升，库存继续累积。铁水产量变化不大，钢厂 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 利润总体一般，原料价格偏高抑制钢厂补库积极性。钢材供需层面矛盾有限，宏观情绪 阶段性偏强，中期维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有下降，绝对水平偏高。在产量较低，需求稳健的状 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 态下，冬储累库压力或不大。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对 行情形成压制，短期宏观氛围偏暖，中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 钢厂库存水平明显上升，补库还将持续，但幅度缩小，铁水环比小幅回落，铁矿基本面 | | ★ | 暂且观望 | 中性，价格窄幅运行。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，市场对第二轮提涨存在分歧。近期焦企亏损程度略有减轻，受生产 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 惯性短期焦企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略降。从需求来看，铁水产量变化不大，下 游维持按需采购。预计短期维持区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 国内煤矿供应量环比下 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shougang Corporation's stock price increased by 5.1% to 5.56 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 184 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.45%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 43.118 billion CNY [1] - Shougang Corporation, established on October 15, 1999, and listed on December 16, 1999, is located in Beijing and primarily engages in the production and sales of soft magnetic materials (electrical steel) and steel products [1] - The revenue composition of Shougang Corporation includes cold-rolled products at 41.42%, hot-rolled products at 39.28%, soft magnetic materials at 15.10%, and other products at 2.84%, with steel billets contributing 0.38% [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Shougang Corporation, a fund under Southern Fund holds a significant position, specifically the Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500), which reduced its holdings by 528,700 shares in the third quarter, now holding 22.6255 million shares, representing 0.35% of circulating shares [2] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) has a current scale of 144.69 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 7.7%, ranking 716 out of 5562 in its category, and a one-year return of 46.3%, ranking 1226 out of 4285 [2] - The fund manager of Southern CSI 500 ETF is Luo Wenjie, who has a tenure of 12 years and 291 days, with the fund's total asset size at 171.358 billion CNY and a best return of 187.93% during his tenure [3]