Industry Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains an "overweight" rating [49] - The real estate industry maintains an "overweight" rating [57] - The insurance industry maintains an "overweight" rating [86] Core Viewpoints - Global risk preferences have significantly declined, leading to asset price fluctuations and panic selling. However, China's capital market is expected to recover in valuation and experience significant development, with A/H shares, industrial commodities recommended for tactical overweight, and US dollars for tactical underweight [20][21] - The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December has risen significantly, and the market is highly concerned about the Fed's monetary policy. The Chinese economy is expected to gradually stabilize, and the policies of various industries will promote the improvement of industry fundamentals [8][15] - The technology theme is expected to return to the main line, and themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are worthy of attention [29] Summary by Directory Macro Reports - **Global Asset Performance**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, major global stock markets rose, commodities generally increased, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar [5] - **US Economy**: Manufacturing new orders increased, housing price growth slowed, and consumer growth also slowed [6] - **European Economy**: Business confidence in the eurozone stabilized [7] - **Overseas Policies**: The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December rose to 80%, the ECB President said the current interest rate was appropriate, the UK's budget faced a "technical leak", Japan's bond - issuing plan tilted towards short - term bonds, and the BOJ's December interest rate hike expectation did not increase [8][9][10] - **China's Economy**: Consumption, investment, and production showed structural differentiation. The manufacturing PMI marginally rebounded due to improved external demand, and the construction industry's business activity index also increased marginally, but the service industry's declined [13][15] Asset Allocation Report - **A/H Shares**: Tactical overweight is maintained due to multiple factors supporting China's equity performance, such as the release of micro - trading risks and the approaching policy window [20] - **Treasury Bonds**: Tactical standard allocation is maintained because of the imbalance between financing demand and credit supply, and the central bank may take action to maintain market liquidity [20] - **Industrial Commodities**: Tactical overweight is maintained as industrial metals like copper may face supply - demand imbalances, with strong demand and increasing development costs [21] - **US Dollars**: Tactical underweight is maintained as the Fed's policy adjustment and the marginal convergence of the US economy reduce the dollar's allocation value [21] Strategy Reports - **Asset Overview**: Global risk preferences recovered, stocks and commodities rose, silver and copper prices hit record highs, and the dollar index weakened. A - shares and other major global stock markets generally rebounded, and the bond market showed a pattern of a bearish steepening in China and a bullish steepening in the US [23][24][25] - **Theme Analysis**: The trading heat of hot themes was stable, the technology theme returned, and funds flowed into AI and communication. Themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are recommended [29] Overseas Strategy Reports - **Fund Flows**: North - bound funds may have a small net inflow, and south - bound funds' inflow into e - commerce and retail reached a new high since October. Overseas funds showed different flow trends in different markets [36][37] - **Policy Tracking**: Domestic policies covered macro, industrial, and local aspects, and overseas policies included diplomatic, economic, and interest - rate - related policies [39][40][43] Industry Reports - **Steel**: Demand is expected to stabilize, supply is expected to contract, and the industry's fundamentals are expected to gradually recover. Companies with product and cost advantages are recommended [45][48][49] - **Utilities**: The proportion of long - term contract electricity in 2026 is expected to decrease, electricity prices may have limited declines, and the industry's valuation is expected to improve [52] - **Real Estate**: The transaction volume in large and medium - sized cities rebounded, and the spot - housing sales are beneficial to the industry's healthy development [57][58] - **Food and Beverage**: CPI data has boosted the sector's expectations. Different sub - sectors such as liquor, beverages, and snacks have corresponding investment recommendations [62] - **Robotics**: Overseas and domestic companies have made progress in the field of humanoid robots, and investment in this field is active. Core component suppliers and整机 manufacturers are recommended [67][68][69] - **Machinery**: The weekly operating load rate of industrial gases increased, and important projects such as the second - phase of the Huanneng Jintan salt - cavern compressed - air energy - storage project advanced. Related companies are recommended [73][74][75] - **Insurance**: In October 2025, the growth rate of life and property insurance premiums declined marginally. The industry is optimistic about the growth of the life insurance's new business value (NBV) in the 2026 opening season and the continuous improvement of the property insurance's combined ratio (COR) [83][84][85] - **Agriculture**: Corn prices rose, the pet food market showed different trends at home and abroad, and the pig - breeding industry needs to pay attention to the epidemic and demand. Related companies in different sub - sectors are recommended [88][89][90] - **Textile and Apparel**: The US clothing retail industry showed growth, and the overseas K - shaped consumption trend continued. Export - manufacturing and brand - end companies are recommended [93][94][95]

Core Insights - A total of 21 buy ratings were issued by institutions today, covering 20 stocks, with Guizhou Moutai receiving the highest attention with two buy ratings [1][2] - Among the rated stocks, 11 provided future target prices, with 7 stocks showing an upside potential exceeding 20%, led by Guizhou Moutai with a target price of 2600.00 CNY, indicating a potential increase of 79.56% [1][2] - The average increase for stocks with buy ratings today was 0.82%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with notable gainers including Hu Guang Co., Sophia, and Shenzhou Digital [1][2] Company Summaries - Guizhou Moutai received a strong buy rating from Huachuang Securities with a target price of 2600.00 CNY, compared to the latest closing price of 1448.00 CNY [2] - Dongpeng Beverage also received a strong buy rating from Huachuang Securities with a target price of 340.00 CNY, latest closing at 269.03 CNY [2] - Shenzhou Digital was rated as "Increase" by Guotai Junan with a target price of 55.97 CNY, latest closing at 41.27 CNY [2] - Hu Guang Co. was rated as "Strong Buy" by Huachuang Securities with a target price of 37.90 CNY, latest closing at 31.30 CNY [2] - Other notable stocks include Jerry Shares, which was rated "Increase" with a target price of 73.20 CNY, latest closing at 62.07 CNY [2] Industry Insights - The basic chemical industry was the most favored, with stocks like Huhua Co. and Chuanheng Co. receiving buy ratings [2] - The computer and automotive industries also attracted attention, with two stocks each receiving buy ratings [2]

突然我就有点感慨， 到底是谁在说消费降级呢。 最近我家附近一个商场开业，去逛了下。 真的非常多人。 连餐饮店，都是要排队拿号的那种。 我知道肯定有人说啊，这属于个别现象，或者是现在很多人只是凑热闹，人均消费的少。 所以我只是想分享一下我的感受啊。 我们每一个人都是一个个体，我们能感受到的变化，本质上就是经济的一小个缩影。 我觉得现在的消费降级，不是说大家就没钱消费了，而是大家的消费，变得更加 追加质价比了。 钱，我可以花，东西我可以买，但你不能拿我当冤大头，它得值得这个价，这才是现在消费的主流。 在我们国家，基本的生存成本是很低的。 我前天路过我们家的一个超市，门口有土豆，我看了一眼价格，1.68一斤。 青菜，3-4块一斤，猪肉大概在12-13一斤左右吧，有时候晚上超市打折的话，我记得更低。 基础的蛋白质，鸡蛋牛奶的价格，一个月也不用花超300元 你说买白色家庭，洗衣机、空调、冰箱，我们的价格几百到几千不等。 你不追求品质的话，基本的生存完全没问题。 现在的中国，可以说是中华上下五千年，甚至是放到全世界，也是对平民最友好的一个国度了。 没有饥荒战乱，也不像非洲美洲等军阀黑帮横行，普通人晚上连门都不敢出，普通人 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月01日 主动量化策略周报 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略 12 月配置建议： 关注钢铁、银行、建筑、公用事业、电新等行业 核心观点 金融工程周报 本报告对 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略的样本外表现进行跟踪，从多个维度解析 行业景气度情况并最终给出月度行业配置建议，以供投资者参考。 行业轮动因子表现 上月以来（20251103-20251128），超大单资金净流入金额占比和券商金股 行业变动因子表现较好，SUE、PB 和单季度 ROE 增速因子表现较差； 今年以来（20250102-20251128），公募重仓股动量、SUE 和分析师认可 度和因子表现较好，而成交量调节动量、公募基金持仓行业变动和超大单资 金净流入金额占比因子表现较差。 上月组合绩效回顾 上月以来（20251103-20251128），行业轮动组合收益率-1.09%，同期中 信一级行业等权指数收益率-1.16%，组合超额收益率 0.08%。 今年以来（20250102-20251031），行业轮动组合收益率 20.48%，同期中 信一级行业等权指数收益率 20.20%，组合超额收益率 0.28%。 本月组合推荐情 ...

然而，这一需求高峰正与建筑行业长期人才短缺形成冲突。 大型数据中心建设往往需要多年才能竣工，需要密集的劳动力支持：现场工人要浇筑混凝土墙体和地 基、铺设电气面板线路，并安装发电机和冷却系统，为未来海量数据（603138）的运行打造稳定环境。 美国建筑商与承包商协会(ABC)估计，目前建筑行业工人缺口约有43.9万，尤其是在电气、管道等技能 岗位。 同时，数据中心承建企业的订单积压周期平均达到10.9个月，高于行业平均水平。 巨大需求推高了技术岗位的薪酬，不少工人迎来了职业生涯的高光时期。从电工到项目经理，转入数据 中心建设领域的工人薪资普遍上涨了25%至30%。 随着人工智能(AI)投资在美国持续升温，数据中心正以前所未有的速度扩张。 目前，亚马逊、谷歌和微软等科技巨头运营着522个数据中心，另有411个正在建设当中。美国建筑商与 承包商协会(ABC)首席经济学家阿尼班.巴苏将这场建设潮形容为"人工智能世界的军备竞赛"。 在俄勒冈州赫米斯顿，60岁的电气安全主管马克.本纳几乎每天凌晨就抵达工地。他负责确保电气系统 安全。凭借数据中心项目高耗能、对电气知识要求极高的特性，本纳的年收入达到22.5万美元，其中还 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月01日 主动量化策略周报 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略 12 月配置建议： 关注钢铁、银行、建筑、公用事业、电新等行业 本报告对 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略的样本外表现进行跟踪，从多个维度解析 行业景气度情况并最终给出月度行业配置建议，以供投资者参考。 行业轮动因子表现 上月以来（20251103-20251128），超大单资金净流入金额占比和券商金股 行业变动因子表现较好，SUE、PB 和单季度 ROE 增速因子表现较差； 今年以来（20250102-20251128），公募重仓股动量、SUE 和分析师认可 度和因子表现较好，而成交量调节动量、公募基金持仓行业变动和超大单资 金净流入金额占比因子表现较差。 上月组合绩效回顾 上月以来（20251103-20251128），行业轮动组合收益率-1.09%，同期中 信一级行业等权指数收益率-1.16%，组合超额收益率 0.08%。 今年以来（20250102-20251031），行业轮动组合收益率 20.48%，同期中 信一级行业等权指数收益率 20.20%，组合超额收益率 0.28%。 本月组合推荐情况 我们借鉴 CANSL ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [5] - The report notes that the liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises has improved slightly, with the BCI index at 52.50, indicating a positive trend [11] - The report indicates that the total inventory of five major steel varieties is at its highest level for the same period in four years, suggesting potential supply pressures [22] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises in November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.0 percentage points in October 2025, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [11] - The current price of London gold is $4,219 per ounce, reflecting a 3.80% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The total inventory of five major steel varieties is at a four-year high [22] - The price changes for key materials include rebar up 0.93% and cement price index up 0.22% [22] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 88%, down 0.6 percentage points [43] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year median [3] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down 0.25% and copper up 1.77% [3] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is 69.19%, down 1.88 percentage points [3] Sub-sectors - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 339,000 yuan per ton, up 3.04% from last week [3] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,430 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.33% increase [3] - The price of electrolytic copper is 87,480 yuan per ton, up 1.77% [3] Price Ratio Relationships - The gold-silver price ratio has reached its lowest level since August 2024, at 78 times [4] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.08 this week [4] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 40 yuan per ton [4] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1,121.80 points, down 0.09% [4] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.90%, up 0.70 percentage points [4] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.64%, with industrial metals performing best at +3.46% [5] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.53, with a historical high of 0.82 [5] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is likely to recover, leading to a potential PB ratio recovery [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the eighth consecutive month below the threshold line[4] - The new orders index and finished goods inventory index for November are 49.2% and 47.3%, respectively, with new orders increasing by 0.4 percentage points and finished goods inventory decreasing by 0.8 percentage points[5] - The "production momentum" index (new orders - finished goods inventory) is at 1.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production momentum[5] Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Dynamics - Manufacturing firms are actively reducing inventory, with the finished goods inventory index significantly below seasonal levels[15] - The raw material purchase price index is at 53.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 48.2%, indicating a widening price gap that compresses profit margins[20] - The "raw material purchase price - factory price" gap is 5.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, further squeezing profit margins for enterprises[20] Group 3: Export and Demand Trends - The new export orders index is at 47.6%, showing a recovery of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, although still below the threshold line[9] - The recent trade agreement between China and the U.S. has reduced trade friction, contributing to improved export conditions[9] - The forecast for U.S. holiday shopping indicates a record participation of 187 million people, which may positively impact demand for exports[9] Group 4: Sectoral Performance and Risks - Small enterprises show the fastest recovery, with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, reaching the highest level in five years[28] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating a contraction in the sector[37] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations[41]

区域协调发展是中国式现代化的内在要求。"十五五"规划建议对促进区域协调发展作出重要部署。 区域协调发展也是世界性、历史性难题。受访专家学者认为，广东"百千万工程"这一写在岭南大地的新实践，以地方的鲜活案例彰显了我国的制 度优势。 "以人民为中心"，解答难题的"开锁之匙" 事实证明，只有坚持以人民为中心的崇高追求，并拥有政治魄力和战略定力，才有可能解决协调发展难题。广东践行"千万工程"理念，实施"百千 万工程"3年来，通过政府有形之手来弥补市场缺陷，推动区域协调发展取得初步成效。 在记者的调研中，有的专家和干部一开始对于"百千万工程"也是心存疑虑的：明明把钱投到珠三角效率更高、产出更大，可能增长也更快，干嘛 要放到粤东西北去？放着快钱容易钱不挣，非干苦活找苦吃？ 基层的变化提供了答案。汕尾市副市长周小壮介绍，随着环境的提升，最近3年每年到汕尾过夜旅游的人数从七八百万增长到2000多万，不仅珠三 角，来自港澳甚至国外的游客也越来越多。 在汕头采访时，一名汕尾企业家告诉记者，以前有些汕尾人在外工作时，只说"我是潮汕的"而不说我是汕尾的，更别提带朋友回老家了。而现在 到了周末，好多人呼朋唤友、成群结伴回家乡。 一名在 ...

本文字数：1710，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 秦新安 "防止形成规模性返乡滞乡"——近日，农业农村部一则会议新闻中的这一表述，引发社会广泛关注。 部分自媒体将其曲解为"不准进城务工人员返乡"，制造了无端的焦虑。 事实上，这一表述源于"全国乡村工匠培育暨脱贫人口务工就业'两稳一防'（稳定脱贫人口务工规模、 稳定脱贫人口务工收入，防止因失业导致规模性返贫）工作会议"，会议主要精神的完整表述是："要 继续实施好返乡回流脱贫人口促就业专项行动，防止形成规模性返乡滞乡。"可见会议针对的只是脱 贫人口，而非所有农民工，并且施政目的是"促就业"而不是"阻流动"。 既然是"防止"，说明脱贫人口"规模性返乡滞乡"现象尚未发生。但有关部门提出这一要求，应该是关 注到了发生这种现象的苗头或隐患。这种前瞻意识和能力值得肯定。不管该现象是否会发生，把准备 工作做在前面，总比临时抱佛脚好。 2025.11. 30 一是加强对农民工的职业技能培训，帮助他们掌握新技术、新工种所需的能力，提高在新兴产业中的 求职竞争力。 2025年以来，重庆和山东两地开展劳务协作，其中巫溪县立足本地十大特色产业，联 合泰安企业和培训机构，开展订 ...