PMI 虽有回落，政策积极发力 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——4 月全国 PMI 数据解读 本报告导读： 外部冲击影响加大，4 月 PMI 边际回落。接下来，或加力推动既定政策 落地见效，通过增强内需主动力作用应对外部不确定性。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040074 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.30 2025-05-02 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 题 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 4 月，制造业 PMI 为 49.0%，比上月下降 1.5 个百分点；服 务业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点；建筑业商务 活动指数为 51.9%，比上月下降 1.5 个百分点。 关税扰动，制造业 PMI 边际回落。制造业 PMI 由升转降，主因贸易 摩擦导致的外部环境急剧变化。不过，以内销为主的制造业经营相 对稳定，对 PMI 有所支撑。考虑到国内积极政策节奏加快，我 ...

截至4月30日，今年以来已有约70家上市公司首次披露并购重组事件，远高于去年同期水平。市场人士认为，政策效果持续显现，并购重组将成为贯穿2025 年资本市场的"重头戏"，更多优质企业有望通过并购重组补链强链、做强做优。 近期，上市公司积极开展并购重组，4月共有23家上市公司首次披露并购重组事件。从行业看，科技创新领域并购重组代表性案例不断涌现，如阳光诺和拟 购买朗研生命100%股权、呈和科技拟收购映日科技不低于51%股权等。 4月上市公司首次披露并购重组事件情况 | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | ↓ 首次披露日期 | 童组事件 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 000695.SZ | 滨海能源 | 2025-04-30 | 滨海能源定增收购沧州 | | 2 | 300078.SZ | 思创医惠 | 2025-04-29 | 思创医惠出售医惠科技 | | 3 | 002868.SZ | *ST绿康 | 2025-04-26 | 绿康生化筹划重大资产 | | 4 | 688621.SH | 阳光诺和 | 2025-04-25 | 阳光诺和定增收购朗研 | | ...

金十数据5月1日讯，从海口海关获悉，海南自由贸易港"零关税"进口药品、医疗器械政策自2024年12月 25日在博鳌乐城国际医疗旅游先行区落地实施以来，已有10家医院通过政策享惠主体审核。海口海关共 监管"零关税"进口药品、医疗器械申报总货值6023.9万元人民币，减免税款818.7万元人民币。（新华 社） 海南自贸港"零关税"进口药品、医疗器械政策享惠货值突破6000万元 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains strong at 51.5%, showing resilience against external pressures, while overall manufacturing production index falls to 49.8% [3][4] - New export orders have significantly declined by 4.3% to 44.7%, reflecting the impact of tariffs on export orders [3][4] Group 2 - The April PMI for imports decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 43.4%, and the purchasing index fell by 5.5 percentage points to 46.3%, indicating cautious spending by enterprises amid uncertainties [5] - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4%, still above the critical point, but export orders dropped by 7.6 percentage points to 42.2% [6] - The construction sector continues to expand, with the civil engineering PMI rising by 6.4 percentage points to 60.9%, indicating accelerated project progress [6][7] Group 3 - The comprehensive PMI output index for April is at 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates overall expansion in production activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are reported at 49.8% and 50.4%, respectively, reflecting stable operations in manufacturing firms focused on domestic sales [7]

| 何宁（分析师） | 陈策（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | chence@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524020002 | 事件：2025 年 4 月官方制造业 PMI 49.0%，预期 49.8%，前值 50.5%；官方非制 造业 PMI 50.4%，前值 50.8%。 制造业：分项普遍走弱，外需与价格降幅较大 1、关税扰动初步显现，叠加此前抢出口抢生产形成的高基数，制造业 PMI 分 项普遍走弱。供需端，PMI 生产年内首次降至荣枯线下，外需降幅大于内需； 分行业来看，纺织、纺织服装服饰、金属制品等行业产需回落，农副食品加工、 食品及酒饮料精制茶、医药相对稍好。 2、工业原材料价格回落，预计 4 月 PPI 同比降幅扩大。4 月 PMI 原材料购进价 格与 PMI 出厂价格分别为 47.0%、44.8%，分别较前值回落了 2.8、3.1 个百分点。 根据高频指标预计 4 月 PPI 环比可能在-0.3%左右，同比在-2.5%左右。 2025 年 04 月 30 日 关税扰动的 2 个阶段 宏 ...

Core Insights - The fourth Jinhua Development Conference opened with the theme "New Era, New Jinhua, New Development," gathering nearly a thousand representatives from Jinhua and abroad to discuss development and future prospects [1] Economic Development - Jinhua has identified "port," "corridor," and "chain" as key areas for economic development, focusing on seizing opportunities, attracting projects, supporting enterprises, and boosting consumption [1] - In Q1, Jinhua's total foreign trade import and export value reached 216.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, with exports at 192.19 billion, up 14.3%, contributing 24.8% to Zhejiang's export growth [4] Logistics and Infrastructure - A new international logistics solution was established with the launch of the first export freight train from Yiwu West Station to Central Asia, enhancing Jinhua's logistics capabilities [3] - Jinhua is positioned as a logistics hub with 25 routes for the Zhejiang-Europe train, connecting over 50 countries and 160 cities [3] Innovation and Talent - Jinhua aims to strengthen its innovation capabilities by enhancing the "Zhongzhou Science and Technology Innovation Corridor," which has shown significant progress in attracting high-level talent and fostering innovation [5][6] - The corridor has gathered 50% of the national high-tech enterprises and 90% of provincial-level innovation platforms in Jinhua, indicating its growing influence on regional development [6] Industrial Development - Jinhua is transitioning from a block economy to a modern industrial cluster, focusing on ten key industrial chains to enhance productivity and competitiveness [7] - The local government aims for these ten key industrial chains to achieve an industrial output value of over 520 billion, with a growth rate of over 7% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, highlighting the performance of different sectors and the outlook for corporate earnings in the coming years. It emphasizes the importance of valuation and earnings growth as key drivers for market movements. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index saw slight declines, while small-cap stocks experienced gains [2][3] - Value-style stocks, such as banks, faced significant declines, whereas growth-style stocks saw increases [4] - Hong Kong stocks overall rose, with technology stocks leading the gains [5][6] Valuation Insights - After a brief decline in early April, the market has rebounded, returning to a normal valuation range [7] - Many stocks are currently undervalued, suggesting limited downside potential [10] - Institutional investors, including state-owned entities, tend to buy heavily when the market dips, further reducing downside risk [11] Earnings Growth Outlook - For 2024, A-share market earnings are expected to decline slightly by about 2% compared to 2023 [19] - In the first quarter of 2025, earnings are projected to grow by approximately 3-4%, marking the first annual improvement since 2022 [20] - Sectors such as internet and high-end manufacturing are expected to maintain stable earnings growth [21] Sector-Specific Performance - Traditional industries like finance, consumption, and utilities have seen modest earnings growth in recent years [22] - The pharmaceutical sector, which experienced significant growth during the pandemic, is expected to recover in late 2024 and early 2025 [23] - The real estate sector continues to struggle with declining earnings, although the rate of decline is slowing [23] Economic Factors and Market Dynamics - The article notes potential uncertainties, such as the impact of Trump's tariff policies on export-oriented industries [24] - If earnings growth continues in the second and third quarters, the economy may gradually recover from its current low phase, opening up more market upside [24] - Historically, strong economic years have coincided with market peaks, suggesting that low periods may offer better valuation opportunities [24] Investment Tools and Features - A new feature in the "Today Star" mini-program allows users to view real-time star ratings and set custom alerts for specific star levels [25][26][28]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4月制造业PMI环比下行1.5个点至49.0，环比降幅明显大于2014年以来季节性均值的0.8个点。中观景气面同步放缓，位于扩张区间的行业个数由前值 的8个减少至5个。前期公布的EPMI、BCI指数和PMI指向一致，可以相互印证，显示外需的影响在初步形成。 第二， 从分项指标看，从出口订单向生产、价格、就业的传递链条较为清晰。（1）出口订单环比下行4.3个点至44.7，绝对景气水平为过去10年仅好于2020 和2022年4月的偏低水平，显示了关税落地对外需的影响；（2）企业生产量指标4月环比下降2.8个点，且代表企业未来生产意愿的采购指标环比下降5.5个 点，是所有分项指标中环比降幅最大的，显示了企业在外部冲击下主动调整当期和未来生产的表现；（3）购进和出厂价格环比分别下降2.8和3.1个点，尤其是 出厂价格环比降幅创下过去8个月新低，3月PPI环比已经下降0.4个点的背景下，输入性价格下跌过程尚未结束；（4）雇员指标环比下降0.3个点，这一指标已 经环比连续2个月放缓。 第三， 哪些行业相对来说受影响较 ...

布列塔尼大区是法国重要的出口贸易大区，航空、汽车和医药产业在对外贸易中占有重要地位。近期，随着美国新关税政策的落地实施，布列塔尼地区相关 行业的生产和供应链都面临着较大的不确定性和挑战。 0:00 布列塔尼大区位于法国西部，拥有丰富的海洋资源和悠久的农业传统。依托出口型经济，布列塔尼在全球和区域经贸中一直发挥着重要作用。然而，在如今 全球经济不确定性增加的情况下，当地政府正努力评估企业受到的影响，与企业携手渡过难关。 布列塔尼大区主席 洛伊格·谢奈-吉拉尔：国际交流与合作需要平衡，当前受美国关税政策变化的影响，全球局势变得有些混乱。 布列塔尼大区事务部门经济发展总监加埃尔·盖冈：关税不确定性令我们担忧，因为我们是一个出口导向型地区，谈到供应链问题，确实相当不稳定。这与 我们多年来致力于打造降低关税，贸易便利化的环境背道而驰。我们正与布列塔尼的所有企业密切合作，尽力在区域层面应对，以评估这些变化对企业的影 响，并尽可能减少负面影响。政策的不透明性和反复无常，确实让我们感到困扰。 布列塔尼大区看好与中企合作前景 推动共赢 在当前全球供应链波动和国际贸易格局重塑的背景下，法国布列塔尼大区看好与中国企业合作前景，积极 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 公司点评 买入/维持 人福医药(600079) 昨收盘:20.82 医药 人福医药：核心业务稳健增长，开启战略协同发展新征程 走势比较 (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/4/30 24/7/11 24/9/21 24/12/2 25/2/12 25/4/25 股票数据 2025 年一季度受医疗器械业务收缩影响，公司实现营业收入 61.37 亿 元，同比下降 3.61%；归母净利润 5.40 亿元，同比增长 11.09%。扣非净 利润 5.31 亿元，同比增长 14.35%。 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 16.32/15.43 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 339.83/321.29 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 25.9/15.68 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<人福医药：大股东重整稳步推进， 高壁垒麻醉药增长稳健>>--2024-11- 29 <<人福医药：大股东重整取得进展， 核心业务稳健增长>>--2024-11-05 <<麻醉业务稳健增长，"归核聚焦"降 本增效>>--2023-11-03 ...